Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IRONDRO-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-04-06 00:17


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060014
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IRONDRO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 88.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/06 AT 12 UTC:
27.7 S / 91.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/04/07 AT 00 UTC:
30.1 S / 95.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION ON SYSTEM 11
EX-IRONDRO=

>

2020-04-05 23:29


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 052100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 008A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 008A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 24.8S 88.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 88.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.3S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.5S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.8S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 89.2E.
05APR20.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1405 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED DEGRADATION AS EVIDENCED BY
COLLAPSING CONVECTION, ELONGATION, AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED,
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 051633Z AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW. TC 24S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SST (BELOW 25C) WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 30KTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, TC IRONDRO WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: INCLUDED 34-KT WIND RADIUS FOR TAU
24.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-05 18:50


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051832 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 87.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 330 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO:
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2020-04-05 18:50


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051832 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 87.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 330 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW:
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,

>

2020-04-05 18:46


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.5 S / 87.7 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 330 SO: 240 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO:
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SEMBLE EN BAISSE ET SE
CONCENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. PLUSIEURS PASSES ASCAT PARTIELLES
ONT PERMIS DE METTRE A JOUR LES EXTENSIONS. ELLES ONT MONTRE QU'IL
N'Y AVAIT PLUS DE VENT FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET
PLUS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. EN L'ABSENCE
D'ESTIMATION FIABLE, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 50KT MAIS ELLE
POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU SURESTIMEE.

IRONDRO POURSUIT SA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT
SE RENFORCANT ASSOCIE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, A EU RAISON DU COEUR
CHAUD DU SYSTEME. L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT
PARTICIPE EGALEMENT A CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DEMAIN, SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ENTAMER SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE, QU'IL POURRAIT ACHEVER DES
MARDI.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE. IL DEVRAIT DONC ENTRER DEMAIN MATIN EN ZONE
DE RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE.=

>

2020-04-05 18:46


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 87.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 330 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW:
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRONDRO'S CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS WEAKER AND IS LOCATED MOSTLY IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. SEVERAL PARTIAL ASCAT SWATHS HELP IN UPDATING
THE WIND RADII. THEY ALSO SHOW THAT THERE IS NO MORE STORM FORCE
WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THAT THERE IS NO MORE GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. LACKING RELIABLE ESTIMATES
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50KT, BUT THIS COULD BE SURESTIMATED.

IRONDRO KEEPS ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR,
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE INNER CORE,
DILUTED THE SYSTEM'S WARM CORE. THE ABSENCE OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL ALSO
INCREASES THIS WEAKENING TREND. FROM TOMORROW, UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COULD COMPLETE IT AS SOON
AS TUESDAY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A
DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE RESULTING STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW THUS DRIVES A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT. NUMERICAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD. IT SHOULD ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY TOMORROW MORNING.=

>

2020-04-05 12:08


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051203 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 86.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/04/2020 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 100.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0.CI=4.0+

>

2020-04-05 12:08


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051203 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 86.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/07 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 100.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0.CI=4.0+

>

2020-04-05 12:05


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051203
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 86.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/04/2020 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 100.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0;CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE. LA PARTIE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES-COUCHES RESTE BIEN VISIBLE GRACE AU FORT CISAILLEMENT DE VENT
DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 0716Z ET AMSR2
DE 0746Z TEMOIGNENT DE L'ELONGATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE SOUS
L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT.

IRONDRO POURSUIT UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT
SE RENFORCANT ASSOCIE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, A EU RAISON DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME. L'ABSENCE D'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE PARTICIPE EGALEMENT A CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DEMAIN, SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU PROFOND
THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE, QU'IL POURRAIT ACHEVER DES MARDI.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-05 12:05


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051203
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 86.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/07 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 100.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0;CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRDONDRO'S CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL VISIBLE
ON SAT IMAGERY, DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. 0716Z GPM
AND 0746Z AMSR2 MW SWATH HIGHLIGHT THE ELONGATION AFFECTING THE INNER
CORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR.

IRONDRO KEEPS ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR,
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE INNER CORE,
DILUTED THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE. THE ABSENCE OF OCEANIC ENERGY ALSO
INCREASES THIS WEAKENING TREND. FROM TOMORROW, UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COULD COMPLETE IT AS SOON
AS TUESDAY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A
DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE RESULTING STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW THUS DRIVES A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT. NUMERICAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-05 12:03


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051202
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/04/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/04/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 86.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/06 AT 00 UTC:
26.6 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/06 AT 12 UTC:
28.2 S / 91.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-05 06:12


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050608 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 84.4 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE
EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 96.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 07/04/2020 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+.CI=4.0+

>

2020-04-05 06:12


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050608 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 84.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 96.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/07 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+.CI=4.0+

>

2020-04-05 06:10


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050604
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/04/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/04/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 84.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

LOCALLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT WITHIN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 18 UTC:
25.3 S / 86.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/06 AT 06 UTC:
26.6 S / 88.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-05 06:08


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050608
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 84.4 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE
EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 96.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 07/04/2020 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION D'IRONDRO
EST APPARU EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION, A PEINE VOILE PAR
LES CIRRUS SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES VISIBLES. LES PASSES ASCAT-B DE
0410Z ET ASCAT-C DE 0330Z COUVRENT LE CENTRE DE LA CIRCULATION ET ONT
PERMIS UNE REEVALUATION PRECISE DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT. AU VU DE CES
DONNEES AINSI QUE DE L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS, IRONDRO EST
RETROGRADE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. IL EST NEANMOINS
POSSIBLE QUE DES VENTS DE FORCE OURAGAN RESTENT PRESENTS LOCALEMENT
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST (DEMI-CERCLE DANGEREUX).

IRONDRO POURSUIT UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT
SE RENFORCANT ASSOCIE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, A EU RAISON DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME. L'ABSENCE D'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE PARTICIPE EGALEMENT A CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DEMAIN ,SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU PROFOND
THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE, QU'IL POURRAIT ACHEVER DES MARDI.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLEES=

>

2020-04-05 06:08


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050608
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 84.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 31.8 S / 96.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/07 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRONDRO'S CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARED ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON THE
VIS SAT IMAGES. THE 0330Z ASCAT-C AND 0410Z ASCAT-B SWATHS COVER THE
ENTIRE CIRCULATION AND ALLOW FOR A PRECISE ESTIMATION OF THE
EXTENSIONS OF WIND. GIVEN THIS DATA AND THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATE,
IRONDRO IS DOWNGRADED TO THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER,
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FOUND LOCALLY WITHIN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT (UNSAFE SEMI-CIRCLE).

IRONDRO KEEPS ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE INNER CORE,
DESTROYED THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE. THE ABSENCE OF OCEANIC ENERGY ALSO
INCREASES THIS WEAKENING TREND. FROM TOMORROW, UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND COULD COMPLETE IT AS SOON
AS TUESDAY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASR, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BOTH
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST AND A
DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE RESULTING STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW THUS DRIVES A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT. NUMERICAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-05 00:28


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050018 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 82.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 93.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

>

2020-04-05 00:28


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050018 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 82.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 93.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

>

2020-04-05 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050018
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 82.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 969 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 460 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 280 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 93.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'IRONDRO
S'EST NETTEMMENT DEGRADE SOUS LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST GRANDISSANT (30-35KT SUR LES DONNA ES DE CIMMS). MALGRE SA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ELEVA , LE COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE N'A PAS
RESISTE COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 1937Z, SSMIS
2226Z.


IRONDRO POURSUIT UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT
SE RENFORCANT ASSOCIE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, A EU RAISON DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME. LA BAISSE DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT, DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT RENFORCER CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
HEURES. DEMAIN SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU PROFOND THALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.MALGRE=

>

2020-04-05 00:25


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 82.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 460 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 280 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 93.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRONDRO CLOUD PATTERN STARTED TO DETERIORATE
UNDER THE GRADUAL INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30-35KT ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA). HOWEVER GIVEN ITS QUICK MOVEMENT,
THE UPPER WARM CORE HAS NOT ANYMORE RESISTED AS SHOW BY MICROWAVE
IMAGES 1937Z GMI, 2226Z SSMIS.

IRONDRO IS GOING ON A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THE STRENGTHENING SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE INNER CORE,
TOOK OUT THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THE DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS DOWNWARD TREND.
TOMORROW UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST ON ONE HAND
AND THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, ON THE OTHER. IT IS THEREFORE
DRIVE BY A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW ON A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-05 00:18


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050014 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 82.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 140 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/06 AT 00 UTC:
26.0 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

>

2020-04-05 00:15


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050014
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 969 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 82.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 140 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/06 AT 00 UTC:
26.0 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-04 18:03


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041758 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 80.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 96.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

>

2020-04-04 18:03


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041758 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 80.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 96.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

>

2020-04-04 18:03


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041758 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 80.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

2020-04-04 18:00


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041758
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 80.9 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 96.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'IRONDRO
S'EST NETTEMMENT DEGRADE SOUS LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST GRANDISSANT (30-35KT SUR LES DONNA ES DE CIMMS). NEANMOINS
ETANT DONNE SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, LE COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE
RESISTE COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 0811Z, AMSR2 DE
0842Z ET SSMIS 1111Z AVEC UN OEIL OUVERT COTE NORD EN 89Z. LA PASSE
SMAP DE 12H54Z MONTRE D'AILLEURS ENCORE UN MAX DE VENT DE 103KT.
NEANMOINS LA STRUCTURE INTERNE COMMENCE A SE DETERIORER EGALEMENT EN
BASSES COUCHES. EN 37GHZ LE MUR DE L'OEIL APPARAIT MOINS DEFINI
NOTAMMENT SUR LA SSMIS DE 1111Z, EN CONSEQUENCE, L'INTENSITE EST
ENCORE ESTIME A 80KT.

IRONDRO A DEMARRE SA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT
SE RENFORCANT ASSOCIE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE
DESTRUCTURER LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. LA BAISSE DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE
SOUS-JACENT, DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RENFORCER CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES HEURES. DEMAIN SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU
PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-04 18:00


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041758
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 80.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 96.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRONDRO CLOUD PATTERN STARTED TO DETERIORATE
UNDER THE GRADUAL INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30-35KT ACCORDING TO CIMMS DATA). HOWEVER GIVEN ITS QUICK MOVEMENT,
THE UPPER WARM CORE IS RESISTING AS SHOW BY MICROWAVE IMAGES 0811Z
GMI, 0842Z AMSR2 AND 1111Z SSMIS WITH THE EYE OPEN ON ITS NORTHERN
SIDE IN 89GHZ.
THE SMAP PASS OF 12H54Z STILL SHOWS A MAXIMUM WIND OF 103KT.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER INNER CORE IS ALSO STARTING TO DETERIORATE AS
SHOWN BY 1111Z SSMIS. THEREFORE, INTENSITY IS ALWAYS ESTIMATED TO
80KT.

IRONDRO HAS JUST STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THE STRENGTHENING
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE INNER
CORE, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DETERIORATING THE INNER CORE. THE
DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
THIS DOWNWARD TREND. TOMORROW UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST ON ONE HAND
AND THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, ON THE OTHER. IT IS THEREFORE
DRIVE BY A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW ON A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-04 18:00


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041758
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 80.9 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 83.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 85.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-04 12:55


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041228 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 79.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

>

2020-04-04 12:55


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041228 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 79.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

>

2020-04-04 12:52


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041228
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.5 S / 79.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 953 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'IRONDRO
S'EST NETTEMMENT DEGRADE SOUS LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST GRANDISSANT. NEANMOINS ETANT DONNE SA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT, LE COEUR CHAUD D'ALTITUDE RESISTE COMME LE MONTRE LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 0811Z, AMSR2 DE 0842Z ET SSMIS 1111Z AVEC
UN OEIL OUVERT COTE NORD EN 89Z. NEANMOINS LA STRUCTURE INTERNE
COMMENCE A SE DETERIORER EGALEMENT EN BASSES COUCHES. EN 37GHZ LE MUR
DE L'OEIL APPARAIT MOINS DEFINI NOTAMMENT SUR LA SSMIS DE 1111Z. EN
CONSEQUENCE, L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSE A 85KT.

IRONDRO A DEMARRE SA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT
SE RENFORCANT ASSOCIE AUX INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC, DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE
DESTRUCTURER LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. LA BAISSE DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE
SOUS-JACENT, DEVRAIT EGALEMENT RENFORCER CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES HEURES. DEMAIN SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU
PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-04 12:52


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041228
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 79.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 84.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRONDRO CLOUD PATTERN STARTED TO DETERIORATE
UNDER THE GRADUAL INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER GIVEN ITS QUICK MOVEMENT, THE UPPER WARM CORE IS RESISTING AS
SHOW BY MICROWAVE IMAGES 0811Z GMI, 0842Z AMSR2 AND 1111Z SSMIS WITH
THE EYE OPEN ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE IN 89GHZ. HOWEVER, THE LOWER INNER
CORE IS ALSO STARTING TO DETERIORATE AS SHOWN BY 1111Z SSMIS.
THEREFORE, INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85KT.

IRONDRO HAS JUST STARTED ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THE STRENGTHENING
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION INSIDE THE INNER
CORE, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DETERIORATING THE INNER CORE. THE
DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
THIS DOWNWARD TREND. TOMORROW UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST ON ONE HAND
AND THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, ON THE OTHER. IT IS THEREFORE
DRIVE BY A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW ON A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-04 12:23


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041219 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 79.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 00 UTC:
23.6 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

2020-04-04 12:21


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 041219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 953 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5 S / 79.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 00 UTC:
23.6 S / 82.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-04 09:24


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 200404091405
2020040406 24S IRONDRO 005 01 115 16 SATL 020
T000 215S 0783E 095 R064 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 228S 0809E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 238S 0830E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 248S 0853E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 260S 0875E 045 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 306S 0952E 035 R034 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.8S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.8S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.0S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 30.6S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 78.9E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
927 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.
//
2420033118 130S 692E 20
2420040100 129S 693E 20
2420040106 128S 694E 20
2420040112 127S 695E 25
2420040118 126S 693E 30
2420040200 128S 692E 30
2420040206 131S 696E 35
2420040212 139S 709E 40
2420040218 151S 716E 45
2420040300 161S 725E 50
2420040300 161S 725E 50
2420040306 175S 733E 55
2420040306 175S 733E 55
2420040312 186S 742E 65
2420040312 186S 742E 65
2420040312 186S 742E 65
2420040318 196S 755E 75
2420040318 196S 755E 75
2420040318 196S 755E 75
2420040400 208S 768E 90
2420040400 208S 768E 90
2420040400 208S 768E 90
2420040406 215S 783E 95
2420040406 215S 783E 95
2420040406 215S 783E 95
NNNN

>

2020-04-04 09:23


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.3S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.0S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.6S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 76.4E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
768 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A
PINHOLE EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. A 031717Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHT
SPIRAL BANDING, AND A WELL DEFINED AND MUCH BROADER MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T4.5 (77
KNOTS) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
(PGTW/KNES/FIMP/FMEE) IN LIGHT OF A T4.6 (80 KNOTS) ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE, AS WELL AS THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN
A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM,
AND WARM (28-29 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER),
CENTERED NEAR 2N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH TAU 12, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS, AS THE POINT SOURCE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND TAPS INTO THE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12 HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
BY TAU 48, TC 24S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BY
TAU 72 WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS (25 DEG CELSIUS OR LOWER), BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SINGLE
OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD
LOOP AFTER TAU 48. DISCOUNTING THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-04 07:41


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040642 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 78.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

>

2020-04-04 07:41


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040642 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 78.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

>

2020-04-04 07:37


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 78.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, IRONDRO A VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ATTEINT
SON PIC D'INTENSITE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE FIN DE NUIT (AMSR2
2032Z PUIS SSMIS 2238Z ET AMSU 0052Z) MONTRENT L'AMELIORATION
SENSIBLE DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE. EN TERME D'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DVORAK ONT OSCILLE ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.5
CONDUISANT A UNE ANALYSE FINALE DE 6.0 EN ACCORD AVEC L'ADT. PARMI
LES MESURES, ON PEUT NOTER UNE PASSE SMAP A 0048Z DONNANT 84KT MAIS
AUSSI PRES DE 65KT SUR LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0427Z MALGRE LE PHENOMENE DE
SATURATION LIE A CETTE MESURE. LE MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE EST POUR
L'INSTANT ESTIMEE AUTOUR DE 95KT. CEPENDANT DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES,
LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST A COMMENCE A
AFFECTER LA STRUCTURE D'IRONDRO. L'IMAGE AMSU DE 0427Z MONTRE UNE
FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST MUR DE L'OEIL. LES DERNIERES
IMAGES SATELLITES SEMBLENT EGALEMENT MONTRER QUE L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF
SE REDUIT PARTICULIEREMENT DANS CE QUADRANT.

IRONDRO SEMBLE DONC AVOIR FINI DE BENEFICIER DE L'EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE POUR SE RENFORCER. LE CISAILLEMENT SE
RENFORCANT DEVRAIT A TRE SUFFISAMMENT FORT POUR GENERER DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, ET DESTRUCTURER TOTALEMENT
LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. CE PHENOMENE ASSOCIE A UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU
OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT, DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. DEMAIN SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE
DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, IRONDRO EST SOUS LA DOUBLE INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
D'UNE PART DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST D'AUTRE PART. IL EST DONC
CAPTURE DANS UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST DURANT LES PROCHAINS JOURS. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA
DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-04 07:37


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 78.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 200
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 30.7 S / 95.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IRONDRO PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.
LATE NIGHT MICROWAVE DATA (2032Z AMSR2, 2238Z SSMIS AND 0052Z AMSU)
SHOW A STRONG IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER STRUCTURE. IN CLASSICAL
IMAGERY, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.5 LEADING
TO A FINAL 6.0 IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT. AMONG THE MEASUREMENTS, THE
0048Z SMAP SWATH GAVE 84KT, AND THE 0427Z ASCAT SHOWED WINDS NEAR
65KT DESPITE THE LIMITATIONS OF THIS MEASURE. MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 95KT. HOWEVER FOR A FEW HOURS, THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STARTED TO IMPACT IRONDRO
STRUCTURE. 0427Z AMSU DATA SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
EYEWALL. LAST SATELLITES IMAGES SEEMS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
REDUCTION OF THE CONVECTIVE RING IN THIS QUADRANT.

THEREFORE IRONDRO PROBABLY ENDED ITS DEEPENING PHASE THANKS TO THE
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE POLEWARD. THE SHEAR WHILE STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION
INSIDE THE INNER CORE, AND THUS DESTROY ITS CORE. THIS PHENOMENON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. TOMORROW
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST ON ONE HAND
AND THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST, ON THE OTHER. IT IS THEREFORE
DRIVE BY A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW ON A RAPID SOUTH-EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-04 06:27


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 040624 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 78.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2020-04-04 06:25


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 040624
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 78.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 80.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 06 UTC:
24.0 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-04 00:04


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 032349 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 76.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SO: 400 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2020-04-04 00:04


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 032349 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 76.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SW: 400 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2020-04-04 00:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 032349 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 76.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 12 UTC:
22.4 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2020-04-04 00:01


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 032349
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 76.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 954 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SO: 400 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE DE
S'INTENSIFIER. DEPUIS 18Z, UN OEIL DECHIQUETE EST PRESENT SUR
L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, L'OEIL DEVIENT
MIEUX DEFINI ET IL SE RECHAUFFE. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME RESTE
PLAFONNEE A 85 KT EN RAISON DES CONTRAINTES DE DVORAK.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENCORE POUR QUELQUES HEURES DE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLES POUR POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION MALGRA LA PRA SENCE
D'UN CIAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVIENT MODERE (MAIS QUI RESTE
COMPENSA PAR UN EXCELLENT CANAL D'A VACUATION POLAIRE ET SA VITESSE
DE DA PLACEMENT). MAIS, AUJOURD'HUI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE
FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT QUI DEVRAIT A TRE SUFFISAMMENT FORT
POUR GENERER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, SUIVI
D'UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT AU SUD DE 20S. UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE A UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE COMMENCANT EN COURS OU FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
QUI PILOTE UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. CE WEEK-END,
IRONDRO DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-04 00:01


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 032349
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 76.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 954 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SW: 400 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 190 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. SINCE 18Z,
A RAGGED EYE IS PRESENT ON INFRA-RED IMAGING. IN THE LATEST IMAGES,
THE EYE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND HEATER. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AT 85 KT DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.

THE SYSTEM STILL BENEFITS FOR A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A MODERATE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (BUT COMPENSATED BY AN EXCELLENT POLARWARD OUTFLOW AND ITS
SPEED OF MOVEMENT).
BUT TODAY, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE WITH
INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION
FOLLOWED BY THE DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH
OF 20S. THUS, A WEAKENING TREND IS AWAITED, ASSOCIATED TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAT IS EXPECTED TO START LATE SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST, WHICH
DRIVES A GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS WEEK-END, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD CAPTURE IRONDRO,
MAINTAINING THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-04 00:01


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 032349
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 954 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 76.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 12 UTC:
22.4 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/04/05 AT 00 UTC:
23.4 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-03 20:40


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 200403201458
2020040318 24S IRONDRO 004 01 120 18 SATL 030
T000 195S 0758E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 210S 0781E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 223S 0806E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 236S 0829E 065 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 250S 0853E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 276S 0905E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.3S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.0S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.6S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 76.4E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
768 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A PINHOLE EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A 031717Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING, AND A WELL DEFINED AND MUCH BROADER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T4.5 (77 KNOTS) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES (PGTW/KNES/FIMP/FMEE) IN LIGHT OF A T4.6 (80 KNOTS) ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE, AS WELL AS THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, AND WARM (28-29 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER), CENTERED NEAR 2N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 12, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS, AS THE POINT SOURCE REMAINS IN PLACE AND TAPS INTO THE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12 HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 24S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BY TAU 72 WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER MOVING OVER COOL WATERS (25 DEG CELSIUS OR LOWER), BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SINGLE OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD LOOP AFTER TAU 48. DISCOUNTING THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
2420033118 130S 692E 20
2420040100 129S 693E 20
2420040106 128S 694E 20
2420040112 127S 695E 25
2420040118 126S 693E 30
2420040200 128S 692E 30
2420040206 131S 696E 35
2420040212 139S 709E 40
2420040218 151S 716E 45
2420040300 161S 725E 50
2420040300 161S 725E 50
2420040306 175S 733E 55
2420040306 175S 733E 55
2420040312 186S 742E 65
2420040312 186S 742E 65
2420040312 186S 742E 65
2420040318 195S 758E 75
2420040318 195S 758E 75
2420040318 195S 758E 75
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 20:40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.3S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.0S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.6S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 76.4E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
768 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH A
PINHOLE EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. A 031717Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHT
SPIRAL BANDING, AND A WELL DEFINED AND MUCH BROADER MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T4.5 (77
KNOTS) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES
(PGTW/KNES/FIMP/FMEE) IN LIGHT OF A T4.6 (80 KNOTS) ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE, AS WELL AS THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN
A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM,
AND WARM (28-29 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER),
CENTERED NEAR 2N 165E. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING
THROUGH TAU 12, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS, AS THE POINT SOURCE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND TAPS INTO THE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12 HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AND DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
BY TAU 48, TC 24S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BY
TAU 72 WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS (25 DEG CELSIUS OR LOWER), BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SINGLE
OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD
LOOP AFTER TAU 48. DISCOUNTING THE NAVGEM SOLUTION, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 18:11


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031807 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 75.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/1.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SO: 400 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2020-04-03 18:11


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031807 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/1.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SW: 400 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2020-04-03 18:08


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031803 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/04/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/04/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 18 UTC:
22.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

2020-04-03 18:07


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031807
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 75.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/1.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SO: 400 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
BIEN AMELIORA E. UN CDO BIEN SYMETRIQUE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRA S FROIDS
S'EST CONSTITUE ET UN POINT CHAUD APPARAA T TEMPORAIREMENT SUR
L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE. LES DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1125Z
MONTRE MAINTENANT UN COEUR CENTRAL BIEN CONSTITUA . AUSSI,
L'INTENSITA DU SYSTEME A ETE ELEVEE AU STADE INFERIEUR DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE ENORE POUR QUELQUES HEURES DE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLES POUR POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION MALGRA LA PRA SENCE
D'UN CIAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST QUI DEVIENT MODERE (MAIS QUI RESTE
COMPENSA PAR UN EXCELLENT CANAL D'A VACUATION POLAIRE ET SA VITESSE
DE DA PLACEMENT). MAIS, EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE
DEGRADE FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT QUI DEVRAIT A TRE
SUFFISAMMENT FORT POUR GENERER DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU
SYSTEME, SUIVI D'UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT AU SUD
DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE A UNE TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE COMMENCANT EN COURS OU FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
QUI PILOTE UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. CE WEEK-END,
IRONDRO DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-03 18:07


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031807
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/1.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SW: 400 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS IMPROVED. A
WELL-SYMMETRICAL CDO WITH VERY COLD TOPS HAS CONSTITUTED AND A HOT
SPOT TEMPORARILY APPEARS ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY. 1125Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
DATA NOW SHOWS A WELL CONSTITUTED INNER CORE. ALSO, THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAISED TO THE LOWER STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE SYSTEM STILL BENEFITS FOR A FEW HOURS OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A MODERATE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (BUT COMPENSATED BY AN EXCELLENT POLARWARD OUTFLOW AND ITS
SPEED OF MOVEMENT).
BUT TOMORROW, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE WITH
INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION
FOLLOWED BY THE DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH
OF 20S. THUS, A WEAKENING TREND IS AWAITED, ASSOCIATED TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAT IS EXPECTED TO START LATE SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST, WHICH
DRIVES A GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS WEEK-END, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD CAPTURE IRONDRO,
MAINTAINING THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-03 18:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031803
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/04/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/04/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IRONDRO) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 18 UTC:
22.5 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-03 13:05


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031241 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SO: 400 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2020-04-03 13:05


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031241 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 74.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SW: 400 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/04 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

>

2020-04-03 13:02


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 74.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SO: 400 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

L'IMAGERIE GPM DE 0901Z MONTRE QU'UN COEUR CENTRAL EST ENTRAIN DE SE
CONSTITUER. A L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE
INCURVEE CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER ET FAIT MAINTENANT PLUS D'UN TOUR
SUR LA SPIRALE LOGARITHMIQUE. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 55 KT
EN SE BASANT SUR LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES FMEE ET PGTW CONCORDANTE
A 4.0 A 12Z.

PEU OU PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE DE LA PREVISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE. LES GUIDANCES RESTENT EN BON ACCORD
SUR LES DEUX ASPECTS ET LES CHANGEMENTS APPORTES A LA PREVISION SONT
MARGINAUX: LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN MALGRE UN DEBUT DE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ATTENDU DANS LA NUIT QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPENSEE PAR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE .
EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT QUI DEVRAIT SUFFISAMMENT FORT POUR GENERER DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU COEUR DU SYSTEME, SUIVI D'UNE BAISSE DU
CONTENU OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT AU SUD DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST
ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE A UNE TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE COMMENCANT EN
COURS OU FIN DE JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE.
ON NOTE UNE INCERTITUDE MODEREE SUR LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A CAUSE NOTAMMENT DU DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE D'IRONDRO
DANS LE MEME SENS QUE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI POURRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER TEMPORAIREMENT LES EFFETS DELETERES DU
CISAILLEMENT TOUT EN PROFITANT DE LA DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
QUI PILOTE UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. CE WEEK-END,
IRONDRO DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-03 13:02


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 74.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 290 SW: 400 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/04 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/04/04 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/06 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

GPM IMAGERY OF 0901Z SHOW THAT AN INNER-CORE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING.
ON CLASSICAL IMAGERY, THE CURCVED BAND PATTERN IS STILL IMPROVING AND
WRAPS MORE THAN 1 TOUR ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 55 KT BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 4.0 FROM PGTW AND
FMEE.

LITTLE OR NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY FOR BOTH
TRACK AND INTENSITY AS THE GUIDANCE HAVE NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT:
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO
TOMORROW MORNING DESPITE SOME INCREASE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TONIGHT THAT SHOULD FIRST BE OFFSET BY THE FAST FORWARD MOTION.
TOMORROW, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE WITH
INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION
FOLLOWED BY THE DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH
OF 20S. THUS, A WEAKENING TREND IS AWAITED, ASSOCIATED TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAT IS EXPECTED TO START LATE SUNDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEAKENING, NOTABLY USE TO IRONDRO'S QUICK MOTION ALONGSIDE THE
DIRECTION OF THE UPPER CONSTRAINT, WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO
TEMPORARILY RESIST THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE WIND SHEAR WHILE
BENEFITING FROM THE STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST, WHICH
DRIVES A GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS WEEK-END, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD CAPTURE IRONDRO,
MAINTAINING THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
LOW SPREAD.=

>

2020-04-03 12:28


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 031225
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/04/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/04/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 74.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 155
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 215 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 225 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 00 UTC:
20.3 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 12 UTC:
21.7 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-03 08:10


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 200403070814
2020040306 24S IRONDRO 003 01 150 16 SATL 045
T000 175S 0733E 055 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 115 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 195S 0752E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 210S 0773E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 224S 0797E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 238S 0821E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 264S 0869E 040 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.5S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.4S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 73.8E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
626 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
2420033118 130S 692E 20
2420040100 129S 693E 20
2420040106 128S 694E 20
2420040112 127S 695E 25
2420040118 126S 693E 30
2420040200 128S 692E 30
2420040206 131S 696E 35
2420040212 139S 709E 40
2420040218 151S 716E 45
2420040300 161S 725E 50
2420040300 161S 725E 50
2420040306 175S 733E 55
2420040306 175S 733E 55
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 08:05


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.5S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.4S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 73.8E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
626 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030447Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 030448Z METOP-B ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL 34-
AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII ASSESSMENTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MAXIMUM WINDS (45-50 KNOTS)
OBSERVED IN THE ASCAT IMAGERY. TC 24S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH INDICATES AN ERRONEOUS
EQUATORWARD LOOPING TRACK, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 24S
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24
DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE SOUTH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-
30C). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 75 KNOTS AT TAU 24. AFTER
TAU 36, TC 24S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN VWS (30+ KNOTS), WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMMENCE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 48. BY TAU 72, TC 24S WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW, NEAR THE JET, WITH VWS
INCREASING TO 45-55 KNOTS AND SST VALUES COOLING TO LESS THAN 25C.
TC 24S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 07:01


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030640 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 73.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 340 SO: 340 NO: 340
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

2020-04-03 07:01


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030640 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 73.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 340 SW: 340 NW: 340
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/03 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

2020-04-03 06:58


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/11/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 73.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 340 SO: 340 NO: 340
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN BANDES INCURVEES, CONTINU A S'AMELIORER.
RECEMMENT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SOUS FORME DE "HOT TOWERS" S'EST
RENFORCEE PRES DU CENTRE, SUGGERANT QUE LE COEUR CENTRAL, ENCORE MAL
DEFINI SUR LES MICRO-ONDES LES PLUS RECENTES, DEVRAIT SE CONSOLIDER
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE
SUR DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES CONVERGENTES A
50 KT. LA PASS ASCAT-B DE 0447Z MONTRE QUE CES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE
SONT CANTONNES POUR L'INSTANT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A DEMAIN MATIN MALGRE UN DEBUT DE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ATTENDU DANS LA NUIT QUI DEVRAIT ETRE
COMPENSEE PAR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE .
EN JOURNEE DE DEMAIN, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE FRANCHEMENT AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT QUI DEVRAIT SUFFISAMMENT FORT POUR GENERER DES
INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC AU SEIN DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, SUIVI D'UNE BAISSE
DU CONTENU OCA ANIQUE SOUS-JACENT AU SUD DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE EST ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE A UN DEBUT DE LA
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.
ON NOTE UNE INCERTITUDE MODEREE SUR LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A CAUSE NOTAMMENT DU DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE D'IRONDRO
DANS LE MEME SENS QUE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI POURRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER TEMPORAIREMENT LES EFFETS DELETERES DU
CISAILLEMENT TOUT EN PROFITANT DE LA DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
QUI PILOTE UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. CE WEEK-END,
IRONDRO DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-03 06:58


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 73.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 340 SW: 340 NW: 340
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/03 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 96.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND RECENTLY HOT
TOWERS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT THE INNER-CORE,
ALTHOUGH STILL NOT WELL DEFINED UP TO NOW ACCORDING TO LATEST MW
IMAGERY, MAY IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. THE FINAL
INTENSITY AT 50 KT IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ASCAT-B AT 0447Z SUGGEST THAT THE STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AT
THIS TIME.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO
TOMORROW MORNING DESPITE SOME INCREASE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TONIGHT THAT SHOULD FIRST BE OFFSET BY THE FAST FORWARD MOTION.
TOMORROW, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE WITH
INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION
FOLLOWED BY THE DECREASE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH
OF 20S. THUS, A RELATIVELY QUICK WEAKENING IS AWAITED, ASSOCIATED TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT LONGER RANGE.
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEAKENING, NOTABLY USE TO IRONDRO'S QUICK MOTION ALONGSIDE THE
DIRECTION OF THE UPPER CONSTRAINT, WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO
TEMPORARILY RESIST THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE WIND SHEAR WHILE
BENEFITING FROM THE STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST, WHICH
DRIVES A GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS WEEK-END, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD CAPTURE IRONDRO,
MAINTAINING THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO,
DISPERSION REMAINS LOW.=

>

2020-04-03 06:31


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 030628
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/04/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/04/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 73.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 185
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 225 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 18 UTC:
19.3 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 06 UTC:
20.8 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-03 00:22


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030012 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 72.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 210


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/04/2020 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 102.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2020-04-03 00:22


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030012 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 72.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 210


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/03 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/04 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/04 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/04/08 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 102.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2020-04-03 00:19


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 72.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 210


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 04/04/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 04/04/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 05/04/2020 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 05/04/2020 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 06/04/2020 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/04/2020 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 08/04/2020 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 102.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE FORTE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE S'EST
PRODUITE SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD PUIS S'EST ENROULEE DE FACON
RESSERRA E AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION. CELA CORRESPOND A UNE
AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. DANS L'ATTENTE DE
NOUVELLES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES POUR SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME, L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS EST AU
STADE MAXIMAL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME A UN RYTHME SOUTENU. EN
ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE EST EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET A
QUATORIAL, A L'ARRIERE D'UNE ONDE EQUATORIALE DE KEVIN. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST FAIBLE ET LE POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE EST
IMPORTANT.
A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT
GRADUEL DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN PROFOND
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE, SUIVI D'UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU OCA ANIQUE
SOUS-JACENT SAMEDI, AU SUD DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RELATIVEMENT
RAPIDE EST ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE A UN DEBUT DE LA TRANSITION
EXTRATROPICALE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.
ON NOTE UNE INCERTITUDE MODEREE SUR LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT A CAUSE NOTAMMENT DU DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE D'IRONDRO
DANS LE MEME SENS QUE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE, CE QUI POURRAIT LUI
PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER TEMPORAIREMENT LES EFFETS DELETERES DU
CISAILLEMENT TOUT EN PROFITANT DE LA DIVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
QUI PILOTE UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. CE WEEK-END,
IRONDRO DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA DISPERSION RESTE FAIBLE JUSQU'A MARDI.=

>

2020-04-03 00:19


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 72.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 210


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/03 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/04 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/04 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/04/05 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/04/05 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/04/06 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/07 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 93.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/04/08 00 UTC: 39.4 S / 102.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BEFORE WRAPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
TIGHTLY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN.
AWAITING SOME RECENT MW IMAGES TO INVESTIGATE THE EVOLUTION OF
IRONDRO'S INNER CORE STRUCTURE, THE RSMC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AT THE
MAX STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

TODAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AT
A SUSTAINED PACE. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT BOTH ON THE POLAR AND
EQUATORIAL SIDES, IN THE WAKE OF AN EQUATORIAL KELVIN WAVE. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL HIGH.
FROM TONIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATE WITH
THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH, FOLLOWED BY THE DECREASE OF THE
AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SATURDAY, SOUTH OF 20S. THUS, A
RELATIVELY QUICK WEAKENING IS AWAITED, ASSOCIATED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AT LONGER RANGE.
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEAKENING, NOTABLY USE TO IRONDRO'S QUICK MOTION ALONGSIDE THE
DIRECTION OF THE UPPER CONSTRAINT, WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO
TEMPORARILY RESIST THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE WIND SHEAR WHILE
BENEFITING FROM THE STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST, WHICH
DRIVES A GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS WEEK-END, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD CAPTURE IRONDRO,
MAINTAINING THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO,
DISPERSION REMAINS LOW UNTIL TUESDAY.=

>

2020-04-03 00:09


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 030004
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/04/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/04/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 72.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
115 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 12 UTC:
17.8 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/04 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-02 20:19


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 200402200511
2020040218 24S IRONDRO 002 01 155 15 SATL XTRP 030
T000 149S 0716E 045 R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 169S 0731E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 186S 0749E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 202S 0771E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 216S 0797E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 242S 0846E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 274S 0904E 040 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.2S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.4S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 72.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//
2420033118 130S 692E 20
2420040100 129S 693E 20
2420040106 128S 694E 20
2420040112 127S 695E 25
2420040118 126S 693E 30
2420040200 128S 692E 30
2420040206 131S 696E 35
2420040212 136S 709E 40
2420040218 149S 716E 45
NNNN

>

2020-04-02 20:18


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.9S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.6S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.6S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.2S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 27.4S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 72.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021625Z
METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A LARGE SWATH OF 40-44KT WINDS
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A SLIGHT EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS AND THE EIR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES/FMEE ALONG WITH THE GALE-FORCE
WINDS OBSERVED IN THE ASCAT PASS. SUPPORTED BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). LOCATED WITHIN AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS STR
WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM UNTIL TAU 36, TRACKING
THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY TO
70 KTS. AFTERWARDS, TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AT THIS POINT, TC
24S WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VWS (GREATER THAN 30 KTS)
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. AROUND TAU 72, TC
24S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SST VALUES COOL TO
LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS. ETT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PLACING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND
032100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-02 18:14


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021811 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 71.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 210


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 03/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/04/2020 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 99.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

>

2020-04-02 18:14


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021811 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 71.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 210


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/03 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/03 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/04/07 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 99.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

>

2020-04-02 18:11


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021811
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 71.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 210


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 03/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 03/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 05/04/2020 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/04/2020 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/04/2020 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 99.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A BIEN REPRIS PRES DU
CENTRE PENDANT QUE L'ENROULEMENT DE LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST DE
NOUVEAU FAITE PLUS PRONONCEE. LA PASSE ASCAT-A PERMET DE CONFIRMER
QUE LA CIRCULATION DE SURFACE S'EST AFFIRMEE AVEC LES VENTS FORTS QUI
TENDENT A MIGRER PLUS PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS ENCORE UNE DISSYMETRIE
NORD/SUD MARQUEE. EN EFFET LE COUP DE VENT N'EST ATTEINT QUE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD GRACE A L'ALIMENTATION DE MOUSSON MARQUEE. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK DU CMRS EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES
(ASCAT ET ADT NOTAMMENT).

DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME A UN RYTHME SOUTENU. EN
ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE EST EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET A
QUATORIAL, A L'ARRIERE D'UNE ONDE EQUATORIALE DE KEVIN. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST FAIBLE ET LE POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE EST
IMPORTANT.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADE NETTEMENT
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE SUIVI D'UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU OCA
ANIQUE SOUS JACENT SAMEDI, AU SUD DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RELATIVEMENT RAPIDE EST ALORS ATTENDU ASSOCIE A UN DEBUT DE LA
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.
ON NOTE UNE INCERTITUDE MODEREE SUR LE TIMING DU DEBUT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVEC QUELQUES DIFFERENCES IFS/GFS DE TIMING DE MISE
EN PLACE DE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE. DE PLUS LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE
D'IRONDRO POURRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE COMPENSER TEMPORAIREMENT LES
EFFETS DELETERES DU CISAILLEMENT TOUT EN PROFITANT DE LA DIVERGENCE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU NORD-EST
QUI PILOTE UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. CE WEEK-END,
IRONDRO DEVRAIT ETRE CAPTURE PAR LE PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE
ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TRES BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN EST
FAIBLE.=

>

2020-04-02 18:11


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 71.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 210 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 210


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/03 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/03 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/04/05 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/06 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/04/07 18 UTC: 34.4 S / 99.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE TRIGGERED AGAIN
NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPING AROUND MORE
TIGHTLY. THE ASCAT-A SWATH CONFIRMED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
CONSOLIDATING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TENDING TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO
THE CENTER, BUT STILL WITH A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH ASYMMETRY. GALE FORCE
IS ONLY REACHED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THANKS TO THE STRONG
MONSOON FEED. THE RSMC DVORAK ANALYSIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA (ASCAT AND ADT).

AT FIRST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION
AT A SUSTAINED PACE. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT BOTH ON THE POLAR
AND EQUATORIAL SIDES, IN THE WAKE OF AN EQUATORIAL KELVIN WAVE.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL HIGH.
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
DETERIORATE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH, FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE OF THE
AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SATURDAY, SOUTH OF 20S. THUS, A
RELATIVELY QUICK WEAKENING IS AWAITED, ASSOCIATED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AT LONGER RANGE.
THERE IS A MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEAKENING WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO AND US MODELS IN THE
TIMING OF APPEARANCE OF THE SHEARED CONSTRAINT. MOREOVER, IRONDRO'S
QUICK MOTION COULD ALLOW IT TO TEMPORARILY RESIST THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF THE WIND SHEAR WHILE BENEFITING FROM THE STRONG DIVERGENCE
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST, WHICH
DRIVES A GLOBALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD MOTION. THIS WEEK-END, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND SHOULD CAPTURE IRONDRO,
MAINTAINING THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.=

>

2020-04-02 18:09


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 021805
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/04/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/04/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 71.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 400 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
115 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 06 UTC:
16.9 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-02 12:18


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 021213
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/04/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/04/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 70.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 400 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 70
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 00 UTC:
15.0 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-04-02 08:42


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 24S SIO 200402074230
2020040206 24S IRONDRO 001 01 135 04 SATL 030
T000 131S 0695E 035 R034 125 NE QD 025 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 148S 0712E 040 R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 166S 0728E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 184S 0745E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 203S 0770E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 236S 0826E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 266S 0888E 035 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 69.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 69.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.4S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.3S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.6S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.9E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
401 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//
2420033118 130S 692E 20
2420040100 129S 693E 20
2420040106 128S 694E 20
2420040112 127S 695E 25
2420040118 126S 693E 30
2420040200 128S 692E 30
2420040206 131S 695E 35
NNNN

>

2020-04-02 08:37


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011251ZAPR2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (IRONDRO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.1S 69.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 69.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.8S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.6S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.4S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.3S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 26.6S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 69.9E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (IRONDRO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
401 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 020506Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 020507Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE
IMAGE INDICATES EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A PATCH OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH
ASCAT INDICATED SOME HIGHER WINDS TO THE NORTH, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0-T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS). TC 24S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 24S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 60, TC
24S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH A
SHARP INCREASE IN VWS (30+ KNOTS), WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID
WEAKENING WHILE THE SYSTEM COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). AFTER TAU 72, TC 24S WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW, NEAR THE JET, WITH VWS INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS AND
SST VALUES COOLING TO LESS THAN 26C. TC 24S WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 011300).//
NNNN

>

2020-04-02 06:46


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020618 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 69.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: SO: 260 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 200 SE: SO: 130 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 02/04/2020 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 03/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 03/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-04-02 06:46


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020618 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 69.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: SW: 260 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 200 SE: SW: 130 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/02 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/03 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/03 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-04-02 06:44


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020618
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/11/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/04/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.5 S / 69.8 E
(DOUZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: SO: 260 NO: 480
34 KT NE: 200 SE: SO: 130 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 02/04/2020 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 03/04/2020 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 03/04/2020 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 04/04/2020 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 04/04/2020 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 05/04/2020 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/04/2020 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 07/04/2020 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+
AU COURS DE LA NUIT PRECEDENTE, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST RESTEE
TRES FORTE NOTAMMENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST DU SYSTA ME. DEPUIS CE
MATIN, UNE BANDE INCURVA E ATTEIGNANT UN DEMI-TOUR SE DEVELOPPE DANS
CE MA ME SECTEUR AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE QUI APPARAA T BIEN DEFINI SUR
L'IMAGERIE GEOSTATIONNAIRE. LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCAT MONTRENT QUE
LE COUP DE VENT EST PRESENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE LA
CIRCULATION. AUSSI, LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE A 06Z PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME AVEC UN RYTHME SOUTENU. EN ALTITUDE, LA
DIVERGENCE EST EXCELLENTE A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET A QUATORIALE. LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EST FAIBLE ET LE POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE EST
IMPORTANT.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVRAIT NETTEMENT SE DA GRADER
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AINSI QU'UNE BAISSE DU CONTENU OCA
ANIQUE SOUS JACENT AU SUD DE 20S. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE EST ALORS
ATTENDU ASSOCIE AU DEBUT DE LA TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
DORSALE EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE DANS SON QUADRANT
NORD-EST QUI FAVORISE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-EST. A
PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, SON DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT ETRE ORIENTE PAR LE
PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ARRIVANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST, CE QUI DEVRAIT
MAINTENIR LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST. LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR LE CAP DE LA TRAJECTOIRE, LA
VITESSE QUANT A ELLE RESTE PLUS INCERTAINE.=

>

2020-04-02 06:44


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020618
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO)

2.A POSITION 2020/04/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 69.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: SW: 260 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 200 SE: SW: 130 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/04/02 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/04/03 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/04/03 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/04/04 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/04/04 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/04/05 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/04/06 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/04/07 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
DURING THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED VERY STRONG,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE THIS MORNING,
A CURVED BAND REACHING A HALF-TURN IS DEVELOPING IN THE SAME SECTOR
AROUND A CENTER THAT APPEARS WELL DEFINED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.
THE LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWS THAT GALE FORCE WIND IS PRESENT IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. ALSO, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
NAMED AT 06Z BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE TO INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM
WITH A SUSTAINED PACE. AT UPPER LEVEL, DIVERGENCE IS EXCELLENT ON
BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORIAL SIDE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW AND THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT. FROM SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH THE STRENGHTENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE DECAY OF THE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 20S. A RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST
ASSOCIATED AT LONGER RANGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IRONDRO TRACK IS DRIVEN BY AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
IN ITS NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT CONDUCING TO A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK.
THIS WEEK-END, ITS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SWIFT SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN A
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN SCENARIO (THE SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK) BUT
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.=

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2020-04-02 06:11


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 020606
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/04/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/04/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IRONDRO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 69.8 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 400 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 70
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/04/02 AT 18 UTC:
14.1 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/04/03 AT 06 UTC:
16.1 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

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