Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for VONGFONG-20
in Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 162245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 162100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 19.7N 120.4E
MOVEMENT N 6KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 20N 121E
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 20N 121E
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (22.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 19.4N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 22.8N 123.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181200UTC 28.6N 130.5E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 19.4N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 22.8N 123.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181200UTC 28.6N 130.5E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 19.4N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 19.4N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4
N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161200UTC 19.2N 120.4E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170000UTC 20.5N 120.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 171200UTC 22.1N 122.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.4N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 22.0N 122.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 181200UTC 28.6N 130.5E 105NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.4N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 22.0N 122.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 181200UTC 28.6N 130.5E 105NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 1002 HPA
AT 19.4N 120.4E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 20.5N 120.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 22.0N 122.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 28.6N 130.5E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 19.2N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 21.9N 122.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180600UTC 25.2N 126.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 19.2N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 21.9N 122.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180600UTC 25.2N 126.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200516071440
2020051606 01W VONGFONG 019 01 035 16 SATL 030
T000 193N 1205E 025
T012 206N 1211E 020
T024 222N 1218E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.6N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 120.6E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 101 NM NORTH OF VIGAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051518 162N1211E 45
0120051600 180N1195E 30
0120051606 193N1205E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 120.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 120.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.6N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.2N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 120.6E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 101 NM NORTH OF VIGAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT DRIFTED INTO THE LUZON STRAIT WITH A RAGGED,
EXPOSED, ELONGATED, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND THE
REMNANT CONVECTION SHEARED 120NM EASTWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT ASCAT PASS AND
CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING LAOAG, AND HELD
LOWER THAN THE CONSTRAINED PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. TD VONGFONG WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EVEN
STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30KTS+) LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 120.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LAND AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 160745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.
0000011800
73677

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160600UTC 18.5N 120.2E
MOVEMENT N 6KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 161800UTC 19.8N 120.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 170600UTC 21.2N 121.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 171800UTC 23.1N 123.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 18.7N 120.0E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 21.2N 121.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180600UTC 25.2N 126.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 18.7N 120.0E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 21.2N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180600UTC 25.2N 126.6E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 1000 HPA
AT 18.7N 120.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 19.8N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.2N 121.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.2N 126.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 160445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 18.3N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 20.7N 120.9E 65NM 70.
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180000UTC 23.5N 124.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 18.3N 119.9E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 20.7N 120.9E 65NM 70.
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180000UTC 23.5N 124.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200516020330
2020051600 01W VONGFONG 018 01 330 21 SATL 060
T000 180N 1200E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 080 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 199N 1199E 035 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 212N 1206E 030
T036 227N 1221E 025
T048 249N 1250E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.2N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 120.0E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051518 162N1211E 45
0120051600 180N1200E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.0N 120.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 120.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.2N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.7N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 120.0E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 120.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 120.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 160145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160000UTC 17.4N 120.3E
MOVEMENT NNW 17KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 161200UTC 18.9N 120.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 170000UTC 20.5N 120.8E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 171200UTC 22.0N 122.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 180000UTC 23.9N 125.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 17.9N 120.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 20.3N 120.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 23.5N 124.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 17.9N 120.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 20.3N 120.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 23.5N 124.6E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 1000 HPA
AT 17.9N 120.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.2N 120.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 20.3N 120.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 23.5N 124.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 152245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 152100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE TWO
ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (23.2 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 16.9N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 20.1N 120.3E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 171800UTC 22.7N 122.7E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 16.9N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 20.1N 120.3E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 171800UTC 22.7N 122.7E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200515203059
2020051518 01W VONGFONG 017 01 345 11 SATL 060
T000 162N 1211E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 184N 1206E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 200N 1208E 035 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 212N 1217E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 229N 1236E 030
T072 279N 1296E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.0N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 121.0E.
15MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96
NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051518 162N1211E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 017 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.4N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.0N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.2N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.9N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 121.0E.
15MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96
NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 16.1N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151800UTC 16.1N 120.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 160600UTC 17.7N 120.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 161800UTC 19.6N 120.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 170600UTC 21.1N 121.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 171800UTC 23.0N 123.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 16.1N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 19.7N 120.3E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171800UTC 22.7N 122.7E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 16.1N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 19.7N 120.3E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171800UTC 22.7N 122.7E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 998 HPA
AT 16.1N 120.4E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.2N 119.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 19.7N 120.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 22.7N 122.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 151645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 151500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3
N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 15.3N 121.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 19.3N 120.2E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 181200UTC 26.5N 128.6E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 151500
WARNING 151500.
WARNING VALID 161500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 992 HPA
AT 15.3N 121.1E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 18.0N 120.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 19.3N 120.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 15.3N 121.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 19.3N 120.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 181200UTC 26.5N 128.6E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200515134010
2020051512 01W VONGFONG 016 01 335 11 SATL 035
T000 151N 1214E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 045 NW QD
T012 173N 1205E 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 190N 1203E 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 204N 1209E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 240N 1251E 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 270N 1285E 030
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.4N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 27.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 121.2E.
15MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051512 151N1214E 55
0120051512 151N1214E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.4N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.0N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 27.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 121.2E.
15MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 121.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 121.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 151345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 151200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8
N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151200UTC 15.0N 121.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 160000UTC 16.8N 120.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 161200UTC 18.8N 120.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 170000UTC 20.5N 121.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 171200UTC 22.1N 123.3E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 181200UTC 25.5N 127.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 15.0N 121.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 19.1N 120.4E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181200UTC 26.5N 128.6E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 15.0N 121.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 19.1N 120.4E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181200UTC 26.5N 128.6E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 992 HPA
AT 15.0N 121.4E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.8N 120.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.1N 120.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 21.3N 122.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 26.5N 128.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 151045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (2001) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5
N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 14.5N 121.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 18.7N 119.9E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170600UTC 20.8N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180600UTC 25.0N 126.3E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 14.5N 121.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 18.7N 119.9E 57NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170600UTC 20.8N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180600UTC 25.0N 126.3E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 150900
WARNING 150900.
WARNING VALID 160900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 990 HPA
AT 14.5N 121.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 17.1N 120.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 18.7N 119.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200515073653
2020051506 01W VONGFONG 015 01 315 11 SATL 020
T000 141N 1219E 060 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T012 159N 1209E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T024 180N 1204E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 197N 1204E 040 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 210N 1215E 035 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 260N 1263E 030
T096 324N 1388E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.7N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.4N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 121.6E.
15MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051506 141N1219E 60
0120051506 141N1219E 60

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 015 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.9N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.7N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 32.4N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 121.6E.
15MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 14.0N, 121.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 14.0N, 121.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150600UTC 14.2N 121.9E
MOVEMENT NW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 151800UTC 15.3N 121.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 160600UTC 16.7N 120.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 161800UTC 18.4N 120.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 170600UTC 20.3N 121.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 180600UTC 23.9N 125.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 14.0N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 18.4N 119.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 20.8N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180600UTC 25.0N 126.3E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 14.0N 121.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 18.4N 119.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 20.8N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180600UTC 25.0N 126.3E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
990 HPA
AT 14.0N 121.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 15.8N 120.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.4N 119.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 20.8N 121.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.0N 126.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 150445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150300 UTC, TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 13.6N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 17.1N 120.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170000UTC 19.8N 120.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180000UTC 22.4N 123.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 13.6N 122.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 17.1N 120.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170000UTC 19.8N 120.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180000UTC 22.4N 123.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 985 HPA
AT 13.6N 122.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 15.1N 121.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 17.1N 120.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200515020741
2020051500 01W VONGFONG 014 01 310 12 SATL 040
T000 133N 1227E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 147N 1216E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T024 165N 1207E 050
T036 187N 1202E 045 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 201N 1206E 035 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD
T072 235N 1245E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 015 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 293N 1324E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.7N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.7N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.3N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 122.4E.
15MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65
0120051500 133N1227E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.7N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.7N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.3N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 122.4E.
15MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 13.3N, 122.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 13.3N, 122.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 150145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150000 UTC, TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (23.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150000UTC 13.2N 122.6E
MOVEMENT WNW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 151200UTC 14.7N 121.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 160000UTC 16.1N 121.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 161200UTC 17.7N 120.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 170000UTC 19.6N 121.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
72HR
POSITION 180000UTC 23.3N 125.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 13.3N 122.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 16.7N 120.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170000UTC 19.8N 120.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180000UTC 22.4N 123.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 13.3N 122.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 16.7N 120.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170000UTC 19.8N 120.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180000UTC 22.4N 123.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 985 HPA
AT 13.3N 122.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 14.5N 121.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 16.7N 120.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 19.8N 120.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 22.4N 123.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 142245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 142100 UTC, TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (22.9 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 12.7N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 16.3N 121.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161800UTC 19.4N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 171800UTC 22.3N 123.8E 160NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 12.7N 123.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 16.3N 121.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161800UTC 19.4N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 171800UTC 22.3N 123.8E 160NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 985 HPA
AT 12.7N 123.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 14.3N 122.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 16.3N 121.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200514200732
2020051418 01W VONGFONG 013 01 280 10 SATL 040
T000 125N 1236E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 135N 1223E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 153N 1213E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T036 172N 1207E 045
T048 190N 1205E 035 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 220N 1232E 040 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 266N 1292E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 123.3E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051406 122N1253E 100
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051412 123N1246E 85
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65
0120051418 125N1236E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 22.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 123.3E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.6N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.6N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 141945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141800 UTC, TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (12.6 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (22.4 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141800UTC 12.6N 123.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 150600UTC 14.0N 122.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 151800UTC 15.4N 121.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 160600UTC 16.9N 120.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 161800UTC 18.8N 121.3E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
72HR
POSITION 171800UTC 22.9N 124.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 12.6N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 15.5N 121.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 161800UTC 19.4N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 171800UTC 22.3N 123.8E 160NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 12.6N 123.5E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 15.5N 121.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 161800UTC 19.4N 121.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 171800UTC 22.3N 123.8E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 985 HPA
AT 12.6N 123.5E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 13.8N 122.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 15.5N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 19.4N 121.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 22.3N 123.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 141645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141500 UTC, TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (12.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 12.4N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 15.2N 121.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 161200UTC 18.4N 120.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.0E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 12.4N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 15.2N 121.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 161200UTC 18.4N 120.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.0E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 980 HPA
AT 12.4N 124.0E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 13.6N 122.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 15.2N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200514134656
2020051412 01W VONGFONG 012 01 285 04 SATL 030
T000 123N 1249E 085 R064 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 131N 1235E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 146N 1223E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 162N 1215E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 178N 1213E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 201N 1227E 040 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 244N 1273E 035 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 125.8E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.1N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.1N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 124.5E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 12.4N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 12.4N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141200UTC 12.3N 124.5E
MOVEMENT W 8KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 150000UTC 13.4N 123.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 151200UTC 14.6N 121.9E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 160000UTC 16.1N 121.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 161200UTC 18.0N 121.1E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 171200UTC 21.8N 122.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 181200UTC 26.0N 129.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 12.4N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 14.8N 122.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 161200UTC 18.4N 120.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.0E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 12.4N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 14.8N 122.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 161200UTC 18.4N 120.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 21.3N 122.0E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 980 HPA
AT 12.4N 124.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 13.2N 123.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 14.8N 122.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 18.4N 120.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 21.3N 122.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 141045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SEVERE TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 140900 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VONGFONG (2001) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (12.2 N) ONE TWO
FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 12.2N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 14.3N 122.3E 57NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 160600UTC 17.5N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 170600UTC 20.9N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 180600UTC 25.4N 126.5E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 12.2N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 14.3N 122.3E 57NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 160600UTC 17.5N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 170600UTC 20.9N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 965 HPA
AT 12.2N 125.0E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 12.9N 123.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 14.3N 122.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200514075031
2020051406 01W VONGFONG 011 01 275 09 SATL 015
T000 122N 1253E 100 R064 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 128N 1237E 090 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 139N 1222E 080 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 154N 1212E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 171N 1208E 045 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD
T072 202N 1218E 040 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 247N 1271E 035 R034 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 125.8E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.2N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.9N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.2N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 124.9E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140600UTC 12.2N 125.3E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 141800UTC 13.1N 123.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 150600UTC 14.2N 122.6E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 151800UTC 15.3N 121.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 160600UTC 17.0N 121.3E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 170600UTC 20.9N 122.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 180600UTC 24.3N 127.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
120HR
POSITION 190600UTC 30.3N 138.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 12.2N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 14.1N 122.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 160600UTC 17.5N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170600UTC 20.9N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 180600UTC 25.4N 126.5E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 12.2N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 14.1N 122.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 160600UTC 17.5N 121.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 170600UTC 20.9N 121.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 965 HPA
AT 12.2N 125.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 14.1N 122.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 17.5N 121.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 20.9N 121.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 25.4N 126.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 12.2N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 13.6N 123.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 160000UTC 16.5N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 170000UTC 20.0N 121.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 180000UTC 23.5N 125.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 190000UTC 29.9N 139.9E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 12.2N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 13.6N 123.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 160000UTC 16.5N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 170000UTC 20.0N 121.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 965 HPA
AT 12.2N 125.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 13.6N 123.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200514024648
2020051400 01W VONGFONG 010 01 270 08 SATL 030
T000 121N 1262E 095 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 124N 1246E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 132N 1231E 080 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 146N 1215E 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 164N 1210E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 198N 1213E 045 R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 233N 1254E 035 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 277N 1314E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 125.8E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051318 121N1270E 100
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
0120051400 121N1262E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.3N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 125.8E.
14MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.1N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.1N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140000UTC 12.1N 126.2E
MOVEMENT W 8KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 141200UTC 12.7N 124.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 150000UTC 13.6N 123.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 151200UTC 14.7N 122.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 160000UTC 16.3N 121.3E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 170000UTC 20.0N 121.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 180000UTC 23.5N 126.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 190000UTC 29.8N 136.4E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 12.1N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 13.3N 123.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 160000UTC 16.5N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 170000UTC 20.0N 121.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 180000UTC 23.5N 125.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 190000UTC 29.9N 139.9E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 12.1N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 13.3N 123.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 160000UTC 16.5N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 170000UTC 20.0N 121.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 965 HPA
AT 12.1N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 13.3N 123.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 16.5N 121.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 20.0N 121.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 23.5N 125.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 29.9N 139.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 12.1N 126.7E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 13.1N 123.9E 65NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 151800UTC 15.0N 121.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 161800UTC 18.1N 121.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 171800UTC 21.9N 124.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 181800UTC 27.2N 132.7E 360NM 70.
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 12.1N 126.7E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 13.1N 123.9E 65NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 151800UTC 15.0N 121.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 161800UTC 18.1N 121.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 965 HPA
AT 12.1N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 13.1N 123.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200513210226
2020051318 01W VONGFONG 009 01 265 09 SATL 030
T000 121N 1270E 105 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 125N 1255E 115 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 134N 1239E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 145N 1225E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 162N 1216E 085 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 195N 1216E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 234N 1256E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 276N 1317E 035 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.6N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 126.6E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051318 121N1270E 105
0120051318 121N1270E 105
0120051318 121N1270E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 127.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 127.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.2N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 27.6N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 126.6E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND
142100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 127.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.2N, 127.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131800UTC 12.2N 127.0E
MOVEMENT WSW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 140600UTC 12.5N 125.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 141800UTC 13.1N 124.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 150600UTC 14.0N 122.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 151800UTC 15.3N 121.8E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 161800UTC 18.7N 121.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 171800UTC 21.9N 124.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 181800UTC 25.7N 130.0E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 12.2N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 12.6N 124.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 151800UTC 15.0N 121.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 161800UTC 18.1N 121.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 171800UTC 21.9N 124.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 181800UTC 27.2N 132.7E 360NM 70.
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 12.2N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 12.6N 124.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 151800UTC 15.0N 121.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 161800UTC 18.1N 121.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 965 HPA
AT 12.2N 127.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 12.6N 124.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 15.0N 121.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 18.1N 121.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 21.9N 124.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 27.2N 132.7E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 12.3N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 12.9N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 151200UTC 14.6N 122.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 161200UTC 17.8N 120.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 171200UTC 20.8N 122.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 181200UTC 25.6N 129.1E 360NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 975 HPA
AT 12.3N 127.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 12.9N 124.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 12.3N 127.5E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 12.9N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 151200UTC 14.6N 122.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 161200UTC 17.8N 120.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.5N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.2N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.7N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.1N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 127.6E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200513140109
2020051312 01W VONGFONG 008 01 290 06 SATL 010
T000 122N 1279E 090 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 125N 1267E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 132N 1250E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 144N 1233E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 157N 1223E 105 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 191N 1219E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T096 217N 1240E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 252N 1283E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.5N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.2N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.7N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.1N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.7N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 127.6E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90
0120051312 122N1279E 90

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.1N, 127.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.1N, 127.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 131200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 131200UTC 12.1N 127.8E
MOVEMENT W 8KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 140000UTC 12.5N 126.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 141200UTC 12.8N 125.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 150000UTC 13.7N 123.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 151200UTC 14.7N 122.3E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 161200UTC 17.8N 120.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 171200UTC 20.8N 122.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 181200UTC 25.0N 129.0E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 12.1N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 12.7N 125.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 151200UTC 14.6N 122.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 161200UTC 17.8N 120.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 171200UTC 20.8N 122.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 181200UTC 25.6N 129.1E 360NM 70.
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 12.1N 127.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 12.7N 125.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 151200UTC 14.6N 122.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 161200UTC 17.8N 120.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 12.1N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 12.7N 125.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 14.6N 122.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.8N 120.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 20.8N 122.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.6N 129.1E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 12.1N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 13.1N 125.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 150600UTC 14.7N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 160600UTC 18.7N 121.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 170600UTC 21.8N 123.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 180600UTC 26.8N 131.3E 280NM 70.
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 12.1N 128.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 13.1N 125.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 150600UTC 14.7N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 160600UTC 18.7N 121.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 985 HPA
AT 12.1N 128.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 13.1N 125.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200513075951
2020051306 01W VONGFONG 007 01 295 04 SATL 030
T000 120N 1285E 070 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 123N 1274E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 126N 1262E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 135N 1245E 100 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 146N 1234E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 173N 1220E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 203N 1228E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 240N 1266E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 128.2E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70
0120051306 120N1285E 70

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.3N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.6N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.3N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 128.2E.
13MAY20. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.0N, 128.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 12.0N, 128.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130600UTC 12.0N 128.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 131800UTC 12.6N 126.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 140600UTC 13.0N 125.7E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 141800UTC 13.5N 124.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 150600UTC 14.4N 122.8E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 160600UTC 18.3N 121.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 170600UTC 21.7N 123.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 180600UTC 24.8N 129.6E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 12.0N 128.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 12.9N 126.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150600UTC 14.7N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 160600UTC 18.7N 121.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 170600UTC 21.8N 123.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 180600UTC 26.8N 131.3E 280NM 70.
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 12.0N 128.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 12.9N 126.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150600UTC 14.7N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 160600UTC 18.7N 121.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 12.0N 128.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 12.9N 126.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 14.7N 122.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.7N 121.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 21.8N 123.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 26.8N 131.3E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 11.9N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 12.8N 126.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 150000UTC 13.8N 123.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 160000UTC 17.6N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 170000UTC 21.0N 122.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 180000UTC 25.1N 129.0E 280NM 70.
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 11.9N 128.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 12.8N 126.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 150000UTC 13.8N 123.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 160000UTC 17.6N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 994 HPA
AT 11.9N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 12.8N 126.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200513015609
2020051300 01W VONGFONG 006 01 270 04 SATL 030
T000 118N 1289E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 120N 1281E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 124N 1269E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 128N 1257E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 135N 1245E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 158N 1219E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 193N 1216E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 229N 1257E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.0N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 128.7E.
13MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051218 118N1293E 50
0120051300 118N1289E 60
0120051300 118N1289E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 11.8N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.0N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.5N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 128.7E.
13MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 11.8N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 11.8N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 130000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 130000UTC 11.8N 128.9E
MOVEMENT W 2KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 131200UTC 12.2N 127.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 140000UTC 12.9N 126.0E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 141200UTC 13.3N 124.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 150000UTC 13.9N 123.0E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 160000UTC 16.8N 120.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 170000UTC 20.5N 121.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 180000UTC 25.0N 128.7E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 11.8N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 12.6N 126.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 150000UTC 13.8N 123.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 160000UTC 17.6N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 170000UTC 21.0N 122.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 180000UTC 25.1N 129.0E 280NM 70.
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 11.8N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 12.6N 126.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 150000UTC 13.8N 123.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 160000UTC 17.6N 121.1E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 994 HPA
AT 11.8N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 12.6N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 13.8N 123.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.6N 121.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 21.0N 122.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 25.1N 129.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 11.9N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 12.7N 126.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 141800UTC 13.6N 123.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 151800UTC 15.9N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 161800UTC 19.4N 121.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 171800UTC 23.2N 125.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 11.9N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 12.7N 126.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 141800UTC 13.6N 123.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 151800UTC 15.9N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 998 HPA
AT 11.9N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 12.7N 126.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200512195453
2020051218 01W VONGFONG 005 01 315 04 SATL 060
T000 119N 1292E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 124N 1285E 065 R064 025 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 126N 1275E 080 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 130N 1263E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 134N 1250E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 147N 1226E 095 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 174N 1213E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 211N 1231E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 085 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 129.0E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1292E 30
0120051206 110N1295E 30
0120051212 116N1295E 40
0120051218 119N1292E 50
0120051218 119N1292E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 129.0E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 11.4N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 11.4N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121800UTC 11.8N 129.1E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 130600UTC 12.5N 127.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 131800UTC 12.9N 126.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 140600UTC 13.2N 125.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 141800UTC 13.7N 123.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 151800UTC 15.3N 120.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 161800UTC 19.0N 119.4E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
120HR
POSITION 171800UTC 21.8N 122.4E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 11.4N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 12.7N 127.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 141800UTC 13.6N 123.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 151800UTC 15.9N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 161800UTC 19.4N 121.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 171800UTC 23.2N 125.8E 280NM 70.
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 11.4N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 12.7N 127.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 141800UTC 13.6N 123.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 151800UTC 15.9N 121.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) 998 HPA
AT 11.4N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 12.7N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 13.6N 123.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 15.9N 121.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 19.4N 121.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 23.2N 125.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 11.1N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 12.6N 127.4E 65NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141200UTC 12.9N 125.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151200UTC 14.2N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 161200UTC 17.4N 119.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 171200UTC 20.7N 122.6E 280NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 11.1N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 12.6N 127.4E 65NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141200UTC 12.9N 125.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151200UTC 14.2N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200512140456
2020051212 01W VONGFONG 004 01 340 06 SATL 060
T000 114N 1288E 035 R034 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 120N 1283E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 122N 1277E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 123N 1263E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 125N 1251E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 138N 1221E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 164N 1207E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 199N 1223E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 128.7E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1291E 30
0120051206 108N1290E 30
0120051212 114N1288E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2001 VONGFONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121200UTC 11.0N 129.0E
MOVEMENT N 11KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 130000UTC 12.1N 128.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 131200UTC 12.5N 127.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 140000UTC 12.9N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 141200UTC 13.2N 124.1E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 151200UTC 14.7N 121.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 161200UTC 18.0N 120.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
120HR
POSITION 171200UTC 21.5N 122.8E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 9.9N, 129.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(VONGFONG) STATUS. TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 10.8N, 129.2E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 9.9N, 129.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(VONGFONG) STATUS. TS VONGFONG IS LOCATED AT 10.8N, 129.2E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 121400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 128.7E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 11.4N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 12.0N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.2N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 128.7E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 10.8N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 12.5N 127.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141200UTC 12.9N 125.0E 90NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151200UTC 14.2N 121.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 161200UTC 17.4N 119.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 171200UTC 20.7N 122.6E 280NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 10.8N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 12.5N 127.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141200UTC 12.9N 125.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151200UTC 14.2N 121.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2001 VONGFONG (2001) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 10.8N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 12.5N 127.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 12.9N 125.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 14.2N 121.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.4N 119.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 20.7N 122.6E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200512080127
2020051206 01W ONE 003 01 350 05 SATL 050
T000 108N 1290E 030
T012 118N 1286E 035 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 122N 1279E 045 R034 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 123N 1268E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 124N 1251E 070 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 136N 1222E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 163N 1200E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 195N 1217E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 128.9E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
130900Z.//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 98N1291E 25
0120051200 103N1291E 30
0120051206 108N1290E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.3N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.3N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.5N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 128.9E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521
521 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200512013312
2020051200 01W ONE 002 01 350 05 SATL 060
T000 101N 1288E 030
T012 110N 1285E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 118N 1281E 045 R034 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 121N 1272E 055 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T048 125N 1258E 065 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T072 135N 1232E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 161N 1213E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T120 197N 1214E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 10.1N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.8N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.5N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.7N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 128.7E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 96N1289E 25
0120051200 101N1288E 30

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 10.1N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.8N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.5N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.1N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.7N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 128.7E.
12MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 9.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 128.7E.
11MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01W NWP 200511193700
2020051118 01W ONE 001 01 335 04 SATL 060
T000 096N 1288E 025
T012 106N 1285E 030
T024 114N 1282E 035 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 120N 1275E 045 R034 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 123N 1262E 055 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T072 130N 1235E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 153N 1210E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW Q
D 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 188N 1208E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 9.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.6N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 12.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 128.7E.
11MAY20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
0120050500 41N1415E 20
0120050506 41N1405E 20
0120050512 42N1395E 20
0120050518 43N1387E 20
0120050600 46N1378E 20
0120050606 48N1376E 20
0120050612 50N1372E 15
0120050618 51N1367E 15
0120050700 51N1367E 15
0120050706 58N1361E 15
0120050712 62N1359E 15
0120050718 68N1358E 15
0120050800 71N1351E 15
0120050806 73N1340E 15
0120050812 70N1337E 15
0120050818 68N1333E 15
0120050900 67N1328E 20
0120050906 68N1325E 20
0120050912 69N1323E 20
0120050918 70N1320E 20
0120051000 72N1315E 20
0120051006 78N1307E 20
0120051012 82N1303E 20
0120051018 83N1298E 20
0120051100 84N1294E 20
0120051106 87N1291E 20
0120051112 92N1290E 20
0120051118 96N1288E 25

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