Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGGA-20
in Australia, Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-05-23 19:56

WTXS51 PGTW 232000
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27S SIO 200523192614
2020052318 27S MANGGA     012  01 125 44 SATL 090
T000 216S 1047E 035 R034 205 NE QD 155 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 263S 1107E 040 R034 220 NE QD 350 SE QD 350 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 104.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 44 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 104.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.3S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 106.2E.
23MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 44 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET.//
2720051906  52S 932E  15
2720051912  56S 927E  15
2720051918  60S 923E  20
2720052000  62S 923E  20
2720052006  65S 922E  20
2720052012  69S 919E  30
2720052018  76S 918E  30
2720052100  83S 919E  35
2720052106  88S 922E  35
2720052112  93S 926E  35
2720052118  98S 931E  35
2720052200 105S 937E  35
2720052206 114S 943E  35
2720052212 125S 952E  35
2720052218 142S 959E  35
2720052300 159S 972E  35
2720052306 175S 987E  35
2720052312 192S1008E  35
2720052318 216S1047E  35
NNNN

>

2020-05-23 19:56

WTXS31 PGTW 232000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 104.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 44 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 104.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.3S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            350 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 106.2E.
23MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
525 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
44 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE REGION WITH NO
CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE REGION,
SUGGESTING COLD AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE LACK OF
A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PROVIDES VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY STEMS FROM A PARTIAL
231502Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS A FEW 35 KT WIND BARBS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY IS T1.0
(25 KTS), BELOW THE CURRENT INTENSITY. HIGH (35-40 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSET
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON THE CLOUD SIGNATURE AND ENVIRONMENT,
TC 27S IS ASSESSED AS EXTRATROPICAL. TC 27S WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, WITH AN EXPANDING 34-KT WIND FIELD, AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK. WITH TAU 12 SPREAD AT ALMOST 290 NM AND
THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-23 07:55

WTXS51 PGTW 230900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27S SIO 200523070034
2020052306 27S MANGGA     010  01 135 24 SATL 060
T000 177S 0989E 035 R034 195 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 212S 1042E 035 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 257S 1107E 040 R034 130 NE QD 280 SE QD 260 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 302S 1172E 035 R034 130 NE QD 310 SE QD 290 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 21.2S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 37 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 25.7S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 36 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 30.2S 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 100.2E.
23MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
2720051906  52S 932E  15
2720051912  56S 927E  15
2720051918  60S 923E  20
2720052000  62S 923E  20
2720052006  65S 922E  20
2720052012  69S 919E  30
2720052018  76S 918E  30
2720052100  83S 919E  35
2720052106  88S 922E  35
2720052112  93S 926E  35
2720052118  98S 931E  35
2720052200 105S 937E  35
2720052206 114S 943E  35
2720052212 125S 952E  35
2720052218 142S 959E  35
2720052300 160S 972E  35
2720052306 177S 989E  35
NNNN

>

2020-05-23 07:47

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 21.2S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 37 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 25.7S 110.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 36 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 30.2S 117.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 100.2E.
23MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
900 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A 230536Z GMI 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A 230232Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH
EXTENSIVE 25-30 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 30-35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED SOLELY ON THE ASCAT DATA. TC 27S IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
ACCELERATING WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TC 27S WILL
COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 18 TO TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRA-
TROPICAL, COLD-CORE LOW DEEPENS WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS ANTICIPATED
OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS MODERATE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION
AND FAIR AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z,
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-22 20:42

WTXS51 PGTW 222100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27S SIO 200522200124
2020052218 27S MANGGA     008  01 160 18 SATL 060
T000 142S 0959E 035 R034 220 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 169S 0990E 040 R034 205 NE QD 115 SE QD 035 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 205S 1041E 040 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 239S 1098E 035 R034 205 NE QD 320 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 294S 1173E 030
AMP
    024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 95.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 95.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.9S 99.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.5S 104.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.9S 109.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 43 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 29.4S 117.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 96.7E.
22MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1144 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
2720051906  52S 932E  15
2720051912  56S 927E  15
2720051918  60S 923E  20
2720052000  62S 923E  20
2720052006  65S 922E  20
2720052012  69S 919E  30
2720052018  76S 918E  30
2720052100  83S 919E  35
2720052106  88S 922E  35
2720052112  93S 926E  35
2720052118  98S 931E  35
2720052200 105S 937E  35
2720052206 114S 943E  35
2720052212 125S 952E  35
2720052218 142S 959E  35
NNNN

>

2020-05-22 20:42

WTXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 14.2S 95.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 95.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.9S 99.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.5S 104.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.9S 109.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 43 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 29.4S 117.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 96.7E.
22MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1144 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH POCKETS OF FLARING
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. A 221410Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS DISPLACED 110NM
NORTHEAST OF THE BROAD, ILL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH WEAKER 15-20 KT
WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REST OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON TURNING
IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE EXTRAPOLATED ASCAT ELONGATED LLCC WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLANDS (YPCC),
APPROXIMATELY 140NM NE OF THE CENTER, INDICATE 16 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AND PRESSURE RISING FROM A MINIMUM OF 1002MB TO A
CURRENT READING OF 1004MB. THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ANALYZES THE
SYSTEM AT T2.5 (35 KTS), WHILE THE PGTW FIX IS LOWER AT A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND APRF CHARACTERIZED IT AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. A 221300Z AMSU CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS
SECTION INDICATES THAT TC 27S HAS A HYBRID SIGNATURE RIGHT NOW, WITH
WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALIES ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE, AND A COLD
ANOMALY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, CHARACTERISTIC OF SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEMS; HOWEVER, THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOIST AND NOT FRONTAL. TC 27S IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH WESTERLIES OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH IT IS
TRACKING OVER WARM (28-30 DEGREE) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A
NARROW REGION OF LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 27S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT TC 27S WILL BRIEFLY CONSOLIDATE, LEADING TO SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40 KTS AT TAU 12. HOWEVER, DYNAMICAL-
STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT TC 27S WILL REMAIN A MIDDLING SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS INTO A REGION OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES,
BRINGING CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND HIGHER VWS. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, IT SHOULD RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 48 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF TC 27S TRACKS MORE
RAPIDLY THAN ANTICIPATED UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, IT COULD
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER. ONCE TC 27S HAS COMPLETED
ETT, THIS EXTRA-TROPICAL, COLD-CORE LOW MAY PRODUCE SOME GALE-FORCE
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z,
231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-05-22 08:08

WTXS51 PGTW 220900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27S SIO 200522071006
2020052206 27S MANGGA     006  01 140 09 SATL 060
T000 111S 0942E 035 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 137S 0963E 040 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 166S 0997E 045 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 201S 1045E 045 R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 238S 1104E 040 R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 303S 1236E 035
AMP
    024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 94.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 94.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.7S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.6S 99.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.1S 104.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.8S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 30.3S 123.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 94.7E.
22MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1324 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
2720051906  52S 932E  15
2720051912  56S 927E  15
2720051918  60S 923E  20
2720052000  62S 923E  20
2720052006  65S 922E  20
2720052012  69S 919E  30
2720052018  76S 918E  30
2720052100  83S 919E  35
2720052106  88S 922E  35
2720052112  93S 926E  35
2720052118  98S 931E  35
2720052200 104S 936E  35
2720052206 111S 942E  35
NNNN

>

2020-05-22 08:04

WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 94.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 94.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.7S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.6S 99.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.1S 104.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 23.8S 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 30.3S 123.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 94.7E.
22MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1324 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH ISOLATED FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION AND WEAK OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 220250Z AMSU
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW, RAGGED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE BROAD LLCC. A 220252Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED
CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE 25-30 KNOT WINDS AND A PATCH OF 30-35 KNOT
WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT 80NM NORTHEAST OF THE DEFINED CENTER. WHILE
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS, ASCAT AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REFLECT A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. TC 27S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. TC 27S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS, HOWEVER, PEAK
INTENSITY MAY BE LOWER. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, IT SHOULD RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS
IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS EXTRA-TROPICAL, COLD-CORE LOW
MAY PRODUCE SOME GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES IN THE LATER
TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-22 02:25

WTXS51 PGTW 220300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27S SIO 200522014207
2020052200 27S MANGGA     005  01 140 11 SATL 060
T000 106S 0938E 035 R034 185 NE QD 055 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 128S 0954E 040 R034 145 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 154S 0979E 045 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 184S 1020E 050 R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 219S 1072E 050 R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 279S 1171E 035
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 93.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 93.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 12.8S 95.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.4S 97.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 18.4S 102.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 21.9S 107.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 27.9S 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 94.2E.
22MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10096 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
//
2720051906  52S 932E  15
2720051912  56S 927E  15
2720051918  60S 923E  20
2720052000  62S 923E  20
2720052006  65S 922E  20
2720052012  69S 919E  30
2720052018  76S 918E  30
2720052100  83S 919E  35
2720052106  88S 922E  35
2720052112  93S 926E  35
2720052118  98S 931E  35
2720052200 106S 938E  35
NNNN

>

2020-05-22 02:23

WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 93.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 93.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 12.8S 95.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 15.4S 97.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 18.4S 102.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 21.9S 107.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 27.9S 117.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 94.2E.
22MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CYCLING, DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE BROAD,
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 212249Z SSMIS COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS PLACED ABOVE MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW AND APRF) WHICH REMAIN LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK, CYCLING NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND NEAR
A 211940Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 37 KTS. TC MANGGA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS
WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 36 AS IT TRANSITS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS TC MANGGA
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS
(>20 KTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THROUGH BY
TAU 48 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS,
COMPLETE ETT AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
THE NORTHWEST REGION OF AUSTRALIA INCLUDING LEARMONTH MAY EXPERIENCE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
DESPITE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS FAIR DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z
AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-21 21:01

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 93.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 93.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 11.6S 94.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.9S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.5S 99.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.8S 104.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 27.6S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 93.4E.
21MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1421 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD NATURE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP, ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION PRESENT IN 211547Z ASCAT
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD NATURE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP, ALONG WITH AN ELONGATED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PRESENT IN 211547Z ASCAT-B DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE 35 KTS WINDS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN
THE ASCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW AND APRF)
WHICH REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE WEAK, DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE RELATED
TO THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 27S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS
WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 27S WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 36 AS IT TRANSITS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS TC 27S CO
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS AS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE THROUGH BY TAU 48 AT WH
WHICH TIME IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72 TH
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, COMPLETE ETT AN
AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE WESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE NORTHWEST RE
REGION OF AUSTRALIA INCLUDING LEARMONTH MAY EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE WI
WIND GUSTS AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE TI
TIGHT AGREEMENT OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JT
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS FAIR DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TH
THE INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-21 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 27S SIO 200521202516
2020052118 27S MANGGA     004  01 135 07 SATL 060
T000 098S 0931E 035 R034 160 NE QD 055 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 116S 0943E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 139S 0963E 045 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 165S 0996E 050 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 198S 1043E 050 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 276S 1151E 040 R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 93.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 93.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 11.6S 94.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 13.9S 96.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 16.5S 99.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.8S 104.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 27.6S 115.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 93.4E.
21MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (MANGGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1421 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
//
2720051906  52S 932E  15
2720051912  56S 927E  15
2720051918  60S 923E  20
2720052000  62S 923E  20
2720052006  65S 922E  20
2720052012  69S 919E  30
2720052018  76S 918E  30
2720052100  83S 919E  35
2720052106  88S 922E  35
2720052112  93S 926E  35
2720052118  98S 931E  35
NNNN

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