Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for SINLAKU-20 in Viet Nam, Laos, China, Thailand from 01 Aug 2020 06:00 UTC to 02 Aug 2020 06:00 UTC

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Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for SINLAKU-20

in Viet Nam, Laos, China, Thailand

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

02/08 13:05 WTPQ50RJTD021200

02/08 13:05 WTPQ20RJTD021200

02/08 10:05 WTPQ50RJTD020900

02/08 10:05 WTPQ20RJTD020900

02/08 08:14 WTPN52PGTW020900

02/08 08:13 WTPN32PGTW020900

02/08 07:55 WTPQ30RJTD020600

02/08 07:34 WTSS20VHHH020745

02/08 07:10 WTPQ50RJTD020600

02/08 07:10 WTPQ20RJTD020600

02/08 07:10 WTJP21RJTD020600

02/08 04:32 WTSS20VHHH020445

02/08 04:05 WTPQ50RJTD020300

02/08 04:05 WTPQ20RJTD020300

02/08 03:07 WTPN52PGTW020300

02/08 03:05 WTPN32PGTW020300

02/08 02:20 WTPQ30RJTD020000

02/08 01:32 WTSS20VHHH020145

02/08 01:05 WTPQ50RJTD020000

02/08 01:05 WTPQ20RJTD020000

02/08 01:05 WTJP21RJTD020000

01/08 22:32 WTSS20VHHH012245

01/08 22:05 WTPQ50RJTD012100

01/08 22:05 WTPQ20RJTD012100

01/08 20:36 WTPN52PGTW012100

01/08 20:35 WTPN32PGTW012100

01/08 20:00 WTPQ30RJTD011800

01/08 19:34 WTSS20VHHH011945

01/08 19:05 WTPQ50RJTD011800

01/08 19:05 WTPQ20RJTD011800

01/08 19:05 WTJP21RJTD011800

01/08 16:33 WTSS20VHHH011645

01/08 16:05 WTPQ50RJTD011500

01/08 16:05 WTPQ20RJTD011500

01/08 14:22 WTPN52PGTW011500

01/08 14:20 WTPN32PGTW011500

01/08 14:05 WTPQ30RJTD011200

01/08 13:32 WTSS20VHHH011345

01/08 13:07 WTKO20RKSL011200

01/08 12:50 WTPQ50RJTD011200

01/08 12:50 WTPQ20RJTD011200

01/08 12:50 WTJP21RJTD011200

01/08 10:33 WTSS20VHHH011045

01/08 09:50 WTPQ50RJTD010900

01/08 09:50 WTPQ20RJTD010900

01/08 08:29 WTPN52PGTW010900

01/08 08:26 WTPN32PGTW010900

01/08 08:25 WTPQ30RJTD010600

01/08 07:36 WTKO20RKSL010600

01/08 07:15 WTPQ50RJTD010600

01/08 07:15 WTPQ20RJTD010600

01/08 07:15 WTJP21RJTD010600

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 20N 105E
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 20N 105E
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 19.6N 105.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 700NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 20.4N 099.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 19.6N 105.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 700NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 20.4N 099.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 200802074019
2020080206 04W SINLAKU 005 02 295 07 SATL SYNP 040
T000 197N 1058E 035 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 201N 1039E 030
T024 205N 1019E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.5N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 105.3E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78
NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNINGS
0420072818 139N1248E 15
0420072900 142N1242E 15
0420072906 145N1236E 15
0420072912 151N1222E 15
0420072918 155N1206E 15
0420073000 158N1187E 15
0420073006 161N1171E 15
0420073012 165N1153E 15
0420073018 167N1143E 20
0420073100 170N1134E 25
0420073106 172N1126E 25
0420073112 172N1120E 25
0420073118 177N1108E 25
0420080100 180N1097E 25
0420080106 185N1085E 35
0420080112 188N1076E 35
0420080118 191N1071E 35
0420080200 194N1065E 35
0420080206 197N1058E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.5N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 105.3E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78
NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF VIETNAM AND IS TRACKING INLAND WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 020625Z
AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND ALSO SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED BANDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A
020252Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TS 04W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SINLAKU IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 19.3N, 105.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7
N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 250 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION TAKES PLACE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000008700
59715

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 19.3N 105.6E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 700NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 20.2N 100.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 19.3N 105.6E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 700NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 20.2N 100.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2003 SINLAKU (2003) 992 HPA
AT 19.3N 105.6E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 700 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 20.1N 102.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 20.2N 100.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 19.3N 105.9E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 700NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 20.3N 102.0E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 19.3N 105.9E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 700NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030300UTC 20.3N 102.0E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 200802023525
2020080200 04W SINLAKU 004 02 270 07 SATL XTRP 050
T000 190N 1062E 035 R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 194N 1044E 030
T024 197N 1024E 025
T036 203N 1003E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.4N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.7N 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.3N 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 105.8E.
0420072818 139N1248E 15
0420072900 142N1242E 15
0420072906 145N1236E 15
0420072912 151N1222E 15
0420072918 155N1206E 15
0420073000 158N1187E 15
0420073006 161N1171E 15
0420073012 165N1153E 15
0420073018 167N1143E 20
0420073100 170N1134E 25
0420073106 172N1126E 25
0420073112 172N1120E 25
0420073118 177N1108E 25
0420080100 180N1097E 25
0420080106 185N1085E 35
0420080112 188N1076E 35
0420080118 190N1069E 35
0420080200 190N1062E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.4N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.7N 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.3N 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 105.8E.
02AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SINLAKU IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 106.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 020145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 020000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 19.2N 106.1E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 20.2N 102.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 19.2N 106.1E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 20.2N 102.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2003 SINLAKU (2003) 992 HPA
AT 19.2N 106.1E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 19.9N 105.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 20.2N 102.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 012245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 012100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 19.5N 106.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 20.5N 101.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 19.5N 106.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 20.5N 101.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 200801202320
2020080118 04W SINLAKU 003 02 270 09 SATL 050
T000 188N 1066E 035 R034 125 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 194N 1052E 030
T024 197N 1034E 025
T036 201N 1016E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.4N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.1N 101.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 106.2E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0420072818 139N1248E 15
0420072900 142N1242E 15
0420072906 145N1236E 15
0420072912 151N1222E 15
0420072918 155N1206E 15
0420073000 158N1187E 15
0420073006 161N1171E 15
0420073012 165N1153E 15
0420073018 167N1143E 20
0420073100 170N1134E 25
0420073106 172N1126E 25
0420073112 172N1120E 25
0420073118 177N1108E 25
0420080100 180N1097E 25
0420080106 185N1085E 35
0420080112 188N1076E 35
0420080118 188N1066E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.4N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.1N 101.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 106.2E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 03W (HAGUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SINLAKU IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 107.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000008700
55809

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 19.5N 107.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 20.4N 102.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 19.5N 107.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 20.4N 102.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011800
WARNING 011800.
WARNING VALID 021800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2003 SINLAKU (2003) 994 HPA
AT 19.5N 107.4E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 20.0N 106.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 20.4N 102.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 19.5N 107.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 19.9N 105.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 031200UTC 20.0N 103.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 19.5N 107.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 19.9N 105.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 031200UTC 20.0N 103.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 200801134844
2020080112 04W SINLAKU 002 02 305 12 SATL 050
T000 192N 1075E 035 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 199N 1061E 040 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 205N 1045E 030
T036 209N 1029E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.9N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.5N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9N 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 107.1E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141
NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z,
020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT)
0420072818 139N1248E 15
0420072900 142N1242E 15
0420072906 145N1236E 15
0420072912 151N1222E 15
0420072918 155N1206E 15
0420073000 158N1187E 15
0420073006 161N1171E 15
0420073012 165N1153E 15
0420073018 167N1143E 20
0420073100 170N1134E 25
0420073106 172N1126E 25
0420073112 172N1120E 25
0420073118 177N1108E 25
0420080100 180N1097E 25
0420080106 185N1085E 35
0420080112 192N1075E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.9N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.5N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9N 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 107.1E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141
NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z,
020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (HAGUPIT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SINLAKU IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 108.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 011200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5
N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 420 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 011200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2003 SINLAKU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 011200UTC 19.4N 108.2E
MOVEMENT NW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 020000UTC 19.9N 106.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 021200UTC 20.0N 105.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 030000UTC 20.2N 103.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 19.2N 108.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 19.9N 105.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 031200UTC 20.0N 103.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 19.2N 108.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 19.9N 105.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 031200UTC 20.0N 103.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2003 SINLAKU (2003) 994 HPA
AT 19.2N 108.1E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 19.7N 106.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 19.9N 105.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 20.0N 103.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 011045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 010900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SINLAKU (2003) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4
N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 420 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 18.9N 108.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 19.6N 106.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 030600UTC 19.8N 103.9E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 18.9N 108.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 19.6N 106.0E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 030600UTC 19.8N 103.9E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04W NWP 200801073458
2020080106 04W SINLAKU 001 02 295 15 SATL SYNP 050
T000 189N 1084E 035 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 196N 1067E 040 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 206N 1053E 030
T036 215N 1036E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.6N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.6N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.5N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 108.0E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174
NM NORTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z,
020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
0420072818 139N1248E 15
0420072900 142N1242E 15
0420072906 145N1236E 15
0420072912 151N1222E 15
0420072918 155N1206E 15
0420073000 158N1187E 15
0420073006 161N1171E 15
0420073012 165N1153E 15
0420073018 167N1143E 20
0420073100 170N1134E 25
0420073106 172N1126E 25
0420073112 172N1120E 25
0420073118 177N1108E 25
0420080100 183N1098E 25
0420080106 189N1084E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311821ZJUL2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.6N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 20.6N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 21.5N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 108.0E.
01AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SINLAKU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174
NM NORTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z,
020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 311830).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 18.0N, 110.7E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(SINLAKU) STATUS. TS SINLAKU IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 108.6E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 010600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2003 SINLAKU
ANALYSIS
POSITION 010600UTC 18.4N 110.1E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 011800UTC 19.2N 107.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 020600UTC 19.6N 106.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 021800UTC 19.8N 105.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 030600UTC 20.4N 104.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 18.5N 108.6E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 19.5N 106.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 030600UTC 19.8N 103.9E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2003 SINLAKU (2003) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 18.5N 108.6E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 600NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 19.5N 106.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 030600UTC 19.8N 103.9E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2003 SINLAKU (2003) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
994 HPA
AT 18.5N 108.6E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 600 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 19.0N 107.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 19.5N 106.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 19.8N 103.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

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