Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOSEPHINE-20
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 121442
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better
organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature
and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle.
However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted
in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the
center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains
30 kt.

The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or
the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is
expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the
south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of
the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight
weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of
the various consensus models.

The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification
should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the
cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain
in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time.
Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly
shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough
over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system
to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to
degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity
forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show
weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has
only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper
edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 121442
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020
1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 44.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 44.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 44.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 121442
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 44.2W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 44.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with
this motion continuing through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 120900
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

After an earlier burst of deep convection near the center and in
the western semicircle of the circulation, overall thunderstorm
activity has decreased somewhat. This is likely due to the
entrainment of mid-/upper-level dry air as noted in GOES-16
high-resolution mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery, in
conjunction with some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear.
The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT of 30 kt and 33 kt,
respectively, support maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression continues moving a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through
tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong
subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. By 24 h, all
of the global models are in decent agreement that a slight weakness
will develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn more
toward the west-northwest and then continue that motion through the
end of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant track
changes were made.

The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment
and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive
environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move
underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone.
This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a
pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much
lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air
entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding
environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected
to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but
steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and
beyond, the global models and regional models show the system
moving out from underneath the positive influence of the
upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce
gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h
period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface
temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of
opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is
currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar
to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the
consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to
anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 12.2N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 42.9W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 42.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A motion
toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin tonight and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 120848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020
0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 42.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 42.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 120233
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has
returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While
this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective
pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than
any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few
hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30
kt.

By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this
environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding
mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming
SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further
intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing
southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry
air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't
be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5
as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed
prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory
through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA
corrected-consensus mean.

The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the
south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the
depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of
the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in
remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of
the model consensus. The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near
the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence
the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 12.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 120231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020
0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 41.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 112032
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day
have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring
over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated
circulation with a well-defined center. For the most part, deep
convection has persisted with the system since about this time
yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning.
The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with
30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity
numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a
large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic.
This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break
developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours.
This change should allow the depression to begin making more
poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until
the end of the forecast period. The track models are in good
agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed,
and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days. This first NHC forecast
lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster
through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model,
and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5.

Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses
suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from
much drier air to its north and west. However, as has been the
case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been
pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation.
This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which
should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a
peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days. For
this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and
the IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, westerly or
southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt
by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening.
In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that
the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough
near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible
alternate scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 11.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 112032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 40.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 40.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to
begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 112032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 40.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 40.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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