Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-10-12 21:47

WTPN32 PHNC 122200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 054

   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21E

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121800Z --- NEAR 28.5N 110.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 22 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 110.7W

    ---

REMARKS:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY

THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

NNNN



2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 122032

TCDEP1



REMNANTS OF SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  54

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



THE CENTER OF SERGIO MOVED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO AND NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ON

THIS BASIS, NHC HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE

REMNANTS OF SERGIO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 22 KT AND

COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN HEAVY SQUALLS.



SERGIO'S REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WHICH

COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES

WITHIN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. FLASH

FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT

SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO

 12H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED



..

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 122030 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

REMNANTS OF SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  54

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



...SERGIO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.3N 109.8W

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO WERE LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH (41 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION TONIGHT.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS

TERRAIN.



MOISTURE FROM SERGIO WILL AFFECT THE UNITED STATES, WITH TOTAL

RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND

SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.



2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 122030

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Remnants Of Sergio Advisory Number  54

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...SERGIO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.3N 109.8W

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Sergio were located near

latitude 29.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. The remnants are moving

toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is

expected to continue until dissipation tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  The remnants of Sergio will likely produce total rain

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8

inches over northwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause

life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous

terrain.



Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total

rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and

southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.

This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on this system.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 122030

TCMEP1



REMNANTS OF SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  54

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 109.8W AT 12/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  22 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 109.8W AT 12/2100Z

AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 110.7W



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 109.8W



THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.



..

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-12 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 121747 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 53A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1200 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



...SERGIO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION...





SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.4N 111.0W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNINGS.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. SERGIO

IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,

SERGIO OR ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT

LOW WHILE MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.



2018-10-12 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 121747

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 53A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...SERGIO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION...





SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.4N 111.0W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has discontinued all the Tropical Storm

Warnings.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sergio

was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 111.0 West. Sergio

is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this

general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,

Sergio or its remnants will continue to move over northwestern

Mexico later today and tonight.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)

with higher gusts. Sergio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant

low while moving over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over

northwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.



Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total

rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and

southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.

This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still occuring

primarily to the north and east of the track of Sergio. These winds

will continue to diminish today.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio could still affect much

of the Baja California peninsula today and the Sea of Cortez, likely

causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-12 16:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121545 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  53...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



CORRECTED TO ADD THE WORD HOURS IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK



...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...

............STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

    PENINSULA

    AND

INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

.......... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

    EUGENIA

    TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

.......... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.



INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE



2018-10-12 16:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121545 CCA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  53...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



Corrected to add the word hours in the first paragraph of

Discussion and Outlook



...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND

INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.



Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the

forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of

Cortez during the next several hours and then move over northwestern

Mexico later today or tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and

degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico.

Dissipation should occur on Saturday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the

Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as

Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland

Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over

Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through

today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding

and mudslides in mountainous terrain.



Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total

rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and

southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.

This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of

the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread

northeastward this morning.  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are

already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja

California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-12 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 121556



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2018



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N  71.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 12.10.2018    0  39.4N  71.3W      982            51

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   12              CEASED TRACKING



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N  29.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 12.10.2018    0  32.5N  29.8W      965            66

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   12  34.9N  22.2W      964            73

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   24  38.2N  14.7W      973            66

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   36  42.6N   8.2W      987            45

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   48  46.4N   4.2W      995            40

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   60              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N  35.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 12.10.2018    0  15.9N  35.6W     1003            45

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   12  16.1N  38.2W     1009            38

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   24  16.2N  41.2W     1013            32

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   36              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 113.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 12.10.2018    0  26.2N 113.2W      996            42

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   12  29.5N 109.5W     1003            24

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   24              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.3N 101.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 17.10.2018  120  15.3N 101.8W     1005            26

    0000UTC 18.10.2018  132  15.5N 102.4W     1003            30

    1200UTC 18.10.2018  144  15.9N 103.6W     1002            31



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.4N 114.4W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 18.10.2018  132  11.9N 114.1W     1006            24

    1200UTC 18.10.2018  144  12.5N 113.9W     1007            22



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.1N 136.1W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 18.10.2018  144  12.7N 136.6W     1007            26





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 121556



2018-10-12 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 121556



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2018



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N  71.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 12.10.2018  39.4N  71.3W   MODERATE

 00UTC 13.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N  29.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 12.10.2018  32.5N  29.8W    STRONG

 00UTC 13.10.2018  34.9N  22.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  38.2N  14.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  42.6N   8.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  46.4N   4.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N  35.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.9N  35.6W     WEAK

 00UTC 13.10.2018  16.1N  38.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  16.2N  41.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 113.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 12.10.2018  26.2N 113.2W   MODERATE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  29.5N 109.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.3N 101.8W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 17.10.2018  15.3N 101.8W     WEAK

 00UTC 18.10.2018  15.5N 102.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 18.10.2018  15.9N 103.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.4N 114.4W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 18.10.2018  11.9N 114.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 18.10.2018  12.5N 113.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.1N 136.1W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 18.10.2018  12.7N 136.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 121556



2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 121457

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  53

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



THE CENTER OF SERGIO CROSSED THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IS NOW MOVING OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ.

THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE

STILL VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THE

AUTOMATIC STATIONS OF THE MEXICAN NAVY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35

KT. THE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, AND SERGIO WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.



SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN

THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL

DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,

SONORA, PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE U.S. SOUTHERN

PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS

POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 24H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED



..

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121455 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  53

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...

.........STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

    AND

INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... .





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

....... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA

    TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

....... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.



INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE

FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SERGIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SEA OF



2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121455

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  53

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND

INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... .





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.



Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the

forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of

Cortez during the next several and then move over northwestern

Mexico later today or tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and

degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico.

Dissipation should occur on Saturday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the

Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as

Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland

Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over

Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through

today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding

and mudslides in mountainous terrain.



Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total

rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and

southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.

This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of

the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread

northeastward this morning.  Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are

already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja

California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 121455

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  53

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  21 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.

12 FT SEAS..  0NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z

AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 112.8W



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 111.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z



....

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-12 15:32

WTPN32 PHNC 121600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 053

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 112.8W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 21 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 112.8W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 29.5N 109.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

121600Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 111.5W.

TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 122200Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-12 12:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121138 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

600 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST...





SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE

FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE



2018-10-12 12:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121138

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 52A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST...





SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



A Tropical Storm Warning means in this case that tropical storm

conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the

forecast track, the center of Sergio will continue to cross the

central portion of the Baja California peninsula this morning, and

then move over mainland northwestern Mexico later tonight.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression

later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over

northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or

Sunday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over

Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through

today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding

and mudslides in mountainous terrain.



Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total

rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and

southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.

This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of

the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread

northeastward this morning.  Gusty winds could reach the coast

of mainland Mexico tonight.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja

California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120855 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  52

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



SERGIO'S CLOUD SHIELD IS WELL SEPARATED FROM THE POORLY ORGANIZED

SURFACE CIRCULATION AND IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD A REDUCTION IN THE

INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO COOL OCEANIC SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, BUT

SERGIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKE LANDFALL

IN THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. AFTERWARD, SERGIO

SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME A DEPRESSION AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT

TRAVERSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF

SONORA.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD, OR 045/21

KT, WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST AT AN ACCELERATED RATE OF SPEED.  A 36 HOUR

POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW POINT IS MAINTAINED TO SIMPLY REPRESENT

THE INLAND MOTION OF SERGIO.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF

THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS, AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE

OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,

SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM



2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120855

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  52

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



Sergio's cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized

surface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant.

Subjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the

initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.



Weakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea

surface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but

Sergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall

in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio

should quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it

traverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of

Sonora.



The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21

kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a

mid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast.

This synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the

northeast at an accelerated rate of speed.  A 36 hour

post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent

the inland motion of Sergio.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of

the various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update

of the previous package.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.

For more information about this potential hazard, see products from

the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast

office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 24H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120854 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  52

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018



...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR...

....RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE

NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

.. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

.. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL



2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120854

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  52

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR...

...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE

NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 113.8 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the

forecast track, the center of Sergio will make landfall in the

Pacific coast of Baja California Sur later this morning and then

move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Gradual weakening should continue today, but

Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California

peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression,

and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over the the

northwestern Mexico state of Sonora.  Dissipation should occur

Saturday night or Sunday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over

Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through

Friday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding

and mudslides in mountainous terrain.



Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total

rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and

southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.

This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later

tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the

peninsula tonight or early Friday.  Gusty winds could reach the

coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja

California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.

Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 120852

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  52

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 12/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  21 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 12/0900Z

AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 114.7W



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 113.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z



....

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-12 06:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120545 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 51A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1100 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE

NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE



2018-10-12 06:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120545

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 51A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE

NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W

ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general

motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.  On the

forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast

of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland

northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening should begin later tonight, but Sergio is

still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a

tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression before reaching

Sonora.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6

inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from

this weekend into Monday.  This rainfall could cause life-

threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later

tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the

peninsula tonight or early Friday.  Gusty winds could reach the

coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja

California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-12 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 120357



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N  35.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 12.10.2018    0  30.2N  35.7W      969            64

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   12  32.0N  30.5W      969            64

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   24  33.1N  23.9W      971            70

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   36  34.0N  18.6W      979            61

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   48  33.1N  15.8W      997            41

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   60  31.7N  15.7W     1006            32

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   72  30.6N  15.9W     1010            29

    1200UTC 15.10.2018   84  29.5N  17.4W     1013            25

    0000UTC 16.10.2018   96              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N  77.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 12.10.2018    0  36.7N  77.3W      990            40

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   12  39.4N  71.0W      984            53

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   24  42.6N  61.5W      977            53

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   36  45.7N  48.7W      980            49

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   48  47.3N  33.9W      984            44

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   60  47.1N  22.7W      991            41

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   72  46.7N  16.0W     1001            33

    1200UTC 15.10.2018   84              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N  34.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 12.10.2018    0  15.0N  34.7W     1001            43

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   12  15.2N  36.6W     1007            35

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   24  15.2N  38.4W     1009            33

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   36  15.3N  41.1W     1012            31

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   48              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 116.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 12.10.2018    0  23.6N 116.6W      988            48

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   12  26.4N 113.4W      992            45

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   24  29.0N 109.4W     1001            23

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   36              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 134.1W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 17.10.2018  120  12.4N 134.6W     1006            24

    1200UTC 17.10.2018  132  12.7N 135.5W     1006            26

    0000UTC 18.10.2018  144  12.7N 136.6W     1004            25



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.9N 101.0W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 17.10.2018  132  15.9N 101.0W     1003            34

    0000UTC 18.10.2018  144  15.8N 102.0W      998            40





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 120357



2018-10-12 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 120357



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N  35.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 12.10.2018  30.2N  35.7W    STRONG

 12UTC 12.10.2018  32.0N  30.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  33.1N  23.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  34.0N  18.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  33.1N  15.8W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  31.7N  15.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  30.6N  15.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  29.5N  17.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N  77.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 12.10.2018  36.7N  77.3W   MODERATE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  39.4N  71.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  42.6N  61.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  45.7N  48.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  47.3N  33.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  47.1N  22.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  46.7N  16.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N  34.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 12.10.2018  15.0N  34.7W     WEAK

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.2N  36.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  15.2N  38.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  15.3N  41.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 116.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 12.10.2018  23.6N 116.6W   MODERATE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  26.4N 113.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  29.0N 109.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 134.1W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 17.10.2018  12.4N 134.6W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 17.10.2018  12.7N 135.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 18.10.2018  12.7N 136.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.9N 101.0W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 17.10.2018  15.9N 101.0W     WEAK

 00UTC 18.10.2018  15.8N 102.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 120357



2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120250 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  51

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE WITH SERGIO DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL PATCH REMAINING IN THE

NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  STILL, THE CIRCULATION OF SERGIO IS FAIRLY

LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN.  THE

INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT, ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE

SATELLITE ESTIMATES SINCE WE HAVEN'T HAD ASCAT DATA IN QUITE SOME

TIME.  WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO COOL WATERS AND

INCREASING SHEAR. SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A

TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD WEAKEN FASTER WHILE IT INTERACTS

WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN, THEN REACHING THE STATE OF SONORA AS A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND DISSIPATING SOON THEREAFTER.



SERGIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KT. MODELS ARE VERY

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK AND SPEED, STAYING VIRTUALLY

UNCHANGED UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS OR SO.  NOTE THAT THE

36-HOUR POINT IS MERELY A PLACE HOLDER FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE

CYCLONE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,

SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM

THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

FORECAST OFFICE.



2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120250

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  51

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



Deep convection has been on the wane with Sergio during the past

several hours with a relatively small patch remaining in the

northern semicircle.  Still, the circulation of Sergio is fairly

large and vigorous and will take some time to spin down.  The

initial wind speed is held at 50 kt, on the high side of the

satellite estimates since we haven't had ASCAT data in quite some

time.  Weakening should commence overnight due to cool waters and

increasing shear. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a

tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula

on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while it interacts

with the high terrain, then reaching the state of Sonora as a

tropical depression and dissipating soon thereafter.



Sergio continues moving northeastward at 20 kt. Models are very

tightly clustered on this track and speed, staying virtually

unchanged until dissipation by 36 hours or so.  Note that the

36-hour point is merely a place holder for the remnants of the

cyclone.  No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.

For more information about this potential hazard, see products from

the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather

forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/0300Z 24.7N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 24H  13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 36H  13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120249 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  51

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.7N 115.4W

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS TRACK IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

CENTER OF SERGIO WILL BE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA



2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120249

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  51

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.7N 115.4W

ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 115.4 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is

expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the

center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California

Sur early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday

evening.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher

gusts. Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is

still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a

tropical storm, but weaken to a tropical depression before reaching

Sonora.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6

inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from

this weekend into Monday.  This rainfall could cause life-

threatening flash flooding.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight,

and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula

tonight or early Friday.  Gusty winds could reach the coast of

mainland Mexico late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja

California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 120249 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z

AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 116.2W



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED



2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 120249

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z

AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 116.2W



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 115.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-10-12 00:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 112333 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

500 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...SERGIO APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.1N 116.0W

ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS TRACK IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

CENTER OF SERGIO WILL BE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA



2018-10-12 00:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 112333

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 50A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

500 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...SERGIO APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.1N 116.0W

ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 116.0 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is

expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the

center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California

Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by

Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is

still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a

tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum

amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,

particularly in the Southern Plains.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight

and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula

tonight or early Friday.  These conditions could reach the coast of

mainland Mexico late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 112037 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  50

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SERGIO CONSISTS OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SWIRL

OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A BAND IN

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  IN FACT, THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE

RESEMBLES A CYCLONE THAT HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS.  CONVECTION HAS DECREASED, AND DVORAK NUMBERS NOW

SUPPORT A LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SERGIO'S CIRCULATION IS

ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS INCREASING, SO WEAKENING

SHOULD CONTINUE FROM NOW ON.  SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO STILL

BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD WEAKEN FASTER WHILE INTERACTS WITH

THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THEN REACH THE STATE OF SONORA AS A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.



SERGIO HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD

THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KT. SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE

NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE, THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE

UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OS SO.  TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO

BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF SERGIO

OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A

LITTLE MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,

SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OZARKS THROUGH THE



2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 112037

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  50

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



The cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl

of low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in

the northern semicircle.  In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite

resembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical

characteristics.  Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now

support a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is

already over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening

should continue from now on.  Sergio, however, is expected to still

be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula

on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with

the high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical

depression followed by dissipation.



Sergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward

the northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are

not expected to change, the general motion should continue

until dissipation in about 36 hours os so.  Track models continue to

be in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio

over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a

little more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the

weekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see

products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather

forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 36H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 48H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 112036 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  50

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.5N 116.7W

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H) AND THIS TRACK

IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE



2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 112036

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  50

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.5N 116.7W

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the

next 12 to 18 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this track

is expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the

center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California

Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by

Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

No significant change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but

Sergio is over cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.

Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California

peninsula as a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum

amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,

particularly in the Southern Plains.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight

and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula

tonight or early Friday.  These conditions could reach the coast of

mainland Mexico late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 112035 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  50

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z

AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 112035

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  50

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z

AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 116.7W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-11 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 111735 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1100 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST. SERGIO

HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H). THIS TRACK WITH A CONTINUED



2018-10-11 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 111735

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 49A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the

next 12 to 18 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio

has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the

northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This track with a continued

increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or

so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be

near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or

early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but

Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should

then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja

California peninsula as a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum

amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,

particularly in the Southern Plains.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight

and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early

Friday.  These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico

late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-11 16:34

WTNT82 EGRR 111556



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N  39.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.10.2018    0  28.8N  39.5W      970            61

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   12  30.3N  35.9W      959            68

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   24  32.0N  30.7W      962            68

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   36  33.0N  24.2W      964            73

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   48  33.6N  19.0W      974            63

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   60  32.5N  17.1W      994            44

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   72  31.3N  17.2W     1004            33

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   84  30.3N  17.8W     1007            34

    1200UTC 15.10.2018   96  29.2N  19.5W     1011            25

    0000UTC 16.10.2018  108  28.5N  21.0W     1014            24

    1200UTC 16.10.2018  120  28.5N  22.5W     1017            21

    0000UTC 17.10.2018  132              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N  81.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.10.2018    0  34.0N  81.6W      986            38

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   12  36.4N  77.5W      986            43

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   24  39.1N  71.3W      979            52

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   36  42.2N  61.6W      970            58

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   48  44.9N  48.7W      979            53

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   60  46.4N  34.0W      988            46

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   72  46.5N  23.3W      996            39

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   84              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N  33.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.10.2018    0  14.0N  33.5W      997            53

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   12  14.2N  34.9W     1003            39

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   24  14.5N  36.1W     1007            33

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   36  14.8N  37.8W     1009            33

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   48  15.0N  40.8W     1012            32

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   60              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 119.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.10.2018    0  20.9N 119.7W      977            57

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   12  23.3N 116.5W      980            56

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   24  25.6N 113.2W      982            56

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   36  28.1N 109.9W      996            32

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   48              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.4N 136.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 17.10.2018  144  12.4N 136.8W     1007            22



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N  93.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 17.10.2018  144  14.5N  93.7W     1005            41





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 111556



2018-10-11 16:34

WTNT80 EGRR 111556



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N  39.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.8N  39.5W    STRONG

 00UTC 12.10.2018  30.3N  35.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  32.0N  30.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  33.0N  24.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  33.6N  19.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  32.5N  17.1W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  31.3N  17.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  30.3N  17.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  29.2N  19.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.10.2018  28.5N  21.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.10.2018  28.5N  22.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 17.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N  81.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 11.10.2018  34.0N  81.6W   MODERATE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  36.4N  77.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  39.1N  71.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  42.2N  61.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  44.9N  48.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  46.4N  34.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  46.5N  23.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N  33.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 11.10.2018  14.0N  33.5W   MODERATE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.2N  34.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  14.5N  36.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  14.8N  37.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  15.0N  40.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 119.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 11.10.2018  20.9N 119.7W    STRONG

 00UTC 12.10.2018  23.3N 116.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  25.6N 113.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  28.1N 109.9W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.4N 136.8W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 17.10.2018  12.4N 136.8W     WEAK



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N  93.7W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 17.10.2018  14.5N  93.7W     WEAK





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 111556



2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 111439 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  49

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION WITH A

COUPLE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED HOOKING BANDS, HOWEVER THE CONVECTION

IN THESE BANDS IS WEAK TO MODERATE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT

THE INITIAL INTENSITY STILL IS 55 KT. SERGIO IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER

COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY,

SO THE EXPECTED WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.

NEVERTHELESS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT

MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE

ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND OVER THE

STATE OF SONORA.



SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST

ABOUT 17 KT. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH

LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL

CONTINUE TO STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED. TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND

UNANIMOUSLY BRING SERGIO OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,

SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OZARKS THROUGH THE

WEEKEND.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE

PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER



2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 111439

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  49

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to show organization with a

couple of cyclonically curved hooking bands, however the convection

in these bands is weak to moderate.  Dvorak estimates suggest that

the initial intensity still is 55 kt. Sergio is about to move over

cooler waters and the shear is forecast to increase significantly,

so the expected weakening process should begin later today.

Nevertheless, the cyclone should still be a tropical storm when it

moves over the Baja California peninsula, but it should dissipate

once it moves over the high terrain of the Mexican mainland over the

state of Sonora.



Satellite fixes indicate that Sergio is moving toward the northeast

about 17 kt. The storm is embedded within the deep-layer

southwesterly flow associated with a broad mid-latitude trough

located just off the U.S. west coast. This flow pattern will

continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in

forward speed. Track models are in excellent agreement and

unanimously bring Sergio over the central portion of the Baja

California peninsula in about 24 hours and so does the official

forecast.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the

weekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see

products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather

forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/1500Z 22.2N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 48H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 111439 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  49

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A HURRY...

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 118.7W

ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK



2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 111439

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  49

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A HURRY...

HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 118.7W

ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for

the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista and has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Watch south of Mulege.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to

Bahia San Juan Bautista.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the

next 12 to 24 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This track with a

continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next

couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will

approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and

then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast through today, but

Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should

then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja

California peninsula as a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum

amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,

particularly in the Southern Plains.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight

and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early

Friday.  These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico

late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 111438 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  17 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 270SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z

AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 119.4W



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 111438

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  49

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR

THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO

BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  17 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 270SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z

AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 119.4W



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 118.7W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-11 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 111144 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

500 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

..............HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND

    THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.5N 119.3W

ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

............ WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

    EUGENIA

    TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

............ EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA

    SAN

    JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS



2018-10-11 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 111144

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 48A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

500 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

...HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.5N 119.3W

ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 119.3 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northeastward

motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during

the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of

Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early

Friday and then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but

Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should

then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja

California peninsula as a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum

amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,

particularly in the Southern Plains.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch

area tonight or early Friday.  These winds could reach the coast of

mainland Mexico by late Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 110837 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  48

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS, AND THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND

SAB HAVEN'T CHANGED EITHER.  A PARTIAL ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS

REVEALED NUMEROUS 45-KT WINDS AND A 50-KT NORTHERLY WIND IN THE

COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OF THE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH

PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A COMBINATION

OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, A DRIER AND MORE STABLE

SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES

SHOULD INFLUENCE SOME WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER

BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE

OF SONORA EARLY SATURDAY.  AFTERWARD, RAPID WEAKENING, AND

ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION, IS EXPECTED AFTER SERGIO MAKES ITS SECOND

LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE MAINLAND MEXICO.  A 72 HOUR

POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW POINT IS MAINTAINED TO SIMPLY REPRESENT

THE INLAND MOTION OF SERGIO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE

AGAIN BASED ON THE NOAA-HCCA, AND THE GFS/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH

SHOW SERGIO MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD, OR 050/15

KT, WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN

PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE



2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 110837

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  48

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several

hours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and

SAB haven't changed either.  A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass

revealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the

coldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north

portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial

intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.



The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  A combination

of increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable

surrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures

should influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California

peninsula.  The cyclone is expected to move inland over

Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state

of Sonora early Saturday.  Afterward, rapid weakening, and

ultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second

landfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico.  A 72 hour

post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent

the inland motion of Sergio.  The intensity forecast is once

again based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which

show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.



The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15

kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a

mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern

Pacific from the southwestern United States.  Sergio should continue

moving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with

a continued increase in forward speed.  Sergio will be approaching

the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the

tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.

The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered

guidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the

weekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see

products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather

forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 48H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 72H  14/0600Z 35.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 110836 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  48

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018



...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY

RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE

UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.0N 120.2W

ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS



2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 110836

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  48

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY

RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE

UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.0N 120.2W

ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 120.2 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northeastward

motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during

the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will

approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and

then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but

gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days.

Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California

peninsula as a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts

of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California

and Sonora through Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum

amounts of 6 inches.  This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,

particularly in the Southern Plains.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

by tonight.  Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch

area tonight or early Friday.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 110836 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z

AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.8W



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W



2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 110836

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  15 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z

AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.8W



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.3N  96.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 120.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-11 06:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 110531 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1100 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.5N 120.9W

ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS



2018-10-11 06:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 110531

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 47A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.5N 120.9W

ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 120.9 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northeastward

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach

the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach

mainland Mexico late Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, but

gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.

Sergio is forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as

a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches

across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through

Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of

6 inches possible.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas

Thursday night.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-11 04:35

WTNT82 EGRR 110356



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N  41.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.10.2018    0  27.7N  41.7W      974            59

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   12  28.6N  39.8W      969            65

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   24  30.0N  36.4W      963            66

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   36  31.6N  31.6W      967            63

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   48  32.5N  25.6W      971            65

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   60  32.6N  21.1W      980            57

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   72  31.4N  20.1W      994            41

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   84  30.2N  20.9W     1002            36

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   96  28.8N  22.5W     1005            31

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  108  27.8N  24.9W     1007            30

    0000UTC 16.10.2018  120  27.8N  27.8W     1007            32

    1200UTC 16.10.2018  132  28.3N  30.5W     1002            37

    0000UTC 17.10.2018  144  28.6N  32.3W     1000            40



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N  84.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.10.2018    0  31.4N  84.6W      968            44

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   12  34.1N  81.5W      980            40

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   24  36.4N  77.1W      983            44

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   36  39.1N  71.3W      977            53

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   48  42.2N  61.9W      969            63

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   60  45.0N  49.4W      975            57

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   72  46.6N  34.9W      984            48

    1200UTC 14.10.2018   84  46.6N  22.8W      991            46

    0000UTC 15.10.2018   96  46.7N  15.4W     1000            34

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  108              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N  32.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.10.2018    0  13.3N  32.6W     1000            50

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   12  13.5N  33.7W     1006            37

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   24  14.2N  34.9W     1009            33

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   36  14.6N  36.3W     1011            27

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   48  14.7N  38.2W     1012            29

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   60  15.2N  41.1W     1013            27

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   72              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 122.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.10.2018    0  19.1N 122.4W      970            60

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   12  21.1N 119.5W      969            64

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   24  23.6N 116.7W      974            60

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   36  25.8N 113.4W      985            52

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   48  28.4N 110.2W      997            28

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   60              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 110356



2018-10-11 04:35

WTNT80 EGRR 110356



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N  41.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.7N  41.7W    STRONG

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.6N  39.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  30.0N  36.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.6N  31.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  32.5N  25.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  32.6N  21.1W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  31.4N  20.1W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  30.2N  20.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  28.8N  22.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  27.8N  24.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.10.2018  27.8N  27.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.10.2018  28.3N  30.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 17.10.2018  28.6N  32.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N  84.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.10.2018  31.4N  84.6W    STRONG

 12UTC 11.10.2018  34.1N  81.5W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  36.4N  77.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  39.1N  71.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  42.2N  61.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  45.0N  49.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  46.6N  34.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  46.6N  22.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  46.7N  15.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N  32.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.10.2018  13.3N  32.6W   MODERATE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  13.5N  33.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.2N  34.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  14.6N  36.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  14.7N  38.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  15.2N  41.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 122.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.10.2018  19.1N 122.4W    STRONG

 12UTC 11.10.2018  21.1N 119.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  23.6N 116.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  25.8N 113.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  28.4N 110.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 110356



2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 110241 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  47

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED AND

ELONGATED BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS

ENCIRCLING THE PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE.  THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, HOWEVER, STILL YIELD AN INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 55 KT.



THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS

INCREASED TO 15-20 KT, AND THE DECAY-SHIPS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO

NEAR 50 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS INHIBITING UPPER WIND PATTERN

ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES SHOULD INFLUENCE

SOME FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA.  SERGIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA

SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA EARLY

SATURDAY AS A DEPRESSION.  AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SERGIO

IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL WEAK LOW OVER

THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON

THE NOAA-HCCA, AND THE GFS/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SERGIO

MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD, OR 050/14 KT,

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE 72 HOUR

PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  SERGIO WILL BE

APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE



2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 110241

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  47

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



This evening's satellite presentation depicts a rather ragged and

elongated banding eye-like feature with fragmented curved bands

encircling the periphery of cyclone.  The subjective intensity

estimates from TAFB and SAB, however, still yield an initial

intensity of 55 kt.



The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that the westerly shear has

increased to 15-20 kt, and the Decay-SHIPS as well as the global

models indicate that the shear magnitude will increase further to

near 50 kt prior to landfall.  This inhibiting upper wind pattern

along with slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence

some further weakening as it approaches the Baja California

peninsula.  Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California

Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early

Saturday as a depression.  At the end of the forecast period, Sergio

is expected to further degenerate into a post-tropical weak low over

the southwestern United States.  The intensity forecast is based on

the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models which show Sergio

making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.



The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/14 kt,

and this general motion is forecast through the entire 72 hour

period with a continued increase in forward speed.  Sergio will be

approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although

the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.

There is continued high confidence in the forecast track as the

available large-scale and hurricane models are clustered tightly

together through 72 hours.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of

the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the

weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see

products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather

forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/0300Z 20.0N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 48H  13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 72H  14/0000Z 34.4N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 110240 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  47

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS

EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE

UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.0N 121.5W

ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR



2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 110240

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  47

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS

EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE

UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.0N 121.5W

ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch

along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta

Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to a Tropical Storm Warning.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 121.5 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northeastward

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach

the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach

mainland Mexico late Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but

gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.

Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California peninsula as a

tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches

across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through

Friday.  This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total

rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of

6 inches possible



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas

Thursday night.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 110239 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z

AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W



2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 110239

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z

AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...100NE 130SE  90SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.4N  98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 121.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-11 00:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 102351 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

500 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...SERGIO HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED

ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED

STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 122.1W

ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF

THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. SERGIO IS



2018-10-11 00:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 102351

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 46A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

500 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...SERGIO HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED

ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED

STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 122.1W

ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.  A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of

the watch area later tonight.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach

the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach

mainland Mexico late Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight and

Thursday, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next

several days.  Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California

peninsula as a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches

across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and

Sonora.  This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States.  Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,

with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas

by Thursday night.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 102040 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED DURING

THE DAY, EXCEPT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN.

NEVERTHELESS, DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE

LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER RELATIVELY

WARM WATERS AND IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SINCE BOTH

OF THESE FACTORS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS,

THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING. SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED

TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER THAT TIME, SERGIO WILL MOVE OVER

MAINLAND MEXICO AND WEAKEN MUCH FASTER.



SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE

CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED

WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL

CONTINUE TO STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF A WEAKENED

SERGIO OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN

ABOUT A DAY AND HALF, BUT WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT

EARLIER. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND

CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS QUITE TIGHT. THE NHC FORECAST

REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN



2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 102040

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  46

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during

the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.

Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an

initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are

likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively

warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both

of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,

the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected

to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja

California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over

mainland Mexico and weaken much faster.



Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The

cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated

with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will

continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in

forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened

Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in

about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit

earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and

consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast

remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,

Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the

weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see

products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather

forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 72H  13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 102040 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  46

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED

ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED

STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 122.4W

ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF

THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.4 WEST. SERGIO IS



2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 102040

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  46

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED

ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED

STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 122.4W

ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.  A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of

the watch area later tonight.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 122.4 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach

the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach

mainland Mexico late Friday.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Thursday,

but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several

days.  Sergio is expected to reach the Baja California peninsula as

a tropical storm.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches

across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and

Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into

portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,

with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas

by Thursday night.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 102039 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF

THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z

AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 123.1W



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W



2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 102039

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF

THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z

AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 123.1W



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 122.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-10 18:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 101733 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1100 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W

ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON

LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST. SERGIO IS



2018-10-10 18:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 101733

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 45A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W

ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on

later tonight or Thursday.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward

motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next

few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach

the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach

mainland Mexico late Friday.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but gradual

weakening is forecast during the next several days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches

across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and

Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move

into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,

with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 101445 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  45

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH,

AND IT CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND SURROUNDING

A LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS WEAKER, THE

DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING, AND

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS

IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE

CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS EMBEDDED

IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BECOME

UNFAVORABLE SOON, AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR

WEAKENING.  SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL

STORM BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER

THAT TIME, SERGIO WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND WEAKEN MUCH

FASTER.



SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE

CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED

WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL

CONTINUE TO STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF A WEAKENED

SERGIO OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN

ABOUT 2 DAYS, BUT WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE

EARLIER. TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONSEQUENTLY

THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS QUITE TIGHT. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT

DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE.



THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES



2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 101445

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



The cloud pattern associated with Sergio has not changed very much,

and it consists of a cyclonically curved convective band surrounding

a large and ragged eye feature. Since the convection is weaker, the

Dvorak estimates suggest that winds are gradually decreasing, and

the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt.  Some fluctuations

in intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while the

cyclone is still moving over relatively warm waters and is embedded

in a low shear environment. Both of these factors will become

unfavorable soon, and consequently, the NHC forecast calls for

weakening.  Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical

storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After

that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much

faster.



Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 11 kt. The

cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated

with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will

continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in

forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened

Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in

about 2 days, but winds along the coast are anticipated to increase

earlier. Track models are in very good agreement, and consequently

the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not

different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance

envelope.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues

to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern

Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information

about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather

Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/1500Z 18.4N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 101444 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  45

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

...........HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE

    SOUTHERN

PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.4N 123.5W

ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

......... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

    EUGENIA

    TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

......... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN

    JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST. SERGIO IS



2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 101444

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  45

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.4N 123.5W

ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 123.5 West. Sergio is

moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward

motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during

the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will

approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and

then reach mainland Mexico late Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several

days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall

accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches

across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and

Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move

into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,

with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ21 KNHC 101444 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z

AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.0W



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ21 KNHC 101444

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z

AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.0W



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-10 12:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 101131 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

500 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W

ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



NONE.





SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS

ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. SERGIO IS



2018-10-10 12:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 101131

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 44A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W

ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.





SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 124.1 West. Sergio is

moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-

northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in

forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast

track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja

California Sur early Friday.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to

lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local

amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in

Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding

and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100842 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  44

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



THIS MORNING'S CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS LITTLE

CHANGE IN SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION RESIDES IN THE NORTH PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SOME

NEW BURSTS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AGAIN AT 60 KT, AND IS SUPPORTED BY

THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.



GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SOON

AS SERGIO BEGINS ITS TREK OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

AND INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND A

DRIER MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AFTER QUICKLY MOVING

OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, SERGIO SHOULD WEAKEN

FURTHER OVER THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, DEGENERATE

INTO A REMNANT LOW EARLY SUNDAY, AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH THIS DISSIPATION

COULD OCCUR SOONER, AS INDICATED IN THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODELS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 065/10

KT, WITHIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC

FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO

ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS, AND APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON EARLY FRIDAY. THE NHC

FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS

CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.



2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100842

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  44

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



This morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little

change in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep

convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some

new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the

initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by

the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates.



Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon

as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures

and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a

drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving

over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken

further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate

into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over

the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation

could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models.



The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10

kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a

mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific

from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to

accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few

days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC

forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is

close to the various multi-model consensus aids.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will

likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern

Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information

about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather

Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  97.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100841 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  44

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018



...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND WEST

COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

...............FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN

    MEXICO

AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 124.9W

ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG

THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

............. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

    EUGENIA

    TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

............. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA

    SAN

    JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA



2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100841

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  44

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND WEST

COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 124.9W

ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch

along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta

Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro.



The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along

the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to

Cabo San Lazaro



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan

Bautista to San Evaristo



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California

peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of

Sergio.  Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 124.9 West. Sergio is

moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-

northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in

forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast

track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja

California Sur early Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to

lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local

amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in

Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding

and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100837 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG

THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100837

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  44

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA

EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG

THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO

CABO SAN LAZARO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN

BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z

AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.2W



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW  30NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N  97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 124.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-10 04:39

WTNT82 EGRR 100400



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N  42.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 10.10.2018    0  29.7N  42.6W      976            55

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   12  28.1N  42.4W      974            58

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   24  27.8N  42.0W      964            67

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   36  28.4N  40.3W      956            69

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   48  29.7N  37.2W      952            73

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   60  31.0N  33.0W      956            78

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   72  31.4N  27.8W      966            68

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   84  30.9N  23.9W      978            62

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   96  29.2N  23.2W      994            40

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  108  27.6N  24.7W     1002            34

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  120  26.1N  27.0W     1005            33

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  132  24.7N  29.5W     1006            31

    0000UTC 16.10.2018  144  23.8N  31.2W     1005            32



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N  86.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 10.10.2018    0  26.7N  86.5W      970            64

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   12  28.7N  86.4W      966            63

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   24  31.1N  84.6W      967            46

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   36  33.6N  81.8W      977            45

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   48  35.9N  77.8W      980            46

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   60  38.6N  72.2W      975            61

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   72  42.0N  63.1W      969            65

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   84  46.1N  51.6W      967            58

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   96  48.4N  38.4W      975            52

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  108  49.2N  23.9W      980            45

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  120  48.7N  15.5W      983            45

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  132  46.6N   9.6W      995            35

    0000UTC 16.10.2018  144  44.7N   7.4W     1006            27



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N  30.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 10.10.2018    0  11.2N  30.5W     1003            39

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   12  12.2N  31.7W     1000            45

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   24  13.0N  32.3W      996            59

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   36  13.7N  32.6W      998            53

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   48  14.5N  33.4W     1002            45

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   60  15.0N  34.4W     1006            36

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   72  15.5N  36.1W     1009            31

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   84  16.3N  38.6W     1012            28

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   96  17.3N  41.3W     1013            29

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  108              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 126.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 10.10.2018    0  17.0N 126.6W      971            58

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   12  17.8N 124.9W      967            61

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   24  19.1N 122.4W      960            67

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   36  21.2N 119.6W      956            72

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   48  23.6N 116.9W      969            64

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   60  25.9N 113.9W      981            53

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   72  28.6N 110.3W      993            33

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   84  31.0N 103.9W     1004            19

    0000UTC 14.10.2018   96  32.5N  99.6W     1003            23

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  108  33.6N  95.9W     1007            21

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  120              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.5N  82.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  132  14.5N  82.5W     1006            28

    0000UTC 16.10.2018  144  14.1N  85.3W     1005            28





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 100400



2018-10-10 04:39

WTNT80 EGRR 100400



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2018



             HURRICANE LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N  42.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 10.10.2018  29.7N  42.6W    STRONG

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.1N  42.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.8N  42.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.4N  40.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  29.7N  37.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.0N  33.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  31.4N  27.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  30.9N  23.9W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  29.2N  23.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  27.6N  24.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  26.1N  27.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  24.7N  29.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.10.2018  23.8N  31.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N  86.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 10.10.2018  26.7N  86.5W    STRONG

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.7N  86.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  31.1N  84.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  33.6N  81.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  35.9N  77.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  38.6N  72.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  42.0N  63.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  46.1N  51.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  48.4N  38.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  49.2N  23.9W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  48.7N  15.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  46.6N   9.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 16.10.2018  44.7N   7.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N  30.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 10.10.2018  11.2N  30.5W     WEAK

 12UTC 10.10.2018  12.2N  31.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  13.0N  32.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  13.7N  32.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.5N  33.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.0N  34.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  15.5N  36.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  16.3N  38.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  17.3N  41.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 126.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 10.10.2018  17.0N 126.6W    STRONG

 12UTC 10.10.2018  17.8N 124.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  19.1N 122.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  21.2N 119.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  23.6N 116.9W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  25.9N 113.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  28.6N 110.3W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  31.0N 103.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  32.5N  99.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.10.2018  33.6N  95.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.5N  82.5W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 15.10.2018  14.5N  82.5W     WEAK

 00UTC 16.10.2018  14.1N  85.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 100400



2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100236 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  43

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



THE GOES-15 SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND AN EARLIER ATMS POLAR

ORBITER MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN SERGIO'S CLOUD

PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE

NORTH SEMICIRCLE IN THE FORM OF A RATHER LARGE CURVED BAND WHILE THE

SOUTHERN PORTION IS COMPRISED OF FRAGMENTED BANDS.  A BLEND OF THE

DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS, WHICH HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH,

SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 6-12

HOURS, AS SERGIO TRAVERSES RELATIVELY WARM OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND

REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.  AFTERWARD,

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING THROUGH

THE 48 PERIOD, OR PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER

COOLER WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL

SHEAR.  OVER THE WEEKEND, AFTER QUICKLY MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA

SUR, SERGIO WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE STATE OF SONORA IN

NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4, AND

DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/10

KT, WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN

PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE

TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS, MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY, AND OVER THE



2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100236

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  43

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



The GOES-15 satellite presentation and an earlier ATMS polar

orbiter microwave image revealed little change in Sergio's cloud

pattern during the past 6 hours.  Deep convection persists in the

north semicircle in the form of a rather large curved band while the

southern portion is comprised of fragmented bands.  A blend of the

Dvorak satellite classifications, which haven't changed much,

supports holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.



Very little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12

hours, as Sergio traverses relatively warm oceanic temperatures and

remains in a low shear surrounding environment.  Afterward,

statistical and dynamical intensity guidance shows weakening through

the 48 period, or prior to landfall, as the cyclone moves over

cooler waters and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical

shear.  Over the weekend, after quickly moving over Baja California

Sur, Sergio will weaken further over the state of Sonora in

northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, and

dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States.



The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/10

kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a

mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern

Pacific from the southwestern United States.  Sergio should continue

to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next

few days, moving over Baja California Sur on Friday, and over the

Gulf of California and into northwestern Mexico Friday night and

Saturday.



The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will

likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within

mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S.

Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend.  For more

information about this potential hazard, see products from the

Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0300Z 17.5N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 96H  14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100235 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  43

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W

ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H).  AN EAST-

NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST

TRACK, THE CENTER OF SERGIO WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  THROUGH SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

LEAD TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL



2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100235

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  43

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W

ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of

Sergio.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Sergio is

moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  An east-

northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in

forward speed is expected during the next few days.  On the forecast

track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja

California Sur on Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to

lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local

amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in

Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United

States.  This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and

mudslides within mountainous terrain.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula later today.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100234 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z

AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.1W



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100234

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z

AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.1W



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  80SE  60SW  40NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 092055 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  42

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



DAYS OF SLOW MOVEMENT AND COLD WATER UPWELLING APPEAR TO HAVE

FINALLY TAKEN A TOLL ON SERGIO.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WEST

SIDE OF THE CYCLONE HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING,

AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SERGIO'S EYEWALL IS NO

LONGER FULLY CLOSED.  DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE

DECREASED ACCORDINGLY AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY

60 KT.  A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS

OF ONLY 50-55 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE, AND

THESE DATA ALSO SUPPORT MAKING SERGIO A TROPICAL STORM.



THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/8 KT.

NO IMPORTANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS

MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL STORM WILL

LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE TRACK

CONSENSUS AT ALL TIMES AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.



NOW THAT SERGIO IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER, IT HAS A CHANCE TO MOVE

OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND 36

H, FASTER WEAKENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE STORM REACHES MUCH

COLDER WATERS AND THE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL STORM INCREASES.

RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER SERGIO MAKES ITS

FINAL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO, THOUGH A 96 H



2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 092055

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  42

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



Days of slow movement and cold water upwelling appear to have

finally taken a toll on Sergio.  Cloud top temperatures on the west

side of the cyclone have warmed considerably since this morning,

and microwave imagery indicates that Sergio's eyewall is no

longer fully closed.  Dvorak-based intensity estimates have

decreased accordingly and now support an initial intensity of only

60 kt.  A recent partial ASCAT overpass also showed maximum winds

of only 50-55 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and

these data also support making Sergio a tropical storm.



The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward, or 060/8 kt.

No important changes were made to the track forecast, which is

merely an update of the previous advisory.  The tropical storm will

likely continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast

over the next few days, before approaching the Baja California

peninsula on Friday. The NHC forecast remains near the track

consensus at all times and confidence in the track forecast is high.



Now that Sergio is moving a little faster, it has a chance to move

over slightly warmer waters during the next few hours.  The

intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement that little

additional weakening is likely for the next day or so.  Beyond 36

h, faster weakening is still possible as the storm reaches much

colder waters and the shear over the tropical storm increases.

Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected after Sergio makes its

final landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico, though a 96 h

point remnant low is maintained again in this advisory to represent

the inland movement of Sergio.  The NHC forecast is essentially an

average of the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at all forecast hours.



The biggest hazard associated with Sergio and its remnants will

likely be heavy rain that will affect portions of northwestern

Mexico and the U.S. Southern Plains through Sunday.  For more

information about this potential hazard, see products from the

Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/2100Z 16.9N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 092054 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  42

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.9N 126.5W

ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H).  AN EAST-

NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

CENTER OF SERGIO WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS IS

EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH



2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 092054

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number  42

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.9N 126.5W

ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of

Sergio.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was

located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 126.5 West. Sergio is

moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h).  An east-

northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is

expected during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the

center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of the Baja

California peninsula on Friday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next

several days.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall associated with Sergio and its remnants is

expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with

local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and

Sonora in Mexico as well as the Southern Plains and Ozarks of the

United States through Sunday.  This could lead to life-threatening

flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.



SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 092053 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z

AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.0W



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 092053

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z

AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.0W



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE 110SE  60SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 126.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-09 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 091558



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.10.2018



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N  43.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 09.10.2018    0  31.6N  43.5W      983            49

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   12  29.5N  43.1W      981            48

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   24  28.0N  43.2W      982            49

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   36  27.5N  42.7W      978            53

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   48  28.3N  41.2W      970            61

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   60  29.8N  38.2W      960            70

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   72  31.4N  33.9W      955            76

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   84  31.7N  29.0W      967            68

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   96  31.4N  25.1W      976            59

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  108  30.2N  24.4W      993            45

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  120  28.9N  25.8W     1002            38

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  132  27.7N  28.3W     1005            33

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  144  26.4N  30.5W     1006            32



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N  86.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 09.10.2018    0  24.6N  86.1W      966            70

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   12  26.5N  86.3W      966            69

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   24  28.5N  86.1W      964            68

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   36  30.7N  84.6W      963            50

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   48  33.0N  81.8W      974            49

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   60  35.5N  78.1W      976            51

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   72  38.0N  73.1W      971            64

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   84  41.1N  65.1W      964            65

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   96  45.3N  54.1W      964            62

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  108  47.9N  41.7W      973            54

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  120  49.2N  27.6W      979            49

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  132  49.6N  16.6W      979            47

    1200UTC 15.10.2018  144  47.2N  10.7W      995            36



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION :  9.9N  30.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 09.10.2018    0   9.9N  30.3W     1007            27

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   12  10.9N  31.0W     1004            37

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   24  11.9N  32.1W     1002            43

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   36  13.2N  32.8W      997            53

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   48  14.1N  33.4W      996            55

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   60  15.0N  34.1W     1001            46

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   72  15.8N  35.0W     1005            38

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   84  16.5N  36.3W     1008            34

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   96  17.3N  38.4W     1011            29

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  108  18.0N  40.8W     1012            29

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  120  18.6N  43.5W     1013            26

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  132              CEASED TRACKING



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 128.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 09.10.2018    0  16.2N 128.2W      979            54

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   12  16.7N 126.8W      978            51

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   24  17.7N 124.9W      973            58

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   36  18.9N 122.4W      967            64

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   48  20.8N 119.6W      961            68

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   60  23.2N 116.7W      967            64

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   72  25.5N 113.9W      978            56

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   84  28.1N 110.6W      987            40

    1200UTC 13.10.2018   96  30.9N 104.3W     1004            22

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  108              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 091558



2018-10-09 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 091558



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2018



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N  43.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 09.10.2018  31.6N  43.5W   MODERATE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  29.5N  43.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.0N  43.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.5N  42.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.3N  41.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  29.8N  38.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.4N  33.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  31.7N  29.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  31.4N  25.1W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  30.2N  24.4W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  28.9N  25.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  27.7N  28.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  26.4N  30.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N  86.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 09.10.2018  24.6N  86.1W    STRONG

 00UTC 10.10.2018  26.5N  86.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.5N  86.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  30.7N  84.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  33.0N  81.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  35.5N  78.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  38.0N  73.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  41.1N  65.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  45.3N  54.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  47.9N  41.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  49.2N  27.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  49.6N  16.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.10.2018  47.2N  10.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY



        TROPICAL STORM NADINE     ANALYSED POSITION :  9.9N  30.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 09.10.2018   9.9N  30.3W     WEAK

 00UTC 10.10.2018  10.9N  31.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  11.9N  32.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  13.2N  32.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  14.1N  33.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  15.0N  34.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.8N  35.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  16.5N  36.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  17.3N  38.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  18.0N  40.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.10.2018  18.6N  43.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 128.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 09.10.2018  16.2N 128.2W    STRONG

 00UTC 10.10.2018  16.7N 126.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  17.7N 124.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  18.9N 122.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  20.8N 119.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  23.2N 116.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  25.5N 113.9W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  28.1N 110.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  30.9N 104.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 091558



2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 091448 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  41

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



SERGIO APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED ITS SLOW WEAKENING.  CLOUD TOPS ON

THE WESTERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED, AND DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED.  HOWEVER, RECENT

AMSR-2 AND SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A

LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS.  THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND

CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON

ESTIMATE.



THERE HAS BEEN ALMOST NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND ONLY

VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 H.

BEYOND THAT TIME, SERGIO WILL PASS OVER COLDER SSTS, INCLUDING THE

STILL-PRESENT COLD WAKE OF FORMER HURRICANE ROSA, AND CONTINUED

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  SERGIO IS THEREFORE STILL FORECAST TO BE A

TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS.  RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER SERGIO

MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO LATE THIS

WEEK, AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR BECOME A REMNANT LOW

SHORTLY AFTER MOVING INLAND.



VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH

REMAINS NEAR THE TVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL

AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT SERGIO WILL ACCELERATE GENERALLY

NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.  THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE

MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT SPEED OF SERGIO THROUGH THAT TIME, BUT



2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 091448

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  41

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



Sergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening.  Cloud tops on

the western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak

classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased.  However, recent

AMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a

large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels.  The

initial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and

CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON

estimate.



There has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only

very gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h.

Beyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the

still-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued

weakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja

California peninsula.  Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a

tropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California

peninsula in a few days.  Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio

makes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this

week, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low

shortly after moving inland.



Virtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which

remains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  All of the global

and regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally

northeastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California

peninsula on Friday.  There is still some disagreement among the

models regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but

there is very little cross-track spread.  Confidence in the track

forecast is fairly high.



Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to

affect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United

States, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could

potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more

information about this potential hazard, see products from the

Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 091447 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  41

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.6N 127.4W

ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD

MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES

(220 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE



2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 091447

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  41

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.6N 127.4W

ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of

Sergio.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located

near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 127.4 West. Sergio is moving

toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward

motion is expected for the next several days.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next

several days.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 091447 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB

EYE DIAMETER  70 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 360SW 390NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z

AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.7W



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.



2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 091447

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB

EYE DIAMETER  70 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 360SW 390NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z

AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.7W



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 127.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 090838

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  40

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little in the past 6 hours and is

comprised of a fragmented, large outer ring, about 100 n mi in

diameter.  The coldest cloud tops are now confined to just the

southeast portion of cyclone's circulation.  The Dvorak satellite

intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the

initial intensity at 75 kt.



Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is

expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally

conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear

surrounding environment.  Afterward, the cyclone should enter a

region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing

southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening

and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall.  Sergio

is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and

into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday.  At

the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further

degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States.

The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the NOAA-HCCA and the

GFS and ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall as a

tropical storm.



Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to

affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United

States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall

in this region.  For more information about this potential hazard,

see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS

forecast office.



The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/5 kt.

Sergio should begin accelerating in the aforementioned direction

this morning, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in

about 3 days.  There is high confidence in the forecast track as the

available global and regional models are clustered tightly together

through day 5.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance

cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0900Z 16.3N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

120H  14/0600Z 36.3N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 090838 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  40

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS

COMPRISED OF A FRAGMENTED, LARGE OUTER RING, ABOUT 100 N MI IN

DIAMETER.  THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO JUST THE

SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE

INITIAL INTENSITY AT 75 KT.



SOME SLOW WEAKENING, OR POSSIBLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH, IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SERGIO TRAVERSES MARGINALLY

CONDUCIVE OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR

SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.  AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER A

REGION OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING

AND REDUCING SERGIO TO A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SERGIO

IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND

INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA EARLY SATURDAY.  AT

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER

DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE NOAA-HCCA AND THE

GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SERGIO MAKING LANDFALL AS A

TROPICAL STORM.



MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED

STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL

IN THIS REGION.  FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD,

SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS



2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 090836 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  40

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018



...SERGIO FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.3N 127.9W

ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

SERGIO.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES

(220 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE



2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 090836

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  40

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...SERGIO FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.3N 127.9W

ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of

Sergio.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located

near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 127.9 West. Sergio is moving

toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion

should continue during the next several days with an increase in

forward speed.



Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several

days.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 090836 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z

AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 128.2W



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 090836

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z

AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 128.2W



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N  97.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 127.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-09 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 090359



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N  28.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 09.10.2018    0  10.0N  28.9W     1011            21

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   12  10.3N  30.8W     1010            23

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   24  10.6N  31.9W     1008            26

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   36  11.7N  33.2W     1006            34

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   48  12.5N  34.2W     1004            39

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   60  13.3N  34.9W     1005            41

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   72  14.1N  35.6W     1007            35

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   84  14.7N  36.5W     1009            32

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   96  15.0N  38.2W     1010            28

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  108  15.4N  40.6W     1012            27

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  120              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N  45.0W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 09.10.2018    0  33.4N  45.0W      981            54

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   12  31.4N  43.6W      972            60

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   24  29.4N  43.3W      969            61

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   36  28.0N  43.5W      971            59

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   48  27.5N  43.1W      963            65

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   60  28.5N  41.4W      951            76

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   72  30.2N  38.0W      941            82

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   84  31.9N  33.1W      947            81

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   96  32.6N  26.6W      960            75

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  108  32.8N  21.1W      972            68

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  120  31.4N  18.1W      985            46

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  132  29.4N  17.8W      998            46

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  144  27.5N  18.3W     1005            31



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N  85.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 09.10.2018    0  22.8N  85.2W      972            67

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   12  24.5N  85.8W      973            61

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   24  26.4N  86.2W      969            62

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   36  28.6N  86.0W      963            66

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   48  31.0N  84.5W      961            53

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   60  33.3N  82.0W      974            47

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   72  35.6N  78.1W      979            51

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   84  38.4N  73.1W      973            61

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   96  41.5N  64.6W      964            67

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  108  45.3N  52.6W      964            62

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  120  48.4N  38.5W      973            51

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  132  48.7N  25.7W      980            51

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  144  48.3N  17.1W      992            40



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 128.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 09.10.2018    0  15.8N 128.5W      977            53

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   12  16.3N 127.8W      975            54

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   24  16.9N 126.4W      977            51

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   36  17.9N 124.3W      973            58

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   48  19.4N 121.6W      965            66

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   60  21.4N 118.8W      960            69

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   72  23.8N 115.6W      968            70

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   84  26.4N 112.7W      977            51

    0000UTC 13.10.2018   96  29.4N 107.8W     1000            27

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  108  32.3N 101.3W     1001            21

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  120  33.9N  96.6W     1001            24

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  132  34.8N  93.0W     1008            17

    0000UTC 15.10.2018  144              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 090359



2018-10-09 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 090359



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N  28.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 09.10.2018  10.0N  28.9W     WEAK

 12UTC 09.10.2018  10.3N  30.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  10.6N  31.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  11.7N  33.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  12.5N  34.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  13.3N  34.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.1N  35.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  14.7N  36.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  15.0N  38.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  15.4N  40.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N  45.0W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 09.10.2018  33.4N  45.0W   MODERATE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  31.4N  43.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  29.4N  43.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.0N  43.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.5N  43.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.5N  41.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  30.2N  38.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.9N  33.1W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  32.6N  26.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  32.8N  21.1W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  31.4N  18.1W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  29.4N  17.8W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  27.5N  18.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N  85.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 09.10.2018  22.8N  85.2W    STRONG

 12UTC 09.10.2018  24.5N  85.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  26.4N  86.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.6N  86.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  31.0N  84.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  33.3N  82.0W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  35.6N  78.1W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  38.4N  73.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  41.5N  64.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  45.3N  52.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  48.4N  38.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  48.7N  25.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018  48.3N  17.1W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 128.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 09.10.2018  15.8N 128.5W    STRONG

 12UTC 09.10.2018  16.3N 127.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  16.9N 126.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  17.9N 124.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  19.4N 121.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  21.4N 118.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  23.8N 115.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  26.4N 112.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  29.4N 107.8W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  32.3N 101.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  33.9N  96.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.10.2018  34.8N  93.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 090359



2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 090241 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  39

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED

IMAGERY REVEAL A RATHER LARGE, CURVED BAND FEATURE OUTLINING

ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WHAT ONCE WAS AN ENCLOSED RAGGED EYE.  THIS

PRIMARY BAND IS STILL PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, AND THE

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE, SO THE INITIAL

INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



SERGIO SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT

TRAVERSES MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE OCEANIC TEMPERATURES.  BEYOND THAT

PERIOD, SERGIO SHOULD ENTER A REGION OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE

FURTHER WEAKENING AND AT A FASTER RATE.  TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,

SERGIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHERNWESTERN MEXICO IN 4 DAYS.  AT WHICH TIME,

THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

REMNANTS OF SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND

PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD

POTENTIALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION.  FOR MORE

INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 360/3 KT.

SERGIO SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY, AND

APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS



2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 090241

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared

imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining

about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye.  This

primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the

satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial

intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.



Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it

traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures.  Beyond that

period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface

temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce

further weakening and at a faster rate.  Toward the end of the week,

Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California

peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days.  At which time,

the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low

over the southwestern United States.  Moisture associated with the

remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and

portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could

potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region.  For more

information about this potential hazard, see products from the

Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.



The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt.

Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and

approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.

The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is

close to the various multi-model consensus aids.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

120H  14/0000Z 35.4N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 090239 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  39

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 128.6W

ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD

CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED COMMENCING ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES

(220 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE



2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 090239

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  39

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 128.6W

ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located

near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving

toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the

northeast is expected tonight, and this general motion should

continue during the next several days with an increase in forward

speed commencing on Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several

days.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 090239 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.5W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 090239

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.5W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.4N  99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 082040 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



SERGIO STILL CONSISTS ALMOST ENTIRELY OF A SOLID RING OF DEEP

CONVECTION SURROUNDING A VERY LARGE EYE.  A PAIR OF TIMELY ASCAT

PASSES FROM AROUND 1800 UTC SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WIND FIELD

REMAINS VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A LARGE RMW.  ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN'T

EXPECT THAT INSTRUMENT TO CAPTURE THE TRUE MAGNITUDE OF THE

HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM WINDS, THE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE

DECREASED AT LEAST A LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING.  UW-CIMSS SATCON

VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED

SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT.



THE HURRICANE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD, AROUND 3 KT.  THERE

HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST AND

SERGIO SHOULD STILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO,

APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTH

BEYOND 24 H, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT

DIRECTION AS WELL, BUT NOW LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS.



IN THE SHORT-TERM, SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN

WHILE IT MOVES VERY LITTLE AND CONTINUES TO UPWELL COLD WATERS.

BEYOND 24 H, THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH ADDITIONAL COOLER WATERS TO

THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IN

GENERAL, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SERGIO TO MAINTAIN

ITS INTENSITY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48 H AND

72 H.  IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE HURRICANE WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN



2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 082040

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  38

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Sergio still consists almost entirely of a solid ring of deep

convection surrounding a very large eye.  A pair of timely ASCAT

passes from around 1800 UTC show that the hurricane wind field

remains very symmetric with a large RMW.  Although we wouldn't

expect that instrument to capture the true magnitude of the

hurricane's maximum winds, the data does suggest that the winds have

decreased at least a little since this morning.  UW-CIMSS SATCON

values have also decreased, so the initial intensity is lowered

slightly to 75 kt.



The hurricane is moving very slowly northward, around 3 kt.  There

has been no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast and

Sergio should still accelerate northeastward in a day or so,

approaching the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week.

Nearly all of the models have shifted a little toward the south

beyond 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that

direction as well, but now lies just north of the multi-model

consensus.



In the short-term, Sergio is still forecast to gradually weaken

while it moves very little and continues to upwell cold waters.

Beyond 24 h, the hurricane should reach additional cooler waters to

the north, which should cause additional gradual weakening.  In

general, the intensity guidance is forecasting Sergio to maintain

its intensity a little longer than previously forecast, so the NHC

intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher at 48 h and

72 h.  It's worth noting that the hurricane would likely maintain

its intensity longer if it moves a little farther south over warmer

waters, and any further adjustments southward to the track forecast

could have implications on the intensity forecast.  By Friday

afternoon, the cyclone should have reached the Baja California

peninsula and more rapid weakening should follow.  Although the

low-level center of Sergio will likely quickly dissipate after

reaching mainland Mexico, its mid-level remnants and moisture will

continue northeastward, potentially causing heavy rainfall across

parts of the southwestern United States.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/2100Z 15.7N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

120H  13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 082039

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



...SERGIO DRIFTING NORTHWARD...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 128.5W

ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST. SERGIO IS

TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD

THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES

(220 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE

CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 082038 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

EYE DIAMETER  70 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z

AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 128.5W



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 082038

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

EYE DIAMETER  70 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z

AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 128.5W



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 128.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-08 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 081559



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION :  9.1N  27.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 08.10.2018    0   9.1N  27.5W     1012            19

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   12              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N  47.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 08.10.2018    0  34.9N  47.5W      990            44

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   12  33.3N  45.3W      986            47

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   24  31.4N  44.0W      977            61

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   36  29.3N  43.9W      970            58

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   48  27.8N  44.1W      966            62

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   60  27.5N  43.6W      962            65

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   72  28.3N  41.9W      957            70

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   84  29.8N  38.7W      947            79

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   96  31.6N  33.9W      949            79

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  108  32.5N  27.6W      963            73

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  120  32.8N  22.2W      980            58

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  132  31.8N  19.7W      992            46

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  144  30.1N  20.1W     1002            35



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N  85.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 08.10.2018    0  20.9N  85.1W      982            55

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   12  22.9N  85.1W      974            61

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   24  24.9N  86.0W      973            58

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   36  27.0N  86.3W      967            67

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   48  29.7N  85.8W      955            75

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   60  32.5N  83.9W      973            39

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   72  35.3N  80.3W      982            39

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   84  38.0N  75.2W      980            48

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   96  40.2N  68.4W      973            57

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  108  43.4N  58.8W      966            62

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  120  46.5N  46.8W      968            57

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  132  47.4N  34.2W      983            49

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  144  47.3N  24.6W      997            38



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 128.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 08.10.2018    0  15.0N 128.5W      973            57

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   12  15.6N 128.4W      972            57

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   24  16.2N 127.7W      970            58

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   36  16.9N 126.2W      970            57

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   48  17.9N 124.2W      965            62

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   60  19.4N 121.6W      960            66

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   72  21.7N 118.6W      956            73

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   84  24.2N 115.8W      967            66

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   96  26.9N 112.5W      983            52

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  108  30.5N 107.0W     1000            28

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  120  33.9N 100.6W      998            23

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  132  35.2N  95.4W     1000            16

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  144  35.9N  90.5W     1008            17



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N  33.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   48  12.3N  33.8W     1007            28

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   60  13.0N  35.3W     1007            34

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   72  13.9N  36.1W     1006            36

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   84  14.8N  36.4W     1007            32

    1200UTC 12.10.2018   96  15.5N  37.2W     1010            28

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  108  15.9N  38.5W     1011            26

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  120  16.2N  40.7W     1013            26

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  132              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.1N 114.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 14.10.2018  144  31.1N 114.5W     1006            24





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 081559



2018-10-08 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 081559



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION :  9.1N  27.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 08.10.2018   9.1N  27.5W     WEAK

 00UTC 09.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N  47.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 08.10.2018  34.9N  47.5W   MODERATE

 00UTC 09.10.2018  33.3N  45.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  31.4N  44.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  29.3N  43.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2018  27.8N  44.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.5N  43.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.3N  41.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  29.8N  38.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.6N  33.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  32.5N  27.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  32.8N  22.2W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  31.8N  19.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  30.1N  20.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



             HURRICANE MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N  85.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 08.10.2018  20.9N  85.1W   MODERATE

 00UTC 09.10.2018  22.9N  85.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 09.10.2018  24.9N  86.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  27.0N  86.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2018  29.7N  85.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  32.5N  83.9W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  35.3N  80.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  38.0N  75.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  40.2N  68.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  43.4N  58.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  46.5N  46.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  47.4N  34.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 14.10.2018  47.3N  24.6W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 128.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 08.10.2018  15.0N 128.5W    STRONG

 00UTC 09.10.2018  15.6N 128.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  16.2N 127.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  16.9N 126.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  17.9N 124.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  19.4N 121.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  21.7N 118.6W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  24.2N 115.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  26.9N 112.5W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  30.5N 107.0W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  33.9N 100.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  35.2N  95.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.10.2018  35.9N  90.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N  33.8W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 10.10.2018  12.3N  33.8W     WEAK

 00UTC 11.10.2018  13.0N  35.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  13.9N  36.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.8N  36.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.5N  37.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  15.9N  38.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  16.2N  40.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.1N 114.5W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 14.10.2018  31.1N 114.5W     WEAK





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 081559



2018-10-08 15:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 081448 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



SERGIO'S STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY-STATE FOR THE PAST 24

HOURS.  A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDS SERGIO'S GIANT

EYE, AND THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE BANDS.  DESPITE

UPWELLING THAT IS PRESUMABLY OCCURING BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING

HURRICANE, CLOUD TOPS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,

AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT

CHANGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN HELD AT 80 KT,

WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH A 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE.



AS LONG AS SERGIO CAN MAINTAIN ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE IN AN

ENVIRONMENT OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR, ONLY VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED, DESPITE PRESUMABLY COOLING WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE

ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW MOVEMENT.  THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST THAT

THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THE

CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS SHORTLY AFTER THAT

TIME.  A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED BEYOND

48 H, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AND SERGIO IS

FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN

MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER

LANDFALL, AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF

MAINLAND MEXICO, THOUGH A 5 DAY REMNANT LOW POINT IS STILL SHOWN

FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.



SERGIO IS MOVING VERY LITTLE RIGHT NOW, AND THE SLOW MOTION WILL

LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY.  BY TONIGHT, A LARGE TROUGH

CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE



2018-10-08 15:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 081448

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  37

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Sergio's structure has remained nearly steady-state for the past 24

hours.  A solid ring of deep convection surrounds Sergio's giant

eye, and there is little evidence of any convective bands.  Despite

upwelling that is presumably occuring beneath the slow moving

hurricane, cloud tops have actually cooled over the past few hours,

and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have not

changed. The initial intensity has therefore been held at 80 kt,

which also agrees with a 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.



As long as Sergio can maintain its annular structure in an

environment of negligible shear, only very gradual weakening is

expected, despite presumably cooling waters beneath the cyclone

associated with its slow movement.  The ECMWF and GFS forecast that

the shear will begin to increase in about 24 to 36 hours, and the

cyclone will also be reaching much cooler waters shortly after that

time.  A faster rate of weakening is therefore anticipated beyond

48 h, in line with the latest intensity consensus, and Sergio is

forecast to be a tropical storm when it approaches northwestern

Mexico in a few days.  The cyclone should weaken quickly after

landfall, and will likely dissipate over the high terrain of

mainland Mexico, though a 5 day remnant low point is still shown

for continuity purposes.



Sergio is moving very little right now, and the slow motion will

likely continue during the day today.  By tonight, a large trough

centered over the southwestern United States will cause the

hurricane to accelerate northeastward.  The track guidance is in

good agreement on the track of Sergio, although there is still some

uncertainty associated with the timing for when Sergio will reach

the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Only minor changes

were made to the official track forecast, which lies near the middle

of the guidance envelope and very close to TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/1500Z 15.3N 128.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

120H  13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 081447 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  37

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.3N 128.6W

ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SLOW

NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT,

FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING

TOMORROW.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS, AND SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY

THURSDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM

THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150

MILES (240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE



2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 081447

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  37

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.3N 128.6W

ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located

near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving

toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow

northward or northeastward drift is expected today and tonight,

followed by an acceleration toward the northeast beginning

tomorrow.



Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher

gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several

days, and Sergio is forecast to become a tropical storm by

Thursday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150

miles (240 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 081447 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   2 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB

EYE DIAMETER  90 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 390NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z

AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.5W



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.



2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 081447

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   2 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB

EYE DIAMETER  90 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 390NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z

AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.5W



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 128.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-08 10:32

WTPN32 PHNC 081000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 036

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 128.1W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 128.1W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 15.7N 128.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 16.4N 127.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 17.2N 126.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 18.2N 124.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 21.4N 120.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 26.5N 114.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 33.0N 106.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

081000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 128.2W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z

IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080850 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



SERGIO CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE 60 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH SEVERAL

MESOVORTICIES WITHIN IT.  ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE

SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE, THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD, LIKELY

DUE TO SOME OCEAN UPWELLING BENEATH THE HURRICANE.  THE DVORAK

ESTIMATES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND STILL SUPPORT AN

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.



SERGIO IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SERGIO FROM THE NORTH, AND

THAT FEATURE, AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES

SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.  THIS MOTION WITH

AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF

THE WEEK.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, AND THE NHC

TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BASED ON THIS FORECAST, SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.



SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ITS STRENGTH OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE

ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED

AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR, DRIER AIR, AND

PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  BASED ON THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SERGIO IS EXPECTED

TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY ONCE IT MOVES INLAND.

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR



2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080850

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  36

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Sergio continues to have a large 60 nmi diameter eye with several

mesovorticies within it.  Although the cloud pattern is quite

symmetric around the eye, the cloud tops are not very cold, likely

due to some ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane.  The Dvorak

estimates are largely unchanged from earlier and still support an

initial intensity of 80 kt.



Sergio is now drifting northwestward in weak steering currents.  A

shortwave trough is expected to approach Sergio from the north, and

that feature, and a large trough over the southwestern United States

should cause Sergio to turn northeastward tonight.  This motion with

an increase in forward speed is expected through the remainder of

the week.  The models are in good agreement overall, and the NHC

track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Based on this forecast, Sergio is expected to be very near the Baja

California peninsula in about 4 days.



Sergio is expected to hold its strength or weaken only slightly

during the next day or so while it remains in a favorable

atmospheric environment.  However, steady weakening is expected

after that time due to increasing shear, drier air, and

progressively cooler waters along the forecast track.  Based on the

intensity guidance and environmental conditions, Sergio is expected

to be a tropical storm by the time it nears the Baja California

peninsula. The cyclone should weaken quickly once it moves inland.

The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near

the HCCA and IVCN guidance.



Recent ASCAT data was very helpful in analyzing the 34- and 50-kt

wind radii.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0900Z 15.2N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA

120H  13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 080849 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018



...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 128.1W

ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H).  A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST

IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THAT MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES

(260 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO

CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE

CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.



2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 080849

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  36

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.2N 128.1W

ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located

near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 128.1 West. Sergio is moving

toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A turn to the northeast

is expected tonight, and that motion with an increase in forward

speed is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

(260 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the

Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.  These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080850 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB

EYE DIAMETER  60 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 480SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.1W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.



2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080850

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   4 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB

EYE DIAMETER  60 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 480SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.1W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 128.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-08 04:32

WTPN32 PHNC 080400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 035

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 127.8W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 127.8W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 15.3N 128.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 16.0N 128.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 16.9N 127.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 17.7N 125.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 20.5N 121.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 25.5N 115.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 32.0N 109.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

080400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 128.0W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1222 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

080000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND

090400Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-08 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 080359



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.10.2018



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N  49.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 08.10.2018    0  35.8N  49.5W      988            47

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   12  35.0N  47.6W      988            44

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   24  33.4N  45.4W      984            47

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   36  31.4N  43.8W      978            58

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   48  29.2N  43.8W      969            60

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   60  27.6N  44.3W      965            62

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   72  27.3N  43.8W      959            71

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   84  28.5N  41.8W      951            78

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   96  30.2N  38.2W      943            80

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  108  31.9N  32.4W      943            87

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  120  34.0N  24.5W      957            79

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  132  39.3N  17.3W      973            67

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  144  45.6N  14.8W      964            68



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N  85.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 08.10.2018    0  19.6N  85.1W      998            38

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   12  20.8N  84.8W      989            50

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   24  22.5N  85.4W      973            61

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   36  24.1N  85.8W      969            63

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   48  25.8N  86.1W      966            65

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   60  27.8N  85.8W      952            74

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   72  30.1N  84.4W      941            71

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   84  32.5N  82.3W      969            50

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   96  34.7N  79.2W      976            52

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  108  37.2N  75.0W      977            58

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  120  40.5N  68.2W      972            61

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  132  44.4N  58.1W      971            59

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  144  47.1N  45.7W      986            46



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 127.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 08.10.2018    0  14.7N 127.7W      975            53

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   12  15.0N 128.3W      979            54

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   24  15.6N 128.3W      978            55

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   36  16.1N 127.5W      967            60

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   48  17.0N 125.9W      966            59

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   60  18.0N 124.0W      964            64

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   72  19.5N 121.4W      959            68

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   84  21.7N 118.8W      957            69

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   96  24.1N 115.8W      965            64

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  108  26.7N 112.7W      980            54

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  120  29.8N 107.6W      998            26

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  132  32.0N 103.1W     1000            25

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  144  33.7N  96.1W     1001            27



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.7N  33.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   60  12.7N  33.8W     1007            30

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   72  13.9N  34.9W     1006            35

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   84  15.2N  35.4W     1005            39

    0000UTC 12.10.2018   96  16.4N  35.4W     1005            39

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  108  17.5N  35.2W     1008            29

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  120  18.1N  35.4W     1010            24

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  132  18.3N  36.5W     1013            21

    0000UTC 14.10.2018  144              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 080359



2018-10-08 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 080359



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.10.2018



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N  49.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.10.2018  35.8N  49.5W   MODERATE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  35.0N  47.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.10.2018  33.4N  45.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  31.4N  43.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  29.2N  43.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2018  27.6N  44.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.3N  43.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.5N  41.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  30.2N  38.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.9N  32.4W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  34.0N  24.5W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  39.3N  17.3W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 14.10.2018  45.6N  14.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



        TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL    ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N  85.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.10.2018  19.6N  85.1W   MODERATE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  20.8N  84.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.10.2018  22.5N  85.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 09.10.2018  24.1N  85.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  25.8N  86.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  27.8N  85.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  30.1N  84.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  32.5N  82.3W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  34.7N  79.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  37.2N  75.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  40.5N  68.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  44.4N  58.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  47.1N  45.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 127.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.10.2018  14.7N 127.7W    STRONG

 12UTC 08.10.2018  15.0N 128.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.10.2018  15.6N 128.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  16.1N 127.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  17.0N 125.9W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  18.0N 124.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  19.5N 121.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  21.7N 118.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  24.1N 115.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  26.7N 112.7W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  29.8N 107.6W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  32.0N 103.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018  33.7N  96.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.7N  33.8W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 10.10.2018  12.7N  33.8W     WEAK

 00UTC 11.10.2018  13.9N  34.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  15.2N  35.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  16.4N  35.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  17.5N  35.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  18.1N  35.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  18.3N  36.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 080359



2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080236 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



SERGIO STILL HAS ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE, BUT THE SURROUNDING

CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER TODAY. DVORAK OBJECTIVE AND

SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ONLY SUPPORT 80 KT AT THIS TIME. LITTLE

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO

24 HOURS WHILE THE WATERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM. IN ABOUT 2

DAYS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, AND A WEAKENING

TREND AT A FASTER RATE IS ANTICIPATED. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BE A

TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT IS APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA.



SERGIO IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND

IS BARELY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT TIME, A BROAD

MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE

U.S., AND THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO TO RECURVE

NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, BASICALLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER FOR THE

NEXT 3 DAYS, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. BEYOND

3 DAYS, MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT, BUT STILL BRING THE CYCLONE

VERY NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 4

DAYS OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE

PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH



2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080236

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  35

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding

convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and

subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little

significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to

24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2

days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening

trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a

tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California

peninsula.



Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and

is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is

expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad

mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the

U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve

northeastward with increasing forward speed.  The track guidance is

in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the

next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond

3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone

very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4

days or so.  The NHC forecast is not very different from the

previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 080235

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



...SERGIO BARELY MOVING BUT FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD

MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 127.9W

ABOUT 1295 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS

ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM

THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES (295 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080234 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB

EYE DIAMETER  50 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 300SW 510NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z

AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.8W



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080234

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB

EYE DIAMETER  50 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 300SW 510NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z

AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.8W



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 127.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 072033 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



SERGIO HAS MAINTAINED ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO NEARLY 90 N MI ACROSS, AND

THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN MULTIPLE MICROWAVE

OVERPASSES SINCE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM

TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, HOWEVER THE

UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ARE A LITTLE HIGHER, SO THE INITIAL

INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.



VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK OR INTENSITY

FORECASTS. SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD

OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN FACT, THE 12 H FORECAST POINT IS

PRACTICALLY ALREADY INSIDE THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE.  BY TUESDAY,

ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN

SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY,

ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED WITH THIS

FORECAST CYCLE, THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, SO ONLY

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.



SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SERGIO

POSSIBLY MAINTAINS ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE. BY MID-WEEK, SERGIO WILL

BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, AND A FASTER RATE OF

WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS NEAR THE IVCN AND HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS

AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 072033

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  34

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Sergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past

several hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and

there is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave

overpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from

TAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the

UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial

intensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt.



Very little change has been made to the official track or intensity

forecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward

over the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is

practically already inside the eye of the hurricane.  By Tuesday,

one or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western

side of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S.

should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly,

although the various global models solutions have changed with this

forecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only

minor adjustments were required to the official track forecast.



Slow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio

possibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will

be moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of

weakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the

previous advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus

aids.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 072100 CCA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  34...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



CORRECTED TO CHANGE A WORD IN THE HEADLINE



...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 127.5W

ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD

ON MONDAY.  A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO

MID-WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM

THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES (295 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 072032

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWING MOVING WESTWARD...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 127.5W

ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD

ON MONDAY.  A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO

MID-WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM

THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES (295 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 072032 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB

EYE DIAMETER  85 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.3W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 072032

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB

EYE DIAMETER  85 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.3W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 127.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-07 21:32

WTPN32 PHNC 072200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 034

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   071800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.3W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.3W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 15.0N 128.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 15.6N 128.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 16.4N 127.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 17.3N 126.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 19.6N 122.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 23.5N 118.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 28.0N 112.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

072200Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 127.6W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-07 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 071559



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N  24.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 07.10.2018    0  31.1N  24.8W     1010            28

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   12  32.2N  24.1W     1010            26

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   24              CEASED TRACKING



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L        ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N  86.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 07.10.2018    0  18.7N  86.7W     1003            32

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   12  19.5N  85.6W     1000            34

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   24  20.5N  85.4W      996            44

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   36  22.2N  85.2W      979            59

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   48  23.8N  85.5W      974            59

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   60  25.5N  85.5W      971            59

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   72  27.5N  85.1W      963            69

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   84  29.5N  83.7W      945            79

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   96  31.5N  81.8W      968            62

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  108  33.4N  78.9W      960            66

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  120  35.5N  75.2W      953            75

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  132  38.5N  69.1W      945            77

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  144  43.3N  59.8W      947            76



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N  51.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 07.10.2018    0  36.4N  51.6W      988            43

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   12  36.0N  49.4W      989            43

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   24  35.3N  47.3W      988            50

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   36  33.8N  45.2W      985            47

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   48  31.7N  43.1W      978            57

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   60  29.5N  42.4W      968            61

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   72  27.8N  42.4W      962            70

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   84  27.4N  42.0W      959            68

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   96  28.0N  40.5W      950            79

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  108  29.5N  36.9W      944            86

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  120  31.3N  31.7W      949            79

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  132  32.6N  25.5W      956            79

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  144  33.0N  20.1W      971            65



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 07.10.2018    0  14.7N 126.6W      963            65

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   12  14.9N 127.7W      966            64

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   24  15.3N 128.2W      964            62

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   36  16.1N 128.3W      962            63

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   48  16.7N 127.5W      959            69

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   60  17.4N 126.0W      961            65

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   72  18.4N 124.1W      959            67

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   84  20.2N 121.5W      959            67

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   96  22.4N 118.8W      959            66

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  108  25.0N 115.5W      968            65

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  120  28.7N 112.0W      975            57

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  132  33.1N 108.9W     1000            31

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  144              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.1N  35.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   84  12.5N  35.6W     1008            33

    1200UTC 11.10.2018   96  13.7N  37.5W     1007            34

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  108  14.7N  37.7W     1005            38

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  120  15.5N  37.5W     1004            46

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  132  16.1N  38.4W     1006            38

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  144  16.4N  40.4W     1010            29



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.4N 113.9W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 13.10.2018  144  31.4N 113.9W     1005            31





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 071559



2018-10-07 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 071559



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N  24.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 07.10.2018  31.1N  24.8W     WEAK

 00UTC 08.10.2018  32.2N  24.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L        ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N  86.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 07.10.2018  18.7N  86.7W     WEAK

 00UTC 08.10.2018  19.5N  85.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  20.5N  85.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.10.2018  22.2N  85.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 09.10.2018  23.8N  85.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  25.5N  85.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  27.5N  85.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  29.5N  83.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  31.5N  81.8W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  33.4N  78.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  35.5N  75.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  38.5N  69.1W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  43.3N  59.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N  51.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 07.10.2018  36.4N  51.6W   MODERATE

 00UTC 08.10.2018  36.0N  49.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  35.3N  47.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.10.2018  33.8N  45.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  31.7N  43.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  29.5N  42.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2018  27.8N  42.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  27.4N  42.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  28.0N  40.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  29.5N  36.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  31.3N  31.7W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  32.6N  25.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018  33.0N  20.1W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 07.10.2018  14.7N 126.6W    STRONG

 00UTC 08.10.2018  14.9N 127.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  15.3N 128.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.10.2018  16.1N 128.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  16.7N 127.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.10.2018  17.4N 126.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  18.4N 124.1W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  20.2N 121.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  22.4N 118.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  25.0N 115.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  28.7N 112.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  33.1N 108.9W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 13.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.1N  35.6W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.10.2018  12.5N  35.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  13.7N  37.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.7N  37.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.5N  37.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  16.1N  38.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.10.2018  16.4N  40.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.4N 113.9W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 13.10.2018  31.4N 113.9W     WEAK





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 071559



2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 071437 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



SOMEWHAT QUICKLY AND UNEXPECTEDLY, SERGIO TOOK ON THE APPEARANCE OF

AN ANNULAR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE EXPANDED,

NEARLY DOUBLING IN SIZE (NOW 70 N MI ACROSS), AND MOST OF THE

BANDING FEATURES DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER, IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST

HOUR OR TWO INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE IS STILL SOMEWHAT

ASYMMETRICAL, SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT HAVE A CLASSICAL

ANNULAR STRUCTURE, AT LEAST NOT YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

LOWERED TO 90 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.



THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST WITH AN INITIAL FORWARD

SPEED OF 7 KT. SERGIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN FIRST

NORTHWARD, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY

MID-WEEK, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF COAST OF

CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY

GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF

NEXT WEEK, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK

FORECAST TO MOVE IT CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



AS LONG AS SERGIO CAN MAINTAIN ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE, ONLY SLOW

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO CONTINUED EFFECTS OF OCEAN UPWELLING

COMBINED WITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. BY THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SERGIO WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS

LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND A FASTER

WEAKENING RATE IS FORECAST. GIVEN THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF



2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 071437

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  33

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Somewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of

an annular hurricane overnight. The eye of the hurricane expanded,

nearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the

banding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past

hour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat

asymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical

annular structure, at least not yet. The initial intensity has been

lowered to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest current intensity

estimates from TAFB and SAB.



The hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward

speed of 7 kt. Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first

northward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By

mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of

California should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward

the Baja California peninsula. The global models remain in fairly

good agreement on the track of the cyclone through the middle of

next week, and only small changes were made to the NHC track

forecast to move it closer to the model consensus.



As long as Sergio can maintain its annular-like structure, only slow

weakening is anticipated due to continued effects of ocean upwelling

combined with the slow forward motion of the hurricane. By the end

of the forecast period, Sergio will be moving over much cooler SSTs

located west of the Baja California peninsula, and a faster

weakening rate is forecast. Given the lower initial intensity of

Sergio, the official intensity forecast is a little lower for the

first two days of the forecast, but is very similar beyond that

time.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/1500Z 14.5N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

 72H  10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 071436

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  33

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



...SERGIO A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR

SEVERAL DAYS...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 126.8W

ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).  SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD

ON MONDAY.  A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165

KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO

MID-WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM

THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES (295 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB (28.56 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 071436 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.6W



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 071436

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  33

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.6W



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

50 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 126.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-07 12:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 070851 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...

............................................................EXPECTED

    TO

    MAKE

    A

    SHARP

    NORTHEASTWARD

    TURN

    ON

    MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.6N 126.1W

ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A

SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE

CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195

MILES (315 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.



2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 070852 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



SERGIO APPEARS TO HAVE LOST SOME STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY, AND THE EYE

APPEARS LARGER AND MORE RAGGED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 100 KT, WHICH IS NEAR THE

UPPER END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THIS COULD BE A

LITTLE GENEROUS.



THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT, AND A SLOW

WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12

HOURS.  THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY,

AND SERGIO WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND

MONDAY.  AFTER THAT TIME, A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SERGIO TO MOVE TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE

TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS

NHC FORECAST.



THE PREDICTED SLOW MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY CAUSE OCEAN UPWELLING, WHICH COULD

RESULT IN CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN THE LONGER

RANGE, THE MODELS SHOW SERGIO MOVING INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT

OF DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SHEAR AND OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEG

C, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND OR EVEN ACCELERATE IT.

THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,

AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN AND HCCA MODELS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W  100 KT 115 MPH



2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 070852

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  32

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Sergio appears to have lost some strength during the past several

hours.  Deep convection has decreased in intensity, and the eye

appears larger and more ragged in recent satellite images.  The

initial intensity is lowered a little to 100 kt, which is near the

upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a

little generous.



The hurricane is still moving westward at about 7 kt, and a slow

westward or west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 12

hours.  The steering currents are expected to weaken later today,

and Sergio will likely drift northwestward and northward tonight and

Monday.  After that time, a large trough over the southwestern

United States is expected to cause Sergio to move toward the

northeast with increasing forward speed.  The track models are

tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous

NHC forecast.



The predicted slow motion of the tropical cyclone during the

next couple of days will likely cause ocean upwelling, which could

result in continued slow weakening in the short term.  In the longer

range, the models show Sergio moving into an atmospheric environment

of drier air and stronger shear and over waters cooler than 26 deg

C, which should continue the weakening trend or even accelerate it.

The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one,

and it is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA models.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

 96H  11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 070851

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018



...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...

.............EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.6N 126.1W

ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A

SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE

CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195

MILES (315 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.



............

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 070851 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z

AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.8W



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.



2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 070851

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z

AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.8W



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 126.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-07 05:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 070237 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



...SERGIO LUMBERING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...

............................................EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY

    NORTHEASTWARD

    ON

    MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 125.4W

ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND

MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES

(315 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------



2018-10-07 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 070359



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N  25.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.10.2018    0  31.7N  25.7W     1010            27

    1200UTC 07.10.2018   12  31.4N  24.7W     1010            26

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   24  31.7N  24.4W     1010            26

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   36              CEASED TRACKING



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L        ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N  86.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.10.2018    0  17.4N  86.9W     1005            28

    1200UTC 07.10.2018   12  18.2N  86.1W     1004            31

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   24  19.2N  85.8W     1001            34

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   36  20.1N  85.0W      997            43

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   48  22.5N  84.8W      983            55

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   60  24.2N  85.1W      976            56

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   72  26.2N  85.3W      972            60

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   84  28.2N  84.8W      966            65

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   96  30.3N  83.1W      961            50

    1200UTC 11.10.2018  108  32.4N  80.4W      971            60

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  120  34.5N  76.9W      962            67

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  132  36.9N  71.7W      942            76

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  144  40.0N  64.0W      934            83



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N  53.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.10.2018    0  37.5N  53.6W      986            48

    1200UTC 07.10.2018   12  36.3N  51.6W      987            44

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   24  35.9N  49.6W      989            45

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   36  35.3N  47.4W      989            46

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   48  33.7N  45.7W      986            55

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   60  31.4N  43.6W      980            52

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   72  28.8N  43.2W      970            62

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   84  26.9N  43.0W      963            71

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   96  26.4N  42.5W      962            73

    1200UTC 11.10.2018  108  27.1N  41.0W      957            76

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  120  28.7N  38.0W      955            81

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  132  30.4N  34.5W      960            67

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  144  30.9N  30.8W      970            64



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 125.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.10.2018    0  14.4N 125.1W      940            81

    1200UTC 07.10.2018   12  14.5N 126.5W      945            76

    0000UTC 08.10.2018   24  14.9N 127.4W      949            74

    1200UTC 08.10.2018   36  15.4N 128.0W      956            66

    0000UTC 09.10.2018   48  16.1N 127.9W      957            70

    1200UTC 09.10.2018   60  16.8N 127.0W      948            73

    0000UTC 10.10.2018   72  17.6N 125.4W      949            71

    1200UTC 10.10.2018   84  18.7N 123.3W      949            77

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   96  20.3N 120.7W      952            71

    1200UTC 11.10.2018  108  22.3N 118.4W      961            66

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  120  24.4N 115.5W      969            65

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  132  27.3N 111.8W      972            64

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  144  31.2N 108.0W      996            29



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.8N  35.2W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.10.2018   96  12.6N  35.6W     1008            33

    1200UTC 11.10.2018  108  13.5N  37.2W     1009            31

    0000UTC 12.10.2018  120  14.6N  37.7W     1010            29

    1200UTC 12.10.2018  132  15.2N  38.4W     1011            29

    0000UTC 13.10.2018  144  15.5N  39.4W     1012            25





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 070359



2018-10-07 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 070359



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.10.2018



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N  25.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2018  31.7N  25.7W     WEAK

 12UTC 07.10.2018  31.4N  24.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.10.2018  31.7N  24.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L        ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N  86.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2018  17.4N  86.9W     WEAK

 12UTC 07.10.2018  18.2N  86.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.10.2018  19.2N  85.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  20.1N  85.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.10.2018  22.5N  84.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 09.10.2018  24.2N  85.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  26.2N  85.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2018  28.2N  84.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  30.3N  83.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  32.4N  80.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  34.5N  76.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  36.9N  71.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  40.0N  64.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



        TROPICAL STORM LESLIE     ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N  53.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2018  37.5N  53.6W   MODERATE

 12UTC 07.10.2018  36.3N  51.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.10.2018  35.9N  49.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.10.2018  35.3N  47.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.10.2018  33.7N  45.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  31.4N  43.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  28.8N  43.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.10.2018  26.9N  43.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.10.2018  26.4N  42.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  27.1N  41.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  28.7N  38.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  30.4N  34.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.10.2018  30.9N  30.8W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



             HURRICANE SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 125.1W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.10.2018  14.4N 125.1W   INTENSE

 12UTC 07.10.2018  14.5N 126.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.10.2018  14.9N 127.4W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 08.10.2018  15.4N 128.0W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 09.10.2018  16.1N 127.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.10.2018  16.8N 127.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.10.2018  17.6N 125.4W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.10.2018  18.7N 123.3W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.10.2018  20.3N 120.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.10.2018  22.3N 118.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.10.2018  24.4N 115.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.10.2018  27.3N 111.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  31.2N 108.0W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.8N  35.2W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.10.2018  12.6N  35.6W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 11.10.2018  13.5N  37.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.10.2018  14.6N  37.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.10.2018  15.2N  38.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.10.2018  15.5N  39.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 070359



2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 070301 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED IN SERGIO'S SATELLITE

PRESENTATION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OTHER THAN CLOUD TOPS HAVE

WARMED SLIGHTLY. THE 30-NMI-WIDE EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT AND

OUTFLOW IS STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, HE

WARMING TOPS HAVE RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

LOWERED TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



SERGIO IS LUMBERING ALONG TOWARD THE WEST, OR 270/06 KT. THERE IS NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.

SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY

OR SO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG

SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHICH

WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND CAUSE SERGIO TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD

TURN AND ACCELERATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING STEERING

FLOW PATTERN, AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE

MODELS. THE SPEED DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAVE

DECREASED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE, SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAD TO BE

MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES

CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS

TRACK MODELS.



OCEAN TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE HURRICANE, SO



2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 070301

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  31

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018



Little overall change has been noted in Sergio's satellite

presentation the past several hours other than cloud tops have

warmed slightly. The 30-nmi-wide eye remains quite distinct and

outflow is still very impressive in all quadrants. However, he

warming tops have resulted in slightly lower satellite intensity

estimates from all agencies, so the initial intensity has been

lowered to 105 kt for this advisory.



Sergio is lumbering along toward the west, or 270/06 kt. There is no

significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.

Sergio should continue to move slowly westward around the

southwestern periphery of a weak deep-layer ridge for the next day

or so. By early next week, a strong trough is forecast to dig

southward off the coasts of California and Baja California, which

will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to make a sharp northeastward

turn and accelerate throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC

track guidance remains in good agreement on this developing steering

flow pattern, and there is very little cross-track spread in the

models. The speed differences noted in the previous discussion have

decreased on this forecast cycle, so only minor tweaks had to be

made to the previous advisory track. The new forecast track lies

close the previous one and near a blend of the various consensus

track models.



Ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone are forecast to decrease over

the next few days due to cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, so

gradual weakening is expected for the next 3 days. After that, more

rapid weakening is forecast due to increasing southwesterly

vertical wind shear ahead of a a deep-layer trough. The NHC

intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and the

IVCN consensus model.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0300Z 14.5N 125.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 12H  07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

 96H  11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 070237

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



...SERGIO LUMBERING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...

..............EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 125.4W

ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND

MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES

(315 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.



.............

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 070235 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z

AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.



2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 070235

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z

AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 125.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-06 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 062035 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SERGIO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION

TODAY.  THE LARGE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE

SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS SINCE THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER, THE LATEST

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT

AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 110 KT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS

DISCUSSION, THE PRIMARY FACTOR REGARDING SERGIO'S FUTURE INTENSITY

WILL BE OCEAN TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS, SINCE THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

REMAIN FAVORABLE. SERGIO SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT SOME UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER IS POSSIBLE AS

SERGIO SLOWS DOWN AND MAKES ITS PREDICTED SHARP TURN SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING

DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 72 HOURS, COOLER WATERS, INCREASING

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE

LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE

CONSENSUS AIDS, AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



SERGIO IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE HURRICANE

SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD

TURN AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO

AND ERODES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,

SERGIO SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.



2018-10-06 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 062035

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  30

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018



There has been little change in Sergio's satellite presentation

today.  The large eye remains well defined in visible and infrared

satellite imagery, but there has been a slight warming of the

surrounding cloud tops since this morning.  However, the latest

subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support

an initial wind speed of 110 kt.  As mentioned in the previous

discussion, the primary factor regarding Sergio's future intensity

will be ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone over the next few

days, since the other environmental conditions are expected to

remain favorable. Sergio should remain over warm waters during the

next day or so, but some upwelling of cooler water is possible as

Sergio slows down and makes its predicted sharp turn Sunday night

and Monday, and this is forecast to cause some gradual weakening

during that time.  After 72 hours, cooler waters, increasing

southwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are

likely to result in additional weakening.  The NHC intensity

forecast lies between the higher statistical guidance and the

consensus aids, and is very similar to the previous advisory.



Sergio is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt.  The hurricane

should turn westward tonight before making a sharp northeastward

turn as a mid-level trough drops southward to the north of Sergio

and erodes the western portion of the ridge.  By early next week,

Sergio should move northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough.

The track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but

there continues to be differences in the future forward speed of the

hurricane.  The guidance has once again trended a little slower this

cycle, and the new NHC track lies between the previous forecast and

the latest consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/2100Z 14.6N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  10/1800Z 20.0N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  11/1800Z 24.2N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-06 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 062033 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.7W AT 06/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.7W AT 06/2100Z

AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.4W



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.



2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 061444 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



SERGIO HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY-STATE SINCE LAST NIGHT AND THE

CLEAR EYE IS STILL SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND

OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE PRIMARY MODERATING FACTOR

FOR SERGIO'S INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES SINCE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST

THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE. SERGIO IS NOW

MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 6 KT, LIKELY JUST FAST ENOUGH TO

OUTRUN ITS OWN COLD WAKE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SERGIO'S INTENSITY IS

EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO

CONTINUE MOVING AT AROUND THIS SAME FORWARD SPEED. BY EARLY NEXT

WEEK, A SLOWER MOTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO OCCUR, AS

SERGIO BECOMES TRAPPED OVER COLDER UPWELLED WATERS, WITH FURTHER

WEAKENING LIKELY WHEN SERGIO REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS TO THE

NORTH. THE OCEAN-COUPLED REGIONAL MODELS SHOW MORE WEAKENING THAN

CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHILE DSHP AND LGEM

SHOW A STRONGER STORM, PROBABLY IN PART BECAUSE THOSE MODELS USE A

CONSTANT OCEAN FIELD.  CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT

VERY HIGH, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FASTER SERGIO MOVES, THE

STRONGER IT WILL BE.



THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK

OF SERGIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY DISAGREE ON HOW

QUICKLY SERGIO WILL MOVE ALONG THAT PATH. SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST

TO MAKE A SHARP U-TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND



2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 061444

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  29

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018



Sergio has remained nearly steady-state since last night and the

clear eye is still surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The initial

intensity remains 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective and

objective Dvorak intensity estimates. The primary moderating factor

for Sergio's intensity over the next few days will likely be sea

surface temperatures since GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggest

that the environment will be otherwise favorable. Sergio is now

moving west-southwestward at around 6 kt, likely just fast enough to

outrun its own cold wake. Little change in Sergio's intensity is

expected for the next day or so while the hurricane is forecast to

continue moving at around this same forward speed. By early next

week, a slower motion will likely cause some weakening to occur, as

Sergio becomes trapped over colder upwelled waters, with further

weakening likely when Sergio reaches much cooler waters to the

north. The ocean-coupled regional models show more weakening than

currently indicated by the official forecast, while DSHP and LGEM

show a stronger storm, probably in part because those models use a

constant ocean field.  Confidence in the intensity forecast is not

very high, and it is likely that the faster Sergio moves, the

stronger it will be.



The global models are in fairly good agreement on the general track

of Sergio through the middle of next week, but they disagree on how

quickly Sergio will move along that path. Sergio is still forecast

to make a sharp u-turn toward the northeast over the next 3 days and

then accelerate in that direction between 72 and 120 h. Most of the

models are showing a slightly slower forward speed than earlier

cycles. However there are still large differences in their

representation of a shortwave trough off the coast of California

that will cause Sergio's acceleration, and the model spread remains

high. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous

advisory but generally shows a slower speed, especially after 48 h,

in line with the latest track consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/1500Z 14.7N 124.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 061442

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



...SERGIO EXPECTED TO MAKE A U-TURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.7N 124.0W

ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS

FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BY EARLY

NEXT WEEK.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY,

AND SLOW WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER,

SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF

NEXT WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES

(295 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 061442 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z

AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.7W



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.



2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 061442

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z

AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.7W



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 124.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060845 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



SERGIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  IT

STILL HAS A 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS,

AND WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE ESTIMATED

MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 110 KT.  SERGIO'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY TO

CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT

WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE HURRICANE'S SPEED SLOWS DOWN AND IT

UPWELLS SOME COLDER WATER FROM BELOW, OR DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERNAL

STRUCTURAL CHANGES.  MORE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY

DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR AND THE HURRICANE REACHING COLDER WATERS.  THE NHC INTENSITY

FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ICON CONSENSUS AND THE HCCA

MODEL.  HOWEVER, THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN A BIT

HIGHER, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SERGIO WON'T LOSE QUITE AS MUCH

PUNCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST.



SERGIO CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF

235/7 KT.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA WILL BYPASS SERGIO DURING THE DAY, LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN

THE RIDGE THAT WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MAKING A SHARP

NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE

CALIFORNIA COAST WILL THEN CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD

ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  NOTABLE CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDE A

SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN FROM 24-72 HOURS, AND MORE SPREAD IN THE MODEL



2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060845

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  28

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018



Sergio has changed little in structure since the last advisory.  It

still has a 25-30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective tops,

and with not much change in intensity estimates, the estimated

maximum winds remain 110 kt.  Sergio's intensity is not likely to

change much during the next day or two, although some slight

weakening is possible as the hurricane's speed slows down and it

upwells some colder water from below, or due to possible internal

structural changes.  More definitive weakening is anticipated by

days 4 and 5 due to an increase in westerly and southwesterly

shear and the hurricane reaching colder waters.  The NHC intensity

forecast remains close to a blend of the ICON consensus and the HCCA

model.  However, the statistical-dynamical models remain a bit

higher, and it is possible that Sergio won't lose quite as much

punch during the next several days as is indicated by the official

forecast.



Sergio continues to dive southwestward with an initial motion of

235/7 kt.  A shortwave trough swinging across the Baja California

peninsula will bypass Sergio during the day, leaving a weakness in

the ridge that will allow the hurricane to begin making a sharp

northward and then northeastward turn during the next 24-72 hours.

Another shortwave trough forecast to dig southward off the

California coast will then cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward

on days 4 and 5.  Notable changes in this forecast update include a

slightly wider turn from 24-72 hours, and more spread in the model

speeds once Sergio accelerates toward the Baja California

peninsula.  As is usually the case in these scenarios, the ECMWF is

much slower than the other models, and because of that, the new NHC

forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, especially on day 5.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0900Z 14.9N 123.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 060845

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018



...SERGIO SIDEWINDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 123.5W

ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).  THE HURRICANE IS

FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN OVER THE

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH

THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE

CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185

MILES (295 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB (28.09 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060844 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z

AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.2W



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.



2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060844

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z

AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.2W



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 123.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



SERGIO HAS MAINTAINED A 25-30-NMI WIDE EYE THIS EVENING, AND A RING

OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB TO

T5.9/122 KT FROM ADT AND A T6.0/115 KT NHC OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER, SO

THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAVE BOTH

IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHILE SERGIO HAS LOST LATITUDE

AND MOVED OVER WARMER WATERS.



THE MOTION IS NOW SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 235/06 KT. SERGIO'S RECENT

SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED, WITH A RETURN TO

A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12

HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO IS FORECAST TO

BECOME MORE NARROW DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT IT IS

BASICALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT. THIS FEATURE WILL STEER THE

HURRICANE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, HOWEVER, A

STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD

OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA, CAUSING A

SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE

RIDGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SERGIO TURNING SLOWLY

NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY, AND ACCELERATE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW NHC

FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES

CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND NOAA-HCCA.



OTHER THAN VERY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND POSSIBLE

UPWELLING BENEATH THE HURRICANE DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED, THERE



2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060232

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018



Sergio has maintained a 25-30-nmi wide eye this evening, and a ring

of cold cloud tops has cooled around the well-defined eye. Satellite

intensity estimates range from T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB to

T5.9/122 kt from ADT and a T6.0/115 kt NHC objective T-number, so

the intensity has been bumped up to 110 kt for this advisory.

Upper-level outflow and the overall convective pattern have both

improved since the previous advisory while Sergio has lost latitude

and moved over warmer waters.



The motion is now southwestward, or 235/06 kt. Sergio's recent

southwestward motion is forecast to be short lived, with a return to

a west-southwestward to westward motion expected within the next 12

hours. The deep-layer ridge to the north of Sergio is forecast to

become more narrow due to a passing shortwave trough, but it is

basically expected to remain intact. This feature will steer the

hurricane slowly westward through Sunday. By Monday, however, a

stronger trough is forecast by the global models to drop southward

off the coasts of California and Baja California, causing a

significant weakening and erosion of the western portion of the

ridge. This is expected to result in Sergio turning slowly

northeastward on Monday, and accelerate on days 4 and 5. The new NHC

forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies

close to consensus models TVCE and NOAA-HCCA.



Other than very brief intrusions of dry mid-level air and possible

upwelling beneath the hurricane due to its slow forward speed, there

do not appear to be any other negative factors that would

significantly disrupt Sergio's intensity for the next 36-48 hours.

By 72 hours and beyond, however, increasing southwesterly vertical

wind shear is expected to induce a steady weakening trend after the

cyclone begins accelerating toward the northeast, and on days 4 and

5 passing over the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Rosa.

The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,

and is near an average of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0300Z 15.3N 122.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 060231 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



...SERGIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD

OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.3N 122.7W

ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE

SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.  A MOTION TOWARD THE

WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND

CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS

EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST

ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS

EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND ON

SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175



2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 060231

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  27

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018



...SERGIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD

OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.3N 122.7W

ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane

Sergio was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.7 West.

Sergio is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this

motion is expected to continue tonight.  A motion toward the

west-southwest and west is forecast to begin Saturday morning and

continue through Saturday night.  A motion toward the north is

expected on Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast

on Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is

expected through Saturday, followed by a slow weakening trend on

Sunday and Monday. However, Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane

during the next few days.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060231 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 450NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.5W



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.



2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060231

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 450NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.5W



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.7W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 052038 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THAT SERGIO HAS BECOME

A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  EYEWALL CLOUD TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE

AGAIN COOLED, AND THE RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS WARMED DURING THE

PAST 6 HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY, THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS

SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



AS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION, UNFORESEEN SHORT TERM

INNER-CORE STRUCTURE CHANGES COULD CAUSE SOME INTENSITY

FLUCTUATIONS.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS

FORECAST, AND AGAIN, THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN

REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  BEYOND THIS PERIOD, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5 AS SERGIO MOVES TOWARD DECREASING SEA-SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.  THE

DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE

MODELS, SHOW INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING SERGIO'S

OUTFLOW PATTERN AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR

TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, AND IS JUST ABOVE THE NOAA-HCCA AND IVCN

CONSENSUS MODELS AND BELOW THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY AIDS.



SERGIO'S MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 250/6 KT

WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A BUILDING HIGH

PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY

EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED



2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 052038

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018



This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Sergio has become

a little better organized.  Eyewall cloud temperatures have once

again cooled, and the ragged, cloud-filled eye has warmed during the

past 6 hours.  Accordingly, the subjective and objective T-numbers

support increasing the initial intensity to 105 kt for this

advisory.



As mentioned in this morning's discussion, unforeseen short term

inner-core structure changes could cause some intensity

fluctuations.  Since the environment is forecast to remain favorable

during the next 24 hours or so, little change in strength is

forecast, and again, the cyclone could become a little stronger than

reflected in the forecast.  Beyond this period, gradual weakening is

expected through day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing sea-surface

temperatures and into a more stable surrounding environment.  The

Decay-SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale

models, show increasing southwesterly shear disrupting Sergio's

outflow pattern after 72 hours.  The intensity forecast is similar

to the previous package, and is just above the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN

consensus models and below the statistical intensity aids.



Sergio's motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt

within the mid-level steering flow produced by a building high

pressure system located north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. By

early next week, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the

northwest to north-northwest is forecast as the aforementioned

mid-level high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over

the southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond

day 3, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow should induce

a northeastward accelerated motion through day 5.  The NHC forecast

is again adjusted south of the last advisory through 48 hours, and

is close to the various multi-model consensus guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/2100Z 15.7N 122.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 052037 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



...LARGE RAGGED EYE OF SERGIO WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 122.3W

ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. SERGIO

IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY

EARLY NEXT WEEK, SERGIO IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN SERGIO'S

INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTERWARD,

SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SERGIO IS STILL

EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES



2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 052037

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number  26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018



...LARGE RAGGED EYE OF SERGIO WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.7N 122.3W

ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sergio

was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 122.3 West. Sergio

is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this

general motion is expected to continue through Saturday night.  By

early next week, Sergio is forecast to turn toward the

west-northwest to north-northwest.  A gradual turn toward the

northeast is expected on Tuesday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in Sergio's

intensity is expected during the next 24 hours or so.  Afterward,

slow weakening is forecast into early next week, but Sergio is still

expected to remain a hurricane through the middle of next week.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

None.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 052034 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 420NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z

AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 052034

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 420NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z

AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 122.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 051500 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



GOES-16 IMAGES AND A 1054 UTC ATMS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE

THAT SERGIO'S 25 N MI EYE HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED THIS MORNING, AND

HAS CONTINUED TO COOL.  DESPITE THE EYE'S IRREGULARITY, THE INNER

CORE CONVECTION IS STILL INTACT AND IS PRODUCING VERY COLD (-76C)

CLOUD TOPS.  PRIMARILY DUE TO THE EYE ADJUSTMENT TEMPERATURE,

HOWEVER, THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES,

AS WELL AS A RECENT SATCON ANALYSIS, HAVE AGAIN DECREASED TO 95-100

KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERED TO 100 KT.



ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UNPREDICTED INNER CORE STRUCTURE

CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH COULD CAUSE SERGIO TO STRENGTHEN

AGAIN, THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

DAY 5 AS SERGIO MOVES TOWARD DECREASING OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND

INTO A STABILIZING SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERE.  THE STATISTICAL

INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW INCREASING

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENTERING THE PICTURE AFTER 72 HOURS.  THIS

SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE

NOAA-HCCA CONSENSUS AND IS JUST ABOVE THE FLORIDA STATE

SUPERENSEMBLE.



SERGIO IS MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS 6-HR MOTION...NOW

WESTWARD, OR 280/7 KT.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED

NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF

SERGIO.  OVER THE WEEKEND, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN



2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 051500

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  25

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018



GOES-16 images and a 1054 UTC ATMS microwave overpass indicate

that Sergio's 25 n mi eye has become a bit ragged this morning, and

has continued to cool.  Despite the eye's irregularity, the inner

core convection is still intact and is producing very cold (-76C)

cloud tops.  Primarily due to the eye adjustment temperature,

however, the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates,

as well as a recent SATCON analysis, have again decreased to 95-100

kt, and the initial intensity is subsequently lowered to 100 kt.



Although due to the possibility of unpredicted inner core structure

changes in the short term which could cause Sergio to strengthen

again, the current weakening trend is expected to continue through

day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing oceanic temperatures and

into a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere.  The statistical

intensity guidance as well as the large-scale models show increasing

southwesterly shear entering the picture after 72 hours.  This

should also aid in the forecast weakening trend.  The official

forecast is just an update of the previous one and follows the

NOAA-HCCA consensus and is just above the Florida State

Superensemble.



Sergio is moving a little left of the previous 6-hr motion...now

westward, or 280/7 kt.  A gradual turn toward the west-southwest

during the next 36 hours is expected as high pressure located

north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands builds to the north of

Sergio.  Over the weekend, a decrease in forward speed and a turn

toward the northwest is forecast as the aforementioned mid-level

high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over the

southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond the

72 hour period, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow

should induce a northeastward accelerated motion through the

remaining portion of the forecast.  The NHC forecast is adjusted a

little toward the south of the last advisory through 72 hours to

agree more with the various consensus models, but is quite similar

in motion and forward speed beyond that period.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/1500Z 15.9N 121.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

Forecaster Roberts



2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 051448

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.9N 121.8W

ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE

WEST ON SUNDAY.  AFTERWARD, SERGIO IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES

(280 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 051446 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z

AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.5W



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 051446

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z

AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.5W



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 121.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS



2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 050854 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



SERGIO'S EYE HAS COOLED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT

THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SURROUNDING DEEP

CONVECTION.  DESPITE THAT OBSERVATION, ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 100-105 KT, AND THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 105 KT.  THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND

SERGIO HAS BEEN ON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER

WATERS AND INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AN INCREASE IN

SHEAR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALSO HELP THE WEAKENING PROCESS ALONG.

THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE

PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, HCCA, AND

FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.



SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/7 KT.  NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID-LEVEL

TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL

LIKELY PUSH SERGIO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 24 HOURS, AND THE NHC

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.  AFTER 48 HOURS, A

BREAK IN THE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SERGIO

TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAYS 3-4.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS

THEN EXPECTED TO CAUSE A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY THE END OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ECMWF, ALONG WITH THE OTHER

MAJOR TRACK MODELS, HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS

ACCELERATION BY DAY 5, AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE A

LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT THAT TIME.



2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 050854

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  24

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018



Sergio's eye has cooled somewhat during the past few hours, but

there have been no significant changes to the surrounding deep

convection.  Despite that observation, all available intensity

estimates have fallen to between 100-105 kt, and the advisory

intensity is therefore set at 105 kt.  The gradual weakening trend

Sergio has been on is expected to continue for the duration of the

forecast period as the hurricane moves toward slightly cooler

waters and into a drier, more stable environment.  An increase in

shear by days 4 and 5 should also help the weakening process along.

The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the

previous one and is close to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and

Florida State Superensemble.



Sergio has continued to turn to the left and is now moving

west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  Northerly flow behind a mid-level

trough that will swing across the Baja California peninsula will

likely push Sergio west-southwestward by 24 hours, and the NHC

forecast continues to reflect that scenario.  After 48 hours, a

break in the ridge left behind by the trough should allow Sergio

to turn toward the north by days 3-4.  Another shortwave trough is

then expected to cause a northeastward acceleration by the end of

the forecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF, along with the other

major track models, have come into better agreement on this

acceleration by day 5, and the new official forecast is therefore a

little faster than the previous one at that time.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/0900Z 16.0N 121.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 12H  05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 050853

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018



...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 121.2W

ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SIMILAR SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.  SERGIO SHOULD THEN TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND

NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

MILES (280 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 050853 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

EYE DIAMETER  35 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z

AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.8W



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.



2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 050853

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

EYE DIAMETER  35 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z

AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.8W



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 121.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 050232 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE EYE BECOMING MORE RAGGED

AND LESS DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT BASED

ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE

MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY THEN, MOST OF

THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE FROM 48-72 HOURS BEFORE THE

SHEAR INCREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND SSTS COOL TO BETWEEN

26C AND 27C, WHICH SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST

48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED WEAKENING AND THE TREND IN THE

GUIDANCE, BUT IS SIMILAR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS PREDICTION IS CLOSE

TO OR A BIT ABOVE THE LATEST HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.



SERGIO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH AN

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 305/07. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO

THE NORTHWEST OF SERGIO WILL STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST AND

EVEN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER

THAT TIME, AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA

WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND CAUSE SERGIO TO RECURVE, WITH A FASTER

NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY DAY 5. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS

BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS,

FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS, WHICH ARE SHOWING

A MORE EQUATORWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, THE



2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 050232

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018



Sergio's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat since the previous

advisory, with cloud tops warming and the eye becoming more ragged

and less distinct. The initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt based

on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates.

Sergio is expected to steadily weaken for the next 48 hours while

moving into a drier and more stable environment. By then, most of

the guidance suggests little change from 48-72 hours before the

shear increases by the end of the period and SSTs cool to between

26C and 27C, which should again result in weakening. The new NHC

intensity forecast is lower than the previous one during the first

48 hours to account for the observed weakening and the trend in the

guidance, but is similar after that time. This prediction is close

to or a bit above the latest HCCA intensity consensus aid.



Sergio has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an

initial motion estimate now 305/07. A mid-level ridge building to

the northwest of Sergio will steer the hurricane toward the west and

even toward the west-southwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. After

that time, an amplifying longwave trough over western North America

will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to recurve, with a faster

northeastward motion shown by day 5. The new NHC track forecast has

been adjusted to the south of the previous one from 24 to 48 hours,

following the trend of the latest consensus aids, which are showing

a more equatorward motion during this time. At days 3 through 5, the

NHC track is largely an update of the previous one, and lies between

the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/0300Z 15.9N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brennan



2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 050231

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



...SERGIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.9N 120.5W

ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-

NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO WEST-

SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH SUNDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB (28.09 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER BRENNAN



2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 050231 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB

EYE DIAMETER  35 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 330NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z

AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.2W



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 65NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.



2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 050231

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB

EYE DIAMETER  35 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 330NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z

AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.2W



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 65NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 120.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN



2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 042033 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



SERGIO REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN

IS STILL SYMMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED, THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND

CLOUD FILLED AT TIMES. THE CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGE FROM 102 TO 127 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 115 KT

BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG

SERGIO'S FUTURE PATH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE

DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES,

COOLER SSTS, AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR. IN RESPONSE, ALL

OF THE MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND

THE NHC FORECAST DOES AS WELL. THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.



THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. A GRADUAL

TURN TO THE LEFT, OR WEST, IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SERGIO.

LATE THIS WEEKEND, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE

RIDGE RETREATS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

UNITED STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE

CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A SHARPER NORTHWARD AND

NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT DAYS 4 AND 5, TO COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH

THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W  110 KT 125 MPH



2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 042033

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  22

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018



Sergio remains an impressive hurricane. Although the cloud pattern

is still symmetric and well organized, the eye has become ragged and

cloud filled at times. The current satellite intensity estimates

range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 115 kt

based on a blend of these data. The environmental conditions along

Sergio's future path are expected to gradually become less favorable

during the next several days, with decreasing mid-level humidities,

cooler SSTs, and a slight increase in wind shear. In response, all

of the models show a gradual weakening trend through the period, and

the NHC forecast does as well. This forecast lies near the intensity

consensus aids and is largely an update of the previous one.



The hurricane is still moving to the northwest at 8 kt. A gradual

turn to the left, or west, is expected during the next couple of

days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north-northwest of Sergio.

Late this weekend, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the

ridge retreats in response to a large trough over the southwestern

United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause the

cyclone to turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The

only notable change in the track forecast is a sharper northward and

northeastward turn at days 4 and 5, to come in better agreement with

the latest consensus aids.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 96H  08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W   60 KT  70 MPH



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 042032

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  22

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



...SERGIO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.5N 119.9W

ABOUT 830 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY

AND OVER THE WEEKEND.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT

FEW DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE

WEEKEND.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB (27.97 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 042032 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB

EYE DIAMETER  25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 330SW 330NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z

AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.6W



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.



2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 042032

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB

EYE DIAMETER  25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 330SW 330NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z

AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.6W



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 119.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 041444 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



SERGIO REMAINS A STRONG HURRICANE THIS MORNING, WITH SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.5 (102 KT) TO 6.5 (127 KT).  WHILE

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS BEEN INGESTED INTO THE EYEWALL, CLOUD

TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RECENTLY AND SERGIO APPEARS POISED TO

ONCE AGAIN CLOSE OFF THIS DRY AIR CHANNEL.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS

MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT IS SLIGHTLY

LOWER AFTER 24 HOURS TO REFLECT A BLEND OF HCCA AND OTHER CONSENSUS

AIDS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM GFS/SHIPS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR

BELOW APPROXIMATELY 10 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO

ABOVE 15 KT BY SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY LIMITER ON SERGIO'S INTENSITY

APPEARS TO BE SSTS WHICH WILL DROP OFF GRADUALLY, ESPECIALLY BY THE

END OF THE FORECAST.



SERGIO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE MID-LEVEL

RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC OFF OF MEXICO.  THE INITIAL

MOTION IS 320/8 KT.  OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD

AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN

RESPONSE TO A SECOND RIDGE WHICH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  GUIDANCE

REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SERGIO THEN TURNING BACK

NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS RIDGE LIFTS

NORTHWARD AND A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN

NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH DAY 4 WITH A SMALL SHIFT EASTWARD

THEREAFTER TO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER NORTHEAST TURN IN THE



2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 041444

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018



Sergio remains a strong hurricane this morning, with subjective

Dvorak estimates range from 5.5 (102 kt) to 6.5 (127 kt).  While

some slightly drier air has been ingested into the eyewall, cloud

top temperatures have cooled recently and Sergio appears poised to

once again close off this dry air channel.  Based on these data, the

initial intensity is held at 120 kt.  The intensity forecast is

mostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but is slightly

lower after 24 hours to reflect a blend of HCCA and other consensus

aids. Vertical wind shear from GFS/SHIPS is forecast to remain at or

below approximately 10 kt through 48 hours before increasing to

above 15 kt by Saturday. The primary limiter on Sergio's intensity

appears to be SSTs which will drop off gradually, especially by the

end of the forecast.



Sergio is continuing to move northwestward around the mid-level

ridge which extends into the Pacific off of Mexico.  The initial

motion is 320/8 kt.  Objective track guidance is in fairly good

agreement on a gradual turn toward the west tonight and Friday in

response to a second ridge which builds in from the west.  Guidance

remains in decent agreement on Sergio then turning back

northeastward by the end of the forecast period as this ridge lifts

northward and a highly-amplified mid-level trough digs into western

North America.  The official track forecast is very similar to the

previous advisory through day 4 with a small shift eastward

thereafter to reflect a slightly earlier northeast turn in the

guidance.  This track philosophy is supported by essentially all of

the ECMWF/GFS ensemble members as well.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/1500Z 15.0N 119.3W  120 KT 140 MPH

 12H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 48H  06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

120H  09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH



$$

Forecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi



2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 041441

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



...STEADY-STATE SERGIO SWIRLING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE

EASTERN PACIFIC...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.0N 119.3W

ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND

WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON

FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER ONDERLINDE/CANGIALOSI



2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 041440 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z

AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 119.0W



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.



2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 041440

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB

EYE DIAMETER  30 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z

AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 119.0W



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER ONDERLINDE/CANGIALOSI



2018-10-04 15:32

WTPN32 PHNC 041600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   041200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 119.0W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 119.0W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 15.6N 120.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 16.0N 121.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 16.0N 122.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 15.7N 124.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 15.6N 126.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 16.3N 128.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 17.9N 127.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

041600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 119.4W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1085 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 28 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-04 12:33

WTPN32 PHNC 041000 COR

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   040600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 118.5W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 118.5W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 15.1N 119.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 15.8N 121.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   051800Z --- 16.0N 122.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 15.8N 123.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 15.5N 126.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 16.0N 128.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 17.5N 128.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

041000Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 118.9W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 28 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.

JUSTIFICATION FOR CORECTION: UPDATED WARNING.//

NNNN



2018-10-04 12:33

WTPN32 PHNC 041000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   040600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 118.5W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 118.5W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 15.1N 119.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 15.8N 121.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   051800Z --- 16.0N 122.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 15.8N 123.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 15.5N 126.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 16.0N 128.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 17.5N 128.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

041000Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 118.9W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 28 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.

JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING.//

NNNN



2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040851 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



SERGIO'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE INCREASED JUST A LITTLE

MORE THIS MORNING, AND IT REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T6.5/127 KT FROM TAFB AND T6.0/115

KT FROM SAB, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 120 KT, WHICH

IS A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE

ADT ESTIMATE.  SERGIO'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE

OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AND THE HURRICANE'S INTENSITY COULD VERY

WELL BE MODULATED BY DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST INTERNAL PROCESSES SUCH

AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  AFTER 48 HOURS, AN INCREASE IN

SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT

IN SOME WEAKENING, ESPECIALLY WHEN SERGIO MOVES MORE SLOWLY AT THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY UPWELLS SOME COOLER WATER

FROM BELOW.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD

DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS, BUT

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS.



THE HURRICANE'S INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/7 KT, WITH

SERGIO LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL

RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO

BUILD WESTWARD AND CONNECT TO ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, FORCING SERGIO TO TURN WESTWARD, OR EVEN

SOUTH OF DUE WEST, BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5, A LARGE

TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE GREATER

INFLUENCE, CAUSING SERGIO TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY THE



2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040851

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  20

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018



Sergio's intensity is estimated to have increased just a little

more this morning, and it remains a powerful category 4 hurricane.

Subjective Dvorak estimates are T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and T6.0/115

kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is raised to 120 kt, which

is a blend of these numbers and very close to the latest objective

ADT estimate.  Sergio's maximum winds are expected to change little

over the next 12-24 hours, and the hurricane's intensity could very

well be modulated by difficult-to-forecast internal processes such

as eyewall replacement cycles.  After 48 hours, an increase in

shear and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures should result

in some weakening, especially when Sergio moves more slowly at the

end of the forecast period and possibly upwells some cooler water

from below.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward

during the first 48 hours to follow the latest consensus aids, but

no changes were made to the previous forecast beyond 48 hours.



The hurricane's initial motion is northwestward, or 320/7 kt, with

Sergio located along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level

ridge extending westward from Mexico.  This ridge is expected to

build westward and connect to another mid-level ridge located near

the central Pacific Ocean, forcing Sergio to turn westward, or even

south of due west, between 36-72 hours.  By days 4 and 5, a large

trough near the west coast of the United States should have greater

influence, causing Sergio to slow down and turn northward by the

end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly

clustered for much of the forecast period, although a notable

southward shift among the guidance, especially from the ECMWF,

required a bit of a southward shift in the official forecast as

well.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/0900Z 14.4N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 12H  04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 96H  08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

120H  09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 040850

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018



...SERGIO A LITTLE STRONGER...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.4N 118.8W

ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND

WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON

FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150

MILES (240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 040850 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z

AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.5W



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.



2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 040850

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z

AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.5W



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 118.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-04 04:34

WTPN32 PHNC 040400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 019//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   040000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 118.0W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 118.0W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 14.6N 119.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 15.5N 120.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 15.9N 121.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 15.9N 122.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 15.6N 125.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 15.8N 128.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 17.0N 129.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

040400Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 118.4W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1153 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 33 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-04 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040236 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



SERGIO IS QUITE THE SIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A

LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND MESOVORTICES OBSERVED WITHIN THE

WELL-DEFINED EYE.  SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH

SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 115 KT ON THIS

ADVISORY, WHICH IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN LOWER MICROWAVE

ESTIMATES BUT HIGHER ADT VALUES.  NOTABLY, SERGIO IS THE RECORD MOST

8TH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE 2018 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON-

BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 7 SET IN 2015. RELIABLE RECORDS IN THE

EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MAJOR HURRICANES GO BACK TO 1971.



FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE WATER IS QUITE WARM.

AFTER THAT TIME, A COMBINATION OF COOLING WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR

SHOULD GENERALLY CAUSE SERGIO TO WEAKEN.  THIS WILL PROBABLY BE AN

UNSTEADY PROCESS, HOWEVER, SINCE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  OVERALL, THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING

TREND, AND THAT IS THE NHC FORECAST, VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

ONE, AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.



SERGIO IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315/8.  THIS MOTION SHOULD GRADUALLY

BEND TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STEERING FLOW

CHANGES FROM A RIDGE NEAR MEXICO TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE

NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  SERGIO COULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHWESTERN

UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING



2018-10-04 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040236

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018



Sergio is quite the sight tonight over the eastern Pacific with a

large central dense overcast and mesovortices observed within the

well-defined eye.  Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB both

support a slightly higher initial wind speed of 115 kt on this

advisory, which is a good compromise between lower microwave

estimates but higher ADT values.  Notably, Sergio is the record most

8th category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific season-

breaking the old record of 7 set in 2015. Reliable records in the

eastern Pacific for major hurricanes go back to 1971.



Further strengthening is possible during the next day or so while

the shear is forecast to remain low and the water is quite warm.

After that time, a combination of cooling waters and higher shear

should generally cause Sergio to weaken.  This will probably be an

unsteady process, however, since eyewall cycles are also likely over

the next few days.  Overall, the hurricane should be on a weakening

trend, and that is the NHC forecast, very similar to the previous

one, and a bit higher than the model consensus.



Sergio is moving northwest or 315/8.  This motion should gradually

bend toward the west over the next day or two as the steering flow

changes from a ridge near Mexico to a building ridge to the

northwest of the hurricane.  Sergio could turn to the northwest

early next week as the hurricane comes under the influence of

a deepening trough over the far eastern Pacific and southwestern

United States. The model guidance is in excellent agreement during

the next few days, and no significant changes were required to the

previous forecast.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  04/0300Z 13.8N 118.3W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  04/1200Z 14.6N 119.1W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  05/0000Z 15.5N 120.4W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  05/1200Z 15.9N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  06/0000Z 15.9N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  07/0000Z 15.6N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 96H  08/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

120H  09/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W   75 KT  85 MPH



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-10-03 22:34

WTPN32 PHNC 032200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 018

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   031800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 117.6W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 117.6W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 14.1N 118.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 15.2N 120.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 15.8N 121.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   051800Z --- 16.1N 122.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   061800Z --- 15.8N 124.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 15.6N 127.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 16.4N 129.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

032200Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 118.0W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 33 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 032045 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



SERGIO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE THIS

AFTERNOON.  SEVERAL MESOVORTICES CAN BE IDENTIFIED ROTATING WITHIN

THE EYE.  HOWEVER, THE EYE IS SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY UPPER-LEVEL

CLOUDS AND THE EYEWALL EDGE IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED.  BASED ON A

BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, THE ADVISORY

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 110 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME AS IN THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SERGIO SHOULD REMAIN IN QUITE FAVORABLE

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.  BY

FRIDAY, SERGIO WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE

TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, WHICH SHOULD

INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING.



SERGIO IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 305/8 KT. BY

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE

NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST

LIES CLOSE TO THE EQUALLY WEIGHTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN.



IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT A SMALL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY

LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SERGIO IS

EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE

OVERNIGHT.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W  115 KT 130 MPH



2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 032045

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018



Sergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this

afternoon.  Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within

the eye.  However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level

clouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined.  Based on a

blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory

intensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the

previous advisory.  Sergio should remain in quite favorable

atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and

additional strengthening is expected through Thursday.  By

Friday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface

temperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should

initiate gradual weakening.



Sergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By

Friday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn

west-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the

north and northwest of the hurricane.  The official track forecast

lies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN.



It is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently

located a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is

expected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane

overnight.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

 96H  07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

120H  08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 032044

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



...SERGIO MAINTAINING 125 MPH WINDS...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.3N 117.9W

ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 032042 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 210SW 270NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z

AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.6W



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.



2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 032042

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 210SW 270NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z

AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.6W



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 117.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH/PENNY



2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 031432 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



SERGIO HAS INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING, WITH THE EYE BECOMING BETTER

DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL

OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE, BUT STRONG

OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  USING A BLEND OF

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY

ESTIMATE IS 110 KT.  SERGIO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF NEARLY

29 DEG C,  WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A HUMID MID-LEVEL AIR MASS FOR

THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THUS, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND

SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING

TREND TO BEGIN.  THE NHC FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE

INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, AND SHOWS SERGIO REMAINING A HURRICANE

THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.



THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND IS NOW MOVING AT

ABOUT 305/9 KT.  THIS TURN IS PROBABLY BEING CAUSED BY A WEAKNESS IN

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NEARING SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE GLOBAL

MODELS PREDICT THAT A RIDGE WILL REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO IN

A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W  120 KT 140 MPH



2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 031432

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018



Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better

defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops.  The upper-level

outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong

over the southern part of the circulation.  Using a blend of

objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity

estimate is 110 kt.  Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly

29 deg C,  with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for

the next day or so.  Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast

in the short term.  In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and

some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening

trend to begin.  The NHC forecast is at the high end of the

intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane

throughout the entire forecast period.



The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at

about 305/9 kt.  This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in

the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern

California.  As the trough moves away from the area, the global

models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in

a couple of days.  This should result in a turn toward the

west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond.  The official track

forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model

consensus predictions.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W  120 KT 140 MPH

 24H  04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W  120 KT 140 MPH

 48H  05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 031431

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.9N 117.3W

ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY

FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 031430 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z

AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.0W



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.



2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 031430

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z

AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.0W



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 117.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-03 15:34

WTPN32 PHNC 031600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 017//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 017

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   031200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 117.0W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 117.0W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 13.6N 118.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 14.7N 119.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 15.6N 120.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   051200Z --- 16.2N 122.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 16.3N 124.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 16.3N 127.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 17.0N 130.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

031600Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 117.4W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1206 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 33 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-03 10:33

WTPN32 PHNC 031000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 016

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   030600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 116.3W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 116.3W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   031800Z --- 13.0N 117.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   040600Z --- 14.0N 119.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   041800Z --- 15.0N 120.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   050600Z --- 15.8N 121.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   060600Z --- 16.3N 124.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 16.3N 127.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 16.8N 130.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

031000Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 116.8W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1243 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 31

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 030847 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE

HURRICANE OVERNIGHT.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW

THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT THERE IS

SOME NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL

CENTERS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS

AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT

THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING SERGIO WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24

TO 36 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SERGIO TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN

ABOUT 36 HOURS, AND IT IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE.  AFTER THAT TIME, SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND THE

ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE GRADUAL

WEAKENING, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE

ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.



SERGIO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE

WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO IS

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE

HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

BY THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD TO THE

NORTHWEST OF SERGIO, AND THIS SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO TURN

WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48

HOURS, BUT THERE IS INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEREAFTER.  THE

UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR



2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 030847

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018



There has been little change to the overall organization of the

hurricane overnight.  Recent microwave data continue to show

that the eyewall is open to the northwest and that there is

some northeast to southwest displacement of the low- and mid-level

centers due to northeasterly shear.  A blend of the various

objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates yields

an initial intensity of 100 kt.  The global models suggest that

the shear currently affecting Sergio will decrease over the next 24

to 36 hours, which should allow for strengthening.  The NHC

intensity forecast calls for Sergio to reach peak intensity in

about 36 hours, and it is near the upper-end of the intensity

guidance.  After that time, slightly cooler waters and the

entrainment of drier mid-level air are forecast to cause gradual

weakening, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the

entire forecast period.



Sergio is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 10 kt.  The

western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is

expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the

hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed.

By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the

northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn

westward.  The track guidance is in good agreement through 48

hours, but there is increasing cross-track spread thereafter.  The

updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for

the first two days, but lies between the more northern GFS solution

and the consensus aids thereafter.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/0900Z 12.3N 116.7W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 030846

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018



...SERGIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.3N 116.7W

ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 030846 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z

AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.



2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 030846

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z

AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 116.7W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-03 04:34

WTPN32 PHNC 030400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 015

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   030000Z --- NEAR 11.5N 115.4W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 115.4W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   031200Z --- 12.5N 117.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   040000Z --- 13.6N 118.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   041200Z --- 14.6N 119.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   050000Z --- 15.5N 121.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   060000Z --- 16.4N 123.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 16.5N 126.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 16.8N 129.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

030400Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 115.9W.

HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 31

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 030238 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018



THE EYE OF SERGIO HAS BECOME OBSCURED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,

INDICATING THAT THE INTENSIFYING TREND HAS LEVELLED OFF.  IT

APPEARS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE INNER CORE AS THE

LATEST MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN OPEN EYEWALL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE

OF THE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY SINCE THE OVERALL WIND SPEED ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED

MUCH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR SPREAD IN THOSE VALUES.  THE SHEAR

IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WHICH SHOULD

ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SERGIO, PENDING ANY EYEWALL CYCLES.

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES

OVER MORE SHALLOW MARGINALLY WARM WATERS.  ONLY A SMALL CHANGE HAS

BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST, AND THE REST OF THE

FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.



SERGIO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED DOWN, AS

FORECAST, NOW 300/9.   A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK IS

EXPECTED AS A RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO FOR THE NEXT DAY

OR TWO.  THEREAFTER, A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE

NORTHWEST OF SERGIO, WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD MOTION.  AS HAS

BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY CYCLONES THIS SEASON, THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE

IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE

ECMWF/UKMET ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE.  THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED QUITE

STEADY NEAR THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST, THUS

THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 030238

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018



The eye of Sergio has become obscured over the past several hours,

indicating that the intensifying trend has levelled off.  It

appears that northeasterly shear is affecting the inner core as the

latest microwave data indicate an open eyewall on the northern side

of the hurricane.  The intensity is held at 100 kt for this

advisory since the overall wind speed estimates haven't changed

much, although there is a fair spread in those values.  The shear

is forecast to decrease over the next day or two, which should

allow further strengthening of Sergio, pending any eyewall cycles.

Weakening is expected in the longer range while the hurricane moves

over more shallow marginally warm waters.  Only a small change has

been made to the short term intensity forecast, and the rest of the

forecast is essentially the same.



Sergio has turned toward the west-northwest and slowed down, as

forecast, now 300/9.   A west-northwest or northwest track is

expected as a ridge weakens to the north of Sergio for the next day

or two.  Thereafter, a strong ridge is forecast to build to the

northwest of Sergio, which should force a westward motion.  As has

been the case for many cyclones this season, the GFS-based guidance

is on the right side of track guidance envelope, while the

ECMWF/UKMET are on the left side.  The consensus has remained quite

steady near the previous interpolated official forecast, thus

the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous one.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  03/0300Z 11.8N 115.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 48H  05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W  115 KT 130 MPH

 72H  06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 030236

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

800 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018



...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.8N 115.8W

ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H).  A WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.



....

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 030236 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z

AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 115.4W



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE  90SW 150NW.



2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 030236

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z

AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 115.4W



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

34 KT...150NE 110SE  90SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 115.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 022032 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018



SERGIO HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.  THE EYE OF THE

HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AND IS EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD

CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.  OUTER BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO WELL

DEFINED.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS STRONG OVER THE WESTERN AND

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A LITTLE RESTRICTED TO

THE NORTHEAST.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET, PROBABLY

CONSERVATIVELY, TO 100 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM

SAB.  ONLY MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SERGIO

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THAT, ALONG WITH WARM WATERS AND A VERY

MOIST MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE.



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD, OR 280/11 KT.  THERE

IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS

COUPLE OF ADVISORY PACKAGES.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

SERGIO SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A BROAD

TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING

FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY

THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT, AND TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ON

WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE AND, AGAIN, FOLLOWS THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



SOME SLIGHT ENLARGEMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE MADE OVER THE

EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SERGIO BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 022032

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018



Sergio has intensified significantly today.  The eye of the

hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold

convective cloud tops.  Outer banding features are also well

defined.  Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and

southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to

the northeast.  The advisory intensity is set, probably

conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from

SAB.  Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio

over the next few days.  That, along with warm waters and a very

moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further

strengthening.  The official forecast is near the upper end of the

intensity guidance model suite.



The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt.  There

is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous

couple of advisory packages.  A mid-level ridge to the north of

Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad

trough drops in from the northwest.  These changes in the steering

flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by

this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on

Wednesday.  The official track forecast is is very similar to the

previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus.



Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the

eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W  100 KT 115 MPH

 12H  03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W  120 KT 140 MPH

 48H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 72H  05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 022030

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

200 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018



...SERGIO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.2N 115.1W

ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES

(240 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.



....

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 022030 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

EYE DIAMETER  15 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z

AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.6W



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 022030

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

EYE DIAMETER  15 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z

AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.6W



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 130SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 115.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-02 19:35

WTPZ61 KNHC 021845

TCUEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1145 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018



...SERGIO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SERGIO IS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING,

AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AN ESTIMATED 115 MPH

(185 KM/H), WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BE

REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST ISSUED IN THE 2 PM PDT (2100

UTC) ADVISORY PACKAGE.





SUMMARY OF 1145 AM PDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.1N 114.7W

ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES



....

FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH



2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018



THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON

SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE HURRICANE HAS A VERY COLD CLOUD-TOPPED

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, SURROUNDED BY CURVED

BANDING FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT BASED ON A

BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  SERGIO IS

FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS, UNDER MODERATE

VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITHIN A MOIST MID-LEVEL AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT

FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY, AND SERGIO

WILL PROBABLY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS, IVCN.



THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE,

AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE

NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SOON BE ERODING, DUE TO A TROUGH DROPPING

IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS CHANGE IN STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD

RESULT IN SERGIO TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY FOLLOWED

BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO

CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  THE NHC

TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE

DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN, FAIRLY CLOSELY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH



2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ41 KNHC 021433

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018



The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on

satellite imagery.  The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped

central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved

banding features.  The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a

blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  Sergio is

forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate

vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next

few days.  Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio

will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so.  The official

intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN.



The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace,

and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the

north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping

in from the northwest.  This change in steering currents should

result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed

by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days.  In the latter part of the

forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to

cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west.  The NHC

track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the

dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 24H  03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ31 KNHC 021433

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018



...SERGIO STILL STRENGTHENING...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.6N 114.0W

ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR

HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES

(205 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.



....

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ21 KNHC 021432 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z

AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 113.5W



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ21 KNHC 021432

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z

AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 113.5W



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 114.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018



GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SERGIO CONTINUES TO

STRENGTHEN.   THE CENTER IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO

WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80 DEGREES C.  EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA

SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND INNER CORE, BUT A MORE RECENT AMSU

OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT EROSION OF THE

EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYE, POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME INTRUSION OF DRY

MID-LEVEL AIR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 75 TO 90 KT,

AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO A POSSIBILITY

CONSERVATIVE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  ALTHOUGH

SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE AND STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST

12 HOUR OR SO, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR

WILL INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE TODAY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER

THE INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, HOWEVER,

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL

INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND IS CLOSE TO

THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 H, COOLER WATERS AND THE

ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.



SERGIO IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/12 KT.  THE

HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE,

AND SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN



2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 020852

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018



Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to

strengthen.   The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO

with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C.  Earlier microwave data

showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU

overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the

eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry

mid-level air.  Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt,

and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility

conservative 75 kt for this advisory.



The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain.  Although

Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past

12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear

will increase over the hurricane today.  This is expected to temper

the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however,

most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during

the next day or so.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual

increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to

the IVCN model consensus.  After 72 h, cooler waters and the

entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening.



Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt.  The

hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge,

and Sergio should continue westward today.  The global models show

the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several

days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then

northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge

is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane

is forecast to turn back toward the west.  The overall guidance

envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is

similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus

aids.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 020852 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z

AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.7W



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 020852

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z

AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.7W



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 113.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 020258 RRA

TCDEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



A JUST-RECEIVED GMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SERGIO HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED WITH FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL UNDER A

CONVECTIVE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -85C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 55-65 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED

STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE.

THUS, SERGIO IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE BETTER STRUCTURE OF

SERGIO IS NOW CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER, THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE

TO 20-25 KT BY 24 H, WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STOP RAPID

DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SLOW

STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE

GUIDANCE TREND IN CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING, BUT THERE COULD

BE A 12-H OR SO BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SHEAR GETS

TOO STRONG.  THE SHEAR SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER ABOUT 36 H WHILE SERGIO

IS STILL OVER WARM WATER, AND THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING

A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE 72 H POINT IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.  AFTER 72 H, A COMBINATION OF DECREASING

SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND ENTRAINMENT OF

DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/12.  AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,

A WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A



2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 020258

TCDEP1



Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018



A just-received GMI overpass indicates that Sergio has become better

organized with formation of a well-defined eye and eyewall under a

convective overcast with cloud tops to -85C.  Satellite intensity

estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and based on the improved

structure, the intensity will be set at the upper end of that range.

Thus, Sergio is upgraded to a hurricane.



The intensity forecast is low confidence.  The better structure of

Sergio is now conducive for rapid intensification.  However, the

large-scale models forecast northeasterly vertical shear to increase

to 20-25 kt by 24 h, which should be strong enough to stop rapid

development, although the guidance suggests at least slow

strengthening during this time.  The intensity forecast follows the

guidance trend in calling for gradual strengthening, but there could

be a 12-h or so burst of rapid intensification before the shear gets

too strong.  The shear should subside after about 36 h while Sergio

is still over warm water, and the forecast shows the system becoming

a major hurricane near the 72 h point in response to the more

favorable conditions.  After 72 h, a combination of decreasing

sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of

drier air should lead to gradual weakening.



The initial motion is 265/12.  As stated in the previous discussion,

a westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during

the next day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a

mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by late

Tuesday, followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the

western portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale

mid- to upper-level trough near the southwestern United States.  By

the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the

north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back toward the west. The

track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the

new NHC track is close to both the previous forecast track and the

consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  02/0300Z 10.9N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 020250

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



...SERGIO BECOMES A HURRICANE...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.9N 112.0W

ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST.  SERGIO IS MOVING

TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS

FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS

FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES

(205 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.



....

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 020249 RRA

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z

AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.5W



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 020249

TCMEP1



HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z

AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.5W



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 112.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ41 KNHC 012033 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



SERGIO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED LIKE THE MODELS AND NHC HAVE PREDICTED

UP TO THIS POINT.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A

WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE

CIRCULATION, THERE ARE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTS THAT HAVE ENTRAINED INTO

THE INNER CORE.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED

LOW-LEVEL EYE, BUT THE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE IS LESS ORGANIZED NOW AS

COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD

AT 60 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS

FROM TAFB AND SAB.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING.  THE WIND SHEAR AROUND

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BESIDES FOR

A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE 24- TO 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD.  THESE

CONDITIONS AND WARM SSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW

DAYS SUPPORT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE STORM

HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THAT COULD CONTINUE

TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEADY

STRENGTHENING, AND THE NHC FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE.  HOWEVER, THIS

FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM.

BEYOND A FEW DAYS, A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER SSTS AND A

DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN MODEL.



SERGIO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 11 KT.  A WESTWARD

MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL



2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ41 KNHC 012033

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018



Sergio has not strengthened like the models and NHC have predicted

up to this point.  Although the storm continues to have a

well-defined curved band over the south and east portions of the

circulation, there are pronounced dry slots that have entrained into

the inner core.  Recent microwave images show a well-defined

low-level eye, but the mid-level structure is less organized now as

compared to several hours ago.  The initial intensity is again held

at 60 kt, in agreement with an average of the Dvorak classifications

from TAFB and SAB.



The intensity forecast remains challenging.  The wind shear around

Sergio is expected to be low for the next several days, besides for

a brief increase in the 24- to 48-hour time period.  These

conditions and warm SSTs beneath the cyclone during the next few

days support strengthening.  However, as mentioned above, the storm

has been struggling with dry air entrainment and that could continue

to plague the system.  The latest models continue to show steady

strengthening, and the NHC forecast does likewise.  However, this

forecast shows a slower rate of intensification in the short term.

Beyond a few days, a combination of slightly lower SSTs and a

decrease in moisture should cause a slow weakening trend.  The NHC

intensity forecast is in best agreement with the IVCN model.



Sergio is moving just south of due west at 11 kt.  A westward

motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next

day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level

ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected by late Tuesday

followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the western

portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale mid- to

upper-level trough near the southwestern U.S. By the end of the

forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of

Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left.  The models

have shifted to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC track

forecast has been adjusted in those directions.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/2100Z 11.3N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  06/1800Z 17.8N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ31 KNHC 012033

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



...SERGIO REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.3N 111.0W

ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS

FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.



....

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ21 KNHC 012032 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z

AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 110.4W



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ21 KNHC 012032

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z

AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 110.4W



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.0W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 111.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 011433 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



SERGIO IS ALMOST A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE

CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS, BUT THERE ARE STILL NO INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN

THAT DATA.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER.

THE OUTER BANDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED, AND THERE ARE

SOME DRY SLOTS BEYOND THE INNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD

AT 60 KT, FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.



AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO

BULLISH ON SERGIO STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOTS THAT WERE NOT WELL

PREDICTED BY BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  LOOKING

AHEAD TO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

MIXED.  THE WIND SHEAR AND SSTS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS

PREDICTED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.  HOWEVER, AS SEEN DURING THE PAST

DAY OR TWO, DRY AIR COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE.  BEYOND A

COUPLE OF DAYS, THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A

STEADY DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SSTS.  THESE CONDITIONS

WILL LIKELY END THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND CAUSE A SLOW

WEAKENING TREND.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS

THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT LIES BETWEEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE HCCA AND

IVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.



SERGIO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO



2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 011433

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018



Sergio is almost a hurricane.  Satellite images indicate that the

central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past

several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in

that data.  Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however.

The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are

some dry slots beyond the inner core.  The initial intensity is held

at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates.



As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too

bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days.

This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well

predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance.  Looking

ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are

mixed.  The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening

during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is

predicted during that time period.  However, as seen during the past

day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate.  Beyond a

couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a

steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs.  These conditions

will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow

weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as

the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and

IVCN consensus models.



Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to

its north and northeast.  A continued westward motion is expected

for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then

the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a

large-scale trough near the southwestern United States.  By the end

of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of

Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left.  The models are

in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to

the previous forecast track.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi



2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ31 KNHC 011433

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



...SERGIO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.5N 109.5W

ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 790 MI...1265 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST.  SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND A MAJOR

HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.



....

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 011432 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z

AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.9W



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 011432

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z

AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.9W



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 109.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



2018-10-01 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 010853 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...

............................................................EXPECTED

    TO

    BECOME

    A

    HURRICANE

    LATER

    TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.5N 108.6W

ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND

A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------



2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 010854 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



SERGIO'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS WAXED

AND WANED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A PREVIOUSLY LARGE, SOLID

CURVED BAND HAS BECOME BROKEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT

THE COMMA HEAD OR CDO OF THE CLOUD BAND HAS INCREASED IN SIZE WHILE

CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C. PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY

INDICATES THAT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE AN 18-20-NMI-WIDE

CLOSED EYE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WHILE THE MID- AND

UPPER-LEVEL EYE REMAINS OPEN AND RAGGED. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES REMAIN T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE

WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL EYE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO

60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/12 KT, BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE

SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY

WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A

STRONG, DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48

HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND

OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE

WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING SERGIO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

ON DAY 2 AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 3-5.  THE NEW NHC TRACK

FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES NEAR A

BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA, TVCE, AND HCCA.



BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO

BULLISH ON SERGIO STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH

THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST WITH NEAR 80 PERCENT MID-LEVEL



2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 010854

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018



Sergio's convective pattern in infrared satellite imagery has waxed

and waned since the previous advisory. A previously large, solid

curved band has become broken during the past couple of hours, but

the comma head or CDO of the cloud band has increased in size while

cloud tops have cooled to near -80C. Passive microwave imagery

indicates that within the comma head feature an 18-20-nmi-wide

closed eye has developed in the low-levels, while the mid- and

upper-level eye remains open and ragged. Subjective intensity

estimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, based on the

well-defined, low-level eye, the intensity has been nudged upward to

60 kt for this advisory.



The initial motion is now 270/12 kt, based primarily on microwave

satellite fix positions. Sergio is forecast to move generally

westward for the next 36 hours or so, under the influence of a

strong, deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By 48

hours, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and

offshore of the western U.S. is expected to gradually erode the

western part of the ridge, allowing Sergio turn west-northwestward

on day 2 and move northwestward on days 3-5.  The new NHC track

forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near a

blend of the consensus models TCVA, TVCE, and HCCA.



Both the statistical and dynamical intensity models have been too

bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past 36 hours. Although

the environment is quite moist with near 80 percent mid-level

humidity values, a pronounced dry intrusion eroding the inner-core

convection remains. By the time the dry air mixes out, modest

northerly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder development in

the 24-48 hour period. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is

forecast to decrease below 10 kt, but Sergio will be moving over

cooler waters at that time. Given the mixed environmental signals,

the official intensity is on the conservative side and remains well

below the stronger HCCA and FSSE models, and closer to the simple

consensus model IVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/0900Z 11.5N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W   90 KT 105 MPH



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 010853

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018



...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...

............EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.5N 108.6W

ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND

A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.



...........

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 010852 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z

AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 010852

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z

AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 108.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 010237 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018



OVERALL, SERGIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF A RAGGED

BAND WRAPPING ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER,

WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  RECENT

MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN

EARLIER HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION.  HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER SEEMS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON UNCHANGED SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES.



THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 260/11.  FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO, SERGIO

SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD AROUND THE

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING

FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AFTER THAT TIME, A

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND OFFSHORE

OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE. THIS

DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW SERGIO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO

NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS AN

UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.



CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SERGIO TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE

NEXT 36 H IF THE CYCLONE CAN BECOME WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO TAKE

ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST

PRESUMES THIS WILL HAPPEN AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST OF QUICK STRENGTHENING.  FROM 36-48 H, A BURST OF

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SERGIO, WHICH SHOULD AT



2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 010237

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018



Overall, Sergio has changed little in organization over the past

several hours.  The convective pattern is comprised of a ragged

band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center,

with the strongest convection to the north of the center.  Recent

microwave data show that the mid-level circulation center seen

earlier has lost some definition.  However, the low-level

circulation center seems to be becoming better defined.  The

initial intensity remains 55 kt based on unchanged satellite

intensity estimates.



The initial motion remains 260/11.  For the next 36 h or so, Sergio

should move westward or just south of due westward around the

southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending

from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.  After that time, a

mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore

of the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This

development will allow Sergio turn west-northwestward to

northwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed.  The new

forecast track is near the various consensus models and is an

update of the previous track.



Conditions appear favorable for Sergio to rapidly intensify in the

next 36 h if the cyclone can become well enough organized to take

advantage of the environment.  This part of the intensity forecast

presumes this will happen and is unchanged from the previous

forecast of quick strengthening.  From 36-48 h, a burst of

northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio, which should at

least slow intensification.  Based on this and the shear letting up

at 72 h, the intensity forecast is tweaked to show the peak

intensity after the shear decreases.  After 72 h, decreasing sea

surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual

weakening.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  01/0300Z 11.6N 107.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W   90 KT 105 MPH



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 010236

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

900 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AND EXPECTED

TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.6N 107.3W

ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST.  SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY

AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.



....

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 010236 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z

AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 106.7W



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 010236

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z

AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 106.7W



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 107.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-01 00:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 302034 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE

OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...

....................................................................ST

    ...STI

    ..STIL

    .STILL

    EXPECTED

    TO

    BECOME

    A

    HURRICANE

    TONIGHT

    OR

    EARLY

    MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.5N 106.3W

ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A

MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.



2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 302035 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018



SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL AS MICROWAVE

AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SERGIO IS

FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR

THE CENTER HAS BECOME RAGGED IN APPEARANCE AND ELONGATED FROM

EAST-WEST.  HOWEVER, MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE

UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTING 55 KT, WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY

FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/11 KT, PARTIALLY DUE TO

ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO

CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SERGIO SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD

OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE

DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD

ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY 48 HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN U.S.

WILL ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE

CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48- TO

96-HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. VERY NEAR THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOW-

TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.

THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD TURN BY 120 HOURS.



DESPITE THE CURRENT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE, THE

ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-SHEAR, HIGH-MOISTURE, AND WARM WATERS ARE



2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 302035

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018



Satellite imagery over the past several hours as well as microwave

and scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sergio is

farther south than previously analyzed. The deep convection near

the center has become ragged in appearance and elongated from

east-west.  However, microwave data continues to show a well-defined

mid-level circulation, and satellite intensity estimates are

unanimously supporting 55 kt, which will be the initial intensity

for this advisory.



The initial motion estimate is now 260/11 kt, partially due to

adjustment of the center farther south. Otherwise, there are no

changes in the forecast track philosophy from the previous advisory.

For the next couple of days, Sergio should move generally westward

or just south of due west around the southern periphery of a large

deep-layer subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward

across the eastern Pacific. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level

trough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S.

will erode the western part of the ridge. This will allow the

cyclone to turn west-northwestward to northwestward from 48- to

96-hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Very near the end

of the forecast period, the trough should shift eastward and low-

to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.

This pattern change should induce a more westward turn by 120 hours.



Despite the current ragged appearance of the cyclone, the

environment of low-shear, high-moisture, and warm waters are

expected to support a period of rapid intensification sometime

within the next 36 hours or so. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is

expected to develop over the storm and increase to 25 kt by 48

hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not

weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,

global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt for

the remainder of the forecast period. There may be a window of time

beginning after 72 hours where some additional strengthening could

occur. By 96 hours, the system will then be moving over waters of

26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. The

current intensity forecast calls for a steadying of intensity after

the shear abates, then a slow weakening trend commences by the end

of the period due to cooler SSTs. Other than a slight delay in

Sergio becoming a hurricane, the intensity forecast is essentially

the same as the previous forecast and remains close to the

dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast, Sergio

is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  30/2100Z 11.5N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH



$$

Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi



2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 302034

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

300 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE

OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...

..................STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR

    EARLY

    MONDAY...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.5N 106.3W

ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A

MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.



.................

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO



2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 302034 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  30SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z

AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 105.8W



FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 302034

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  30SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z

AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 105.8W



FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 106.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO



2018-09-30 19:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 301457 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN

COAST OF MEXICO...

.....................................................................

    ......

    ......

    .....E

    ....EX

    ...EXP

    ..EXPE

    .EXPEC

    EXPECT

    XPECTE

    PECTED

    TO

    BECOME

    A

    HURRICANE

    BY

    TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.1N 105.4W

ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR

HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND



2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 301457 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018



RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF SERGIO

CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED, WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE

EVIDENT. HOWEVER, THIS EYE FEATURE IS NOT YET APPARENT IN

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP

TEMPERATURES OF -70 C ARE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE STORM'S CENTER AS

WELL AS ALONG A PROMINENT BANDING FEATURE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE

AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN

INTENSITY OF 50 KT, WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE

PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SERGIO

SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST

AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

BY 48 HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD

ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE WESTERN U.S., WHICH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE FROM

THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

THEN NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48- TO 96-HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOW-

TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.

THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD TURN TOWARD

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.



SERGIO WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-SHEAR, HIGH-MOISTURE,

AND OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WHICH SHOULD



2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 301457

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018



Recent microwave data indicate that the inner core of Sergio

continues to become better defined, with an eye-like feature

evident. However, this eye feature is not yet apparent in

geostationary satellite imagery. Deep convection with cloud top

temperatures of -70 C are concentrated around the storm's center as

well as along a prominent banding feature on the south side. The

average of available satellite intensity estimates support an

intensity of 50 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this

advisory.



The initial motion estimate is 270/11 kt. There continues to be no

significant changes in the forecast track philosophy from the

previous few forecasts. For the next couple of days, Sergio

should move generally westward or just south of due west

around the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical

ridge that extends from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.

By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough will move southeastward

along and offshore the western U.S., which will erode the ridge from

the west. This will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward

then northwestward from 48- to 96-hours with a gradual decrease in

forward speed. Thereafter, the trough should shift eastward and low-

to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.

This pattern change should induce a more westward turn toward

the end of the forecast period.



Sergio will remain in an environment of low-shear, high-moisture,

and over warm waters for the next 24 hours or so, which should

result in rapid intensification. This is in agreement with rapid

intensification indices from the SHIPS model of 40 to 45 percent

over the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is expected

to develop over the storm environment and increase to 25 kt by 48

hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not

weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,

global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt by

96 hours, but by that time the system will be moving over waters of

26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. Based

on this, the intensity remains steady from 72- to 96-hours and then

shows slow weakening by the end of the period. The intensity

forecast is a little higher that the previous advisory, and is close

to the dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast,

Sergio is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  30/1500Z 12.1N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W   90 KT 105 MPH



$$

Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi



2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 301457

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN

COAST OF MEXICO...

........EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.1N 105.4W

ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR

HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.



.......

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO



2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 301456 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z

AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 104.8W



FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 301456

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z

AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 104.8W



FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 105.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO



2018-09-30 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 300853 RRA

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

400 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN

COAST OF MEXICO...

..............................................................EXPECTED

    TO

    BECOME

    A

    HURRICANE

    LATER

    TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.0N 104.3W

ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

72 HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT

AND BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.



2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 300854 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

400 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018



MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES, ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER

WIND DATA, INDICATE THAT SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED, WITH STRONG CONVECTION NOW MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE

CENTER. HOWEVER, SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND

FIELD IS STILL RATHER LOOSE AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED QUITE

YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND

SAB, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0536 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CONTAINED A

FEW 45-KT VECTORS EAST OF THE CENTER.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FOR THE NEXT 48

HOURS OR SO, SERGIO SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE, DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT

EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.

BY 72 HOURS, A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP

SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE

NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE WHICH WILL

ALLOW SERGIO TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD

SPEED THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO

BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE

TO AN AVERAGE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE, HCCA, AND FSSE.



SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR, WARM-WATER, AND

HIGH-MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, DURING WHICH



2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 300854

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018



Microwave and infrared satellite images, along with scatterometer

wind data, indicate that Sergio has continued to become better

organized, with strong convection now more concentrated near the

center. However, scatterometer data showed that the inner-core wind

field is still rather loose and not particularly well-defined quite

yet. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a

Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and

SAB, which is supported by a 0536 UTC ASCAT pass that contained a

few 45-kt vectors east of the center.



The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. There is no significant

change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. For the next 48

hours or so, Sergio should move generally westward along the

southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge that

extends from Mexico westward across the eastern and central Pacific.

By 72 hours, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to drop

southward and southeastward over the southwestern U.S. and the

northeastern Pacific, producing a break in the ridge which will

allow Sergio to move toward the northwest at a slower forward

speed through 120 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to

but slightly south of the previous advisory track, and lies close

to an average of the consensus models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE.



Sergio is forecast to remain in a low-shear, warm-water, and

high-moisture environment for the next 36 hours or so, during which

time rapid intensification is expected. In the 48- to 72-hour

period, the vertical shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global

models to increase from the northeast at around 25 kt, which should

act to cap the strengthening process, and possibly even induce some

weakening. By 96 and 120 hours, the shear is expected to decrease

to 5 kt or less, which would favor re-strengthening. However, due

to the uncertainty in how much Sergio's inner-core wind field will

be disrupted by the aforementioned strong shear, the intensity

forecast is simply leveled off at 95 kt at 72 hours and beyond.

The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous

advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model, which is

lower than the more robust HCCA and FSSE models, which bring Sergio

to near category 4 strength in 36-48 hours.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  30/0900Z 12.0N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W   95 KT 110 MPH



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 300853

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

400 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018



...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN

COAST OF MEXICO...

...........EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.0N 104.3W

ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT

72 HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT

AND BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.



..........

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 300853 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z

AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.8W



FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W

MAX WIND  100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 300853

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z

AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.8W



FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W

MAX WIND  100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 104.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SERGIO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR

THE CENTER.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PAST

ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT, CLOSEST TO THE

CIMSS SATCON.  THE STORM SHOULD BE IN A LOW-SHEAR, WARM-WATER, AND

HIGH-MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  WHILE THERE

ARE NO SIGNS OF AN INNER CORE FORMING YET, THAT USUALLY DOESN'T

STOP STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND RAPID STRENGTHENING IS A DISTINCT

POSSIBILITY IN A DAY OR TWO.  THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED

FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.   ALTHOUGH

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING A HIGHER PEAK

INTENSITY, AN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT AT LONG RANGE LEADS ME TO A MORE

CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF MY

PREDICTION ENDED UP BEING TOO LOW, GIVEN THE INTENSE NATURE OF THIS

EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS CLOSE TO THE PREVOUS ONE, 275/9.  SERGIO

SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS

BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE

IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE

TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST, SO THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AT MOST TIME PERIODS.



2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018



Satellite images indicate that Sergio has become better organized

during the past several hours with more concentrated convection near

the center.  Intensity estimates are slightly higher than the past

advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, closest to the

CIMSS SATCON.  The storm should be in a low-shear, warm-water, and

high-moisture environment for the next 2 or 3 days.  While there

are no signs of an inner core forming yet, that usually doesn't

stop steady intensification, and rapid strengthening is a distinct

possibility in a day or two.  Thus the intensity forecast is raised

from the previous one and is close to the consensus.   Although

there are a number of reliable models showing a higher peak

intensity, an uncertain environment at long range leads me to a more

conservative forecast.  It would not be surprising at all if my

prediction ended up being too low, given the intense nature of this

eastern Pacific hurricane season.



The initial motion is close to the prevous one, 275/9.  Sergio

should be steered generally westward for the next two or three days

by the subtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone

is forecast to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large

mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to

a turn toward the northwest.  Similar to the previous advisory, the

track guidance has shifted slightly south and west, so the official

forecast is nudged in that direction at most time periods.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  30/0300Z 12.3N 103.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

120H  05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W   95 KT 110 MPH



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 300238

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018



...SERGIO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.3N 103.3W

ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS,

AND SERGIO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE

ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.



....

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 300238 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z

AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W



FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 300238

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z

AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W



FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  30SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 103.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 292042 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

400 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018



RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMS THAT SERGIO IS AT TROPICAL STORM

STRENGTH, BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY UNEXPECTED TWIST - THE MAXIMUM WINDS

ARE IN A BAND ABOUT 110 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND THERE IS NO

INNER WIND CORE AT THIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT

BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.  SERGIO CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS

OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS, BUT THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT NORTHERLY

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BELOW THE LEVEL OF THE OUTFLOW ARE CAUSING SOME

LIGHT SHEAR.



SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR

AND HIGH HUMIDITY, AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE

NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY STRENGTHENING.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION,

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR

QUICK STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL

INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24-36 H, WITH A FASTER RATE FROM

36-72 H AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.  NEAR THE END OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASING

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, AND THIS IS

REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE

OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND JUST ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS,

AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT

ADVISORIES.  THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON

THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE LATEST RADII GUIDANCE.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10.  SERGIO SHOULD BE STEERED



2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 292042

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018



Recent scatterometer data confirms that Sergio is at tropical storm

strength, but with a slightly unexpected twist - the maximum winds

are in a band about 110 n mi east of the center and there is no

inner wind core at this time.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt

based on the scatterometer data.  Sergio currently has good cirrus

outflow in all directions, but there is some evidence that northerly

upper-level winds below the level of the outflow are causing some

light shear.



Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear

and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the

next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening.

The environment is favorable enough for rapid intensification,

although the current storm structure does not appear favorable for

quick strengthening.  The intensity forecast calls for gradual

intensification during the first 24-36 h, with a faster rate from

36-72 h as the cyclone becomes better organized.  Near the end of

the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing

northeasterly shear which could limit intensification, and this is

reflected in the forecast.  The intensity forecast is in the middle

of the guidance envelope and just above the intensity consensus,

and the forecast may need to be adjusted upward in subsequent

advisories.  The wind radii forecast have been adjusted based on

the current structure and the latest radii guidance.



The initial motion is now 275/10.  Sergio should be steered

generally westward for the next three days or so by the subtropical

ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone should approach a

weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough

over California, and this should lead to a turn toward the

northwest. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this

scenario, and the new forecast track is similar to, but a little

south of, the previous track.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  29/2100Z 12.1N 102.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 48H  01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 292041

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

400 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018



...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.1N 102.8W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. SERGIO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND SERGIO

COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.



....

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 292041 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z

AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W



FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 292041

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT.......110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z

AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W



FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 102.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 291535 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW

PRESSURE AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME

BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED UNDER THE

CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND NEAR A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF BANDS IN THE

SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER

SCATTEROMETER DATA, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL

STORM SERGIO WITH 35 KT WINDS.



SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR

AND HIGH HUMIDITY, AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE

NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY STRENGTHENING. NEAR

THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASING

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST, WHICH IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CALLS FOR STEADY

STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 H, WITH SERGIO BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 48

H.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/11.  SERGIO SHOULD

BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO BY THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD

APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE HCCA

CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH



2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 291535

TCDEP1



Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018

1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018



Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low

pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become

better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the

convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the

southeastern semicircle.  Based on this and continuity from earlier

scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical

Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds.



Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear

and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the

next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near

the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing

northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity

forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady

strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48

h.



The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11.  Sergio should

be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the

subtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone should

approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to

upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn

toward the northwest.  The track guidance is in good agreement

with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA

corrected consensus model.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

120H  04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W   95 KT 110 MPH



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 291528

TCPEP1



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018



...TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...12.4N 102.1W

ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 1030 AM CDT (1530 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM

SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  A

GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND

SERGIO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)

MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.



....

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 291527 RRA

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z

AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.5W



FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 291527

TCMEP1



TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212018

1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z

AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.5W



FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 102.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN