Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-19 in , Japan, Korea, Republic of, Democratic People's Republic of, Russian Federation from 01 Aug 2019 18:00 UTC to 07 Aug 2019 06:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190807074847
2019080706 09W FRANCISCO 023 03 020 16 SATL SYNP 030
T000 396N 1293E 035 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 416N 1320E 035 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 428N 1356E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 432N 1405E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 39.6N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.6N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 41.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 42.8N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 43.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 40.1N 130.0E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
166 NM NORTHEAST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 14 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
0919080400 275N1431E 45
0919080406 285N1417E 45
0919080412 291N1397E 45
0919080418 299N1381E 50
0919080418 299N1381E 50
0919080500 304N1362E 55
0919080500 304N1362E 55
0919080506 308N1345E 55
0919080506 308N1345E 55
0919080512 312N1330E 65
0919080512 312N1330E 65
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080600 330N1309E 60
0919080600 330N1309E 60
0919080606 342N1299E 50
0919080606 342N1299E 50
0919080612 354N1293E 45
0919080618 368N1289E 40
0919080700 381N1286E 35
0919080706 396N1293E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 39.6N 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.6N 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 41.6N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 42.8N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 43.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 40.1N 130.0E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
166 NM NORTHEAST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS EXITED
INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT),
CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPOSED, WEAK, RAGGED, ELONGATED, BUT EXPANDING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN
THE SOJ. TS 09W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF
THE 500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12, BECOMING A
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT EMBEDS IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ITS REMNANTS WILL CROSS THE SOJ AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER HOKKAIDO BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190807012344
2019080700 09W FRANCISCO 022 03 350 13 SATL 060
T000 381N 1286E 035 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 401N 1300E 035 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 417N 1329E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 425N 1364E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 430N 1413E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 38.1N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.1N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 40.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 41.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 42.5N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 43.0N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 128.9E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
0919080400 275N1431E 45
0919080406 285N1417E 45
0919080412 291N1397E 45
0919080418 299N1381E 50
0919080418 299N1381E 50
0919080500 304N1362E 55
0919080500 304N1362E 55
0919080506 308N1345E 55
0919080506 308N1345E 55
0919080512 312N1330E 65
0919080512 312N1330E 65
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080600 330N1309E 60
0919080600 330N1309E 60
0919080606 342N1299E 50
0919080606 342N1299E 50
0919080612 354N1293E 45
0919080618 368N1289E 40
0919080700 381N1286E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 38.1N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.1N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 40.1N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 41.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 42.5N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 43.0N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 128.9E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
101 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 38N 129E
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 38N 129E
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 37.5N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 41.0N 132.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081800UTC 42.3N 138.0E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 37.5N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 41.0N 132.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081800UTC 42.3N 138.0E 75NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190806192732
2019080618 09W FRANCISCO 021 03 350 12 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 368N 1292E 040 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 391N 1299E 040 R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 409N 1319E 035 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 421N 1351E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 426N 1391E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 36.8N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 39.1N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 40.9N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 42.1N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 42.6N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 37.4N 129.4E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
102 NM NORTH OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z,
070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
0919080400 275N1431E 45
0919080406 285N1417E 45
0919080412 291N1397E 45
0919080418 299N1381E 50
0919080418 299N1381E 50
0919080500 304N1362E 55
0919080500 304N1362E 55
0919080506 308N1345E 55
0919080506 308N1345E 55
0919080512 312N1330E 65
0919080512 312N1330E 65
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080518 317N1319E 75
0919080600 330N1309E 60
0919080600 330N1309E 60
0919080606 345N1297E 50
0919080606 345N1297E 50
0919080612 356N1294E 45
0919080618 368N1292E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 36.8N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 36.8N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 40.6N 131.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081800UTC 42.3N 138.0E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 36.8N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 40.6N 131.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081800UTC 42.3N 138.0E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 1000 HPA
AT 36.8N 128.9E KOREA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 39.0N 129.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 40.6N 131.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 42.3N 138.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 35.8N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 40.3N 131.0E 40NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081200UTC 41.9N 136.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 35.8N 129.3E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 40.3N 131.0E 40NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081200UTC 41.9N 136.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 35.1N, 129.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 35.1N, 129.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED
RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 061200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 061200UTC 35.2N 129.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 35.1N 129.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 39.7N 130.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081200UTC 41.9N 136.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 35.1N 129.5E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 39.7N 130.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081200UTC 41.9N 136.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 998 HPA
AT 35.1N 129.5E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 38.1N 129.0E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 39.7N 130.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 41.9N 136.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060900UTC 34.5N 129.3E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 061200UTC 35.1N 128.9E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
06HR
POSITION 061500UTC 35.8N 128.7E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
09HR
POSITION 061800UTC 36.5N 128.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 34.5N 129.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 39.3N 129.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 080600UTC 41.6N 134.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 34.5N 129.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 39.3N 129.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 080600UTC 41.6N 134.7E 75NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 33.9N, 129.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT09. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE
ITS COURSE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 33.9N, 129.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT09. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE
ITS COURSE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060600UTC 33.9N 129.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 060900UTC 34.5N 129.0E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
06HR
POSITION 061200UTC 35.1N 128.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
09HR
POSITION 061500UTC 35.8N 128.6E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
12HR
POSITION 061800UTC 36.5N 128.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 33.9N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 38.9N 129.1E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 080600UTC 41.6N 134.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 33.9N 129.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 38.9N 129.1E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 080600UTC 41.6N 134.7E 75NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 996 HPA
AT 33.9N 129.8E SEA AROUND TUSHIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 36.6N 128.5E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 38.9N 129.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 41.6N 134.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060300UTC 33.3N 130.0E
MOVEMENT NW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 060600UTC 33.9N 129.4E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
06HR
POSITION 060900UTC 34.5N 129.0E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
09HR
POSITION 061200UTC 35.1N 128.8E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT
12HR
POSITION 061500UTC 35.8N 128.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
15HR
POSITION 061800UTC 36.5N 128.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
18HR
POSITION 062100UTC 37.2N 128.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 33.4N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 38.4N 128.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 080000UTC 41.4N 132.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 090000UTC 42.8N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 33.4N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 38.4N 128.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 080000UTC 41.4N 132.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 090000UTC 42.8N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 32.9N, 130.6E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE
ITS COURSE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060000UTC 32.8N 130.7E
MOVEMENT NW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 060300UTC 33.3N 130.1E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT
06HR
POSITION 060600UTC 33.9N 129.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
09HR
POSITION 060900UTC 34.3N 129.1E WITHIN 20NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
12HR
POSITION 061200UTC 34.8N 128.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
15HR
POSITION 061500UTC 35.4N 128.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
18HR
POSITION 061800UTC 36.0N 128.6E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
21HR
POSITION 062100UTC 36.7N 128.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 32.9N 130.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 37.8N 128.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 080000UTC 41.4N 132.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 090000UTC 42.8N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 32.9N 130.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 37.8N 128.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 080000UTC 41.4N 132.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 090000UTC 42.8N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 992 HPA
AT 32.9N 130.6E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 35.0N 128.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 37.8N 128.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 41.4N 132.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 42.8N 139.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 052100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 052100UTC 32.3N 131.4E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 060300UTC 33.0N 130.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
12HR
POSITION 060900UTC 34.1N 129.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 061500UTC 35.4N 128.7E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 062100UTC 36.7N 128.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 37KT
30HR
POSITION 070300UTC 38.0N 128.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 070900UTC 39.1N 129.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 32.2N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM NORTHEAST 30NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 36.9N 128.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 071800UTC 40.4N 130.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 081800UTC 42.3N 137.5E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 32.2N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM NORTHEAST 30NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 36.9N 128.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 071800UTC 40.4N 130.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 081800UTC 42.3N 137.5E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 975 HPA
AT 32.2N 131.4E KYUSYU MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 34.2N 129.3E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 36.9N 128.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT03.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 051800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051800UTC 31.8N 131.8E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 060600UTC 33.5N 129.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 061800UTC 36.0N 128.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 070600UTC 38.6N 128.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
48HR
POSITION 071800UTC 40.6N 130.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 31.8N 131.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM NORTHEAST 40NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 36.1N 128.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 071800UTC 40.4N 130.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 081800UTC 42.3N 137.5E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 31.8N 131.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM NORTHEAST 40NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 36.1N 128.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 071800UTC 40.4N 130.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 081800UTC 42.3N 137.5E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 970 HPA
AT 31.8N 131.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 33.7N 129.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 36.1N 128.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 40.4N 130.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 42.3N 137.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 31.4N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM NORTHEAST 40NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 35.1N 128.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071200UTC 39.5N 129.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 081200UTC 42.2N 135.4E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 31.4N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM NORTHEAST 40NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 35.1N 128.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071200UTC 39.5N 129.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 081200UTC 42.2N 135.4E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 970 HPA
AT 31.4N 132.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 33.0N 130.1E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 35.1N 128.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 31.2N, 133.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 051200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051200UTC 31.2N 133.1E
MOVEMENT W 14KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 060000UTC 32.5N 130.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 061200UTC 34.5N 128.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 070000UTC 37.0N 127.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 071200UTC 39.4N 129.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 080000UTC 41.0N 130.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 31KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 31.2N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 34.5N 128.7E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071200UTC 39.5N 129.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 081200UTC 42.2N 135.4E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 31.2N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 34.5N 128.7E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071200UTC 39.5N 129.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 081200UTC 42.2N 135.4E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 970 HPA
AT 31.2N 133.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.5N 130.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.5N 128.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 39.5N 129.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 42.2N 135.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 31.1N 133.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 34.0N 128.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 070600UTC 38.5N 128.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 080600UTC 41.8N 133.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 31.1N 133.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 34.0N 128.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 070600UTC 38.5N 128.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 080600UTC 41.8N 133.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 975 HPA
AT 31.1N 133.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 32.0N 131.1E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 34.0N 128.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 30.9N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.1N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 33.8N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 36.2N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 38.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 42.4N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 134.0E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
287 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 30.8N, 134.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 30.8N, 134.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 050600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050600UTC 30.8N 134.6E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 051800UTC 31.9N 131.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 060600UTC 33.3N 129.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 061800UTC 35.3N 127.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 070600UTC 37.5N 128.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 071800UTC 39.4N 129.1E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 080600UTC 40.6N 130.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 30.8N 134.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 33.6N 129.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 070600UTC 38.5N 128.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 080600UTC 41.8N 133.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 30.8N 134.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 33.6N 129.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 070600UTC 38.5N 128.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 080600UTC 41.8N 133.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 30.8N 134.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 31.7N 131.7E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 33.6N 129.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 38.5N 128.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 41.8N 133.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 30.7N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 33.1N 129.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 070000UTC 37.3N 127.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 080000UTC 41.4N 131.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 30.7N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 33.1N 129.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 070000UTC 37.3N 127.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 080000UTC 41.4N 131.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 980 HPA
AT 30.7N 135.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 31.4N 132.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 33.1N 129.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 136.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 050000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050000UTC 30.5N 136.1E
MOVEMENT W 19KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 051200UTC 31.3N 132.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 060000UTC 32.5N 129.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 061200UTC 34.3N 128.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 070000UTC 36.4N 127.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
60HR
POSITION 071200UTC 38.5N 128.5E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
72HR
POSITION 080000UTC 40.0N 129.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 30.5N 136.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 32.5N 130.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 070000UTC 37.3N 127.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 080000UTC 41.4N 131.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 30.5N 136.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 32.5N 130.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 070000UTC 37.3N 127.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 080000UTC 41.4N 131.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 980 HPA
AT 30.5N 136.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.1N 132.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.5N 130.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 37.3N 127.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 41.4N 131.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 30.3N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 32.1N 130.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 061800UTC 35.7N 128.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 071800UTC 40.3N 129.5E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 30.3N 137.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 32.1N 130.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 061800UTC 35.7N 128.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 071800UTC 40.3N 129.5E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 985 HPA
AT 30.3N 137.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 31.2N 133.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 32.1N 130.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 138.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT36 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1908 FRANCISCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041800UTC 29.9N 138.3E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 050600UTC 30.8N 134.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 051800UTC 31.9N 131.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 060600UTC 33.2N 128.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 061800UTC 35.4N 127.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
60HR
POSITION 070600UTC 37.5N 127.8E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 071800UTC 39.4N 129.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 29.8N 138.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 31.6N 131.7E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 061800UTC 35.7N 128.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 071800UTC 40.3N 129.5E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 29.8N 138.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 31.6N 131.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 061800UTC 35.7N 128.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 071800UTC 40.3N 129.5E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 985 HPA
AT 29.8N 138.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 30.7N 134.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 31.6N 131.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.7N 128.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 40.3N 129.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 29.6N 139.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 31.5N 132.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 061200UTC 34.7N 128.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 071200UTC 39.8N 128.8E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 29.6N 139.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 31.5N 132.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 061200UTC 34.7N 128.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 071200UTC 39.8N 128.8E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 29.6N 139.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 30.6N 135.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 31.5N 132.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 29.2N, 140.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190804132807
2019080412 09W FRANCISCO 012 02 290 19 SATL 040
T000 291N 1397E 045 R034 140 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 304N 1362E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 314N 1331E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 328N 1304E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 357N 1285E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 395N 1296E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 421N 1353E 030
T120 431N 1419E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 29.1N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.4N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.4N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.8N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 42.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 43.1N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 138.8E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
567 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
0919080400 275N1431E 45
0919080406 285N1417E 45
0919080412 291N1397E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 29.1N 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.4N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.4N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 32.8N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.5N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 42.1N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 43.1N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 138.8E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
567 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 29.2N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 31.3N 132.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 061200UTC 34.7N 128.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 071200UTC 39.8N 128.8E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 29.2N 140.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 31.3N 132.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 061200UTC 34.7N 128.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 071200UTC 39.8N 128.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 29.2N 140.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 30.5N 136.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.3N 132.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.7N 128.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 39.8N 128.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 29.1N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 31.4N 133.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 060600UTC 33.8N 129.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 070600UTC 38.6N 128.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 080600UTC 41.5N 133.0E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 29.1N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 31.4N 133.4E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 060600UTC 33.8N 129.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 070600UTC 38.6N 128.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 29.1N 140.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 30.3N 136.8E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 31.4N 133.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 141.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190804073736
2019080406 09W FRANCISCO 011 02 310 16 SATL 030
T000 285N 1417E 045 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 301N 1381E 050 R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 010 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 312N 1349E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 324N 1321E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 342N 1298E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 380N 1290E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 419N 1336E 030
T120 432N 1404E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 28.5N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.1N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.2N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.4N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 38.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 41.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 43.2N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 140.8E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
602 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
0919080400 275N1431E 45
0919080406 285N1417E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 28.5N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.1N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.2N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.4N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.2N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 38.0N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 41.9N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 43.2N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 140.8E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
602 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 28.6N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 31.3N 134.6E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 060600UTC 33.8N 129.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070600UTC 38.6N 128.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 080600UTC 41.5N 133.0E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 28.6N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 31.3N 134.6E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 060600UTC 33.8N 129.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070600UTC 38.6N 128.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 28.6N 141.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 30.2N 137.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 31.3N 134.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 33.8N 129.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 38.6N 128.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 41.5N 133.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 28.0N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 30.9N 135.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 060000UTC 32.4N 130.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 070000UTC 36.6N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 080000UTC 40.2N 131.7E 170NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 28.0N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 30.9N 135.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 060000UTC 32.4N 130.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 070000UTC 36.6N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 28.0N 142.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 29.5N 139.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 30.9N 135.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190804010513
2019080400 09W FRANCISCO 010 02 305 15 SATL 030
T000 275N 1429E 040 R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 025 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 290N 1396E 040 R034 115 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 302N 1363E 045 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 314N 1332E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 330N 1305E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 367N 1288E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 401N 1324E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 422N 1383E 035 R034 025 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 27.5N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.4N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 36.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 40.1N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.2N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 142.1E.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
0919080400 275N1429E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 27.2N, 143.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 27.2N, 143.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 27.5N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 142.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 31.4N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 36.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 40.1N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.2N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 142.1E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (TEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 27.2N 143.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 30.1N 136.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 060000UTC 32.4N 130.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070000UTC 36.6N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 080000UTC 40.2N 131.7E 170NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 27.2N 143.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 30.1N 136.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 060000UTC 32.4N 130.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 070000UTC 36.6N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 27.2N 143.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 28.6N 140.0E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 30.1N 136.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.4N 130.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 36.6N 128.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 40.2N 131.7E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 26.9N 143.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 29.7N 136.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 051800UTC 31.6N 131.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 061800UTC 35.4N 127.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 071800UTC 38.5N 128.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 081800UTC 41.6N 133.6E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 26.9N 143.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 29.7N 136.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 051800UTC 31.6N 131.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 061800UTC 35.4N 127.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 032100
WARNING 032100.
WARNING VALID 042100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 26.9N 143.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 28.2N 140.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 29.7N 136.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 144.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 144.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190803193016
2019080318 09W FRANCISCO 009 02 295 16 SATL 040
T000 267N 1443E 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 282N 1411E 040 R034 120 NE QD 075 SE QD 025 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 297N 1377E 045 R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 307N 1344E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 320N 1314E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 353N 1283E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 393N 1308E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 420N 1342E 035 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 26.7N 144.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 144.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 29.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 30.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.0N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 39.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 42.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 143.5E.
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1474E 40
0919080312 260N1459E 40
0919080318 267N1443E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 26.7N 144.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 144.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 29.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 30.7N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.0N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.3N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 39.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 42.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 27.1N 143.5E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND
042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 26.7N 144.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 29.4N 138.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 051800UTC 31.6N 131.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 061800UTC 35.4N 127.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 071800UTC 38.5N 128.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 081800UTC 41.6N 133.6E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 26.7N 144.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 29.4N 138.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 051800UTC 31.6N 131.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 061800UTC 35.4N 127.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 992 HPA
AT 26.7N 144.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.9N 141.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 29.4N 138.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 31.6N 131.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 35.4N 127.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 38.5N 128.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 41.6N 133.6E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 26.5N 145.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 27.9N 142.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 29.5N 138.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 26.5N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 29.5N 138.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 051200UTC 31.4N 132.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 061200UTC 34.5N 128.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 071200UTC 37.7N 128.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 081200UTC 39.9N 132.5E 240NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 26.5N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041500UTC 29.5N 138.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 051200UTC 31.4N 132.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 061200UTC 34.5N 128.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190803140503
2019080312 09W FRANCISCO 008 02 290 15 SATL 030
T000 260N 1457E 040 R034 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 276N 1425E 045 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 291N 1392E 045 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 010 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 304N 1358E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 326N 1298E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 343N 1279E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 375N 1271E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 406N 1305E 035 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 26.0N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.6N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.1N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 32.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 37.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 144.9E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 255N1473E 40
0919080312 260N1457E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 26.0N 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.6N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.1N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 32.6N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 37.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 144.9E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
199 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 26.3N, 146.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 26.3N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 29.2N 139.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 051200UTC 31.4N 132.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 061200UTC 34.5N 128.2E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 071200UTC 37.7N 128.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 081200UTC 39.9N 132.5E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 26.3N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 29.2N 139.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 051200UTC 31.4N 132.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 061200UTC 34.5N 128.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 994 HPA
AT 26.3N 146.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 27.8N 142.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 29.2N 139.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 31.4N 132.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 34.5N 128.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 37.7N 128.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 39.9N 132.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 25.7N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 28.7N 139.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 050600UTC 31.2N 133.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 060600UTC 33.8N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 070600UTC 37.4N 127.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 080600UTC 40.1N 131.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 25.7N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 28.7N 139.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 050600UTC 31.2N 133.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 060600UTC 33.8N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 994 HPA
AT 25.7N 146.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 27.4N 143.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 28.7N 139.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190803075211
2019080306 09W FRANCISCO 007 02 315 17 SATL 040
T000 254N 1472E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 273N 1441E 040 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 288N 1409E 040 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 302N 1375E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 314N 1343E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 340N 1293E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 370N 1272E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 405N 1309E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 25.4N 147.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 147.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.8N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.2N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.4N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 37.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 146.4E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
288 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
0919080306 254N1472E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 25.4N 147.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 147.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.8N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.2N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 31.4N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 34.0N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 37.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 146.4E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
288 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND
040900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 147.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND REDUCED
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 24.9N, 147.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND REDUCED
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW
TCHP, LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 24.9N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 27.9N 140.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 050600UTC 31.2N 133.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 060600UTC 33.8N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 070600UTC 37.4N 127.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 080600UTC 40.1N 131.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 24.9N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 27.9N 140.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 050600UTC 31.2N 133.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 060600UTC 33.8N 128.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 996 HPA
AT 24.9N 147.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.4N 144.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.9N 140.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 31.2N 133.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 33.8N 128.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 37.4N 127.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 40.1N 131.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 24.9N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 28.1N 141.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 050000UTC 30.3N 135.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 060000UTC 32.6N 129.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 070000UTC 35.4N 126.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 080000UTC 38.7N 126.5E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 24.9N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 28.1N 141.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 050000UTC 30.3N 135.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 060000UTC 32.6N 129.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030300
WARNING 030300.
WARNING VALID 040300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 998 HPA
AT 24.9N 148.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 26.7N 144.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 28.1N 141.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190803021052
2019080300 09W FRANCISCO 006 02 310 18 SATL 020
T000 242N 1486E 040 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 261N 1456E 040 R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 040 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 278N 1423E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 293N 1390E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 307N 1355E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 333N 1299E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 367N 1272E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 401N 1289E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 24.2N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.1N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 36.7N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 40.1N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 147.8E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM WEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 230N1501E 40
0919080300 242N1486E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 24.2N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.1N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 33.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 36.7N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 40.1N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 147.8E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
WEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 24.0N, 148.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND REDUCED
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT36 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 24.0N, 148.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND REDUCED
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT36 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP, LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 24.0N 148.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 27.4N 142.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 050000UTC 30.3N 135.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 060000UTC 32.6N 129.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 070000UTC 35.4N 126.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 080000UTC 38.7N 126.5E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 24.0N 148.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 27.4N 142.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 050000UTC 30.3N 135.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 060000UTC 32.6N 129.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 998 HPA
AT 24.0N 148.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.9N 145.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 27.4N 142.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 30.3N 135.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.6N 129.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 35.4N 126.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 38.7N 126.5E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 996 HPA
AT 23.3N 149.7E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 25.2N 146.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 26.9N 143.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 23.3N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 26.9N 143.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041800UTC 29.2N 137.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 051800UTC 31.4N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 061800UTC 34.1N 127.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 071800UTC 36.8N 126.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 23.3N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 032100UTC 26.9N 143.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041800UTC 29.2N 137.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 051800UTC 31.4N 131.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190802202828
2019080218 09W FRANCISCO 005 02 315 14 SATL 030
T000 227N 1501E 040 R034 170 NE QD 145 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 248N 1474E 040 R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 266N 1442E 045 R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 281N 1409E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 296N 1376E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 322N 1315E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 353N 1271E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 382N 1270E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 22.7N 150.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 150.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.8N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.6N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 29.6N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.2N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 38.2N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 149.4E.
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
0919080218 227N1501E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 22.7N 150.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 150.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.8N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.6N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 28.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 29.6N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.2N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 38.2N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 149.4E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 150.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 22.8N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 26.5N 144.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041800UTC 29.2N 137.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 051800UTC 31.4N 131.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 061800UTC 34.1N 127.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 071800UTC 36.8N 126.1E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 22.8N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 26.5N 144.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041800UTC 29.2N 137.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 051800UTC 31.4N 131.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 996 HPA
AT 22.8N 150.3E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 24.8N 147.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 26.5N 144.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 29.2N 137.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 31.4N 131.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 34.1N 127.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 36.8N 126.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 22.4N 150.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 26.1N 144.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041200UTC 28.5N 139.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 051200UTC 30.8N 132.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 061200UTC 33.0N 127.6E 260NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 071200UTC 36.6N 124.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 22.4N 150.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 031500UTC 26.1N 144.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 041200UTC 28.5N 139.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 051200UTC 30.8N 132.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 996 HPA
AT 22.4N 150.7E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 24.5N 147.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 26.1N 144.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190802140227
2019080212 09W FRANCISCO 004 02 320 10 SATL 045
T000 217N 1512E 040 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 235N 1491E 040 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 020 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 250N 1466E 045 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 020 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 265N 1437E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 279N 1405E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 305N 1341E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 328N 1293E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 358N 1256E 050 R050 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 151.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.0N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.5N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.9N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.5N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 32.8N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.8N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 150.7E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
576 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z,
030900Z AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
0919080212 217N1512E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 151.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 25.0N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.5N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.9N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 30.5N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 32.8N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 35.8N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 150.7E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
576 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z,
030900Z AND 031500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 151.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 21.9N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 25.8N 145.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041200UTC 28.5N 139.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 051200UTC 30.8N 132.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 061200UTC 33.0N 127.6E 260NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 071200UTC 36.6N 124.9E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 21.9N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 25.8N 145.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 041200UTC 28.5N 139.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 051200UTC 30.8N 132.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 996 HPA
AT 21.9N 151.2E MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 24.0N 148.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 25.8N 145.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 28.5N 139.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 30.8N 132.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 33.0N 127.6E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.6N 124.9E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 21.3N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 25.2N 146.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040600UTC 27.8N 141.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 050600UTC 30.2N 134.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 060600UTC 33.0N 129.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 070600UTC 36.1N 125.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 21.3N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 25.2N 146.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040600UTC 27.8N 141.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 050600UTC 30.2N 134.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190802072721
2019080206 09W FRANCISCO 003 02 320 12 SATL 040
T000 209N 1519E 035 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 225N 1503E 040 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 241N 1482E 045 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 030 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 255N 1456E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 268N 1427E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 292N 1369E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 316N 1316E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 343N 1272E 055 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 151.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 151.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.5N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 29.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 31.6N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 151.5E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
631 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
0919073118 184N1545E 15
0919080100 186N1542E 15
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
0919080206 209N1519E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 151.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 151.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.5N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 26.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 29.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 31.6N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 34.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 151.5E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
631 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z,
030300Z AND 030900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 152.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 152.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 21.0N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 24.9N 147.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040600UTC 27.8N 141.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050600UTC 30.2N 134.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 060600UTC 33.0N 129.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 070600UTC 36.1N 125.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 21.0N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 24.9N 147.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040600UTC 27.8N 141.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050600UTC 30.2N 134.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) 998 HPA
AT 21.0N 152.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 17
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 23.0N 150.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 24.9N 147.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 27.8N 141.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 30.2N 134.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 33.0N 129.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 36.1N 125.9E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 20.3N 153.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 24.4N 148.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040000UTC 27.1N 143.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 050000UTC 29.8N 136.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 060000UTC 32.0N 129.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 070000UTC 34.4N 125.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 20.3N 153.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 24.4N 148.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 040000UTC 27.1N 143.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 050000UTC 29.8N 136.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.0N, 153.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(FRANCISCO) STATUS. TS FRANCISCO IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 153.1E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190802022611
2019080200 09W FRANCISCO 002 02 310 09 SATL 060
T000 200N 1527E 035 R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 215N 1513E 035 R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 233N 1496E 040 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 030 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 246N 1472E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 261N 1442E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 285N 1384E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 308N 1328E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 335N 1284E 060 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 152.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 152.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.6N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.5N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.5N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 152.4E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
262 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919073118 184N1545E 15
0919080100 186N1542E 15
0919080106 189N1540E 20
0919080112 191N1538E 20
0919080118 194N1534E 25
0919080200 200N1527E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 152.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 152.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.5N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.3N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.6N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.5N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.8N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 33.5N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 152.4E.
02AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
262 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 19.6N 153.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 24.1N 148.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 040000UTC 27.1N 143.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050000UTC 29.8N 136.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 060000UTC 32.0N 129.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 070000UTC 34.4N 125.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 19.6N 153.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 24.1N 148.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 040000UTC 27.1N 143.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050000UTC 29.8N 136.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1908 FRANCISCO (1908) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 19.6N 153.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 24.1N 148.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 27.1N 143.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 29.8N 136.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 32.0N 129.9E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 34.4N 125.0E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 012100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011321ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 153.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 153.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.9N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 153.0E.
01AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
501 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 011330).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REFERENCE TO TCFA MESSAGE IN
BULLETIN HEADER AND ADDED PARA 2.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 190801191816
2019080118 09W NINE 001 02 315 04 SATL 025
T000 195N 1533E 025
T012 209N 1523E 035 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 226N 1506E 040 R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 241N 1485E 040 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 255N 1460E 045 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 281N 1403E 055 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 303N 1344E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 327N 1297E 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 180 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 153.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 153.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.9N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 153.0E.
01AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
501 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0919073118 184N1545E 15
0919080100 186N1542E 15
0919080106 189N1539E 20
0919080112 192N1536E 20
0919080118 195N1533E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 153.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 153.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.9N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 30.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 32.7N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 153.0E.
01AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
501 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND
022100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

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Measurements Levels