Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

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2019-11-08 14:32

WTIO51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191108135100
2019110812 23W MATMO 013 01 010 10 SATL 040
T000 187N 0880E 085 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 202N 0883E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 216N 0890E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 228N 0902E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 234N 0914E 035
T072 232N 0923E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.2N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.6N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.8N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4N 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2N 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 88.1E.
08NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 134N 924E 25
2319110418 133N 917E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 898E 35
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110800 169N 876E 75
2319110800 169N 876E 75
2319110800 169N 876E 75
2319110806 177N 878E 85
2319110806 177N 878E 85
2319110806 177N 878E 85
2319110812 187N 880E 85
2319110812 187N 880E 85
2319110812 187N 880E 85
NNNN

>

2019-11-08 14:32

WTIO31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 88.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 88.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.2N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.6N 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.8N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4N 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2N 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 88.1E.
08NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 081200Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND 081037Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 23W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE
OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C). THE 081037Z SSMIS IMAGERY INDICATES A
WIDE DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION,
TO THE EAST, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, TO THE
WEST, INDICATIVE OF A STRONG WESTWARD TILT, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
OBSERVED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PATTERN. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA. POLEWARD MOTION
ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS, CARRYING THE SYSTEM TO LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER
BETWEEN INDIA AND BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 24 AND INLAND THEREAFTER.
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO PASSAGE OVER LAND
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES
BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, CAUSING THE CIRCULATION TO DRIFT EASTWARD
AND POSSIBLY EQUATORWARD OVER LAND. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETS THE
IMPACTS OF A SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OBSERVED FORWARD TRACK SPEED HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS HAVE MODEL FORECAST
TRACK SPEEDS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS A BIT
FASTER, AND THE PROJECTED LANDFALL TIME A BIT EARLIER, THAN REFLECTED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-08 09:02

WTIO51 PGTW 080900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191108081241
2019110806 23W MATMO 012 01 015 08 SATL 040
T000 177N 0878E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 193N 0879E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 208N 0884E 080 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 220N 0892E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 228N 0902E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 231N 0917E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-08 09:02

WTIO31 PGTW 080900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.3N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-08 08:54

WTIO51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191108081241
2019110806 23W MATMO 012 01 015 08 SATL 040
T000 177N 0878E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 193N 0879E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 208N 0884E 080 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 220N 0892E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 228N 0902E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 231N 0917E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.3N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.8N 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.0N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.8N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.1N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 87.8E.
08NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND
090900Z.//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 134N 924E 25
2319110418 133N 917E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 898E 35
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110800 169N 876E 75
2319110800 169N 876E 75
2319110800 169N 876E 75
2319110806 177N 878E 85
2319110806 177N 878E 85
2319110806 177N 878E 85
NNNN

>

2019-11-08 08:53

WTIO31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 87.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.3N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.8N 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.0N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.8N 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.1N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 87.8E.
08NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 080600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 080411Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 23W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 15 KNOTS, BUT INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD. THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. TC 23W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA. POLEWARD MOTION ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CARRYING THE SYSTEM TOWARD LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN INDIA AND BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 36. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES OVER LAND AND CONTENDS WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AFTER TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL, AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER DUE TO DIFFERING FORECASTS OF THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND TRANSITION TO LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVER-WATER PORTION OF THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THE LANDFALL POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-08 05:12

WTIO31 PGTW 080300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.4N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.9N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.0N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.1N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.4N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.8N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED OVER LAND
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 87.5E.
08NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 072324Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WELL-DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM KNES AND DEMS AS WELL AS A
080015Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.9 (63 KTS), AND IS
BELOW T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (MITIGATED BY STORM MOTION IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW), EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL
(EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP), AND VERY WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL CAUSE THE STR TO ERODE, ALLOWING 23W TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD
THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA
AROUND TAU 48 NEAR THE INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER THEN DRAG INLAND INTO
THE BANGLADESHI INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 72
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE INDIAN PENINSULA, BLOWING THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BACK SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
PICKED UP IN THE PASSING WESTERLIES, DECAPITATING THE SYSTEM. THE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS 23W
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND LANDFALL, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 96. HOWEVER, IN THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO,
THE LOW LYING, MARSHY TERRAIN MAY ENABLE THE CIRCULATION TO SURVIVE
FURTHER INLAND THAN EXPECTED, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY THEN STEER THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, GFS, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND
THE UKMET ENSEMBLE REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TURN TO THE
SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, GIVING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-08 03:25

WTIO51 PGTW 080300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191108022710
2019110800 23W MATMO 011 01 350 06 SATL 040
T000 169N 0875E 075 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 085 SE QD
090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 184N 0875E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 199N 0877E 090 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 210N 0883E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 221N 0892E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 234N 0910E 040 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 228N 0910E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-08 03:04

WTIO51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191108022710
2019110800 23W MATMO 011 01 350 06 SATL 040
T000 169N 0875E 075 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 184N 0875E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 199N 0877E 090 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 210N 0883E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 221N 0892E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 234N 0910E 040 R034 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 228N 0910E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.4N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.9N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.0N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.1N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.4N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.8N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 87.5E.
08NOV19. TYPHOON 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 134N 924E 25
2319110418 133N 917E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 898E 35
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110718 163N 876E 65
2319110718 163N 876E 65
2319110718 163N 876E 65
2319110800 169N 875E 75
2319110800 169N 875E 75
2319110800 169N 875E 75
NNNN

>

2019-11-08 03:03

WTIO31 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.4N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-08 03:01

WTIO31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.4N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.9N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.0N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.1N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.4N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.8N 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 87.5E.
08NOV19. TYPHOON 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 072324Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WELL-DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM KNES AND DEMS AS WELL AS A
080015Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.9 (63 KTS), AND IS
BELOW T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (MITIGATED BY STORM MOTION IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW), EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL
(EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP), AND VERY WARM (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL CAUSE THE STR TO ERODE, ALLOWING 23W TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD
THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA
AROUND TAU 48 NEAR THE INDIA-BANGLADESH BORDER THEN DRAG INLAND INTO
THE BANGLADESHI INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 72
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
IN OVER THE INDIAN PENINSULA, BLOWING THE WEAKENED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BACK SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
PICKED UP IN THE PASSING WESTERLIES, DECAPITATING THE SYSTEM. THE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS 23W
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND LANDFALL, WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 96. HOWEVER, IN THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO,
THE LOW LYING, MARSHY TERRAIN MAY ENABLE THE CIRCULATION TO SURVIVE
FURTHER INLAND THAN EXPECTED, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 700MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY THEN STEER THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
BACK OUT OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, GFS, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND
THE UKMET ENSEMBLE REFLECT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TURN TO THE
SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, GIVING POOR CONFIDENCE TO THE LONG-TERM JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 21:04

WTIO51 PGTW 072100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107192135
2019110718 23W MATMO 010 01 320 06 SATL 025
T000 162N 0877E 065 R064 005 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 085 SE QD
090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 176N 0875E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 191N 0876E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 203N 0880E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 213N 0888E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD
040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 227N 0905E 040 R034 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 229N 0911E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-11-07 21:00

WTIO51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107192135
2019110718 23W MATMO 010 01 320 06 SATL 025
T000 162N 0877E 065 R064 005 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 176N 0875E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 191N 0876E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 203N 0880E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 213N 0888E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 227N 0905E 040 R034 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 229N 0911E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.3N 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.3N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.7N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.9N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 87.7E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND
082100Z.//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 134N 924E 25
2319110418 133N 917E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 898E 35
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110712 157N 881E 55
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110718 162N 877E 65
2319110718 162N 877E 65
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 20:42

WTIO31 PGTW 072100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-07 20:30

WTIO31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6N 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.3N 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.3N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.7N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.9N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 87.7E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEEPEN
AS RAIN BANDS CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT IS OBSCURED BY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 071451Z GPM IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(<15KTS) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (MITIGATED BY STORM MOTION IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW), EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
VIGOROUS POLEWARD CHANNEL (EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP), AND VERY WARM
(>30C) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY OF BENGAL.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA AROUND TAU 48 NEAR THE INDIA-
BANGLADESH BORDER THEN DRAG INLAND INTO THE BANGLADESHI INTERIOR.
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS AT TAU 48. AFTERWARD, RELATIVE
VWS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ITS TOLL AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE CYCLONE.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE ADDITION OF RUGGED TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND, BY TAU 96, WILL DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF AS THE NOTABLE
LEFT OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 15:27

WTIO51 PGTW 071500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107134419
2019110712 23W MATMO 009 01 335 11 SATL 050
T000 160N 0882E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 172N 0877E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 187N 0876E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 200N 0878E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 211N 0883E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 224N 0894E 050 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 120 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 231N 0904E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

>

2019-11-07 15:25

WTIO51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107134419
2019110712 23W MATMO 009 01 335 11 SATL 050
T000 160N 0882E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 172N 0877E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 187N 0876E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 200N 0878E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 211N 0883E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 224N 0894E 050 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 231N 0904E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.7N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.0N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.1N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.4N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.1N 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 88.1E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 134N 924E 25
2319110418 133N 917E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 898E 35
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110712 160N 882E 55
2319110712 160N 882E 55
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 15:19

WTIO31 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-07 15:17

WTIO31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.7N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.0N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.1N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.4N 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.1N 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 88.1E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO AN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED
BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 071231Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
AND A 071042Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. TC 23W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. TC 23W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 60 IN EASTERN INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, RAPID
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND
INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE WESTERLIES. MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS PREDICT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BEFORE CHANGING COURSE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK AS AS RIDGING REORIENTS OVER EASTERN INDIA. THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE PRIMARY MODEL ENVELOPE, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE SECONDARY SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 09:27

WTIO31 PGTW 070900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-07 09:12

WTIO31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.2N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.7N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 88.5E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ASCAT DATA FROM 070245Z AND 070400Z, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS
POSITION LIES APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE (60 NM) TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY-ANALYZED TRACK. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES, AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA. TC 23W IS
TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C). CONTINUED
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY AT A RAPID RATE,
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION RELOCATION, BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED. TC 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, SLOW OR MEANDERING MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES UNDER SHARPLY STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND THE STEERING LEVEL SHIFTS TO THE LOWER-LEVELS. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS PREDICT A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING
RIDGE AND A STORM TRACK A FEW DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE PRIMARY
GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE PRIMARY
MODEL ENVELOPE, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN NOTED MODEL
DIFFERENCES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 09:06

WTIO51 PGTW 070900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107075953
2019110706 23W MATMO 008A 01 315 07 SATL 025
T000 150N 0887E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 161N 0879E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD
075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 175N 0876E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD
085 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 187N 0876E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD
090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 198N 0878E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 212N 0888E 050 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 217N 0897E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-11-07 09:04

WTIO51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107075953
2019110706 23W MATMO 008A 01 315 07 SATL 025
T000 150N 0887E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 161N 0879E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 175N 0876E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 187N 0876E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 198N 0878E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 212N 0888E 050 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 217N 0897E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 008 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.2N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.7N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 88.5E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 134N 924E 25
2319110418 133N 917E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 898E 35
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110700 145N 892E 50
2319110706 150N 887E 55
2319110706 150N 887E 55
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 02:54

WTIO31 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.5N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-11-07 02:49

WTIO31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.5N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.6N 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.1N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.8N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.7N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.9N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 89.9E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE EIR BD
ENHANCEMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 062237Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED A
RELATIVELY BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WRAPPING INTO THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. WHILE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS), KNES REPORTED A T4.0 (65 KNOTS). IN LIGHT OF
THIS, A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AT 061532Z AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL EYE FEATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. TS 23W LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, ROBUST DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VWS. THE VWS VECTOR IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING IN
PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, SO NET SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE
ENVIORONMENTAL SHEAR WOULD INDICATE, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP STR CENTERED OVER NORTHERN THAILAND. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN, STEERING
WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND TS 23W WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
WHILE TURNING EASTWARD IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. TS 23W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER INCREASING VWS AND
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE
NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BY TAU 120. THERE IS OVERALL STRONG AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF TS 23W THROUGH TAU 72. THE NOTABLE
OUTLIER BEING THE ECMWF, WHICH FAVORS A A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND NO RECURVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERAGE
AFTER TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WITH GALWEM, NAVGEM AND GFS
ENSEMBLE ALL TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO EASTERN BANGLADESH, WHILE THE
GFS, JGSM AND UKMET MEMBERS TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND KEEP IT IN THE BAY OF BENGAL THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK LIES
JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THEOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AND JUST
AHEAD AND NORTH AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-11-07 02:45

WTIO51 PGTW 070300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107021139
2019110700 23W MATMO 007 01 360 06 SATL 060
T000 145N 0900E 050 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 155N 0895E 065 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165N 0889E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 176N 0886E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 191N 0887E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 208N 0893E 070 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD
110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 217N 0903E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 219N 0911E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-11-07 02:43

WTIO51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191107021139
2019110700 23W MATMO 007 01 360 06 SATL 060
T000 145N 0900E 050 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 155N 0895E 065 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 165N 0889E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 176N 0886E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 191N 0887E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 208N 0893E 070 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 217N 0903E 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 219N 0911E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.5N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.6N 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.1N 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.8N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.7N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.9N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 89.9E.
07NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLCC. A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE EIR BD ENHANCEMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 062237Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED A RELATIVELY BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC WRAPPING INTO THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHILE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS), KNES REPORTED A T4.0 (65 KNOTS). IN LIGHT OF THIS, A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AT 061532Z AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL EYE FEATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. TS 23W LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, ROBUST DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VWS. THE VWS VECTOR IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION, SO NET SHEAR IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE ENVIORONMENTAL SHEAR WOULD INDICATE, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR CENTERED OVER NORTHERN THAILAND. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN, STEERING WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND TS 23W WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE TURNING EASTWARD IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL BY TAU 120. THERE IS OVERALL STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF TS 23W THROUGH TAU 72. THE NOTABLE OUTLIER BEING THE ECMWF, WHICH FAVORS A A STRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NO RECURVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERAGE AFTER TAU 96, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WITH GALWEM, NAVGEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALL TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO EASTERN BANGLADESH, WHILE THE GFS, JGSM AND UKMET MEMBERS TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND KEEP IT IN THE BAY OF BENGAL THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THEOUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AND JUST AHEAD AND NORTH AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 72, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 137N 922E 25
2319110418 132N 919E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 134N 898E 30
2319110612 136N 899E 30
2319110618 139N 900E 35
2319110700 145N 900E 50
NNNN

>

2019-11-06 20:51

WTIO31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.7N 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.0N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.1N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.0N 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 90.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER TOP OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION
FROM A 061413Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE. THE INTIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON THe AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE AND
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND JTWC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE WARM (28-29 CELISUS) AND ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO TURN AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DIRECTION.
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, 23W WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETITIVE
STEERING FEATURES WITH ONE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA AND ONE STR TO THE NORTHWEST
LOCATED OVER INDIA. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR OVER THE INDOCHINA
PENINSULA TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND THE SYSTEM
RECURVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48, EVENTUALLY
REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BRINGING INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THE PRINCIPLE
OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH FAVORS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER
TAU 72, THE WEAKENED NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS CAUSES THE MODELS TO
DIVERGE RAPIDLY. DESPITE THE SPREAD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-11-06 20:41

WTIO51 PGTW 062100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191106200928
2019110618 23W MATMO 006 02 045 04 SATL 035
T000 137N 0904E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 147N 0900E 045 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 158N 0892E 060 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 170N 0889E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 183N 0889E 070 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD
080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 201N 0893E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 210N 0901E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-06 20:30

WTIO31 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.7N 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-11-06 20:29

WTIO51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 191106200928
2019110618 23W MATMO 006 02 045 04 SATL 035
T000 137N 0904E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 147N 0900E 045 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 158N 0892E 060 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 170N 0889E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 183N 0889E 070 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 201N 0893E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 210N 0901E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 90.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 90.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.7N 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.0N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.1N 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.0N 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 90.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MATMO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2319102418 79N1371E 15
2319102500 80N1364E 15
2319102506 80N1355E 15
2319102512 80N1344E 15
2319102518 75N1331E 15
2319102600 73N1319E 15
2319102606 71N1306E 15
2319102612 72N1291E 15
2319102618 75N1279E 15
2319102700 75N1272E 15
2319102706 78N1262E 15
2319102712 78N1249E 15
2319102718 80N1220E 15
2319102800 84N1196E 15
2319102806 93N1188E 20
2319102812 102N1181E 20
2319102818 110N1170E 20
2319102900 114N1162E 20
2319102906 119N1152E 20
2319102912 122N1141E 20
2319102918 128N1128E 25
2319103000 130N1119E 35
2319103006 132N1110E 40
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103012 134N1101E 50
2319103018 136N1088E 45
2319103100 139N1072E 35
2319103106 138N1062E 30
2319103112 137N1047E 25
2319103118 138N1029E 20
2319110100 139N1014E 15
2319110106 142N1002E 15
2319110112 141N 996E 15
2319110118 140N 991E 15
2319110200 138N 987E 15
2319110206 136N 981E 15
2319110212 135N 976E 15
2319110218 134N 971E 15
2319110300 133N 966E 15
2319110306 133N 960E 15
2319110312 133N 954E 15
2319110318 133N 949E 15
2319110400 133N 942E 15
2319110406 135N 933E 20
2319110412 137N 922E 25
2319110418 132N 919E 20
2319110500 132N 910E 20
2319110506 130N 906E 25
2319110512 130N 900E 25
2319110518 130N 897E 30
2319110600 132N 897E 30
2319110606 133N 898E 30
2319110612 134N 901E 30
2319110618 137N 904E 35
NNNN

>

2019-10-31 03:56

WTKO20 RKSL 310300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 1922 MATMO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 310300UTC 13.5N 106.1E
MOVEMENT W 19KT
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

2019-10-31 01:32

WTSS20 VHHH 310145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 310000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1922) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE
ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

2019-10-31 00:58

WTKO20 RKSL 310000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1922 MATMO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 310000UTC 13.5N 107.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 24KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 311200UTC 13.8N 104.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1006HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

2019-10-30 19:34

WTSS20 VHHH 301945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1922) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4
N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000011600
46315

>

2019-10-30 16:33

WTSS20 VHHH 301645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 301500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1922) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3
N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

2019-10-30 10:34

WTSS20 VHHH 301045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1922) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310900 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

2019-10-30 07:34

WTSS20 VHHH 300745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1922) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310600 UTC
ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000033600
42677

>

2019-10-30 04:33

WTSS20 VHHH 300445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 300300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MATMO (1922) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC
ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>