Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KENANGA-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230026
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: LOW 4 (EX-KENANGA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 77.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SCATTERED SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 115 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
WHERE LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
18.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
19.9 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
RSMC LA REUNION ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER
TO THE DAILY BULLETIN AWIO20 FMEE AND TO THE SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR
METAREA VIII(S) FQIO26 FIMP.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221925 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 77.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, SE

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221925 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 77.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221925

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 77.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES DEUX PASS ASCAT DE LA SOIREE ONT ETE TRES UTILES POUR PRECISER LA
LOCALISATION, LA STRUCTURE ET L'INTENSITE DE KENANGA. DU COUP DE VENT
MINIMAL EST ENCORE PRESENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD SUR LES ASCAT ET
CELA A SERVI DE BASE POUR L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE.

KENANGA DEVRAIT PROCHAINEMENT DEVENIR UNE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT.

LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE DECALLE VERS L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A LUNDI. ENSUITE, LA DORSALE
DE BASSES COUCHES SE RECONSTRUISANT DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME, ASSOCIEE
AVEC L'ARRIVEE DE CILIDA DANS LE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, INDUIT UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR QUI FAIT ACCELERER LE SYSTEME EN DIRECTION DU SUD, EN
PRECIPITANT LE COMBLEMENT .

LA PRESENCE D'EAUX FROIDES AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE
DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA DEVRAIT FINIR DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221925

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 77.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, DISSIPATING


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE TWO ASCAT PASS OF THIS EVENING WERE USEFUL TO ASSESS POSITION,
STRICTURE AND INTENSITY OF KENANGA. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.

KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE VERY SOON AS A FILLING UP LOW.

WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK CURVE MORE
CLEARLY SOUTHWESTWARD. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PHILOSOPHY UNTIL MONDAY. THEN, THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE REBUILT IN
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO THE ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTH-WEST
OF CILIDA. THE RESULTING STEERING FLOW GIVE AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD
TRACK.

THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD LIMIT ANY RISK OF
REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL-UP DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 221839
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 77.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SCATTERED SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181222125126
2018122212 06S KENANGA 028 02 245 05 SATL 020
T000 172S 0779E 035 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 179S 0770E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.9S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 9 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122118 163S 790E 50
0618122118 163S 790E 50
0618122200 167S 787E 45
0618122206 170S 784E 40
0618122212 172S 779E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.9S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE GREATLY WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED AT
LEAST 70 NM EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE 221019Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS AN
EXPOSED AND RAGGED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC KENANGA WILL CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INFLUX OF COLD BAROCLINIC AIR. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221310 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 77.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 110



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221310 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 77.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221310

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 77.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 110



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX POURSUIVENT LEUR RECHAUFFEMENT.
DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ESTIMATION DVORAK N EST PLUS UTILISABLE ALORS
QUE LES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SPORADIQUES DANS LA PARTIE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION MAINTENANT NE PRESENTENT AUCUNE REELLE ORGANISATION.

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 0824Z CONFIRMENT UN COEUR DE BASSES
COUCHES ENTAME DANS SA PARTIE NORD (CANAL 37GHZ).

LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE DECALLE VERS L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
SYSTEME S'ORIENTE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES
MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE
JUSQU'A LUNDI. ENSUITE, LA DORSALE DE BASSES COUCHES SE
RECONSTRUISANT DANS L'EST DU SYSTEME, ASSOCIEE AVEC L'ARRIVEE DE LA
DEPRESION SE COMBLANT EX-CILIDA DANS LE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, INDUIT
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR QUI FAIT ACCELERER LE SYSTEM EN DIRECTION DU SUD,
EN PRECIPITANT LE COMBLEMENT .

LA PRESENCE D'EAUX FROIDES AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE
DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA DEVRAIT FINIR DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221310

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 77.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM UP.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES IS NOT YET USEFULL AS
THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NOW LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE,DO NOT
SHOW ANY RECOGNIZABLE PATTERN.

THE 0824Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES THUS CONFIRM A LOW LEVEL INNER-CORE OPEN
IN THE NORTHERN PART (37GHZ CANAL).

WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK CURVE MORE
CLEARLY SOUTHWESTWARD. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PHILOSOPHY UNTIL MONDAY. THEN, THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE REBUILT IN
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO THE ARRIVAL IN THE SOUTH-WEST
OF THE FILLING UP DEPRESSION EX-CILIDA. THE RESULTING STEERING FLOW
GIVE A ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD TRACK.

THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD LIMIT ANY RISK OF
REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL-UP DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 221222
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 77.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
18.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181222073320
2018122206 06S KENANGA 027 02 225 04 SATL 025
T000 170S 0784E 040 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 176S 0776E 035 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 185S 0766E 030
T036 194S 0757E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4S 75.7E

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181222073320
2018122206 06S KENANGA 027 02 225 04 SATL 025
T000 170S 0784E 040 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 176S 0776E 035 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 185S 0766E 030
T036 194S 0757E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 78.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122118 163S 790E 50
0618122118 163S 790E 50
0618122200 167S 787E 45
0618122206 170S 784E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 78.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE DERIVED FROM A 220428Z 25-KM RESOLUTION
ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 06S HAS REACHED AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND,
COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, MORE THAN LIKELY, SOONER. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220631 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 78.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 110



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX=038 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220631 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=038 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220631

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 78.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 170 NO: 110



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX=038 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX CONTINUENT DE SE RECHAUFFER FRANCHEMENT ET LE
VORTEX DE NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES DEVIENT VISIBLE A TRAVERS LES
CIRRUS DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST.
DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ESTIMATION DVORAK N EST PLUS UTILISABLE ALORS
QUE LES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SPORADIQUES DANS LA PARTIE SUD DE LA
CIRCULATION NE PRESENTENT AUCUNE REELLE ORGANISATION.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 0126Z MONTRENT UN COEUR DE BASSES
COUCHES ENTAME DANS SA PARTIE NORD (CANAL 37GHZ).

AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST.
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE
TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A LUNDI. ENSUITE, LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE AVEC DES
MODELES QUI FONT DESCENDRE LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL PLEIN SUD OU AVEC UN
CAP ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST A SUD MODERE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. L'ENROULEMENT
D'AIR SEC DEPUIS LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST CONTRIBUE EGALEMENT A
AFFAIBLIR KENANGA. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA PRESENCE D'EAUX FROIDES AU
SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA
DEVRAIT FINIR DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220631

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 170 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=038 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM UP AND THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
VORTEX IS VISIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES IS NOT YET USEFULL AS
THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS DO NOT SHOW ANY RECOGNIZABLE PATTERN.
THE 0126Z GMI MW IMAGES THUS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INNER-CORE OPEN IN
THE NORTHERN PART (37GHZ CANAL).

WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK CURVE MORE
CLEARLY SOUTHWESTWARD. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS PHILOSOPHY UNTIL MONDAY. THEN, THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES INCREASES AS CERTAIN MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD MOTION OF
THE RESIDUAL LOW WHILE OTHERS KEEP ON GOING SOUTHWESTWARDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDSHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM ALSO CONTRIBUTES SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEAKENING OF KENANGA. IN
LATER TAUS, THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD LIMIT ANY
RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL-UP
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 220628
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 78.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND = 38 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
18.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181222011721
2018122200 06S KENANGA 026 02 250 06 SATL XTRP 050
T000 165S 0784E 045 R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 169S 0775E 040 R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 175S 0765E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 183S 0756E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 192S 0748E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181222011721
2018122200 06S KENANGA 026 02 250 06 SATL XTRP 050
T000 165S 0784E 045 R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 169S 0775E 040 R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 175S 0765E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 183S 0756E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 192S 0748E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.1S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.0S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 78.5E.
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122118 162S 788E 55
0618122118 162S 788E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.3S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 78.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 662 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 212012Z AMSR2
36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A BROAD LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, DESPITE LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DUE TO MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 06S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE
EAST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MARGINAL SSTS UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 48 AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD TC 07S. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS 140 NM AT TAU
48, LENDING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220106 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 78.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SO: 320 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0-.CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220106 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 78.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SW: 320 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0-.CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220106

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 78.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SO: 320 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0-;CI=3.5

LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX CONTINUENT DE SE RECHAUFFER FRANCHEMENT ET LE
VORTEX DE NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES EST VISIBLE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-EST. DANS CES CONDITIONS, L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DEVIENT MOINS
FIABLE ALORS QUE LES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SPORADIQUES NE PRESENTENT
AUCUNE REELLE ORGANISATION. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2021Z
MONTRENT AINSI UNE BANDE INCURVEE TRES FRAGMENTEE QUI S'ENROULE
AUTOUR D'UN COEUR ENCORE RELATIVEMENT BIEN CONSTITUE POUR LE MOMENT
EN BASSES COUCHES (CANAL 37GHZ).

LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX MAINTIENNENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
KENANGA VERS L'OUEST. AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT S'ORIENTER
PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN
BON ACCORD SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'A LUNDI.
ENSUITE, LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE AVEC DES MODELES QUI FONT DESCENDRE
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL PLEIN SUD OU AVEC UN CAP ORIENTE AU SUD-OUEST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST A SUD MODERE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. L'ENROULEMENT
D'AIR SEC DEPUIS LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST CONTRIBUE EGALEMENT A
AFFAIBLIR KENANGA. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA PRESENCE D'EAUX FROIDES AU
SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA
DEVRAIT FINIR DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220106

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 78.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SW: 320 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0-;CI=3.5

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM UP AND THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
VORTEX IS VISIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BECOMING LESS RELIABLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS DO NOT SHOW ANY RECOGNIZABLE PATTERN. THE 2012Z
AMSR2 MW IMAGES THUS SHOW A FRAGMENTED CURVED BAND WRAPING AROUND AN
INNER-CORE THAT REMAINS RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED FOR NOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS (37GHZ CANAL).


HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS MAINTAIN KENANGA'S WESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM TODAY, WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD. ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PHILOSOPHY UNTIL
MONDAY. THEN, THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCES INCREASES AS
CERTAIN MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE RESIDUAL LOW WHILE
OTHERS KEEP ON GOING SOUTHWESTWARDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDSHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM ALSO CONTRIBUTES SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEAKENING OF KENANGA. IN
LATER TAUS, THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD LIMIT ANY
RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL-UP
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 220016
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 78.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 212100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221193621
2018122118 06S KENANGA 025 02 260 06 SATL 045
T000 162S 0788E 055 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 166S 0777E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 171S 0766E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 177S 0755E 040 R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 183S 0746E 035 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 200S 0731E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 212100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221193621
2018122118 06S KENANGA 025 02 260 06 SATL 045
T000 162S 0788E 055 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 166S 0777E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 171S 0766E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 177S 0755E 040 R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 183S 0746E 035 R034 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 200S 0731E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.1S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.0S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 78.5E.
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122106 162S 799E 70
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122112 161S 794E 60
0618122118 162S 788E 55
0618122118 162S 788E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.1S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.0S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUAL DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 211612Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
CORRECTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR TILT THAT WAS
EVIDENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KTS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST. NAVGEM, GFS, AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SHARPER TURN POLEWARD THAN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE REMAINING NUMERICAL
MODELS (ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS
TO ALIGN WITH THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM CLUSTER. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL (26C-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211917 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 79.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SO: 320 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0+.CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211917 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 79.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SW: 320 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+.CI=4.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211917

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 79.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SO: 320 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX=015 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0+;CI=4.0-

LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE KENANGA CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER. LES
IMAGES IR ET MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1305Z ET 1203Z MONTRENT QUE LA
CONVECTION NE REUSSIT DESORMAIS A SE DECLENCHER QUE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LA OU LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSE COUCHE EST LA PLUS
FORTE. L'INFILTRATION DE L'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR MEME DU SYSTEME
RESTE BIEN VISIBLE SUR LES ANIMATIONS MIMIC DE CONTENU EN EAU
PRECIPITABLE. LES EAUX SOUS-JASCENTES DISPOSENT DESORMAIS D'UN
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE PLUS LIMITE.

LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX MAINTIENNENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
KENANGA VERS L'OUEST. SAMEDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE MAIS DIFFERENT UN PEU SUR
LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. QUELQUES MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE DU CEP CONTINUENT SUR UN CAP ORIENTE OUEST AU LIEU DE
DESCENDRE AU SUD-OUEST, PROBABLEMENT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT PLUS
RAPIDEMENT QUE LA MOYENNE, MAIS ILS NE REPRESENTENT PAS L'OPTION
MAJORITAIRE.

LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. L'ENROULEMENT D'AIR SEC DEPUIS LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST
CONTRIBUE EGALEMENT A AFFAIBLIR KENANGA. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA
PRESENCE D'EAUX FROIDES AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE
REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA DEVRAIT FINIR DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211917

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 79.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 460 SW: 320 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0-

KENANGA'S SAT PRESENTATION KEEPS ON DETERIORATING. THE IR AND SSMIS
1305Z AND 1203Z MW IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS NOW ONLY
TRIGGERING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST. THE DRY AIR INFILTRATION DIRECTLY INTO
KENANGA'S CORE IS STILL WELL VISIBLE ON THE MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANIMATIONS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS ARE ALSO LESS ENERGETIC.

HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS MAINTAIN KENANGA'S WESTWARD MOTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM SATURDAY, WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL BEGIN TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD. ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFER
A LITTLE ON THE MOTION SPEED. A FEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP ON
GOING WESTWARD WITHOUT REALLY TURNING, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A QUICKER
WEAKENING THAN THE OTHERS, BUT THEY DO NOT REPRESENT THE MAIN OPTION.

ALTITUDE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWEST WINDSHEAR IN AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE. THE
DRY AIR SUPPLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR, WHICH WRAPS AROUND THE
SYSTEM, CONTRIBUTES TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING KENANGA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S
SHOULD LIMIT ANY RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY FILL-UP DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 211828
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 79.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 211500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221132854
2018122112 06S KENANGA 024 02 280 07 SATL 045
T000 161S 0793E 060 R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 162S 0783E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 166S 0772E 045 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 171S 0761E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 177S 0751E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 192S 0733E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221132854
2018122112 06S KENANGA 024 02 280 07 SATL 045
T000 161S 0793E 060 R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 162S 0783E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 166S 0772E 045 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 171S 0761E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 177S 0751E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 192S 0733E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.7S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.2S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 79.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122106 162S 800E 70
0618122106 162S 800E 70
0618122106 162S 800E 70
0618122112 161S 793E 60
0618122112 161S 793E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 211500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.7S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.2S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 79.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 211032Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS.
TC 06S IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-
ORIENTS TO THE EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH INDICATES A
SHARP POLEWARD TURN, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE,
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TC
KENANGA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES (26C).
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211219 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 79.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211219 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 79.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211219

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 79.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 430 SO: 330 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST ENCORE EN CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE
AVEC UNE CONVECTION TRES FLUCTUANTE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES.
UNE AMORCE DE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE PEUT APPARAITRE AU COURS DES
DERNIERS INSTANTS SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST MODERE D'APRES LES DONNES DU CIMMS. LES DONNES
MIMIC-TPW PERMETTENT DE NOTER LA PRESENCE D'UN AIR SEC DANS LE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST QUI S'ENROULE AUTOUR DU SYSTEME ET DEVRAIT Y
PENETRER PROCHAINEMENT. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK BASCULE KENANGA AU STADE
DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 60 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISION : LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX MAINTIENNENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE KENANGA VERS L'OUEST AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. CEPENDANT, SUITE AU DECALAGE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, LE SYSTEME S'ORIENTE PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. L'ENSEMBLE DES
MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR L'ALLURE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS
DIFFERENT UN PEU SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, EN
PRENANT EN COMPTE LE MAINTIEN DE LA TRAJECTROIRE PLUS OUEST PROPOSEE
PAR IFS.

LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC PAR LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST QUI
S'ENROULE AUTOUR DU SYSTEME CONTRIBUE A AFFAIBLIR NETTEMENT KENANGA
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA PRESENCE D'EAU FROIDES
AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION.
KENANGA EST PREVU DISPARAITRE LENTEMENT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211219

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 79.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 430 SW: 330 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH A VERY FLUCTUATING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. A SHEAR CONFIGURATION
INITIATION MAY APPEAR IN THE LAST MOMENTS DUE TO MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA. THE
MIMIC-TPW DATA ALLOW US TO NOTE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTOR WHICH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD
ALLOW IT TO ENTER IT SOON. DUE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, KENANGA BECOME A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECASTING: HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS MAINTAIN THE
KENANGA'S TRACK A WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MORE
CLEARLY TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY. ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK'S APPEARANCE BUT DIFFER A LITTLE BIT ON THE
SPEED. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS,
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MAINTENANCE OF THE MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY
PROPOSED BY IFS MODEL.

ALTITUDE CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST
THEN SOUTHWEST WINDSHEAR IN AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE. THE DRY AIR SUPPLY
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR, WHICH WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM,
CONTRIBUTES TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING KENANGA TODAY AND TOMORROW. IN
THE LONGER TERM, THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD LIMIT
ANY RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO DISAPPEAR
SLOWLY FROM SUNDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 211208
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 79.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 MN IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221085456
2018122106 06S KENANGA 023 02 285 04 SATL 060
T000 162S 0800E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 162S 0790E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 165S 0780E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 170S 0769E 045 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 176S 0757E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 188S 0741E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221085456
2018122106 06S KENANGA 023 02 285 04 SATL 060
T000 162S 0800E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 162S 0790E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 165S 0780E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 170S 0769E 045 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 176S 0757E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 188S 0741E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 79.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 701 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122018 163S 809E 85
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122100 163S 804E 80
0618122106 162S 800E 70
0618122106 162S 800E 70
0618122106 162S 800E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 79.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 701 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 210341Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.5
(55/77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM, WHICH INDICATES A SHARP POLEWARD TURN, THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TC KENANGA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES (26C). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210629 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 80.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210629 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 80.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210629

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 80.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
72H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE RESTE EN CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE AVEC DES
SOMMETS QUI SE RECHAUFFENT, TRADUISANT L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC PAR LE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST QUI ETAIT VISIBLE SUR LES MICRO-ONDES DE 0035UTC.
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK LAISSE ENCORE KENANGA AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL A 0600UTC AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES A 65 KT.

LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX INFLECHISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
KENANGA VERS L'OUEST. AVEC LE DECALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
VERS L'EST EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME S'ORIENTE PAR LA SUITE
PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES DISPONIBLES, EN PRENANT EN COMPTE LE
MAINTIEN DE LA TRAJECTROIRE PLUS OUEST PROPOSEE PAR IFS.

LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE MAIS AUSSI
L'ARRIVEE D'AIR SEC PAR LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST ET S'ENROULANT AUTOUR
DU SYSTEME. CES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC DEVRAIENT S'INTENSIFIER
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA PRESENCE D'EAU FROIDES
AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION.
KENANGA EST PREVU ALORS LENTEMENT DISPARAITRE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210629

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 80.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH ACTIVITY CONVECTION
THAT WARM UP, REFLECTING THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTOR THAT WAS VISIBLE ON THE 0035UTC MICROWAVES. THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE STILL LEAVES KENANGA AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
0600UTC WITH ESTIMATED WINDS AT 65 KT.

THE HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS INFLECT THE KENANGA'S TRACK TO THE
WEST. WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE SYSTEM THEN
TURNS MORE CLEARLY SOUTHWEST FROM SATURDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND SET OF AVAILABLE
MODELS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MAINTENANCE OF THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK PROPOSED BY IFS.

ALTITUDE CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN MID TROPOSPHERE BUT ALSO THE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SECTOR AND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THESE
DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY AND TOMORROW. IN
THE LONGER TERM, THE PRESENCE OF COLD WATER SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD LIMIT
ANY RISK OF REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA IS PLANNED SO SLOWLY DISAPPEAR
FROM SUNDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 210613
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 80.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 18 UTC:
16.4 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221022250
2018122100 06S KENANGA 022 02 295 05 SATL 035
T000 162S 0804E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD
130 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 161S 0795E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 163S 0785E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 167S 0776E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 173S 0766E 045 R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 185S 0748E 035 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 204S 0736E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181221022250
2018122100 06S KENANGA 022 02 295 05 SATL 035
T000 162S 0804E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 161S 0795E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 163S 0785E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 167S 0776E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 173S 0766E 045 R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 185S 0748E 035 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 204S 0736E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.7S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.4S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122012 165S 813E 90
0618122018 164S 809E 85
0618122018 164S 809E 85
0618122018 164S 809E 85
0618122100 162S 804E 80
0618122100 162S 804E 80
0618122100 162S 804E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.7S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.4S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE (200NM DIAMETER) CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST REGION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 202157Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTING SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO
90 KNOTS). TC 06S HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM HAS
TRANSITIONED TO A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS
OF BOTH TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEPICT
STEADY WEAKENING AND A TRACK THAT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD
AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RATE OF EXPECTED WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z,
212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210136 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 80.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210136 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 80.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210136

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 80.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTE EN
CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SONT COMPRISES ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.0.
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST RETENUE A 70 KT SUR LA PORTION BASSE DE CES
ESTIMATIONS. LES DERNIRES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (0030Z) MONTRENT ENCORE
UNE BONNE ORGANISATION DU COEUR CENTRAL.


KENANGA EN BUTANT DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX A RALENTI
ET A INFLECHI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST ET MEME L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
D'APRES LES FIXS DE LA NUIT. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ENSUITE S'ORIENTER VERS L'OUEST AUJOURD'HUI PUIS LE SUD-OUEST DEMAIN.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES DISPONIBLES.

LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE DEGRADENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
PRINCIPALEMENT. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT FAVORISER DES INTRUSIONS
D'AIR SEC NOTAMMENT DEMAIN ET SAMEDI. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA PRESENCE
D'EAU FROIDES AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE
REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA EST PREVU ALORS LENTEMENT DISPARAITRE AU
SEIN DU VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE DE CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210136

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 80.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED AN EMBEDDED
CENTER WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE RANGING
FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 AND THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THIS ESTIMATES. RECENT MW IMAGERY (0030Z) STILL DEPICT A WELL
DEFINED INNER CORE.

WHILE BUMPING INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS KENANGA SLOWED DOWN
AND BEGAN TO TRACK WESTWARD AND EVEN WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS ACCORDING
TO NIGHT FIXS. WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESWARDS TODAY AND THEN SOUTH-WESTWARD TOMORROW.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MAIN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS.

TODAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECAY WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN MID TROPOSPHERE. THIS
HOSTILE CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL
DEFINITELY BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 18S. THE LOW SHOULD THEN
MERGE SLOWLY WITH THE VAST SURFACE TROUGH OF CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 210046
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 80.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 202100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.5S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.8S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.4S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.6S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE (250NM DIAMETER) CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST REGION WITH A FAINT INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY
SUPPORTED BY A 201600Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF EYEWALL CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5
TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY A RECENT CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. TC 06S HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNDER
THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS OF BOTH TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING AND A TRACK THAT IS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN
THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RATE OF
EXPECTED WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 202100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220203652
2018122018 06S KENANGA 021 02 285 04 SATL 030
T000 165S 0810E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD
120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 164S 0801E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 165S 0791E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 168S 0782E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 174S 0772E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 186S 0752E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 198S 0742E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 225S 0730E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220203652
2018122018 06S KENANGA 021 02 285 04 SATL 030
T000 165S 0810E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 164S 0801E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 165S 0791E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 168S 0782E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 174S 0772E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 186S 0752E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 198S 0742E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 225S 0730E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.5S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.8S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.4S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.6S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.8S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.5S 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 166S 814E 90
0618122012 166S 814E 90
0618122012 166S 814E 90
0618122018 165S 810E 85
0618122018 165S 810E 85
0618122018 165S 810E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201943 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 80.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 410 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0- CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201943 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 80.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201943

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 80.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 410 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0- CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A COMMENCE A
SE DEGRADER AVEC UN OEIL QUI A DISPARU ET UNE CONFIGURATION BASCULANT
EN CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES MONTRE QUE LE MUR DE L'OEIL TENTE DE SE RECONSTRUIRE DANS
LA PARTIE NORD-OUEST (ERODEE PRECEDEMENT). MEME SI LA CONFIGURATION
COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER, L'INTENSITE EST LAISSE A 80 KT PAR INERTIE DU
CHAMPS DE VENT.

PEU OU PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE:

KENANGA EN BUTANT DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX A RALENTI
ET A INFLECHI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST DEMAIN.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS DIVERGENT SUR LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE COMPORTEMENT EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE. EN EFFET, LA DESCENTE DE CILIDA A L'OUEST DEVRAIT
ATTIRER LE MINIMUM ET AUGMENTER L'INCERTITUDE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES DISPONIBLES.

CE SOIR, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE VONT CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER AVEC
UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PRINCIPALEMENT. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT FAVORISER DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC NOTAMMENT DEMAIN ET SAMEDI. A PLUS LONG TERME,
LA PRESENCE D'EAU FROIDES AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE
DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA EST PREVU ALORS LENTEMENT DISPARAITRE
AU SEIN DU VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE DE CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201943

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 80.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 410 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE
WITH THE EYE PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS AN EMBEDDED CENTER
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
REBUILT SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT (PREVIOUSLY ERODED).
EVEN IF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN, THE WIND FIELDS
SHOULD LAG BEHIND AND THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KT.

LITTLE OR NO CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST REASONING:

WHILE BUMPING INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS KENANGA SLOWED DOWN
AND BEGAN TO TRACK WESTWARD. WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD TOMORROW.
THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER ON TRACK SPEED AND BEHAVIOUR AT LONGER RANGE.
INDEED CILIDA DESCENT IS LIKELY TO LURE KENANGA SOUTHWARD AND THUS
DECREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS.

TODAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECAY WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN MID TROPOSPHERE. THIS
HOSTILE CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL
DEFINITELY BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 18S. THE LOW SHOULD THEN
MERGE SLOWLY WITH THE VAST SURFACE TROUGH OF CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201846 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 80.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201846
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 80.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 105
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 06 UTC:
16.6 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 18 UTC:
16.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 201500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220133533
2018122012 06S KENANGA 020 02 270 03 SATL 030
T000 166S 0814E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD
125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 165S 0805E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0795E 065 R064 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 167S 0785E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 171S 0777E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 179S 0762E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 191S 0747E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 205S 0732E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 201500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220133533
2018122012 06S KENANGA 020 02 270 03 SATL 030
T000 166S 0814E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 165S 0805E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0795E 065 R064 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 167S 0785E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 171S 0777E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 179S 0762E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 191S 0747E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 205S 0732E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.1S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122012 166S 814E 90
0618122012 166S 814E 90
0618122012 166S 814E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.1S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF THE EYE AND
SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED CORE CONVECTION. A 201102Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF EYEWALL
CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO
5.5 (102 KNOTS), CONSISTENT WITH A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS.
TC 06S HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS OF BOTH
TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING AND A
TRACK THAT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE RATE OF EXPECTED WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201249 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 81.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201249 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 81.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201249

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 81.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE KENANGA
S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIORER. LA FAIBLESSE EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE A
DISPARU ET UN OEIL RELATIVEMENT BIEN DEFINIE EST REVENU. CEPENDANT
LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES EN 89GHZ (SSMI 0941Z ET AMSR2 0836Z)
MONTRENT LA PERSISTANCE DE LA NETTE FAIBLESSE DANS LE MUR OCCIDENTAL
DE KENANGA. AU VU DE LA TENDANCE GLOBALE ET DE CETTE LEGERE
AMELIORATION VISUELLE, L'INTENSITE N'A PAS ETE BAISSEE A 12Z.

KENANGA EN BUTANT DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX A RALENTI
ET A INFLECHI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST DEMAIN.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS DIVERGENT SUR LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE COMPORTEMENT EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE. EN EFFET, LA DESCENTE DE CILIDA A L'OUEST DEVRAIT
ATTIRER LE MINIMUM ET AUGMENTER L'INCERTIUDE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES DISPONIBLES.

CE SOIR, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE VONT CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER AVEC
UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PRINCIPALEMENT. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT FAVORISER DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC NOTAMMENT DEMAIN ET SAMEDI. A PLUS LONG TERME,
LA PRESENCE D'EAU FROIDES AU SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE
DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA EST PREVU ALORS LENTEMENT DISPARAITRE
AU SEIN DU VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE DE CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201249

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 81.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, KENANGA CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED A LITTLE. THE
WEAKNESS IN INFRARED DISAPPEARED A THE EYE GOT CLEARER. HOWEVER
RECENT MICROWAVE IN 89GHZ (SSMI 0941Z AND AMSR2 0836Z) SHOW THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. GIVEN
THE GLOBAL TREND AND THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT, INTENSITY REMAINED
STATIONARY AT 12Z.

WHILE BUMPING INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS KENANGA SLOWED DOWN
AND BEGAN TO TRACK WESTWARD. WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD TOMORROW.
THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER ON TRACK SPEED AND BEHAVIOUR AT LONGER RANGE.
INDEED CILIDA DESCENT IS LIKELY TO LURE KENANGA SOUTHWARD AND THUS
DECREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS.

TODAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECAY WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN MID TROPOSPHERE. THIS
HOSTILE CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL
DEFINITELY BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 18S. THE LOW SHOULD THEN
MERGE SLOWLY WITH THE VAST SURFACE TROUGH OF CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201219 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 81.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 12 UTC:
16.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 201219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 81.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 12 UTC:
16.6 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220081838
2018122006 06S KENANGA 019 02 270 02 SATL 020
T000 166S 0817E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD
125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 165S 0809E 085 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0799E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 166S 0789E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 169S 0779E 050 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 177S 0765E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 188S 0750E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 202S 0735E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220081838
2018122006 06S KENANGA 019 02 270 02 SATL 020
T000 166S 0817E 100 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 165S 0809E 085 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165S 0799E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 166S 0789E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 169S 0779E 050 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 177S 0765E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 188S 0750E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 202S 0735E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.2S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
0618122006 166S 817E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.2S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 200329Z ASCAT
PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS
REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS A RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 99 KNOTS. TC 06S HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, JUST ABOVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNDER ONGOING
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS OF BOTH
TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
MODELS DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING AND A TRACK THAT IS MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RATE OF EXPECTED
WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200638

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 81.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5-;CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE KENANGA
A CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER. LA CEINTURE CONVECTIVE S'EST RECHAUFFEE ET
UNE FAIBLESSE EST APPARUE DANS LA PARTIE EST EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE.
LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT TOUJOURS UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LE MUR OUEST EN 89GHZ. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE POURSUIT DONC SANS
DOUTE EN LIEN AVEC LA FAIBLE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE ET PAR BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT.

KENANGA EN BUTANT DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX A RALENTI
ET A INFLECHI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ENSUITE S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS DIVERGENT SUR LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT ET LE COMPORTEMENT EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE. EN EFFET, LA DESCENTE DE CILIDA A L'OUEST DEVRAIT
ATTIRER LE MINIMUM ET AUGMENTER L'INCERTIUDE. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES DISPONIBLES.

AUJOURD'HUI, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE VONT CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER
AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE. CETTE
CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT FAVORISER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC NOTAMMENT
DEMAIN ET SAMEDI. A PLUS LONG TERME, LA PRESENCE D'EAU FROIDES AU
SUD DE 18S DEVRAIT LIMITER TOUT RISQUE DE REINTENSIFICATION. KENANGA
EST PREVU ALORS LENTEMENT DISPARAITRE AU SEIN DU VASTE THALWEG DE
SURFACE DE CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200638

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 81.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- ; CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, KENANGA CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. THE
CONVECTIVE RING IS WARMER AND A WEAKNESS IS APPARENT IN INFRARED
IMAGERY ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THIS BREACH MAY BE RELATED TO THE ONE
VISIBLE IN LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN
89GHZ. THE WEAKENING TREND IS GOING ON, LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN MID TROPOSPHERE, AND THE LOSS OF
UNDERNEATH OCEANIC POTENTIAL.

WHILE BUMPING INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS KENANGA SLOWED DOWN
AND BEGAN TO TRACK WESTWARD. WITH THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM FRIDAY.
THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER ON TRACK SPEED AND BEHAVIOUR AT LONGER RANGE.
INDEED CILIDA DESCENT IS LIKELY TO LURE KENANGA SOUTHWARD AND THUS
DECREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS.

TODAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECAY WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS HOSTILE CONSTRAINT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER DRY AIR INTRUSIONS
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, OCEANIC POTENTIAL
WILL DEFINITELY BECOME INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF 18S. THE LOW SHOULD THEN
MERGE SLOWLY WITH THE VAST SURFACE TROUGH OF CILIDA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 200622
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 81.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220020018
2018122000 06S KENANGA 018 02 225 01 SATL 020
T000 166S 0819E 110 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD
125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 166S 0815E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165S 0808E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 165S 0800E 070 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 168S 0791E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 175S 0775E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 184S 0764E 040 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 201S 0754E 035 R034 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181220020018
2018122000 06S KENANGA 018 02 225 01 SATL 020
T000 166S 0819E 110 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 166S 0815E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165S 0808E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 165S 0800E 070 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 168S 0791E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 175S 0775E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 184S 0764E 040 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 201S 0754E 035 R034 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.1S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
0618122000 166S 819E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.1S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110
KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KTS) BUT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE INCREASING EYE
DISORGANIZATION, AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 192012Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
100 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG, WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AS
TC 06S IS PARALLELING THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM TO ITS SOUTH.
TC 06S IS TRACKING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. AFTER TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
CAUSING THE STR TO REORIENT EASTWARD AND ALLOWING TC 06S TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S TO THE WEST WILL BE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF TC 06S.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DOES NOT PORTRAY ANY DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. TC 06S WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS, WEAKENING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING
VWS. TC 06S IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO 35 KTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY AT LATER TAUS, WITH
A SPREAD OF 300 NM AT TAU 120. ALL MODELS PORTRAY A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT VARY IN THE SHARPNESS AND DEGREE OF RECURVATURE. ECMWF
IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BRINGS TC 06S MUCH FURTHER WEST, WHILE HWRF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200042

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 82.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0-;CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
KENANDA S'EST DEGRADEE. L'OEIL EST RESTE DECHIQUETE ET SOUVENT
ALLONGE. DEPUIS 1200Z, LE SYSTEME A BIEN RALENTI. IL EST PROBABLE QUE
CELUI-CI COMMENCE A EPUISER LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DES EAUX
SOUS-JACENTES QUI COMMENCE A DEVENIR PEU IMPORTANT A CETTE LATITUDE.

KENANGA EN BUTANT DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX A RALENTI
ET DEVRAIT INFLECHIR AUJOURD'HUI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. AVEC LE
DA CALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE
PERIODE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-OUEST A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE PERSISTE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SUR LE TIMING
EXACT DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SE
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

AUJOURD'HUI PROGRESSIVEMENT, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES
SE DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE
SELON LES MODELES, ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET D'UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT SE
POURSUIVRE MEME SI QUELQUES REBONDS D'INTENSITE SONT ENCORE
POSSIBLES AUJOURD'HUI AU PASSAGE DE ZONES OCEANIQUES PLUS
ENERGETIQUES ET PENDANT LES PERIODES OU L'AIR SEC RESTE EN
PERIPHERIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200042

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0-;CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. EYE HAS
REMAINED RAGGED AND OFTEN ELLONGATED. SINCE 1200Z, THE SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED DOWN. IT IS LIKELY THAT KENANDA BEGINS TO CONSUME THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL THAT BECOMES LESS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS LATITUDE.

KENANGA BUMPING INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS HAS SLOWED DOWN
AND SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND WESTWARD. WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
HIGH OVER THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM
FRIDAY.
THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MAINLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MAIN
GUIDANCES CONSENSUS.

TODAY, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN PROGRESSIVELY TO DETERIORATE
WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS AND A DECREASE IN
OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. THE WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD KEEP ON EVEN IF A
FEW INTENSITY REBOUNDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WHEN THE SYSTEM CROSSES
OCEANIC AREAS WITH HIGHER HEAT POTENTIAL OR DURING THE PERIODS WHERE
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PERIPHERY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 200019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 192100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219192905
2018121918 06S KENANGA 017 02 270 03 SATL 020
T000 165S 0820E 115 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD
165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 165S 0814E 105 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165S 0808E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 166S 0800E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 168S 0793E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 178S 0777E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 189S 0761E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 206S 0754E 040 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 192100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219192905
2018121918 06S KENANGA 017 02 270 03 SATL 020
T000 165S 0820E 115 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 165S 0814E 105 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165S 0808E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 166S 0800E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 168S 0793E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 178S 0777E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 189S 0761E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 206S 0754E 040 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.8S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.8S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121818 153S 832E 100
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
0618121918 165S 820E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.8S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.8S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
ROBUST EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED 13 NM DIAMETER
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS), AND IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 191514Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 107 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG, WELL-DEFINED POLAR AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AS TC 06S IS
PARALLELING THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM TO ITS SOUTH. TC 06S IS
TRACKING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, CAUSING THE
STR TO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOWING TC 06S TO TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, ANOTHER CYCLONE (TC 07S) WILL BE TRACKING
WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT
MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION AT LATER TAUS. TC 06S HAS PEAKED
IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOW SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS,
WEAKENING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING VWS. TC 06S IS PREDICTED TO
WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY AT LATER TAUS, WITH A SPREAD OF 260 NM AT TAU
120. ALL MODELS PORTRAY A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT VARY IN THE
SHARPNESS AND DEGREE OF RECURVE. ECMWF IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER NORTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS TC 06S MUCH FURTHER WEST, WHILE
HWRF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191839

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 82.2 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5-;CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA SIGNATURE DVORAK A FLUCTUE. MAIS
DEPUIS 1600Z, LES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES MONTRENT UN OEIL QUI S'EST
REFROIDIT ET QUI APPARAIT PLUS DA CHIQUETA . L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE
EST EN ACCORD AVEC L'ESTIMATION SATCON DU CIMSS.

KENANGA DEVRAIT VENIR BUTER DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX
CETTE NUIT ET INFLECHIR AINSI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST. AVEC LE DA
CALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST EN COURS DE PERIODE,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE PERSISTE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SUR LE TIMING
EXACT DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SE
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE LE MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE KENANGA JUSQU'A
DEMAIN. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SEMBLE ECARTE AVEC
UNE CHUTE DES PROBABILITES DANS LE MODELE DEDIE DU CIMSS. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES SE DEGRADER AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE SELON LES MODELES,
ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN
BAISSE. UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RELATIVEMENT LENT DEVRAIT DEBUTER
MEME SI QUELQUES REBONDS D'INTENSITE SONT POSSIBLES AU PASSAGE DE
ZONES OCEANIQUES PLUS ENERGETIQUES ET PENDANT LES PERIODES OU L'AIR
SEC RESTE EN PERIPHERIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191839

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 77.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5-;CI=5.5+


OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS FLUCTUATED. BUT, SINCE
1600Z, INFRARED IMAGERIES SHOW AN EYE THAT COOLS DOWN AND APPEARS
PROGRESSIVELY RAGGED. THIS CURRENT ASSESMENT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SATCON FROM CIMSS.

KENANGA SHOULD BUMP INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS BY TONIGHT
AND ITS TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND WESTWARD. WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE HIGH OVER THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TURN
SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM FRIDAY.
THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MAINLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, AS SHOWCASED BY THE ECMWF EPS 00Z DISPERSION.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MAIN GUIDANCES CONSENSUS.

ALBEIT DRY AIR IS STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM, CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW KENANGA TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL TOMORROW. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS UNLIKELY WITH A CLEAR DECREASE IN THE
PROBABILITIES PROPOSED BY THE CIMSS DEDICATED MODEL. FROM TOMORROW,
THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS AND A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT
POTENTIAL. A RELATIVELY SLOW WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD THUS BEGIN EVEN
IF A FEW INTENSITY REBOUNDS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN THE SYSTEM CROSSES
OCEANIC AREAS WITH HIGHER HEAT POTENTIAL OR DURING THE PERIODS WHERE
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PERIPHERY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191828
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 82.2 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 18 UTC:
16.8 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 191500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219130459
2018121912 06S KENANGA 016 02 215 05 SATL 020
T000 165S 0823E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 167S 0817E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 167S 0810E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 166S 0803E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 168S 0796E 075 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 174S 0782E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 184S 0770E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 197S 0758E 045 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.7S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219130459
2018121912 06S KENANGA 016 02 215 05 SATL 020
T000 165S 0823E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 167S 0817E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 167S 0810E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 166S 0803E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 168S 0796E 075 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 174S 0782E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 184S 0770E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 197S 0758E 045 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.7S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.7S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 82.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121906 161S 826E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
0618121912 165S 823E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.7S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.7S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 82.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS OF ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. TC 06S HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE, NOW AT 25 NM
DIAMETER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
191058Z SSMIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T6.5.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE SHOULD NOW TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE
EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, ANOTHER CYCLONE (TC 07S) WILL BE WITHIN
PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY
INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. TC 06S HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOW
SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING
VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO A SPAN
OF OVER 270 NM BY TAU 120 WITH HWRF THE NOTABLE LEFT OF TRACK
OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 44
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191223

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 82.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5;CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA FAIBLESSE DU QUADRANT SUD-EST
S'EST CONFIRMEE SUR LES ANIMATIONS IR. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK ONT
DONC CHUTE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE L'OEIL A TEMPORAIREMENT PRIS UNE ALLURE
ALLONGEE. EN MICRO-ONDES, LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 0754Z ET SSMI DE 0956Z
MONTRENT QUE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION S'EST ERODE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST. CETTE DEGRADATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST
PROBABLEMENT DUE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
DISPONIBLES NE PLAIDENT PAS POUR UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, KENANGA SEMBLE AVOIR FINI PAR
DIGERER CETTE PREMIERE SALVE D'AIR SEC.

KENANGA DEVRAIT VENIR BUTER DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX
D'ICI LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET INFLECHIR AINSI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST
EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE TOURNER VERS LE
SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE VENDREDI.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE PERSISTE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SUR LE TIMING
EXACT DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, BIEN BALISEE PAR LA DISPERSION DE
L'EPS DE 00Z. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SE BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS
DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE LE MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE KENANGA JUSQU'A
DEMAIN. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SEMBLE ECARTE AVEC
UNE CHUTE DES PROBABILITES DANS LE MODELE DEDIE DU CIMSS. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES SE DEGRADER AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE SELON LES MODELES,
ACCOMPAGNE D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC ET D'UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN
BAISSE. UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RELATIVEMENT LENT DEVRAIT DEBUTER
MEME SI QUELQUES REBONDS D'INTENSITE SONT POSSIBLES AU PASSAGE DE
ZONES OCEANIQUES PLUS ENERGETIQUES ET PENDANT LES PERIODES OU L'AIR
SEC RESTE EN PERIPHERIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191223

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 82.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5;CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
CONTINUED TO BE DISPLAYED ON THE IR ANIMATIONS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES DECREASED, WHILE THE EYE TEMPORARILY BECAME
ELONGATED. ON THE MW IMAGES, THE 0754Z AMSR2 AND 0956Z SSMI IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION RING HAS BEEN ERODED IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER-CORE
STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A DRY AIR INTRUSION. MW IMAGES DO NOT
SHOW THE SPECIFIC SIGNATURE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ON THE
LAST IMAGES, KENANGA SEEMS TO HAVE DIGESTED THIS FIRST DRY AIR
INTRUSION.

KENANGA SHOULD BUMP INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS BY TONIGHT
AND ITS TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND WESTWARD. WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE HIGH OVER THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TURN
SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM FRIDAY.
THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MAINLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, AS SHOWCASED BY THE ECMWF EPS 00Z DISPERSION.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MAIN GUIDANCES CONSENSUS.

ALBEIT DRY AIR IS STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM, CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW KENANGA TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL TOMORROW. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS UNLIKELY WITH A CLEAR DECREASE IN THE
PROBABILITIES PROPOSED BY THE CIMSS DEDICATED MODEL. FROM TOMORROW,
THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM,
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS AND A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT
POTENTIAL. A RELATIVELY SLOW WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD THUS BEGIN EVEN
IF A FEW INTENSITY REBOUNDS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN THE SYSTEM CROSSES
OCEANIC AREAS WITH HIGHER HEAT POTENTIAL OR DURING THE PERIODS WHERE
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PERIPHERY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191216
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 82.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 00 UTC:
16.8 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219064339
2018121906 06S KENANGA 015 02 205 04 SATL 020
T000 162S 0826E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 160 SE QD
170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 166S 0820E 105 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 167S 0814E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 166S 0807E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 166S 0799E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 171S 0786E 060 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 178S 0774E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 189S 0761E 040
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219064339
2018121906 06S KENANGA 015 02 205 04 SATL 020
T000 162S 0826E 115 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 166S 0820E 105 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 167S 0814E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 166S 0807E 080 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 166S 0799E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 171S 0786E 060 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 178S 0774E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 189S 0761E 040
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.8S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121906 162S 826E 115
0618121906 162S 826E 115
0618121906 162S 826E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.8S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL SYMMETRIC AND ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AND A DEFINED EYE, NOW AT 35 NM DIAMETER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T6.5. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, ANOTHER CYCLONE (TC 07S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC
06S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW
ERRATIC MOTION. TC 06S APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND WILL NOW SLOWLY
WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND,
BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO A SPAN OF 200
NM BY TAU 120 WITH HWRF THE NOTABLE LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190644

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 82.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SO: 560 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 310 SO: 310 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=6.0

EN TERMES D'ANALYSE DVORAK, L'OEIL DE KENANGA S'EST SUFFISAMMENT
CONTRACTE POUR AUTORISER DESORMAIS LES AJUSTEMENTS DE L'OEIL,
L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE RELEVEE EN CONSEQUENCE. L'ESTIMATION DVORAK
EST EN BON ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES. LES IMAGES MICROONDES SSMIS DE 0057Z MONTRENT UNE
STRUCTURE INTERNE ANNULAIRE TOUJOURS TRES SOLIDE. AU COURS DE LA
DERNIERE HEURE, L'AIR SEC A COMMENCE A AFFECTER LA CONVECTION DU
QUADRANT SUD-EST.

KENANGA DEVRAIT VENIR BUTER DANS LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX
D'ICI LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET INFLECHIR AINSI SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST
EN COURS DE PERIODE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE TOURNER VERS LE
SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE VENDREDI.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE PERSISTE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, SUR LE TIMING
EXACT DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE SE
BASE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES, SANS DONNER
TROP DE POIDS A LA SOLUTION DE L'IFS QUI CONTINUE A PROPOSER UNE
TRAJECTOIRE OUEST.

MALGRE LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU SYSTEME, LES CONDITIONS
DEVRAIENT RESTER FAVORABLES AU MAINTIEN DE L'INTENSITE DE KENANGA AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 18 HEURES. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, MAIS CE RISQUE RESTE
ENCORE MODERE D'APRES LE MODELE DEDIE DU CIMSS (PROBABILITE D'ENVIRON
.40). PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES SE
DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST FAIBLE A MODERE SELON
LES MODELES, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE. LES MODELES DISPOSANT DE LA MEILLEURE ANALYSE
D'INTENSITE SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PREVOIR UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RELATIVEMENT LENT ET GRADUEL. LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE ICNW
REPRESENTE BIEN CE SCENARIO ET SERT DE BASE A LA PREVISION DU CMRS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190644

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 82.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 460 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 310 SW: 310 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

IN TERM OF DVORAK ANALYSIS, KENANGA'S EYE HAS NOW CONTRACTED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR POSITIVE EYE ADJUSTMENTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATION IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AVAILABLE. THE
0057Z SSMIS MW IMAGES STILL SHOW A SOLID ANNULAR INNER CORE. OVER THE
LAST HOUR, DRY AIR BEGAN TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

KENANGA SHOULD BUMP INTO SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS BY TONIGHT
AND ITS TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND WESTWARD. WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE HIGH OVER THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TURN
SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM FRIDAY. THE MAIN NWP GUIDANCES ARE MAINLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
MAIN GUIDANCES CONSENSUS, WITH LITTLE IMPORTANCE GIVEN TO IFS AND ITS
WESTWARD TRACK.

ALBEIT DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM, CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
KENANGA TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOURS, BUT THIS RISK
REMAINS MODERATE ACCORDING TO CIMSS DEDICATED MODEL (.40
PROBABILITY). THE, THE UPPER CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ESTABLISHING IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSION AND A DECREASE IN OCEAN HEAT
POTENTIAL. THE MODELS WITH THE BEST INTENSITY ANALYSIS FORECAST A
RELATIVELY WEAK AND GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE ICNW INTENSITY CONSENSUS
IS WELL REPRESENTING THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON
THIS CONSENSUS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 82.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 18 UTC:
16.6 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219021239
2018121900 06S KENANGA 014 02 220 06 SATL 025
T000 158S 0828E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 163S 0822E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165S 0817E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 165S 0809E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 165S 0800E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 169S 0783E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 178S 0768E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 189S 0751E 045 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 82.8E

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181219021239
2018121900 06S KENANGA 014 02 220 06 SATL 025
T000 158S 0828E 115 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 163S 0822E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165S 0817E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 165S 0809E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 165S 0800E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 169S 0783E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 178S 0768E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 189S 0751E 045 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.9S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.8S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.9S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 82.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
0618121900 158S 828E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.9S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.8S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.9S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 82.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING A LARGE, 43NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO
115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.5. NO
RECENT SATCON IS AVAILABLE, HOWEVER, AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO
SUPPORTS THE 115 KNOT ASSESSMENT. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, 26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.
TC 06S HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN
OUT AND BECOME MORE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24 AS RIDGING BUILDS IN TO
THE SOUTH OF TRACK. SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD RESUME AFTER TAU 72
AS THAT AREA OF RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD. AROUND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, CYCLONE 07S MAY APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR BINARY
INTERACTION TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK. DESPITE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, KENANGA IS LIKELY AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS SST
SUPPORT WEAKENS. BY TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE WITH
NAVGEM, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURNING LESS SHARPLY WESTWARD
THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE MORE WESTWARD GROUPING WHICH INCLUDES THE
ECMWF, GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE BI-FURCATION
SCENARIO AND INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF BINARY INTERACTION IS
DECREASING THE JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE, NOW ASSESSED AS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190034

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.8 S / 82.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 310 SO: 310 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5

SUITE A L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 00UTC, KENANGA EST CLASSE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL BIEN DEFINI S'EST
CONSERVE AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES. L'OEIL EST ENCORE
CATEGORISE EN GROS OEIL BIEN QU'IL CONTINUE DE SE CONTRACTER
LENTEMENT. LA CONVECTION EST ASSEZ SYMETRIQUE PAR RAPPORT AU CENTRE
AVEC UNE LEGERE EXTENSION DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE N'A PAS EVOLUE. MALGRE UNE PETITE
ORIENTATION SUD-SUD-OUEST SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES, KENANGA CONSERVE
UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN. AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE
DORSALE PAR LE SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE DORSALE
VERS L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA COURBURE VERS LE SUD-OUEST.
LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO
MAIS L'INCERTITUDE PERSISTE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI LIA E A UN DECALAGE
EN LATITUDE DES POSITIONS PREVUES. LA PREVISION DU CMRS CONTINUE
D'ECARTER LE SCENARIO DU MODELE DETERMINISTE IFS QUI MAINTIENT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OUEST ALORS QUE SA VERSION ENSEMBLISTE REJOINT LES
AUTRES MODELES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, KENANGA SE DEPLACE VERS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET CONTINUE DE BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT FAIBLE, CE QUI A PERMET A KENANGA D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE A 00UTC. PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS
D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES SE DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST MODEREE CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE AMENANT
KENANGA AU SUD DE 18S LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN SERA BIEN
MOINDRE FAVORISANT L'AFFAIBLISSMENT DU SYSTEME TROPICAL, QUI
COMMENCERA A SE COMBLER A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 82.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 310 SW: 310 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/19 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

FOLLOWING THE 00UTC DVORAK ANALYSIS, KENANGA IS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE WELL-DEFINED EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE EYE IS STILL CLASSIFIED AS A LARGE EYE
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO CONTRACT SLOWLY. THE CONVECTION IS QUITE
SYMMETRICAL COMPARED TO THE CENTRE WITH A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT VERY EVOLVED. DESPITE A WEAK
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ORIENTATION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, KENANGA
MAINTAINS A SOUTH-WEST SHIFT UNTIL TOMORROW. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND WESTWARD FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
START ITS CURVATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT THE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS GREATER FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS DUE TO A LATITUDE GAP. THE RMSC
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO DISCARD THE DETERMINISTIC IFS MODEL
SCENARIO, WHICH MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY WHILE ITS
ENSEMBLE VERSION JOINS THE OTHER MODELS.

ON THIS TRACK, KENANGA MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED KENANGA TO REACH THE THRESHOLD OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT
00UTC. THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSION. AT THE END OF THE TERM,
WITH A TRACK LEADING KENANGA SOUTH OF 18S THE OCEAN'S ENERGY
POTENTIAL WILL BE MUCH LOWER, FAVOURING THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL START TO BE FILLED UP FROM SUNDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190011
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 82.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 12 UTC:
16.5 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 182100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218192837
2018121818 06S KENANGA 013 01 225 08 SATL 020
T000 153S 0832E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 161S 0825E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 165S 0820E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 166S 0815E 085 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 164S 0805E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 166S 0787E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 175S 0772E 060 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 187S 0757E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218192837
2018121818 06S KENANGA 013 01 225 08 SATL 020
T000 153S 0832E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 161S 0825E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 165S 0820E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 166S 0815E 085 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 164S 0805E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 166S 0787E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 175S 0772E 060 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 187S 0757E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.7S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121800 138S 848E 75
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121806 142S 843E 80
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121812 147S 838E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
0618121818 153S 832E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.7S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH SHOWS THE ANNULAR TC HAS A ROUND, 44-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LIGHT (10-15
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE ORIENTATION OF THIS STR WILL DICTATE THE TRACK,
STEERING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, WESTWARD BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 72, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 120.
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER CYCLONE (CURRENTLY
92S) MAY APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR BINARY INTERACTION TO INFLUENCE
THE TRACK. CONSISTENT WITH TYPICAL ANNULAR CYCLONES, THE INTENSITY
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND BEGINS. BY TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE MOST
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE
WITH NAVGEM, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURNING LESS SHARPLY
WESTWARD THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE MORE WESTWARD ATTRACTOR WHICH
INCLUDES THE ECMWF, GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. DESPITE
THE BIFURCATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
BECAUSE THE SPREAD IS ONLY 250 NM BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z,
190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181835

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 83.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 310 SO: 310 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5

LE CYCLONE KENANGA CONSERVE UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL BIEN DEFINI DE
GRANDE TAILLE MAIS SE COMPACTANT LEGEREMENT DEPUIS LES DEUX DERNIERES
HEURES. LA CONVECTION NE MONTRE PAS DE FAIBLESSE TRADUISANT ENCORE UN
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION ET AUCUN SIGNE DE CYCLE DE L'OEIL.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU : KENANGA DEVRAIT MAINTENIR
SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN. AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'UNE DORSALE PAR LE SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR. AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE CETTE
DORSALE VERS L'EST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN PEU PLUTOT SA
COURBURE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LES PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT
EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO MAIS L'INCERTITUDE RESTE PLUS IMPORTANTE A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI LIA E A UN DA CALAGE EN LATITUDE DES POSITIONS
PREVUES. CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ECARTE UN PEU PLUS LE SENARIO
DU MODELE DETERMINISTE IFS QUI MAINTIENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OUEST
ALORS QUE SA VERSION ENSEMBLISTE REJOINT LES AUTRES MODELES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, KENANGA SE DEPLACE VERS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET VA BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE. KENANGA DEVRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE MERCREDI. PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS
D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES SE DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
OUEST MODEREE CONDUISANT A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT, ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE AMENANT
KENANGA AU SUD DE 18S LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN SERA BIEN
MOINDRE FAVORISANT L'AFFAIBLISSMENT DU SYSTEME TROPICAL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181835

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 83.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 310 SW: 310 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/19 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

THE CYCLONE KENANGA MAINTAINS A WELL-DEFINED EYE PATTERN WITH A LARGE
SIZE BUT HAS COMPACTED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST TWO HOURS. CONVECTION
SHOWS NO WEAKNESS, INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AND NO
SIGN OF A EYE'S REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT VERY EVOLVED: KENANGA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND WESTWARD FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH
THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD START ITS
CURVATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST A LITTLE EARLIER. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GREATER FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS DUE TO A LATITUDE
GAP. THIS TRACK PREDICTION FURTHER DIVERGES FROM THE DETERMINISTIC
IFS MODEL SCENARIO, WHICH MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY WHILE
ITS ENSEMBLE VERSION JOINS THE OTHER MODELS.

ON THIS TRACK, KENANGA MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH A
MODERATE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM,
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR INTRUSION. AT THE END OF THE TERM, WITH A
TRACK LEADING KENANGA SOUTH OF 18S THE OCEAN'S ENERGY POTENTIAL WILL
BE MUCH LOWER, FAVOURING THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181812
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 83.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 06 UTC:
16.3 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 18 UTC:
16.7 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.5S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC
AND ANNULAR AS IT DEVELOPED A DEFINED 40-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL
ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
(92S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. IN THE NEAR
TERM, TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND
INCREASING VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 50
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SPREADING AFTER TAU 48 TO A SPAN OF OVER 180 NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP TO
TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 181500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218123449
2018121812 06S KENANGA 012 01 220 06 SATL 020
T000 148S 0837E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 157S 0827E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 162S 0821E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 165S 0816E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 166S 0809E 085 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 167S 0790E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 175S 0777E 065 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 184S 0762E 050 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218123449
2018121812 06S KENANGA 012 01 220 06 SATL 020
T000 148S 0837E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 157S 0827E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 162S 0821E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 165S 0816E 090 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 166S 0809E 085 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 167S 0790E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 175S 0777E 065 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 184S 0762E 050 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.5S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 70
0618121800 138S 848E 70
0618121800 138S 848E 70
0618121806 143S 841E 75
0618121806 143S 841E 75
0618121806 143S 841E 75
0618121812 148S 837E 90
0618121812 148S 837E 90
0618121812 148S 837E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181226

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 83.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :50 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 200 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DE KANANGA A
EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UN SYSTEME ANNULAIR. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE
UN OEIL DE GRANDE TAILLE QUI DEVIENT DE MIEUX EN MIEUX DEFINI.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT : KENANGA DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN
L'ABSENCE DE DORSALE AU SUD. MERCREDI SOIR, LE SYTEME DEVRAIT
INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'ACTION D'UNE DORSALE
MOBILE DE BASSES/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI TRANSITE AU SUD DU SYSTEME.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, AVEC LE DA CALAGE DE LA DORSALE VERS L'EST, LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU RECOURBER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LES
PRINCIPAUX MODA LES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO MAIS
L'INCERTITUDE DEVIENT PLUS IMPORTANTE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI LIA E A UN
DA CALAGE EN LATITUDE DES POSITIONS PREVUES. LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE EST UN CONSENSUS DE GFS ET CEP.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, KENANGA SE DEPLACE VERS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET VA BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE. MAIS L'ABSENCE DE PUISSANTS CANAUX D'EVACUATION
DEVRAIT LIMITER L'INTENSIFICATION AU STADE SUPERIEUR DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES
SE DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST MODEREE CONDUISANT
A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUANT AU
SUD DE 18S AMENERAIT LA TEMPETE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
PLUS FAIBLE CE QUI RENFORCERAIT ALORS SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181226

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 83.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :50 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 200 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/19 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/19 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0


OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, KANANGA CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED
PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD AN ANNULAR CYCLONE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
EYE MORE AND MORE WELL-DEFINED.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST : KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEND WESTWARD STEERING BY A LOW/MID LEVEL MOBILE RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF KENANGA. FROM SATURDAY, WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFTING OF THE RIDGE, KENANGA SHOULD CURVE PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTHWESTWARD. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT FROM SATURDAY UNCERTAINTY IS
INCREASING DUE TO A LATITUDE GAP. CURRENTLY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODELS

ON THIS TRACK, KENANGA MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BUT WITHOUT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AT THE UPPER
STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. FROM THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT LEADING
TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. AT LONGER RANGE, IN CASE OF A TRACK
SOUTH OF 18S, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL COULD BECOME INSUFFICIENT AND
LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 83.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 00 UTC:
16.1 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 12 UTC:
16.6 S / 81.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218064330
2018121806 06S KENANGA 011 01 235 08 SATL 025
T000 143S 0841E 075 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 165 SE QD
145 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 152S 0830E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 159S 0821E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 162S 0814E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 165S 0807E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 166S 0790E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 172S 0778E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 180S 0764E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218064330
2018121806 06S KENANGA 011 01 235 08 SATL 025
T000 143S 0841E 075 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 165 SE QD 145 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 152S 0830E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 159S 0821E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 162S 0814E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 165S 0807E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 166S 0790E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 172S 0778E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 180S 0764E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.9S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.0S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 83.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 138S 848E 70
0618121800 138S 848E 70
0618121800 138S 848E 70
0618121806 143S 841E 75
0618121806 143S 841E 75
0618121806 143S 841E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.9S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.0S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 83.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC AS IT
DEVELOPED AN OCCLUDED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
OCCLUDED EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD
AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAUS 12-24 TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER
DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE
REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 48 TO A SPAN OF OVER 300 NM BY TAU 120. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP
TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180617

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/4/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 84.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 19/12/2018 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, UN OEIL DE GRANDE DIMENSION ET
DECHIQUETE EST APPARU SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES. LES IMAGES SUCCESSIVES
DE LA NUIT LAISSENT A PENSER QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT AVOIR EFFECTUE
UN CYCLE DU MUR DE L'OEIL MALGRE SA MODESTE INTENSITE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ALORS CONNAA TRE UNE INTENSIFICTION PLUS RAPIDE DANS LES
HEURES A VENIR. LE SYSTEME ARBORE MAINTENANT UNE STRUCTURE BIEN SYMA
TRIQUE TRADUISANT UNE INFLUENCE EN BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ONT ETE REVUES GRA CE AUX DERNIA RES
PASSES ASCAT ET SMAP.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT : KENANGA DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN
L'ABSENCE DE DORSALE AU SUD. SUITE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE SON
INTENSITE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE ET ORIENTER LE
DEPLACEMENT DE KENANGA VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ACCOMPAGNE
D'UN RALENTISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE AVEC
LA POSSIBLE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD DU SYSTEME. GFS ET IFS
DIVERGENT TOUJOURS, MAIS LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES ET AU SEIN
DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE SEMBLE DIMINUER. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE EST
UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, KENANGA SE DEPLACE VERS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET VA BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
PLUS EN PLUS FAIBLE. MAIS L'ABSENCE DE PUISSANTS CANAUX D'EVACUATION
DEVRAIT LIMITER L'INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. A
PARTIR DE JEUDI, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SONT PRA VUES SE DEGRADER
AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FAIBLE A MODEREE CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS AU MOINS. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUANT AU SUD DE 18S AMENERAIT LA
TEMPETE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGITIQUE PLUS FAIBLE CE QUI
RENFORCERAIT ALORS SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180617

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 560 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/18 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/19 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE FORMATION OF A
LARGE RAGGED EYE. SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERIES DURING THE NIGHT
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE UNDERGO AN ERC DESPITE ITS MODEST
INTENSITY. SO KENANGA MAY INTENSIFY FASTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW MORE SYMETRIC DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INFLUENCE. ACCORDING WITH THE LAST ASCAT AND SMAP
SWATHS, ASSESSMENTS OF WIND EXTENSIONS ARE UPDATED.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST : KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE WILL
CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO GO DOWN WHICH SHOULD ORIENT THE TRACK
WESTWARD, WITH A SLOWDOWN. FOR THE LATEST RANGES, UNCERTAINTY IS
INCREASING WITH THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH. GFS AND
IFS STILL SUGGEST DIVERGENT SCENARIO BUT DISPERSION AMONG THE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO DECREASE. PRESENTE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE.

ON THIS TRACK, KENANGA MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BUT WITHOUT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. FROM THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT. A SLOW
WEAKENING IS AT FIRST FORECAST. AT LONGER RANGE, IN CASE OF A TRACK
SOUTH OF 18S, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL COULD BECOME INSUFFICIENT AND
LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180606
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (KENANGA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 84.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 190 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 83.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 06 UTC:
15.8 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218010149
2018121800 06S KENANGA 010 01 230 09 SATL 030
T000 136S 0847E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD
115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 145S 0834E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 155 SE QD
135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 154S 0824E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 159S 0818E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 161S 0812E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 162S 0796E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 166S 0779E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 172S 0765E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181218010149
2018121800 06S KENANGA 010 01 230 09 SATL 030
T000 136S 0847E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 145S 0834E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 155 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 154S 0824E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 159S 0818E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 161S 0812E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 162S 0796E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 166S 0779E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 172S 0765E 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.1S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.2S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121800 136S 847E 70
0618121800 136S 847E 70
0618121800 136S 847E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.1S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.2S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ANIMATED
IMAGERY REVEALED BRIEF PERIODS WHERE AN EYE APPEARED TO BE FORMING,
ONLY TO BE OBSCURED AGAIN A FRAME OR TWO LATER. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 172235Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING EYEWALL. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-T4.5 (65-77 KTS). TC 06S
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 06S MAY
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND,
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (CURRENTLY 92S) TO THE WEST. TC 06S
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. DESPITE GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BECAUSE THE
SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180034

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 84.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/12/2018 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 19/12/2018 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
MARQUEE PRES DU CENTRE DE KENANGA. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE SEMBLE
EXCELLENTE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES. LES DONNEES COMPLETES DES
PASSES ASCAT DE 1554Z AINSI QUE LA PASSE MICRO-ONDE FY3C DE 1538Z
POURRAIENT INDIQUER QUE L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DE 18Z SOIT UN PEU
CONSERVATIVE. AINSI ET AU VU DE L'EVOLUTION ATTENDUE, L'INTENSITE A
ETE REHAUSSE A 60KT. LA POSITION DU CENTRE DE KENANGA POURRAIT ETRE
PLUS A L'EST, AU SEIN DES 25 MN D'INCERTITUDE COMME SUGGERE PAR LES
DERNIERES INFRAROUGES (POINT CHAUD) ET LA PASSE TARDIVE SSMIS 2235Z.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT : KENANGA DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN EN
L'ABSENCE DE DORSALE AU SUD. SUITE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE SON
INTENSITE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT DESCENDRE ET ORIENTER LE
DEPLACEMENT DE KENANGA VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ACCOMPAGNE
D'UN RALENTISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE AVEC
LA POSSIBLE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD DU SYSTEME. GFS ET IFS
DIVERGENT TOUJOURS, MAIS LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES ET AU SEIN
DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE SEMBLE DIMINUER. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE EST
UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DETERMINISTES ET ENSEMBLISTES.

AUJOURD'HUI, KENANGA DEVRAIT BENEFICIER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES A
SON DEVELOPEMENT. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ENVISAGE EN COURS
DE JOURNEE. PAR LA SUITE, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE POURRAIENT SE
DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FAIBLE A MODEREE CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS AU MOINS. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUANT AU SUD DE 18S AMENERAIT LA
TEMPETE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL ENERGITIQUE FAIBLE CE QUI
RENFORCERAIT ALORS SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180034

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 84.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/18 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/19 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/19 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED STRONG CLOSE TO
KENANGA CORE. UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS EXCELLENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
COMPLETE DATA FROM 1554Z ASCAT SWATH AND 1538Z FY3C MICROWAVE COULD
INDICATE THAT THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATION WAS PROBABLY
CONSERVATIVE. THEREFORE AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED TREND, CURRENT
INTENSITY IS UPGRADED TO 60KT. KENANGA CENTER IS LIKELY AT EAST FROM
THE 00Z ESTIMATION WITHIN THE 25NM UNCERTAINTY RANGE, ACCORDING TO
LATEST INFRARED DATA AND LATE 2235Z SSMIS.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST : KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE WILL
CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO GO DOWN WHICH SHOULD ORIENT THE TRACK
WESTWARD, WITH A SLOWDOWN. FOR THE LATEST RANGES, UNCERTAINTY IS
INCREASING WITH THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH. GFS AND
IFS STILL SUGGEST DIVERGENT SCENARIO BUT DISPERSION AMONG THE
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO DECREASE. PRESENTE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE.

TODAY, KENANGA WILL BENEFIT FROM A CONDUCIVE UPPER ENVIRONMENT. IT
SHOULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. THEN, UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE
WESTERLY CONSTRAINT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS AT FIRST FORECAST. AT LONGER
RANGE, IN CASE OF A TRACK SOUTH OF 18S, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL COULD
BECOME INSUFFICIENT AND LEAD TO A STRONGER WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180018
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 18/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 84.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 172100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217193403
2018121718 06S KENANGA 009 01 250 11 SATL 040
T000 130S 0854E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD
110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 139S 0838E 070 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
130 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 148S 0827E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 155S 0819E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 158S 0812E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 158S 0798E 070 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 161S 0781E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 166S 0766E 045 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 172100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217193403
2018121718 06S KENANGA 009 01 250 11 SATL 040
T000 130S 0854E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 139S 0838E 070 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 148S 0827E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 155S 0819E 080 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 158S 0812E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 158S 0798E 070 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 161S 0781E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 166S 0766E 045 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.8S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
0618121718 130S 854E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.8S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT SPIRAL RAIN BANDS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 171557Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A CLEAR
CENTER AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVELS ARE OVERALL FAVORABLE
WITH DECENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVERCOMING
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06S WILL TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
AS IT FOLLOWS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSTANTLY RE-ORIENTING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 06S MAY
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND
TROPICAL CYCLONE (CURRENTLY 92S) TO THE WEST. DESPITE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE THE SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE WITH THE UNCERTAIN
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171857

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 85.4 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 190 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/12/2018 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 19/12/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.3 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5+

L'ASPECT SATELLITAIRE DE KENANGA A PEU EVOLUE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
HEURES AVEC LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CDO AU NORD IMMEDIAT DU CENTRE ET
D'UNE BANDE PERIPHERIQUE LOINTAINE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.
L'INTENSITE N'A DONC PAS ETE AUGMENTEE, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LES DONNEES
PRELIMINAIRES DES PASSES ASCAT DE 16Z N'ONT PAS MONTRE DE VENTS
SUPERIEURES A 40KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES EXTENSIONS ONT PAR
CONTRE ETE AJUSTEES AVEC CES NOUVELLES DONNEES. LA STRUCTURE EN
ALTITUDE DE KENANGA SEMBLE TOUJOURS LIMITER SON DEVELOPPEMENT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT : KENANGA DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A MERCREDI EN
L'ABSENCE DE DORSALE AU SUD. SUITE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE SON
INTENSITE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DESCENDRE ET ORIENTER LE DEPLACEMENT DE
KENANGA VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE JEUDI, ACCOMPAGNE D'UN
RALENTISSEMENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, L'INCERTITUDE AUGMENTE AVEC LA
POSSIBLE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD DU SYSTEME. GFS PROPOSE ALORS
UNE EVACUATION VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES TANDIS QUE IFS LE FAIT
POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE INITIALE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION S'APPUIE
SUR UN CONSENSUS DE CES DEUX SCENARIOS EN ACCORD AVEC LA MOYENNE DE
LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE EUROPEENNE.

LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DEVRIAT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR ET PERMETTRE
AINSI AU SYSTEME DE TERMINER LA CONSOLIDATION DE SA STRUCTURE EN
ALTITUDE. DEMAIN, KENANGA POURRAIT CONNAITRE UNE ACCELERATION DE SON
CREUSEMENT. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ENVISAGE AU PIC DE SON
INTENSITE. PAR LA SUITE, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE POURRAIENT SE
DEGRADER AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FAIBLE A MODEREE CONDUISANT A
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUANT
AU SUD DE 18S AMENERAIT LA TEMPETE SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL
ENERGITIQUE FAIBLE CE QUI RENFORCERAIT ALORS SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171857

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 85.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/18 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 83.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/18 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/19 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

KENANGA'S CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED OVER THE LAST HOURS, WITH A
CDO JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AND A PERIPHERAL BAND IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. INTENSITY WAS THUS NOT UPGRADED, ALL THE MORE, EARLY 16Z
ASCAT DATA SHOW NO MORE THAN 40KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED WITH THESE DATA. KENANGA UPPER STRUCTURE
SEEMS TO BE STILL HINDERING ITS DEVELOPMENT


NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST : KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE WILL
CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO GO DOWN WHICH SHOULD ORIENT THE TRACK
WESTWARD, WITH BY A SLOWDOWN. FOR THE LATEST RANGES, UNCERTAINTY IS
INCREASING WITH THE POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH. GFS
SUGGEST AN EVACUTATION TOWARDS THE MIDLATITUDES, WHEREAS IFS
SIMULATION STAYS ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THESES SCENARIOS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ON DECAYING, ALLOWING KENANGA TO END
THE BUILDING OF ITS UPPER CIRCULATION. TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM MAY THEN
UNDERGO A QUICKER DEEPENING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS STILL
FORECAST. THEN, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY CONSTRAINT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS THUS
FORECAST. AT LONGER RANGE, IN CASE OF A TRACK SOUTH OF 18S, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL COULD BECOME INSUFFICIENT AND LEAD TO A STRONGER
WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171826
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 85.4 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 82.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 171500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217141639
2018121712 06S KENANGA 008 01 250 11 SATL 030
T000 126S 0864E 060 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 134S 0848E 065 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 143S 0836E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 150S 0827E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 155S 0820E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 159S 0804E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 161S 0781E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 164S 0758E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 171500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217141639
2018121712 06S KENANGA 008 01 250 11 SATL 030
T000 126S 0864E 060 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 134S 0848E 065 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 143S 0836E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 150S 0827E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 155S 0820E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 159S 0804E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 161S 0781E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 164S 0758E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.0S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121706 122S 874E 55
0618121712 126S 864E 60
0618121712 126S 864E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.0S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE
WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. A 170944Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBLONG MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERGAE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55
KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA
WILL TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z,
180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171230

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 86.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SW: 320 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/18 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/18 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/19 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/19 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

KENANGA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS IN SHEARED PATTERN BUT THIS ONE WILL
CHANGE TO CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN. IN AN WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS DATA, THE SYSTEM WILL RESIST DUE
TO ITS DISPLACEMENT WHICH WILL ACCELERATE SOON. THE THRESHOLD OF
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN REACHED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS WELL, APPROACHING THIS CENTER. THE ABSENCE OF
MEASUREMENTS DON'T ALLOW A GOOD ESTIMATION OF WIND EXTENSIONS.

NO CHANGE IN FORECASTING : KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE WILL
CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO COME BACK DOWN WITHIN LOWER LEVELS WHICH
SHOULD ORIENT THE KENANGA'S TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLOWDOWN. THE ENSEMBLIST FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF MODEL TENDS A LITTLE
MORE TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE DETERMINISTIC VERSION, WHICH STILL HAS A MORE WESTERN COMPONENT
IN THE TRACK. THE CMRS FORECASTS REMAINS ON A WESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED
BY A SOUTH-WESTERLY ORIENTATION FROM FRIDAY.

KENANGA'S SPEED ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS THE INTENSITY PEAK FROM WEDNESDAY. LATER, THE
UPPER CONDITIONS START DETERIORATING AND ALTHOUGH IT FLOWS OVER
WATERS THAT STILL HAVE SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL NORTH OF 18AOS, A
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A PRIORITY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171230

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/4/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.9 S / 86.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SO: 320 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 19/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

KENANGA CONSERVE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE MAIS CELLE-CI
TEND A MIGRER VERS UNE CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE.
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ENCORE CISAILLE D'APRES LES DONNES DU CIMSS, LE
SYSTEME VA BIEN RESISTER GRACE A SON DEPLACEMENT QUI VA S'ACCELERER
PROCHAINEMENT. LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A ETE ATTEINT AU
COURS DE SES DERNIERES 6 HEURES ET LA CONVECTION PROFONDE PERSISTE
BIEN, SE RAPPROCHANT DU CENTRE. L'ABSENCE DE PASSES ASCAT SUR LE
SYSTEME RESTE UNE GENE POUR L'ESTIMATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS.

LA PREVISION N'A PAS EVOLUEE AVEC LES NOUVEAUX RESEAUX : KENANGA
DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A MERCREDI.
SUITE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE SON INTENSITE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DES
BAS NIVEAUX DEVRAIT ORIENTER LE DEPLACEMENT DE KENANGA VERS L'OUEST A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, ACCOMPAGNE D'UN RALENTISSEMENT. LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE DU MODELE EUROPEEN TEND UN PEU PLUS VERS LE CONSENSUS DES
AUTRES MODELES, A L'EXCEPTION DE LA VERSION DETERMINISTE QUI GARDE
ENCORE UNE COMPOSANTE PLUS OUEST. L'OPTION DU CMRS RESTE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE OUEST SUIVIE D'UNE ORIENTATION S'ORIENTANT SUD-OUEST A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI.

LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE KENANGA LUI PERMET DE COMPENSER LES
EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC
CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS DEVENANT
PLUS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A MERCREDI. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST
ENVISAGE AU PIC DE SON INTENSITE POUR MERCREDI. PAR LA SUITE, LES
CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE DEGRADENT ET LES PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE
CONTINUENT DE PRIVILEGIER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME,
CIRCULANT SUR DES EAUX AYANT ENCORE UN POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
SUFFISANT AU NORD DE 18AOSUD.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171213
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 86.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE EASTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 00 UTC:
14.1 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217080242
2018121706 06S KENANGA 007 01 230 13 SATL 060
T000 125S 0872E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 134S 0854E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 144S 0840E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 152S 0830E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 158S 0823E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 163S 0809E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 165S 0786E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 166S 0763E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.4S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217080242
2018121706 06S KENANGA 007 01 230 13 SATL 060
T000 125S 0872E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 134S 0854E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 144S 0840E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 152S 0830E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 158S 0823E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 163S 0809E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 165S 0786E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 166S 0763E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.4S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.3S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 927 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121612 106S 899E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121618 111S 889E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121700 117S 882E 50
0618121706 125S 872E 55
0618121706 125S 872E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.4S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.3S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 927 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 170241Z GMI COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING
OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA WILL TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48 TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170621

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 87.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SO: 320 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 90 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/12/2018 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/12/2018 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 19/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5-;CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE KENANGA RESTE SOUS LA FORME D'UNE
STRUCTURE FAIBLEMENT CISAILLEE (LE CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE EST DE
L'ORDRE DE 10/15KT), VOIRE EN BANDE INCURVEE. LE SEUIL DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE N'EST PAS ENCORE ATTEINT MAIS LE MAINTIEN DE LA
CONVECTION LAISSE SUPPOSER QUE LA STRUCTURE VERTICALE SE CONSOLIDE,
AVANT UNE INTENSIFICATION PROCHAINE. LES DERNIERES PASSES ASCAT NE
PERMETTENT MALHEUREUSEMENT PAS D'AMELIORER LES ESTIMATIONS
D'EXTENSIONS DE VENT QUI RESTENT ENCORE PEU PRECISES.

KENANGA DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
MERCREDI. A PARTIR DE CETTE ECHEANCE, PRESENTANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE SON INTENSITE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DES BAS NIVEAUX DEVRAIT ORIENTER
LE DEPLACEMENT DE KENANGA VERS L'OUEST, ACCOMPAGNE D'UN
RALENTISSEMENT. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
DIVERGE ENTRE LES MODELES ET L'OPTION D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS OUEST
SUIVIE D'UNE ORIENTATION S'ORIENTANT SUD-OUEST EST PRIVILEGIEE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES ECHEANCES, LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE
KENANGA DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT
DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A MERCREDI. LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL EST ACTUELLEMENT ENVISAGE AU PIC D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE DEGRADENT ET LES PREVISIONS
D'INTENSITE SE DIFFERENCIENT A MOYEN TERME ENTRE LES MODELES, EN LIEN
AVEC LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRES : UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU
SYSTEME EST LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170621

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 87.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SW: 320 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/17 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/18 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/18 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/19 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5-;CI=3.5-

KENANGA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS IN SHEARED STRUCTURE (WHICH IS WEAK,
SHEAR ANALYSIS IN THE ORDER OF 10/15KT), OR EVEN IN A CURVED BAND.
THE THRESHOLD OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT YET BEEN REACHED BUT
THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL
STRUCTURE IS CONSOLIDATING, BEFORE A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LATEST ASCAT SWATH DO NOT ALLOW TO IMPROVE THE
WIND EXTENSION ESTIMATES, WHICH ARE STILL RATHER IMPRECISE.

KENANGA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWEST TRACK UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO COME
BACK DOWN WITHIN LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD ORIENT THE KENANGA'S TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLOWDOWN. LATER, THE TRACK
PREDICTION DIVERGES BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODELS AND THE OPTION OF A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTERN ORIENTATION IS
PREFERRED.

IN THE SHORT TERM, KENANGA'S SPEED SHOULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE
EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS THE INTENSITY PEAK. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE UPPER CONDITIONS START DETERIORATING AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS DIFFER IN THE MEDIUM TERM BETWEEN MODELS, LIKE
FOR TRACK'S FORECAST : A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170608
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 87.6 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE EASTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/17 AT 18 UTC:
13.7 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 06 UTC:
15.0 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217012129
2018121700 06S KENANGA 006 01 215 18 SATL 025
T000 124S 0877E 050 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 135S 0861E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 144S 0847E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 152S 0838E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 161S 0827E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 166S 0814E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 166S 0795E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 167S 0779E 045 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181217012129
2018121700 06S KENANGA 006 01 215 18 SATL 025
T000 124S 0877E 050 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 135S 0861E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 144S 0847E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 152S 0838E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 161S 0827E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 166S 0814E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 166S 0795E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 167S 0779E 045 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.6S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 953 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 103S 903E 50
0618121612 103S 903E 50
0618121618 109S 888E 50
0618121618 109S 888E 50
0618121700 124S 877E 50
0618121700 124S 877E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.6S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 953 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT BUT
MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 162259Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.0-T3.7. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS SECONDARY BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING
VWS AND BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170053

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 88.8 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SO: 320 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 90 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/12/2018 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 19/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0+;CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE KENANGA EST REPASSEE D'UNE BANDE
INCURVEE A UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE. LE CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE PAR LE
CIMSS EST TOUJOURS DE L'ORDRE DE 10/15 KT. LES IMAGES MICROONDES DE
LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 1951Z MONTRENT CEPENDANT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE
DU SYSTEME EST EN AMELIORATION. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES
DIFFUSOMETRIQUES RECENTES, LES ESTIMATIONS D'EXTENSIONS DE VENT
RESTENT ENCORE PEU PRECISES.

KENANGA CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST, SANS DORSALE BIEN
MARQUEE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN LIEN AVEC LE DEBUT D'UNE
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REVENIR DANS LES
BAS NIVEAUX, OU LA CEINTURE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES RESTE
SOLIDE AU SUD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS RALENTIR ET REDRESSER
GRADUELLEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS VERS L'OUEST.

LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DE KENANGA DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE
COMPENSER LES EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST,
TOUT EN BENEFICIANT D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC
S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A
MARDI SOIR. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ACTUELLEMENT ENVISAGE AU
PIC D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE
DEGRADENT AVEC LA DISPARITION DE LA DIVERGENCE. KENANGA SE TROUVE
ALORS EN BORDURE NORD D'UN FORT FLUX D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR OUEST ET
EN BORDURE OUEST DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE. DES
LORS, DANS CETTE SITUATION INTERMEDIAIRE, LES DIFFERENTS MODELES
DISPONIBLES N'EVALUENT PAS LE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE LA MEME FACON
AU NIVEAU DU SYSTEME, CE QUI ABOUTIT A DES PREVISIONS D'INTENSITE
ASSEZ DIFFERENTES A MOYEN TERME. EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, DE L'AIR SEC
ENTOURE LE SYSTEME. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME EST LE
SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE BASE SUR LE CONSENSUS ICNW, QUI SEMBLE
ETRE LE PLUS COHERENT AVEC L'EVALUATION SUBJECTIVE DE
L'ENVIRONNEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170053

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 88.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SW: 320 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/17 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/18 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/18 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/19 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/19 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=3.5-

KENANGA'S CLOUD PATTERN SHIFTED FROM A CURVED BAND TO A SHEARED
PATTERN AGAIN. CIMSS STILL ESTIMATE WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10/15 KT.
HOWEVER, THE MW IMAGES FROM THE 1951Z AMSR2 SWATH SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT
IN THE SYSTEM'S INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. WITH NO RECENT SCATT DATA, THE
WIND EXTENSIONS ESTIMATES REMAIN RATHER IMPRECISE.

KENANGA KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHWESTWARD, WITH NO WELL-DEFINED RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE WILL CAUSE
THE STEERING FLOW TO COME BACK DOWN WITHIN LOWER LEVELS, WHERE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT REMAINS STRONG IN THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS THUS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING
WESTWARD.

THE SYSTEM'S SPEED SHOULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE EFFECTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, WHILE STILL BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
DIVERGENCE. KENANGA SHOULD THUS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS THE INTENSITY PEAK. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER
CONDITIONS START DETERIORATING WITH NO WELL-DEFINED DIVERGENCE
ANYMORE. AT THIS TIME, KENANGA SHOULD BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF A STRONG UPPER WESTERLY STREAM AND ON THE WESTERN BORDER OF
THE UPPER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THUS, WITHIN THIS INTERMEDIATE
SITUATION, THE AVAILABLE MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE SAME ESTIMATION OF
THE WIND SHEAR NEAR THE SYSTEM, WHICH GIVES RATHER DIFFERENT
INTENSITY FORECASTS AT MEDIUM TERM. ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
IS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM'S CORE. A SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE ICNW CONSENSUS WHICH
SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE SUBJECTIVE
EVALUATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 170014
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 17/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 88.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
175 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/17 AT 12 UTC:
13.3 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/18 AT 00 UTC:
14.6 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181216193815
2018121618 06S KENANGA 005 01 250 16 SATL 020
T000 109S 0888E 050 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 075 SE QD 125 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 122S 0873E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 133S 0858E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 141S 0846E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 149S 0836E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 157S 0819E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 159S 0798E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 161S 0780E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181216193815
2018121618 06S KENANGA 005 01 250 16 SATL 020
T000 109S 0888E 050 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 125 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 122S 0873E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 133S 0858E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 141S 0846E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 149S 0836E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 157S 0819E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 159S 0798E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 161S 0780E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.1S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.7S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 95S 910E 45
0618121612 103S 903E 50
0618121612 103S 903E 50
0618121618 109S 888E 50
0618121618 109S 888E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.1S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.7S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK BUT HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LOW
CHANNEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 161511Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTERWARD,
THE TC WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SECONDARY BUILDING STR. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 70
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER
SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA
WILL BE REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161827

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.2 S / 89.3 E
(ONZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SO: 320 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 90 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/12/2018 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/12/2018 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/12/2018 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 18/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 19/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5-

LE CENTRE DE KENANGA A DESORMAIS TOTALEMENT TRAVERSE LE 90E MERIDIEN.
LES IMAGES MICROONDES GPM DE 1511Z SUGGERENT QUE LE VORTEX DU SYSTEME
TEND A SE REDRESSER AVEC DES IMAGES 37GHZ ET 85GHZ MOINS DECALEES.
CEPENDANT, LA STRUCTURE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME RESTAIT ENCORE PEU
ORGANISEE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES IR SUGGERENT UN DEBUT D'ENROULEMENT
PLUS FRANC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. SANS DONNEES DIFFUSOMETRIQUES
DEPUIS PLUSIEURS RESEAUX, L'ESTIMATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT DEMEURE
IMPRECISE.

KENANGA A ENTAME SON ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST, SANS DORSALE
BIEN MARQUEE AU SUD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN LIEN AVEC UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REVENIR DANS LES BAS
NIVEAUX, OU LA CEINTURE DE HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES RESTE
SOLIDE AU SUD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS RALENTIR ET TOURNER
GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.

LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE
COMPENSER LES EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST,
TOUT EN BENEFICIANT D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE. KENANGA DEVRAIT DONC
S'INTENSIFIER GRADUELLEMENT DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES JUSQU'A
MARDI SOIR. LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EST ACTUELLEMENT ENVISAGE AU
PIC D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE SE
DEGRADENT AVEC L'APPARITION D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD. L'AIR
SEC EST EGALEMENT BIEN PRESENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET ENTOURE LE
SYSTEME. UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT ALORS DEBUTER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161827

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 89.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 320 SW: 320 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 90 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/17 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/17 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/18 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/18 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/19 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

KENANGA'S CENTER HAS NOW TOTALLY CROSSED THE 90TH MERIDIAN. 1512Z GPM
MW IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM'S VORTEX BECOMES LESS TILTED AS THE
85GHZ IMAGE IS LESS SHIFTED COMPARED TO THE 37GHZ. HOWEVER, THE INNER
CORE REMAINED POORLY ORGANIZED. THE LAST IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER ALSO IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. WITH NO SCATT DATA SINCE 24H, THE WIND EXTENSIONS
ESTIMATES REMAIN RATHER IMPRECISE.

KENANGA STARTED ITS SOUTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION, WITH NO WELL-DEFINED
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING PHASE
WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO COME BACK DOWN WITHIN LOWER LEVELS,
WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT REMAINS STRONG IN THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS THUS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD.

THE SYSTEM'S SPEED SHOULD ALLOW IT TO ESCAPE THE EFFECTS OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, WHILE STILL BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
DIVERGENCE. KENANGA SHOULD THUS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WIHIN CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS THE INTENSITY PEAK. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER
CONDITIONS START DETERIORATING WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR. DRY AIR IS ALSO SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IN THE MID-LEVELS.
A WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD THUS BEGIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 161816
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 89.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
175 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/17 AT 06 UTC:
12.3 S / 87.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/17 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.3S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.3S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.4S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.3S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 90.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1082 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161232Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA WILL TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48,
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE WITH COOLER SST AND WEAKER
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161356

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 90.4 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/12/2018 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/12/2018 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/12/2018 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 18/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 19/12/2018 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST, LE SYSTEME FORME IL Y PLUSIEURS JOURS,
S'EST LENTEMENT INTENSIFIE ET A ETE BAPTISE KENANGA PAR LE TCWC DE
JAKARTA HIER A 12Z. DEPUIS, KENANGA A COMMENCE A ACCELERE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, PERMETTANT UNE DIMINUTION DES EFFETS NEFASTES DE LA
CONTRAINTE. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT QUE LE CENTRE
S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT REPOSITIONNE SOUS LA CONVECTION. AINSI
L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE DE 40KT EST PEUT ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATIVE. LA
POSITION ACTUELLE, PAR MANQUE DE DONNEES QUALITATIVES, EST
PROBABLEMENT TROP A L'EST.

KENANGA A ENTAME SON ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN L'ABSENCE DE
DORSALE MARQUEE AU SUD. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REVENIR DANS LES BASSES
COUCHES, OU LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SONT PLUS PRESENTS. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS RALENTIR ET S'ORIENTER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, AU VU DE SON EVOLUTION RECENTE ET DE
L'AMELIORATION DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES,
KENANGA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE (+30KT EN 24KT) N'EST PAS EXCLUE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET LA
BONNE DIVERGENCE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. MARDI PUIS MERCREDI, LES
CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT SE DEGRADER AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MARGE DU JET D'OUEST
SUBTROPICAL. AU SEIN D'UNE MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONNANTE TRES SECHE, CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU MINIMUM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161356

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 90.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND NINETY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/17 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/17 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/18 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/18 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/19 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/19 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST HOURS, DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG EASTERLY
WIND SHEAR, THE CIRCULATION FORMED SEVERAL DAYS AGO, HAS SLOWLY
INTENSIFIED AND WAS NAMED KENANGA AT 12Z YESTERDAY, BY JAKARTA TCWC.
SINCE, KENANGA HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-WESTWARD, ALLOWING A
DIMINUITION OF THE SHEAR DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS. LAST MICROWAVE CONFIRM
THAT THE CENTER IS RELOCATING UNDER THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE,
CURRENT INTENSITY (40KT) MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. 12Z POSITION IS
ALSO UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE DATA, AND COULD BE IN
REALITY CLOSER TO 90E.

KENANGA STARTED ITS ACCELERATION SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
A STRONG RIDGE, AT SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY, IN RELATION WITH A WEAKENING
PHASE, THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN, AND BEND MORE WESTWARD.

FOR ITS INTENSITY, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND AND THE EXPECTED
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVEMENT, KENANGA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (+30KT IN 24H) IS POSSIBLE. OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. ON TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY WEDNESDAY, THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET. WITH A VERY DRY AIR
MASS SURROUNDING THE MINIMUM, THE CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED THUS TO LEAD
TO A STRONG WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO21 FMEE 161230
SECURITE
GALE WARNING
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 16/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (KENANGA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 90.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/17 AT 00 UTC:
11.7 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/17 AT 12 UTC:
12.9 S / 87.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181216070821
2018121606 06S KENANGA 003 01 215 07 SATL 060
T000 097S 0908E 045 R034 135 NE QD 205 SE QD 205 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 107S 0899E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 119S 0887E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 129S 0873E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 138S 0862E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 151S 0846E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 157S 0831E 045 R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 161S 0811E 035 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.7S 90.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181216070821
2018121606 06S KENANGA 003 01 215 07 SATL 060
T000 097S 0908E 045 R034 135 NE QD 205 SE QD 205 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 107S 0899E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 119S 0887E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 129S 0873E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 138S 0862E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 151S 0846E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 157S 0831E 045 R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 161S 0811E 035 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.7S 90.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 90.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.7S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.9S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.8S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.1S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.7S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 90.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1097 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
0618121600 91S 912E 40
0618121606 97S 908E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181215192019
2018121518 06S SIX 001 01 155 02 SATL 040
T000 089S 0912E 035 R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 096S 0911E 040 R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 109S 0901E 045 R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 121S 0885E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 132S 0872E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 151S 0854E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 159S 0845E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 163S 0824E 040 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 91.2E
---

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 142051DEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.6S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.9S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 181215192019
2018121518 06S SIX 001 01 155 02 SATL 040
T000 089S 0912E 035 R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 096S 0911E 040 R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 109S 0901E 045 R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 121S 0885E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 132S 0872E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 151S 0854E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 159S 0845E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 163S 0824E 040 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.6S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.9S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.2S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.1S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.9S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.3S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1116 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
0618121406 78S 929E 25
0618121412 80S 928E 25
0618121418 81S 922E 25
0618121500 82S 915E 25
0618121506 85S 911E 30
0618121512 87S 911E 30
0618121518 89S 912E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 142051DEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.6S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.9S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.2S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.1S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.9S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.3S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1116 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 151500Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH
30 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND AREAS OF 35 KT WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 06S IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS LIMITING ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS
IN TO THE REGION. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN FLIRT WITH THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS IT
MOVES DUE WESTWARD INTO DRIER AIR, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
DECREASE, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-NAVGEM,
WITH 320NM OF MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 96 NOT COUNTING COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND
SOME VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BEHIND AND SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE NEAR-TERM, TOWARDS THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS, TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOW CURRENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z,
161500Z AND 162100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 142100).//
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