Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for UESI-20
in New Caledonia, Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-02-13 03:09


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 130300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200213022849
2020021300 15P UESI 017 01 195 19 SATL XTRP 035
T000 277S 1611E 055 R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 305S 1599E 050 R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.5S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2020-02-13 03:09


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.5S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-13 03:03


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.5S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 160.8E.
13FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
430 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 122125Z
BULLSEYE ASCAT-A PASS AND A 122239Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BY A
CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
122240Z ASCAT-B IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF HIGHER (50-59KT)
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
USING THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASSES AND DEPICT AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPANDING WIND FIELD. TC 15P REMAINS IN A REGION OF HIGH (30-35
KT) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LOW (LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 15P HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND HAS BEGUN
TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND BAROCLINIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL LIMIT THE WEAKENING CAUSED BY THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING TC 15P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN
THE NEAR-TERM. AS TC 15P MERGES WITH THE STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND CROSSES INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, TC 15P IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET.//

>

2020-02-13 02:58


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200213022849
2020021300 15P UESI 017 01 195 19 SATL XTRP 035
T000 277S 1611E 055 R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T012 305S 1599E 050 R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.7S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 161.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.5S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 160.8E.
13FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALI
A, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WA
RNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONIT
ORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 28 FEET.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021212 244S1619E 60
1520021212 244S1619E 60
1520021218 259S1617E 55
1520021218 259S1617E 55
1520021300 277S1611E 55
1520021300 277S1611E 55

>

2020-02-12 20:53


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 20:52


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 122100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212203434
2020021218 15P UESI 016 01 185 15 SATL 040
T000 259S 1617E 055 R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 287S 1606E 055 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 315S 1594E 050 R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 340S 1585E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 250 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 20:52


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.5S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.0S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 161.4E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
332 NM SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 121711Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SITUATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE EIR IMAGERY SUPPORTS
PLACING THE INITIAL POSITION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
ELONGATED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KTS BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KTS) AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED,
STRONG (30-35 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINS ASYMMETRICAL WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. TC
15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC
15P WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED OF
THE STR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, CONTINUED HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO THE REGION, LIMITING THE EXTENT OF THE WEAKENING. WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH, TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND
132100Z.//

>

2020-02-12 20:47


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212203434
2020021218 15P UESI 016 01 185 15 SATL 040
T000 259S 1617E 055 R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 287S 1606E 055 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T024 315S 1594E 050 R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T036 340S 1585E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.7S 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 31.5S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 34.0S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 161.4E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW C
ALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAV
E HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021212 244S1619E 60
1520021212 244S1619E 60
1520021218 259S1617E 55
1520021218 259S1617E 55

>

2020-02-12 15:07


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 121500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212143325
2020021212 15P UESI 015 01 195 10 SATL 030
T000 244S 1619E 060 R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 269S 1608E 060 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 296S 1595E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 322S 1584E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 346S 1580E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 15:07


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 121500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.9S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 14:59


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212143325
2020021212 15P UESI 015 01 195 10 SATL 030
T000 244S 1619E 060 R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 205 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 269S 1608E 060 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T024 296S 1595E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T036 322S 1584E 050 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T048 346S 1580E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.9S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.6S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 32.2S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.6S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 161.6E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021112 205S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021118 216S1627E 80
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 75
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021212 244S1619E 60
1520021212 244S1619E 60

>

2020-02-12 14:57


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 161.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.9S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.6S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 32.2S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 34.6S 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 161.6E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 121127Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA,
WHICH INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF GALE FORCE (34 KNOTS) AND
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE IS HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 15P HAS
TRACKED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STEERING RIDGE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL DRIVE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IN THE NEAR-TERM. HOWEVER, STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF WEAKENING. OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//

>

2020-02-12 08:58


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 120900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212074609
2020021206 15P UESI 014 01 200 08 SATL 025
T000 234S 1622E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD
115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 255S 1613E 065 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 281S 1601E 060 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 307S 1588E 055 R050 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 250 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 331S 1581E 050 R050 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 08:58


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 120900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 08:50


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212074609
2020021206 15P UESI 014 01 200 08 SATL 025
T000 234S 1622E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 255S 1613E 065 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 281S 1601E 060 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 307S 1588E 055 R050 020 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 250 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 331S 1581E 050 R050 025 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.1S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.7S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 33.1S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 162.0E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 70
1520021200 226S1625E 70
1520021200 226S1625E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
1520021206 234S1622E 70
NNNN

>

2020-02-12 08:49


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 162.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 162.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.5S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 28.1S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.7S 158.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 33.1S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 162.0E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL EYE EVIDENT IN 120534Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15P IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EXPOSED THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER AND CONFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 15P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL DRIVE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE
NEAR-TERM PLUS EVENTUAL BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
WEAKENING. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND
MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND UNDERGO A QUICK TRANSITION
INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT.
THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//

>

2020-02-12 02:23


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 120300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212004849
2020021200 15P UESI 013 01 190 10 SATL 025
T000 226S 1625E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 245S 1618E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD
130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 268S 1607E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 293S 1592E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 318S 1581E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 364S 1583E 045 R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 22.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 02:20


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200212004849
2020021200 15P UESI 013 01 190 10 SATL 025
T000 226S 1625E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 245S 1618E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 268S 1607E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 293S 1592E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 318S 1581E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 364S 1583E 045 R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 22.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.5S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.8S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.8S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 36.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 162.3E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021200 226S1625E 70
1520021200 226S1625E 70
1520021200 226S1625E 70
NNNN

>

2020-02-12 02:20


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 120300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 22.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.5S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-12 02:18


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 22.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.5S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 26.8S 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 29.3S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 31.8S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 36.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 162.3E.
12FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AS EVIDENCED BY
WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND FRAYING ALONG
THE POLEWARD PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 112259Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE ASCAT DATA.
THE TC WILL NOW TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST BUILDS. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND
WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE (20KTS+). THIS, PLUS THE APPROACH OF
COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH, WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY,
NEAR TAU 48, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C).
THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72,
CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//

>

2020-02-11 20:05


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 112100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211190424
2020021118 15P UESI 012 01 180 11 SATL 020
T000 216S 1627E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD
095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 232S 1623E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 252S 1614E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 276S 1601E 060 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 302S 1586E 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 348S 1578E 045 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-11 20:05


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 112100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.2S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-11 20:01


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211190424
2020021118 15P UESI 012 01 180 11 SATL 020
T000 216S 1627E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 232S 1623E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 252S 1614E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 276S 1601E 060 R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T048 302S 1586E 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T072 348S 1578E 045 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.2S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.2S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.6S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.8S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75
1520021118 216S1627E 75

>

2020-02-11 20:01


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.2S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.2S 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.6S 160.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 30.2S 158.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 34.8S 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT
OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. POLEWARD ELONGATION DUE TO SHEAR
IS BECOMING APPARENT; HOWEVER, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO
ENHANCED THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 111806Z GPM
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE TC WILL NOW TRACK MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST BUILDS. AROUND TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE (20KTS+).
THIS, PLUS THE APPROACH OF COOL DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
CONCURRENTLY, NEAR TAU 48, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF
AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST
VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 72, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODELS ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//

>

2020-02-11 14:11


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 111500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211130640
2020021112 15P UESI 011 01 175 09 SATL 020
T000 205S 1627E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 150 SE QD
170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 218S 1625E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 234S 1621E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD
140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 255S 1611E 060 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 282S 1594E 055 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 328S 1568E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 230 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 378S 1584E 045 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2020-02-11 14:11


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 111500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.8S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-11 14:08


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211130640
2020021112 15P UESI 011 01 175 09 SATL 020
T000 205S 1627E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 218S 1625E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 234S 1621E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 255S 1611E 060 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 282S 1594E 055 R050 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T072 328S 1568E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 230 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T096 378S 1584E 045 R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.8S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.4S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.8S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 37.8S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.7E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA,
NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICAN
T WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021112 205S1627E 70
1520021112 205S1627E 70
1520021112 205S1627E 70

>

2020-02-11 14:08


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.5S 162.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 162.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.8S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.4S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5S 161.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 28.2S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 32.8S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 37.8S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 162.7E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A BULLSEYE 111034Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE 34/50 KT WIND
RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF T4.0-4.5 (65-77 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS, AND
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 15P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ALSO STARTING TO
INFLUENCE THE TRACK. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THAT TROUGH WILL CAUSE A
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. AS TC 15P TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER HIGH VWS AND COOL SST, CAUSING THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN
STEADILY. AROUND TAU 48, SST BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND THE BAROCLINICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 72. SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 72, INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL CAUSE
THE TRACK TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM AUSTRALIA. MOST OF THE
VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ATTRIBUTED TO ALONG-TRACK (SPEED)
DIFFERENCES. THE PRIMARY OUTLIER IS THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH IS
QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BASED ON STRONG CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT AND GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//

>

2020-02-11 08:09


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 110900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211073348
2020021106 15P UESI 010 01 170 07 SATL 015
T000 196S 1626E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD
075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 209S 1625E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD
110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 223S 1623E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 242S 1617E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 265S 1603E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 312S 1571E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 361S 1571E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2020-02-11 08:09


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-11 08:04


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211073348
2020021106 15P UESI 010 01 170 07 SATL 015
T000 196S 1626E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 209S 1625E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 223S 1623E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 242S 1617E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 265S 1603E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 312S 1571E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T096 361S 1571E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.5S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.2S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.1S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW C
ALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT W
ARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021018 181S1625E 70
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021100 189S1625E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75
1520021106 196S1626E 75

>

2020-02-11 08:04


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 22.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.5S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 31.2S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 36.1S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247
NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. AN EYE FEATURE IN AN 110459Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 75 KT
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AROUND
TAU 12, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING
THE SYSTEM. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK SHIFT
AND INCREASED VWS THAT WILL START TO WEAKEN THE INTENSITY. JUST PRIOR
TO TAU 72, COOL (BELOW 26C) SST AND INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 96, 15P
SHOULD BECOME FULLY SUBTROPICAL AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
NAVGEM BECOMES A SLIGHT WESTERN OUTLIER. DUE TO SUCH STRONG AGREEMENT
IN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//

>

2020-02-11 02:43


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 110300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211005108
2020021100 15P UESI 009 01 170 07 SATL 010
T000 188S 1626E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 199S 1626E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD
190 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 210S 1624E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 221S 1621E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 236S 1613E 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 274S 1583E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 260 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 312S 1566E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 351S 1571E 045 R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2020-02-11 02:43


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.9S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-11 02:24


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200211005108
2020021100 15P UESI 009 01 170 07 SATL 010
T000 188S 1626E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 199S 1626E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 210S 1624E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 221S 1621E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 236S 1613E 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 274S 1583E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 260 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T096 312S 1566E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T120 351S 1571E 045 R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.9S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.1S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.6S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.2S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 35.1S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279
NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 65
1520021100 188S1626E 75
1520021100 188S1626E 75
1520021100 188S1626E 75

>

2020-02-11 02:19


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 162.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.9S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.0S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 22.1S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.6S 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 27.4S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 31.2S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 35.1S 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 162.6E.
11FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT FORMED A 10-NM RAGGED
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EYE FEATURE, SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FOR TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A
102204Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
STATE. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
BUILDS. AROUND TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
WITH LOW 10-15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM 28C SST THAT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 80 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24. AFTERWARD, VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 72, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB
LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND
COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96, CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS FAIR WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING TO 200NM AT TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z,
112100Z AND 120300Z.//

>

2020-02-10 20:05


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210185748
2020021018 15P UESI 008 01 180 05 SATL 025
T000 181S 1625E 065 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 145 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 191S 1626E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 202S 1626E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 213S 1624E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 225S 1618E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 254S 1595E 055 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 289S 1565E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 331S 1558E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
220 NE QD 210 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 162.5E

>

2020-02-10 20:05


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.1S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-10 19:54


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210185748
2020021018 15P UESI 008 01 180 05 SATL 025
T000 181S 1625E 065 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 191S 1626E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 202S 1626E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 213S 1624E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 225S 1618E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 254S 1595E 055 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 289S 1565E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 331S 1558E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.1S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.2S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.3S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.5S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.9S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.1S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314
NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 65
1520021018 181S1625E 65
NNNN

>

2020-02-10 19:54


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.1S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.2S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.3S 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.5S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.4S 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.9S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.1S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL MAINTAINED A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
PROFILE WITH A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 1627Z SSMI COLORIZED 37GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED EIR
SIGNATURE. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
BUILDS. AROUND TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL DIG INTO AND WEAKEN THE STR RESULTING IN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH LOW 10-15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM 28C SST THAT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 75 KNOTS AROUND TAU 24. AFTERWARD, VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 72, TC UESI WILL UNDERGO
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB
LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND
COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C). THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS FAIR WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING TO 310NM AT TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-10 15:06


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210131316
2020021012 15P UESI 007 01 205 04 SATL 030
T000 176S 1625E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD
135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 185S 1625E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 195S 1626E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 205S 1626E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 215S 1623E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 242S 1604E 055 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 275S 1572E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 220 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2020-02-10 15:06


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.5S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-10 14:44


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210131316
2020021012 15P UESI 007 01 205 04 SATL 030
T000 176S 1625E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 185S 1625E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 195S 1626E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 205S 1626E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 215S 1623E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 242S 1604E 055 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T096 275S 1572E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 220 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.5S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.5S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.5S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.2S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.5S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332
NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021006 172S1627E 60
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65
1520021012 176S1625E 65

>

2020-02-10 14:37


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.5S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.5S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.5S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.2S 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.5S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332
NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
101029Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 101030Z
ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THIS
ASCAT IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED
ON PGTW/KNES/NFFN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY,
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 100736Z SMAP IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM
1-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 62.4 KNOTS. TC UESI WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 72, TC UESI WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS.
OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW (15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
SST VALUES (28C). THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 15P TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM
25 TO 40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 500MB LOW EAST OF AUSTRALIA AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AND COOLING SST VALUES (24-26C).
THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS FAIR WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASING TO 277NM AT TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z,
110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//

>

2020-02-10 09:19


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210082645
2020021006 15P UESI 006 01 230 06 SATL 030
T000 174S 1625E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 183S 1623E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 194S 1625E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 206S 1626E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 215S 1626E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 235S 1615E 060 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 264S 1589E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2020-02-10 09:19


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-10 09:09


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210082645
2020021006 15P UESI 006 01 230 06 SATL 030
T000 174S 1625E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 183S 1623E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 194S 1625E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 206S 1626E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 215S 1626E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 235S 1615E 060 R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T096 264S 1589E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.6S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.5S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.5S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332
NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021006 174S1625E 60
1520021006 174S1625E 60

>

2020-02-10 09:09


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 162.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 162.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.3S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4S 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.6S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.5S 162.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.5S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 162.5E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332
NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) COVERED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 100552Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
LLCC WITH FURTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KTS IS PLACED BETWEEN MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.0
(65 KTS, KNES) ALSO WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC UESI IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE STR THROUGH TAU 48 AT WHICH
TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72 TC UESI WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET, AND
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 (100 NM SPREAD) BUT IN POOR
AGREEMENT THEREAFTER (400 NM SPREAD AT TAU 96), LENDING ONLY FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z,
102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//

>

2020-02-10 03:06


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 100300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210024020
2020021000 15P UESI 005 01 225 08 SATL XTRP 025
T000 170S 1630E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 178S 1629E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 187S 1628E 065 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 197S 1629E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD
170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 208S 1629E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 226S 1628E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 248S 1615E 060 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 272S 1597E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION

>

2020-02-10 03:06


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-10 03:04


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.6S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.8S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.2S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 163.0E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
306 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SEMICIRCLES. A BULLSEYE 092251Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALS A LARGE
SWATH OF 40-44 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THE MSI AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT, THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.5 (55 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, ABRF, AND NFFN. ADDITIONALLY, A
092157Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 55 KTS AND AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.4 (53 KTS) PLACE GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE
SYSTEM TRANSITS FIRST SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 60.
AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS AND TC 15P BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW,
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL DECREASE AS VWS INCREASES (25-30 KT),
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE, DEPICT A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER THAT, ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THEREFORE, THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z,
101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-10 02:58


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200210024020
2020021000 15P UESI 005 01 225 08 SATL XTRP 025
T000 170S 1630E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 045 NW QD
T012 178S 1629E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T024 187S 1628E 065 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T036 197S 1629E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 208S 1629E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 226S 1628E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 248S 1615E 060 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T120 272S 1597E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 163.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 163.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.7S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.8S 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.6S 162.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.8S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.2S 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 163.0E.
10FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HE
IGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55
1520021000 170S1630E 55

>

2020-02-09 21:22


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 092100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209203927
2020020918 15P UESI 004 01 190 06 SATL 030
T000 164S 1636E 055 R050 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 172S 1636E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD
140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 180S 1636E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 189S 1638E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 200 SE QD
160 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 199S 1642E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 219S 1644E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 238S 1635E 060 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 261S 1617E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 220 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

>

2020-02-09 21:22


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.2S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-09 21:08


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.2S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.9S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.9S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.9S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.8S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.1S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 163.6E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
281 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING UNDER DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 091926Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THESE IMAGES LEND HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. SET AT 55 KTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 091840Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES AND NFFN). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY FIXES DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 15P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
ALLOW TC 15P TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80
KTS BY TAU 36. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER NEW CALEDONIA. AFTER TAU 60, TC 15P WILL EXPERIENCE
DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING (25-30 KT) VWS AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED, ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED AND THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE IN POOR OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 314
NM AT TAU 72. THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACES LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z,
100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//

>

2020-02-09 21:01


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209203927
2020020918 15P UESI 004 01 190 06 SATL 030
T000 164S 1636E 055 R050 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T012 172S 1636E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 180S 1636E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 189S 1638E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 199S 1642E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 219S 1644E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 238S 1635E 060 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T120 261S 1617E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.2S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.9S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.9S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.9S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 23.8S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.1S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 163.6E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VIL
A, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT W
AVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 45
1520020918 164S1636E 55
1520020918 164S1636E 55

>

2020-02-09 15:06


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 091500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209135616
2020020912 15P UESI 003 01 155 04 SATL 050
T000 158S 1637E 040 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 164S 1638E 045 R034 080 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 172S 1640E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 181S 1643E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 191S 1647E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 213S 1654E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 233S 1650E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 254S 1636E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2020-02-09 14:45


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209135616
2020020912 15P UESI 003 01 155 04 SATL 050
T000 158S 1637E 040 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 164S 1638E 045 R034 080 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 172S 1640E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 181S 1643E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 191S 1647E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 213S 1654E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 233S 1650E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 254S 1636E 050 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.1S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 163.7E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EXPANDING CORE CONVECTION. A 091050Z MHS
COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 090936Z ASCAT-A AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS THE MHS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW AND NFFN) TO T3.0 (45 KTS, KNES). TC 15P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 15P
TO FURTHER DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, REACHING
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NEW CALEDONIA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL HINDER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, BRING HIGHER (25-35 KNOTS)
VWS AND PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON A
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THEY ARE IN POOR OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH A SPREAD OF 270 NM AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO 687 NM AT TAU 120.
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1635E 30
1520020900 150S1634E 35
1520020906 154S1635E 40
1520020912 158S1637E 40
NNNN

>

2020-02-09 14:44


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-09 14:41


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (UESI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 163.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 163.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.2S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.1S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.1S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3S 165.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.3S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 163.7E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (UESI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EXPANDING CORE CONVECTION. A
091050Z MHS COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 090936Z ASCAT-A AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS AS
WELL AS THE MHS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW AND NFFN) TO T3.0 (45 KTS, KNES). TC 15P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 15P
TO FURTHER DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, REACHING
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NEW CALEDONIA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HINDER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, BRING HIGHER (25-35
KNOTS) VWS AND PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODELS
AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THEY ARE IN POOR
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 270 NM AT TAU 72, INCREASING TO
687 NM AT TAU 120. THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z,
100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//

>

2020-02-09 09:05


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 090900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209084012
2020020906 15P FIFTEEN 002 01 225 04 SATL 030
T000 154S 1633E 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 160S 1634E 045 R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 167S 1636E 050 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 176S 1637E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 185S 1641E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 208S 1651E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 228S 1651E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 249S 1636E 050 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-09 09:05


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.7S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-09 09:04


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209084012
2020020906 15P FIFTEEN 002 01 225 04 SATL 030
T000 154S 1633E 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 160S 1634E 045 R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 167S 1636E 050 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 176S 1637E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T048 185S 1641E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 208S 1651E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 228S 1651E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T120 249S 1636E 050 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.7S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.5S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.8S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.8S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 163.3E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
319 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1636E 30
1520020900 151S1636E 35
1520020906 154S1633E 40

>

2020-02-09 09:02


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.0S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.7S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.6S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.5S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.8S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.8S 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.9S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 163.3E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
319 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING
POSITIONED NORTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON MSI AND A 090605Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE THAT FURTHER DEPICTS
RAGGED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ILL DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED
BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW AND
NFFN) AND T3.0 (45 KTS, KNES). TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
MARGINAL (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 15P TO FURTHER
DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL HINDER UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, BRING HIGHER (20-25 KNOTS)
VWS AND PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON A
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THEY ARE IN POOR OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH AN INITIAL SPREAD OF 113 NM AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO
484 NM AT TAU 120. THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z,
092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//

>

2020-02-09 03:54


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 090300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209023942
2020020900 15P FIFTEEN 001 01 180 04 SATL 030
T000 151S 1636E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 154S 1637E 040 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 161S 1641E 050 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 169S 1643E 055 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 180S 1647E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 201S 1661E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 224S 1666E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD
130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 241S 1662E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-09 03:43


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 200209023942
2020020900 15P FIFTEEN 001 01 180 04 SATL 030
T000 151S 1636E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 154S 1637E 040 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 161S 1641E 050 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 169S 1643E 055 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T048 180S 1647E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T072 201S 1661E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 224S 1666E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 241S 1662E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.0S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.4S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.1S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 163.6E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT
VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICAN
T WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
1520020712 130S1626E 20
1520020718 132S1631E 25
1520020800 135S1634E 25
1520020806 139S1636E 25
1520020812 143S1636E 30
1520020818 147S1636E 30
1520020900 151S1636E 35

>

2020-02-09 03:24


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 090300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-02-09 03:20


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 163.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 163.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.4S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.9S 164.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.0S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.1S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.4S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.1S 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 163.6E.
09FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
312 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION
WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND PAST ASCAT DATA REVEALED STRONGER (30-34 KT)
WINDS WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM IN MSI. SET AT 35 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-
2.5 BY PGTW/KNES/PHFO/NFFN/ABRF AND AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THESE CONDITIONS CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT
TRANSITS POLEWARD. BY TAU 96, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND DEPICTS A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72. HOWEVER, TWO NOTABLE OUTLIERS, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SHOW
TC 15P TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 080300).//
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