Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RITA-19
in Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 261500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191126133856
2019112612 01P RITA 011 01 195 04 SATL 040
T000 144S 1696E 035 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 150S 1692E 035 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 155S 1688E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 261500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.5S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191126133856
2019112612 01P RITA 011 01 195 04 SATL 040
T000 144S 1696E 035 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 150S 1692E 035 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 155S 1688E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.5S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 169.5E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 100S1683E 40
0119112406 102S1688E 45
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112506 122S1704E 65
0119112506 122S1704E 65
0119112506 122S1704E 65
0119112512 128S1704E 60
0119112512 128S1704E 60
0119112518 133S1700E 55
0119112518 133S1700E 55
0119112600 137S1698E 50
0119112600 137S1698E 50
0119112606 140S1697E 40
0119112612 144S1696E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 169.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 169.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.5S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 169.5E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC RITA IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 261001Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS MINIMAL CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, HOWEVER A 261002Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01P IS
TRANSITING AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25KTS), OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS 01P TRACKS SLOWLY (3-
4KTS) SOUTHWEST IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 24. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WIDELY SPREAD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 260300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 170.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 170.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 170.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 170.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.3S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 170.0E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A SMALL-SIZED CENTRAL OVERCAST FEATURE WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. RAIN BANDS ARE SHORT AND WEAK. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252156Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TC IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR FROM THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. ANALYSES INDICATE A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS WIDELY SPREAD. NAVGEM IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER OFFERING A DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE TRACK EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z, AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 260300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191126014706
2019112600 01P RITA 009 01 195 08 SATL 030
T000 142S 1700E 050 R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 147S 1699E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 151S 1697E 040 R034 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 153S 1694E 035 R034 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 154S 1691E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 170.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 170.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191126014706
2019112600 01P RITA 009 01 195 08 SATL 030
T000 142S 1700E 050 R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 000 NW QD
T012 147S 1699E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 151S 1697E 040 R034 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 153S 1694E 035 R034 010 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 154S 1691E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 170.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 170.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.3S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 170.0E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z, AND 270900Z.//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 100S1683E 40
0119112406 102S1688E 45
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112506 122S1704E 65
0119112506 122S1704E 65
0119112506 122S1704E 65
0119112512 128S1704E 60
0119112512 128S1704E 60
0119112518 134S1702E 55
0119112518 134S1702E 55
0119112600 142S1700E 50
0119112600 142S1700E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 251500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191125140550
2019112512 01P RITA 007 01 160 03 SATL 060
T000 126S 1703E 060 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 133S 1703E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 140S 1701E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 146S 1697E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 148S 1692E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 149S 1679E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 146S 1664E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 251500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.3S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191125140550
2019112512 01P RITA 007 01 160 03 SATL 060
T000 126S 1703E 060 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 133S 1703E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T024 140S 1701E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T036 146S 1697E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 148S 1692E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 149S 1679E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 146S 1664E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.3S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.0S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.6S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.8S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.9S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 170.3E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 100S1683E 40
0119112406 102S1688E 45
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112500 117S1698E 65
0119112506 123S1702E 65
0119112506 123S1702E 65
0119112506 123S1702E 65
0119112512 126S1703E 60
0119112512 126S1703E 60

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 170.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 170.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.3S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.0S 170.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.6S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.8S 169.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.9S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 170.3E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO A
MAJOR SYSTEM OUTAGE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED
PRIMARILY BY A 250949Z ASCAT-C IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS, HEDGED BELOW A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) BASED ON THE WEAKENED
STRUCTURE. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 36, TC 01P SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE
TO STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT EXCEPT NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD DIRECTLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL HIGH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 250300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191125010941
2019112500 01P RITA 005 01 155 07 SATL 015
T000 118S 1697E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 095 SE QD
060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 128S 1699E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD
050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 137S 1699E 060 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 143S 1698E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 149S 1696E 045 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 154S 1691E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 155S 1684E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 250300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 13 NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 242150Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE 65 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH A STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN TC 01P WESTWARD. DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL HALT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12 AND
STEADY WEAKENING WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NAVGEM IS THE
SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING TC 01P GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AS SEVERAL MEMBERS
STALL THE SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS ACCELERATE IT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191125010941
2019112500 01P RITA 005 01 155 07 SATL 015
T000 118S 1697E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 000 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 128S 1699E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 137S 1699E 060 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T036 143S 1698E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 010 NW QD
T048 149S 1696E 045 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 154S 1691E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 155S 1684E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VI
LA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SI
GNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300
Z.//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 100S1683E 40
0119112406 102S1688E 45
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112500 118S1697E 65
0119112500 118S1697E 65
0119112500 118S1697E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 250200
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191125010941
2019112500 01P RITA 005 01 155 07 SATL 015
T000 118S 1697E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 128S 1699E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 137S 1699E 060 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 143S 1698E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 149S 1696E 045 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 154S 1691E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 155S 1684E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 100S1683E 40
0119112406 102S1688E 45
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112418 112S1694E 55
0119112500 118S1697E 65
0119112500 118S1697E 65
0119112500 118S1697E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 13 NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 242150Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE 65 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH A STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN TC 01P WESTWARD. DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL HALT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12 AND
STEADY WEAKENING WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NAVGEM IS THE
SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING TC 01P GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AS SEVERAL MEMBERS
STALL THE SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS ACCELERATE IT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 242100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124192333
2019112418 01P RITA 004 01 160 05 SATL 040
T000 112S 1693E 055 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 123S 1698E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 133S 1699E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 141S 1699E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 147S 1697E 045 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 154S 1694E 035 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 156S 1685E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 169.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124192333
2019112418 01P RITA 004 01 160 05 SATL 040
T000 112S 1693E 055 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 123S 1698E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 133S 1699E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 141S 1699E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 147S 1697E 045 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 154S 1694E 035 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 156S 1685E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 169.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.3S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.7S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.4S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.6S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 169.4E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 100S1683E 40
0119112406 102S1688E 45
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112412 107S1691E 50
0119112418 112S1693E 55
0119112418 112S1693E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 169.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 169.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.3S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.1S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.7S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.4S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.6S 168.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 169.4E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN A SMALL STR TO
THE WEST WILL SHIFT THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW SHOULD
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. BY TAU 72, STRONG VWS WILL BEGIN,
HELPING DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE. IN THE ALTERNATE
SCENARIO (SUPPORTED BY NAVGEM AND SEVERAL GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS), THE STR TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
BEYOND TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z,
251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 241500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124134221
2019112412 01P RITA 003 01 165 04 SATL 040
T000 106S 1691E 055 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 095 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 119S 1698E 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 130S 1700E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 139S 1700E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 146S 1699E 045 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 156S 1695E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 158S 1691E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 169.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 241500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 169.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 169.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 169.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 169.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.0S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.9S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.6S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.8S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 169.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INTIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY A
241043Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE THAT SHOWS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE. A
241045Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS 45 KNOT WIND BARBS TIGHTLY WRAPPED
AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (45
KNOTS) AND A 241140Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TAU 12. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO
THE EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
WILL STEER TC 01P GENERALLY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITH A TRACK SPREAD OF 150 NM BY TAU 72. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID NEAR CONSENSUS. WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VWS
AND DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AFTER TAU 72 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY TAU 96. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124134221
2019112412 01P RITA 003 01 165 04 SATL 040
T000 106S 1691E 055 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 045 NW QD
T012 119S 1698E 065 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T024 130S 1700E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 139S 1700E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T048 146S 1699E 045 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 156S 1695E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 158S 1691E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 169.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 169.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.0S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.9S 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.6S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 169.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.8S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 169.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 102S1682E 35
0119112406 102S1690E 40
0119112412 106S1691E 55
0119112412 106S1691E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124073332
2019112406 01P ONE 002 01 090 08 SATL 050
T000 102S 1690E 040 R034 170 NE QD 125 SE QD 000 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 114S 1698E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 126S 1703E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 137S 1705E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 145S 1705E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 157S 1703E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 165S 1715E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124073332
2019112406 01P ONE 002 01 090 08 SATL 050
T000 102S 1690E 040 R034 170 NE QD 125 SE QD 000 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 114S 1698E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 126S 1703E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 137S 1705E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 145S 1705E 045 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 157S 1703E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 165S 1715E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.4S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.7S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.5S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 169.2E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 102S1682E 35
0119112406 102S1690E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.4S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 169.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.4S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.6S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.5S 170.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.7S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.5S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 10.5S 169.2E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM
NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS
SUPPORTED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY A 240533Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE THAT
SHOWS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) AND A 240540Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF 39 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO
THE EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
WILL STEER TC 01P GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD SWATH OF POSSIBLE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY POSSIBILITIES. MODEL GUIANCE CROSS TRACK SPREAD
INCREASES TO AROUND 300 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LAID ALONG THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS AND DIMINISHED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AFTER TAU 72, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. BASED ON
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124011143
2019112400 01P ONE 001 01 160 05 SATL 045
T000 102S 1682E 035 R034 150 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 108S 1687E 045 R034 160 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 119S 1694E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 133S 1699E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 143S 1703E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD
060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 160S 1711E 050 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 170S 1720E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 177S 1731E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01P SWP 191124011143
2019112400 01P ONE 001 01 160 05 SATL 045
T000 102S 1682E 035 R034 150 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 108S 1687E 045 R034 160 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 119S 1694E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 133S 1699E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 143S 1703E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 160S 1711E 050 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 170S 1720E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 177S 1731E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 168.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.8S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.3S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.3S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.0S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.0S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.7S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 168.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
0119112100 65S1629E 15
0119112106 67S1629E 15
0119112112 69S1630E 15
0119112118 70S1631E 15
0119112200 71S1637E 15
0119112206 71S1643E 20
0119112212 72S1650E 20
0119112218 74S1657E 20
0119112300 77S1663E 25
0119112306 84S1673E 25
0119112312 93S1678E 30
0119112318 97S1680E 30
0119112400 102S1682E 35
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 168.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.8S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 10.2S 168.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 168.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.8S 168.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9S 169.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.3S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.3S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.0S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.0S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.7S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 168.3E.
24NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). SUPPORTED BY A 232209Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IS
FAVORABLE. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL STEER TC 01P
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO DISTINCT
SCENARIOS ON THE TRACK OF TC 01P. NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL STALL AFTER ABOUT
TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF
SOLUTION. WITH THAT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS
AFTER TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. IF TC 01P STALLS AS
DEPICTED BY THE OTHER MODELS, VWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE AND
THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//

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