Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MICHAEL-18
in United States, Cuba

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2018-10-12 09:33

WTNT44 KNHC 120848

TCDAT4



Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018



Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has

become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast

of the United States.  The initial intensity has been increased to

55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional

increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h.  After

that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast

to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h.  The revised

intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from

the Ocean Prediction Center.



The initial motion is 065/25.  The cyclone should move very rapidly

toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near

the end of the cyclone's life.



This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be

found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,

under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available

on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United

States can be found in products issued by local National Weather

Service forecast offices.



Key Messages:



1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from

eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,

flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell

very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.



2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over

portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and

the Delmarva Peninsula.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/0900Z 38.0N  73.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 12H  12/1800Z 40.4N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  13/0600Z 43.8N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  13/1800Z 46.2N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  14/0600Z 47.0N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  15/0600Z 46.0N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-12 09:33

WTNT34 KNHC 120847

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number  23

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES

AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...

...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...38.0N 73.1W

ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA

ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone

Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near

29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an

increase in forward speed during the next couple of days.  On the

forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the

United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean

tonight through Sunday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is expected today and

tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)

from the center.  NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds

of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast,

including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today.



WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of

southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva

Peninsula.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from

New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over

Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard through this afternoon. This

rainfall could lead to flash flooding.  Elsewhere, flooding and

flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very

recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal

northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be

found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,

under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available

on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United

States can be found in products issued by local National Weather

Service forecast offices.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-12 09:33

WTNT24 KNHC 120847

TCMAT4



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  73.1W AT 12/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  25 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT.......  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.

34 KT....... 90NE 240SE  80SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  73.1W AT 12/0900Z

AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N  75.0W



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.4N  66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 120SW  90NW.

34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.8N  55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 420SE 300SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 46.2N  42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 240SW   0NW.

34 KT...180NE 420SE 360SW 180NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.0N  28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...180NE 360SE 360SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 46.0N  11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW   0NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N  73.1W



THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-12 06:33

WTNT34 KNHC 120548

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 22A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

200 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018



...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL

STORM...

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL

OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN

MID-ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.3N 75.1W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 75.1 West.  Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h).  An east-

northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is

expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the

center of Michael will move away from the coast of the United

States during the next few hours and then begin to race

east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.



Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have

increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.  Michael is

expected to continue to strengthen while becoming a post-tropical

low during the next few hours.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),

primarily over water to the southeast of the center.  The National

Ocean Service station on the York River recently reported sustained

winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) at an

elevation of 48 ft (15 m), while the Norfolk Naval Air Station

reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of

75 mph (120 km/h).  Also, a Weatherflow station on the Chesapeake

Light Tower recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h)

and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) at an elevation of 135 ft

(41 m).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.



Gale- to storm-force winds are occurring over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula, and these conditions will continue for the next

several hours.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland,

Delaware, and southern New Jersey.  Isolated maximum totals of 7

inches are possible.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal

northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT44 KNHC 120253

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  22

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



Michael has just about lost its tropical characteristics.  The

low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it

becomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becoming

ill defined.  The center we have been tracking across North

Carolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia,

although it should be noted that a second low center, one with even

lower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore of

Chesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection.  Needless to say,

Michael has just about become post-tropical, and that

transformation should be complete overnight.  The estimated maximum

winds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal North

Carolina.  Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification of

the post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours,

following guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.  The

post-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days and

will likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west of

Europe by day 4.



The initial motion based on the continuity-following low center is

northeastward, or 055/22 kt.  Michael is embedded within the

mid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate toward

the east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during the

next couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48

hours.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and no

significant changes to the official track forecast were required.

Michael's center is expected to move off the coast of Virginia

within the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- and

gale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day on

Friday.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the

Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes

post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and

advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in

these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of

the southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight.



2. Strong, possibly damaging winds are expected over portions of

extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the

southern Delmarva peninsula overnight.  These winds have the

potential to cause tree and structural damage, plus power outages.



3. Dangerous storm surge is possible overnight along the sound side

of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where

a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  12/0300Z 37.1N  76.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  12/1200Z 39.2N  71.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  13/0000Z 42.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  13/1200Z 45.4N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  14/0000Z 47.1N  34.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  15/0000Z 47.6N  14.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT34 KNHC 120252

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number  22

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AND BECOME POST

TROPICAL...

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL

OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN

MID-ATLANTIC...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...37.1N 76.1W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape

Lookout North Carolina.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 76.1 West.  Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h).  An east-

northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward

speed is expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast

track, the center of Michael will move off the coast of Virginia

within the next hour or two and then begin to race

east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Michael is expected to become a post-tropical low overnight and

then intensity over the western Atlantic on Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445

km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula overnight and Friday morning when Michael

becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland,

Delaware, and southern New Jersey.  Isolated maximum totals of 7

inches are possible.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal

northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT24 KNHC 120252

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE

LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  76.1W AT 12/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  22 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT....... 60NE 240SE   0SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..  0NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  76.1W AT 12/0300Z

AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N  77.7W



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.2N  71.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

34 KT... 90NE 330SE 120SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.5N  61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.4N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT... 90NE 360SE 300SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.1N  34.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 300SE 270SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 47.6N  14.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 210SE 150SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N  76.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-12 00:32

WTNT34 KNHC 112349

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 21A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

800 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL

OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...36.5N 77.8W

ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Murrells Inlet South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 77.8 West.  Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion

is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through

tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward

speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the

center of Michael will cross into southeastern Virginia during the

next couple of hours and then move into the western Atlantic Ocean

overnight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher

gusts. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a

post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),

primarily over water to the southeast of the center.  A sustained

wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) was

recently reported at Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station in North

Carolina.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface

observations is 989 mb (29.20 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.

Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts will spread from central

North Carolina and southern Virginia across northeastern North

Carolina and eastern Virginia during the next several hours.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael

becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-

central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva

Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North

Carolina and Virginia.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal

northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.



TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from

northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the

Delmarva Peninsula.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-11 21:34

WTNT44 KNHC 112053

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



Satellite and radar data show that Michael's rain shield is

beginning to expand northward and northwestward, and that cooler and

drier air is starting to wrap around the western portion of the

circulation.  These trends indicate that Michael's transition to an

extratropical low has started.  There have been recent observations

of 40 to nearly 45 kt sustained winds along the southeastern coast

of North Carolina, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  Little

change in strength is expected through this evening, but Michael is

forecast to quickly intensify after it completes extratropical

transition and exits the east coast of the United States tonight.

The official intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA

Ocean Prediction Center.



It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to

50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation

over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a

result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this

area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across

portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this

evening and tonight.



Michael is moving northeastward or 050/21 kt. The storm will

continue to accelerate as it become further embedded within the

mid-latitude westerlies.  The post-tropical cyclone will race

across the north Atlantic during the next few days, before slowing

down late in the period before it weakens and dissipates.  The

track guidance continues to be in good agreement and little change

was required from the previous NHC track forecast.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the

Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes

post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and

advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in

these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of

North Carolina and southern Virginia and will continue through the

evening.



2. Damaging winds are spreading eastward across portions of central

and eastern North Carolina, and will continue through this evening.

These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage.

Strong winds are also expected over portions of southeastern

Virginia and the Virginia Eastern Shore tonight as Michael becomes

post-tropical.



3. Dangerous storm surge is possible tonight along the sound side of

the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a

Storm Surge Watch is in effect.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/2100Z 36.1N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 12H  12/0600Z 38.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 24H  12/1800Z 41.2N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  13/0600Z 44.5N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  13/1800Z 47.0N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  14/1800Z 48.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  15/1800Z 46.5N   7.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-11 21:34

WTNT34 KNHC 112051

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number  21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS

OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS

OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South

Carolina has been discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 78.8 West.  Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion

is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through

tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward

speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,

the center of Michael will move across eastern North Carolina and

southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western

Atlantic Ocean tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low

over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),

primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of

53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Danville, Virginia, and a

gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) was reported at Burlington, North Carolina.

A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h)

at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface

observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.

Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occuring across

portions of central North Carolina and southern Virginia and will

spread across northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia

this evening and tonight.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael

becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-

central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva

Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North

Carolina and Virginia.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal

northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.



TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from

northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the

Delmarva Peninsula.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-11 21:34

WTNT24 KNHC 112050

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH

CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N  78.8W AT 11/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  21 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

34 KT.......  0NE 200SE  60SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS..  0NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N  78.8W AT 11/2100Z

AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  80.0W



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.1N  74.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 240SE 120SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.2N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.5N  55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 360SE 270SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 47.0N  42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 210SE 210SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.5N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 210SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 46.5N   7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N  78.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-11 18:34

WTNT34 KNHC 111739

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 20A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

200 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH

CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...35.7N 80.0W

ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach South Carolina has

been discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is

expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through

tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward

speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,

the center of Michael will continue to move across central and

eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this

evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher

gusts, primarily over water south and east of the center. Little

change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds

primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas.

Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low

over the Atlantic late tonight.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),

mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 55 mph

(89 km/h) was recently reported at North Myrtle Beach, South

Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) has been reported at

Wilmington, North Carolina.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations

is 991 mb (29.26 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

northeastern South Carolina and will spread northward over central

and eastern North Carolina through this evening. Tropical storm

force wind gusts are expected across portions of North Carolina and

Virginia this afternoon and tonight.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael

becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to

northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast

Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated

maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and

Virginia.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash

floods.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central

Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.



TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through this evening across

central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-11 15:36

WTNT44 KNHC 111449

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  20

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of

Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will

be moving into central North Carolina shortly.  Sustained winds near

the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports

of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South

Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm.  It is assumed

that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest

winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern

portions of South Carolina this morning.  As Michael's circulation

emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is

expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward

along the coasts of South and North Carolina.  Late tonight, Michael

will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global

models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen

after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The post-tropical

portion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from

the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.



The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.

Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-

northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic

during the next couple of days.  There has been little change to

the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the

previous advisory.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the

Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes

post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and

advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in

these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.



Key Messages:



1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern

Virginia.



2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of

South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with

sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the

Carolinas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/1500Z 34.7N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 12H  12/0000Z 36.6N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 24H  12/1200Z 39.3N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  13/0000Z 42.8N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  13/1200Z 45.5N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  14/1200Z 48.2N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  15/1200Z 49.0N   9.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-11 15:36

WTNT34 KNHC 111448

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number  20

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND

GUSTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...34.7N 80.8W

ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning south of the Savannah River has been

discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Savannah River to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.8 West. Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is

expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through

tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward

speed are expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,

the center of Michael will continue to move across central and

eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia

this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest

winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the

Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-

tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),

mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 54 mph

(87 km/h) was recently reported at Folly Island, South Carolina.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 47

mph (76 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations

is 990 mb (29.23 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

central and eastern South Carolina and will spread northward over

central and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and evening.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael

becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to

northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast

Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated

maximum ttals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and

Virginia.  This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash

floods.



Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central

Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.



TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through this evening across

central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-11 15:36

WTNT24 KNHC 111448

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN

DISCONTINUED.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SAVANNAH RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  80.8W AT 11/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  20 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT....... 40NE 160SE  40SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..  0NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  80.8W AT 11/1500Z

AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  81.7W



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.6N  77.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...  0NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N  71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.8N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 180SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 320SE 240SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N  49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 200SE 180SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 360SE 300SW 150NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 48.2N  23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 240SE 210SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 480SE 480SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 49.0N   9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  80.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-11 12:35

WTNT34 KNHC 111154

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 19A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...34.1N 81.8W

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is

expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through

tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster

forward speed are expected on Friday.  On the forecast track, the

center of Michael will continue to move across central South

Carolina this morning, then move across portions of central and

eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this afternoon and

this evening, and move into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or

early Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest

winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the

Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-

tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)

mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A coastal marine

observing site at Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a

sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston,

South Carolina.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations

is 986 mb (29.12 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet

to Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

eastern and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina.  These

conditions will spread northward across central and eastern portions

of North Carolina today.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the

Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.



RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic

states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and

coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches

are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could

lead to life-threatening flash floods.



TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of

eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and

southeast Virginia.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-11 09:34

WTNT44 KNHC 110849

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that

Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern

Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased

to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force

winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to

the southeast of the center.  Michael should continue to weaken for

the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina

and into North Carolina.  After that time, the cyclone should start

to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become

a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point.  The

new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and

it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical

phase.



The initial motion is now 045/18.  Michael will accelerate toward

the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in

the mid-latitude westerlies.  The new track forecast track is near

the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the

previous forecast.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the

Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes

post-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and

advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in

these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.



Key Messages:



1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern

Virginia.



2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the

southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and

tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/0900Z 33.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 12H  11/1800Z 35.4N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 24H  12/0600Z 37.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 36H  12/1800Z 40.9N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  13/0600Z 44.1N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  14/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  15/0600Z 49.0N   9.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-11 09:34

WTNT34 KNHC 110848

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...

...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH

CAROLINA COASTS...





SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...33.5N 82.5W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued for the Gulf coast of

Florida.



The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Georgia and

Florida coast south of Altamaha Sound.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. Michael is

moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is

expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through

tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster

forward speed are expected on Friday.  On the forecast track, the

center of Michael will move through eastern Georgia into central

South Carolina this morning, then moves across portions of central

and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into the

Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Some additional weakening is expected today while

the center remains over land.  However, Michael is forecast to

intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late

tonight or early Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)

mainly to the southeast of the center.  Louisville, Georgia recently

reported a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h), and there are several

reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in the Augusta area.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations

is 983 mb (29.03 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are receding along the Gulf Coast of

Florida.  Along the southeast coast of the United States, the

combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential

to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at

the time of high tide...



Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

eastern and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions

of central and southern South Carolina this morning.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this

morning through Friday.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the

Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.



RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic

states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and

coastal southern New England.  Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches

are possible in North Carolina and Virginia.  This rainfall could

lead to life-threatening flash floods.



TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of

eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and

southeast Virginia.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-11 09:34

WTNT24 KNHC 110848

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF

FLORIDA.



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE GEORGIA AND

FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  82.5W AT 11/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  18 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.

34 KT....... 50NE 140SE  50SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N  82.5W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND

AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  83.2W...INLAND



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.4N  79.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 140SE  30SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.9N  74.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.9N  65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.1N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 150SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 49.0N   9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N  82.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-11 06:36

WTNT34 KNHC 110546

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 18A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH

CAROLINA COASTS...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.7N 83.2W

ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.7 North,

longitude 83.2 West.  Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20

mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue this morning.

A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected

later today through Friday night.  On the forecast track, the core

of Michael will move across central and eastern Georgia this

morning, and then over southern and central South Carolina later

today.  Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern

United States and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early

Friday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the

southeastern United States, but it is forecast to re-strengthen some

when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a

post-tropical cyclone on Friday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).

During the last few hours, Eastman, Georgia reported a wind gust of

63 mph (102 km/h), McRae, Georgia reported a wind gust of 59 mph

(95 km/h), and Sapelo Island, Georgia reported a wind gust of 45

mph (72 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Warner-Robins Air Force Base near Macon recently reported a

pressure of 980.9 mb (28.97 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are beginning to recede in some

locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge

and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the

coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the

shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following

heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high

tide...



Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of

central and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions

of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this

morning through Friday.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the

Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or Friday.



RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts into Friday...



Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with

isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to

life-threatening flash floods.



Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the tropical

storm moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New

England coast...1 to 3 inches.



TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes remain possible today from Georgia

into the Carolinas.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-11 04:35

WTNT64 KNHC 110400

TCUAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018



...12 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...MICHAEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND...



NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that the center of Michael

is now moving into south-central Georgia.  Tropical storm-force

winds continue over central and southern Georgia, and are spreading

across the coast of southeastern Georgia.



This will be the last hourly position update issued by the National

Hurricane Center on Michael.  The next intermediate advisory will be

issued at 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC.





SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.3N 83.6W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-11 03:38

WTNT44 KNHC 110300

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael

has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it

moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85

kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the

eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the

low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely

making it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due

to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the

trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the

cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below

tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the

Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is

forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and

Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is

expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low

pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.



The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to

accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper

mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal

system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn

east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the

north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered

about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were

made.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the

Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes

post-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and

advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in

these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the

Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge

is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,

where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.



2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern

Virginia.



3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast

U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and

tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  11/0300Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  11/1200Z 34.0N  81.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  12/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 36H  12/1200Z 39.3N  70.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 48H  13/0000Z 42.4N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  14/0000Z 47.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  15/0000Z 49.7N  13.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-11 03:38

WTNT34 KNHC 110256

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...MICHAEL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...STORM FLOODING GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...32.1N 83.8W

ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf coast of Florida has been

discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west

of Panama City and southeast of Keaton Beach.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.1 North,

longitude 83.8 West.  Michael is moving toward the northeast near

20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue tonight. A

motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on

Thursday through Friday night.  On the forecast track, the core of

Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia overnight,

and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will

then move northeastward across the southeastern United States

through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by

early Friday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the

southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a

tropical storm by Thursday morning.  Michael is forecast to

re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the

east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone

on Friday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

(260 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are beginning to recede in some

locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge

and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the

coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the

shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following

heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high

tide...



Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over

portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and

southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over

south-central Georgia tonight.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight

through Friday.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the

Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.



RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts into Friday...



Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with

isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to

life-threatening flash floods.



Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the hurricane

moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1 to 3 inches.



TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes remain possible tonight and Thursday

morning from Georgia into the Carolinas.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday

morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-11 03:38

WTNT24 KNHC 110253

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN

DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF

PANAMA CITY AND SOUTHEAST OF KEATON BEACH.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO KEATON BEACH FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.

FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT

HURRICANES.GOV.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  83.8W AT 11/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  17 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

34 KT....... 60NE 140SE  60SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS..  0NE 210SE 240SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N  83.8W AT 11/0300Z

AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  84.5W



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N  81.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 130SE  50SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 160SE  40SW  30NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N  70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.4N  60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.9N  35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 150SE 150SW   0NW.

34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 49.7N  13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N  83.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-11 03:05

WTNT64 KNHC 110200

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...CENTER OF MICHAEL NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND...

...STORM SURGE LEVELS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE GULF COAST...



NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that the center of Michael

is now moving into south-central Georgia.  Winds are continuing to

decease across the Florida panhandle.



Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the

Florida Panhandle tonight.  A National Ocean Service water level

station at Apalachicola is now indicating about 2 feet of inundation

above ground level.





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.9N 84.1W

ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-11 03:05

WTNT64 KNHC 110100

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

900 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...9 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND...

...STORM SURGE LEVELS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE GULF COAST...



NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Michael is

continuing to move over southwestern Georgia. Winds are gradually

deceasing over the Florida panhandle, but they are beginning to

increase along the Georgia coast.



Recent wind reports include:



Weatherflow site Jekyll Island Georgia: 61 mph (98 km/h)

Macon Georgia airport: wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h)



Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the

Florida Panhandle tonight.  A National Ocean Service water level

station at Apalachicola is now reporting less than 3 feet of

inundation above ground level.





SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.7N 84.4W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-11 00:37

WTNT34 KNHC 102357

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 17A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...STORM FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.5N 84.5W

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael

was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.5 North,

longitude 84.5 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 17

mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A

motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on

Thursday through Friday night.  On the forecast track, the core of

Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia tonight,

and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will

then move northeastward across the southeastern United States

through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by

early Friday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the

southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a

tropical storm by Thursday morning.  Michael is forecast to

re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the

east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone

on Friday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160

miles (260 km).  A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to

74 mph (119 km/h) were recently measured at the Albany Georgia

airport. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at

the airport in Tallahassee, Florida.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are beginning to recede in some

locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge

and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the

coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the

shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following

heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high

tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...4-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft

Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3-5 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A

National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently

reported over 3 feet of inundation above ground level.



WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over

portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and

southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over

south-central Georgia tonight.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight

through Friday.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of

southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the

Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the

Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to

6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1 to 3 inches.



TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from

northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday

morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-10 23:41

WTNT64 KNHC 102301

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...7 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST AND DAMAGING WINDS

INLAND CONTINUE...



NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now

moving over southwestern Georgia.



Recently reported wind gusts include:



Albany Georgia airport: 67 mph (107 km/h)

Tallahassee International Airport: 61 mph (98 km/h)

Dothan Alabama airport: 60 mph (96 km/h)



Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle.  A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola is still reporting nearly 5 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.1N 84.9W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF ALBANY GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-10 22:38

WTNT64 KNHC 102159

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

600 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...6 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE...



NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now

moving over Seminole County in extreme southwestern Georgia.

Everyone in this county should not venture out into the relative

calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as

the eye passes!



Recently reported wind gusts include:



Tallahassee International Airport: 64 mph (104 km/h)

Dothan Alabama airport: 62 mph (100 km/h)

University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 58 mph (93 km/h)

Albany Georgia airport: 51 mph (81 km/h)



Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle.  A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola is still reporting nearly 5 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.1N 84.9W

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA

ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.56 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-10 21:38

WTNT44 KNHC 102054

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



Data from an Air Force Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and

NWS WSR-88D radar data showed that Michael continued to strengthen

until it made landfall around 1730 UTC (12:30 PM CDT) along the

coast of the Florida Panhandle between Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air

Force Base. The aircraft found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of

152 kt during its final pass through southeast eyewall just before

Michael made landfall. There were SFMR measurements of 132-138 kt,

but the validity of those observations are questionable since they

occurred in shallow water and were flagged. The landfall intensity

was estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest

hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew

(1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb,

which is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States.  A

University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum

pressure of 920.2 mb.



Now that the entire eyewall has moved over land, the Doppler radar

velocities have decreased and the initial intensity has been lowered

to 110 kt.  Although steady weakening is expected as Michael moves

over the southeast U.S. through Thursday morning, hurricane-force

winds will continue to penetrate inland over the Florida Panhandle,

southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia through this evening.

The circulation is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic

Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as an extratropical

cyclone is expected. The extratropical low is expected to remain

quite strong while to moves over the north Atlantic through the

weekend.  The low is expected to be absorbed by another low pressure

area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.



Michael is moving northeastward of 030/14 kt, and the hurricane

should continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded

within the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone should

turn east-northeastward and further accelerate as it moves over the

north Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, but

has trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been

adjusted accordingly.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the

Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes

post-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and

advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in

these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the

Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge

is expected to continue between Tyndall Air Force Base and Aucilla

River, where 5 to 10 feet of inundation is still ongoing.



2. Michael will continue to produce life-threatening hurricane-force

winds well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,

southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia this evening as the core

of the hurricane continues to move inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions southeast Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast

Virginia.



4. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast

U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and

tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  85.1W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND

 12H  11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

 24H  11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 36H  12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER

 48H  12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  14/1800Z 49.2N  19.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 21:38

WTNT34 KNHC 102054

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND

SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.9N 85.1W

ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Hurricane Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has

been discontinued.



The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been

discontinued south of the Suwanee River.



The Storm Surge Watch south of Anclote River has been discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is

moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn

toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion

toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on

Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of

Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern

Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward

across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and

then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States

on late Thursday night and Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher

gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it

crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is

forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off

the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical

cyclone on Friday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles

(260 km).  A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported

at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida.  A sustained wind of 59 mph

(96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a

University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St.

George Island, Florida.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are beginning to recede in some

locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge

and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the

coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the

shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following

heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high

tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...5-10 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft

Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A

National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently

reported over 7 feet of inundation above ground level.



WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over

portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and

southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over

south-central Georgia tonight.



With the eye of Michael moving inland, residents are reminded to not

venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds

will increase very quickly as the eye passes!



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight

through Friday.



Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions southeastern

Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva

Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic

coast late Thursday night or Friday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to

6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1 to 3 inches.



TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from

northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday

morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 21:38

WTNT24 KNHC 102050

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS

BEEN DISCONTINUED.



THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN

DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.



THE STORM SURGE WATCH SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.

FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT

HURRICANES.GOV.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  85.1W AT 10/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  932 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.

12 FT SEAS..  0NE 210SE 240SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  85.1W AT 10/2100Z

AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  85.5W



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W...INLAND

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT... 70NE 130SE  60SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE 160SE  60SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE   0SE  90SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 140SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 200SE 180SW   0NW.

34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 49.2N  19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  85.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-10 20:34

WTNT64 KNHC 101953

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

300 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING I-10 IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...



Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now moving inland

over portions of Jackson County in the Florida Panhandle and is

nearing Interstate 10. Everyone in these areas is reminded not to

venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds

will increase very quickly as the eye passes!



Recently reported wind gusts include:



Marianna Florida airport: 102 mph (164 km/h)

University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 83 mph (134 km/h)

Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 80 mph (129 km/h)

Tallahassee International Airport: 71 mph (115 km/h)

Donalsonville Georgia: 67 mph (107 km/h)

Downtown Tallahassee: 63 mph (101 km/h)



Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola is still reporting over 7 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W

ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA

ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brennan



2018-10-10 19:35

WTNT64 KNHC 101854

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST

OF PANAMA CITY...

...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...



Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over

portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle.

Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the

relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very

quickly as the eye passes!



Recently reported wind gusts include:



Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)

Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)

University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)

Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h)

Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)



Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle.  A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.4N 85.3W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.22 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brennan



2018-10-10 19:35

WTNT34 KNHC 101836 CCA

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



Corrected pressure in inches in summary block and text



...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH

FLORIDA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...





SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W

ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the

Alabama/Florida border.



The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been

discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of

Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.



At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving

toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the

northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the

northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through

Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move

inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across

southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will

move northeastward across the southeastern United States through

Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from

the United States on Friday.



Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to

near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely

dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind

Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United

States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on

Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the

western Atlantic.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently

reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near

Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed.  A wind gust to

129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force

Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.14 inches).



A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University

of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft

Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above

ground level.



WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue

to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,

southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and

tonight.



With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the

landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm

of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye

passes!



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight

through Friday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day

or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida

Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.

This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern

South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 18:35

WTNT34 KNHC 101737

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH

FLORIDA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...





SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W

ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the

Alabama/Florida border.



The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been

discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of

Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.



At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving

toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the

northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward

the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday

through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael

will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and

across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight.

Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United

States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic

coast away from the United States on Friday.



Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to

near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely

dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind

Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United

States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on

Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the

western Atlantic.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently

reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near

Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed.  A wind gust to

129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force

Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches).



A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University

of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft

Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above

ground level.



WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue

to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,

southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and

tonight.



With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the

landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm

of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye

passes!



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight

through Friday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day

or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida

Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.

This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern

South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 17:37

WTNT64 KNHC 101652

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYEWALL OF MICHAEL COMING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA

PANHANDLE BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...

...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING

ONSHORE...



With the landfall of Michael's eye imminent, everyone in the

landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm

of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye

passes!



A weather station at the Gulf County Emergency Operations Center in

Port St. Joe recently reported a wind gust of 106 mph (171 km/h).

A Weatherflow station is St. Andrew Bay recently reported a

sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 mph (124

km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported sustained winds

of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).



Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.9N 85.7W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brown/Brennan



2018-10-10 16:39

WTNT64 KNHC 101554

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...CORE OF MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...



A private weather station on St. George Island, Florida, recently

reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and wind gust of 66

mph (106 km/h).  The Apalachicola airport recently reported

sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust of 76 mph (122

km/h).



Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported nearly 5.5 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.6N 85.8W

ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 16:39

WTNT64 KNHC 101528

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...



Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph

(240 km/h) with higher gusts.  The aircraft also reported that the

minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).



The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph

(101 km/h).



Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 15:37

WTNT44 KNHC 101450

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared

satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and

become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area

of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane

Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall

this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS

WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The

hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which

additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery

suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could

slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening

is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael

will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida

Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the

circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due

to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its

transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the

U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a

powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at

least day 4.



Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much

anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected

to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this

afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate

as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving

across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is

forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move

rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this

weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the

updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.



Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.

East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,

and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards

north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be

post-tropical when it affects those areas.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the

Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge

is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base

and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.



2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage

where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the

Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and

Panama City.



3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland

across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and

southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland

later today and this evening.



4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.



5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast

U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and

tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/1500Z 29.4N  86.0W  125 KT 145 MPH

 12H  11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

 24H  11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 36H  12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 48H  12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 72H  13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 15:37

WTNT34 KNHC 101450

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE

COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL IMMINENT...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North

Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle

Sounds.



A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina

from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck.



The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/

Alabama border has been discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving

toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the

northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight.  A motion toward

the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday

through Friday night.  On the forecast track, the core of Michael is

expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this

afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States

tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away

from the United States on Friday.



Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)

with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4

hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some

strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall,

Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.

Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and

strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western

Atlantic.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).  A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida,

recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust

to 61 mph (98 km/h).  A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently

reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida.



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the

reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft

Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to

Duck...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading

onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas.

Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of

the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

later today and tonight.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight

through Friday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day

or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida

Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.

This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern

South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 15:37

WTNT24 KNHC 101449

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH

CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE

SOUNDS.



A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA

FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO DUCK.



THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/

ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY

* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.

FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT

HURRICANES.GOV.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  86.0W AT 10/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  928 MB

EYE DIAMETER  15 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......150NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 210SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  86.0W AT 10/1500Z

AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  86.3W



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W...INLAND

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE 140SE  60SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 240SE 180SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT...  0NE 210SE 180SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 360SE 270SW  90NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N  86.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-10 14:37

WTNT64 KNHC 101355

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...



A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported

a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95

km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58

mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently

reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph

(77 km/h).



Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida

Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at

Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above

ground level.





SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brennan



2018-10-10 13:35

WTNT64 KNHC 101252

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

800 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...8 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...WATER LEVELS QUICKLY RISING AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...



A National Ocean Service station at Apalachicola recently reported

a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85

km/h).





SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.1N 86.2W

ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brennan



2018-10-10 12:34

WTNT34 KNHC 101145

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL IMMINENT...





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving

toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-

northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the

northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the

northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and

Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to

move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move

northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and

Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the

United States on Friday.



Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph

(230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous

category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After

landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern

United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185

miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently

reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force

Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft

Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the

U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions

spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning

area.  Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across

portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and

southwestern Georgia later today and tonight.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,

and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday

night.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the

eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day

or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the

Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this

afternoon.  This risk will spread into parts of central and southern

Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 11:38

WTNT64 KNHC 101059

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

600 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...6 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE...



NOAA buoy 42039, located about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest

of Panama City, Florida, recently reported sustained winds

of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).  A wind

gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola

Regional Airport.





SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.8N 86.3W

ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-10 10:34

WTNT64 KNHC 100956

TCUAT4



Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...5 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

...RAINBANDS OF MICHAEL SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...



The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force

Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data has fallen to 937 mb

(27.67 inches).  NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds

of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h).





SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.6N 86.4W

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-10 09:34

WTNT44 KNHC 100854

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past

several hours.  The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been

136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped

Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range.  In

addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb.  Based on

on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.

This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,

SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus.  The cirrus outflow

associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,

with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast

and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.



The initial motion is 360/11.  Michael is embedded in the flow

between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic

and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough

across the central United States.  These features should cause the

hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,

followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase

in forward speed.  Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or

its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for

the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h

point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern

United States between 12-48 h.  The forecast guidance remains

tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the

previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.



Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael

remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate

vertical shear.  After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily

weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.  Extratropical

transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and

this should be complete just after the 48 h point.  The cyclone

should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly

northeastward over the north Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast

has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current

trends.  Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane

warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should

be rushed to completion.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where

a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is

expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to

13 feet of inundation is possible.



2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind

damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida

Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should

prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds.  Dangerous hurricane-

force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as

Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.



4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the

southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,

and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these

areas.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0900Z 28.3N  86.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

 12H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.7W  125 KT 145 MPH

 24H  11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

 36H  11/1800Z 34.4N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 48H  12/0600Z 36.8N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

 72H  13/0600Z 43.5N  59.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  14/0600Z 49.5N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  15/0600Z 52.0N  17.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-10 09:34

WTNT34 KNHC 100848

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS

FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W

ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River,

South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.



The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the

Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is

a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next

12 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the

next 12 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving

toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-

northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast

expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at

a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the

forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over

the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the

southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off

the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.



Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220

km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category

4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some

additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After

landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern

United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles

(295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently

reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of

63 mph (101 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter

aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft

Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm

conditions expected to begin during the next few hours.  Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area during the next several hours, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are

possible within the hurricane watch area today.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within

the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,

and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday

night.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the

eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of

the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next

day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the

Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this

afternoon.  This risk will spread into parts of central and southern

Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Hourly position estimates will begin at 500 AM CDT.

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-10 09:34

WTNT24 KNHC 100847

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE

RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.



THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE

OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION

OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM

SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS

A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS

SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM

RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL

OFFICIALS.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT

24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING

THE NEXT 12 HOURS.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  86.5W AT 10/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......160NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  86.5W AT 10/0900Z

AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  86.6W



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N  85.7W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  80SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W...INLAND

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE 140SE  90SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.4N  80.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.8N  75.6W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 140SE  50SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.5N  59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.5N  36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 52.0N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N  86.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-10 06:36

WTNT34 KNHC 100555

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018



...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W

ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South

Carolina



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is

a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next

24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the

next 12 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward motion

is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later

today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael

will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning.  The

center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the

Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move

northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight

and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the

United States on Friday.



Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph

(210 km/h) with higher gusts.  Michael is now a category 4 hurricane

on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional

strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the

Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area.  Weakening is

expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern

United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).



The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane

Hunter data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft

Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm

conditions expected during the next several hours.  Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch

area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the

hurricane watch area today.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along

the southeast U.S. coast later today, and possible in the watch

area by tonight.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the

eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of

the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next

day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase today into over

parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and

southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-10 03:33

WTNT44 KNHC 100252

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this

afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a

rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a

decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those

pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye

has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared

satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures

colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops

in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive

for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by

the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR

surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as

the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a

central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased

to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along

with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an

intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would

support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has

not measured thus far.



The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is

essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no

significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The

models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for

Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next

24 hours between a  substantial ridge to the east and a highly

amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and

central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous

hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and

make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by

late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly

flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to

accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the

cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and

Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A

continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is

forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical

cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of

the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed

consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA.



Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael

is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until

landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the

hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with

the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less

hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's

forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to

become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After

landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over

the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to

re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing

after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,

HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.



Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane

warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be

rushed to completion.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where

a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is

expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet

of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of

the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning

area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.



2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf

Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds

associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also

extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,

southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.



4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the

southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,

and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these

areas.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0300Z 27.1N  86.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z 28.7N  86.2W  115 KT 130 MPH

 24H  11/0000Z 30.8N  84.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND

 36H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 48H  12/0000Z 35.2N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 72H  13/0000Z 40.8N  65.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  14/0000Z 47.2N  44.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  15/0000Z 51.2N  24.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-10 00:34

WTNT34 KNHC 092344

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.6N 86.5W

ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next

24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.mb       (millibars)



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving

toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward motion is

expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on

Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael

will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The

center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the

Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then

move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday

night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from

the United States on Friday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher

gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Strengthening is expected overnight and on

Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to be near category 4 strength

when it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big

Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves

across the southeastern United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force

Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft

Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are

possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along

the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch

area by late Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the

eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of

the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next

day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into

Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida

Peninsula, and southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-09 21:33

WTNT44 KNHC 092055

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and

infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a

little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has

continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of

the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air

Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb

flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited

the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane

Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and

reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a

minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours.

Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of

115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial

intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.



The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive

for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours.  There

may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears

the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant

decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue

to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that

some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity

forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with

the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening

should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United

States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the

western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a

front and becomes extratropical on Friday.



Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about

10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then

northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central

United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies

in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east-

northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over

the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model

guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast.

Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday

afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern

Gulf Coast tonight.



Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward

along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North

Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be

issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North

Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects

those areas.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where

a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is

expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet

of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of

the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning

area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.



2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf

Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds

associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also

extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,

southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.



4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the

southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,

and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these

areas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/2100Z 26.0N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 12H  10/0600Z 27.6N  86.6W  110 KT 125 MPH

 24H  10/1800Z 29.7N  85.9W  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  11/0600Z 31.8N  84.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

 48H  11/1800Z 33.9N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 72H  12/1800Z 39.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  13/1800Z 45.5N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  14/1800Z 50.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-09 21:33

WTNT34 KNHC 092054

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W

ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Fernandina Beach

Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.



A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from South Santee River South

Carolina to Duck North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle

Sounds.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next

24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion

is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on

Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.

The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the

Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then

move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday

night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from

the United States on Friday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)

with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening

is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at

landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as

Michael moves through the southeastern United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of

63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air

Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft

Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are

possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along

the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch

area by late Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of

southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening

flash floods.



The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3

to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the

eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of

the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next

day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into

Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida

Peninsula, and southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-09 21:33

WTNT24 KNHC 092054

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH

FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH

CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE

SOUNDS.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION

OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM

SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS

IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS

SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM

RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL

OFFICIALS.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT

24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  86.4W AT 09/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT.......150NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N  86.4W AT 09/2100Z

AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  86.4W



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N  86.6W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.7N  85.9W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.8N  84.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT... 90NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.9N  81.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE 140SE  40SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.

34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.5N  51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 50.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N  86.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-09 18:33

WTNT34 KNHC 091741

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.4N 86.4W

ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next

24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the

next 12 to 24 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving

toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward motion is

expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on

Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.

The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the

Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then

move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday

night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from

the United States by Friday.



Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with

higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is

forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening

is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern

United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185

miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean

winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft

is 965 mb (28.50 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft

Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are

possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the

southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern

Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the

eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of

the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next

day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into

Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida

Peninsula, and southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-09 15:33

WTNT44 KNHC 091443

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



Michael has continued to become better organized this morning.  The

hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more

apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery.  Data from both

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show

that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend

of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of

95 kt for this advisory.  With two aircraft in the storm, they have

been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times

this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind

field.  The planes actually passed through the eye around the same

time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one

another.



The outflow pattern has become better established over the

hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly

shear.  The shear should continue to decrease, and further

strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday.  Michael is

expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a

dangerous major hurricane through landfall.  Significant weakening

should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United

States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected

when the system moves over the western Atlantic.



Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.

The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several

advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early

Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer

trough over the central United States.  As the trough moves eastward

it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday.  The

hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it

becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance

is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some

differences in forward speed thereafter.  The GFS and ECMWF have

trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been

adjusted accordingly.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a

storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will

rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within

the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect

life and property today.



2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf

Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds

associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also

extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,

southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia and South Carolina.



4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/1500Z 25.0N  86.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 26.7N  86.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

 24H  10/1200Z 28.8N  86.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

 36H  11/0000Z 30.8N  85.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND

 48H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 72H  12/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 96H  13/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  14/1200Z 50.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-09 15:33

WTNT34 KNHC 091442

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL

STRENGTHENING...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.0N 86.2W

ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Hurricane Watch for the coast of Alabama has been discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 86.2 West. Michael is moving

toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward motion is

expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on

Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.

The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the

Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then

move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday

night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from

the United States by Friday.



Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft

indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near

110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is

expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at

landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael

moves through the southeastern United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles

(295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of

45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).



The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft

is 965 mb (28.50 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft

Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are

possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the

southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern

Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the

eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of

the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next

day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf

and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local

weather office.



TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into

Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida

Peninsula, and southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-09 15:33

WTNT24 KNHC 091442

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION

OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM

SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS

IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS

SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM

RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL

OFFICIALS.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-

FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  86.2W AT 09/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB

EYE DIAMETER  25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT.......160NE 130SE  60SW 140NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 300NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  86.2W AT 09/1500Z

AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  86.1W



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N  86.5W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...160NE 130SE  70SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.8N  86.3W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N  85.1W...INLAND

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  30SE  20SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 70NE 140SE  60SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 180SE  90SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 50.0N  38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  86.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-09 12:32

WTNT34 KNHC 091147

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY

RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W

ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

has been discontinued.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located

near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 86.1 West. Michael is moving

toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-

northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight,

followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On

the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is

expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big

Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the

southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.



Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with

higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is

forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening

is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern

United States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195

miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean

winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).



The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft is

968 mb (28.58 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane

warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane

conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.



Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are

possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the

southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern

Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are beginning to affect the

coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells

will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of

Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.



TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into

Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida

Peninsula, and southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-09 09:34

WTNT44 KNHC 090857

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few

hours ago indicate that Michael's strengthening has paused, with

the maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb.

The aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less

organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear.

The latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming

better defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the

hurricane to provide better information on whether intensification

has resumed.



The initial motion is now 345/10.  There is little change in either

the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael

expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of

the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over

the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should

steer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24

h or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves

into the westerlies.  Only minor tweaks have been made to the

previous forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in

the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United

States Wednesday night and Thursday.



The large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear

later today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further

before landfall.  The new intensity forecast follows the previous

forecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall.

The cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the

southeastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the

western Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between

72-96 h.



It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm

surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,

intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still

uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge

forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible

scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of

Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along

portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the

storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for

parts of this area.



The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic

surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from

that mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models

runs.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a

storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these

areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.



2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida

Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for

life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.

Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as

Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia and South Carolina.



4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western

Cuba for a few more hours.



5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0900Z 24.1N  85.9W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.4W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.6W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  11/0600Z 32.3N  83.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 72H  12/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER

 96H  13/0600Z 42.5N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  14/0600Z 49.0N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-09 09:34

WTNT34 KNHC 090857

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...MICHAEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF

OF MEXICO...

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN

GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.1N 85.9W

ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern

coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South

Santee River, South Carolina.



The Government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the

province of Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning and has

discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

* Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 85.9 West. Michael is

moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A

north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight,

followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.  On

the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over

the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight.  The center of

Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or

Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward

across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a

major hurricane at landfall in Florida.  Weakening is expected

after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United

States.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles

(315 km).  NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of

40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Tropical storm conditions conditions will continue over

portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the

next few hours.



Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning

area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Tropical storm

conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by

tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical

storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are possible

within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern

Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England

coast...1-3 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.



TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into

Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida

Peninsula, and southern Georgia.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-09 09:34

WTNT24 KNHC 090856

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH

SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.



THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE

PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HAS

DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION

OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM

SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS

IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS

SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM

RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL

OFFICIALS.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-

FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  85.9W AT 09/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT.......170NE 130SE  70SW 140NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 240NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  85.9W AT 09/0900Z

AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  85.7W



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N  86.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...170NE 130SE  80SW 140NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N  86.4W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N  85.6W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.3N  83.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT... 80NE 140SE  80SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 140SE  90SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 42.5N  60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.0N  40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N  85.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-10-09 06:33

WTNT34 KNHC 090551

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018



...MICHAEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS...

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN

GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.6N 85.7W

ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located by and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near

latitude 23.6 North, longitude 85.7 West.  Michael is moving

toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward to

north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is

expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on

Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later

today and tonight.  The center of Michael is expected to move inland

over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,

and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States

Wednesday night and Thursday.



Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum

sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.

Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day

or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by

Tuesday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).



The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane

Hunter aircraft data is 973 mb (28.73 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far

western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba through tonight.



Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning

area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Tropical storm

conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by

tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical

storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are possible

within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South

Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the

Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-09 03:35

WTNT44 KNHC 090257

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft this

evening indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen...despite

westerly vertical shear of about 20 kt, which is most unusual. The

maximum 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by NOAA so far has

been 102 kt and maximum SFMR surface wind speed was 78 kt. The

central pressure measured by the two aircraft has been fluctuating

between 970 mb and 974 mb, which is likely due to small mesovortices

rotating around inside the fairly large 35-nmi-wide eye. Given the

aforementioned wind data and the possibility of locally enhanced

winds due to the mesovortices, the initial intensity has only been

increased to 80 kt rather than 85 kt, which the NOAA flight-level

wind data would typically support.



The initial motion estimate is 350/11 kt. The steering flow pattern

isn't forecast to change much, if at all, for the next 36-48 hours,

with Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge

centered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude

mid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico.

The combined deep-layer southerly flow should keep the hurricane

moving northward to north-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so.

Shortly thereafter and just prior to landfall, the approaching

mid-latitude trough is expected to turn Michael toward the

north-northeast or northeast.  By 48 hours and beyond, significant

acceleration toward the northeast ahead of the trough is forecast to

continue through the 120-h period, with Michael emerging off of the

U.S. mid-Atlantic coast around 96 hours. The new NHC forecast track

was nudged slightly to the east of the previous track through 36 h,

based on the more eastward initial position and a forward motion

that is still to the right or east of short term motion in the model

guidance, but is still near the consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and

NOAA-HCCA. By 48 hours and beyond, the official track is close to

the previous advisory track.



Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face

of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear

calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more

inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,

making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model

guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by

36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during

that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of

28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of

the year. Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-

to 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of

20-30 kt. Re-strengthening as an extratropical low over water on

days 4 and 5 is forecast due to baroclinic interaction with a

frontal system and the cyclone being back over warm Atlantic waters.

The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the

consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and is similar to the previous

advisory and the FSSE model.



It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm

surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,

intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still

uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge

forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible

scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of

Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along

portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the

storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for

parts of this area.



The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic

surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from

that mission will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models

runs.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a

storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these

areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.



2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida

Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for

life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.

Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as

Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia and South Carolina.



4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba

through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.



5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0300Z 23.2N  85.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z 26.8N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  85.9W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  11/0000Z 31.4N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

 72H  12/0000Z 35.9N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 96H  13/0000Z 41.5N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  14/0000Z 47.8N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-09 03:35

WTNT34 KNHC 090255

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN

GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W

ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA

ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm

Warning for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside

the United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane

Michael was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance

aircraft near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.3 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward to

north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is

expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion

on Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and

Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over

the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and

then move northeastward across the southeastern United States

Wednesday night and Thursday.



Reports from the two reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher

gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next

day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by

Tuesday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).



The minimum central pressure recently measured by the two aircraft

was 970 mb (28.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far

western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.



Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning

area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by

Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions

are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South

Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the

Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-09 03:35

WTNT24 KNHC 090254

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO



A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION

OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM

SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS

IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS

SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM

RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL

OFFICIALS.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-

FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT

OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE

RUSHED TO COMPLETION.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  85.3W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT.......150NE 150SE  80SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  90SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  85.3W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  85.2W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N  85.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N  86.3W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N  85.9W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N  84.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE 140SE  80SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.9N  77.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 70NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.5N  63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 47.8N  46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N  85.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-09 00:32

WTNT34 KNHC 082355

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN

GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 85.2W

ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside

the United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael

was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7

North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near

12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a

slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,

followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.  On

the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the

southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of

Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or

Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward

across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.



Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day

or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by

Tuesday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).



The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA

Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 970 mb (28.64 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far

western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.



Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning

area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by

Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions

are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...

4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the

Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-08 21:33

WTNT44 KNHC 082041

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was

in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the

hurricane was deepening.  The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on

the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the

northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of

land.  The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a

blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued

deepening that was observed.



The upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it

is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm.

There has been no significant change to the intensity forecast

thinking.  The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is

not expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the

warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Although the statistical

guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and

global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC

forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP

corrected consensus model.



Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as

it moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a

long-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast

to move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge

over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United

States. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to

turn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then

accelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly

flow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the

track and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The

updated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours

to be closer to the latest consensus aids.



It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm

surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,

intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still

uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge

forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible

scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of

Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along

portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the

storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for

parts of this area.



The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission

over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be

assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.



Key Messages:



1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a

storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these

areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.



2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida

Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for

life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.

Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as

Michael moves inland.



3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia and South Carolina.



4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba

through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.



5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/2100Z 22.2N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST

 72H  11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 96H  12/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  13/1800Z 46.2N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-08 21:33

WTNT34 KNHC 082041

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...MICHAEL BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO

WESTERN CUBA...

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN

GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida

from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Anclote River.



The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Navarre Florida to

the Alabama/Florida border.



A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida

from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Suwannee River.



A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border

westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.



A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida

border westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from Suwannee

River Florida southward to Chassahowitzka Florida.



A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama

border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including

Tampa Bay

* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River



A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction

of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a

life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas

should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from

rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to

north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is

expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion

on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening,

then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday

night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the

Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then

move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday

night and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)

with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during

the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major

hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was reported at an

observing site in Isabel Rubio in the Cuban province of Pinar del

Rio earlier this afternoon.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft

Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the

far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.



Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning

area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by

Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the

tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions

are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Friday...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...

4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This

rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the

Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4

inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods.



Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-08 21:33

WTNT24 KNHC 082039

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA

FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO ANCLOTE RIVER.



THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO

THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.



A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA

FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER.



A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AND FROM SUWANNEE

RIVER FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA

BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING

TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO



A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING

COZUMEL



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER



A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING

INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...

DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION

OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE

WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A

LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS

SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM

RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL

OFFICIALS.



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED

36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE

AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  85.2W AT 08/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.

50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.

34 KT.......120NE 150SE  80SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE  60SW 240NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  85.2W AT 08/2100Z

AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  85.1W



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W...NEAR THE COAST

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...100NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 70NE 140SE  50SW  50NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 46.2N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N  85.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-08 18:32

WTNT34 KNHC 081740

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND

DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W

ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside

the United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to

north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is

expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion

on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of

Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next

couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by

tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday

and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida

Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move

northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night

and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day

or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by

Tuesday or Tuesday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175

miles (280 km).



The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass FL to Crystal River FL...8-12 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft

Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Navarre FL to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part

of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.



Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area

by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through the weekend...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8

inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic

States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with

local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-

threatening flash floods.



Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-08 15:34

WTNT44 KNHC 081438

TCDAT4



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018



The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve

overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an

area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible

imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave

overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.  The

aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most

recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level

winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this

advisory.



Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western

portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that

direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a

little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of

the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Now that Michael has developed an

inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the

next 24 to 36 hours.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and

DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during

the next 24 hours.  The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end

of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24

hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status.  After

that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of

intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly

shear.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track

keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast

U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm

through 72 hours.  The system should become a powerful extratropical

low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.



Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving

a little east of due north.  The hurricane should move northward or

north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm

crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  By 48 hours, Michael should

turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central

United States.  The cross-track spread in the guidance has

decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in

how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico.  The HWRF

and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still

much slower.  The NHC track is along the eastern side of the

guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,

and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The

post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based

on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.



Key Messages:



1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it

reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-

threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida

Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.

Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow

any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane

warnings will likely be issued later today.



2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.



3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba

this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan

Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.



4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/1500Z 21.2N  84.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  09/0000Z 22.6N  85.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  09/1200Z 24.4N  85.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  10/0000Z 26.4N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  10/1200Z 28.6N  86.1W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

 96H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  13/1200Z 42.8N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-08 15:34

WTNT34 KNHC 081438

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING

EXPECTED...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...

...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND

DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...





SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside

the United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was

located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at

a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,

followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the

forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the

western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of

Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of

Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland

over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,

and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States

Wednesday night and Thursday.



Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate

that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120

km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast

during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major

hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles

(280 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft

Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part

of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the

warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.



Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area

by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through the weekend...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8

inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall

could lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic

States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with

local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-

threatening flash floods.



Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.



SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of

Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are

expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern

Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely

to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-08 15:34

WTNT24 KNHC 081437

TCMAT4



HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING

COZUMEL



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA

BAY



A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT

HURRICANES.GOV.



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  84.9W AT 08/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT.......120NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE  60SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  84.9W AT 08/1500Z

AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  85.1W



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N  85.3W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N  85.9W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N  86.4W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N  86.1W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE 140SE  60SW  50NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N  73.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 42.8N  59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  84.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-08 12:33

WTNT34 KNHC 081156

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed

to completion.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West.  Michael is

moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northward motion

at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday

night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and

Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move

northward across the Yucatan Channel today, and then across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday.  Michael is

expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big

Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the

southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is

expected to become a hurricane later today.  Michael is forecast to

be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the

northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.



The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force

reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft

Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part

of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today.  Tropical storm

conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas

in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.



Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area

by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Wednesday night...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8

inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall

may lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.



Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-08 09:32

WTNT44 KNHC 080858

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep

convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and

upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western

semicircle.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made

several passes through the system during the past few hours, and

somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen

to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt.

This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which

has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly

intensified during the past 24 hours.



With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official

intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.

Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures

are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the

favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of

the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model.  This new official forecast

brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48

hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time

between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael

will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall.  Weakening is

expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain

tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east

coast of the United States.  Michael should then become an

extratropical low by day 5.



The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving

northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt.  A general northward motion with

some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours

as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the

western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and

central United States.  After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn

northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States,

exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5.  Nearly all

of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which

left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance

envelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also

been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids.  Overall the

track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along

the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a

fairly confident track forecast.





Key Messages:



1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba,

where a hurricane warning is now in effect.  Tropical storm

conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and

the Isle of Youth today.



2.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.



3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major

hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week,

and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for

portions of the area.  Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are

especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's

exact track or intensity.  Residents in the watch areas should

monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by

local officials.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0900Z 20.6N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  08/1800Z 21.7N  85.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  09/0600Z 23.5N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  09/1800Z 25.2N  86.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  10/0600Z 27.2N  86.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 72H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

 96H  12/0600Z 35.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

120H  13/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-08 09:32

WTNT34 KNHC 080856

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE...

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG

BEND...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the

province of Pinar del Rio.



A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna

Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.



A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border

eastward to the Suwanee River Florida.



A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to

Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm

Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the

Mississippi-Alabama border.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay



A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border



A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12

hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed

to completion.



A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.



A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near

latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Michael is moving toward

the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northward motion at a slightly

faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by

a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast

track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan

Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico

this evening through Wednesday.  Michael is expected to move inland

over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,

and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States

Wednesday night and Thursday.



Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is

expected to become a hurricane later today.  Michael is forecast to

be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the

northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.



The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03

inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge

occurs at the time of high tide...



Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft

Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft

Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft



WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part

of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today.  Tropical storm

conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas

in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.



Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area

along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm

conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area

by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts through Wednesday night...



Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12

inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides.



Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8

inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall

may lead to life threatening flash floods.



Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.



Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-08 09:32

WTNT24 KNHC 080855

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE

PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.



A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA

MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.



A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER

EASTWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO

ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE

MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING

COZUMEL



A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA

BAY



A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER



A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12

HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED

TO COMPLETION.



A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-

THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE

COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT

HURRICANES.GOV.



A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  85.5W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......120NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  85.5W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N  85.5W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N  85.6W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N  86.1W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.

50 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N  86.7W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N  86.7W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N  84.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.

34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 35.5N  77.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  85.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-08 06:34

WTNT34 KNHC 080543

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018



...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL...

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

the next 12 hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of Michael.  A hurricane watch will likely be

required for a portion of this area today.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near

latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Michael is moving toward

the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward motion with some

increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days.  On

the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan

Channel or extreme western Cuba today, cross the eastern Gulf of

Mexico later today through Tuesday night, and approach the United

States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,

and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on

Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is

994 mb (29.35 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning to spread

across portions of the Cuban coast within the warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are also very close to the coast of

Mexico within the warning area.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the

Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas

of mountainous terrain.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce

total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys

through Tuesday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-08 03:32

WTNT44 KNHC 080257

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



On the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve

reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of

60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since

that time, deep convection has developed in the same area where

those peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has

been increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is

scheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC.



The initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the

recon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast

rationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable

differences between the models that will ultimately determine where

and when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS,

ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western

side of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the

farthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA

corrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models

are close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model

track dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is

expected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until

landfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection,

associated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the

eastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward

the HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight

eastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this

advisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous

advisory track on days 3-5.



Michael's overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of

the convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to

about 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective

pattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over

the past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a

tightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center.

This better structure combined with very warm sea-surface

temperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual

strengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent

westerly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the

intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just

prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and

HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly

shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern

semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of

an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has

been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains

similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little

lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although

the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the

cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an

indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.



Key Messages:



1.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.



2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of

western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical

storm warnings are in effect.



3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the

northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm

surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In

addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf

Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of

the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas

should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice

given by local officials.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z 20.0N  85.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z 21.1N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z 22.7N  85.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 36H  09/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  10/0000Z 26.3N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 72H  11/0000Z 30.4N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND ERN FL PANHNDL

 96H  12/0000Z 34.9N  78.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

120H  13/0000Z 40.7N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-08 03:32

WTNT34 KNHC 080256

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W

ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

the next 12 hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of Michael.  A hurricane watch will likely be

required for a portion of this area on Monday.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is

moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward

motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move

over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then

across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night,

and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and

Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the

Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas

of mountainous terrain.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce

total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys

through Tuesday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-08 03:32

WTNT24 KNHC 080256

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING

COZUMEL



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN

THE NEXT 12 HOURS.



INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE

REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  85.4W AT 08/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   4 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......120NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  85.4W AT 08/0300Z

AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  85.4W



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N  85.3W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N  85.6W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N  86.1W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.4N  84.5W...INLAND ERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.9N  78.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 40.7N  64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  85.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-10-08 00:32

WTNT34 KNHC 072339

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.9N 85.4W

ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

the next 12 hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.4 West.  Michael is

moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A general northward

motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move

over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf

of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the

United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.



Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft

indicate along with satellite images indicate that maximum sustained

winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and

Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.



Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that

tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km)

to the northeast and southeast of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

Cuban coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight,

making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the

Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas

of mountainous terrain.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce

total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys

through Tuesday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-10-07 21:32

WTNT44 KNHC 072101

TCDAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern

semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance

aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,

closer to the convection.  The Air Force aircraft has measured peak

925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of

40-45 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been

increased to 45 kt.



Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a

highly uncertain 020/3 kt.  The overall forecast reasoning has not

changed much since the previous advisory.  Although there could be

some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical

storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the

western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central

United States.  A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then

expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,

Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.

The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,

however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)

differences remain.  The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern

Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has

Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted

eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward

initial position.  The latter portion of the track forecast is again

close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track

guidance spread.



Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear.  The

shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days

while the system moves over warm waters.  This should allow for

steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael

to hurricane strength within the next couple of days.  It should

also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the

storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb.  The new NHC

intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about

36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the

storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC

forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.



Key Messages:



1.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.



2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of

western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical

storm warnings are in effect.



3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the

northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm

surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In

addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf

Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of

the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas

should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice

given by local officials.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 19.2N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

120H  12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 21:32

WTNT34 KNHC 072100

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER...

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W

ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24

hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Michael is

moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A northward

motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next

few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move

over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf

of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach

the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.



Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that

maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the next

few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night

or Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)

primarily to the east of the center.



The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance

aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making

outside preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the

Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas

of mountainous terrain.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce

total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys

through Tuesday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 21:32

WTNT24 KNHC 072058

TCMAT4



TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING

COZUMEL



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN

24 HOURS.



INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  85.5W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT.......120NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  85.5W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  86.0W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 180SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT...120NE 150SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W...INLAND

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  85.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-07 18:33

WTNT34 KNHC 071743

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 4A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24

hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of Michael.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was

located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is

currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward

motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward

speed is expected over the next few days.  On the forecast track,

the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the

Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf

of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.



Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and

Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km)

mainly to the north and east of the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making

outside preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:  Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected

over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,

Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas

of mountainous terrain.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce

total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys

through Monday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 17:33

WTNT64 KNHC 071653

TCUAT4



Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...



Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened

into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be

40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane

Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.





SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 15:32

WTNT44 KNHC 071453

TCDAT4



Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to

become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation

may be somewhat elongated.  There is still evidence of westerly

shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main

convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over

the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon.  The depression

appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak

estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt.  An Air Force

Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the

system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment

of the intensity of the cyclone.  For now, the intensity is held at

a possibly conservative 30 kt.



The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is

forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an

upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and

weakens.  This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for

gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of

Mexico.  Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to

hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the

NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is

slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the

ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive

HWRF and HCCA models.



The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt.  The system is

forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days,

with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer

ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central

United Sates.  A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as

the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central

United States.  The dynamical models generally agree on the overall

scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In

fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of

Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that

time period.  The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance

envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that

are both on that side of the track spread.  After that time, the NHC

track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for

both the along and cross track spread of the guidance.





Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:



1.  The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and

flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern

Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.



2.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later

today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over

portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,

where tropical storm warnings are in effect.



3.  There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall,

and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by

mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and

magnitude of these impacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor

the progress of this system.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/1500Z 19.2N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  08/0000Z 20.0N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  08/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  09/0000Z 23.2N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

 48H  09/1200Z 24.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  10/1200Z 28.7N  86.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

 96H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

120H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 15:32

WTNT34 KNHC 071452

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD...

...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND

TONIGHT...





SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24

hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of the depression.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression

Fourteen was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West.

The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  This

general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected

over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center will move

near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning,

and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through

Wednesday morning.



Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the

depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.  The

system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making

outside preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:  Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected

over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,

Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  This rainfall

could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas

of mountainous terrain.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to

produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida

Keys through Monday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 15:32

WTNT24 KNHC 071452

TCMAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24

HOURS.



INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.9W AT 07/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  86.9W AT 07/1500Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  86.9W



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N  86.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N  86.8W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT...130NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N  87.2W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N  86.5W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N  73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N  86.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-10-07 12:33

WTNT34 KNHC 071150

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.9N 86.8W

ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24

hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of the depression.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen

was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 86.8 West.  The

depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h).  This

general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected

over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center will move

through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days,

and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later

today.  The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or

Wednesday.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making

outside preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:   Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected

over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,

Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A separate area

of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific

coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El

Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico.  In many of

these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash

floods.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to

produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida

Keys through Monday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT44 KNHC 070851

TCDAT4



Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that

the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan

Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep

convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level

center.  Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5

from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become

sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical

depression.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on

earlier ASCAT data.



The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the

depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is

north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt.  The

depression is expected to move generally northward during the next

3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow

between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing

deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States.  After

day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn

northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United

States.  While the track models agree on the general scenario,

there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model

being slower than the other guidance.  Also, the ECMWF and GFS

models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.

In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little

slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN

multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of

the forecast.



The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly

shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level

diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of

Mexico.  The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is

forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the

diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently

warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the

depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over

the Gulf of Mexico.  In fact, nearly every piece of intensity

guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches

land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all

show significant deepening of the central pressure.  The updated NHC

intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity

consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it

now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72

hours.





Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:



1.  The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over

western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during

the next couple of days.



2.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later

today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over

portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,

where tropical storm warnings are in effect.



3.  Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over

portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is

too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these

impacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of

this system.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0900Z 18.6N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH

 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

 72H  10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

120H  12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT44 KNHC 070235

TCDAT4



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018



The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures

are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is

a tropical cyclone at this time.  All indications are, however, that

a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind

shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model

only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global

models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this

system.  Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC

forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the

intensity consensus IVCN.  However, the forecast is highly uncertain

given the solution of the global models.



Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial

motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or

360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be

embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical

ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough

advancing eastward over the United States.  This flow pattern will

force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the

system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should

then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S.  The

track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases

the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone

forms.



Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:



1.  This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over

portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over

western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during

the next couple of days.



2.  The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late

Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of

western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.



3.  The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts

to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is

too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these

impacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of

this system.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0300Z 18.8N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  07/1200Z 19.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 24H  08/0000Z 21.0N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  08/1200Z 22.3N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  09/0000Z 23.8N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 72H  10/0000Z 27.4N  87.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  11/0000Z 32.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

120H  12/0000Z 38.5N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT44 KNHC 062050

TCDAT4



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018



Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the

circulation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean

Sea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection

is becoming better organized.  While the system is currently not

well enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current

indications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that

the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and

could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba

and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Based on the need for

warnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated

on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.



Although the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the

system should strengthen through the forecast period, the global

models indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the

Gulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h.  In addition, the

strongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is

likely to slow development.  Based on this, the intensity forecast

is in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then

shows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is

forecast to diminish.  The intensity forecast is closest to a blend

of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.



For the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally

northward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the

Caribbean Sea.  After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over

the central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the

western Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a

faster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over

the northern Gulf coast in about 96 h.  After landfall, the system

is likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The track

guidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario.  However,

it should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track

spread in the guidance at the 96-h point.  The forecast track lies

just to the west of the various consensus models.



Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:



1.  This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash

flooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the

northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of

days.  The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by

Sunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over

portions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in

effect.



2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to

portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too

soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts.

Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/2100Z 18.0N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE

 12H  07/0600Z 18.7N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH

 24H  07/1800Z 19.9N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 36H  08/0600Z 21.0N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  08/1800Z 22.5N  86.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  09/1800Z 26.0N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  10/1800Z 30.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  11/1800Z 35.5N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 070851

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...





SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.6N 86.9W

ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from

Tulum to Cabo Catoche to a Tropical Storm Warning.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24

hours.



Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should

monitor the progress of the depression.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen

was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 86.9 West.  The

depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).

A turn toward the north is expected later today, with that motion

at a faster forward speed continuing through early Wednesday.  On

the forecast track, the center will move through the Yucatan

Channel Monday morning and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico

late Monday through Wednesday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, with

the depression expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making

outside preparations difficult or dangerous.



RAINFALL:   Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected

over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,

Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated maximum

amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A separate area

of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific

coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El

Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico.  In many of

these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash

floods.



Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to

produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida

Keys through Monday.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 070537

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

100 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018



...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...





SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.4N 87.1W

ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36

hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Belize indicated that the

low pressure system was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude

87.1 West.  The low has been meandering just off the coast of the

Yucatan Peninsula during the past few hours, but its longer-term

motion is toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  The low is

expected to turn northward later today, with that motion continuing

for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the low or the

tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the

eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then

move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.



Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained

winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

The low is expected to become a tropical depression later today and

a tropical storm by tonight.  A reconnaissance plane will

investigate the system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area tonight and on Monday.



RAINFALL:  The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations

of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the

Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.

Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.

A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along

the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western

Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in

Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to

life-threatening flash floods.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Berg



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 070235

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018



...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE

NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY...

...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA...





SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.8N 86.6W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near

latitude 18.8 North, longitude 86.6 West.  The low is moving

northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected

for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the low or the

tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the

eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday night, and

then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the

system is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and

a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will

investigate the system on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.



RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan

peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated

maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A

separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along

the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western

Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in

Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to

life-threatening flash floods.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 062330

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018



...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...

...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...





SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W

ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



None.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the area of low pressure was centered near

latitude 18.3 North, longitude 86.6 West.  The system appears to be

moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is

expected for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the

low or the tropical cyclone should move near the eastern coast of

the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and

then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and

the system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight

or on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance

plane will investigate the system on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.



RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan

peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.  Isolated

maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.  A

separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along

the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western

Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in

Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to

life-threatening flash floods.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 062049

TCPAT4



BULLETIN

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018



...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA...

...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.0N 86.6W

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:



The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the

provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.



The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the

coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:



A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth



A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.



A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.



For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude

18.0 North, longitude 86.6 West.  The system is moving toward the

northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A motion toward the north is

expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track,

the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of

the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and

then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the

disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday

and a tropical storm on Sunday night.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the

coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Tropical storm conditions are

possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.



RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain

accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches

over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through

Tuesday.  Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in

western Cuba.  A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is

expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico,

including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state

of Chiapas in Mexico.  In many of these areas this rainfall could

lead to life-threatening flash floods.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT24 KNHC 070850

TCMAT4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM

TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24

HOURS.



INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  86.9W AT 07/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   3 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  86.9W AT 07/0900Z

AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  87.0W



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...110NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...130NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT...130NE 130SE  70SW  80NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W...NEAR THE VA COAST

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N  86.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BERG



2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT24 KNHC 070234

TCMAT4



POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  86.6W AT 07/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  86.6W AT 07/0300Z

AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  86.6W



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N  86.5W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N  86.2W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW  20NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N  86.1W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N  86.3W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.4N  87.2W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N  85.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 38.5N  77.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  86.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-10-07 09:35

WTNT24 KNHC 062049

TCMAT4



POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142018

2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...



THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.



THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE

COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.



POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.6W AT 06/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.6W AT 06/2100Z

AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  86.6W



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N  86.7W

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N  86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N  86.6W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT...120NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N  86.7W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT...120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N  87.5W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N  86.5W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N  81.5W...INLAND

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  86.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN