Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JULIETTE-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-07 22:05

WTPN31 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 027
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 24.4N 128.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 128.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 24.4N 131.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 24.4N 133.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.4N 135.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 24.4N 137.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 24.6N 141.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 26.0N 144.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 27.5N 146.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 129.7W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 20:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

JULIETTE HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS,
AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A
RECENT ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING
SET AT 35 KT.  A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH JULIETTE REMAINING OVER WATERS OF 24-25C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  AFTER 48 HOURS, WATER TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE A BIT TO
NEAR 26C, BUT BY THEN INCREDIBLY BELLIGERENT WESTERLY SHEAR, ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KT, IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING THE REMNANT LOW.
STILL, THE GLOBAL MODELS CARRY A LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS, AND
THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11 KT.  THE LOW SHOULD TURN ON A DUE WEST
HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS.  AFTER DAY 3, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHICH
COULD CAUSE IT TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 20:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST.
JULIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
LOW'S MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE

>

2019-09-07 20:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W

>

2019-09-07 20:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 072034
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone.  A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt.  A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days.  After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt.  The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds.  After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 20:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 072034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Juliette was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 129.5 West.
Juliette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the
low's maximum winds should drop below gale force by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 072034
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 071559

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  30.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019    0  15.2N  30.1W     1014            18
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI      ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 154.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019    0  11.3N 154.6W     1006            28
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   12  11.9N 156.7W     1006            26
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   24  12.3N 159.9W     1006            26
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   36  13.4N 162.8W     1006            28
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   48  15.3N 166.2W     1007            31
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   60  16.5N 169.4W     1007            32
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   72  17.3N 172.1W     1006            40
    0000UTC 11.09.2019   84  18.0N 174.6W     1005            42
    1200UTC 11.09.2019   96  17.7N 176.4W     1003            42
    0000UTC 12.09.2019  108  17.3N 177.5W     1001            39
    1200UTC 12.09.2019  120  16.9N 178.1W     1000            42
    0000UTC 13.09.2019  132  16.4N 178.6W      999            38
    1200UTC 13.09.2019  144  16.4N 178.6W      999            39

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 41.0N  66.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019    0  41.0N  66.8W      951            62
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   12  45.5N  62.9W      957            56
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   24  49.3N  60.9W      955            56
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   36  51.4N  55.3W      977            51
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   48  54.7N  48.8W      983            36
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   60              POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N  43.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019    0  31.1N  43.7W      989            54
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   12  32.0N  46.7W      980            61
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   24  33.8N  48.8W      974            62
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   36  36.4N  49.2W      978            62
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   48  39.9N  47.6W      971            65
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   60  43.5N  42.0W      975            69
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   72  46.4N  33.4W     1002            47
    0000UTC 11.09.2019   84  47.5N  25.1W     1015            31
    1200UTC 11.09.2019   96              CEASED TRACKING

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 127.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019    0  24.2N 127.8W     1005            35
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   12  24.2N 130.3W     1010            31
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   24  23.9N 132.6W     1012            28
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   36  23.9N 135.0W     1013            28
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   48  24.1N 137.3W     1014            27
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   60              CEASED TRACKING

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 26.2N 146.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 12.09.2019  120  26.2N 146.2W     1009            27
    0000UTC 13.09.2019  132  26.3N 147.7W     1008            25
    1200UTC 13.09.2019  144  26.4N 149.5W     1009            27

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.7N 119.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.09.2019  144  14.7N 120.5W     1004            29

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 37.3N   4.6E

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 13.09.2019  144  37.3N   5.1E     1011            32


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 071558

>

2019-09-07 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 071558

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  30.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  15.2N  30.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI      ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 154.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  11.3N 154.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2019  11.9N 156.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  12.3N 159.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  13.4N 162.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  15.3N 166.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  16.5N 169.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  17.3N 172.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2019  18.0N 174.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2019  17.7N 176.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2019  17.3N 177.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2019  16.9N 178.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2019  16.4N 178.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2019  16.4N 178.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 41.0N  66.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  41.0N  66.8W   INTENSE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  45.5N  62.9W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  49.3N  60.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  51.4N  55.3W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.09.2019  54.7N  48.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2019  POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N  43.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  31.1N  43.7W   MODERATE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  32.0N  46.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  33.8N  48.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2019  36.4N  49.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  39.9N  47.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2019  43.5N  42.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  46.4N  33.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 11.09.2019  47.5N  25.1W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 11.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 127.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  24.2N 127.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2019  24.2N 130.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  23.9N 132.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  23.9N 135.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  24.1N 137.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 26.2N 146.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 12.09.2019  26.2N 146.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 13.09.2019  26.3N 147.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.09.2019  26.4N 149.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.7N 119.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 13.09.2019  14.7N 120.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 37.3N   4.6E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 13.09.2019  37.3N   5.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 071558

>

2019-09-07 15:47

WTPN31 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 026
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 24.2N 127.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 127.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 24.3N 130.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 24.3N 132.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 24.3N 134.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 24.2N 136.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 24.0N 140.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 24.5N 143.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 128.6W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 14:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 071446 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

THE LAST BIT OF JULIETTE'S DEEP CONVECTION--USING -50C CLOUD TOPS
AS A PROXY--DISSIPATED AROUND 0400 UTC.  ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT
THE STORM'S WINDS ARE DECREASING, RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 25 KT FROM SAB TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS SATCON.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH JULIETTE IS NOW DEPARTING A MINIMUM IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (23-24C), OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 26C FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO.  IN ADDITION, WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY
BY 48 HOURS.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOESN'T REDEVELOP SOON, JULIETTE
WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY, AND THEN MAINTAIN
THAT STATUS WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE LOW SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AROUND DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10 KT.  NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
SHALLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE FUTURE TRACK OF JULIETTE THROUGH DAY 4, AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 14:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 071446
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops
as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC.  Although it's likely that
the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range
from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.
Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory.

Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface
temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain
below 26C for the next 3 days or so.  In addition, west-
southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially
by 48 hours.  If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette
will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain
that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next
several days.  The low should open up into a trough around day 5.

The initial motion is 280/10 kt.  Now that the cyclone has become
shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the
low-level trade winds.  The track models are in good agreement on
the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable
changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 14:48

WTPZ31 KNHC 071446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 128.4W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST.  JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 14:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 071445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 09:55

WTPN31 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 025
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 126.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 126.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 24.0N 128.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 24.0N 131.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 24.0N 133.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.9N 135.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 23.7N 139.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 23.5N 142.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 24.0N 145.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 127.3W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 732
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 08:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 070834 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

JULIETTE IS RAPIDLY DECLINING AND IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY IN
TURN. ASCAT DATA THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z REVEALED THAT
JULIETTE IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, WITH MAX WINDS OF
ONLY 35-40 KT. BASED ON THAT NEW INFO, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40 KT.

THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE NHC FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW SHOWS JULIETTE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS, IT COULD
CERTAINLY HAPPEN MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL
REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST IS THE SAME. JULIETTE IS LOCATED OVER
QUITE COLD WATERS AND WILL STEADILY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE
HEADING WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SOON-TO-BE REMNANT
LOW OVER WARMER WATERS BY DAY 5, AND SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT JULIETTE COULD TRY TO MAKE A COMEBACK AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER, EXTREMELY HIGH WIND SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND REGENERATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 08:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 070834
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Juliette is rapidly declining and is well on its way to becoming
post-tropical. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically over the past few
hours, and satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply in
turn. ASCAT data that arrived shortly before 06Z revealed that
Juliette is not as strong as previously estimated, with max winds of
only 35-40 kt. Based on that new info, the intensity has been
adjusted down to 40 kt.

The main change in the NHC forecast is that it now shows Juliette
becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. Given current trends, it could
certainly happen much sooner than that. Otherwise, the overall
reasoning behind the forecast is the same. Juliette is located over
quite cold waters and will steadily spin down over the next several
days. The tropical storm has turned westward and should continue
heading west through the middle of next week, steered by low-level
easterly trade winds. This track will take the soon-to-be remnant
low over warmer waters by day 5, and some of the dynamical guidance
suggests that Juliette could try to make a comeback at that time.
However, extremely high wind shear should prevent any convection
that does develop from becoming organized and regeneration is not
expected. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain very close to
the various consensus aids throughout the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-07 08:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 070833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 127.1W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-07 08:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 070833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 127.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 127.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-07 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 070358

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  27.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019    0  15.2N  27.8W     1014            18
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N  71.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019    0  37.3N  71.5W      960            62
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   12  41.0N  66.8W      946            63
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   24  45.4N  62.8W      956            58
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   36  49.2N  61.3W      955            58
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   48  51.1N  56.4W      975            46
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   60  54.4N  49.2W      983            36
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   72              POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N  40.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019    0  29.1N  40.1W     1004            39
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   12  30.9N  43.6W      990            51
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   24  31.9N  46.2W      987            55
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   36  33.6N  48.3W      980            60
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   48  36.3N  48.7W      980            59
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   60  39.4N  46.8W      973            68
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   72  42.5N  42.0W      974            68
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   84  45.1N  35.0W      996            53
    0000UTC 11.09.2019   96  46.3N  27.6W     1012            34
    1200UTC 11.09.2019  108              CEASED TRACKING

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 125.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019    0  23.5N 125.6W      994            46
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   12  23.9N 127.9W     1003            38
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   24  24.2N 130.1W     1008            33
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   36  24.1N 132.5W     1011            30
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   48  24.1N 135.0W     1013            28
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   60  24.2N 137.3W     1014            29
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   72  24.0N 139.7W     1015            28
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   84              CEASED TRACKING

 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 37.3N  57.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019    0  37.3N  57.2W     1011            24
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 12.1N 152.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   12  11.7N 153.9W     1006            29
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   24  11.9N 156.7W     1005            29
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   36  12.1N 159.9W     1004            29
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   48  13.0N 162.9W     1004            34
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   60  13.9N 166.4W     1005            34
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   72  15.5N 169.9W     1006            34
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   84  16.7N 173.2W     1006            37
    0000UTC 11.09.2019   96  17.6N 176.0W     1003            43
    1200UTC 11.09.2019  108  17.9N 178.3W     1000            48
    0000UTC 12.09.2019  120  18.0N 179.8W      994            56
    1200UTC 12.09.2019  132  17.2N 179.7E      992            56
    0000UTC 13.09.2019  144  17.2N 179.9E      988            55

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.9N 115.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 13.09.2019  144  15.0N 116.5W     1003            30


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 070358

>

2019-09-07 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 070358

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N  27.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  15.2N  27.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 07.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N  71.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  37.3N  71.5W    STRONG
 12UTC 07.09.2019  41.0N  66.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  45.4N  62.8W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  49.2N  61.3W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  51.1N  56.4W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.09.2019  54.4N  49.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2019  POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N  40.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  29.1N  40.1W     WEAK
 12UTC 07.09.2019  30.9N  43.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  31.9N  46.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  33.6N  48.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2019  36.3N  48.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  39.4N  46.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2019  42.5N  42.0W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  45.1N  35.0W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 11.09.2019  46.3N  27.6W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 11.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 125.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  23.5N 125.6W   MODERATE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  23.9N 127.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  24.2N 130.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  24.1N 132.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  24.1N 135.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  24.2N 137.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  24.0N 139.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER   6 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+  6 : 12.1N 152.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  11.7N 153.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  11.9N 156.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  12.1N 159.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  13.0N 162.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  13.9N 166.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  15.5N 169.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  16.7N 173.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2019  17.6N 176.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2019  17.9N 178.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2019  18.0N 179.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.09.2019  17.2N 179.7E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.09.2019  17.2N 179.9E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.9N 115.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 13.09.2019  15.0N 116.5W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 070358

>

2019-09-07 03:51

WTPN31 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 024
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 23.6N 125.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 125.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 24.1N 127.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 24.2N 129.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 24.1N 132.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 24.0N 134.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 23.9N 138.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 24.0N 142.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 24.0N 145.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 126.2W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 02:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 070231 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. CLOUD TOPS HAVE GRADUALLY
WARMED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST TAFB DVORAK FIX.

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK OR INTENSITY
FORECASTS. JULIETTE IS LOCATED OVER 23-24 DEG C WATERS, AND WILL
REMAIN OVER FAIRLY COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING APPEARS INEVITABLE AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 H. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REACH MARGINALLY
WARMER WATERS TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY AT
THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. JULIETTE
SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ON SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS FURTHER AND IS
STEERED ENTIRELY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THE MODELS
FORECAST THAT THE TROPICAL STORM/REMNANT LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE EAST PACIFIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 02:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 070231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 126.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THE
TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD ON SATURDAY, AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND JULIETTE WILL
LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-07 02:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 070231
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually
warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave
overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half
of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the
latest TAFB Dvorak fix.

No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will
remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued
weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a
remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally
warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will
have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at
that time.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette
should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is
steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models
forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue
westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close
to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-07 02:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 070230 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.0W

>

2019-09-07 02:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 070230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-06 21:17

WTPN31 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 023
   DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 11E
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 23.2N 124.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 124.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.8N 126.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 24.1N 128.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 24.1N 130.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 23.9N 133.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 23.7N 137.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.5N 140.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 24.0N 144.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 125.1W.
06SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 688
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND
072200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-06 20:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 062037
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TODAY.  THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECLINE, AND NOW
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.  THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING
AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO
48 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT ANY RE-ORGANIZATION.

JULIETTE IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/11 KT. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN WESTWARD ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER ONCE AGAIN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY, AND IS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 20:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 062036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 124.9W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 20:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 062035 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

>

2019-09-06 20:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 062035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 124.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 061559

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N  25.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2019    0  15.1N  25.5W     1014            16
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI      ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 148.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2019    0  11.5N 148.5W     1007            25
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   12  12.2N 150.7W     1007            26
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   24  12.2N 153.0W     1005            29
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   36  12.2N 155.9W     1004            29
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   48  12.7N 159.1W     1004            32
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   60  13.6N 162.2W     1004            33
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   72  14.5N 165.5W     1005            36
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   84  16.0N 169.0W     1004            38
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   96  16.9N 172.2W     1003            44
    0000UTC 11.09.2019  108  17.3N 175.0W      998            49
    1200UTC 11.09.2019  120  17.2N 177.2W      991            59
    0000UTC 12.09.2019  132  17.2N 178.8W      984            64
    1200UTC 12.09.2019  144  17.2N 179.8W      983            57

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N  75.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2019    0  35.2N  75.7W      964            61
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   12  37.2N  71.7W      963            64
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   24  40.5N  67.0W      951            70
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   36  45.0N  62.6W      956            60
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   48  49.0N  60.9W      953            59
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   60  51.1N  56.4W      973            47
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   72  53.8N  49.6W      983            36
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   84              POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N  37.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2019    0  26.7N  37.9W     1007            36
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   12  29.2N  40.5W     1005            40
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   24  30.9N  43.6W      994            50
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   36  32.0N  46.1W      992            48
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   48  33.5N  48.1W      982            60
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   60  36.2N  48.3W      977            64
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   72  39.7N  46.4W      974            64
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   84  43.0N  41.5W      975            67
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   96  45.3N  34.5W      999            50
    0000UTC 11.09.2019  108  46.4N  27.7W     1013            34
    1200UTC 11.09.2019  120              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 123.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2019    0  22.5N 123.2W      986            57
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   12  23.5N 125.5W      993            46
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   24  24.0N 127.8W     1002            40
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   36  24.0N 130.1W     1007            34
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   48  23.9N 132.6W     1010            31
    0000UTC 09.09.2019   60  23.8N 135.0W     1012            30
    1200UTC 09.09.2019   72  24.0N 137.6W     1014            30
    0000UTC 10.09.2019   84  24.0N 140.2W     1014            28
    1200UTC 10.09.2019   96  24.1N 142.5W     1014            25
    0000UTC 11.09.2019  108  24.5N 144.3W     1012            24
    1200UTC 11.09.2019  120  25.0N 145.5W     1011            24
    0000UTC 12.09.2019  132  25.8N 145.4W     1009            28
    1200UTC 12.09.2019  144  26.5N 145.8W     1008            29

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.9N  48.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 12.09.2019  132  14.0N  49.9W     1010            23
    1200UTC 12.09.2019  144  14.7N  51.1W     1010            25


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 061558

>

2019-09-06 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 061558

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N  25.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2019  15.1N  25.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 07.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI      ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 148.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2019  11.5N 148.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 07.09.2019  12.2N 150.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  12.2N 153.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  12.2N 155.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  12.7N 159.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  13.6N 162.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  14.5N 165.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  16.0N 169.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  16.9N 172.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2019  17.3N 175.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.09.2019  17.2N 177.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.09.2019  17.2N 178.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.09.2019  17.2N 179.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N  75.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2019  35.2N  75.7W    STRONG
 00UTC 07.09.2019  37.2N  71.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  40.5N  67.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  45.0N  62.6W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  49.0N  60.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  51.1N  56.4W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.09.2019  53.8N  49.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2019  POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N  37.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2019  26.7N  37.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 07.09.2019  29.2N  40.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  30.9N  43.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  32.0N  46.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  33.5N  48.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2019  36.2N  48.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.09.2019  39.7N  46.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  43.0N  41.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  45.3N  34.5W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 11.09.2019  46.4N  27.7W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 11.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 123.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2019  22.5N 123.2W   MODERATE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  23.5N 125.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  24.0N 127.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  24.0N 130.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  23.9N 132.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  23.8N 135.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  24.0N 137.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  24.0N 140.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.09.2019  24.1N 142.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.09.2019  24.5N 144.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.09.2019  25.0N 145.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.09.2019  25.8N 145.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.09.2019  26.5N 145.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.9N  48.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 12.09.2019  14.0N  49.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.09.2019  14.7N  51.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 061558

>

2019-09-06 15:05

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 022
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 123.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 123.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.4N 125.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.8N 127.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 23.9N 129.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.8N 131.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 23.5N 135.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 23.5N 139.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 24.0N 142.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 123.7W.
06SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND
071600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-06 14:56

WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

>

2019-09-06 14:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number  22...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Corrected headline

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.4 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion should continue during the next 24 hours.  A turn
toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general
westward motion should continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today, and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-06 14:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 061437 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE REMAINING CONVECTION STILL
WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE RAW
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND UW/CIMSS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 4.0, HOWEVER THE
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS ARE STILL AT 4.5.  USING A BLEND OF
THESE T- AND CI-NUMBERS, AS NHC TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
WEAKENING PHASE, YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 24.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS, WITH EVEN COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH OF THE STORM.  THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND JULIETTE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

RECENT FIXES SHOW THAT JULIETTE HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
300/10 KT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

>

2019-09-06 14:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 061437
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage
over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still
wraps completely around the center.  Subjective and objective raw
T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the
current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5.  Using a blend of
these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the
weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this
advisory.  Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees
Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air
mass along the predicted path of the storm.  These conditions
should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette
is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours.

Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or
300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24
hours.  After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within
the low-level tradewind flow.  The dynamical models are in better
agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the
cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-06 14:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 061436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
500 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 14:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 061436 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

>

2019-09-06 14:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 061436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 09:35

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 021
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 122.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 122.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 23.0N 124.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.6N 126.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 23.8N 128.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.8N 130.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.4N 135.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 23.4N 138.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 23.8N 141.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 122.9W.
06SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-06 09:28

WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST THU SEP 05 2019

CORRECTED MOTION IN THIRD PARAGRAPH.

THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF DETERIORATION OF JULIETTE'S INNER CORE.  THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED, CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUE TO
WARM, AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER
SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASINGLY
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.  SUBSEQUENTLY, GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS, OR LESS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND THE 48-HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/9 KT.  A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON
FRIDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD COMMENCE AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW
DEPRESSION, AND EVENTUALLY, A REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF

>

2019-09-06 09:27

WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  21...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected motion in third paragraph.

This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable
amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core.  The eastern
portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to
warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is
intruding from the northwest.  Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number
supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt.

Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable
pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly
stable thermodynamic conditions.  Subsequently, gradual weakening
should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is
expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less.  The intensity
forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
global models beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt.  A
mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over
the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on
Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next
couple of days.  Toward the end of the period, a westward motion
should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow
depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by
the low-level tradewind flow.  The track forecast is an update of
the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:54

WTPZ41 KNHC 060852 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST THU SEP 05 2019

THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF DETERIORATION OF JULIETTE'S INNER CORE.  THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED, CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUE TO
WARM, AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER
SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASINGLY
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.  SUBSEQUENTLY, GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS, OR LESS.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND THE 48-HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
305/9 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON FRIDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY
SHALLOW DEPRESSION, AND EVENTUALLY, A REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE TVCE MODEL

>

2019-09-06 08:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 060851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 122.7W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H).  A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB (29.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-06 08:54

WTPZ21 KNHC 060851 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

>

2019-09-06 08:53

WTPZ41 KNHC 060852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019

This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable
amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core.  The eastern
portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to
warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is
intruding from the northwest.  Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number
supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt.

Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable
pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly
stable thermodynamic conditions.  Subsequently, gradual weakening
should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is
expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less.  The intensity
forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
global models beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial motion is estimate continues to be northwestward, or
305/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United
States over the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward
turn on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the
next couple of days.  Toward the end of the period, a westward
motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically
shallow depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes
steered by the low-level tradewind flow.  The track forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:52

WTPZ21 KNHC 060851
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-06 02:52

WTPZ41 KNHC 060249 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

JULIETTE HAS REMAINED RESILIENT DESPITE MOVING OVER SSTS AROUND
25-26C OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ENVELOP THE CENTER WITH A RAGGED EYE APPARENT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
75 KT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS OF 24-25C
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL REMAIN OVER THESE WATER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. AFTER 48 HOURS, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
IMPACT JULIETTE'S CIRCULATION. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER WATERS
AND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND NEAR THE VARIOUS INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS, AS THE CONSENSUS AIDS
HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER FORWARD MOTION
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

>

2019-09-06 02:52

WTPZ31 KNHC 060248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 121.8W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-06 02:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 060249
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around
25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to
envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates
from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at
75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C
tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures
for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly
weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to
impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters
and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant
low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids.

Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical
ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by
the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only
notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight
increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids
have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion
during that time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-06 02:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 060248 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-06 02:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 060248
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-05 21:54

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 019
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 120.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 120.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 22.1N 122.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 23.0N 124.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.5N 126.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 23.8N 128.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 23.6N 132.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 23.3N 135.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.2N 138.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 121.1W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND
062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 052033 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

JULIETTE'S STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH A LOSE BANDING EYE EVIDENT. RECENT MICROWAVES IMAGES,
HOWEVER, INDICATE THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE BAND AND THAT
THE EYE IS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK
DATA-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB YIELDS A
70 KT ESTIMATE, WHILE A UW/CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATES 75-KT, AND
THE LATTER IS THE BASIS FOR THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY. JULIETTE
WILL BE MOVING OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A
DRIER, AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
HURRICANE. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 72 HOURS IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE A FURTHER DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE, AND JULIETTE IS NOW
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 3.

JULIETTE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
305/10 KT. A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED
AS JULIETTE WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIETTE. GIVEN THIS
MODEL SPREAD, THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 052033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite
imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images,
however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that
the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak
data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a
70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and
the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette
will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a
drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These
unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the
hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to
cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now
anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3.

Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or
305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight
and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected
as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good
agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant
differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this
model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 052033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 120.9W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H).  A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 052032 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 20:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 052032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 18:11

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 119.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 119.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.5N 121.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.6N 123.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.3N 125.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.6N 127.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.6N 131.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 23.2N 134.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 23.0N 137.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 120.2W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 14:59

WTPN31 PGTW 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 119.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 119.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.5N 121.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.6N 123.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.3N 125.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.6N 127.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.6N 131.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 23.2N 134.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 23.0N 137.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 120.2W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 14:45

WTPZ41 KNHC 051442 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JULIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN
THIS MORNING.  THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A LARGE, RAGGED EYE, BUT THE
CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE SURROUNDING RING OF CONVECTION HAVE WARMED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE THAT IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 TO 85 KT, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 80 KT
IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN IS
TYPICAL FOR EAST PACIFIC HURRICANES MOVING OVER COOL SSTS. LATER IN
THE PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE NHC INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT.  A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND THEN THE WEST, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS JULIETTE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE
EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE

>

2019-09-05 14:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 051441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...
...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 119.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A SLIGHTLY FASTER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 14:44

WTPZ21 KNHC 051441 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 14:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 051442
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

There has been little overall change in Juliette's cloud pattern
this morning.  The hurricane still has a large, ragged eye, but the
cloud tops within the surrounding ring of convection have warmed
during the past couple of hours.  Earlier microwave imagery showed a
well-defined low-level eye that is located a little south of the
satellite fixes from TAFB and SAB.  The various satellite intensity
estimates range from 77 to 85 kt, so the initial wind speed of 80 kt
is maintained for this advisory.

Juliette will be moving over gradually lower sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable air mass but the vertical shear
is expected to remain fairly low during the next couple days.  This
will likely result in a somewhat slower rate of weakening than is
typical for east Pacific hurricanes moving over cool SSTs. Later in
the period, southwesterly shear is expected to increase which should
cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.
The NHC intensity foreast is closest to the SHIPS intensity model.

The initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt.  A general northwestward
motion around the southwestern portion of the mid-level ridge over
the southwestern United States should continue today.  A turn toward
the west-northwest, and then the west, is expected over the next
couple of days as Juliette gradually weakens and is steered by the
easterly low- to mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope but is a little faster than the
previous advisory to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.6N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-05 14:43

WTPZ21 KNHC 051441
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 09:27

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 017
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 118.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 118.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 21.0N 120.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 22.1N 122.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 23.0N 124.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.6N 126.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.6N 129.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.2N 132.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 22.8N 135.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 119.2W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 08:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

JULIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  IF ANYTHING, THE SPIRAL BANDS APPEAR TO HAVE IMPROVED A BIT
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER, SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT INCREASED, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
DECREASING SSTS AND MOVE INTO A MORE DRY, STABLE AIR MASS, AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THESE INCREASINGLY
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
4 DAYS,  AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS
JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HCCA
AND IVCN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST
ADVISORY PACKAGE, AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/8 KT.
A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PRODUCED
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT, JULIETTE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED, THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  AFTERWARD, A WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY
SHALLOW DEPRESSION, AND ULTIMATELY, A REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE

>

2019-09-05 08:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 050849
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours.  If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit
in the western portion of the cyclone.  However, subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the
initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.

During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse
decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and
encounter increasing southwesterly shear.  These increasingly
inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to
gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about
4 days,  as the large-scale models indicate.  The NHC forecast is
just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is a little to the right of the last
advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced
by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should
occur during the next 24 hours.  After that, Juliette should
continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in
forward speed, through the 48 hour period.  Afterward, a westward
motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically
shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes
steered by the low-level easterly flow.  The official forecast is a
little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the
HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS
ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-05 08:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 050848 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 08:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 050848
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 119.1W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST.  JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H).  THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME TODAY AND FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  JULIETTE
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-05 08:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 050848
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-05 03:59

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 118.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 118.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.5N 119.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.7N 121.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.6N 123.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.3N 125.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 23.7N 128.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.2N 132.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 22.7N 135.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 118.6W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 794 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 02:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DEGRADE. THE EYE IS FILLING AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRY
SLOTS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND CURVED OUTER BANDS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT, TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  JULIETTE
IS STILL IN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BUT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SOON.  THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING
THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, AND THESE COOL WATERS,
AND A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT JULIETTE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS, WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS OF 24 TO 25 DEGREE C.  THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND IVCN GUIDANCE.

JULIETTE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KT. DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, BUT AT A FASTER PACE, STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, AND IT SHOULD BE
STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

>

2019-09-05 02:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 050233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

The satellite appearance of Juliette continues to gradually
degrade. The eye is filling and there is evidence of dry
slots within the circulation.  The cloud pattern consists of a
central dense overcast feature and curved outer bands.  The
initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, to be in better agreement
with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Juliette
is still in relatively favorable environmental conditions, but that
is expected to change soon.  The hurricane will likely be crossing
the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and these cool waters,
and a dry and stable air mass should cause steady weakening.  The
GFS and ECMWF suggest that Juliette should become a remnant low in
about 4 days, when it will be over SSTs of 24 to 25 degree C.  The
NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Juliette is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. During the next
couple of days, the cyclone is expected to continue
west-northwestward, but at a faster pace, steered by a mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Beyond that time, the
cyclone is forecast to become increasingly shallow, and it should be
steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow.  The models are
in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-05 02:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 050232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 118.5W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H).  THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-05 02:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 050232 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 02:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 050232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-04 22:00

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 117.5W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 117.5W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.0N 118.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 21.1N 120.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 22.1N 122.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 23.0N 124.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 23.6N 128.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 23.2N 131.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 22.8N 135.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 118.0W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 20:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 042038 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE, RAGGED EYE IN BOTH VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING.  WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED.  RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED, AND
THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER DECREASING
SSTS AND INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
JULIETTE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/6 KT.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JULIETTE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  AFTER
THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS
AND IS STEERED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE FARTHER SOUTH
INITIAL POSITION REQUIRED A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT THE LATTER PORTION REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

>

2019-09-04 20:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 042038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Juliette continues to exhibit a large, ragged eye in both visible
and infrared satellite imagery, but there are some breaks in the
convective banding.  Warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern
portion of the circulation has also been observed.  Recent microwave
data show that the low-level eye remains fairly well defined, and
that the center was located a little south of the previous
estimates.  The initial intensity remains 85 kt, which is a blend of
the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates.
Although the vertical shear is forecast to remain quite low during
the next several days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing
SSTs and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions.  This should
result in gradual weakening during the next several days, and
Juliette is now forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 295/6 kt.  A mid-level
ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern
Pacific should continue to steer Juliette west- northwestward at a
slightly faster forward speed during the next 2 to 3 days.  After
that time, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward as it weakens
and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow.  The farther south
initial position required a slight southward adjustment of the early
portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion remains
similar to the previous official forecast.  The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is near middle of the
envelope.

The wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent scatterometer
data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 20:40

WTPZ31 KNHC 042038
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

...JULIETTE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 117.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND JULIETTE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THURSDAY
NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB (28.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-04 20:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 042037 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-04 20:39

WTPZ21 KNHC 042037
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2019-09-04 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 041559

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 140.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.09.2019    0  13.4N 140.3W     1007            25
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   12  12.5N 141.8W     1006            24
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   24  12.3N 143.4W     1006            24
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   36  12.2N 144.9W     1005            26
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   48  11.9N 146.6W     1005            31
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   60  11.8N 148.6W     1003            35
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   72  11.9N 151.4W     1003            35
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   84  12.1N 154.0W     1002            38
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   96  12.5N 157.2W     1002            36
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  108  13.2N 160.5W     1000            40
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  120  14.4N 164.1W      997            46
    0000UTC 10.09.2019  132  15.7N 167.8W      993            49
    1200UTC 10.09.2019  144  16.8N 171.3W      989            59

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N  63.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.09.2019    0  33.0N  63.6W     1015            26
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   12  34.5N  62.6W     1014            28
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   24  35.5N  60.9W     1012            25
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   36  36.2N  59.2W     1011            23
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   48  35.9N  58.4W     1010            24
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   60  36.6N  57.2W     1011            25
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   72              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N  79.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.09.2019    0  29.5N  79.4W      958            70
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   12  30.8N  79.7W      954            69
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   24  32.0N  79.7W      948            80
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   36  33.0N  78.6W      951            69
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   48  34.8N  76.7W      955            72
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   60  36.7N  73.1W      949            72
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   72  40.3N  68.0W      936            77
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   84  44.4N  63.8W      950            59
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   96  48.8N  59.7W      961            59
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  108  52.7N  54.1W      973            44
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  120  54.1N  48.7W      981            46
    0000UTC 10.09.2019  132              CEASED TRACKING

        TROPICAL STORM FERNAND    ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N  96.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.09.2019    0  23.9N  96.8W     1003            30
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N  33.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.09.2019    0  19.7N  33.3W     1007            32
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   12  20.5N  34.2W     1005            38
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   24  22.0N  34.5W     1005            39
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   36  23.6N  35.6W     1006            34
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   48  25.9N  36.8W     1007            37
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   60  28.2N  38.7W     1005            40
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   72  30.3N  41.7W      989            53
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   84  30.8N  44.8W      991            53
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   96  31.3N  46.9W      983            58
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  108  32.4N  48.6W      980            58
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  120  33.9N  49.4W      977            59
    0000UTC 10.09.2019  132  35.9N  48.7W      967            70
    1200UTC 10.09.2019  144  37.7N  47.6W      959            77

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 116.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 04.09.2019    0  19.1N 116.7W      967            64
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   12  19.7N 118.1W      969            66
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   24  20.5N 119.5W      973            61
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   36  21.7N 121.0W      979            60
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   48  22.8N 122.8W      990            48
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   60  23.5N 125.0W      997            41
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   72  23.9N 127.0W     1004            34
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   84  23.9N 128.6W     1008            31
    1200UTC 08.09.2019   96  23.7N 129.7W     1011            25
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  108  23.2N 130.6W     1012            26
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  120  22.7N 132.2W     1013            24
    0000UTC 10.09.2019  132              CEASED TRACKING


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 041559

>

2019-09-04 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 041559

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E        ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 140.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2019  13.4N 140.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.09.2019  12.5N 141.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  12.3N 143.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  12.2N 144.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  11.9N 146.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  11.8N 148.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  11.9N 151.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  12.1N 154.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  12.5N 157.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  13.2N 160.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  14.4N 164.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  15.7N 167.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.09.2019  16.8N 171.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N  63.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2019  33.0N  63.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.09.2019  34.5N  62.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  35.5N  60.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  36.2N  59.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  35.9N  58.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  36.6N  57.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N  79.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.5N  79.4W   INTENSE
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.8N  79.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  32.0N  79.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  33.0N  78.6W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  34.8N  76.7W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  36.7N  73.1W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  40.3N  68.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  44.4N  63.8W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  48.8N  59.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2019  52.7N  54.1W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.09.2019  54.1N  48.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM FERNAND    ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N  96.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2019  23.9N  96.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE  ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N  33.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2019  19.7N  33.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 05.09.2019  20.5N  34.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  22.0N  34.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  23.6N  35.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  25.9N  36.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  28.2N  38.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  30.3N  41.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  30.8N  44.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  31.3N  46.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.09.2019  32.4N  48.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  33.9N  49.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  35.9N  48.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.09.2019  37.7N  47.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 116.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2019  19.1N 116.7W    STRONG
 00UTC 05.09.2019  19.7N 118.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  20.5N 119.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  21.7N 121.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  22.8N 122.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  23.5N 125.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  23.9N 127.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  23.9N 128.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  23.7N 129.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  23.2N 130.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  22.7N 132.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 041559

>

2019-09-04 15:54

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 015
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 116.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 116.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 20.1N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.9N 119.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.8N 121.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.7N 123.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.4N 127.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.0N 131.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 23.0N 135.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 117.3W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 14:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 041448 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A WARM SPOT, WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN
EYE, HAS BEEN SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A 0914Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT, SO ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS PROVIDED BY THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES ALSO SUGGEST
WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS INPUT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
295/5 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STEER JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS JULIETTE WEAKENS,
AND LIKELY LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TRUSTED
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE MOST RECENT NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE TVCE
CORRECTED VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL.

COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,

>

2019-09-04 14:49

WTPZ41 KNHC 041448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Juliette continues to look somewhat ragged in conventional infrared
satellite imagery this morning. A warm spot, which appears to be an
eye, has been showing up intermittently during the past several
hours. A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated the eyewall was open
in the south quadrant, so all indications are that additional
weakening has taken place. The latest subjective and objective
T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also suggest
weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to
85 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is west-northwestward, or
295/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is
expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward at a slightly faster
forward motion during the next few days. Toward the end of the
forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens,
and likely loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system
will be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track
forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous
forecast package. This more closely follows the latest trusted
guidance, especially the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA and the TVCE
corrected variable consensus model.

Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, reduced ocean heat content,
an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone
during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast continues to
show a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous
advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the
weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 19.5N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-09-04 14:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 041433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 117.1 West.  Juliette
is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  Juliette
is expected to move west-northwest at a slightly faster forward
speed during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-09-04 14:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 041432 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

>

2019-09-04 14:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 041432
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-09-04 09:45

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 116.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 116.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 19.5N 117.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.3N 119.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 21.1N 120.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 22.0N 122.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.0N 126.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.0N 130.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.0N 134.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.6W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 08:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

THE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE IN SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND EARLY THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE WARM SPOTS ARE
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A CONSISTENT
WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS PROVIDED BY THE SATELLITE FIX
AGENCIES ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING.  BASED ON THIS
INPUT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NOTE THAT A 0410Z ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND
RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE APPARENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
12 HOURS. FOR THIS ADVISORY, THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/5 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED BY THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STEER JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS JULIETTE WEAKENS AND LOSES MOST OF
ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL THEN LIKELY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE, WITH SOME NUDGING TOWARD
THE MOST RECENT NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE GFEX
CONSENSUS MODEL.

COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN INTRUDING DRY, STABLE,
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD

>

2019-09-04 08:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 040846
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 116.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB (28.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-09-04 08:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 040845 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

>

2019-09-04 08:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 040846
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a
weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are
evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent
well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest
subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix
agencies also continue to show gradual weakening.  Based on this
input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.
Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind
radii for this advisory.

The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous
12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the
circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending
over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States.
This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward
during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of
its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be
steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast
is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward
the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX
consensus model.

Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable,
surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should
cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The
latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening
trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much
of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster
than the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-09-04 08:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 040845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-09-04 04:01

WTNT82 EGRR 040400

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N  66.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 04.09.2019    0  31.7N  66.4W     1014            22
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N  79.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 04.09.2019    0  28.2N  79.0W      959            70
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   12  29.4N  79.7W      955            72
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   24  30.5N  80.2W      948            75
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   36  31.5N  80.2W      950            71
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   48  32.7N  79.0W      947            73
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   60  34.5N  77.3W      954            72
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   72  36.2N  73.8W      957            67
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   84  39.0N  68.9W      945            79
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   96  42.0N  63.8W      948            71
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  108  45.5N  57.4W      967            55
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  120  51.5N  50.7W      982            40
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  132              POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM FERNAND    ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N  95.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 04.09.2019    0  22.8N  95.8W     1004            35
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   12  23.7N  97.0W     1004            31
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   24              CEASED TRACKING

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELL   ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N  32.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 04.09.2019    0  18.6N  32.8W     1010            26
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   12  19.1N  33.8W     1010            28
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   24  20.3N  33.5W     1009            34
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   36  21.1N  34.2W     1008            35
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   48  22.3N  35.4W     1010            31
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   60  23.9N  36.5W     1010            31
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   72  26.5N  38.2W     1011            33
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   84  28.7N  39.6W     1009            34
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   96  31.2N  41.3W     1010            37
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  108  33.3N  43.8W     1010            31
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  120  35.0N  45.2W     1012            28
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  132  36.7N  45.3W     1013            26
    0000UTC 10.09.2019  144  38.4N  45.2W     1012            26

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 115.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 04.09.2019    0  18.9N 115.8W      966            68
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   12  19.2N 117.0W      961            70
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   24  19.8N 118.4W      963            67
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   36  20.7N 119.9W      972            61
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   48  21.9N 121.6W      980            56
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   60  22.7N 123.4W      991            45
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   72  23.5N 125.4W      999            38
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   84  23.5N 127.3W     1005            30
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   96  23.3N 129.2W     1009            27
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  108  22.8N 131.5W     1011            26
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  120  22.5N 133.9W     1012            24
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  132              CEASED TRACKING

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.1N 140.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   24  13.1N 141.2W     1005            25
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   36  12.8N 142.9W     1005            24
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   48  12.6N 143.9W     1003            29
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   60  12.3N 145.6W     1000            39
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   72  12.3N 147.4W      997            42
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   84  12.5N 149.5W      991            54
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   96  12.8N 152.1W      983            58
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  108  13.4N 155.2W      980            62
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  120  14.3N 158.7W      981            62
    1200UTC 09.09.2019  132  15.7N 162.1W      984            59
    0000UTC 10.09.2019  144  17.3N 165.1W      984            55

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 37.2N  60.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   48  37.6N  59.6W     1009            24
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   60  38.8N  57.0W     1007            27
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   72  39.7N  54.9W     1007            29
    1200UTC 07.09.2019   84  43.2N  51.3W     1008            26
    0000UTC 08.09.2019   96              CEASED TRACKING


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 040359

>

2019-09-04 04:01

WTNT80 EGRR 040359

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N  66.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.09.2019  31.7N  66.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N  79.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.09.2019  28.2N  79.0W   INTENSE
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.4N  79.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.5N  80.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  31.5N  80.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  32.7N  79.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  34.5N  77.3W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  36.2N  73.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  39.0N  68.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  42.0N  63.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  45.5N  57.4W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 09.09.2019  51.5N  50.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 09.09.2019  POST-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM FERNAND    ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N  95.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.09.2019  22.8N  95.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.09.2019  23.7N  97.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM GABRIELL   ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N  32.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.09.2019  18.6N  32.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.09.2019  19.1N  33.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2019  20.3N  33.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  21.1N  34.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  22.3N  35.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  23.9N  36.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  26.5N  38.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  28.7N  39.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  31.2N  41.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  33.3N  43.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  35.0N  45.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  36.7N  45.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  38.4N  45.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 115.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.09.2019  18.9N 115.8W    STRONG
 12UTC 04.09.2019  19.2N 117.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  19.8N 118.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  20.7N 119.9W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  21.9N 121.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  22.7N 123.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  23.5N 125.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  23.5N 127.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  23.3N 129.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  22.8N 131.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  22.5N 133.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.1N 140.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.09.2019  13.1N 141.2W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  12.8N 142.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  12.6N 143.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  12.3N 145.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  12.3N 147.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  12.5N 149.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  12.8N 152.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  13.4N 155.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  14.3N 158.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.09.2019  15.7N 162.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.09.2019  17.3N 165.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 37.2N  60.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 06.09.2019  37.6N  59.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  38.8N  57.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  39.7N  54.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  43.2N  51.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 040359

>

2019-09-04 03:34

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 115.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 115.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 19.3N 117.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 20.0N 118.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.8N 120.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.6N 122.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.1N 126.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 23.5N 130.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.5N 134.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 116.3W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 02:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 040234 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

A RECENT AMSR2-GW1 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT JULIETTE'S EYEWALL HAD
COLLAPSED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN
THAT PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAVE BECOME FRAGMENTED
AS WELL. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT JULIETTE IS ON THE DECLINE,
AND BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT THIS RECENT
TREND.  BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN
INTRUDING DRY, STABLE, SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FURTHER, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295/6 KT.  A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JULIETTE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD, A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE AS JULIETTE
DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW DEPRESSION, AND ULTIMATELY, A
REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK,
AND LIES BETWEEN THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND TVCE SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

>

2019-09-04 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 040234
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

A recent AMSR2-GW1 microwave pass showed that Juliette's eyewall had
collapsed in the southwestern quadrant.  Curved banding features in
that portion of the cyclone's cloud pattern have become fragmented
as well. Subsequently, it appears that Juliette is on the decline,
and both subjective and objective T-numbers support this recent
trend.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105
kt for this advisory.  Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an
intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken
further, and continue through the entire forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/6 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States should steer Juliette
west-northwestward through the next several days.  Toward the end
of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette
degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a
remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The
NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track,
and lies between the NOAA HFIP HCCA and TVCE simple multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-04 02:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 040233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...JULIETTE WEAKENS SOME...
...MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 116.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  JULIETTE IS STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).  A MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND REPORTED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-04 02:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 040233 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-04 02:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 040233
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-03 22:13

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 115.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 115.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 19.0N 116.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 19.6N 117.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.3N 119.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 21.1N 121.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 22.6N 125.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 23.5N 129.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 23.5N 132.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 115.7W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 858 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 20:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 032036 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

JULIETTE HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EYE
BECOMING CLOUD FILLED, AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION WEAKENING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 110 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY, AND IT IS PROBABLE JULIETTE IS ABOUT TO GO ON A
DOWNHILL TREND.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE HURRICANE BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED IN THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NORTH OF 20N.  MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS WITHIN 5 KT OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT ALL TIMES.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWED,
NOW 295/6 KT.  THERE'S BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A
SEEMINGLY RELIABLE STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY BENDING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD WITH TIME AND SPEEDING IT
UP DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH.  THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO
REPORT IS A SMALL WESTWARD TREND NOTED IN THE BULK OF THE MODELS,
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
IN THAT DIRECTION, CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

>

2019-09-03 20:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 032036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye
becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the
northeastern quadrant.  The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for
this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a
downhill trend.  This is supported by gradually cooling waters
during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more
embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific
north of 20N.  Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest
NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one
and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times.

The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed,
now 295/6 kt.  There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with
a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a
seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days,
gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it
up due to the ridge building to the north.  The only minor change to
report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models,
similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted
in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 20:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 032031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...JULIETTE MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 115.6W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JULIETTE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM). A MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND WAS STILL
REPORTING HURICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB (28.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-03 20:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 032031 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

>

2019-09-03 20:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 032031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-03 17:26

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 114.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.8N 116.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 19.3N 117.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.9N 118.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6N 120.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.2N 124.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.2N 129.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.5N 132.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 115.1W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 14:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT JULIETTE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
WITH A DISTINCT EYE BECOMING APPARENT IN ADDITION TO A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN.  THE CENTER OF THE EYE MOVED JUST SOUTHWEST
OF CLARION ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO, BRINGING 89-KT SUSTAINED WINDS
AND A WIND GUST TO 113 KT ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY.
A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE JULIETTE MOVES OVER MARGINAL
WATERS, WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING LIKELY AFTERWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SINCE THE PAST
ADVISORY, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE LAST NHC
FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7 KT.  A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE A STEADY STEERING CURRENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GRADUALLY BENDING THE HURRICANE
WESTWARD WITH TIME.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, WITH ONLY
MINOR LONG-RANGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW SHARPLY THE CYCLONE TURNS
WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 H.  THERE'S BEEN A SUBTLE WESTWARD MODEL
SHIFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5, SO THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W  105 KT 120 MPH

>

2019-09-03 14:49

WTPZ41 KNHC 031448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify,
with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more
symmetric cloud pattern.  The center of the eye moved just southwest
of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds
and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy.
A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an
initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory.  Some further
strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal
waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end
of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures.
Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past
advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt.  A large ridge over the
southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current
during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane
westward with time.  Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only
minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns
westward.  The new NHC track prediction is very close to the
previous one through 72 h.  There's been a subtle westward model
shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 14:48

WTPZ31 KNHC 031446 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST. JULIETTE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  JULIETTE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).  A MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 MPH (159 KM/H) WITH A PEAK GUST OF
130 MPH (209 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB (28.14 INCHES)
BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY STATION

>

2019-09-03 14:47

WTPZ31 KNHC 031446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Juliette was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 115.0 West. Juliette is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest to
west-northwest motion is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is
possible today, with weakening forecast to begin by late Wednesday
and continuing through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island recently
reported sustained winds of 99 mph (159 km/h) with a peak gust of
130 mph (209 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches)
based on satellite estimates and data from the Mexican Navy station
on Clarion Island.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 14:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 031445 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

>

2019-09-03 14:46

WTPZ21 KNHC 031445
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-03 10:07

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 114.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 114.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.7N 115.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 19.2N 116.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 19.7N 118.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.4N 120.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 22.0N 124.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.4N 128.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 24.0N 132.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 114.7W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 896 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 08:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 030831 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 03 2019

JULIETTE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 50 KT SINCE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT,
AND THE RECENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB, SAB, AND UW-CIMSS ADT, AND ALSO
THE RECENTLY IMPROVED EYE PATTERN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08 KT. A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF JULIETTE SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BY
DAY 5, A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS JULIETTE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA
AND TVCE TO THE NORTH, AND FSSE TO THE SOUTH.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH JULIETTE POSSIBLY
REACHING CATEGORY 4 STATUS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, COLD
UPWELLING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN, WHICH WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED
BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REGIME. BY DAY 3 AND BEYOND, HOWEVER, MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPWELLING IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS, WITH RAPID
WEAKENING BECOMING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LIES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN

>

2019-09-03 08:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 030830 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  JULIETTE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND JULIETTE COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES (205 KM).  A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON
CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 MPH (91

>

2019-09-03 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 030830 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

>

2019-09-03 08:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 030831
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night,
and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The
initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also
the recently improved eye pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge
located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the
hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By
day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens
considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow.
The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the
previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA
and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south.

Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly
reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold
upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening
trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered
by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level
outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant
upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid
weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then
closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-03 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 030830
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Juliette could become a
category 4 hurricane later today or early Wednesday.  Steady
weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue
through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).  A Mexican Navy automated weather station located on
Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91
km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-03 08:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 030830
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2019-09-03 04:02

WTNT82 EGRR 030400

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  93.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.09.2019    0  22.5N  93.9W     1008            23
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N  29.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.09.2019    0  15.7N  29.8W     1010            21
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   12  17.9N  31.0W     1010            23
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   24  18.4N  32.3W     1010            26
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   36  19.3N  32.1W     1010            31
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   48  20.8N  31.9W     1010            33
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   60  21.4N  32.3W     1009            31
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   72  22.3N  33.1W     1011            29
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   84  23.7N  34.7W     1012            25
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   96  26.4N  36.5W     1012            27
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  108  28.1N  37.6W     1012            27
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  120  29.8N  38.6W     1013            28
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  132  31.7N  40.5W     1014            29
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  144  33.4N  42.9W     1015            28

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N  66.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.09.2019    0  28.4N  66.7W     1013            23
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N  78.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.09.2019    0  26.9N  78.4W      959            73
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   12  27.0N  78.5W      960            67
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   24  27.8N  78.7W      955            73
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   36  29.2N  79.4W      946            80
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   48  30.7N  79.6W      933            87
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   60  32.2N  79.2W      927            91
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   72  33.8N  77.6W      935            82
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   84  35.3N  75.4W      946            74
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   96  37.5N  71.7W      943            75
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  108  40.6N  67.8W      940            70
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  120  44.2N  63.8W      951            56
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  132  48.4N  61.7W      954            58
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  144  50.9N  57.6W      967            50

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 113.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 03.09.2019    0  17.5N 113.9W      984            53
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   12  17.8N 115.4W      978            57
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   24  18.3N 116.5W      974            57
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   36  18.9N 117.7W      968            61
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   48  19.7N 119.6W      961            66
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   60  20.3N 121.6W      967            67
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   72  21.3N 123.6W      978            59
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   84  21.7N 126.1W      988            46
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   96  22.3N 128.7W      994            44
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  108  22.5N 131.3W     1000            41
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  120  22.7N 133.6W     1003            40
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  132  23.0N 136.4W     1004            39
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  144  23.1N 138.9W     1007            36

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N  27.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019   96  14.3N  27.4W     1011            23
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  108  15.5N  29.8W     1010            24
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  120  17.0N  32.5W     1011            24
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  132  18.1N  35.3W     1012            25
    0000UTC 09.09.2019  144  19.5N  37.9W     1014            24


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 030400

>

2019-09-03 04:02

WTNT80 EGRR 030400

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  93.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2019  22.5N  93.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N  29.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2019  15.7N  29.8W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.09.2019  17.9N  31.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  18.4N  32.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2019  19.3N  32.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2019  20.8N  31.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  21.4N  32.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  22.3N  33.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  23.7N  34.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019  26.4N  36.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  28.1N  37.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  29.8N  38.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  31.7N  40.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  33.4N  42.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N  66.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2019  28.4N  66.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N  78.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.9N  78.4W   INTENSE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  27.0N  78.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  27.8N  78.7W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.2N  79.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.7N  79.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  32.2N  79.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  33.8N  77.6W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  35.3N  75.4W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  37.5N  71.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  40.6N  67.8W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  44.2N  63.8W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  48.4N  61.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  50.9N  57.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

             HURRICANE JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 113.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2019  17.5N 113.9W   MODERATE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  17.8N 115.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2019  18.3N 116.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2019  18.9N 117.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  19.7N 119.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  20.3N 121.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  21.3N 123.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  21.7N 126.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  22.3N 128.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  22.5N 131.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  22.7N 133.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  23.0N 136.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  23.1N 138.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N  27.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  14.3N  27.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 07.09.2019  15.5N  29.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  17.0N  32.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  18.1N  35.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.09.2019  19.5N  37.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 030400

>

2019-09-03 03:37

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 113.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 113.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.4N 115.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.9N 116.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 19.4N 117.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.9N 119.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 21.4N 123.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 23.0N 127.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 24.1N 131.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 114.1W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 931 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED GOES-17 IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE IS
UNDERGOING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVOLUTION.  AN EARLIER GMI
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS COMPLETED CLOSED OFF,
AND THIS IS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGES AS A -70C BLACK
RING. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELD 80 KT, BUT SINCE THAT TIME, DUE TO THE MUCH IMPROVED
INNER CORE NOW DEPICTED IN IMAGERY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 100 KT.

RAPID STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION TREND, JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE CONSISTING OF LOW
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A DIFFLUENT UPPER WIND PATTERN, AND WARM OCEANIC
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
FURTHER.  AFTERWARD, A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS
JULIETTE TRAVERSES COOLER WATER AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE, DRIER
MARINE LAYER AIR MASS.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
310/9 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD, OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
JULIETTE, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF ACROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD BEYOND THE 48
HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
DISSIMILARITIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE

>

2019-09-03 02:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 030233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is
undergoing a rapid intensification evolution.  An earlier GMI
microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off,
and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black
ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved
inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised
to 100 kt.

Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so.
Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to
continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low
deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic
temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit
further.  Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as
Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier
marine layer air mass.

Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally
northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric
steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of
Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest.
There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48
hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic
dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge.  The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the
TVCE consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-03 02:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 030232 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

>

2019-09-03 02:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 030233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...JULIETTE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY...
...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 114.0 West.  Juliette is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  The hurricane is
expected to continue at about this forward speed toward the
northwest or west-northwest for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is anticipated
tonight and Tuesday.  Gradual weakening is expected to commence by
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-03 02:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 030232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-02 21:32

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 112.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 112.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 17.6N 114.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.4N 115.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.9N 116.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 19.4N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6N 121.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.5N 126.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.5N 130.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 112.8W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1008 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z
AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 20:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

JULIETTE IS CLEARLY ON THE UPSWING. A BANDING EYE IS PRESENT IN
VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND
1800 UTC WERE ALL NEAR 65 KT. THE IR PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE SINCE THEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 70 KT, MAKING MAKING JULIETTE THE 5TH HURRICANE OF
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON, AND THE FIRST HURRICANE IN THAT
BASIN SINCE JULY 31.

THE HURRICANE HAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENED TODAY AND I SEE NO REASON WHY
THIS WON'T CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, THOUGH THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CERTAINLY SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. IT IS SURPRISING
THAT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS JULIETTE STRENGTHENING VERY QUICKLY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DESPITE THE APPARENT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AND THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS, GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS JULIETTE WEAKENING
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRY ENVIRONMENT.

JULIETTE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/10 KT.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING, AND JULIETTE IS STILL
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY AN EXTENSIVE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST OF JULIETTE

>

2019-09-02 20:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 022035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

...JULIETTE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...THE FIFTH ONE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 113.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THIS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-02 20:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 022036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in
visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around
1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone
has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has
been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that
basin since July 31.

The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why
this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid
intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the
intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising
that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly
during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable
environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current
intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the
intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive
structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again
close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening
quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment.

Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt.
There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still
generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive
deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone.
The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette
for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains
high through that period. The global models then vary on the
strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the
end of the forecast.  For now, the NHC forecast continues to split
the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at
all times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-02 20:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 022034 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

>

2019-09-02 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 022034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-02 16:03

WTNT82 EGRR 021600

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N  64.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 02.09.2019    0  27.5N  64.6W     1014            23
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N  93.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 02.09.2019    0  21.8N  93.0W     1009            19
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N  28.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 02.09.2019    0  15.9N  28.4W     1009            20
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N  78.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 02.09.2019    0  26.7N  78.3W      963            67
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   12  26.9N  78.5W      958            72
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   24  27.0N  78.7W      955            71
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   36  27.9N  79.0W      948            79
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   48  29.2N  79.9W      931            88
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   60  30.5N  79.9W      937            88
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   72  31.8N  79.5W      927            90
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   84  33.5N  78.0W      923            88
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   96  35.0N  76.4W      942            76
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  108  36.4N  73.5W      949            72
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  120  38.6N  69.6W      945            71
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  132  42.3N  64.4W      941            74
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  144  48.9N  59.7W      950            57

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 112.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 02.09.2019    0  16.3N 112.1W      996            41
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   12  17.2N 114.2W      992            43
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   24  17.7N 115.6W      988            45
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   36  18.1N 117.0W      984            55
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   48  18.6N 118.4W      976            59
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   60  19.4N 120.3W      965            67
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   72  19.8N 122.3W      970            66
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   84  20.5N 124.4W      976            59
    1200UTC 06.09.2019   96  21.3N 127.1W      982            54
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  108  22.4N 129.8W      990            51
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  120  23.5N 132.2W      998            43
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  132  24.2N 133.9W     1004            39
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  144  24.7N 135.7W     1009            31

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.6N  25.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  108  15.0N  27.0W     1009            27
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  120  16.2N  29.1W     1008            29
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  132  17.5N  31.4W     1009            27
    1200UTC 08.09.2019  144  18.9N  34.0W     1009            29


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021600

>

2019-09-02 16:01

WTNT80 EGRR 021600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L        ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N  64.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2019  27.5N  64.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L        ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N  93.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2019  21.8N  93.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N  28.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2019  15.9N  28.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 03.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N  78.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2019  26.7N  78.3W    STRONG
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.9N  78.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2019  27.0N  78.7W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  27.9N  79.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.2N  79.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.5N  79.9W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  31.8N  79.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  33.5N  78.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  35.0N  76.4W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  36.4N  73.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  38.6N  69.6W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  42.3N  64.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  48.9N  59.7W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 112.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2019  16.3N 112.1W   MODERATE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  17.2N 114.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2019  17.7N 115.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  18.1N 117.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  18.6N 118.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  19.4N 120.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  19.8N 122.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  20.5N 124.4W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  21.3N 127.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  22.4N 129.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  23.5N 132.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  24.2N 133.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.09.2019  24.7N 135.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.6N  25.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  15.0N  27.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  16.2N  29.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  17.5N  31.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2019  18.9N  34.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021600

>

2019-09-02 15:00

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 112.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 112.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 17.6N 114.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.4N 115.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.9N 116.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 19.4N 118.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6N 121.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.5N 126.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 23.5N 130.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 112.8W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1008 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z
AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 14:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 021441 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

JULIETTE IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION THAT WAS NOTED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS PERSISTED,
AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE. GIVEN THE OBSERVED INCREASE IN JULIETTE'S
ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON FIXES.

JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY, AND RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A REAL POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. BEYOND 48 H, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 72 H THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW QUICKLY JULIETTE WILL WEAKEN SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING ALONG
A SHARP SST GRADIENT. A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NHC FORECAST
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED, WHILE
A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK COULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR
LONGER.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIETTE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
THAT PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH. THE RIDGE COULD

>

2019-09-02 14:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 021441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

...JULIETTE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 112.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING
ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-02 14:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 021441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is nearing hurricane strength. An increase in deep
convection that was noted with the previous advisory has persisted,
and recent microwave data shows that the cyclone has developed a
well-defined inner-core. Given the observed increase in Juliette's
organization, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON fixes.

Juliette is forecast to quickly strengthen today, and rapid
intensification is a real possibility during the next 24 hours or so
given the seemingly favorable environment and the presence of an
low- to mid-level eye in recent microwave data. Beyond 48 h, the
cyclone should begin to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and
encounters a drier surrounding environment. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the multi-model consensus from 72 h through the
end of the period, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to
how quickly Juliette will weaken since it will be moving along
a sharp SST gradient. A track farther north than the NHC forecast
would likely cause Juliette to weaken faster than anticipated, while
a farther south track could allow it to maintain its strength for
longer.

Very little change was made to the track forecast. A deep-layer
ridge to the northeast of Juliette should keep it on a generally
west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 3 or 4 days
days. The track guidance is particularly tightly clustered through
that period and confidence in the forecast is high. The ridge could
amplify by day 5 and cause Juliette to turn westward, as shown most
notably by the ECMWF, though confidence is a little lower at that
time. The NHC forecast is very near TVCE and HCCA at all times and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 16.7N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-02 14:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 021440 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-02 14:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 021440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE  70SE  30SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-02 09:16

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 111.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 111.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 17.0N 113.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.9N 114.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.5N 116.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 19.0N 117.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.0N 121.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 21.5N 125.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 23.0N 129.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 111.9W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1056 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 08:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 020840 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

AFTER STRUGGLING TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 12-H PERIOD DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, A STRONG BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR
-90C, HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A NEARLY CIRCULAR CDO FEATURE HAS ALSO FORMED OVER THE
CENTER, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND EXPANDED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, SSMI/S AND AMSU MICROWAVE
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A PRIMITIVE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD
FORMED, AND RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
UW-CIMSS SATCON WERE T3.5/55 KT AND 57 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 300/12 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR RATIONALE. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE, DRIVING JULIETTE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.

NOW THAT A NEARLY COMPLETE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS FORMED, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
JULIETTE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR 5 KT, AN
UNHINDERED OUTFLOW PATTERN, AND A MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ALONG

>

2019-09-02 08:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 020840
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

After struggling to strengthen during the previous 12-h period due
to the entrainment of mid-level dry air, a strong burst of deep
convection, accompanied by frequent lightning and cloud tops near
-90C, has developed near the well-defined low-level circulation
center. A nearly circular CDO feature has also formed over the
center, and the upper-level outflow has improved and expanded in all
quadrants. During the past few hours, SSMI/S and AMSU microwave
satellite data indicate that a primitive mid-level eye feature had
formed, and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
UW-CIMSS SATCON were T3.5/55 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based on
these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion is estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or rationale. A deep-layer
ridge anchored to the north of Juliette is expected to change
little, driving Juliette on a general west-northwestward track
throughout the 5-day period. As a result, the new NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the
middle of the tightly clustered model guidance.

Now that a nearly complete mid-level eye feature has formed, rapid
intensification is expected to occur during the next 24 hours due to
Juliette being embedded within very favorable environmental
conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear near 5 kt, an
unhindered outflow pattern, and a moist mid-level environment, along
with traversing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C.
Thereafter, a slower rate of strengthening is expected through 36-48
hours due to the cyclone moving over marginal SSTs. Steady weakening
is forecast on days 3-5 when Juliette will be moving over sub-26C
SSTs despite low shear conditions. The new official intensity
forecast is a little above all of the available intensity guidance,
and shows the same peak intensity as the previous advisory, except
that the time of occurrence has been moved forward by 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 16.2N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-02 08:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 020839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

...JULIETTE STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 111.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H).  A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-02 08:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 020839 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-02 08:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 020839
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-02 04:08

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 110.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 110.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 16.3N 112.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 17.4N 114.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.1N 115.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.6N 117.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 19.5N 120.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 20.8N 124.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 22.4N 128.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 110.8W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1123 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 04:00

WTNT82 EGRR 020359

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N  26.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 02.09.2019    0  15.8N  26.4W     1009            21
    1200UTC 02.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N  77.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 02.09.2019    0  26.6N  77.6W      971            69
    1200UTC 02.09.2019   12  26.7N  78.3W      968            64
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   24  26.8N  78.6W      962            66
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   36  27.2N  78.8W      956            70
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   48  28.3N  79.4W      946            84
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   60  29.7N  80.1W      929            90
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   72  30.8N  80.0W      938            85
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   84  32.2N  79.0W      929            88
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   96  34.0N  77.4W      932            81
    1200UTC 06.09.2019  108  35.7N  75.5W      945            69
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  120  37.5N  72.2W      947            68
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  132  40.5N  68.4W      944            70
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  144  45.9N  62.6W      950            64

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 110.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 02.09.2019    0  15.0N 110.4W     1000            36
    1200UTC 02.09.2019   12  16.0N 112.0W      996            40
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   24  16.8N 113.9W      991            42
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   36  17.2N 115.3W      987            49
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   48  17.8N 116.5W      982            57
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   60  18.3N 117.9W      974            61
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   72  18.9N 120.2W      959            71
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   84  19.2N 122.2W      967            67
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   96  19.8N 124.5W      973            64
    1200UTC 06.09.2019  108  20.3N 127.0W      979            56
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  120  21.3N 129.8W      985            54
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  132  22.3N 132.4W      991            48
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  144  23.3N 134.3W      996            49

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N  30.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   36  17.2N  30.6W     1009            25
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   48  18.1N  30.5W     1010            27
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   60  19.8N  30.3W     1009            33
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   72  20.4N  30.7W     1009            32
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   84  21.7N  31.1W     1010            27
    0000UTC 06.09.2019   96  22.7N  32.6W     1012            26
    1200UTC 06.09.2019  108  24.1N  34.7W     1012            24
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  120              CEASED TRACKING

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N  24.8W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  120  16.4N  26.1W     1009            24
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  132  17.5N  28.7W     1009            26
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  144  19.2N  31.4W     1010            28

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.4N 147.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  132  11.4N 147.0W     1007            25
    0000UTC 08.09.2019  144  11.7N 149.5W     1005            31


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 020359

>

2019-09-02 04:00

WTNT80 EGRR 020359

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N  26.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.09.2019  15.8N  26.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 02.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N  77.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.09.2019  26.6N  77.6W    STRONG
 12UTC 02.09.2019  26.7N  78.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.8N  78.6W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2019  27.2N  78.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2019  28.3N  79.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.7N  80.1W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.8N  80.0W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  32.2N  79.0W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  34.0N  77.4W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  35.7N  75.5W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  37.5N  72.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  40.5N  68.4W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  45.9N  62.6W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 110.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.09.2019  15.0N 110.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 02.09.2019  16.0N 112.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  16.8N 113.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2019  17.2N 115.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2019  17.8N 116.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  18.3N 117.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  18.9N 120.2W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  19.2N 122.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  19.8N 124.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  20.3N 127.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  21.3N 129.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  22.3N 132.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2019  23.3N 134.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N  30.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.09.2019  17.2N  30.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.09.2019  18.1N  30.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2019  19.8N  30.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.09.2019  20.4N  30.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2019  21.7N  31.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  22.7N  32.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2019  24.1N  34.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N  24.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.09.2019  16.4N  26.1W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  17.5N  28.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.09.2019  19.2N  31.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.4N 147.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.09.2019  11.4N 147.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.09.2019  11.7N 149.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 020358

>

2019-09-02 02:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 020241 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW DEEP BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS EVENING, THE BANDING FEATURES STILL
REMAIN QUITE FRAGMENTED.  THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS A RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON ANALYSIS, SUPPORT
HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDICATIVE OF LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A
MOIST MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, AND WARM OCEANIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER 72 HOURS, JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER
DECREASING SSTS, AND INTO A HIGH STATICALLY STABLE MARINE LAYER AIR
MASS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE
IVCN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
300/11 KT WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME, THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN STILL INDICATE THE CYCLONE
TURNING WESTWARD DUE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHILE THE GFS, HWRF, AND THE UKMET REFLECT LESS RIDGING, AND

>

2019-09-02 02:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 020241
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the
center of circulation this evening, the banding features still
remain quite fragmented.  The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support
holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate
during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a
moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface
temperatures.  After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over
decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air
mass which should induce gradual weakening.  The NHC forecast
follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a
mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from
the southwestern United States.  The cyclone should continue moving
west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction
in forward speed during the next 48 hours.  Beyond that time, the
cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to
large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical
ridge.  The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone
turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge,
while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and
induce a more northwestward track.  The new official forecast is
nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE
consensus and the ECMWF global.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-02 02:43

WTPZ31 KNHC 020240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 110.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST.  JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.


TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-02 02:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 020240 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-02 02:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 020240
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-01 21:28

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 109.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 109.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 15.9N 111.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 17.0N 113.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.9N 114.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 18.5N 116.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 19.5N 119.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 21.0N 122.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 23.0N 127.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 109.8W.
01SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1176 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND
022200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-01 20:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 012041 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

JULIETTE'S PRESENTATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE, WITH HINTS OF A BANDING EYE NOW PRESENT.  THAT SAID,
THE CONVECTION IN THE CYCLONE'S BANDS IS NOT THAT DEEP, AND RECENT
ASCAT DATA STILL SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 11 KT, STEERED PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT JULIETTE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS,
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT, DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORECASTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE RESULT IN A LARGER MODEL
SPREAD. THE ECMWF SHOWS JULIETTE TURNING NEARLY WESTWARD DUE TO AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE, WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS THAT THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN, CAUSING JULIETTE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH. THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEARLY DIRECTLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS AND LIES VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT ALL FORECAST HOURS, BUT ITS WORTH
NOTING THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT 96 H
AND BEYOND.

LOW WIND SHEAR, A WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN, AND SUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE RATE AT WHICH THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL STRENGTHEN, AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO.
SUBSEQUENTLY, NO MAJOR CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
AND JULIETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. BY

>

2019-09-01 20:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 012041
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued
to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present.  That said,
the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent
ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt.

No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving
northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette
will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days,
with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in
the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model
spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an
amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge
will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC
forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very
close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth
noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h
and beyond.

Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient
environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the
next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the
tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification
guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago.
Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast,
and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By
the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over
cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should
cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north
than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette
takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could
maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-01 20:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 012040
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 109.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H).  A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-01 20:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 012039 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-01 20:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 012039
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-01 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 011559

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N  24.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 01.09.2019    0  15.6N  24.3W     1010            20
    0000UTC 02.09.2019   12              CEASED TRACKING

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N  76.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 01.09.2019    0  26.4N  76.2W      987            56
    0000UTC 02.09.2019   12  26.5N  77.4W      981            60
    1200UTC 02.09.2019   24  26.7N  78.1W      972            66
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   36  26.6N  78.4W      960            72
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   48  26.7N  78.5W      953            70
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   60  27.8N  78.8W      946            78
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   72  29.0N  79.5W      927            93
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   84  30.3N  79.4W      938            84
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   96  32.0N  78.3W      934            81
    0000UTC 06.09.2019  108  34.1N  76.6W      924            91
    1200UTC 06.09.2019  120  35.8N  73.9W      933            76
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  132  38.6N  69.2W      932            78
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  144  43.1N  63.9W      944            68

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 108.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 01.09.2019    0  13.7N 108.2W     1004            31
    0000UTC 02.09.2019   12  14.7N 110.3W     1001            31
    1200UTC 02.09.2019   24  15.8N 112.0W      997            36
    0000UTC 03.09.2019   36  16.8N 113.9W      993            40
    1200UTC 03.09.2019   48  17.3N 115.5W      989            48
    0000UTC 04.09.2019   60  17.9N 117.0W      984            58
    1200UTC 04.09.2019   72  18.2N 118.5W      974            60
    0000UTC 05.09.2019   84  18.7N 120.3W      964            66
    1200UTC 05.09.2019   96  19.4N 122.3W      965            65
    0000UTC 06.09.2019  108  20.3N 124.7W      969            65
    1200UTC 06.09.2019  120  21.3N 127.3W      979            54
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  132  22.8N 129.5W      991            46
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  144  24.5N 130.5W      998            41

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N  24.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 06.09.2019  120  14.2N  24.2W     1010            23
    0000UTC 07.09.2019  132  15.3N  27.4W     1009            29
    1200UTC 07.09.2019  144  16.9N  29.8W     1009            27


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 011559

>

2019-09-01 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 011559

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N  24.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.09.2019  15.6N  24.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 02.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N  76.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.09.2019  26.4N  76.2W   MODERATE
 00UTC 02.09.2019  26.5N  77.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2019  26.7N  78.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.6N  78.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2019  26.7N  78.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2019  27.8N  78.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.0N  79.5W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  30.3N  79.4W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  32.0N  78.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2019  34.1N  76.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  35.8N  73.9W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  38.6N  69.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  43.1N  63.9W   INTENSE     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

        TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE   ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 108.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 01.09.2019  13.7N 108.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 02.09.2019  14.7N 110.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2019  15.8N 112.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2019  16.8N 113.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  17.3N 115.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  17.9N 117.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  18.2N 118.5W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.09.2019  18.7N 120.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.09.2019  19.4N 122.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.09.2019  20.3N 124.7W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.09.2019  21.3N 127.3W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2019  22.8N 129.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2019  24.5N 130.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N  24.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.09.2019  14.2N  24.2W     WEAK
 00UTC 07.09.2019  15.3N  27.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.09.2019  16.9N  29.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 011559

>

2019-09-01 15:06

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 108.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 108.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 15.4N 110.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 16.5N 112.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 17.4N 114.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 18.1N 115.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 19.2N 118.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.5N 121.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.5N 125.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 108.9W.
01SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1229 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND
021600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-01 14:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 011441 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

JULIETTE HAS BEEN QUICKLY ORGANIZING THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
FORMED, WITH A LARGE BAND ON THE EAST SIDE.  THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT, IN LINE WITH THE RECENT CIMSS OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE SINCE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE STILL CATCHING
UP WITH THIS STORM.

THERE'S BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY AND SIZE
FORECASTS OF JULIETTE THIS MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A
STRONGER AND LARGER HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE EARLY STAGES OF AN INNER CORE,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE.
INDEED, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY DUE TO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER, AND THE VARIOUS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE ALL SHOWING THIS CHANCE.  THUS THE
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE LAST ONE, SIMILAR TO THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, AND FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM IS MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIETTE SHOULD STEER THE
STORM ON THIS GENERAL PATH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, CLOSE TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-09-01 14:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 011441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning.  Satellite and
microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has
formed, with a large band on the east side.  The current wind
speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching
up with this storm.

There's been a significant change to the intensity and size
forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a
stronger and larger hurricane in about a day.  This is consistent
with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core,
which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace.
Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an
environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid
intensification indices are all showing this chance.  Thus the
forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected
consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be
required this afternoon.

Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this
morning.  A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the
storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a
slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is
in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern
Pacific model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-01 14:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 011440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...JULIETTE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 108.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING COULD BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-01 14:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 011440 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-01 14:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 011440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2019-09-01 09:40

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311421ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 001
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 107.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 107.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 14.5N 109.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 15.7N 111.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 16.7N 113.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 17.6N 115.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 18.9N 118.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.0N 121.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 21.8N 124.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 108.1W.
01SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1296 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 311430).//
NNNN

>

2019-09-01 08:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 010832 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SURFACE WIND DATA AROUND 0400 UTC INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED PEAK SURFACE
WINDS OF 42 KT, WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY RAIN INFLATED, AND AN
ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 39 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE WIND DATA, THE LOW HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 40-KT TROPICAL
STORM, THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/06 KT. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LOCATIONS OF THE MID- AND
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NOTED IN THE ASCAT-C WIND DATA DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
RECENT BURSTS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, THE TRACK
FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
JULIETTE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY
PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND TVCE.

JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

>

2019-09-01 08:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 010831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-01 08:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 010831 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W

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2019-09-01 08:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 010832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Earlier scatterometer surface wind data around 0400 UTC indicate
that the low pressure system located about 400 nmi south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, had become better defined and that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring in the northern
semicircle. More specifically, an ASCAT-A pass revealed peak surface
winds of 42 kt, which could have been slightly rain inflated, and an
ASCAT-C pass showed peak winds of 39 kt. Based on a blend of
these wind data, the low has been upgraded to a 40-kt tropical
storm, the tenth tropical storm of the 2019 eastern North Pacific
hurricane season.

Juliette's initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/06 kt. The
advisory position is an average of the locations of the mid- and
low-level circulation centers, in anticipation of the low-level
center noted in the ASCAT-C wind data developing closer to the
recent bursts of central deep convection. Otherwise, the track
forecast is pretty straight-forward with the NHC model guidance in
good agreement on maintaining the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Juliette throughout the forecast period. This steering pattern
should result in the cyclone moving slowly northwestward today,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed on Monday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing
through 120 hours. The NHC forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed consensus models HCCA and TVCE.

Juliette is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification to occur over the next 48-72 hours or so, which is
characterized by low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a
moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures (SST) of
28-29 deg C. Therefore, the official intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening, with Juliette expected to become a hurricane
on Monday. By 96 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs around
26 deg C and cooler, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is above the consensus intensity models HCCA and
IVCN, and is close to a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity
models and the dynamical HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-01 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 010831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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