Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for LEKIMA-19
in , China, Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 37N 120E
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 37N 120E
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 36.8N 119.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 38.8N 120.8E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 36.8N 119.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 38.8N 120.8E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 36.9N, 119.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 36.9N 119.6E GOOD
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 38.8N 120.7E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 34
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121200UTC 37.4N 119.2E
MOVEMENT ESE 4KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 36.9N 119.6E GOOD
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 38.8N 120.7E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 990 HPA
AT 36.9N 119.6E NORTH CHINA MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 38.8N 120.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 37.4N 119.4E GOOD
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 38.7N 120.3E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 37.4N 119.4E GOOD
MOVE S SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 38.7N 120.3E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 37.9N, 119.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP,
INCREASED VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 37.9N 119.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 38.7N 120.3E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 37.9N 119.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 38.7N 120.3E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 985 HPA
AT 37.9N 119.5E BOHAI MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 38.7N 120.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120600UTC 37.4N 119.3E
MOVEMENT SE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121800UTC 38.3N 119.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 37.8N 119.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 38.5N 120.2E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 37.8N 119.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 38.5N 120.2E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 37.8N, 119.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP,
INCREASED VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A
VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 32
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120000UTC 37.5N 119.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121200UTC 37.8N 119.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 37.8N 119.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 38.4N 120.0E 40NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 37.8N 119.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 38.4N 120.0E 40NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 985 HPA
AT 37.8N 119.6E BOHAI MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 38.4N 120.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 37.8N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 38.1N 119.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131800UTC 39.1N 120.7E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 37.8N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 38.1N 119.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131800UTC 39.1N 120.7E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 37.1N, 120.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS, LAND AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 37.1N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 37.9N 119.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131800UTC 39.1N 120.7E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 37.1N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 37.9N 119.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131800UTC 39.1N 120.7E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 980 HPA
AT 37.1N 120.1E SHANTUNG PENINSULA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.9N 119.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 39.1N 120.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111800UTC 37.3N 119.8E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120600UTC 37.5N 119.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 121800UTC 37.6N 119.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 36.5N 120.0E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 37.5N 119.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131200UTC 38.0N 120.3E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 36.5N 120.0E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 37.5N 119.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131200UTC 38.0N 120.3E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190811131348
2019081112 10W LEKIMA 031 02 350 12 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 360N 1195E 025
T012 371N 1187E 020
T024 381N 1188E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 031
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 36.0N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.1N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 119.3E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
305 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081018 321N1208E 55
1019081018 321N1208E 55
1019081100 336N1205E 45
1019081106 348N1198E 35
1019081112 360N1195E 25

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 031
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 36.0N 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.1N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 119.3E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
305 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM CMA SHOW THE SYSTEM
HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED AS IT MADE LANDFALL OVER SHANDONG PENINSULA
AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS GREATLY SHEARED NORTHWARD AND FULLY
EXPOSING A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND RADAR
LOOPS AND INTERPOLATED FROM NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD LEKIMA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE AND UNRAVEL DUE TO HIGH
(GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 36.0N, 120.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 36.0N 120.3E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 37.4N 119.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131200UTC 38.0N 120.3E 75NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 36.0N 120.3E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 37.4N 119.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131200UTC 38.0N 120.3E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 980 HPA
AT 36.0N 120.3E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 37.2N 119.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 37.4N 119.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 38.0N 120.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 30
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111200UTC 35.9N 120.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120000UTC 37.4N 120.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 121200UTC 37.7N 120.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 35.5N 120.0E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 37.8N 119.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130600UTC 38.0N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 35.5N 120.0E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 37.8N 119.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130600UTC 38.0N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190811070805
2019081106 10W LEKIMA 030 02 335 13 SATL SYNP 030
T000 348N 1198E 035 R034 085 NE QD 155 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 366N 1193E 030
T024 375N 1188E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 34.8N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.8N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.6N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 119.7E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081018 321N1208E 55
1019081018 321N1208E 55
1019081100 336N1205E 45
1019081106 348N1198E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 34.8N 119.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.8N 119.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.6N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 119.7E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 35.0N, 119.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED
AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 35.0N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 37.7N 119.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130600UTC 38.0N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 35.0N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 37.7N 119.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130600UTC 38.0N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 980 HPA
AT 35.0N 119.9E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 37.5N 119.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 37.7N 119.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 38.0N 119.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110600UTC 34.8N 119.8E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111800UTC 37.0N 119.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 120600UTC 37.6N 120.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 34.2N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 37.6N 119.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130000UTC 37.9N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 34.2N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 37.6N 119.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130000UTC 37.9N 119.3E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 33.6N, 120.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED
AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190811013821
2019081100 10W LEKIMA 029 02 350 15 SATL RADR 060
T000 336N 1205E 045 R034 245 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 362N 1204E 045 R034 240 NE QD 180 SE QD 070 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 379N 1202E 040 R034 180 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 386N 1201E 030
T048 395N 1209E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 33.6N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.6N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 39.5N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 120.5E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081018 321N1208E 55
1019081018 321N1208E 55
1019081100 336N1205E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 33.6N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.6N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 39.5N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 120.5E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110000UTC 33.6N 120.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 24KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111200UTC 36.5N 120.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 120000UTC 37.1N 120.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 121200UTC 37.8N 120.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 130000UTC 38.4N 120.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 33.6N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 37.6N 119.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130000UTC 37.9N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 33.6N 120.1E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 37.6N 119.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130000UTC 37.9N 119.3E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 980 HPA
AT 33.6N 120.1E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 36.5N 120.0E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 37.6N 119.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 37.9N 119.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 32.5N 120.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 37.5N 120.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 121800UTC 38.4N 120.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 131800UTC 39.3N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 32.5N 120.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 37.5N 120.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 121800UTC 38.4N 120.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 131800UTC 39.3N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.5N, 120.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED
AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL
FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190810191156
2019081018 10W LEKIMA 028 02 005 08 SATL RADR 045
T000 316N 1209E 055 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 225 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 342N 1207E 045 R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 030 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 363N 1205E 040 R034 220 NE QD 140 SE QD 020 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 375N 1207E 030
T048 385N 1216E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 34.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.3N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 38.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 120.8E.
10AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081006 301N1206E 65
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081012 308N1208E 60
1019081018 316N1209E 55
1019081018 316N1209E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 120.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 120.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 34.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.3N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 38.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 120.8E.
10AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z,
111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 31.5N 120.7E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 37.4N 119.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 121800UTC 38.4N 120.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 131800UTC 39.3N 121.3E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 31.5N 120.7E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 37.4N 119.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 121800UTC 38.4N 120.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 131800UTC 39.3N 121.3E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 980 HPA
AT 31.5N 120.7E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 34.7N 120.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 37.4N 119.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 38.4N 120.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 39.3N 121.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101800UTC 31.7N 120.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110600UTC 34.2N 120.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 111800UTC 36.5N 120.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 120600UTC 37.5N 120.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 121800UTC 38.4N 120.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 31.1N 120.5E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 37.0N 120.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 121200UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 131200UTC 38.6N 120.6E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 31.1N 120.5E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 37.0N 120.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 121200UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 131200UTC 38.6N 120.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190810131829
2019081012 10W LEKIMA 027 02 015 06 SATL 040
T000 308N 1207E 060 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T012 334N 1207E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T024 362N 1204E 045 R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 020 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 377N 1201E 040 R034 200 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 383N 1201E 035 R034 090 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 391N 1207E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.8N 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.3N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 39.1N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 120.7E.
10AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081006 302N1205E 65
1019081006 302N1205E 65
1019081006 302N1205E 65
1019081012 308N1207E 60
1019081012 308N1207E 60

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 30.8N 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.2N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.7N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 38.3N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 39.1N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 120.7E.
10AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 48 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 30.7N, 120.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND
WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL
FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 30.7N 120.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 36.3N 120.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 121200UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 131200UTC 38.6N 120.6E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 30.7N 120.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 36.3N 120.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 121200UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 131200UTC 38.6N 120.6E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 30.7N 120.5E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 33.4N 120.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 36.3N 120.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 38.0N 120.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 38.6N 120.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101200UTC 30.7N 120.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 7KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110000UTC 33.0N 120.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 111200UTC 35.2N 120.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 120000UTC 36.9N 120.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 121200UTC 38.0N 120.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
72HR
POSITION 131200UTC 39.4N 120.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 30.4N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 35.9N 120.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 120600UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 130600UTC 38.5N 120.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 140600UTC 38.9N 120.8E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 30.4N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 35.9N 120.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 120600UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 130600UTC 38.5N 120.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190810073438
2019081006 10W LEKIMA 026 02 340 13 SATL 040
T000 302N 1205E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 325N 1203E 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 200 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 352N 1203E 045 R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 020 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 375N 1199E 040 R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 030 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 385N 1196E 035 R034 125 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 391N 1202E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.5N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.2N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 37.5N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 38.5N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 39.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 120.5E.
10AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081006 302N1205E 65
1019081006 302N1205E 65
1019081006 302N1205E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.5N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 35.2N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 37.5N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 38.5N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 39.1N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 120.5E.
10AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEKIMA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 30.0N, 120.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL
FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 100746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA (1909) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE
HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110600 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (34.9 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
THREE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (38.2 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100600UTC 30.1N 120.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 101800UTC 32.2N 120.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 110600UTC 34.2N 120.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 111800UTC 36.2N 120.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 120600UTC 37.6N 120.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
72HR
POSITION 130600UTC 39.2N 120.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 30.0N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 34.8N 120.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120600UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 130600UTC 38.5N 120.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 140600UTC 38.9N 120.8E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 30.0N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 375NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 34.8N 120.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120600UTC 38.0N 120.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 130600UTC 38.5N 120.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 975 HPA
AT 30.0N 120.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 31.8N 120.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 34.8N 120.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 38.0N 120.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 38.5N 120.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 38.9N 120.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 29.5N 120.8E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 33.8N 120.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 120000UTC 37.6N 119.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 130000UTC 38.0N 119.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 140000UTC 38.6N 120.4E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 975 HPA
AT 29.5N 120.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 31.2N 120.5E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 33.8N 120.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 29.5N 120.8E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 33.8N 120.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 120000UTC 37.6N 119.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 130000UTC 38.0N 119.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 29.0N, 120.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL
FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190810014230
2019081000 10W LEKIMA 025 02 330 07 SATL RADR 045
T000 290N 1210E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 308N 1205E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 331N 1204E 045 R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 352N 1202E 040 R034 230 NE QD 180 SE QD 010 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 366N 1199E 035 R034 210 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 382N 1199E 025
T096 390N 1204E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 29.0N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.8N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 35.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 38.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 120.9E.
10AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
1019081000 290N1210E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 29.0N 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.0N 121.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.8N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 35.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.6N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 38.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 120.9E.
10AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 100146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100000 UTC, TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (33.4 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (37.4 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
THREE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (38.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

0000032100
26243

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100000UTC 29.0N 120.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 101200UTC 31.2N 120.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 110000UTC 33.2N 120.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 111200UTC 35.2N 120.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 120000UTC 37.1N 120.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 130000UTC 38.9N 120.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 29.0N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 33.3N 120.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120000UTC 37.6N 119.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 130000UTC 38.0N 119.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 140000UTC 38.6N 120.4E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 29.0N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 33.3N 120.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120000UTC 37.6N 119.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 130000UTC 38.0N 119.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 970
HPA
AT 29.0N 120.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.5N 120.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 33.3N 120.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 37.6N 119.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 38.0N 119.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 38.6N 120.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 28.7N 121.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 32.6N 120.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 111800UTC 36.8N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 121800UTC 37.5N 119.2E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 131800UTC 38.1N 120.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 141800UTC 39.2N 122.1E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 28.7N 121.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 32.6N 120.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 111800UTC 36.8N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 121800UTC 37.5N 119.2E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 950 HPA
AT 28.7N 121.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 30.2N 120.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 32.6N 120.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 091800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 121.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 121.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190809193643
2019080918 10W LEKIMA 024 02 330 10 SATL RADR 020
T000 284N 1214E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 205 NW QD
T012 300N 1205E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 320N 1204E 050 R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T036 346N 1204E 045 R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 040 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 364N 1200E 035 R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 010 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 382N 1197E 030
T096 390N 1203E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 30.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 34.6N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.4N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 38.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 39.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 121.2E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080912 275N1220E 95
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85
1019080918 284N1214E 85

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 30.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 34.6N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.4N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 38.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 39.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 121.2E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z
AND 102100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 091946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 091800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (31.8 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111800 UTC
THREE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (36.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
THREE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (38.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091800UTC 28.4N 121.4E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 100600UTC 30.3N 120.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 101800UTC 32.3N 120.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 110600UTC 34.2N 120.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 111800UTC 36.3N 120.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 121800UTC 37.8N 120.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
96HR
POSITION 131800UTC 39.5N 120.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 28.4N 121.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 31.7N 120.6E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111800UTC 36.8N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 121800UTC 37.5N 119.2E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 131800UTC 38.1N 120.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 141800UTC 39.2N 122.1E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 28.4N 121.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 31.7N 120.6E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111800UTC 36.8N 120.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 121800UTC 37.5N 119.2E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 121.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 29.8N 120.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 31.7N 120.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 36.8N 120.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.5N 119.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 38.1N 120.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 39.2N 122.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 091646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 091500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC
THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (36.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (37.9 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 27.9N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 31.1N 120.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 111200UTC 35.6N 120.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 121200UTC 37.4N 119.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 131200UTC 38.2N 120.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 141200UTC 39.5N 121.2E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 27.9N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 31.1N 120.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 111200UTC 35.6N 120.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 121200UTC 37.4N 119.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 27.9N 121.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 29.4N 120.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 31.1N 120.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190809131934
2019080912 10W LEKIMA 023 02 325 06 SATL 030
T000 275N 1221E 095 R064 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 115 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 305 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 289N 1210E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 310 SE QD 210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 307N 1206E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 280 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 332N 1205E 050 R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 358N 1202E 045 R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 010 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 370N 1191E 045 R034 170 NE QD 000 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 380N 1189E 035 R034 120 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 387N 1197E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.7N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.2N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 35.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 37.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 38.0N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 38.7N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 121.8E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080912 275N1221E 95
1019080912 275N1221E 95
1019080912 275N1221E 95

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 091200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 122.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.7N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 33.2N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 35.8N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 37.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 38.0N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 38.7N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 121.8E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-H OURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 122.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 091346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 091200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (35.6 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (37.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 27.5N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 30.6N 120.6E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111200UTC 35.6N 120.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 121200UTC 37.4N 119.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 131200UTC 38.2N 120.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 141200UTC 39.5N 121.2E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091200UTC 27.5N 122.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 100000UTC 29.3N 120.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 101200UTC 31.3N 120.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 110000UTC 33.2N 120.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 111200UTC 35.0N 120.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 121200UTC 37.0N 119.6E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 131200UTC 38.2N 119.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 27.5N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 30.6N 120.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111200UTC 35.6N 120.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 121200UTC 37.4N 119.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 27.5N 122.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 29.0N 120.8E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 30.6N 120.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 35.6N 120.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 37.4N 119.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 38.2N 120.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 39.5N 121.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 091046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 090900 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 100900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110900 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (35.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (37.6 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 27.3N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 30.2N 120.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 110600UTC 34.0N 120.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 120600UTC 37.7N 120.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 130600UTC 38.3N 120.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 140600UTC 39.5N 121.1E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 27.3N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 30.2N 120.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 110600UTC 34.0N 120.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 120600UTC 37.7N 120.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 27.3N 122.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 28.6N 121.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 30.2N 120.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190809072144
2019080906 10W LEKIMA 022 02 305 10 SATL 020
T000 270N 1225E 105 R064 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 175 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 105 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 295 SE QD 195 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 283N 1213E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 320 SE QD 220 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 299N 1205E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 310 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T036 320N 1204E 045 R034 240 NE QD 240 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 347N 1202E 045 R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 020 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 372N 1193E 045 R034 145 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 381N 1192E 040 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 393N 1204E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 27.0N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 34.7N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 38.1N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 39.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 122.2E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105
1019080906 270N1225E 105

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 27.0N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 32.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 34.7N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.2N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 38.1N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 39.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 122.2E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND
100900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 090600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 27.1N, 122.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 27.1N, 122.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, REDUCED TCHP AND HIGH SSTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 090600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090600UTC 27.0N 122.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 091800UTC 28.5N 121.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 100600UTC 30.5N 120.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 101800UTC 32.1N 120.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 110600UTC 34.4N 120.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 120600UTC 36.5N 119.6E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 130600UTC 38.0N 119.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 27.1N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 29.7N 120.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 110600UTC 34.0N 120.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120600UTC 37.7N 120.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 130600UTC 38.3N 120.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 140600UTC 39.5N 121.1E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 27.1N 122.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 29.7N 120.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 110600UTC 34.0N 120.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 120600UTC 37.7N 120.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 27.1N 122.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 28.2N 121.3E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 29.7N 120.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 34.0N 120.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 37.7N 120.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 38.3N 120.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 39.5N 121.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 090446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 090300 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 100300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (32.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC
THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (36.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC
THREE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (36.9 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (37.9 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 26.8N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 29.2N 120.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 110000UTC 32.4N 121.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 120000UTC 36.9N 120.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 130000UTC 37.1N 120.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 140000UTC 37.4N 120.0E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 26.8N 122.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 29.2N 120.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 110000UTC 32.4N 121.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 120000UTC 36.9N 120.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 26.8N 122.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 27.9N 121.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 29.2N 120.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190809012550
2019080900 10W LEKIMA 021 02 310 14 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 264N 1234E 115 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 255 SE QD 220 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 275N 1220E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 255 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 289N 1211E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 270 SE QD 210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 305N 1209E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 328N 1207E 055 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 367N 1198E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 384N 1196E 040 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 400N 1202E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.4N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.9N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.5N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 32.8N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 38.4N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 40.0N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 123.0E.
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
1019080900 264N1234E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 26.4N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.9N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.5N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 32.8N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 38.4N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 40.0N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 123.0E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM WEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 123.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 090146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 090000 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 100000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (35.9 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
THREE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (36.8 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (37.8 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 090000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090000UTC 26.4N 123.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 091200UTC 27.9N 122.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 100000UTC 29.5N 121.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 101200UTC 31.2N 121.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 110000UTC 32.9N 120.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 120000UTC 36.0N 119.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 26.4N 123.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 28.6N 121.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 110000UTC 32.4N 121.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 120000UTC 36.9N 120.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 130000UTC 37.1N 120.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 140000UTC 37.4N 120.0E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 26.4N 123.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 28.6N 121.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 110000UTC 32.4N 121.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 120000UTC 36.9N 120.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 26.4N 123.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.4N 122.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 28.6N 121.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 32.4N 121.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 36.9N 120.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 37.1N 120.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 37.4N 120.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 082246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 082100 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 092100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 102100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (35.7 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
THREE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (36.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (37.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 26.0N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 28.5N 121.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 101800UTC 30.7N 121.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 111800UTC 35.6N 120.1E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 121800UTC 36.1N 119.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 131800UTC 36.3N 118.4E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 26.0N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 28.5N 121.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 101800UTC 30.7N 121.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 111800UTC 35.6N 120.1E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 935 HPA
AT 26.0N 124.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 27.1N 122.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 28.5N 121.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190808200350
2019080818 10W LEKIMA 020 02 345 11 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 255N 1246E 120 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 268N 1232E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 270 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 281N 1220E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 330 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 294N 1214E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 170 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 314N 1212E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 150 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 354N 1205E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 377N 1199E 040 R034 110 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 393N 1206E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.5N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.8N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.4N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 37.7N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 39.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 124.2E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080806 237N1254E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080812 244N1249E 125
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
1019080818 255N1246E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 25.5N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.8N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 28.1N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.4N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 31.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 35.4N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 37.7N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 39.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 25.8N 124.2E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND
092100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 081946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 081800 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111800 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (35.5 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
THREE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (36.6 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (37.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 25.5N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOP
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 081800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 081800UTC 25.4N 124.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 090600UTC 27.2N 122.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
24HR
POSITION 091800UTC 28.7N 121.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 100600UTC 30.4N 121.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 101800UTC 32.2N 121.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 111800UTC 35.6N 120.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 121800UTC 36.6N 119.1E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 131800UTC 37.3N 118.0E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 25.5N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 28.0N 121.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 101800UTC 30.7N 121.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 111800UTC 35.6N 120.1E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 121800UTC 36.1N 119.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 131800UTC 36.3N 118.4E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 25.5N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 28.0N 121.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 101800UTC 30.7N 121.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 111800UTC 35.6N 120.1E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 935 HPA
AT 25.5N 124.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 26.7N 122.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 28.0N 121.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 30.7N 121.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 35.6N 120.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 36.1N 119.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 36.3N 118.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 081646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 081500 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101500 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (33.5 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (35.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
THREE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (36.6 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 24.9N 124.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 25.8N 122.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 27.2N 121.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 24.9N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 27.2N 121.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 101200UTC 28.6N 121.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 111200UTC 33.1N 120.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 121200UTC 35.0N 117.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 131200UTC 33.4N 117.3E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 24.9N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 27.2N 121.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 101200UTC 28.6N 121.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 111200UTC 33.1N 120.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190808144112
2019080812 10W LEKIMA 019 02 325 10 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 244N 1249E 130 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 250 SE QD 225 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 258N 1233E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 400 SE QD 310 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 268N 1222E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 370 SE QD 280 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 278N 1214E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 290 SE QD 210 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 290N 1212E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 329N 1206E 045 R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 060 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 351N 1189E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 35.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.5E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 236N1255E 130
1019080806 236N1255E 130
1019080806 236N1255E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 130
1019080812 244N1249E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019 //
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.8N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 35.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 124.5E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 081346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 081200 UTC, SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (1909) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 925 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 101200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (28.8 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC
THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (33.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (35.5 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (36.0 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 124.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOP
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 081200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 081200UTC 24.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 090000UTC 25.4N 123.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
24HR
POSITION 091200UTC 26.5N 122.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 100000UTC 27.6N 121.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 101200UTC 29.2N 121.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 111200UTC 32.5N 121.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 121200UTC 35.0N 119.0E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 131200UTC 35.2N 117.5E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 24.3N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 26.8N 121.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 101200UTC 28.6N 121.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 111200UTC 33.1N 120.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 121200UTC 35.0N 117.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 131200UTC 33.4N 117.3E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 24.3N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 26.8N 121.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 101200UTC 28.6N 121.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 111200UTC 33.1N 120.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 24.3N 124.9E EAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.6N 123.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 26.8N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 28.6N 121.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 33.1N 120.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.0N 117.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33.4N 117.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 24.0N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 26.4N 122.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 110600UTC 31.4N 121.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 120600UTC 35.4N 117.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 130600UTC 33.3N 116.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE SSW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 24.0N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 26.4N 122.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 110600UTC 31.4N 121.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 930 HPA
AT 24.0N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 25.2N 123.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 26.4N 122.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190808070900
2019080806 10W LEKIMA 018 02 335 10 SATL 010
T000 236N 1255E 130 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 250N 1239E 125 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 410 SE QD 310 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 262N 1226E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 410 SE QD 340 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 272N 1218E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 340 SE QD 290 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 283N 1214E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 220 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 320N 1212E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 347N 1193E 035 R034 230 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 357N 1185E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.2N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 32.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 125.1E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080806 236N1255E 130
1019080806 236N1255E 130
1019080806 236N1255E 130
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 018
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.2N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.3N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 32.0N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 34.7N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.7N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 125.1E.
08AUG19. SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOP DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080600UTC 23.7N 125.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 081800UTC 24.8N 124.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
24HR
POSITION 090600UTC 25.9N 122.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 091800UTC 27.1N 121.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 100600UTC 28.3N 121.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 110600UTC 31.5N 121.6E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 120600UTC 34.8N 119.3E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 130600UTC 35.1N 117.5E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 23.7N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 26.0N 122.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 110600UTC 31.4N 121.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 120600UTC 35.4N 117.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 130600UTC 33.3N 116.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE SSW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 23.7N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 26.0N 122.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 110600UTC 31.4N 121.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 930 HPA
AT 23.7N 125.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 25.0N 123.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 26.0N 122.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 27.9N 121.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 31.4N 121.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 35.4N 117.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 33.3N 116.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 23.2N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 130NM SOUTHWEST 110NM NORTHEAST
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 25.8N 122.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 100000UTC 27.4N 121.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 110000UTC 30.4N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 120000UTC 35.6N 120.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 130000UTC 37.7N 120.0E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 920 HPA
AT 23.2N 125.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 110
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 24.5N 124.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 25.8N 122.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 23.2N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 130NM SOUTHWEST 110NM NORTHEAST
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 25.8N 122.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 100000UTC 27.4N 121.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 110000UTC 30.4N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190808012012
2019080800 10W LEKIMA 017 02 330 07 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 227N 1260E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 245 SE QD 190 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 239N 1246E 120 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 300 SE QD 230 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 254N 1231E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 320 SE QD 270 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 261N 1223E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 320 SE QD 290 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 274N 1219E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 300 SE QD 250 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 304N 1217E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 339N 1212E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T120 361N 1205E 035 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.4N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.4N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.9N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 36.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 125.6E.
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115
1019080800 227N1260E 115

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.4N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.4N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 33.9N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 36.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 125.6E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 080000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080000UTC 22.7N 125.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 081200UTC 23.6N 124.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
24HR
POSITION 090000UTC 24.7N 123.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 091200UTC 25.9N 121.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 100000UTC 27.6N 121.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 110000UTC 30.9N 121.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 120000UTC 34.0N 121.2E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 130000UTC 36.9N 121.5E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 22.7N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 130NM SOUTHWEST 110NM NORTHEAST
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 25.6N 123.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 100000UTC 27.4N 121.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 110000UTC 30.4N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 120000UTC 35.6N 120.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 130000UTC 37.7N 120.0E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 22.7N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 130NM SOUTHWEST 110NM NORTHEAST
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 25.6N 123.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 100000UTC 27.4N 121.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 110000UTC 30.4N 121.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 920 HPA
AT 22.7N 125.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 110
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 24.2N 124.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.6N 123.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 27.4N 121.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 30.4N 121.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 35.6N 120.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 37.7N 120.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 22.4N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 25.4N 123.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 091800UTC 26.8N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 101800UTC 30.0N 122.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 111800UTC 33.7N 121.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 121800UTC 35.8N 120.2E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 22.4N 126.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 23.9N 125.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 25.4N 123.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 22.4N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 25.4N 123.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 091800UTC 26.8N 122.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 101800UTC 30.0N 122.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190807194923
2019080718 10W LEKIMA 016 02 310 07 SATL 010
T000 221N 1264E 110 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 233N 1250E 120 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 300 SE QD 210 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 246N 1235E 125 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 340 SE QD 260 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 256N 1225E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 350 SE QD 310 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 265N 1220E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 320 SE QD 300 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 296N 1216E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 334N 1215E 060 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 060 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 356N 1210E 040 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.4N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 35.6N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 126.0E.
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080700 202N1282E 75
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080706 209N1277E 90
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080712 216N1270E 100
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
1019080718 221N1264E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.4N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 35.6N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 126.0E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 22.1N, 126.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071800UTC 22.1N 126.4E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080600UTC 22.9N 124.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
24HR
POSITION 081800UTC 24.0N 123.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
36HR
POSITION 090600UTC 25.2N 122.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 091800UTC 26.7N 121.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 101800UTC 29.4N 120.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 111800UTC 32.5N 121.0E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 121800UTC 36.0N 121.4E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 22.1N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 25.1N 124.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 091800UTC 26.8N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 101800UTC 30.0N 122.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 111800UTC 33.7N 121.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 121800UTC 35.8N 120.2E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 22.1N 126.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 25.1N 124.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 091800UTC 26.8N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 101800UTC 30.0N 122.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 925 HPA
AT 22.1N 126.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 25.1N 124.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 26.8N 122.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 30.0N 122.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 33.7N 121.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 35.8N 120.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 21.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 24.0N 124.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 091200UTC 25.8N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 101200UTC 28.7N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 111200UTC 32.0N 121.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 121200UTC 35.4N 120.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 21.8N 126.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 24.0N 124.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 091200UTC 25.8N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 101200UTC 28.7N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 935 HPA
AT 21.8N 126.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 24.0N 124.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190807134301
2019080712 10W LEKIMA 015 02 320 09 SATL 010
T000 216N 1271E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 227N 1257E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 310 SE QD 220 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 239N 1243E 130 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 310 SE QD 220 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 251N 1230E 120 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 320 SE QD 290 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 261N 1223E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 320 SE QD 320 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 287N 1217E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 240 SE QD 250 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 321N 1218E 060 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T120 348N 1218E 045 R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.7N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 34.8N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 126.7E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080706 209N1277E 85
1019080706 209N1277E 85
1019080706 209N1277E 85
1019080712 216N1271E 100
1019080712 216N1271E 100
1019080712 216N1271E 100

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.7N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.7N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 34.8N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 126.7E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 127.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071200UTC 21.6N 127.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080000UTC 22.5N 125.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 081200UTC 23.4N 124.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 090000UTC 24.3N 123.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 091200UTC 25.4N 122.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 101200UTC 28.4N 120.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 21.6N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 23.7N 124.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 091200UTC 25.8N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 101200UTC 28.7N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 111200UTC 32.0N 121.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 121200UTC 35.4N 120.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 21.6N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 23.7N 124.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 091200UTC 25.8N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 101200UTC 28.7N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 940 HPA
AT 21.6N 127.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 23.7N 124.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 25.8N 122.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 28.7N 121.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 32.0N 121.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.4N 120.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 21.4N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 23.3N 124.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 090600UTC 25.4N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 110600UTC 30.9N 121.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 120600UTC 34.4N 121.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 21.4N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 23.3N 124.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 090600UTC 25.4N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 950 HPA
AT 21.4N 127.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 23.3N 124.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190807073004
2019080706 10W LEKIMA 014 03 325 08 SATL 010
T000 209N 1277E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 221N 1264E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 290 SE QD 240 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 233N 1251E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 300 SE QD 220 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 244N 1237E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 320 SE QD 270 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 254N 1227E 115 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 340 SE QD 320 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 275N 1221E 100 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 270 SE QD 300 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 303N 1220E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 327N 1216E 060 R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.4N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.5N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 32.7N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.4E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080706 209N1277E 85
1019080706 209N1277E 85
1019080706 209N1277E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 014 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.4N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.5N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 32.7N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.4E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
FINAL WARNING. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 127.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, REDUCED TCHP AND
DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070600UTC 21.0N 127.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 071800UTC 21.9N 126.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 080600UTC 22.8N 124.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
36HR
POSITION 081800UTC 23.8N 123.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 090600UTC 24.8N 122.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 100600UTC 27.6N 121.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 110600UTC 30.7N 120.9E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 120600UTC 33.9N 121.1E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 21.0N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 23.0N 125.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 090600UTC 25.4N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 110600UTC 30.9N 121.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 120600UTC 34.4N 121.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 21.0N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 23.0N 125.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 090600UTC 25.4N 122.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 100600UTC 27.9N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 955 HPA
AT 21.0N 127.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 23.0N 125.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 25.4N 122.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 27.9N 121.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 30.9N 121.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 34.4N 121.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 20.6N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 22.4N 125.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 090000UTC 24.7N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 100000UTC 27.3N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 110000UTC 29.6N 121.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 120000UTC 32.9N 121.9E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 955 HPA
AT 20.6N 128.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 22.4N 125.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 20.6N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 22.4N 125.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 090000UTC 24.7N 122.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 100000UTC 27.3N 121.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190807020355
2019080700 10W LEKIMA 013 03 345 07 SATL 030
T000 202N 1282E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 075 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 212N 1271E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 224N 1259E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 237N 1247E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 280 SE QD 200 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 245N 1233E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 270 SE QD 240 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 269N 1221E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 291N 1224E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 315N 1222E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 127.9E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080606 191N1291E 50
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080612 192N1287E 60
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080618 195N1284E 65
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080700 202N1282E 70
1019080700 202N1282E 70

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.7N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 29.1N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 127.9E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
11W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 20.2N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070000UTC 20.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 071200UTC 21.4N 126.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 080000UTC 22.3N 125.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 081200UTC 23.3N 123.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 090000UTC 24.6N 122.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 100000UTC 27.3N 120.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 110000UTC 29.4N 120.6E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 120000UTC 32.6N 121.1E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 20.2N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 22.1N 125.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 090000UTC 24.7N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 100000UTC 27.3N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 110000UTC 29.6N 121.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 120000UTC 32.9N 121.9E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 20.2N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 22.1N 125.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 090000UTC 24.7N 122.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 100000UTC 27.3N 121.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 955 HPA
AT 20.2N 128.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 22.1N 125.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 24.7N 122.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 27.3N 121.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 29.6N 121.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 32.9N 121.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 19.7N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 21.8N 125.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 081800UTC 24.2N 123.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 091800UTC 26.1N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 101800UTC 28.2N 121.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 111800UTC 31.4N 122.5E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 19.7N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 21.8N 125.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 081800UTC 24.2N 123.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 091800UTC 26.1N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 960
HPA
AT 19.7N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 21.8N 125.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190806205416
2019080618 10W LEKIMA 012 03 300 04 SATL 020
T000 195N 1282E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 203N 1271E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 213N 1258E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 225N 1245E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 280 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 237N 1231E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 220 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 259N 1214E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 280 SE QD 220 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 285N 1217E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 311N 1226E 040 R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 010 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.7N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.1N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 127.9E.
06AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 192N1291E 50
1019080606 192N1291E 50
1019080612 193N1286E 60
1019080612 193N1286E 60
1019080618 195N1282E 65
1019080618 195N1282E 65
1019080618 195N1282E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190806202418
2019080618 10W LEKIMA 012 03 300 04 SATL 040
T000 195N 1282E 065 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 203N 1271E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 213N 1258E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 225N 1245E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 280 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 237N 1231E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 220 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 259N 1214E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 280 SE QD 220 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 285N 1217E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 311N 1226E 040 R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 010 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.7N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 31.1N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 127.9E.
06AUG19. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 189N1293E 45
1019080606 192N1291E 50
1019080606 192N1291E 50
1019080612 193N1286E 60
1019080612 193N1286E 60
1019080618 195N1282E 65
1019080618 195N1282E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 19.7N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 061800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 1909 LEKIMA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 061800UTC 19.7N 127.9E
MOVEMENT W 6KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 070600UTC 20.9N 126.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 071800UTC 21.8N 125.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 080600UTC 23.1N 124.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 081800UTC 24.2N 122.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 091800UTC 26.6N 120.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 101800UTC 29.4N 120.5E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 111800UTC 32.2N 121.0E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 19.7N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 21.6N 125.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 081800UTC 24.2N 123.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 091800UTC 26.1N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 101800UTC 28.2N 121.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 111800UTC 31.4N 122.5E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 19.7N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 21.6N 125.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 081800UTC 24.2N 123.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 091800UTC 26.1N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 970 HPA
AT 19.7N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.6N 125.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 24.2N 123.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 26.1N 121.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 28.2N 121.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 31.4N 122.5E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 21.5N 125.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 081200UTC 23.6N 123.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 091200UTC 25.3N 121.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 101200UTC 27.7N 121.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 111200UTC 30.5N 122.2E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 21.5N 125.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 081200UTC 23.6N 123.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 091200UTC 25.3N 121.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 970 HPA
AT 19.7N 128.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 21.5N 125.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190806133116
2019080612 10W LEKIMA 011 03 320 08 SATL 030
T000 197N 1285E 060 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 115 NW QD
T012 205N 1274E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 000 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 260 SE QD 240 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 214N 1261E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 290 SE QD 240 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 224N 1247E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 320 SE QD 230 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 236N 1233E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 330 SE QD 250 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 255N 1211E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 240 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 277N 1209E 055 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 290 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 010 NW QD
T120 304N 1221E 040 R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.4N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.6N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 128.2E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 188N1291E 45
1019080606 191N1290E 50
1019080606 191N1290E 50
1019080612 197N1285E 60
1019080612 197N1285E 60

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.4N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.6N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.5N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.7N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 30.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 128.2E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 128.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 19.6N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 21.3N 126.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 081200UTC 23.6N 123.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 091200UTC 25.3N 121.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 101200UTC 27.7N 121.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 111200UTC 30.5N 122.2E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 19.6N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 21.3N 126.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 081200UTC 23.6N 123.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 091200UTC 25.3N 121.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 970 HPA
AT 19.6N 128.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.3N 126.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 23.6N 123.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 25.3N 121.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 27.7N 121.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 30.5N 122.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 19.5N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 20.9N 126.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 080600UTC 22.8N 124.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090600UTC 25.2N 121.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 100600UTC 27.4N 120.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 110600UTC 30.8N 121.4E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 19.5N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 20.9N 126.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 080600UTC 22.8N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090600UTC 25.2N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 975 HPA
AT 19.5N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 20.9N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190806074648
2019080606 10W LEKIMA 010 03 345 03 SATL 030
T000 191N 1290E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T012 198N 1281E 055 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 230 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T024 207N 1269E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 270 SE QD 250 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 216N 1254E 070 R064 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 300 SE QD 240 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 227N 1240E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 310 SE QD 250 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 246N 1215E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 290 SE QD 220 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 266N 1207E 045 R034 170 NE QD 280 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 294N 1218E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.6N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 128.8E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 188N1291E 45
1019080606 191N1290E 50
1019080606 191N1290E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.6N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 26.6N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 128.8E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W
(FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 19.2N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 20.6N 127.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 080600UTC 22.8N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090600UTC 25.2N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 100600UTC 27.4N 120.4E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 110600UTC 30.8N 121.4E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 19.2N 129.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 230NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 20.6N 127.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 080600UTC 22.8N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090600UTC 25.2N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
980 HPA
AT 19.2N 129.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 20.6N 127.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.8N 124.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 25.2N 121.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 27.4N 120.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 30.8N 121.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 19.0N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 20.4N 127.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 080000UTC 22.3N 124.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090000UTC 25.0N 121.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 100000UTC 27.2N 119.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 110000UTC 30.7N 120.4E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 19.0N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 20.4N 127.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 080000UTC 22.3N 124.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090000UTC 25.0N 121.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 985 HPA
AT 19.0N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 20.4N 127.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190806013757
2019080600 10W LEKIMA 009 03 025 02 SATL 030
T000 188N 1291E 045 R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 194N 1286E 050 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 201N 1276E 055 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 212N 1260E 060 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 270 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 222N 1245E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 246N 1216E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 269N 1201E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 260 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 300N 1208E 035 R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.2N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.9N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 129.0E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z
AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
1019080600 188N1291E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.2N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.9N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 129.0E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 468
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z
AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 18.9N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 20.1N 127.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080000UTC 22.3N 124.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090000UTC 25.0N 121.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 100000UTC 27.2N 119.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 110000UTC 30.7N 120.4E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 18.9N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 20.1N 127.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 080000UTC 22.3N 124.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090000UTC 25.0N 121.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 985 HPA
AT 18.9N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.1N 127.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 22.3N 124.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.0N 121.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 27.2N 119.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 30.7N 120.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 18.3N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE SSW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 19.9N 128.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 071800UTC 21.8N 125.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 081800UTC 24.3N 122.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 091800UTC 26.5N 119.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 101800UTC 29.7N 119.5E 325NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 18.3N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE SSW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 19.9N 128.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 071800UTC 21.8N 125.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 081800UTC 24.3N 122.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 985 HPA
AT 18.3N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 19.9N 128.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190805203345
2019080518 10W LEKIMA 008 03 235 03 SATL 030
T000 186N 1290E 045 R034 075 NE QD 185 SE QD 135 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 189N 1286E 050 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 200 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 196N 1280E 055 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 205N 1268E 060 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 260 SE QD 220 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 216N 1254E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 280 SE QD 210 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 239N 1220E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 259N 1202E 055 R050 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 260 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 287N 1203E 035 R034 060 NE QD 320 SE QD 160 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.7N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 128.9E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 189N1297E 35
1019080512 188N1293E 40
1019080518 186N1290E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.6N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.7N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 128.9E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 18.8N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 19.4N 128.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071800UTC 21.8N 125.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 081800UTC 24.3N 122.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 091800UTC 26.5N 119.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 101800UTC 29.7N 119.5E 325NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 18.8N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 19.4N 128.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071800UTC 21.8N 125.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 081800UTC 24.3N 122.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 985 HPA
AT 18.8N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 19.4N 128.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.8N 125.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 24.3N 122.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 26.5N 119.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 29.7N 119.5E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 18.9N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 19.2N 128.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 071200UTC 21.2N 126.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 081200UTC 23.9N 123.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 091200UTC 26.0N 119.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 101200UTC 28.5N 118.9E 350NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 18.9N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 19.2N 128.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 071200UTC 21.2N 126.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 081200UTC 23.9N 123.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 990 HPA
AT 18.9N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 19.2N 128.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190805142658
2019080512 10W LEKIMA 007 02 215 05 SATL 060
T000 187N 1294E 040 R034 075 NE QD 170 SE QD 175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 189N 1290E 040 R034 080 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 193N 1285E 045 R034 110 NE QD 210 SE QD 220 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 201N 1280E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T048 213N 1268E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 180 NW QD
T072 234N 1233E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 230 SW Q
D 190 NW QD
T096 257N 1211E 055 R050 020 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T120 283N 1206E 035 R034 090 NE QD 260 SE QD 090 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.7N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 129.3E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584
NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 191N1297E 35
1019080512 187N1294E 40

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.9N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 25.7N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.3N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 129.3E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584
NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW)cFOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 129.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 19.0N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 19.1N 128.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071200UTC 21.2N 126.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 081200UTC 23.9N 123.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 091200UTC 26.0N 119.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 101200UTC 28.5N 118.9E 350NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 990 HPA
AT 19.0N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 19.1N 128.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.2N 126.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 23.9N 123.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 26.0N 119.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 28.5N 118.9E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 19.0N 129.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 19.1N 128.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071200UTC 21.2N 126.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 081200UTC 23.9N 123.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 19.0N 129.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 19.3N 129.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 070600UTC 20.6N 127.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 080600UTC 23.2N 125.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 090600UTC 25.8N 122.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 100600UTC 28.4N 121.7E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 19.0N 129.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 19.3N 129.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 070600UTC 20.6N 127.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 080600UTC 23.2N 125.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 990 HPA
AT 19.0N 129.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 19.3N 129.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190805075120
2019080506 10W LEKIMA 006 02 310 05 SATL 045
T000 191N 1297E 035 R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 194N 1290E 040 R034 090 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 197N 1285E 045 R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 201N 1278E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 211N 1267E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T072 231N 1241E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 240 SW QD 220 NW QD
T096 252N 1209E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 240 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T120 281N 1196E 035 R034 090 NE QD 240 SE QD 110 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.1N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 21.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.1N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.2N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.1N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 129.5E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35
1019080506 191N1297E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 129.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.0N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 19.3N 129.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070600UTC 20.6N 127.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 080600UTC 23.2N 125.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 090600UTC 25.8N 122.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 100600UTC 28.4N 121.7E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 990 HPA
AT 19.0N 129.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 19.3N 129.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 20.6N 127.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 23.2N 125.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 25.8N 122.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 28.4N 121.7E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.0N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 19.3N 129.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070600UTC 20.6N 127.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 080600UTC 23.2N 125.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 18.7N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 19.1N 129.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 070000UTC 20.0N 128.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 080000UTC 22.5N 125.9E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 090000UTC 24.9N 122.6E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 100000UTC 27.2N 120.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA
AT 18.7N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 19.1N 129.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 18.7N 129.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 19.1N 129.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 070000UTC 20.0N 128.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 080000UTC 22.5N 125.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190805020735
2019080500 10W LEKIMA 005 02 330 06 SATL 040
T000 188N 1301E 035 R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 192N 1296E 040 R034 090 NE QD 135 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 194N 1292E 045 R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 197N 1288E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T048 205N 1278E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T072 225N 1257E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 247N 1238E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 279N 1230E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 100 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.9N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 130.0E.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35
1019080500 188N1301E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.2N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.4N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.5N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.9N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 130.0E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 18.5N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 18.9N 129.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070000UTC 20.0N 128.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 080000UTC 22.5N 125.9E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 090000UTC 24.9N 122.6E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 100000UTC 27.2N 120.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 18.5N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 18.9N 129.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 070000UTC 20.0N 128.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 080000UTC 22.5N 125.9E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA
AT 18.5N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 18.9N 129.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 20.0N 128.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 22.5N 125.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 24.9N 122.6E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 27.2N 120.9E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA
AT 18.0N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 18.8N 129.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 18.0N 129.7E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 18.8N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 061800UTC 19.6N 128.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 071800UTC 21.9N 126.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 081800UTC 24.8N 124.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 091800UTC 27.4N 122.8E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 18.0N 129.7E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 18.8N 129.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 061800UTC 19.6N 128.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 071800UTC 21.9N 126.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190804200727
2019080418 10W LEKIMA 004 02 315 10 SATL 050
T000 183N 1304E 035 R034 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 187N 1298E 040 R034 050 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 190N 1294E 045 R034 040 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 194N 1288E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T048 200N 1282E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 270 SE QD 230 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T072 218N 1263E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 340 SE QD 210 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 245N 1239E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 290 SE QD 240 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 271N 1222E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.0N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.8N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 130.3E.
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 167N1314E 30
1019080412 176N1312E 35
1019080418 183N1304E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.0N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.8N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.1N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 130.3E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 041800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 17.9N 129.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 18.6N 129.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 061800UTC 19.6N 128.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 071800UTC 21.9N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 081800UTC 24.8N 124.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 091800UTC 27.4N 122.8E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 17.9N 129.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 18.6N 129.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 061800UTC 19.6N 128.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 071800UTC 21.9N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA
AT 17.9N 129.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 18.6N 129.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 19.6N 128.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.9N 126.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 24.8N 124.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 27.4N 122.8E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 17.8N 130.7E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 18.6N 130.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 061200UTC 19.6N 130.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 071200UTC 21.2N 128.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 081200UTC 23.8N 125.4E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 091200UTC 26.1N 123.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 17.8N 130.7E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 18.6N 130.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 061200UTC 19.6N 130.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 071200UTC 21.2N 128.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA
AT 17.8N 130.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 18.6N 130.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190804141303
2019080412 10W LEKIMA 003 02 005 11 SATL 060
T000 176N 1314E 030
T012 183N 1311E 035 R034 040 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 186N 1308E 040 R034 040 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 188N 1305E 045 R034 080 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 195N 1297E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T072 212N 1280E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 320 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T096 238N 1260E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 280 SE QD 240 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 263N 1240E 090 R064 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.3N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 131.3E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 165N1313E 25
1019080412 176N1314E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 17.5N, 130.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.5N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.8N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.3N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 131.3E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
570 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 17.5N 130.8E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 18.5N 130.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061200UTC 19.6N 130.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 071200UTC 21.2N 128.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 081200UTC 23.8N 125.4E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 091200UTC 26.1N 123.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 17.5N 130.8E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 18.5N 130.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 061200UTC 19.6N 130.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 071200UTC 21.2N 128.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) 992 HPA
AT 17.5N 130.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 18.5N 130.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 19.6N 130.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.2N 128.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 23.8N 125.4E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 26.1N 123.0E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 17.5N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 18.6N 131.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 060600UTC 19.5N 131.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 070600UTC 21.0N 128.7E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 080600UTC 23.3N 126.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 090600UTC 26.2N 124.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 17.5N 131.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 18.6N 131.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 060600UTC 19.5N 131.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 070600UTC 21.0N 128.7E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 16.5N, 131.9E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(LEKIMA) STATUS. TS LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 131.9E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.

=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 190804081240
2019080406 10W TEN 002 02 325 05 SATL 060
T000 165N 1313E 025
T012 175N 1311E 035 R034 080 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 180N 1308E 040 R034 100 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 186N 1304E 045 R034 100 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 192N 1299E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 201N 1288E 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 290 SE QD 250 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 228N 1261E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 253N 1246E 080 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 260 SE QD 220 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.3N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 131.3E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1019080300 149N1313E 20
1019080306 151N1311E 20
1019080312 154N1310E 20
1019080318 158N1311E 20
1019080400 161N1316E 25
1019080406 165N1313E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.6N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.3N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 131.3E.
04AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND
050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 17.4N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 18.6N 131.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060600UTC 19.5N 131.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 070600UTC 21.0N 128.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 080600UTC 23.3N 126.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 090600UTC 26.2N 124.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 17.4N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 18.6N 131.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 060600UTC 19.5N 131.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 070600UTC 21.0N 128.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1909 LEKIMA (1909) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 17.4N 131.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.6N 131.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 19.5N 131.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 21.0N 128.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 23.3N 126.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 26.2N 124.4E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=