Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JEBI-18
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 47N 139E
MOVE N 40KT
PRES 974HPA
MXWD 055KT
30KT 900NM SOUTHEAST 500NM NORTHWEST =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 975 HPA
AT 44.8N 140.5E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 41 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 50.9N 138.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 53.7N 137.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 44.8N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 41KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 53.7N 137.3E 60NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 43.2N 140.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 47 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 49.6N 138.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 52.9N 137.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 43.2N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT LAND BY FT12.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT06. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 43.2N 140.0E FAIR
MOVE N 47KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 52.9N 137.4E 60NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 975 HPA
AT 40.9N 138.8E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 42 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 48.1N 138.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 51.8N 136.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 40.9N 138.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 42KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM SOUTHEAST 30NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 51.8N 136.5E 60NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 38.7N, 138.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT LAND BY FT24.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 975 HPA
AT 38.7N 138.2E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 37 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 46.3N 139.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 50.9N 137.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 38.7N 138.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 37KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 30NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 50.9N 137.0E 60NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 970 HPA
AT 37.1N 136.5E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 36 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 45.0N 139.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 50.5N 137.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 37.1N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 36KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 30NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 50.5N 137.3E 60NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 960 HPA
AT 35.6N 135.7E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 34 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 43.4N 139.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 49.8N 138.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 35.6N, 135.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND
THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT18. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 35.6N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 34KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 49.8N 138.1E 60NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 950 HPA
AT 33.8N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 41.1N 138.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 48.2N 138.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 33.8N 134.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 48.2N 138.2E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 040000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040000UTC 32.3N 133.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 23KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 050000UTC 46.3N 138.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 32.4N 133.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 23 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 39.3N 137.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 46.9N 138.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 32.4N, 133.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND
THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 32.4N 133.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 23KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 46.9N 138.9E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 032100
WARNING 032100.
WARNING VALID 042100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 31.3N 133.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 37.1N 136.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 45.0N 139.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 31.3N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 45.0N 139.1E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 40KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 051800UTC 52.8N 136.6E 110NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180903193343
2018090318 25W JEBI 031 01 005 17 SATL RADR 040
T000 303N 1328E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 353N 1351E 070 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 195 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 422N 1373E 055 R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 290 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.3N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 42.2N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 133.4E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090312 286N1326E 90
2518090312 286N1326E 90
2518090312 286N1326E 90
2518090318 303N1328E 80
2518090318 303N1328E 80
2518090318 303N1328E 80


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.3N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 42.2N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 133.4E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 031800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 30.3N, 132.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 30.3N, 132.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT36. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 031800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031800UTC 30.2N 132.9E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 041800UTC 41.7N 138.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 051800UTC 53.6N 139.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 30.3N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 35.3N 135.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 43.1N 139.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 52.8N 136.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 30.3N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 43.1N 139.2E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 42KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 051800UTC 52.8N 136.6E 110NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 29.4N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 33.4N 134.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 40.7N 138.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 29.4N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 40.7N 138.6E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 40KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 051200UTC 51.5N 137.4E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.3N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 38.8N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 45.7N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180903132208
2018090312 25W JEBI 030 01 005 12 SATL SYNP 030
T000 286N 1326E 090 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 323N 1339E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 205 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 388N 1366E 075 R064 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 025 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD 175 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 457N 1383E 060 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 300 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 030
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.3N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 38.8N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 45.7N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 132.9E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTH OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090312 286N1326E 90
2518090312 286N1326E 90
2518090312 286N1326E 90


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 031200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 132.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT18. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 132.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT18. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT36. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 031200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 031200UTC 28.6N 132.6E
MOVEMENT N 11KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 041200UTC 38.4N 136.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 051200UTC 51.5N 139.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 28.6N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 32.1N 133.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 38.6N 137.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 51.5N 137.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 28.6N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 38.6N 137.7E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 36KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 051200UTC 51.5N 137.4E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 28.0N 132.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 31.1N 133.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 36.9N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 28.0N 132.5E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 36.9N 136.6E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 32KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 050600UTC 49.5N 138.7E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180903075015
2018090306 25W JEBI 029 01 330 11 SATL SYNP 030
T000 274N 1325E 095 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 303N 1329E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 195 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 353N 1352E 080 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 415N 1375E 070 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 245 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 029
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 27.4N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.3N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.5N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 132.6E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090306 274N1325E 95
2518090306 274N1325E 95
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 27.4N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.3N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.5N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 132.6E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 030600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030600UTC 27.5N 132.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 040600UTC 35.3N 135.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 050600UTC 48.3N 139.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 945 HPA
AT 27.5N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 30.2N 132.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 34.9N 135.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 49.5N 138.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 132.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 27.5N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 34.9N 135.4E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 26KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 050600UTC 49.5N 138.7E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 030300
WARNING 030300.
WARNING VALID 040300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 940 HPA
AT 26.9N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 29.3N 132.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 33.2N 134.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 26.9N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 33.2N 134.3E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 050000UTC 46.0N 139.5E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180903005707
2018090300 25W JEBI 028 01 325 11 SATL 020
T000 264N 1331E 100 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 276N 1329E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 305N 1332E 085 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 351N 1352E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 225 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 419N 1379E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 255 NE QD 260 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 26.4N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.1N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 41.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 133.0E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
2518090300 264N1331E 100
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 26.4N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.5N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.1N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 41.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 133.0E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 133.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 030000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 030000UTC 26.6N 133.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 040000UTC 32.6N 133.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 050000UTC 45.3N 139.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 060000UTC 54.9N 138.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 940 HPA
AT 26.6N 133.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 28.7N 132.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 32.0N 133.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 46.0N 139.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 26.6N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 32.0N 133.4E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 050000UTC 46.0N 139.5E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 25.9N 133.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 27.9N 132.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 30.9N 133.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 25.9N 133.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 30.9N 133.2E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 041800UTC 41.9N 138.8E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 32KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 051800UTC 52.0N 137.1E 210NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180902191731
2018090218 25W JEBI 027 01 330 11 SATL 015
T000 255N 1338E 105 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 276N 1331E 095 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 305N 1333E 085 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 205 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 352N 1351E 075 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 421N 1377E 055 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 265 NE QD 280 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.6N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.2N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 42.1N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 133.6E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM EAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
2518090218 255N1338E 105
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 25.5N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.6N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.5N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 35.2N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 42.1N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 133.6E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM EAST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 021800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021800UTC 25.5N 133.8E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 031800UTC 30.1N 132.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 041800UTC 42.4N 138.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 051800UTC 53.3N 138.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 25.5N 133.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 27.4N 132.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.9N 132.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 41.9N 138.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 52.0N 137.1E WITH 210 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 25.5N, 133.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 25.5N, 133.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 25.5N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 29.9N 132.7E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 041800UTC 41.9N 138.8E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 32KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 051800UTC 52.0N 137.1E 210NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 25.0N 134.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 26.8N 133.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 29.2N 132.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 25.0N 134.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 29.2N 132.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 041200UTC 37.1N 137.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 051200UTC 50.0N 137.8E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 021400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 24.5N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.7N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.0N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 37.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 49.5N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 134.1E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180902132745
2018090212 25W JEBI 026 01 325 10 SATL 030
T000 245N 1344E 110 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 263N 1334E 105 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 287N 1331E 095 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 320N 1339E 090 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 375N 1362E 080 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 255 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 495N 1388E 050 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 335 NE QD 230 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 24.5N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.7N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 32.0N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 37.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 49.5N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 335 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 134.1E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
2518090212 245N1344E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 24.5N, 134.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 24.5N, 134.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 021200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 021200UTC 24.5N 134.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 031200UTC 28.4N 132.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 041200UTC 36.8N 135.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 051200UTC 49.9N 138.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 24.5N 134.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.3N 133.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 28.3N 132.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 37.1N 137.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 50.0N 137.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 24.5N 134.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 28.3N 132.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 041200UTC 37.1N 137.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 051200UTC 50.0N 137.8E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 24.2N 134.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 25.8N 133.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 27.8N 132.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 24.2N 134.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 27.8N 132.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 040600UTC 32.9N 134.2E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 050600UTC 47.4N 138.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180902073401
2018090206 25W JEBI 025 01 325 12 SATL 030
T000 237N 1350E 110 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 255N 1338E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 272N 1329E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 301N 1331E 095 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 205 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 345N 1348E 085 R064 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 468N 1390E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 325 NE QD 305 SE QD 120 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 34.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 46.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 134.7E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090118 217N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090200 227N1357E 115
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
2518090206 237N1350E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 34.5N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 46.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 325 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 134.7E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM WEST OF IWO TO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE POLEWARD-TURN FORECAST IS
UNCERTAIN.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE POLEWARD-TURN FORECAST IS
UNCERTAIN.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT60 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 020600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020600UTC 23.7N 135.0E
MOVEMENT NW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 030600UTC 27.1N 132.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 040600UTC 33.6N 133.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 050600UTC 47.7N 139.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 23.7N 135.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 25.2N 133.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.9N 132.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 32.9N 134.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 47.4N 138.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 23.7N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 26.9N 132.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 040600UTC 32.9N 134.2E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 050600UTC 47.4N 138.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 23.7N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 26.9N 132.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 040600UTC 32.9N 134.2E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 050600UTC 47.4N 138.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 23.2N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 24.8N 134.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 26.7N 133.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 23.2N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 26.7N 133.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 040000UTC 31.4N 133.5E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 050000UTC 44.3N 139.2E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 34KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180902010752
2018090200 25W JEBI 024 01 320 12 SATL 020
T000 227N 1358E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 245N 1344E 105 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 263N 1334E 100 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 284N 1328E 090 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 319N 1339E 080 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 438N 1387E 060 R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 265 SE QD 165 SW QD 095 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 135.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.5N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.4N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 31.9N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 43.8N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 135.4E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 218N1366E 130
2518090118 218N1366E 130
2518090118 218N1366E 130
2518090200 227N1358E 115
2518090200 227N1358E 115
2518090200 227N1358E 115
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 135.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 135.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.5N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.4N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 31.9N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 43.8N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 135.4E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 135.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 135.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT60
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 020000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 020000UTC 22.7N 136.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 030000UTC 26.1N 133.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 040000UTC 30.9N 132.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 050000UTC 43.0N 138.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 060000UTC 52.0N 138.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 935 HPA
AT 22.5N 135.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.2N 134.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.0N 133.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 31.4N 133.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 44.3N 139.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 22.5N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 26.0N 133.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 040000UTC 31.4N 133.5E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 050000UTC 44.3N 139.2E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 34KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 060000UTC 52.3N 137.8E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 22.5N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 26.0N 133.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 040000UTC 31.4N 133.5E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 050000UTC 44.3N 139.2E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 34KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 012100
WARNING 012100.
WARNING VALID 022100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 925 HPA
AT 22.2N 136.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 24.0N 134.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 25.7N 133.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 22.2N 136.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 25.7N 133.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 031800UTC 29.8N 133.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 041800UTC 40.9N 138.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180901193733
2018090118 25W JEBI 023 01 315 11 SATL 015
T000 218N 1366E 130 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 236N 1351E 120 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 255N 1340E 100 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 277N 1335E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 304N 1339E 080 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 410N 1382E 060 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 520N 1406E 040 R034 250 NE QD 140 SE QD 015 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.6N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.7N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.4N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.0N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 52.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 136.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090118 218N1366E 130
2518090118 218N1366E 130
2518090118 218N1366E 130
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.6N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.7N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.4N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 41.0N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 52.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 136.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,
021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 136.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 136.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011800UTC 21.8N 136.6E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 021800UTC 25.2N 133.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 031800UTC 30.1N 132.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 041800UTC 40.7N 138.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 051800UTC 51.3N 139.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 925 HPA
AT 21.8N 136.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 23.6N 135.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 25.3N 133.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.8N 133.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 40.9N 138.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 21.8N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 25.3N 133.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031800UTC 29.8N 133.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041800UTC 40.9N 138.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 051800UTC 51.9N 139.3E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 28KT
120HF 061800UTC 56.7N 140.2E 500NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 21.8N 136.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 25.3N 133.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031800UTC 29.8N 133.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041800UTC 40.9N 138.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 011500
WARNING 011500.
WARNING VALID 021500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 21.4N 136.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 23.2N 135.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 24.9N 134.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 21.4N 136.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 24.9N 134.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 031200UTC 28.4N 132.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 041200UTC 37.2N 136.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180901130353
2018090112 25W JEBI 022 01 305 10 SATL 020
T000 210N 1374E 135 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 226N 1358E 125 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 243N 1345E 115 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 263N 1335E 110 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 295N 1339E 100 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 205 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 381N 1371E 080 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 492N 1401E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 355 NE QD 230 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 022
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.3N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 38.1N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 49.2N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 137.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
2518090112 210N1374E 135
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.3N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.3N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 38.1N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 49.2N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 137.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 137.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 137.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011200UTC 21.1N 137.4E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 021200UTC 24.4N 134.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 031200UTC 29.2N 133.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 041200UTC 37.4N 137.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 051200UTC 48.1N 140.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 21.0N 137.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 22.6N 135.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.3N 134.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 28.4N 132.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 37.2N 136.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 21.0N 137.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 24.3N 134.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 031200UTC 28.4N 132.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 041200UTC 37.2N 136.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 051200UTC 49.8N 139.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 32KT
120HF 061200UTC 56.2N 139.9E 500NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 21.0N 137.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 24.3N 134.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 031200UTC 28.4N 132.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 041200UTC 37.2N 136.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 20.7N 137.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 22.3N 136.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 24.0N 134.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 20.7N 137.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 24.0N 134.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 030600UTC 27.5N 133.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 040600UTC 34.5N 135.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180901080010
2018090106 25W JEBI 021 01 315 12 SATL 020
T000 204N 1383E 135 R064 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 155 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 220N 1367E 130 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 238N 1355E 120 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 165 NW QD
T036 258N 1344E 110 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 283N 1340E 100 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 360N 1366E 080 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 480N 1399E 055 R050 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 320 NE QD 275 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.3N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.0N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 48.0N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 137.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518083118 191N1403E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
2518090106 204N1383E 135
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.8N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.3N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.0N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 48.0N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 137.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 138.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 138.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010600UTC 20.4N 138.3E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 020600UTC 23.6N 135.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 030600UTC 27.8N 133.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 040600UTC 34.0N 135.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 050600UTC 44.5N 140.5E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 060600UTC 54.0N 138.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 20.4N 138.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.9N 136.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 23.8N 135.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 27.5N 133.3E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 34.5N 135.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 20.4N 138.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 23.8N 135.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 030600UTC 27.5N 133.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 040600UTC 34.5N 135.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 050600UTC 47.9N 139.7E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 34KT
120HF 060600UTC 54.5N 138.2E 500NM 70.
MOVE N 17KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 20.4N 138.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 23.8N 135.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 030600UTC 27.5N 133.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 040600UTC 34.5N 135.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 19.9N 138.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 21.2N 137.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 23.0N 135.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 19.9N 138.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 23.0N 135.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 030000UTC 26.3N 133.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 040000UTC 31.9N 134.6E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180901005611
2018090100 25W JEBI 020 01 300 11 SATL 020
T000 196N 1392E 140 R064 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 145 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 209N 1374E 135 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 227N 1360E 125 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 247N 1349E 115 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 268N 1344E 105 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 332N 1356E 080 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 443N 1400E 055 R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 245 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 529N 1391E 040 R034 355 NE QD 305 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.7N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.7N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 33.2N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 44.3N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 52.9N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 138.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z
AND 020300Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1402E 150
2518083118 191N1402E 150
2518083118 191N1402E 150
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
2518090100 196N1392E 140
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.7N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.7N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.8N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 33.2N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 44.3N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 52.9N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 138.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 010000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z
AND 020300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010000UTC 19.6N 139.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 020000UTC 23.0N 136.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 915HPA 107KT
48HR
POSITION 030000UTC 26.6N 133.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 040000UTC 31.9N 134.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 050000UTC 40.2N 139.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 060000UTC 50.5N 142.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 19.6N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 20.9N 137.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 22.5N 136.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 26.3N 133.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 31.9N 134.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 19.6N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 22.5N 136.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 030000UTC 26.3N 133.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 040000UTC 31.9N 134.6E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 050000UTC 43.8N 140.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 32KT
120HF 060000UTC 54.5N 141.7E 500NM 70.
MOVE N 27KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 19.6N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 22.5N 136.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 030000UTC 26.3N 133.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 040000UTC 31.9N 134.6E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 312100
WARNING 312100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 19.3N 139.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 20.5N 137.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 22.1N 136.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 19.3N 139.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 22.1N 136.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 021800UTC 25.0N 134.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 031800UTC 29.8N 134.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180831185507
2018083118 25W JEBI 019 01 295 14 SATL 020
T000 191N 1402E 150 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 203N 1382E 145 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 218N 1367E 135 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 236N 1354E 125 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 256N 1348E 115 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 308N 1347E 100 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 405N 1390E 065 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 245 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 516N 1404E 045 R034 355 NE QD 305 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.3N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.8N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.8N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 40.5N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 51.6N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 139.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083118 191N1402E 150
2518083118 191N1402E 150
2518083118 191N1402E 150
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.3N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.8N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.6N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.8N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 40.5N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 51.6N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 139.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 46 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 311800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 19.1N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 311800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 311800UTC 19.1N 140.3E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 011800UTC 22.6N 137.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 021800UTC 26.0N 134.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 031800UTC 30.0N 134.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 041800UTC 37.6N 137.4E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
120HR
POSITION 051800UTC 47.7N 142.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 311800
WARNING 311800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 19.1N 140.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 20.3N 138.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.7N 136.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 25.0N 134.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 29.8N 134.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 19.1N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 19.1N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 21.7N 136.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 021800UTC 25.0N 134.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 031800UTC 29.8N 134.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 041800UTC 39.6N 139.1E 300NM 70.
MOVE NNE 27KT
120HF 051800UTC 51.6N 140.9E 425NM 70.
MOVE N 30KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 19.1N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 21.7N 136.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 021800UTC 25.0N 134.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 031800UTC 29.8N 134.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 311500
WARNING 311500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 18.7N 140.9E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 19.8N 139.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 21.2N 137.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 311500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311500UTC 18.7N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 21.2N 137.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 021200UTC 24.0N 135.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 031200UTC 27.9N 133.4E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180831130541
2018083112 25W JEBI 018 01 285 12 SATL 015
T000 185N 1415E 150 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 196N 1394E 145 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 209N 1376E 140 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 226N 1362E 135 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 245N 1351E 125 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 290N 1341E 105 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 370N 1378E 085 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 245 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 488N 1404E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 355 NE QD 305 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 018
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 37.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 48.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 141.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
2518083112 185N1415E 150
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 18.5N 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 37.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 48.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 355 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 141.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 46
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 311200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 311200UTC 18.6N 141.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 011200UTC 21.7N 137.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 021200UTC 25.0N 135.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 031200UTC 28.6N 134.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 041200UTC 34.4N 135.8E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 051200UTC 43.9N 141.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 311200
WARNING 311200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 18.5N 141.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 19.5N 139.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 20.8N 137.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.0N 135.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 27.9N 133.4E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 311200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 141.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 18.5N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 20.8N 137.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 021200UTC 24.0N 135.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 031200UTC 27.9N 133.4E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 041200UTC 34.0N 135.8E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
120HF 051200UTC 43.1N 138.5E 425NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 311200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311200UTC 18.5N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 20.8N 137.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 021200UTC 24.0N 135.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 031200UTC 27.9N 133.4E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 310900
WARNING 310900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 18.3N 142.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 19.2N 140.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 20.5N 138.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 310900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 18.3N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 20.5N 138.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 020600UTC 23.5N 135.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 030600UTC 26.8N 133.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180831073449
2018083106 25W JEBI 017 01 285 14 SATL 015
T000 182N 1427E 150 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 191N 1404E 150 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 203N 1384E 145 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 217N 1369E 140 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 125 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 237N 1357E 130 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 276N 1341E 110 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 195 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 342N 1365E 090 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 215 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 457N 1407E 055 R050 105 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 255 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 017
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.1N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.3N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.7N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.6N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 34.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 45.7N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 142.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083100 179N1441E 145
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
2518083106 182N1427E 150
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.1N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.3N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.7N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.7N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.6N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 34.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 45.7N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 142.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTHWEST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 44
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 310600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 18.3N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 310600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 310600UTC 18.3N 142.8E
MOVEMENT WNW 14KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 010600UTC 20.8N 139.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 910HPA 109KT
48HR
POSITION 020600UTC 23.8N 135.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 030600UTC 27.6N 134.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 040600UTC 32.2N 134.9E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 050600UTC 39.4N 138.5E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 310600
WARNING 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 18.3N 142.7E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 19.2N 140.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 20.4N 138.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 23.5N 135.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 26.8N 133.8E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 18.3N, 142.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 18.3N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 20.4N 138.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 020600UTC 23.5N 135.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 030600UTC 26.8N 133.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 040600UTC 31.3N 134.2E 210NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
120HF 050600UTC 41.6N 139.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 28KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 310600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 18.3N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 20.4N 138.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 020600UTC 23.5N 135.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 030600UTC 26.8N 133.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 310300
WARNING 310300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 18.1N 143.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 18.8N 141.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 19.9N 139.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 310300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310300UTC 18.1N 143.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 19.9N 139.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 020000UTC 22.4N 136.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 030000UTC 25.6N 133.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 310000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 310000UTC 17.9N 144.2E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 010000UTC 20.2N 139.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 020000UTC 23.0N 136.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 030000UTC 26.6N 134.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 040000UTC 30.9N 134.4E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 050000UTC 35.8N 136.7E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 310000
WARNING 310000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 915 HPA
AT 17.9N 144.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 18.6N 141.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 19.6N 139.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 22.4N 136.2E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 25.6N 133.8E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 144.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 17.9N 144.2E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 19.6N 139.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 020000UTC 22.4N 136.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 030000UTC 25.6N 133.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 040000UTC 29.7N 133.3E 210NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
120HF 050000UTC 37.2N 137.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 21KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 17.9N 144.2E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 19.6N 139.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 020000UTC 22.4N 136.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 030000UTC 25.6N 133.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 312100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 925 HPA
AT 17.8N 144.8E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 18.4N 142.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 312100UTC AT 19.3N 140.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 17.8N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 19.3N 140.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 011800UTC 21.9N 136.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 021800UTC 25.2N 134.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180830191634
2018083018 25W JEBI 015 01 270 14 SATL 015
T000 178N 1454E 140 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 184N 1428E 155 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 193N 1405E 155 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 207N 1384E 145 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 224N 1368E 140 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 258N 1349E 125 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 307N 1346E 100 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 379N 1379E 060 R050 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 235 SE QD 145 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.7N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 37.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 144.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM NORTH OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083000 176N1491E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083006 177N1481E 110
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083012 178N1469E 120
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140
2518083018 178N1454E 140


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 145.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 145.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.4N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.7N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.7N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 37.9N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 144.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM NORTH OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 145.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 145.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 301800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301800UTC 17.8N 145.4E
MOVEMENT W 15KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 311800UTC 19.6N 140.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 011800UTC 22.2N 137.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
72HR
POSITION 021800UTC 25.7N 134.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
96HR
POSITION 031800UTC 29.4N 134.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 041800UTC 33.3N 135.4E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 311800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 925 HPA
AT 17.8N 145.4E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 18.3N 143.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 19.2N 140.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 21.9N 136.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 25.2N 134.3E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 17.8N 145.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 19.2N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 011800UTC 21.9N 136.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 021800UTC 25.2N 134.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 031800UTC 28.7N 133.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
120HF 041800UTC 35.1N 136.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 17.8N 145.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311800UTC 19.2N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 011800UTC 21.9N 136.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 021800UTC 25.2N 134.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 311500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 940 HPA
AT 17.9N 146.1E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 18.3N 143.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311500UTC AT 19.1N 141.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 17.9N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311500UTC 19.1N 141.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 011200UTC 21.1N 137.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 021200UTC 24.4N 135.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180830132111
2018083012 25W JEBI 014 01 270 12 SATL 015
T000 177N 1468E 110 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 182N 1444E 120 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 190N 1418E 130 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 202N 1397E 130 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 218N 1378E 125 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 185 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 251N 1356E 115 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 195 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 288N 1341E 100 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 358N 1371E 085 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 175 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.2N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.1N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.8N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 146.2E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 95
2518083000 176N1491E 95
2518083000 176N1491E 95
2518083006 177N1481E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 100
2518083012 177N1468E 110
2518083012 177N1468E 110
2518083012 177N1468E 110


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.2N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.1N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.8N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 35.8N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 146.2E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 146.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 301200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 301200UTC 17.8N 146.9E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 311200UTC 19.0N 142.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
48HR
POSITION 011200UTC 21.6N 138.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 021200UTC 24.9N 135.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 031200UTC 28.5N 134.3E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 041200UTC 32.3N 135.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 311200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 950 HPA
AT 17.8N 146.9E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 18.0N 144.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 18.7N 142.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 21.1N 137.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 24.4N 135.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.8N 146.9E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 18.7N 142.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 011200UTC 21.1N 137.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 021200UTC 24.4N 135.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 031200UTC 27.4N 133.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
120HF 041200UTC 31.6N 134.5E 290NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.8N 146.9E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 18.7N 142.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 011200UTC 21.1N 137.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 021200UTC 24.4N 135.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 310900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 950 HPA
AT 17.7N 147.4E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 17.9N 145.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310900UTC AT 18.6N 142.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 17.7N 147.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 18.6N 142.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 010600UTC 20.5N 138.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 020600UTC 23.6N 135.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180830074133
2018083006 25W JEBI 013 01 275 10 SATL 010
T000 177N 1481E 100 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 179N 1458E 110 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 185N 1433E 125 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 194N 1411E 130 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 155 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 207N 1391E 130 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 239N 1364E 120 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 271N 1345E 110 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 320N 1354E 100 R064 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.5N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.7N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.9N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.1N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 32.0N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 147.5E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518083000 176N1491E 95
2518083000 176N1491E 95
2518083000 176N1491E 95
2518083006 177N1481E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 100
2518083006 177N1481E 100


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.5N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.7N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.9N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.1N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 32.0N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 147.5E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 300600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300600UTC 17.7N 148.2E
MOVEMENT W 10KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 310600UTC 18.6N 143.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 010600UTC 20.9N 139.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 020600UTC 24.0N 136.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 030600UTC 27.6N 134.4E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 040600UTC 31.1N 134.9E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 950 HPA
AT 17.7N 148.1E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 17.8N 145.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 18.3N 143.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 20.5N 138.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 23.6N 135.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 17.7N 148.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 18.3N 143.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 010600UTC 20.5N 138.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 020600UTC 23.6N 135.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 030600UTC 26.5N 133.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
120HF 040600UTC 30.9N 134.4E 290NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 17.7N 148.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 18.3N 143.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 010600UTC 20.5N 138.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 020600UTC 23.6N 135.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 300300
WARNING 300300.
WARNING VALID 310300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 960 HPA
AT 17.5N 148.7E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 17.6N 146.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 18.1N 144.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 17.5N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 18.1N 144.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 010000UTC 20.1N 140.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 020000UTC 23.1N 136.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 300000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 300000UTC 17.6N 149.2E
MOVEMENT W 13KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 310000UTC 18.2N 144.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 010000UTC 20.1N 140.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 020000UTC 23.2N 136.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 030000UTC 26.2N 135.1E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 040000UTC 29.7N 134.8E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 960 HPA
AT 17.6N 149.1E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.7N 146.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 18.1N 144.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 20.1N 140.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 23.1N 136.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 149.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 149.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 17.6N 149.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 18.1N 144.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 010000UTC 20.1N 140.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 020000UTC 23.1N 136.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 030000UTC 25.8N 134.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
120HF 040000UTC 29.5N 134.4E 290NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 17.6N 149.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 18.1N 144.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 010000UTC 20.1N 140.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 020000UTC 23.1N 136.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 960 HPA
AT 17.6N 149.9E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 17.8N 147.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 18.0N 145.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 17.6N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 18.0N 145.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 311800UTC 19.5N 141.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 011800UTC 22.4N 137.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180829193056
2018082918 25W JEBI 011 01 280 10 SATL 020
T000 174N 1503E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 176N 1481E 105 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 180N 1457E 120 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 186N 1434E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 197N 1413E 130 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 145 SE QD 095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 224N 1378E 120 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 256N 1353E 115 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 287N 1341E 110 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 135 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 17.4N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.0N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.6N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 149.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND
302100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082912 172N1513E 75
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90
2518082918 174N1503E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 17.4N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.0N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.6N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.6N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 149.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND
302100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 150.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 150.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 291800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291800UTC 17.4N 150.6E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 301800UTC 17.9N 145.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 311800UTC 19.5N 141.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 011800UTC 22.5N 137.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 021800UTC 25.3N 135.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 031800UTC 28.7N 134.9E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 960 HPA
AT 17.4N 150.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.6N 148.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 17.8N 146.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 19.5N 141.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 22.4N 137.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 17.4N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 17.8N 146.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 311800UTC 19.5N 141.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 011800UTC 22.4N 137.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 021800UTC 25.6N 135.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
120HF 031800UTC 28.8N 134.8E 290NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 17.4N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 17.8N 146.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 311800UTC 19.5N 141.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 011800UTC 22.4N 137.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 975 HPA
AT 17.4N 151.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 17.6N 148.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 17.9N 146.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 17.4N 151.0E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301500UTC 17.9N 146.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 311200UTC 19.1N 142.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 011200UTC 21.9N 138.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180829131121
2018082912 25W JEBI 010 01 280 12 SATL 040
T000 173N 1511E 070 R064 025 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 175N 1489E 085 R064 035 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 179N 1466E 095 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 184N 1443E 105 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 095 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 192N 1420E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 218N 1383E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 251N 1358E 105 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 282N 1347E 100 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 195 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.5N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.8N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.1N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.2N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 150.5E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082912 173N1511E 70
2518082912 173N1511E 70
2518082912 173N1511E 70


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.5N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.8N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.1N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.2N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 150.5E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 151.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 151.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 291200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291200UTC 17.3N 151.5E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 301200UTC 17.8N 147.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 311200UTC 19.1N 142.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 011200UTC 21.5N 138.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 021200UTC 24.5N 136.4E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 031200UTC 27.6N 135.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 975 HPA
AT 17.3N 151.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 17.5N 149.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.8N 147.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 19.1N 142.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 21.9N 138.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 17.3N 151.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 17.8N 147.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 311200UTC 19.1N 142.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 011200UTC 21.9N 138.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 021200UTC 25.0N 135.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
120HF 031200UTC 28.2N 134.5E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 17.3N 151.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 17.8N 147.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 311200UTC 19.1N 142.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 011200UTC 21.9N 138.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) 975 HPA
AT 17.3N 152.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 17.4N 149.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 17.6N 147.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 17.3N 152.0E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 17.6N 147.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 310600UTC 18.5N 143.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 010600UTC 20.9N 138.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180829073139
2018082906 25W JEBI 009 01 275 11 SATL 030
T000 171N 1523E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 174N 1502E 080 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 177N 1479E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 181N 1457E 105 R064 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 190N 1433E 115 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 212N 1393E 120 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 242N 1370E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 271N 1359E 100 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.4N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.7N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.0N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.2N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.1N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 151.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65
2518082906 171N1523E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.4N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.7N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.0N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.2N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.1N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 151.8E.
TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290600UTC 17.1N 152.6E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 300600UTC 17.8N 148.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 310600UTC 18.6N 144.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 010600UTC 20.7N 139.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 020600UTC 23.2N 137.2E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
120HR
POSITION 030600UTC 26.4N 135.9E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980 HPA
AT 17.3N 152.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 17.5N 150.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 17.6N 148.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 18.5N 143.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 20.9N 138.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 152.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 17.3N 152.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 17.6N 148.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 310600UTC 18.5N 143.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 010600UTC 20.9N 138.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 020600UTC 23.9N 136.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
120HF 030600UTC 26.6N 135.1E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 17.3N 152.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 17.6N 148.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 310600UTC 18.5N 143.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 010600UTC 20.9N 138.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 985 HPA
AT 17.1N 152.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 17.4N 151.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 17.6N 148.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 17.1N 152.8E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 17.6N 148.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 310000UTC 18.1N 144.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 010000UTC 20.2N 139.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180829010510
2018082900 25W JEBI 008 01 290 10 SATL 020
T000 170N 1534E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 174N 1515E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 178N 1492E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 181N 1468E 095 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 188N 1446E 100 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 125 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 207N 1403E 115 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 232N 1376E 120 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 261N 1365E 105 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 153.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 153.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.4N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.1N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.8N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.2N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.1N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 152.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND
300300Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 164N1554E 40
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082818 167N1544E 50
2518082900 170N1534E 55
2518082900 170N1534E 55
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 153.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 153.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.4N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.1N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.8N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.2N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.1N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 152.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
290000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND
300300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 153.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 290000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 290000UTC 17.0N 153.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 300000UTC 17.7N 149.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 310000UTC 18.4N 145.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 010000UTC 20.3N 141.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 020000UTC 22.8N 137.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 030000UTC 25.7N 136.1E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 990 HPA
AT 17.0N 153.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 17.4N 151.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 17.6N 149.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 18.1N 144.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 20.2N 139.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 17.0N 153.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.6N 149.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 310000UTC 18.1N 144.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 010000UTC 20.2N 139.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 020000UTC 22.7N 136.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
120HF 030000UTC 25.1N 135.4E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 17.0N 153.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 17.6N 149.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 310000UTC 18.1N 144.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 010000UTC 20.2N 139.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 994 HPA
AT 16.8N 154.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 17.2N 152.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 17.4N 150.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 16.8N 154.1E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 17.4N 150.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 301800UTC 18.0N 145.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 311800UTC 19.6N 140.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180828185713
2018082818 25W JEBI 007 01 285 11 SATL 025
T000 169N 1542E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 175N 1522E 060 R050 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 178N 1501E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 181N 1480E 080 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 186N 1455E 090 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 125 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 201N 1409E 105 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 224N 1381E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 249N 1366E 120 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 154.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 154.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.5N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.8N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.6N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 153.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z,
291500Z AND 292100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 166N1553E 40
2518082818 169N1542E 50
2518082818 169N1542E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 154.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 154.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.5N 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.8N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.6N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.4N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 153.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z,
291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281800UTC 16.7N 154.4E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 291800UTC 17.4N 150.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 301800UTC 18.2N 146.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 311800UTC 19.8N 142.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 011800UTC 22.0N 138.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 021800UTC 24.6N 135.4E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
994 HPA
AT 16.7N 154.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 17.2N 152.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 17.4N 150.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 18.0N 145.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 19.6N 140.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 154.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 16.7N 154.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 17.4N 150.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 301800UTC 18.0N 145.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 311800UTC 19.6N 140.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 011800UTC 21.8N 137.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
120HF 021800UTC 24.7N 135.9E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 16.7N 154.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 17.4N 150.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 301800UTC 18.0N 145.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 311800UTC 19.6N 140.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 281500
WARNING 281500.
WARNING VALID 291500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 1000 HPA
AT 16.7N 154.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 17.4N 152.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 17.6N 150.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 16.7N 154.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 17.6N 150.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 301200UTC 17.9N 146.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 311200UTC 19.1N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180828133245
2018082812 25W JEBI 006 01 305 09 SATL 050
T000 166N 1553E 040 R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 175N 1535E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T024 179N 1514E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 105 NW QD
T036 181N 1492E 070 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 184N 1469E 080 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 196N 1422E 095 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 215N 1387E 110 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 242N 1369E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 155.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 155.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.5N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.4N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.6N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 154.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM SOUTH OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 161N1561E 35
2518082812 166N1553E 40


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 155.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 155.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.5N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.4N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.6N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 154.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM SOUTH OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 281200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 281200UTC 16.5N 155.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 291200UTC 17.3N 151.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 301200UTC 17.7N 147.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 311200UTC 19.2N 143.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 011200UTC 21.1N 139.8E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
120HR
POSITION 021200UTC 23.6N 136.7E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 1000 HPA
AT 16.6N 155.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 17.5N 153.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 17.8N 151.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.9N 146.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 311200UTC AT 19.1N 141.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 155.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 16.6N 155.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 17.8N 151.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 301200UTC 17.9N 146.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 311200UTC 19.1N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 011200UTC 21.1N 138.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
120HF 021200UTC 23.9N 136.1E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 16.6N 155.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 17.8N 151.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 301200UTC 17.9N 146.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 311200UTC 19.1N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 1000 HPA
AT 16.3N 156.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 17.3N 154.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 17.6N 152.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 16.3N 156.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 17.6N 152.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 300600UTC 18.0N 148.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 310600UTC 19.0N 143.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180828074529
2018082806 25W JEBI 005 01 315 10 SATL 060
T000 162N 1562E 035 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 171N 1546E 045 R034 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 035 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 178N 1527E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 105 NW QD
T036 181N 1505E 070 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 185N 1484E 080 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 197N 1436E 100 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 212N 1403E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 237N 1382E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 156.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 156.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.1N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.8N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.1N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.5N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 155.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1569E 35
2518082806 162N1562E 35


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 156.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 156.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.1N 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.8N 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.1N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.5N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 155.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280600UTC 16.1N 156.3E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 37KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 290600UTC 17.1N 152.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 300600UTC 17.4N 149.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 310600UTC 18.5N 145.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 010600UTC 20.4N 141.2E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 020600UTC 22.6N 137.7E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 1000 HPA
AT 16.2N 156.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 17.1N 154.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 17.7N 152.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 18.0N 148.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310600UTC AT 19.0N 143.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS JEBI IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 156.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 16.2N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 17.7N 152.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 300600UTC 18.0N 148.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 310600UTC 19.0N 143.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 010600UTC 20.8N 139.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
120HF 020600UTC 23.1N 137.0E 290NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 16.2N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 17.7N 152.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 300600UTC 18.0N 148.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 310600UTC 19.0N 143.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) 1000 HPA
AT 15.8N 156.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 17.3N 153.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 15.8N 156.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 17.3N 153.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 300000UTC 17.7N 149.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 310000UTC 18.4N 145.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180828013927
2018082800 25W JEBI 004 01 305 14 SATL 025
T000 155N 1570E 035 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 167N 1555E 045 R034 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 030 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 174N 1538E 055 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 055 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 1519E 065 R064 035 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 182N 1500E 080 R064 035 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 191N 1458E 100 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 207N 1416E 110 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 224N 1392E 120 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.7N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.2N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 156.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 648 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30
2518082800 155N1570E 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.7N 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.2N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.1N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 156.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 648 NM EAST OF
SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 1821 JEBI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280000UTC 15.4N 157.0E
MOVEMENT NW 14KT
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 290000UTC 17.0N 153.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 300000UTC 17.2N 150.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 310000UTC 18.0N 146.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 010000UTC 19.8N 142.1E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 020000UTC 21.9N 138.6E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1004 HPA
AT 15.4N 157.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 16.9N 153.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 17.7N 149.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 18.4N 145.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1821 JEBI (1821)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (JEBI) STATUS. TS JEBI IS
LOCATED AT 15.4N, 157.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 15.4N 157.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 16.9N 153.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300000UTC 17.7N 149.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 310000UTC 18.4N 145.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 010000UTC 19.8N 141.4E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
120HF 020000UTC 21.7N 138.8E 290NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1821 JEBI (1821) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 15.4N 157.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 16.9N 153.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 300000UTC 17.7N 149.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 310000UTC 18.4N 145.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180827184936
2018082718 25W TWENTYFIVE 003 01 320 08 SATL 025
T000 147N 1582E 030
T012 161N 1567E 040 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 170N 1552E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 055 NW QD
T036 176N 1536E 060 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 065 NW QD
T048 180N 1516E 070 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 188N 1474E 095 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 203N 1431E 110 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 223N 1397E 110 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.1N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.0N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.6N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.0N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.8N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 157.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z
AND 282100Z.//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
2518082718 147N1582E 30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.1N 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.0N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.6N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.0N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.8N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.3N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 157.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180827131809
2018082712 25W TWENTYFIVE 002 01 330 09 SATL 040
T000 141N 1587E 030
T012 156N 1574E 040 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 168N 1557E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 175N 1541E 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 180N 1523E 085 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 187N 1484E 100 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 199N 1440E 110 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 216N 1398E 110 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 158.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 158.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.6N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.5N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.7N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 158.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 133N1592E 25
2518082712 141N1587E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 158.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 158.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.6N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.8N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.5N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.7N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.9N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.6N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 158.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 180827081310
2018082706 25W TWENTYFIVE 001 01 320 13 SATL 040
T000 134N 1590E 025
T012 151N 1578E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 165N 1563E 045 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 174N 1548E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T048 180N 1530E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 187N 1493E 095 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 197N 1452E 105 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 212N 1403E 105 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 159.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 159.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.1N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.5N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.4N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.0N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.7N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 158.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
//
2518082606 116N1613E 15
2518082612 118N1608E 15
2518082618 120N1603E 20
2518082700 124N1598E 20
2518082706 134N1590E 25


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZAUG2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 159.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 159.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.1N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.5N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 17.4N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.0N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.7N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 158.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND
280900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270200).//
NNNN