Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for SOULIK-18
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 42.0N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 42.0N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.6N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 46.7N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 42.6N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT EXTRATROPICAL
FEATURES, SUCH AS A DECOUPLED AND EXPOSED LLCC, COMMA-SHAPED
ASYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A SUBTROPICAL FIX INTENSITY OF T1.5 (30-35
KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (35 KNOTS). THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO THE WARM-CORE
TROPICAL STRUCTURE, WITH HIGH VWS, LOW SSTS (25 DEG C). THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY TRANSITING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPELTE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHILE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 44
NAME LOW FROM 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 41.4N 133.5E
MOVEMENT NE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 41N 134E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 41.0N 132.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 44.2N 139.8E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 037
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 41.0N 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 36 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 41.0N 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 43.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 44.7N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 45.8N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 41.6N 133.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
NORTHEAST OF YONGSAN AIN , HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) FOR FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM (WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 40.1N, 131.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 40.1N 131.8E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 42.0N 135.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 43.6N 138.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 40.1N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 43.6N 138.8E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 38.9N 130.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 42.8N 138.2E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 036
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 38.1N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.1N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 40.3N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.2N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.7N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 44.9N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 38.7N 131.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF OSAN AB , HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM (WTPN31 PGTW). FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 38.1N, 130.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS AND
LOW TCHP. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 38.1N 130.2E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 40.7N 133.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 42.7N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 38.1N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 42.7N 137.7E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 41
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240300UTC 38.2N 129.4E
MOVEMENT NE 19KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 240900UTC 39.4N 131.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT
12HR
POSITION 241500UTC 40.7N 133.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 242100UTC 42.1N 137.3E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 250300UTC 43.2N 140.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 37.7N 129.6E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 40.6N 132.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 42.8N 137.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 37.7N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 42.8N 137.0E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 035
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 37.2N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 40.3N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.4N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 45.6N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 38.0N 129.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM EAST OF
OSAN AB , HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 37.5N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 40
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240000UTC 37.5N 128.6E
MOVEMENT NE 28KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 240600UTC 38.7N 130.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT
12HR
POSITION 241200UTC 40.1N 132.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 241800UTC 41.4N 135.5E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 250000UTC 42.7N 138.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 37.5N 128.9E KOREA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 40.5N 132.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 42.7N 136.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 37.5N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 42.7N 136.4E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 232100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 39
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 232100UTC 36.3N 127.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 240300UTC 37.8N 129.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT
12HR
POSITION 240900UTC 39.1N 131.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 241500UTC 40.6N 133.4E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 242100UTC 41.8N 136.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
30HR
POSITION 250300UTC 42.7N 139.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 36.5N 127.8E KOREA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 39.6N 131.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 42.0N 134.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 36.5N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 42.0N 134.9E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251800UTC 44.8N 141.9E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 034
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 35.7N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 38.6N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 41.2N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 43.1N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 45.0N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 36.4N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 35.4N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, LAND AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 35.4N 126.9E KOREA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 38.7N 130.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 41.4N 133.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 44.8N 141.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 35.4N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 41.4N 133.4E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251800UTC 44.8N 141.9E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 37
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231500UTC 34.8N 126.7E
MOVEMENT NE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 232100UTC 36.3N 127.7E WITHIN 10NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 240300UTC 37.8N 129.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 240900UTC 39.2N 131.1E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 241500UTC 40.6N 133.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
30HR
POSITION 242100UTC 41.7N 136.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 34.7N 126.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 37.8N 129.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 40.7N 132.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 34.7N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 40.7N 132.7E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 251200UTC 44.1N 140.5E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 34.6N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.1N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 40.2N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 44.5N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 126.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 34.2N, 126.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 34.2N, 126.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 36
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231200UTC 34.3N 126.1E
MOVEMENT ENE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 231800UTC 35.8N 127.2E WITHIN 10NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 240000UTC 37.3N 128.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 240600UTC 38.7N 130.2E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 241200UTC 40.0N 132.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
30HR
POSITION 241800UTC 41.2N 134.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 34.2N 126.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 37.0N 128.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 40.1N 131.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 44.1N 140.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 34.2N 126.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 40.1N 131.8E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 251200UTC 44.1N 140.5E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 35
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230900UTC 34.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 231500UTC 35.3N 126.3E WITHIN 10NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
12HR
POSITION 232100UTC 36.5N 127.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 240300UTC 37.6N 128.5E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 240900UTC 38.7N 130.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
30HR
POSITION 241500UTC 40.1N 132.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 34.0N 126.0E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 36.3N 128.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 39.5N 131.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 34.0N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 39.5N 131.2E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 250600UTC 43.9N 138.1E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 032
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 33.6N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 35.8N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 38.8N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 41.7N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.0N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 125.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 34
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230600UTC 33.6N 125.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 231200UTC 34.7N 126.0E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
12HR
POSITION 231800UTC 35.6N 126.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 240000UTC 37.0N 127.8E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 240600UTC 38.0N 129.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
30HR
POSITION 241200UTC 39.0N 130.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 33.6N 125.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 35.4N 127.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 38.7N 130.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 43.9N 138.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 33.6N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 38.7N 130.3E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250600UTC 43.9N 138.1E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230300UTC 33.4N 125.6E
MOVEMENT N 2KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 230900UTC 34.4N 125.6E WITHIN 10NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
12HR
POSITION 231500UTC 35.4N 126.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 232100UTC 36.4N 127.1E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 240300UTC 37.6N 128.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 240900UTC 38.5N 129.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 33.2N 125.4E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 34.7N 126.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 37.7N 129.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 33.2N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 37.7N 129.2E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 250000UTC 43.1N 136.1E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 33.1N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.4N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 40.4N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 45.2N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 125.2E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z,
232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 33.0N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, LOW
TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 33.0N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, LOW
TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 32
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230000UTC 33.3N 125.6E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 230600UTC 34.2N 125.6E WITHIN 10NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
12HR
POSITION 231200UTC 35.3N 125.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
18HR
POSITION 231800UTC 36.2N 126.8E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 240000UTC 37.1N 127.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 240600UTC 38.0N 129.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 33.0N 125.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 34.2N 126.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 37.1N 128.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 43.1N 136.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 33.0N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 37.1N 128.6E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250000UTC 43.1N 136.1E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 222100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 222100UTC 33.1N 125.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230900UTC 34.8N 125.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 232100UTC 37.0N 127.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 240900UTC 38.8N 129.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 242100UTC 40.9N 132.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 250900UTC 43.0N 135.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 33.0N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 34.3N 126.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 36.6N 128.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 33.0N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 36.6N 128.0E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 241800UTC 41.7N 133.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 251800UTC 45.3N 140.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 32.6N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.6N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 34.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.2N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 41.8N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 45.0N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 125.7E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z
AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 32.7N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOW SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 32.7N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOW SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 975 HPA
AT 32.7N 125.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 34.2N 125.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 35.9N 126.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 41.7N 133.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 45.3N 140.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 32.7N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 35.9N 126.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 241800UTC 41.7N 133.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 251800UTC 45.3N 140.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221500UTC 32.3N 126.0E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230300UTC 34.3N 125.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 231500UTC 36.7N 126.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 240300UTC 39.0N 128.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 241500UTC 41.2N 130.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
60HR
POSITION 250300UTC 43.5N 132.5E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 970 HPA
AT 32.3N 126.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 33.7N 125.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 35.1N 126.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 32.3N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 35.1N 126.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 241200UTC 39.7N 130.3E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 251200UTC 44.5N 138.7E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 31.7N 126.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.7N 126.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 33.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.5N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 40.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 45.1N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 126.1E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221200UTC 31.9N 126.3E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230000UTC 33.8N 125.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 231200UTC 36.1N 126.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 240000UTC 38.4N 127.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 241200UTC 40.7N 129.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
60HR
POSITION 250000UTC 43.0N 132.0E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 965 HPA
AT 31.9N 126.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 33.3N 125.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 34.6N 125.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 39.7N 130.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 44.5N 138.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 31.9N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 34.6N 125.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241200UTC 39.7N 130.3E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 251200UTC 44.5N 138.7E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220900UTC 31.5N 126.6E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 222100UTC 33.2N 125.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 230900UTC 35.5N 125.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 232100UTC 37.8N 127.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 240900UTC 40.1N 129.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
60HR
POSITION 242100UTC 42.3N 131.4E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 965 HPA
AT 31.5N 126.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 32.8N 125.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 34.2N 125.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 31.5N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 34.2N 125.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 240600UTC 38.1N 128.6E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 250600UTC 43.3N 132.8E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 31.1N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 32.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 34.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.0N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.2N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 126.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT48. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220600UTC 31.1N 126.9E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 221800UTC 32.7N 125.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 230600UTC 34.9N 125.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 231800UTC 37.3N 127.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 240600UTC 39.5N 128.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
60HR
POSITION 241800UTC 41.8N 130.9E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 31.1N 126.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 32.5N 125.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 33.8N 125.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 38.1N 128.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 43.3N 132.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 31.1N 126.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 33.8N 125.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 240600UTC 38.1N 128.6E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 250600UTC 43.3N 132.8E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 30.6N 127.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.1N 125.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 33.7N 124.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 30.6N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 33.7N 124.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 240000UTC 37.4N 126.2E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 250000UTC 43.7N 128.1E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 31.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 33.4N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 35.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.9N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 43.6N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 127.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 30.3N, 127.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT60. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220000UTC 30.3N 127.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 221200UTC 31.8N 126.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 230000UTC 33.8N 125.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 231200UTC 36.1N 126.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 240000UTC 38.4N 128.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
60HR
POSITION 241200UTC 40.6N 129.8E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 30.3N 127.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 31.8N 125.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 33.3N 125.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 37.4N 126.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 43.7N 128.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 30.3N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 33.3N 125.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 240000UTC 37.4N 126.2E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 250000UTC 43.7N 128.1E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 30.0N 128.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 31.5N 126.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 33.0N 125.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 30.0N 128.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 33.0N 125.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 231800UTC 36.4N 125.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 241800UTC 42.9N 127.6E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 29.8N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 31.2N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 33.0N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 35.3N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 37.6N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 43.1N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 128.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 211800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 128.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 128.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 211800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 211800UTC 29.8N 128.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 220600UTC 31.1N 126.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 221800UTC 32.9N 125.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 230600UTC 35.0N 125.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 231800UTC 37.5N 127.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
60HR
POSITION 240600UTC 39.7N 128.9E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 29.7N 128.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 31.1N 126.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 32.5N 125.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 36.4N 125.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 42.9N 127.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 29.7N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 32.5N 125.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 231800UTC 36.4N 125.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 241800UTC 42.9N 127.6E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 29.3N 129.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 30.7N 127.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 32.2N 125.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 29.3N 129.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 32.2N 125.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 231200UTC 35.7N 125.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 241200UTC 42.0N 126.7E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 29.2N 129.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 129.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 32.5N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 34.3N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 36.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 42.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 46.5N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 129.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 211200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 29.0N, 129.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 29.0N, 129.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 211200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 211200UTC 29.1N 129.9E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 220000UTC 30.4N 127.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 221200UTC 32.0N 125.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 230000UTC 34.1N 125.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 231200UTC 36.4N 126.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
60HR
POSITION 240000UTC 38.7N 128.0E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 29.0N 129.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 30.3N 127.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 31.9N 126.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 35.7N 125.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 42.0N 126.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 29.0N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 31.9N 126.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231200UTC 35.7N 125.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241200UTC 42.0N 126.7E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 29.0N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 31.9N 126.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231200UTC 35.7N 125.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241200UTC 42.0N 126.7E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 28.8N 130.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 30.1N 128.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 31.6N 126.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 28.8N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 31.6N 126.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 230600UTC 34.8N 125.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 240600UTC 41.2N 126.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 131.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE EAST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 210600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 210600UTC 28.4N 131.1E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 220600UTC 31.0N 125.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 230600UTC 35.2N 125.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 240600UTC 39.7N 128.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 250600UTC 43.1N 132.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 131.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 29.8N 128.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 31.2N 126.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 34.8N 125.3E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 41.2N 126.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 28.4N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 31.2N 126.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 230600UTC 34.8N 125.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 240600UTC 41.2N 126.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 250600UTC 45.5N 129.7E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 260600UTC 47.6N 134.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 10KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 28.4N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 31.2N 126.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 230600UTC 34.8N 125.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 240600UTC 41.2N 126.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 28.0N 131.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 29.3N 129.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 30.6N 127.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 28.0N 131.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 30.6N 127.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 230000UTC 33.7N 125.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 240000UTC 39.0N 127.7E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 27.7N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 29.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 32.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 35.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 39.8N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 44.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 131.7E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 132.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE EYE IN ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 210000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 210000UTC 27.6N 132.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 220000UTC 30.1N 126.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 230000UTC 34.1N 125.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 240000UTC 38.6N 128.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 250000UTC 42.5N 131.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 27.6N 132.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 29.0N 130.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 30.4N 127.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 33.7N 125.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 39.0N 127.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 27.6N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 30.4N 127.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 230000UTC 33.7N 125.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240000UTC 39.0N 127.7E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 250000UTC 43.1N 130.8E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 260000UTC 46.1N 134.1E 350NM 70.
MOVE NE 10KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 27.6N 132.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 30.4N 127.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 230000UTC 33.7N 125.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240000UTC 39.0N 127.7E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 27.3N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 28.7N 130.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 30.1N 128.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 27.3N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 30.1N 128.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 221800UTC 33.3N 125.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 231800UTC 38.4N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 29.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 31.7N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 33.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 38.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 43.1N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 132.8E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST OF KADENA
AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 133.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 950 HPA
AT 27.0N 133.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 28.4N 131.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 29.9N 128.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 33.3N 125.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 38.4N 126.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 27.0N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 29.9N 128.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221800UTC 33.3N 125.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 231800UTC 38.4N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 241800UTC 42.8N 129.7E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 251800UTC 47.1N 134.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 13KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 27.0N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 29.9N 128.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221800UTC 33.3N 125.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 231800UTC 38.4N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 26.7N 134.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 28.0N 131.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 29.4N 129.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 26.7N 134.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 29.4N 129.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 221200UTC 32.4N 125.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 231200UTC 37.5N 126.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 26.4N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 29.0N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 32.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 37.2N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 42.7N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 134.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF KADENA
AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 134.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 201200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 201200UTC 26.5N 134.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 211200UTC 29.1N 129.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 221200UTC 32.6N 126.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 231200UTC 37.4N 127.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 241200UTC 43.5N 132.4E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 251200UTC 48.2N 135.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 26.4N 134.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 27.5N 132.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 28.9N 129.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 32.4N 125.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 37.5N 126.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 26.4N 134.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 28.9N 129.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221200UTC 32.4N 125.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 231200UTC 37.5N 126.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 241200UTC 42.6N 128.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
120HF 251200UTC 47.4N 133.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 26.4N 134.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 28.9N 129.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221200UTC 32.4N 125.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 231200UTC 37.5N 126.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 26.1N 135.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 27.3N 132.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 28.6N 130.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 26.1N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 28.6N 130.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 220600UTC 31.5N 126.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 230600UTC 36.0N 125.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 26.0N 135.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 135.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.9N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.3N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 29.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 31.8N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 36.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 42.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 46.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 135.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 135.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 135.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 200600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200600UTC 26.0N 135.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 210600UTC 28.4N 130.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 220600UTC 31.7N 126.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 230600UTC 36.1N 127.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 240600UTC 42.0N 131.3E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
120HR
POSITION 250600UTC 47.4N 135.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 26.1N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 27.0N 133.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 28.3N 130.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 31.5N 126.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 36.0N 125.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 26.1N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 28.3N 130.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 220600UTC 31.5N 126.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 230600UTC 36.0N 125.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 240600UTC 42.3N 128.5E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT
120HF 250600UTC 48.1N 133.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 26.1N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 28.3N 130.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 220600UTC 31.5N 126.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 230600UTC 36.0N 125.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 25.7N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.5N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.7N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 29.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 30.9N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 35.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 42.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 45.7N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 135.8E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.9N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.5N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 42.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 46.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 137.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.9N 136.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 26.7N 134.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 28.0N 131.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 137.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 26.3N 135.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 27.4N 132.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.3N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 25.9N 136.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 26.6N 134.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.8N 136.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 26.6N 134.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 27.8N 132.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 30.8N 127.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 35.9N 126.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.6N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 26.3N 135.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 27.2N 133.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 30.0N 128.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 34.3N 125.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 25.9N 136.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 28.0N 131.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 220000UTC 30.8N 127.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 230000UTC 35.9N 126.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 136.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 136.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 25.8N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 27.8N 132.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 220000UTC 30.8N 127.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 230000UTC 35.9N 126.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 240000UTC 42.7N 129.6E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
120HF 250000UTC 47.0N 132.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 25.8N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 27.8N 132.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 220000UTC 30.8N 127.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 230000UTC 35.9N 126.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 25.6N 137.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 27.4N 132.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 211800UTC 30.0N 128.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 221800UTC 34.3N 125.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 137.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 137.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 25.6N 137.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 27.2N 133.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 211800UTC 30.0N 128.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 221800UTC 34.3N 125.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 231800UTC 41.7N 127.7E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 19KT
120HF 241800UTC 46.9N 131.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 25.6N 137.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 27.2N 133.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 211800UTC 30.0N 128.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 221800UTC 34.3N 125.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 25.3N 138.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 26.6N 134.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 211200UTC 29.2N 129.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 221200UTC 33.4N 126.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.1N, 138.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.1N, 138.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191200UTC 25.2N 138.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 201200UTC 26.9N 133.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 211200UTC 28.9N 129.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 221200UTC 32.5N 126.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 231200UTC 38.2N 128.5E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 241200UTC 44.0N 133.0E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 25.6N 136.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 26.2N 134.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 29.2N 129.2E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 33.4N 126.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 25.1N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 26.2N 134.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 211200UTC 29.2N 129.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 221200UTC 33.4N 126.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 231200UTC 40.5N 127.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
120HF 241200UTC 46.9N 131.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 25.1N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 26.2N 134.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 211200UTC 29.2N 129.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 221200UTC 33.4N 126.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.1N 138.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 25.6N 136.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 26.2N 135.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 25.1N 138.4E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 26.2N 135.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 210600UTC 28.4N 130.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 220600UTC 32.2N 126.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 25.0N 138.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 138.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.5N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.0N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 28.4N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.3N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 37.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 44.0N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 138.3E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190600UTC 25.0N 138.7E
MOVEMENT WSW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 200600UTC 26.5N 134.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 210600UTC 28.2N 130.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 220600UTC 31.7N 126.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 230600UTC 36.6N 127.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 240600UTC 42.5N 131.8E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 24.9N 138.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 25.3N 137.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 25.9N 135.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 28.4N 130.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 32.2N 126.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 138.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 138.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 24.9N 138.7E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 25.9N 135.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 210600UTC 28.4N 130.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 220600UTC 32.2N 126.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 230600UTC 37.9N 126.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
120HF 240600UTC 44.3N 131.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 24.9N 138.7E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 25.9N 135.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 210600UTC 28.4N 130.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 220600UTC 32.2N 126.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 190300
WARNING 190300.
WARNING VALID 200300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.1N 138.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 25.4N 137.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 25.9N 135.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 25.1N 138.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 25.9N 135.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 210000UTC 27.8N 131.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 220000UTC 31.2N 127.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 25.1N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.6N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.0N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 26.7N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 27.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 31.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 35.8N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 41.7N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 138.8E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.1N, 139.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 25.1N, 139.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190000UTC 25.1N 139.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 200000UTC 26.3N 135.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 210000UTC 27.8N 131.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 220000UTC 30.7N 127.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 230000UTC 35.2N 128.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 240000UTC 41.6N 130.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.1N 139.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.4N 137.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 26.0N 136.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 27.8N 131.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 31.2N 127.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 25.1N 139.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 26.0N 136.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 210000UTC 27.8N 131.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 220000UTC 31.2N 127.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 230000UTC 36.2N 126.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
120HF 240000UTC 43.4N 129.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 25.1N 139.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 210NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 26.0N 136.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 210000UTC 27.8N 131.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 220000UTC 31.2N 127.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 25.1N 139.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 25.5N 138.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 25.9N 136.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 25.1N 139.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 250NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 25.9N 136.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 201800UTC 27.2N 132.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 211800UTC 30.2N 128.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 24.9N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.3N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.8N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.3N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.3N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 41.5N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 139.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 139.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181800UTC 24.9N 139.7E
MOVEMENT W 3KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 191800UTC 26.4N 137.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 201800UTC 28.3N 132.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 211800UTC 30.6N 129.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 221800UTC 33.8N 129.4E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 231800UTC 37.3N 131.1E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 24.9N 139.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 25.3N 138.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 25.8N 137.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 27.2N 132.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 30.2N 128.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 24.9N 139.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 250NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 25.8N 137.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 201800UTC 27.2N 132.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211800UTC 30.2N 128.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 221800UTC 34.4N 126.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
120HF 231800UTC 41.2N 129.1E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 24.9N 139.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 250NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 25.8N 137.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 201800UTC 27.2N 132.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211800UTC 30.2N 128.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 181500
WARNING 181500.
WARNING VALID 191500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 24.8N 139.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 25.1N 139.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 25.5N 137.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 24.8N 139.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 250NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 25.5N 137.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 201200UTC 26.9N 134.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 211200UTC 29.7N 129.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 24.8N 139.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 139.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.7N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.2N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.1N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.7N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 40.7N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 139.7E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 76 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.8N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181200UTC 24.9N 140.0E
MOVEMENT N 1KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 191200UTC 26.0N 138.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 201200UTC 27.8N 133.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 211200UTC 30.0N 130.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 221200UTC 32.8N 129.1E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 231200UTC 36.7N 130.8E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 955 HPA
AT 24.8N 140.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.0N 139.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.3N 137.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 26.9N 134.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 29.7N 129.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 24.8N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 25.3N 137.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 201200UTC 26.9N 134.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211200UTC 29.7N 129.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 221200UTC 34.5N 128.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
120HF 231200UTC 40.6N 132.1E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 24.8N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM NORTHWEST 60NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 25.3N 137.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 201200UTC 26.9N 134.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211200UTC 29.7N 129.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 180900
WARNING 180900.
WARNING VALID 190900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 965 HPA
AT 24.8N 140.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 24.9N 139.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 25.3N 138.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 24.8N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 25.3N 138.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 200600UTC 26.5N 135.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 210600UTC 29.0N 130.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.7N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.2N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 40.3N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 139.9E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180600UTC 24.8N 140.0E
MOVEMENT N 3KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 190600UTC 25.6N 138.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 200600UTC 27.3N 134.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 210600UTC 29.4N 130.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 220600UTC 31.8N 129.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 230600UTC 36.0N 130.5E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 965 HPA
AT 24.8N 140.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.0N 139.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 25.4N 138.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 26.5N 135.3E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 29.0N 130.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.8N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE
OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.8N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE
OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 24.8N 140.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 25.4N 138.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 200600UTC 26.5N 135.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210600UTC 29.0N 130.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 220600UTC 33.1N 128.3E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
120HF 230600UTC 39.3N 130.7E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 24.8N 140.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 25.4N 138.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 200600UTC 26.5N 135.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210600UTC 29.0N 130.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 180300
WARNING 180300.
WARNING VALID 190300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 965 HPA
AT 24.7N 140.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 25.0N 139.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 25.4N 138.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 24.7N 140.0E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 25.4N 138.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 200000UTC 26.4N 136.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 210000UTC 28.5N 132.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.4N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.4N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.8N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 32.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 39.6N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 139.9E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 140.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 140.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180000UTC 24.5N 140.0E
MOVEMENT NNE 2KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 190000UTC 26.4N 138.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 200000UTC 28.1N 135.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 210000UTC 29.7N 132.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 220000UTC 30.7N 130.3E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 230000UTC 32.3N 129.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 970 HPA
AT 24.6N 140.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 24.9N 139.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.2N 138.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 26.4N 136.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 28.5N 132.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 24.6N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 25.2N 138.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 200000UTC 26.4N 136.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210000UTC 28.5N 132.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 220000UTC 32.4N 129.3E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
120HF 230000UTC 38.4N 130.7E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 24.6N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 25.2N 138.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 200000UTC 26.4N 136.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 210000UTC 28.5N 132.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 172100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.6N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.2N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 28.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.7N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 37.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 140.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20W (BEBINCA) REFERENCE.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 172100
WARNING 172100.
WARNING VALID 182100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 970 HPA
AT 24.4N 139.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 24.7N 139.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 25.0N 139.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 24.4N 139.9E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 25.0N 139.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 191800UTC 26.2N 136.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 201800UTC 28.1N 133.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 010
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 24.2N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.6N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.2N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 28.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.7N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 37.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 140.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTIO33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 139.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 139.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 970 HPA
AT 24.3N 139.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.7N 139.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.0N 139.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 26.2N 136.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 28.1N 133.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 24.3N 139.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 25.0N 139.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 191800UTC 26.2N 136.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201800UTC 28.1N 133.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 211800UTC 31.6N 130.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
120HF 221800UTC 37.4N 131.3E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 24.3N 139.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 25.0N 139.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 191800UTC 26.2N 136.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201800UTC 28.1N 133.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 171500
WARNING 171500.
WARNING VALID 181500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) 970 HPA
AT 24.1N 139.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 24.6N 139.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 24.9N 139.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 24.1N 139.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 24.9N 139.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 191200UTC 25.6N 137.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 201200UTC 27.5N 134.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 23.7N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.8N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.4N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.5N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 28.1N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 30.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 35.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 140.0E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (BEBINCA) FINAL WARNING


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 140.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 140.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK
VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 23.8N 140.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.5N 140.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 24.7N 140.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.6N 137.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 27.5N 134.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 23.8N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 24.7N 140.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 191200UTC 25.6N 137.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201200UTC 27.5N 134.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 211200UTC 30.7N 131.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
120HF 221200UTC 35.2N 129.9E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 23.8N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 24.7N 140.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 191200UTC 25.6N 137.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 201200UTC 27.5N 134.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 170900
WARNING 170900.
WARNING VALID 180900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 23.4N 140.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 24.4N 139.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 24.7N 139.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 23.4N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 24.7N 139.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 190600UTC 25.2N 138.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 200600UTC 26.8N 135.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 23.2N 140.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 140.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.7N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.4N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.9N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.3N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 30.2N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.7N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 140.2E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z,
172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W
(BEBINCA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW 170300). REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) FINAL WARNING


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 23.0N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 985 HPA
AT 23.0N 140.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 24.4N 140.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.7N 140.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 25.2N 138.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 26.8N 135.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 23.0N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 24.7N 140.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 190600UTC 25.2N 138.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 200600UTC 26.8N 135.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 210600UTC 29.6N 131.3E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
120HF 220600UTC 34.1N 129.7E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 23.0N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 24.7N 140.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 190600UTC 25.2N 138.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 200600UTC 26.8N 135.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 170300
WARNING 170300.
WARNING VALID 180300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 990 HPA
AT 22.4N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 24.1N 140.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 24.7N 140.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 22.4N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 24.7N 140.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 190000UTC 24.9N 138.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 200000UTC 26.4N 135.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 140.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 140.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.5N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.5N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.9N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.4N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.6N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 28.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 31.9N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 140.8E.
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 20W (BEBINCA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 21W (RUMBIA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN34 PGTW).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 21.4N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170000UTC 21.4N 141.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 180000UTC 24.5N 140.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 190000UTC 26.0N 139.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 200000UTC 27.6N 137.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 210000UTC 29.3N 134.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
120HR
POSITION 220000UTC 30.6N 131.6E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 990 HPA
AT 21.4N 141.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.5N 140.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.2N 140.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 24.9N 138.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 26.4N 135.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 21.4N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 24.2N 140.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 190000UTC 24.9N 138.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 200000UTC 26.4N 135.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 210000UTC 28.9N 131.7E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
120HF 220000UTC 32.6N 129.0E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 21.4N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 24.2N 140.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 190000UTC 24.9N 138.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 200000UTC 26.4N 135.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 162100
WARNING 162100.
WARNING VALID 172100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 990 HPA
AT 20.7N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 23.1N 140.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 24.1N 139.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 20.7N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 24.1N 139.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 181800UTC 25.0N 138.9E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 191800UTC 26.5N 136.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 20.2N 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.0N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.5N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.6N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 27.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 30.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 141.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION
OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER BECAUSE
THE POLEWARD-TURN FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION
OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER BECAUSE
THE POLEWARD-TURN FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 1819 SOULIK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 20.0N 141.7E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 23.9N 140.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 25.8N 140.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 27.1N 138.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 201800UTC 28.9N 135.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 211800UTC 30.2N 132.2E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 20.0N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 22.7N 140.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 24.2N 139.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.0N 138.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 26.5N 136.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 20.0N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 24.2N 139.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 181800UTC 25.0N 138.9E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 191800UTC 26.5N 136.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 201800UTC 28.8N 133.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
120HF 211800UTC 33.0N 130.8E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 20.0N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 24.2N 139.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 181800UTC 25.0N 138.9E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 191800UTC 26.5N 136.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 992 HPA
AT 19.3N 141.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 22.3N 140.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 24.1N 140.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 19.3N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 24.1N 140.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 181200UTC 24.8N 139.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 191200UTC 25.7N 137.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.5N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.1N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.2N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.7N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 29.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 141.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 18.4N, 141.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 18.4N, 141.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 996 HPA
AT 18.4N 141.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 21.4N 140.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 23.6N 140.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 24.8N 139.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 25.7N 137.8E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 18.4N 141.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 23.6N 140.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 181200UTC 24.8N 139.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 191200UTC 25.7N 137.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 201200UTC 27.1N 134.1E 240NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
120HF 211200UTC 29.4N 130.6E 375NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 18.4N 141.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 23.6N 140.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 181200UTC 24.8N 139.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 191200UTC 25.7N 137.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 18.0N 142.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 23.4N 140.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 180600UTC 24.9N 139.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 190600UTC 25.8N 138.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.9N 142.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 142.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.9N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.5N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.1N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.8N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.7N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.0N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.2N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) 998 HPA
AT 17.1N 142.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 20.2N 141.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 23.0N 140.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.9N 139.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 25.8N 138.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 15.0N 142.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 18.1N 141.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 21.0N 140.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 24.8N 140.2E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.9N 139.6E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SOULIK IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 17.1N 142.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 23.0N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180600UTC 24.9N 139.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 190600UTC 25.8N 138.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 200600UTC 27.5N 136.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
120HF 210600UTC 29.4N 133.1E 350NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 17.1N 142.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 23.0N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180600UTC 24.9N 139.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 190600UTC 25.8N 138.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 16.2N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 22.1N 140.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 180000UTC 24.8N 140.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 190000UTC 25.9N 139.6E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.3N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.6N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.6N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.9N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 142.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W
(RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1819 SOULIK (1819)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (SOULIK) STATUS. TS SOULIK IS
LOCATED AT 15.0N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 15.0N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 21.0N 140.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180000UTC 24.8N 140.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190000UTC 25.9N 139.6E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 200000UTC 27.5N 137.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
120HF 210000UTC 29.6N 134.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1819 SOULIK (1819) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 15.0N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 21.0N 140.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180000UTC 24.8N 140.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190000UTC 25.9N 139.6E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 143.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 143.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.8N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.6N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 143.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142221ZAUG2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 12.5N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.1N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.6N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 27.5N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.7N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 144.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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