Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KROSA-19
in Japan, Russian Federation, Korea, Republic of

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 39.4N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.4N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 42.3N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 44.3N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 40.1N 135.6E.
16AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
WEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO ERODE AS IT CONTINUES
TO TRACK THROUGH THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS POORLY-DEFINED IN MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS IN LINE WITH A PARTIAL 160048Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS SHOWING SWATHS OF 35 KNOT WIND BARBS SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED
FROM THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE (24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS).
TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 45
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160000UTC 39.8N 134.4E
MOVEMENT NNE 23KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 161200UTC 42.9N 137.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 170000UTC 45.5N 142.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 39.9N 134.3E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 42.7N 136.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 44.5N 140.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 37.7N 134.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.7N 134.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.9N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 43.3N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 38.5N 134.5E.
15AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 980 HPA
AT 38.0N 133.5E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 41.1N 136.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 43.5N 138.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 980 HPA
AT 37.1N 133.4E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 40.2N 135.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 42.9N 138.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 980 HPA
AT 36.2N 133.1E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 39.3N 134.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 42.2N 137.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 44.4N 142.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 150900
WARNING 150900.
WARNING VALID 160900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 978 HPA
AT 35.3N 133.0E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 38.6N 134.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 41.7N 136.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 978 HPA
AT 34.3N 132.6E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTH 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 37.8N 133.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 41.1N 136.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 44.4N 141.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 975 HPA
AT 33.6N 132.3E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 37.1N 133.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 40.5N 135.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 32.7N, 132.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 975 HPA
AT 32.7N 132.4E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 36.2N 132.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 39.6N 134.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 44.0N 140.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 32.2N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 38.8N 134.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161800UTC 43.6N 139.3E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 32.2N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 38.8N 134.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161800UTC 43.6N 139.3E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 975 HPA
AT 32.2N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 35.3N 133.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 38.8N 134.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 31.7N, 132.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 31.7N, 132.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 31.7N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 37.7N 133.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161800UTC 43.6N 139.3E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 31.7N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 37.7N 133.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161800UTC 43.6N 139.3E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 970 HPA
AT 31.7N 132.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 34.4N 132.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 37.7N 133.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 43.6N 139.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 30.7N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 37.0N 133.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 42.8N 137.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 43.0N 146.0E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 30.7N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 325NM EAST 270NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 37.0N 133.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 42.8N 137.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 171200UTC 43.0N 146.0E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 30.7N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 33.4N 132.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 37.0N 133.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 44
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151800UTC 37.8N 133.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 19KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 160600UTC 41.0N 136.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 161800UTC 43.8N 140.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 43
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151500UTC 36.9N 133.2E
MOVEMENT NNE 19KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 152100UTC 38.7N 133.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT
12HR
POSITION 160300UTC 40.3N 135.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
18HR
POSITION 160900UTC 41.6N 136.7E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 161500UTC 42.7N 138.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
30HR
POSITION 162100UTC 43.5N 140.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 040
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 35.9N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.9N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 39.4N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 42.6N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 36.8N 133.6E.
15AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 42
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151200UTC 36.0N 132.8E
MOVEMENT NNE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 151800UTC 37.6N 133.3E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT
12HR
POSITION 160000UTC 39.2N 134.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
18HR
POSITION 160600UTC 40.8N 135.6E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 161200UTC 42.1N 137.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
30HR
POSITION 161800UTC 43.1N 139.9E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 170000UTC 43.8N 141.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 41
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150900UTC 35.2N 132.5E
MOVEMENT N 18KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 151500UTC 36.9N 132.9E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 152100UTC 38.5N 133.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT
18HR
POSITION 160300UTC 40.1N 134.8E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 160900UTC 41.4N 136.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 39KT
30HR
POSITION 161500UTC 42.7N 138.7E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 162100UTC 43.5N 140.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 33.9N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 37.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.3N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 43.2N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 132.8E.
15AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 35 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 40
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150600UTC 34.3N 132.4E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 151200UTC 35.9N 132.6E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 151800UTC 37.5N 133.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 160000UTC 39.1N 134.2E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 160600UTC 40.8N 135.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 39KT
30HR
POSITION 161200UTC 42.0N 137.7E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 161800UTC 43.2N 139.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
42HR
POSITION 170000UTC 43.6N 141.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 39
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150300UTC 33.5N 132.3E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 150900UTC 35.1N 132.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 151500UTC 36.7N 132.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 152100UTC 38.3N 133.7E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 160300UTC 39.9N 134.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 39KT
30HR
POSITION 160900UTC 41.6N 136.6E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 32.4N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.6N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 39.1N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 41.9N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 44.3N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 33.2N 132.9E.
15AUG19. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
118 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z,
152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 38
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150000UTC 32.7N 132.3E
MOVEMENT N 14KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 150600UTC 34.2N 132.3E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 151200UTC 35.8N 132.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 151800UTC 37.3N 133.3E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 160000UTC 39.0N 134.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
30HR
POSITION 160600UTC 40.8N 135.6E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 142100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 37
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 142100UTC 32.0N 132.4E
MOVEMENT N 14KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 51KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 150300UTC 33.4N 132.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 49KT
12HR
POSITION 150900UTC 35.1N 132.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 151500UTC 36.7N 132.9E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 152100UTC 38.3N 133.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 43KT
30HR
POSITION 160300UTC 39.9N 134.8E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 160900UTC 41.6N 136.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 37KT
42HR
POSITION 161500UTC 42.8N 138.3E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 162100UTC 43.4N 140.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 172100UTC 44.0N 148.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 31.3N 132.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 132.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.2N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 37.4N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 42.9N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 132.7E.
14AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM
SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 36
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141800UTC 31.3N 132.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 52KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 150000UTC 32.6N 132.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 51KT
12HR
POSITION 150600UTC 34.3N 132.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 151200UTC 35.8N 132.7E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 151800UTC 37.5N 133.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 43KT
30HR
POSITION 160000UTC 39.1N 134.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 35
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141500UTC 30.8N 132.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 142100UTC 31.9N 132.3E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT
12HR
POSITION 150300UTC 33.3N 132.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 150900UTC 35.0N 132.3E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 54KT
24HR
POSITION 151500UTC 36.7N 132.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT
30HR
POSITION 152100UTC 38.3N 133.8E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 160300UTC 40.0N 134.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 45KT
42HR
POSITION 160900UTC 41.4N 136.5E WITHIN 85NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 43KT
48HR
POSITION 161500UTC 42.7N 138.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 171500UTC 44.6N 146.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 30.4N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.9N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 39.2N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 42.3N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 44.7N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 132.7E.
14AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND
151500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 132.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT18. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 132.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT18. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 34
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141200UTC 30.6N 132.8E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 150000UTC 33.0N 132.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT
24HR
POSITION 151200UTC 35.8N 132.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 54KT
36HR
POSITION 160000UTC 38.9N 134.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 161200UTC 42.0N 137.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 171200UTC 44.7N 143.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 30.6N 132.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 36.2N 132.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 42.8N 137.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 43.0N 146.0E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 30.6N 132.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 36.2N 132.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 42.8N 137.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 171200UTC 43.0N 146.0E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 30.6N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 280
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 33.0N 132.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 36.2N 132.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 42.8N 137.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 43.0N 146.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 30.1N 132.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 280
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 32.3N 132.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 35.3N 132.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 30.1N 132.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 35.3N 132.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 41.2N 135.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 170600UTC 44.0N 142.2E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 30.1N 132.9E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 35.3N 132.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 41.2N 135.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 170600UTC 44.0N 142.2E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 29.4N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.1N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.0N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 37.3N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.5N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 44.3N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 133.0E.
14AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM
SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 29.5N, 133.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY
FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 29.5N, 133.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY
FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 33
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140600UTC 29.4N 133.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 141800UTC 31.5N 132.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT
24HR
POSITION 150600UTC 34.5N 132.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 151800UTC 37.3N 132.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 160600UTC 40.9N 135.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 170600UTC 45.9N 139.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 29.5N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 34.4N 132.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 41.2N 135.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170600UTC 44.0N 142.2E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 29.5N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 34.4N 132.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 41.2N 135.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170600UTC 44.0N 142.2E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 29.5N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 280
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.7N 132.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 34.4N 132.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 41.2N 135.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 44.0N 142.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 29.1N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 33.3N 132.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 160000UTC 39.5N 134.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 170000UTC 44.7N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 29.1N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 280NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 33.3N 132.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 160000UTC 39.5N 134.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 170000UTC 44.7N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 29.1N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 280
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 31.0N 132.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 33.3N 132.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 28.7N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.4N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.5N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 39.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 43.9N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 133.0E.
14AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.8N, 133.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.8N, 133.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 32
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140000UTC 28.6N 133.2E
MOVEMENT NW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 141200UTC 30.8N 132.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 150000UTC 33.0N 131.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT
36HR
POSITION 151200UTC 35.9N 132.3E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 160000UTC 39.3N 134.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 170000UTC 45.5N 139.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 28.8N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 32.6N 132.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 160000UTC 39.5N 134.3E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170000UTC 44.7N 139.6E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 28.8N 133.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 32.6N 132.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 160000UTC 39.5N 134.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170000UTC 44.7N 139.6E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 28.8N 133.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.5N 132.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 32.6N 132.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 39.5N 134.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 44.7N 139.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
982 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 28.4N 133.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 32.0N 132.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151800UTC 37.3N 133.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 161800UTC 44.0N 137.9E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 28.4N 133.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 32.0N 132.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151800UTC 37.3N 133.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 161800UTC 44.0N 137.9E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 28.4N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 30.0N 132.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 32.0N 132.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 133.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 133.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.8N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.1N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 37.6N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 43.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 133.4E.
13AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND
142100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 133.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 133.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 28.3N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 31.4N 132.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151800UTC 37.3N 133.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 161800UTC 44.0N 137.9E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 28.3N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 31.4N 132.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151800UTC 37.3N 133.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 161800UTC 44.0N 137.9E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 28.3N 133.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 29.6N 132.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.4N 132.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 37.3N 133.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 44.0N 137.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 31
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131800UTC 28.4N 133.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 140600UTC 29.9N 132.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 141800UTC 31.9N 131.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 58KT
36HR
POSITION 150600UTC 34.5N 132.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 54KT
48HR
POSITION 151800UTC 37.7N 133.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 161800UTC 44.4N 138.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 28.2N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 31.0N 132.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 151200UTC 35.6N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161200UTC 42.5N 136.2E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 28.2N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 31.0N 132.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 151200UTC 35.6N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161200UTC 42.5N 136.2E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 28.2N 133.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 29.4N 133.1E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 31.0N 132.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 33.0N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 36.0N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 42.6N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 46.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 28.2N 133.9E.
13AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND
141500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.1N, 134.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 28.1N, 134.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 30
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131200UTC 28.0N 134.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 140000UTC 29.2N 132.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 141200UTC 30.8N 131.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 150000UTC 33.1N 132.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 151200UTC 36.3N 133.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 161200UTC 42.7N 137.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 171200UTC 48.5N 143.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 28.1N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 30.6N 132.7E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 151200UTC 35.6N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161200UTC 42.5N 136.2E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 28.1N 134.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 30.6N 132.7E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 151200UTC 35.6N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161200UTC 42.5N 136.2E 120NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 28.1N 134.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.1N 133.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.6N 132.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 35.6N 132.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 42.5N 136.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 27.7N 134.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 30.2N 132.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 150600UTC 34.1N 132.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160600UTC 40.9N 135.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 170600UTC 45.0N 140.0E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 27.7N 134.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 30.2N 132.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 150600UTC 34.1N 132.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160600UTC 40.9N 135.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 27.7N 134.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 28.8N 133.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 30.2N 132.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 27.6N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.3N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.6N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.4N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.7N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 45.1N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 134.4E.
13AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND
140900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 134.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 134.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130600UTC 27.6N 134.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 131800UTC 28.7N 133.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 140600UTC 29.9N 132.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 141800UTC 31.9N 131.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 150600UTC 34.9N 132.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 160600UTC 41.5N 136.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 27.6N 134.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 29.9N 133.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 150600UTC 34.1N 132.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160600UTC 40.9N 135.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 170600UTC 45.0N 140.0E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 27.6N 134.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 29.9N 133.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 150600UTC 34.1N 132.5E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160600UTC 40.9N 135.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 27.6N 134.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.6N 133.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 29.9N 133.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 34.1N 132.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 40.9N 135.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 45.0N 140.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 27.5N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 29.5N 133.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 150000UTC 32.8N 132.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 160000UTC 39.1N 134.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 170000UTC 44.5N 138.6E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 27.5N 135.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 325NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 29.5N 133.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 150000UTC 32.8N 132.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 160000UTC 39.1N 134.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 27.5N 135.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 28.3N 134.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 29.5N 133.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.4N, 135.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 27.4N, 135.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.4N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.3N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.8N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 39.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 44.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 134.9E.
13AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130000UTC 27.3N 135.3E
MOVEMENT WNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 131200UTC 28.5N 133.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 140000UTC 29.4N 132.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 141200UTC 30.7N 132.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 150000UTC 33.5N 132.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 160000UTC 39.8N 135.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 170000UTC 45.8N 140.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 27.4N 135.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 29.3N 133.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 32.8N 132.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160000UTC 39.1N 134.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 170000UTC 44.5N 138.6E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 27.4N 135.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 29.3N 133.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 32.8N 132.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 160000UTC 39.1N 134.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 27.4N 135.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 28.1N 134.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.3N 133.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 32.8N 132.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 39.1N 134.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 44.5N 138.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 27.1N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 28.7N 133.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141800UTC 31.3N 132.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 151800UTC 37.4N 133.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 161800UTC 44.5N 138.4E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 27.1N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 28.7N 133.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 141800UTC 31.3N 132.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 151800UTC 37.4N 133.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 27.1N 135.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 28.7N 133.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 136.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 136.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.1N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.8N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.3N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 32.0N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 38.2N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 43.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 136.2E.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 136.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 136.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 1910 KROSA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121800UTC 26.8N 136.4E
MOVEMENT NW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 130600UTC 27.9N 134.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 131800UTC 29.0N 133.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 140600UTC 30.0N 132.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 141800UTC 32.4N 131.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 151800UTC 38.1N 133.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 161800UTC 44.7N 139.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 26.8N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 28.3N 134.0E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141800UTC 31.3N 132.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151800UTC 37.4N 133.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 161800UTC 44.5N 138.4E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 26.8N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 28.3N 134.0E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 141800UTC 31.3N 132.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151800UTC 37.4N 133.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 26.8N 136.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.3N 134.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.3N 132.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 37.4N 133.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 44.5N 138.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 26.2N 136.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 28.1N 134.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 141200UTC 30.4N 132.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 151200UTC 35.6N 133.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 161200UTC 43.2N 136.8E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 26.2N 136.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 28.1N 134.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 141200UTC 30.4N 132.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 151200UTC 35.6N 133.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 121500
WARNING 121500.
WARNING VALID 131500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 26.2N 136.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 28.1N 134.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 25.8N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 137.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.9N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.8N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 36.0N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 43.5N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 136.7E.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND
131500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 25.9N, 137.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 25.9N, 137.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 25.9N 137.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 27.9N 134.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 141200UTC 30.4N 132.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151200UTC 35.6N 133.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 161200UTC 43.2N 136.8E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 25.9N 137.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 27.9N 134.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 141200UTC 30.4N 132.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 151200UTC 35.6N 133.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 25.9N 137.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 27.9N 134.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.4N 132.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 35.6N 133.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 43.2N 136.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 25.4N 137.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 27.5N 134.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 140600UTC 29.4N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 150600UTC 33.8N 132.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 160600UTC 41.1N 134.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 170600UTC 48.2N 140.8E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 25.4N 137.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 27.5N 134.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 140600UTC 29.4N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 150600UTC 33.8N 132.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 25.4N 137.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 27.5N 134.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.1N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.3N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 40.7N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 47.7N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 137.1E.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
WEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 137.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 137.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 25.0N 137.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 27.3N 134.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 140600UTC 29.4N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 150600UTC 33.8N 132.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 160600UTC 41.1N 134.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 170600UTC 48.2N 140.8E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 25.0N 137.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 27.3N 134.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 140600UTC 29.4N 132.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 150600UTC 33.8N 132.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 25.0N 137.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 27.3N 134.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 29.4N 132.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 33.8N 132.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 41.1N 134.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 48.2N 140.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 24.7N 137.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 27.4N 135.1E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 140000UTC 29.2N 133.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 150000UTC 32.7N 132.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 160000UTC 38.1N 132.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 170000UTC 44.8N 137.4E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 24.7N 137.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 27.4N 135.1E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 140000UTC 29.2N 133.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 150000UTC 32.7N 132.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 120300
WARNING 120300.
WARNING VALID 130300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 24.7N 137.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 27.4N 135.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.7N, 138.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.7N, 138.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 24.4N 137.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 137.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.5N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.5N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.9N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 38.8N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 45.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 137.5E.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 664 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z,
122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 24.7N 138.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 27.2N 135.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 140000UTC 29.2N 133.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 150000UTC 32.7N 132.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 160000UTC 38.1N 132.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 170000UTC 44.8N 137.4E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 24.7N 138.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 27.2N 135.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 140000UTC 29.2N 133.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 150000UTC 32.7N 132.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 24.7N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 27.2N 135.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.2N 133.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 32.7N 132.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 38.1N 132.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 44.8N 137.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 24.7N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 26.7N 135.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 131800UTC 28.4N 133.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 141800UTC 31.4N 131.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 151800UTC 36.6N 132.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 161800UTC 44.3N 136.9E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 24.7N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 26.7N 135.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 131800UTC 28.4N 133.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 141800UTC 31.4N 131.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 24.7N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 26.7N 135.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 23.9N 138.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 138.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.0N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.2N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.6N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 36.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 44.3N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 138.3E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 711 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z
AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 111800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 138.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA
SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 138.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA
SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 24.2N 138.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 26.4N 136.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 131800UTC 28.4N 133.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 141800UTC 31.4N 131.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 151800UTC 36.6N 132.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 161800UTC 44.3N 136.9E 280NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 24.2N 138.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 26.4N 136.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 131800UTC 28.4N 133.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 141800UTC 31.4N 131.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 24.2N 138.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 26.4N 136.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.4N 133.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.4N 131.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 36.6N 132.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 44.3N 136.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 24.2N 138.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 26.2N 136.1E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 131200UTC 27.9N 133.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 141200UTC 30.6N 132.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 151200UTC 35.4N 132.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 161200UTC 43.3N 136.7E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 24.2N 138.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 26.2N 136.1E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 131200UTC 27.9N 133.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 141200UTC 30.6N 132.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 24.2N 138.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 26.2N 136.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 111200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.0N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 24.0N, 139.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 24.0N 138.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 138.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.9N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.0N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.2N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.5N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 35.1N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 42.2N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 138.6E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND
121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (LEKIMA) FOR FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 24.0N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 26.0N 136.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 131200UTC 27.9N 133.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 141200UTC 30.6N 132.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 151200UTC 35.4N 132.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 161200UTC 43.3N 136.7E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 24.0N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 26.0N 136.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 131200UTC 27.9N 133.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 141200UTC 30.6N 132.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 965
HPA
AT 24.0N 139.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 26.0N 136.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 27.9N 133.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.6N 132.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 35.4N 132.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 43.3N 136.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 23.9N 139.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 25.9N 136.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 130600UTC 27.2N 134.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 140600UTC 29.9N 132.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 150600UTC 33.7N 132.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 160600UTC 40.2N 135.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 23.9N 139.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 25.9N 136.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 130600UTC 27.2N 134.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 140600UTC 29.9N 132.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 23.9N 139.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 25.9N 136.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.5N 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 139.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.2N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.3N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.4N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.6N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 39.7N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 139.3E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 23.6N, 139.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 23.6N, 139.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 23.6N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 25.5N 137.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 130600UTC 27.2N 134.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 140600UTC 29.9N 132.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 150600UTC 33.7N 132.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 160600UTC 40.2N 135.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 23.6N 139.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 25.5N 137.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 130600UTC 27.2N 134.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 140600UTC 29.9N 132.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 23.6N 139.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 25.5N 137.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 27.2N 134.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 29.9N 132.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 33.7N 132.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 40.2N 135.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 23.4N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 24.9N 137.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 130000UTC 26.4N 134.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 140000UTC 29.0N 132.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 150000UTC 32.2N 132.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 160000UTC 37.9N 133.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 23.4N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 500NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 24.9N 137.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 130000UTC 26.4N 134.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 140000UTC 29.0N 132.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 23.4N 140.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 24.9N 137.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.6N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.3N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.3N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.3N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 28.9N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 32.7N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 38.3N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 139.9E.
11AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 23.1N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 24.4N 137.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 130000UTC 26.4N 134.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 140000UTC 29.0N 132.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 150000UTC 32.2N 132.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 160000UTC 37.9N 133.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 23.1N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 24.4N 137.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 130000UTC 26.4N 134.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 140000UTC 29.0N 132.8E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 23.1N 140.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 24.4N 137.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 26.4N 134.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.0N 132.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 32.2N 132.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 37.9N 133.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 22.9N 140.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 24.0N 137.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 121800UTC 25.7N 135.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 131800UTC 28.2N 132.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 141800UTC 31.3N 132.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 151800UTC 36.3N 133.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 22.9N 140.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 24.0N 137.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 121800UTC 25.7N 135.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 131800UTC 28.2N 132.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.9N 140.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 24.0N 137.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF
A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.3N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.8N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.7N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.0N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.3N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 36.1N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 140.3E.
10AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 822 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z
AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 22.7N 140.5E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 23.7N 138.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 121800UTC 25.7N 135.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 131800UTC 28.2N 132.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 141800UTC 31.3N 132.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 151800UTC 36.3N 133.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 22.7N 140.5E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 450NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 23.7N 138.2E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 121800UTC 25.7N 135.0E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 131800UTC 28.2N 132.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.7N 140.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 350 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 23.7N 138.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 25.7N 135.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.2N 132.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.3N 132.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 36.3N 133.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 22.8N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 23.7N 138.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 121200UTC 25.6N 135.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 131200UTC 27.7N 132.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 141200UTC 30.3N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 151200UTC 35.1N 132.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.8N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 23.7N 138.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 22.8N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 23.7N 138.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 121200UTC 25.6N 135.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 131200UTC 27.7N 132.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.7N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.5N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.4N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.3N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.0N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 34.5N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 140.5E.
10AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 22.8N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 23.7N 138.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 121200UTC 25.6N 135.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 131200UTC 27.7N 132.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 141200UTC 30.3N 131.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 151200UTC 35.1N 132.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 22.8N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 23.7N 138.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 121200UTC 25.6N 135.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 131200UTC 27.7N 132.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.8N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 23.7N 138.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 25.6N 135.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 27.7N 132.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.3N 131.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 35.1N 132.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 22.9N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 23.8N 139.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 120600UTC 25.6N 136.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 130600UTC 27.4N 133.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 140600UTC 29.7N 132.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 150600UTC 34.0N 132.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 22.9N 140.9E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 23.8N 139.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 120600UTC 25.6N 136.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 130600UTC 27.4N 133.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.9N 140.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 23.8N 139.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.4N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.5N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.4N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 34.0N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 140.8E.
10AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.9N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 22.9N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 23.7N 139.2E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 120600UTC 25.6N 136.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 130600UTC 27.4N 133.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 140600UTC 29.7N 132.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 150600UTC 34.0N 132.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 22.9N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 23.7N 139.2E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 120600UTC 25.6N 136.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 130600UTC 27.4N 133.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.9N 141.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 23.7N 139.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 25.6N 136.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 27.4N 133.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 29.7N 132.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 34.0N 132.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 22.9N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 23.7N 139.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 120000UTC 25.1N 137.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 130000UTC 27.2N 134.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 140000UTC 29.6N 132.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 150000UTC 33.5N 132.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 22.9N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 23.7N 139.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 120000UTC 25.1N 137.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 130000UTC 27.2N 134.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.9N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 23.7N 139.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.2N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.2N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.0N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.1N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 141.3E.
10AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.7N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS, LOWER SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 22.7N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 23.6N 139.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 120000UTC 25.1N 137.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 130000UTC 27.2N 134.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 140000UTC 29.6N 132.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 150000UTC 33.5N 132.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.7N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 23.6N 139.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 25.1N 137.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 27.2N 134.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 29.6N 132.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 33.5N 132.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 22.7N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 23.6N 139.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 120000UTC 25.1N 137.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 130000UTC 27.2N 134.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 22.6N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 23.6N 140.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 111800UTC 25.0N 138.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 121800UTC 26.8N 134.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 131800UTC 28.7N 132.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 141800UTC 31.8N 132.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 22.6N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 23.6N 140.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 111800UTC 25.0N 138.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 121800UTC 26.8N 134.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 970 HPA
AT 22.6N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 23.6N 140.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.3N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER,
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.7N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.4N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.3N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 28.5N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 31.1N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 141.3E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 22.3N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 23.6N 140.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 111800UTC 25.0N 138.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 121800UTC 26.8N 134.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 131800UTC 28.7N 132.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 141800UTC 31.8N 132.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 22.3N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 23.6N 140.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 111800UTC 25.0N 138.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 121800UTC 26.8N 134.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 970 HPA
AT 22.3N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 23.6N 140.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 25.0N 138.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 26.8N 134.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 28.7N 132.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 31.8N 132.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 22.4N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 23.5N 140.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 111200UTC 24.5N 139.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 121200UTC 26.6N 135.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 131200UTC 28.4N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 141200UTC 30.3N 133.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 22.4N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 23.5N 140.7E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 111200UTC 24.5N 139.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 121200UTC 26.6N 135.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.4N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 23.5N 140.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.1N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.1N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.9N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 30.2N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 141.4E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.2N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER
SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 22.2N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 23.5N 140.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 111200UTC 24.5N 139.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 121200UTC 26.6N 135.6E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 131200UTC 28.4N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 141200UTC 30.3N 133.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 22.2N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 23.5N 140.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 111200UTC 24.5N 139.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 121200UTC 26.6N 135.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.2N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.5N 140.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 24.5N 139.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 26.6N 135.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 28.4N 133.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 30.3N 133.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 22.1N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 23.1N 141.0E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 110600UTC 24.3N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 120600UTC 26.3N 136.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 130600UTC 28.3N 134.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 140600UTC 30.4N 133.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 22.1N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 23.1N 141.0E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 110600UTC 24.3N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 120600UTC 26.3N 136.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 955 HPA
AT 22.1N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 23.1N 141.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 22.0N 141.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 141.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.5N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.0N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.8N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.6N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 29.9N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 141.2E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.0N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 22.0N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 23.0N 141.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 110600UTC 24.3N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 120600UTC 26.3N 136.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 130600UTC 28.3N 134.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 140600UTC 30.4N 133.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 22.0N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 23.0N 141.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 110600UTC 24.3N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 120600UTC 26.3N 136.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 23.0N 141.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 24.3N 139.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 26.3N 136.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 28.3N 134.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 30.4N 133.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 22.0N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 23.1N 141.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 110000UTC 24.6N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 120000UTC 26.4N 137.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 130000UTC 28.1N 134.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 140000UTC 30.0N 134.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 22.0N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 23.1N 141.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 110000UTC 24.6N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 120000UTC 26.4N 137.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.0N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 23.1N 141.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.1N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 22.4N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.2N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.8N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 27.5N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 29.5N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 141.1E.
09AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 22.1N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 23.1N 141.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 110000UTC 24.6N 140.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 120000UTC 26.4N 137.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 130000UTC 28.1N 134.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 140000UTC 30.0N 134.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 22.1N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 23.1N 141.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 110000UTC 24.6N 140.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 120000UTC 26.4N 137.5E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.1N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 23.1N 141.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 24.6N 140.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 26.4N 137.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 28.1N 134.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 30.0N 134.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 22.2N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 23.3N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 101800UTC 24.7N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 111800UTC 26.6N 138.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 121800UTC 29.0N 136.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 131800UTC 29.8N 135.9E 240NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.2N 141.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 23.3N 141.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 22.2N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 23.3N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 101800UTC 24.7N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 111800UTC 26.6N 138.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.3N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.8N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.0N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.5N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 141.0E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 10W
(LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.2N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.2N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 22.2N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 23.2N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 101800UTC 24.7N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 111800UTC 26.6N 138.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 121800UTC 29.0N 136.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 131800UTC 29.8N 135.9E 240NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 22.2N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 23.2N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 101800UTC 24.7N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 111800UTC 26.6N 138.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.2N 141.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 23.2N 141.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 24.7N 141.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 26.6N 138.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 29.0N 136.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 29.8N 135.9E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 22.2N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 23.0N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 101200UTC 24.4N 141.6E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 111200UTC 26.4N 139.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 121200UTC 28.9N 136.8E 170NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 131200UTC 29.9N 135.5E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 22.2N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 325NM
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 23.0N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 101200UTC 24.4N 141.6E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 111200UTC 26.4N 139.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.2N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 23.0N 141.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 22.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.0N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.5N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.1N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.2N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 140.9E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.1N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.1N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 22.1N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 23.0N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 101200UTC 24.4N 141.6E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 111200UTC 26.4N 139.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 121200UTC 28.9N 136.8E 170NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 131200UTC 29.9N 135.5E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 22.1N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 23.0N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 101200UTC 24.4N 141.6E 75NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 111200UTC 26.4N 139.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.1N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 23.0N 141.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 24.4N 141.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 26.4N 139.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 28.9N 136.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 29.9N 135.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 22.1N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 23.0N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 100600UTC 24.0N 141.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 110600UTC 26.1N 140.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 120600UTC 28.6N 138.0E 170NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 130600UTC 30.4N 136.2E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 22.1N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 23.0N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 100600UTC 24.0N 141.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 110600UTC 26.1N 140.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.1N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 23.0N 141.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.4N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 22.8N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.2N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.7N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.2N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.1N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 140.6E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 22.1N, 140.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE
OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 22.1N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 22.9N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 100600UTC 24.0N 141.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 110600UTC 26.1N 140.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 120600UTC 28.6N 138.0E 170NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 130600UTC 30.4N 136.2E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 22.1N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 22.9N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 100600UTC 24.0N 141.8E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 110600UTC 26.1N 140.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 950 HPA
AT 22.1N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 22.9N 141.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 24.0N 141.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.1N 140.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 28.6N 138.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 30.4N 136.2E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 22.1N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 23.1N 141.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 100000UTC 24.0N 142.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 110000UTC 25.9N 141.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 120000UTC 28.4N 139.9E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 130000UTC 30.5N 138.8E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 965 HPA
AT 22.1N 140.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 23.1N 141.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 22.1N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 23.1N 141.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 100000UTC 24.0N 142.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 110000UTC 25.9N 141.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 140.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 140.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 140.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.6N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.4N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.9N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.6N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.9N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 140.5E.
08AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 21.9N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 23.0N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 100000UTC 24.0N 142.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 110000UTC 25.9N 141.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 120000UTC 28.4N 139.9E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 130000UTC 30.5N 138.8E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 21.9N 140.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 23.0N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 100000UTC 24.0N 142.1E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 110000UTC 25.9N 141.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 970 HPA
AT 21.9N 140.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 23.0N 141.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 24.0N 142.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 25.9N 141.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 28.4N 139.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 30.5N 138.8E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 21.9N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 23.1N 140.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 091800UTC 23.7N 141.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 101800UTC 25.2N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 111800UTC 27.6N 140.3E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 121800UTC 29.9N 138.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) 975 HPA
AT 21.9N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 23.1N 140.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 21.9N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 23.1N 140.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 091800UTC 23.7N 141.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 101800UTC 25.2N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 21.8N 140.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 140.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.8N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.1N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.4N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.0N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.3N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
390 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.6N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 140.8E.
07AUG19. TYPHOON 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY KROSA IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 140.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 21.7N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 23.0N 140.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 091800UTC 23.7N 141.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 101800UTC 25.2N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 111800UTC 27.6N 140.3E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 121800UTC 29.9N 138.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 21.7N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 23.0N 140.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 091800UTC 23.7N 141.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 101800UTC 25.2N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 21.7N 140.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 23.0N 140.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 23.7N 141.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 25.2N 142.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 27.6N 140.3E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 29.9N 138.4E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 21.7N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 22.9N 140.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 091200UTC 23.6N 141.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 101200UTC 25.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 111200UTC 27.3N 140.6E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 121200UTC 29.6N 138.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 980 HPA
AT 21.7N 140.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 22.9N 140.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 21.7N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 22.9N 140.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 091200UTC 23.6N 141.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 101200UTC 25.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.4N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.4N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.8N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.4N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.7N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 141.0E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 21.5N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 22.8N 140.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 091200UTC 23.6N 141.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 101200UTC 25.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 111200UTC 27.3N 140.6E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 121200UTC 29.6N 138.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 21.5N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 22.8N 140.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 091200UTC 23.6N 141.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 101200UTC 25.0N 142.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 980 HPA
AT 21.5N 141.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 22.8N 140.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 23.6N 141.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 25.0N 142.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.3N 140.6E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 29.6N 138.4E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 21.3N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 22.6N 141.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 090600UTC 23.3N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 100600UTC 24.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 110600UTC 26.3N 141.4E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 120600UTC 29.4N 139.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 21.3N 141.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 22.6N 141.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 090600UTC 23.3N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 100600UTC 24.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 990 HPA
AT 21.3N 141.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 22.6N 141.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 22.1N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.7N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.3N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 141.1E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 21.1N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 21.1N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 22.4N 141.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 090600UTC 23.3N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 100600UTC 24.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 110600UTC 26.3N 141.4E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 120600UTC 29.4N 139.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 21.1N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 22.4N 141.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 090600UTC 23.3N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 100600UTC 24.0N 142.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 990 HPA
AT 21.1N 141.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.4N 141.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 23.3N 141.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 24.0N 142.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.3N 141.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 29.4N 139.0E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 20.8N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 22.3N 140.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 090000UTC 23.2N 141.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 100000UTC 24.0N 141.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 110000UTC 26.1N 141.5E 230NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 120000UTC 29.3N 139.7E 325NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 20.8N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 22.3N 140.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 090000UTC 23.2N 141.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 100000UTC 24.0N 141.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 990 HPA
AT 20.8N 141.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 22.3N 140.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.5N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.5N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 24.8N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 26.9N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.4N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 141.4E.
07AUG19. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
253 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z
AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 10W
(LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 20.5N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 20.5N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 22.0N 140.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 090000UTC 23.2N 141.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 100000UTC 24.0N 141.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 110000UTC 26.1N 141.5E 230NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 120000UTC 29.3N 139.7E 325NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 20.5N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 22.0N 140.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 090000UTC 23.2N 141.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 100000UTC 24.0N 141.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 20.5N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 22.0N 140.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 23.2N 141.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 24.0N 141.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.1N 141.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 29.3N 139.7E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 20.1N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 21.8N 141.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 081800UTC 22.7N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 091800UTC 23.8N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 101800UTC 26.1N 142.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 111800UTC 29.3N 140.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 20.1N 141.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 21.8N 141.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 081800UTC 22.7N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 091800UTC 23.8N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 994 HPA
AT 20.1N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 21.8N 141.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 19.5N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 21.4N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 081800UTC 22.7N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 091800UTC 23.8N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 101800UTC 26.1N 142.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 111800UTC 29.3N 140.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 19.5N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 21.4N 141.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 081800UTC 22.7N 141.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 091800UTC 23.8N 141.8E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 996 HPA
AT 19.5N 142.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 21.4N 141.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 22.7N 141.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 23.8N 141.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 26.1N 142.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 29.3N 140.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 19.0N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 21.2N 141.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 081200UTC 22.6N 141.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 091200UTC 23.7N 142.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 101200UTC 25.7N 142.4E 230NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 111200UTC 28.6N 141.7E 325NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 996 HPA
AT 19.0N 142.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 21.2N 141.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 19.0N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 21.2N 141.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 081200UTC 22.6N 141.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 091200UTC 23.7N 142.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.2N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.1N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.5N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.9N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 142.1E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 18.9N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 21.0N 141.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 081200UTC 22.6N 141.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 091200UTC 23.7N 142.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 101200UTC 25.7N 142.4E 230NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 111200UTC 28.6N 141.7E 325NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 18.9N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 21.0N 141.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 081200UTC 22.6N 141.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 091200UTC 23.7N 142.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 996 HPA
AT 18.9N 142.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 21.0N 141.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 22.6N 141.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 23.7N 142.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 25.7N 142.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 28.6N 141.7E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 18.6N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 20.6N 141.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 080600UTC 22.5N 141.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090600UTC 23.7N 141.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 100600UTC 24.9N 142.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 110600UTC 27.4N 141.8E 325NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) 998 HPA
AT 18.6N 142.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 20.6N 141.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 18.6N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 20.6N 141.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 080600UTC 22.5N 141.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090600UTC 23.7N 141.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.9N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.1N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 142.8E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
WEST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 060600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.5N, 143.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(KROSA) STATUS. TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 142.8E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1910 KROSA (1910)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.5N, 143.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(KROSA) STATUS. TS KROSA IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 142.8E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, DRY AIR
AND REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 18.5N 142.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 20.4N 141.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 080600UTC 22.5N 141.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090600UTC 23.7N 141.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 100600UTC 24.9N 142.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 110600UTC 27.4N 141.8E 325NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 18.5N 142.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 20.4N 141.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 080600UTC 22.5N 141.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090600UTC 23.7N 141.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1910 KROSA (1910) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 18.5N 142.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 20.4N 141.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 22.5N 141.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 23.7N 141.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 24.9N 142.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 27.4N 141.8E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.8N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.0N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.0N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 25.3N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.5N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 143.5E.
06AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
202 NM NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 144.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 144.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.1N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.3N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 22.9N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 144.0E.
05AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
91 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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