Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-20
in China, Democratic Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200827071033
2020082706 09W BAVI 024 01 015 26 SATL 060
T000 416N 1258E 040 R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 451N 1285E 030
T024 463N 1299E 025
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 41.6N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 41.6N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.1N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 42.5N 126.5E.
27AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082700 391N1248E 65
0920082700 391N1248E 65
0920082700 391N1248E 65
0920082706 416N1258E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 41.6N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 41.6N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.1N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 46.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 42.5N 126.5E.
27AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
249 NM NORTH OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND COMPOSITE RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION IN THE MSI AND
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAINLAND
CHINA AND INDICATES THAT A RAPID WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE,
LARGELY DUE TO THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH OVER LAND PASSAGE. THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT IT IS CURRENTLY
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 12. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL NATURE OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL REMAIN STRONG, WITH 30 KTS AT TAU 12 ONLY
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH AEMN AND AFUM THE SOLE OUTLIERS WHICH BRING THE
REMINANTS OF THE CIRCULATION WESTWARD. DESPITE THESE OUTLIERS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 29
NAME LOW FROM 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270600UTC 42.0N 125.6E
MOVEMENT N 38KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 42N 125E
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 992HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 42N 125E
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 992HPA =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 985 HPA
AT 40.1N 125.1E KOREA MOVING NORTH 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 45.2N 128.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 46.7N 133.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 40.1N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 46.7N 133.1E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 40.1N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 46.7N 133.1E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200827012202
2020082700 09W BAVI 023 01 010 23 SATL 060
T000 391N 1248E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 435N 1268E 045
T024 466N 1313E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 39.1N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.1N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 40.2N 125.3E.
27AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
NORTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082700 391N1248E 65
0920082700 391N1248E 65
0920082700 391N1248E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 39.1N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.1N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.6N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 40.2N 125.3E.
27AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
NORTHWEST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 39.0N, 125.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270000UTC 39.4N 125.4E
MOVEMENT N 25KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.9N 127.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 39.0N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 46.7N 131.5E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 39.0N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 46.7N 131.5E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 39.0N 125.4E KOREA MOVING NORTH 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 44.6N 126.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 46.7N 131.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 262100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 262100UTC 38.2N 125.1E
MOVEMENT N 24KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 270300UTC 40.9N 125.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
12HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.5N 126.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 271500UTC 46.2N 127.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 37.6N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 46.8N 128.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 965 HPA
AT 37.6N 125.1E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 43.2N 126.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 46.8N 128.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 37.6N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 46.8N 128.4E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200826194321
2020082618 09W BAVI 022 01 010 19 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 368N 1243E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 415N 1257E 055
T024 454N 1285E 035
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 36.8N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 38.0N 124.6E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082606 334N1243E 95
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082612 349N1242E 90
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082618 368N1243E 80
0920082618 368N1243E 80

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 36.8N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.4N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 38.0N 124.6E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 36.9N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261800UTC 37.0N 124.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 21KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.6N 125.5E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
12HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.2N 126.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
18HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.8N 126.9E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 271800UTC 47.3N 128.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 36.9N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 45.9N 128.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 36.9N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 45.9N 128.0E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 965 HPA
AT 36.9N 125.3E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 42.3N 125.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 45.9N 128.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261500UTC 36.0N 124.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 19KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 262100UTC 38.3N 125.2E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
12HR
POSITION 270300UTC 40.9N 125.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
18HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.5N 126.5E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 271500UTC 46.1N 127.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 36.0N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 44.7N 126.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 36.0N 124.8E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 40.2N 124.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 44.7N 126.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 36.0N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 44.7N 126.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200826142246
2020082612 09W BAVI 021 01 355 14 SATL SYNP 015
T000 350N 1243E 095 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 391N 1247E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 432N 1259E 045
T036 468N 1282E 035
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 35.0N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.0N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 36.0N 124.4E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 35 F
EET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082606 336N1244E 95
0920082606 336N1244E 95
0920082606 336N1244E 95
0920082612 350N1243E 95
0920082612 350N1243E 95
0920082612 350N1243E 95

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 35.0N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.0N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.2N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 36.0N 124.4E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 35.0N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND STRONG VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE KOREAN PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT18. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261200UTC 35.1N 124.5E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 261800UTC 37.1N 125.0E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
12HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.6N 125.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
18HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.1N 126.1E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.8N 126.8E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 271800UTC 47.0N 127.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 35.0N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 44.1N 125.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 35.0N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 44.1N 125.9E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 950 HPA
AT 35.0N 124.6E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 38.9N 124.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 44.1N 125.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260900UTC 34.3N 124.4E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 261500UTC 36.1N 124.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
12HR
POSITION 262100UTC 38.3N 125.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
18HR
POSITION 270300UTC 40.9N 125.8E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.4N 126.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 271500UTC 45.9N 127.1E WITHIN 0NM
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 34.3N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 42.4N 125.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 280600UTC 46.6N 127.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 34.3N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 42.4N 125.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 280600UTC 46.6N 127.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 950 HPA
AT 34.3N 124.3E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 38.0N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 42.4N 125.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200826081604
2020082606 09W BAVI 020 01 355 12 SATL SYNP 020
T000 336N 1244E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 135 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 370N 1244E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 413N 1249E 055
T036 452N 1264E 040
T048 484N 1280E 030
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 33.6N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 48.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 124.4E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082606 336N1244E 95
0920082606 336N1244E 95
0920082606 336N1244E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200826012657
2020082600 09W BAVI 019 01 345 11 SATL 020
T000 324N 1245E 100 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 353N 1243E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 392N 1245E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 435N 1253E 050
T048 480N 1265E 040
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 32.4N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.2N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 48.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 124.5E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z,
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082518 313N1248E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
0920082600 324N1245E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200825200031
2020082518 09W BAVI 018 01 340 08 SATL 010
T000 313N 1248E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 336N 1246E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 370N 1246E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 410N 1250E 060
T048 458N 1265E 040
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 31.3N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 124.7E.
25AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082512 305N1251E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 95
0920082518 313N1248E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 32.4N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.2N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 43.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 48.0N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 33.1N 124.5E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z,
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 31.3N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 124.7E.
25AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 33.6N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.6N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.2N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 48.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 124.4E.
26AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 33.5N, 124.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND OR THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LAND, STRONG VWS AND LOW SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260600UTC 33.5N 124.4E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 261200UTC 35.1N 124.7E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 261800UTC 37.1N 125.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
18HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.6N 125.5E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.1N 126.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.7N 126.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 271800UTC 47.0N 127.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 33.5N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 41.8N 124.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280600UTC 46.6N 127.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 33.5N 124.3E GOOD
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 41.8N 124.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280600UTC 46.6N 127.4E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 950 HPA
AT 33.5N 124.3E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 36.8N 124.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 41.8N 124.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 46.6N 127.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260300UTC 32.9N 124.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 260900UTC 34.3N 124.6E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 261500UTC 36.0N 124.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
18HR
POSITION 262100UTC 38.3N 125.2E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 270300UTC 40.9N 125.8E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
30HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.3N 126.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 271500UTC 45.9N 127.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 32.8N 124.4E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 40.3N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 280000UTC 46.5N 126.0E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 950 HPA
AT 32.8N 124.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 35.7N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 40.3N 124.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 32.8N 124.4E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 40.3N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 280000UTC 46.5N 126.0E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN
PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260000UTC 32.3N 124.6E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.6N 124.6E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 261200UTC 35.1N 124.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
18HR
POSITION 261800UTC 37.1N 125.0E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.6N 125.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
30HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.2N 126.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.5N 126.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 280000UTC 47.1N 127.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 32.3N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 39.0N 124.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 280000UTC 46.5N 126.0E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 32.3N 124.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 39.0N 124.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 280000UTC 46.5N 126.0E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 950 HPA
AT 32.3N 124.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 34.7N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 39.0N 124.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 46.5N 126.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 252100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 252100UTC 31.8N 124.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 260300UTC 32.9N 124.7E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 260900UTC 34.3N 124.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
18HR
POSITION 261500UTC 36.0N 125.0E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 262100UTC 38.3N 125.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
30HR
POSITION 270300UTC 40.9N 126.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.4N 126.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
42HR
POSITION 271500UTC 45.4N 127.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 272100UTC 46.6N 127.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 31.7N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 37.8N 124.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 271800UTC 45.7N 126.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 31.7N 124.7E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 37.8N 124.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 271800UTC 45.7N 126.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 31.7N 124.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 33.9N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 37.8N 124.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 31.4N, 124.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN
PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251800UTC 31.4N 124.8E
MOVEMENT N 9KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 260000UTC 32.3N 124.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.5N 124.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
18HR
POSITION 261200UTC 35.1N 125.0E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 261800UTC 37.1N 125.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
30HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.6N 125.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.2N 126.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
42HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.5N 126.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 271800UTC 46.0N 127.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 31.4N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 36.5N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 271800UTC 45.7N 126.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 31.4N 124.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 36.5N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 271800UTC 45.7N 126.3E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 31.4N 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 33.1N 124.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 36.5N 124.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 45.7N 126.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251500UTC 30.9N 124.9E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 252100UTC 31.8N 124.9E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 260300UTC 32.8N 124.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
18HR
POSITION 260900UTC 34.3N 124.9E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 261500UTC 36.0N 125.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
30HR
POSITION 262100UTC 38.2N 125.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 270300UTC 41.0N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
42HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.5N 126.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 271500UTC 45.3N 127.1E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
54HR
POSITION 272100UTC 46.5N 127.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 30.9N 124.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 32.4N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 35.5N 124.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 30.9N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 35.5N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 271200UTC 44.4N 125.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 30.9N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 35.5N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 271200UTC 44.4N 125.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200825145029
2020082512 09W BAVI 017 01 340 07 SATL 015
T000 306N 1252E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 324N 1247E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 354N 1247E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 396N 1249E 085 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 441N 1257E 060
T072 483N 1276E 035
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 30.6N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 48.3N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 125.1E.
25AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082506 299N1255E 95
0920082512 306N1252E 95
0920082512 306N1252E 95
0920082512 306N1252E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 30.6N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.4N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 48.3N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 125.1E.
25AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND
261500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 30.6N, 125.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN
PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251200UTC 30.6N 125.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 251800UTC 31.4N 125.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
12HR
POSITION 260000UTC 32.2N 125.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
18HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.5N 125.0E WITHIN 50NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 261200UTC 35.1N 125.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
30HR
POSITION 261800UTC 37.1N 125.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.5N 125.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
42HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.4N 126.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 271200UTC 44.4N 126.8E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
54HR
POSITION 271800UTC 45.9N 127.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 30.6N 125.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 34.7N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 271200UTC 44.4N 125.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 30.6N 125.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 34.7N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 271200UTC 44.4N 125.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 30.6N 125.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 31.9N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 34.7N 124.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 44.4N 125.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250900UTC 30.2N 125.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 252100UTC 31.5N 125.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
24HR
POSITION 260900UTC 34.0N 125.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
36HR
POSITION 262100UTC 38.3N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 270900UTC 43.4N 126.5E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
60HR
POSITION 272100UTC 46.1N 127.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 30.2N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 33.9N 124.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 270600UTC 41.9N 124.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 280600UTC 46.8N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 30.2N 125.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 31.4N 124.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 33.9N 124.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 30.2N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 33.9N 124.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 270600UTC 41.9N 124.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 280600UTC 46.8N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN
PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250600UTC 29.8N 125.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251800UTC 31.0N 125.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
24HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.1N 125.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
36HR
POSITION 261800UTC 37.0N 125.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 270600UTC 42.3N 126.2E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
60HR
POSITION 271800UTC 45.8N 127.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 29.8N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 33.3N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 270600UTC 41.9N 124.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 280600UTC 46.8N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 29.8N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 33.3N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 270600UTC 41.9N 124.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 280600UTC 46.8N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 955 HPA
AT 29.8N 125.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.0N 124.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 33.3N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 41.9N 124.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 46.8N 125.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 29.5N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 33.1N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 270000UTC 39.5N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 280000UTC 46.5N 124.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 965 HPA
AT 29.5N 125.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 30.8N 124.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 33.1N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 29.5N 125.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 33.1N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 270000UTC 39.5N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 280000UTC 46.5N 124.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200825015756
2020082500 09W BAVI 015 01 330 07 SATL 030
T000 292N 1257E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 305N 1250E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 325N 1246E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 354N 1245E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 392N 1248E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 467N 1268E 035
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 29.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 125.5E.
25AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
0920082500 292N1257E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 29.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 125.5E.
25AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM NORTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z
IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 29.1N, 125.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN
PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250000UTC 29.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251200UTC 30.3N 125.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 260000UTC 31.9N 125.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 261200UTC 34.6N 125.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 270000UTC 39.0N 125.7E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
60HR
POSITION 271200UTC 43.3N 126.6E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 280000UTC 47.6N 128.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 29.1N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 32.2N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 270000UTC 39.5N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 280000UTC 46.5N 124.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 29.1N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 32.2N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 270000UTC 39.5N 124.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 280000UTC 46.5N 124.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 965 HPA
AT 29.1N 125.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 30.3N 125.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 32.2N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 39.5N 124.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 46.5N 124.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 28.8N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 31.9N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 261800UTC 36.8N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 271800UTC 45.5N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 965 HPA
AT 28.8N 125.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 30.2N 125.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 31.9N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 28.8N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 31.9N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 261800UTC 36.8N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 271800UTC 45.5N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200824200042
2020082418 09W BAVI 014 01 330 03 SATL RADR 040
T000 286N 1261E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 297N 1255E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 311N 1250E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 335N 1247E 105 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 371N 1247E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 446N 1263E 040
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 28.6N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 44.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 126.0E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082406 279N1265E 75
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082412 283N1263E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90
0920082418 286N1261E 90

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 28.6N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.1N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 44.6N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 126.0E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 126.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EXPANSION OF A CDO PATTERN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA OR THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 28.5N 126.0E
MOVEMENT W 2KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250600UTC 29.8N 125.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
24HR
POSITION 251800UTC 30.9N 125.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
36HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.1N 125.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 261800UTC 36.4N 125.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
60HR
POSITION 270600UTC 40.3N 126.0E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 271800UTC 44.9N 127.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 28.6N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 31.2N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 261800UTC 36.8N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 271800UTC 45.5N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 28.6N 126.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 70NM WEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 31.2N 124.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 261800UTC 36.8N 124.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 271800UTC 45.5N 125.4E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 965 HPA
AT 28.6N 126.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 29.9N 125.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.2N 124.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 36.8N 124.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 45.5N 125.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 28.5N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 30.8N 125.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 261200UTC 34.8N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 271200UTC 44.2N 125.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 970 HPA
AT 28.5N 126.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 29.6N 125.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 30.8N 125.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 28.5N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 30.8N 125.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 261200UTC 34.8N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 271200UTC 44.2N 125.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200824134733
2020082412 09W BAVI 013 01 345 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 285N 1264E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 295N 1259E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 307N 1253E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 325N 1250E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 357N 1250E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 441N 1255E 040
T096 492N 1281E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 28.5N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 49.2N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 126.3E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 278N1266E 75
0920082406 278N1266E 75
0920082406 278N1266E 75
0920082412 285N1264E 95
0920082412 285N1264E 95
0920082412 285N1264E 95

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 28.5N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.5N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.7N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 49.2N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 126.3E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360
DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241200UTC 28.4N 126.2E
MOVEMENT NW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250000UTC 29.4N 126.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 251200UTC 30.3N 125.7E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
36HR
POSITION 260000UTC 31.8N 125.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
48HR
POSITION 261200UTC 34.7N 125.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
60HR
POSITION 270000UTC 38.3N 125.6E WITHIN 115NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 271200UTC 42.4N 126.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
84HR
POSITION 280000UTC 46.9N 128.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 28.4N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 30.4N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 261200UTC 34.8N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 271200UTC 44.2N 125.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 28.4N 126.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 30.4N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 261200UTC 34.8N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 271200UTC 44.2N 125.3E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 970 HPA
AT 28.4N 126.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 29.3N 125.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 30.4N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 34.8N 124.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 44.2N 125.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 28.2N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 30.2N 125.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 260600UTC 33.6N 124.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 270600UTC 42.3N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 280600UTC 47.6N 125.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 975 HPA
AT 28.2N 126.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 29.1N 125.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 30.2N 125.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 28.2N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 30.2N 125.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 260600UTC 33.6N 124.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 270600UTC 42.3N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200824082743
2020082406 09W BAVI 012 01 045 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 278N 1266E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 287N 1264E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 298N 1259E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 313N 1255E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 339N 1253E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 416N 1252E 050
T096 478N 1261E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 47.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 126.6E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082406 278N1266E 75
0920082406 278N1266E 75
0920082406 278N1266E 75

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 27.8N 126.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 126.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.8N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.9N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 47.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 126.6E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 27.8N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240600UTC 27.8N 126.4E
MOVEMENT NNE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241800UTC 29.0N 126.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 250600UTC 29.8N 125.9E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 251800UTC 31.0N 125.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.3N 125.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 270600UTC 40.2N 125.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 280600UTC 48.4N 129.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 27.8N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 29.9N 125.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 260600UTC 33.6N 124.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 270600UTC 42.3N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 280600UTC 47.6N 125.0E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 27.8N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 29.9N 125.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 260600UTC 33.6N 124.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 270600UTC 42.3N 124.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) 975 HPA
AT 27.8N 126.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 28.9N 126.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 29.9N 125.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 33.6N 124.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 42.3N 124.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 47.6N 125.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 27.4N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 29.3N 125.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 260000UTC 32.2N 125.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 270000UTC 40.2N 124.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 280000UTC 47.3N 123.8E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 27.4N 126.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 28.3N 126.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 29.3N 125.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 27.4N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 29.3N 125.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 260000UTC 32.2N 125.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 270000UTC 40.2N 124.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200824021819
2020082400 09W BAVI 011 01 050 05 SATL RADR 030
T000 273N 1260E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 281N 1262E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 291N 1257E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 304N 1251E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 322N 1249E 095 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 395N 1247E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 464N 1250E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 27.3N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.0E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082318 270N1256E 65
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
0920082400 273N1260E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 27.3N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 39.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.4N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.0E.
24AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 27.2N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240000UTC 27.3N 126.0E
MOVEMENT ENE 7KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241200UTC 28.5N 126.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 250000UTC 29.4N 126.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 251200UTC 30.4N 125.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 260000UTC 32.2N 125.5E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 270000UTC 38.2N 125.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 280000UTC 46.6N 126.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 27.2N 126.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 29.2N 126.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260000UTC 32.2N 125.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 270000UTC 40.2N 124.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 280000UTC 47.3N 123.8E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 27.2N 126.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 29.2N 126.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260000UTC 32.2N 125.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 270000UTC 40.2N 124.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 985 HPA
AT 27.2N 126.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 28.2N 126.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 29.2N 126.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 32.2N 125.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 40.2N 124.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 47.3N 123.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 27.1N 126.1E FAIR
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 28.7N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251800UTC 31.3N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 261800UTC 37.3N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 271800UTC 46.3N 124.3E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 985 HPA
AT 27.1N 126.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 27.9N 126.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 28.7N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 27.1N 126.1E FAIR
MOVE E 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 28.7N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251800UTC 31.3N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 261800UTC 37.3N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200823201127
2020082318 09W BAVI 010 01 070 03 SATL RADR 045
T000 270N 1255E 065 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 277N 1259E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 286N 1257E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 297N 1252E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 313N 1249E 095 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 374N 1246E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 454N 1251E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 125.6E.
23AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082300 264N1240E 55
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082306 268N1246E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082312 269N1252E 60
0920082318 270N1255E 65
0920082318 270N1255E 65
0920082318 270N1255E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 27.0N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.7N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 45.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 125.6E.
23AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 27.1N, 125.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231800UTC 27.1N 125.3E
MOVEMENT NE 5KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240600UTC 28.1N 126.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 241800UTC 28.9N 126.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 250600UTC 29.7N 125.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 251800UTC 31.3N 125.6E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 261800UTC 36.1N 125.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 271800UTC 44.2N 126.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 27.1N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 28.9N 125.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251800UTC 31.3N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 261800UTC 37.3N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 271800UTC 46.3N 124.3E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 27.1N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 28.9N 125.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251800UTC 31.3N 124.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 261800UTC 37.3N 124.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 985 HPA
AT 27.1N 125.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 28.2N 126.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 28.9N 125.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.3N 124.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 37.3N 124.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 46.3N 124.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 231645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1
N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE
HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
THREE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (38.2 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
FOUR SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (46.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 27.0N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 29.0N 125.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251200UTC 31.1N 124.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 261200UTC 36.8N 124.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 271200UTC 45.9N 123.8E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 27.0N 125.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 28.1N 125.8E WITH 28 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 29.0N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 27.0N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 29.0N 125.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 251200UTC 31.1N 124.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 261200UTC 36.8N 124.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200823140045
2020082312 09W BAVI 009 01 065 08 SATL RADR 030
T000 270N 1252E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 279N 1258E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 288N 1258E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 297N 1254E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 314N 1251E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 368N 1247E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 445N 1253E 040
T120 496N 1271E 015
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 27.0N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 36.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 49.6N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 125.4E.
23AUG20. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 263N1238E 55
0920082300 263N1238E 55
0920082306 267N1244E 65
0920082306 267N1244E 65
0920082312 270N1252E 70
0920082312 270N1252E 70
0920082312 270N1252E 70

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 27.0N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 36.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.5N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 49.6N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 27.2N 125.4E.
23AUG20. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516
NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 27.0N, 124.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 231345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (125.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (37.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC
FOUR FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (45.7 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231200UTC 26.8N 125.0E
MOVEMENT ENE 4KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240000UTC 27.6N 125.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 241200UTC 28.5N 126.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 250000UTC 29.3N 126.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 251200UTC 30.5N 125.7E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 261200UTC 34.7N 125.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 271200UTC 40.7N 125.9E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 281200UTC 45.8N 127.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 27.0N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 28.7N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251200UTC 31.1N 124.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 261200UTC 36.8N 124.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 271200UTC 45.9N 123.8E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 27.0N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 28.7N 125.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 251200UTC 31.1N 124.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 261200UTC 36.8N 124.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 27.0N 124.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 27.9N 125.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 28.7N 125.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 31.1N 124.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 36.8N 124.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 45.9N 123.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 231045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (125.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
THREE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (36.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC
FOUR FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (44.8 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 26.7N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 28.6N 125.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 250600UTC 30.6N 125.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 260600UTC 34.6N 124.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 270600UTC 41.9N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 280600UTC 49.7N 126.2E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 26.7N 124.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 27.7N 125.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 28.6N 125.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 26.7N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 28.6N 125.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 250600UTC 30.6N 125.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 260600UTC 34.6N 124.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200823075217
2020082306 09W BAVI 008 01 055 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 267N 1244E 065 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 275N 1254E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 283N 1258E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 292N 1256E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 303N 1251E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 347N 1248E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 419N 1251E 045
T120 481N 1267E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 26.7N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 34.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 48.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 124.7E.
23AUG20. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 263N1238E 55
0920082300 263N1238E 55
0920082306 267N1244E 65
0920082306 267N1244E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 26.7N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.5N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.2N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.3N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 34.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 48.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 124.7E.
23AUG20. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHINHAE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 124.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 230745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (30.3 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (34.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC
FOUR TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (42.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC
FOUR EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (48.0 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230600UTC 26.6N 124.4E
MOVEMENT ENE 6KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231800UTC 27.2N 125.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 240600UTC 28.1N 126.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 241800UTC 28.9N 126.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 250600UTC 29.9N 125.8E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.3N 125.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 270600UTC 38.9N 125.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 280600UTC 43.8N 126.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 26.6N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 28.3N 126.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 250600UTC 30.6N 125.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 260600UTC 34.6N 124.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 270600UTC 41.9N 124.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 280600UTC 49.7N 126.2E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 26.6N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 28.3N 126.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 250600UTC 30.6N 125.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 260600UTC 34.6N 124.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 26.6N 124.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 27.4N 125.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 28.3N 126.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 30.6N 125.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 34.6N 124.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 41.9N 124.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 49.7N 126.2E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 230445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (32.7 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC
THREE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (39.4 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC
FOUR SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (46.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 26.5N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 27.9N 125.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 250000UTC 29.2N 125.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 260000UTC 32.3N 125.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 270000UTC 39.0N 125.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 280000UTC 46.5N 125.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 26.5N 124.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 27.2N 125.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 27.9N 125.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 26.5N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 27.9N 125.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 250000UTC 29.2N 125.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 260000UTC 32.3N 125.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200823025531
2020082300 09W BAVI 007 01 010 05 SATL 030
T000 263N 1238E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T012 271N 1249E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T024 278N 1256E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 286N 1258E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 298N 1254E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 324N 1249E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 387N 1251E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T120 461N 1259E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 26.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.8N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 38.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 124.1E.
23AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082300 263N1238E 55
0920082300 263N1238E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 26.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 27.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.8N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 38.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 46.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 124.1E.
23AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 26.3N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 230145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (26.4 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (32.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC
THREE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (38.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC
FOUR FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (45.4 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230000UTC 26.4N 123.9E
MOVEMENT NE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231200UTC 27.0N 124.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 240000UTC 27.6N 125.9E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 241200UTC 28.3N 126.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 250000UTC 29.2N 126.0E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 260000UTC 32.1N 125.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 270000UTC 37.1N 125.4E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 280000UTC 42.6N 126.6E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 26.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 27.7N 126.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 250000UTC 29.2N 125.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 260000UTC 32.3N 125.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 270000UTC 39.0N 125.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 280000UTC 46.5N 125.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 26.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 27.7N 126.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 250000UTC 29.2N 125.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 260000UTC 32.3N 125.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 26.3N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 26.9N 125.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 27.7N 126.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 29.2N 125.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 32.3N 125.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 39.0N 125.3E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 46.5N 125.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 222245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 222100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (29.2 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (31.5 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
THREE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (37.0 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC
FOUR THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (43.9 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 26.0N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 27.5N 125.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 241800UTC 28.7N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 251800UTC 31.1N 125.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 261800UTC 36.4N 125.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 271800UTC 44.2N 126.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 26.0N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 27.5N 125.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 241800UTC 28.7N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 251800UTC 31.1N 125.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 26.0N 123.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 26.7N 125.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 27.5N 125.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200822201217
2020082218 09W BAVI 006 01 350 05 SATL 045
T000 258N 1237E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T012 266N 1245E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T024 273N 1255E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 280N 1261E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 289N 1260E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 312N 1254E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 366N 1251E 065 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 439N 1248E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 25.8N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.2N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 36.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 43.9N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 123.9E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50
0920082218 258N1237E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 25.8N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.3N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.9N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.2N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 36.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 43.9N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 123.9E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 123.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 221945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 221800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (125.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
THREE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (36.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC
FOUR THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (43.3 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221800UTC 25.8N 123.5E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230600UTC 26.5N 124.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 231800UTC 27.2N 125.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 240600UTC 28.0N 126.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 241800UTC 28.8N 126.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 251800UTC 30.8N 126.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 261800UTC 35.0N 126.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 271800UTC 41.4N 126.8E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 51KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 25.6N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 27.3N 125.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241800UTC 28.7N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 251800UTC 31.1N 125.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 261800UTC 36.4N 125.8E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 271800UTC 44.2N 126.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 25.6N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 27.3N 125.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241800UTC 28.7N 126.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 251800UTC 31.1N 125.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 25.6N 123.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 26.5N 124.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 27.3N 125.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 28.7N 126.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.1N 125.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 36.4N 125.8E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 44.2N 126.5E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 221645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 221500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231500 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (27.0 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (125.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (126.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
FOUR ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (41.0 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (126.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 25.6N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 26.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 241200UTC 28.2N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 251200UTC 29.9N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 261200UTC 33.4N 126.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 271200UTC 40.8N 126.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 25.6N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 26.4N 124.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 26.9N 125.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 25.6N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 26.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 241200UTC 28.2N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 251200UTC 29.9N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200822141609
2020082212 09W BAVI 005 01 030 11 SATL RADR 020
T000 253N 1238E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 010 NW QD
T012 263N 1245E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 269N 1255E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 276N 1264E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 283N 1267E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 304N 1265E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 344N 1270E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 417N 1277E 050 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 25.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.6N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.3N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 41.7N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 124.0E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
228 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
0920082212 253N1238E 50
0920082212 253N1238E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 25.3N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.3N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.6N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.3N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.4N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 41.7N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 124.0E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
228 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 25.4N, 123.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP
AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOWER
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 221345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 221200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (26.9 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC
FOUR ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (40.0 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (126.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221200UTC 25.4N 123.7E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 230000UTC 26.2N 124.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 231200UTC 26.8N 125.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 240000UTC 27.6N 125.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 241200UTC 28.5N 125.9E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 251200UTC 30.2N 126.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 261200UTC 33.4N 126.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
120HR
POSITION 271200UTC 40.3N 126.7E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 51KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 25.4N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 26.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 241200UTC 28.2N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 251200UTC 29.9N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 261200UTC 33.4N 126.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 271200UTC 40.8N 126.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 25.4N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 26.9N 125.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 241200UTC 28.2N 126.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 251200UTC 29.9N 125.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 990 HPA
AT 25.4N 123.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 26.4N 124.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 26.9N 125.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 28.2N 126.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 29.9N 125.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.4N 126.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 40.8N 126.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 24.9N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM SOUTHEAST 20NM NORTHWEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 26.8N 125.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 240600UTC 27.6N 126.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 250600UTC 29.1N 125.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 260600UTC 31.9N 126.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 270600UTC 39.5N 127.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 24.9N 123.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 26.2N 124.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 26.8N 125.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 24.9N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM SOUTHEAST 20NM NORTHWEST
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 26.8N 125.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 240600UTC 27.6N 126.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 250600UTC 29.1N 125.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200822081801
2020082206 09W BAVI 004 01 030 09 SATL 040
T000 243N 1232E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T012 256N 1237E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 264N 1245E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 270N 1256E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 278N 1264E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 294N 1264E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 322N 1267E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 392N 1279E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 24.3N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.2N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 39.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 123.3E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
282 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 40
0920082206 243N1232E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 24.3N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.2N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 39.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 123.3E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
282 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 24.3N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 220745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 220600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC
TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (126.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (126.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (31.8 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC
THREE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (38.2 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (127.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220600UTC 24.3N 123.3E
MOVEMENT NE 11KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 221800UTC 25.2N 124.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 230600UTC 26.2N 124.9E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 231800UTC 27.1N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 240600UTC 28.1N 126.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 250600UTC 30.1N 127.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 260600UTC 33.3N 127.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 270600UTC 38.0N 128.0E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 24.3N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 26.4N 124.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 240600UTC 27.6N 126.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 250600UTC 29.1N 125.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 260600UTC 31.9N 126.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 270600UTC 39.5N 127.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 24.3N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 26.4N 124.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 240600UTC 27.6N 126.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 250600UTC 29.1N 125.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) 994 HPA
AT 24.3N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 25.7N 123.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 26.4N 124.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 27.6N 126.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 29.1N 125.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 31.9N 126.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 39.5N 127.2E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 220445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 220300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2008) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE
TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC
TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (27.6 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (126.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
TWO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (29.5 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (32.1 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 95 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC
THREE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (36.7 N)
ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (127.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 23.9N 122.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 26.4N 124.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 240000UTC 27.6N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 250000UTC 29.1N 126.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 260000UTC 31.6N 126.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 270000UTC 37.0N 128.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2008 BAVI (2008)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 23.9N 122.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 26.4N 124.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 240000UTC 27.6N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 250000UTC 29.1N 126.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200822023006
2020082200 09W BAVI 003 01 030 06 SATL RADR 045
T000 235N 1227E 035 R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 252N 1231E 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 262N 1238E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T036 268N 1249E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T048 275N 1260E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 293N 1265E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 318N 1267E 105 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 379N 1278E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.8N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.5N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 31.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 37.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 122.8E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKIN
AWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1224E 25
0920082200 235N1227E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 23.5N 122.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.5N 122.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 25.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 26.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.8N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.5N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 31.8N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 37.9N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 122.8E.
22AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2008 BAVI (2008)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 22.3N, 123.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(BAVI) STATUS. TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 23.6N, 122.6E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 220000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2008 BAVI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 220000UTC 23.5N 122.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 221200UTC 24.8N 122.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 230000UTC 26.2N 124.0E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 231200UTC 27.0N 125.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 240000UTC 27.8N 126.2E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 250000UTC 29.5N 126.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 260000UTC 32.3N 127.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 270000UTC 36.1N 127.8E WITHIN 255NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 23.6N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 26.5N 123.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 240000UTC 27.6N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 250000UTC 29.1N 126.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 260000UTC 31.6N 126.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 270000UTC 37.0N 128.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 23.6N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 26.5N 123.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 240000UTC 27.6N 126.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 250000UTC 29.1N 126.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2008 BAVI (2008) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 23.6N 122.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 25.3N 123.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 26.5N 123.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 27.6N 126.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 29.1N 126.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 31.6N 126.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 37.0N 128.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200821205840
2020082118 09W NINE 002 01 005 10 SATL RADR 050
T000 230N 1223E 025
T012 247N 1226E 030
T024 258N 1231E 040 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 265N 1241E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T048 273N 1252E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 291N 1263E 100 R064 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 318N 1265E 105 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 372N 1274E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.8N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.5N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.1N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 122.4E.
21AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKIN
AWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
0920082118 230N1223E 25

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 24.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 25.8N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 26.5N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 27.3N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.1N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.2N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 122.4E.
21AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEALR HARBOR HI/202151ZAUG2020//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.6N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.5N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 122.3E.
21AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
408 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 20220).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 200821143247
2020082112 09W NINE 001 01 360 10 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 220N 1222E 025
T012 234N 1225E 030
T024 246N 1230E 040 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 257N 1238E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 265N 1248E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 281N 1265E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 306N 1267E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 341N 1274E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 24.6N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 25.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.5N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.1N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.6N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 122.3E.
21AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
408 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z.//
0920082000 165N1235E 15
0920082006 168N1230E 15
0920082012 175N1227E 15
0920082018 189N1226E 15
0920082100 200N1223E 20
0920082106 210N1222E 20
0920082112 220N1222E 25
NNNN

>