Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RENE-20
in Cape Verde

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 142032
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Rene Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Visible satellite imagery during the past few hours shows that Rene
has opened into a trough of low pressure and is no longer a tropical
cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory. The remnants of Rene
will likely move generally southwestward for the next day or two
while the associated winds slowly subside. Although the trough may
continue to produce occasional showers and thunderstorms, no
redevelopment of the system is expected.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 26.9N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF RENE
12H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 142031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rene Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...RENE DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 49.3W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Rene were located near
latitude 26.9 North, longitude 49.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general
motion will likely continue for another day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Winds associated with the remnants of Rene should gradually subside
during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 142031
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 49.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 49.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 49.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 141451
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Deep convection continues to pulse over the eastern portion of
Rene's circulation, enough to maintain the system's status as a
tropical cyclone. However, recent visible statellite imagery
suggest that the circulation may not be as well defined as it was
yesterday. Satellite classifications support an initial
wind speed of 25 kt. Strong west-northwesterly shear and dry air
are expected to cause the depression to weaken and degenerate into
a remnant low within the next 12-24 hours. The global models show
the low-level circulation dissipating within 2 to 3 days and so
does the official forecast.

Rene has moved very little overnight but a west-southwestward or
southwestward motion within the low-level steering flow should
begin soon. That general motion is expected to continue until
dissipation in a day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 141450
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...RENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 48.3W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. The
depression is stationary. A motion toward the west-southwest or
southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low
tonight, and dissipate by late Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 141450
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 48.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 140849
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Rene continues to produce just enough deep convection to keep it
from degenerating to a remnant low. However, it is expected to
degenerate later today due to the ongoing impact of strong
west-northwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment. The
initial intensity and the intensity forecast, which call for
dissipation by 60 h, are unchanged from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/3. The shallow
cyclone should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the
low-level flow by 12-24 hours and continue on that general motion
until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 140849
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...RENE JUST HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 48.3W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 48.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin
later today and continue through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low
on later today, and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 140849
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 48.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 140230
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene continues to produced puffs of deep convection that are
continually being sheared away by nearly 30 kt of westerly
shear. These brief convective bursts have not been sufficiently
organized to warrant a Dvorak classification for about 12 hours, so
if the convective organization does not increase soon, Rene could
become a remnant low tonight. Continued shear and a very dry
mid-level environment should result in Rene's remnants dissipating
by 60 hours, if not sooner.

Rene's forward speed has slowed since the last advisory, with a
westward drift of 270/02 the current estimate. The shallow cyclone
should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the
low-level flow by 24 hours and continue on that general motion until
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted south of the
previous one toward the new multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0000Z 26.9N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 26.2N 50.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 140230
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 47.9W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 47.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
motion is forecast to continue tonight. A faster motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin Monday and
continue through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low
on Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 140230
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.9W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.9W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.2N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 132041
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene continues to produce occasional small bursts of deep
convection, most recently to the north of its surface center. Both
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications indicated that convection at
18Z was insufficient to classify the system, an indication that the
few pop up thunderstorms are not sufficiently organized to classify
the system as a tropical cyclone. That said, convection has
increased a little since that time and there is a possibility that
deep convection could increase further this evening. While Rene is
still a tropical depression for the moment, if its convection does
not persist, it could become a remnant low as soon as tonight.

Only very small changes were made to the NHC track and intensity
forecasts. Rene's forward speed has continued to slow down since
this morning. The shallow cyclone should make a westward and then
southwestward turn during the next day or two, steered by a building
low-level ridge to the north. Regardless of its exact status, Rene
will probably continue to produce only a few small disorganized
bursts of convection for the next few days while its circulation
gradually spins down. Surrounding dry air and large-scale subsidence
will likely prevent the redevelopment of more signifcant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Most of the dynamical guidance indicates that
Rene will open into a trough of low pressure within about 72 h, if
not sooner and the NHC forecast shows likewise.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 132040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RENE STILL PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND THERE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 47.6W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 47.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h). Rene is forecast to begin moving slowly westward
and then southwestward during the next two or three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated. Rene is forecast to become a
remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 132040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 47.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 131502
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Sporadic small areas of convection continue to fire off around the
circulation of Rene, only to dissipate shortly thereafter. A recent
ASCAT overpass showed an area of 20 to 25 kt winds in the eastern
semicircle. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 25 kt. The
dry environment surrounding Rene will only get drier over the next
couple of days. That, along with increasing subsidence over the
cyclone should eventually cause Rene to become a remnant low. There
is no change to the previous forecast intensity or timing of the
system becoming a remnant low, which is consistent with the global
models.

Rene is beginning to slow down as a ridge starts to build to the
north and northwest of the cyclone. This slowing trend should
continue through tonight. Late Monday through Tuesday, a turn to the
west then southwest should occur as whatever remains of the system
becomes steered by the larger circulation of Tropical Depression
Twenty to its southwest. There is little change to the previous
track forecast, and the latest NHC forecast lies near the various
multi-model track consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.8N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 27.6N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.3N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0000Z 26.1N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 131501
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED RENE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 47.6W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 47.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected by tonight. By late Monday
through Tuesday, the system is forecast to move southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rene should slowly weaken over the next couple of days and
is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 131501
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 47.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 47.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 47.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 48.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.6N 48.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.3N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 47.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 130858
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time,
with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by
increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear. The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite
intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. The
strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating
to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global
models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a
trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous forecast.

The initial motion is 325/12. A blocking ridge of high pressure is
forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or
two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward.
After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or
its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the
circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast. There is
little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track
from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 26.2N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 130858
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 47.1W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 47.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected later today, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday,
the system is forecast to move west-southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and
is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 130858
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 47.1W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 47.1W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 46.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 47.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 130400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 113.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2020 0 16.4N 113.3W 1001 26
1200UTC 13.09.2020 12 17.3N 114.6W 1000 30
0000UTC 14.09.2020 24 18.0N 117.0W 999 28
1200UTC 14.09.2020 36 18.1N 118.6W 999 31
0000UTC 15.09.2020 48 18.5N 120.0W 997 40
1200UTC 15.09.2020 60 19.5N 121.1W 997 39
0000UTC 16.09.2020 72 20.8N 122.3W 996 43
1200UTC 16.09.2020 84 22.3N 123.8W 998 41
0000UTC 17.09.2020 96 23.6N 124.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 17.09.2020 108 24.5N 126.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 18.09.2020 120 25.0N 126.8W 1008 22
1200UTC 18.09.2020 132 24.8N 127.5W 1010 19
0000UTC 19.09.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 25.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2020 0 17.2N 25.1W 1010 25
1200UTC 13.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 59.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2020 0 28.7N 59.1W 980 52
1200UTC 13.09.2020 12 29.6N 61.7W 976 56
0000UTC 14.09.2020 24 30.8N 64.0W 971 71
1200UTC 14.09.2020 36 32.8N 65.2W 958 73
0000UTC 15.09.2020 48 35.0N 64.2W 943 83
1200UTC 15.09.2020 60 37.2N 60.5W 942 85
0000UTC 16.09.2020 72 39.4N 55.3W 941 82
1200UTC 16.09.2020 84 41.6N 49.2W 957 80
0000UTC 17.09.2020 96 43.6N 43.1W 971 65
1200UTC 17.09.2020 108 45.7N 38.2W 971 58
0000UTC 18.09.2020 120 45.0N 36.4W 978 44
1200UTC 18.09.2020 132 43.9N 36.4W 988 44
0000UTC 19.09.2020 144 42.2N 37.6W 995 41

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 34.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2020 0 12.3N 34.2W 1008 23
1200UTC 13.09.2020 12 12.3N 36.1W 1008 28
0000UTC 14.09.2020 24 13.3N 38.3W 1008 27
1200UTC 14.09.2020 36 13.3N 41.7W 1008 30
0000UTC 15.09.2020 48 13.1N 44.1W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.09.2020 60 13.6N 46.0W 1002 37
0000UTC 16.09.2020 72 14.5N 47.4W 998 43
1200UTC 16.09.2020 84 15.3N 48.5W 993 46
0000UTC 17.09.2020 96 17.2N 49.7W 985 59
1200UTC 17.09.2020 108 18.7N 50.9W 971 68
0000UTC 18.09.2020 120 20.3N 52.1W 957 74
1200UTC 18.09.2020 132 21.6N 53.4W 954 71
0000UTC 19.09.2020 144 22.7N 54.4W 951 80

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2020 0 26.0N 82.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 13.09.2020 12 27.4N 84.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 14.09.2020 24 27.8N 86.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 14.09.2020 36 28.3N 88.1W 1003 34
0000UTC 15.09.2020 48 28.4N 89.3W 999 39
1200UTC 15.09.2020 60 29.2N 89.8W 996 51
0000UTC 16.09.2020 72 30.1N 89.5W 989 45
1200UTC 16.09.2020 84 31.0N 89.3W 999 33
0000UTC 17.09.2020 96 31.6N 88.8W 1003 23
1200UTC 17.09.2020 108 31.6N 88.3W 1007 22
0000UTC 18.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 46.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2020 0 24.9N 46.0W 1011 26
1200UTC 13.09.2020 12 26.4N 47.6W 1014 21
0000UTC 14.09.2020 24 27.0N 48.5W 1016 19
1200UTC 14.09.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 18.3N 28.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 36 18.3N 28.2W 1011 32
0000UTC 15.09.2020 48 20.6N 28.6W 1010 33
1200UTC 15.09.2020 60 21.9N 30.2W 1010 32
0000UTC 16.09.2020 72 22.5N 31.9W 1011 31
1200UTC 16.09.2020 84 23.1N 33.2W 1012 27
0000UTC 17.09.2020 96 23.6N 35.4W 1013 24
1200UTC 17.09.2020 108 23.6N 37.0W 1013 21
0000UTC 18.09.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.0N 147.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 48 11.0N 147.9W 1008 25
1200UTC 15.09.2020 60 10.5N 149.7W 1008 27
0000UTC 16.09.2020 72 10.3N 151.2W 1007 25
1200UTC 16.09.2020 84 10.3N 153.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2020 96 10.8N 155.4W 1006 34
1200UTC 17.09.2020 108 11.4N 157.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 18.09.2020 120 12.3N 159.6W 1005 36
1200UTC 18.09.2020 132 12.8N 161.7W 1007 34
0000UTC 19.09.2020 144 13.4N 164.3W 1008 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130359

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 130359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 113.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2020 16.4N 113.3W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2020 17.3N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 18.0N 117.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 18.1N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.5N 120.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 19.5N 121.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 20.8N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 22.3N 123.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 23.6N 124.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 24.5N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 25.0N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 24.8N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 25.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2020 17.2N 25.1W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 59.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2020 28.7N 59.1W MODERATE
12UTC 13.09.2020 29.6N 61.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2020 30.8N 64.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2020 32.8N 65.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2020 35.0N 64.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 37.2N 60.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 39.4N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 41.6N 49.2W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 43.6N 43.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 45.7N 38.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 45.0N 36.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 43.9N 36.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2020 42.2N 37.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 34.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2020 12.3N 34.2W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2020 12.3N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 13.3N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 13.3N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 13.1N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 13.6N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 14.5N 47.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2020 15.3N 48.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 17.2N 49.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 18.7N 50.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2020 20.3N 52.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 21.6N 53.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 22.7N 54.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2020 26.0N 82.5W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2020 27.4N 84.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 27.8N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 28.3N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 28.4N 89.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 29.2N 89.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 30.1N 89.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2020 31.0N 89.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 31.6N 88.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 31.6N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 46.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2020 24.9N 46.0W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2020 26.4N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 27.0N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 18.3N 28.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 18.3N 28.2W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2020 20.6N 28.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 21.9N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 22.5N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 23.1N 33.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 23.6N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 23.6N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.0N 147.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2020 11.0N 147.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2020 10.5N 149.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 10.3N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 10.3N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 10.8N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 11.4N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 12.3N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 12.8N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 13.4N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130359

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 130234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Satellite images indicate that a band of convection has recently
increased on the western side of the circulation, otherwise the
center remains mostly exposed. The initial wind speed is reduced to
25 kt based on scatterometer data. The small cyclone is likely to
gradually spin down due to persistent moderate shear and a fairly
dry environment. The hostile conditions are not likely to change
too much, so Rene is forecast to lose all convection in a day or two
and become a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower
than the previous one due to the weaker initial intensity and
follows the latest global model consensus.

The depression is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. A blocking
ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or
Rene, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward and
west-southwestward early next week. The guidance is similar to the
previous package, and no significant track changes were made to the
official NHC forecast. The forecast still might hold onto the
circulation too long, and the remnant low could dissipate into a
trough of low pressure sooner than indicated below.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 130233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE WEAKENS AND IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 46.4W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 46.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday,
the system is forecast to move west-southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next few days and
is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 130233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 46.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 122034
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the
northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops
are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder
development. Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB
and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt
initial intensity. The depression is expected to remain within an
area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear
on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual
weakening over the next couple of days. While the shear is
forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates
mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest
weakening is likely to continue. The global models also weaken the
system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days.
The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now
calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day
5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner.

Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of
high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on
Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress
of the cyclone. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and
build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward
in the low-level steering flow early next week. The overall
guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new
NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 24.3N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 122033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 45.6W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
slower northwestward motion is expected by Sunday, and a slow
westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday,
the system is forecast to turn west-southwestward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is possible over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 122032
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 45.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 121458
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The deep convection associated with Rene has gradually decreased
over the past several hours, with only a few sporadic patches
remaining. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 28 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, while the latest Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB suggest the system is 30 kt. Therefore the initial
intensity is being lowered to 30 kt. The depression is forecast to
battle dry air for the next several days, with SHIPS guidance
indicating that the mid-level relative humidity will decrease to
under 40 percent in a few days. Also, it appears that there will be
increasing subsidence over the system starting in a couple of days
due to a ridge building to the northwest of the cyclone. Neither of
these conditions bode well for maintaining organized deep
convection. And, with it anticipated that the depression will
struggle to maintain convection it is expected to slowly spin down
over the next several days. The official forecast shows Rene
degenerating into a remnant low in 5 days, but that timing is low
confidence, as the system may generate just enough convection over
warm waters to continue to be classified as a tropical cyclone
longer than that. The alternative scenario is that the system could
become a remnant low or open into a trough even sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one mainly
due to the decrease in initial intensity, and is in good agreement
with the various intensity consensus values.

Rene continues to move northwestward, now at 11 kt. A northwestward
motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic should continue into tonight. On Sunday, Rene is
forecast to slow down as the ridge builds to the northwest and north
of the cyclone. By Tuesday, Rene is expected to turn westward and
then west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of the
building ridge. The NHC track forecast is very little changed from
the previous one, and is near the middle of the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 23.2N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 121457
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 44.4W
ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene
was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 44.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and
this general motion is forecast to continue through tonight. A
slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and
Monday. A turn to the west-southwest is expected to occur by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow weakening is possible over the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 121457
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 44.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 44.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.5N 45.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 47.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 48.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 49.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 25.0N 52.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 120844
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some
organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating
bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent
over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern
portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity
of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this
morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm.
Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has
struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the
shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to
prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an
area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is
shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global
models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and
both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate
into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast
continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the
forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely
that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day
period.

Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt.
A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to
24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge
of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone.
Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then
southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track
guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant
changes to the official forecaster were required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 22.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 120843
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 43.5W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 43.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A slower northwest to
north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the weekend, but some
weakening is predicted to occur early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 120843
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 120241
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Deep convection has persisted near the center of Rene since this
afternoon and a couple of earlier microwave overpasses suggest that
there has been an increase in banding over the southwestern portion
of the circulation. Despite what appears to be an increase in
organization, recent ASCAT data indicated that this has not
translated into an increase in intensity. The scatterometer data
still supports an initial wind speed of 35 kt. Environmental
conditions are forecast to generally be conducive for some
strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, however with Rene
continuing to struggle to intensify the NHC wind speed prediction
has again been reduced during the that time. By 36-48 hours, Rene
is expected to move beneath an area of strong upper-level
west-northwesterly flow, and this increase in shear is expected to
cause weakening. The ECMWF and GFS models significantly weaken
Rene after 72 hours, with the ECMWF showing dissipation before the
end of the forecast period. For now, the official forecast calls
for Rene to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4, but it is
possible that the system will degenerate into a trough of low
pressure before day 5.

Rene is moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The cyclone should
turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western portion of
a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. In a couple of days, a
mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene,
which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn westward, and
then west-southwestward later in the forecast period. The track
guidance is in fairly good agreement and the various consensus aids
remained close to the previous official forecast. Therefore, the
new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 21.4N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 120241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 42.4W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 42.4 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest followed by a slower north-northwest motion is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 120240
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 42.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 42.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 41.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 42.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 112051
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the
circulation and is re-forming near the center. Based on a blend of
subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the
current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. Hopefully we will get
a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better
intensity estimate. Some strengthening is anticipated during the
next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the
intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter.
The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus.

Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn
to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days. In
the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the
north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn
toward the west and west-southwest. The new official track
forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one
in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 112051
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 112050
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 41.1W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 41.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 25.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2020 0 11.6N 25.3W 1008 24
0000UTC 12.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 79.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2020 0 25.1N 79.0W 1012 20
0000UTC 12.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 116.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2020 0 18.1N 116.0W 1008 18
0000UTC 12.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2020 0 14.3N 106.0W 1008 19
0000UTC 12.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 52.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2020 0 23.4N 52.1W 996 43
0000UTC 12.09.2020 12 25.2N 54.0W 990 46
1200UTC 12.09.2020 24 27.2N 56.1W 979 55
0000UTC 13.09.2020 36 28.8N 58.2W 960 68
1200UTC 13.09.2020 48 30.0N 60.3W 959 73
0000UTC 14.09.2020 60 31.3N 63.0W 961 74
1200UTC 14.09.2020 72 32.8N 64.7W 956 75
0000UTC 15.09.2020 84 34.5N 64.0W 950 78
1200UTC 15.09.2020 96 36.3N 60.7W 945 81
0000UTC 16.09.2020 108 38.0N 56.1W 946 85
1200UTC 16.09.2020 120 39.0N 51.8W 952 82
0000UTC 17.09.2020 132 40.0N 48.3W 960 73
1200UTC 17.09.2020 144 40.6N 45.8W 965 67

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 39.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2020 0 20.0N 39.5W 1005 30
0000UTC 12.09.2020 12 21.1N 41.5W 1007 31
1200UTC 12.09.2020 24 22.5N 43.8W 1008 27
0000UTC 13.09.2020 36 24.0N 45.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 13.09.2020 48 25.5N 46.9W 1011 27
0000UTC 14.09.2020 60 26.2N 47.5W 1014 27
1200UTC 14.09.2020 72 26.2N 48.2W 1015 23
0000UTC 15.09.2020 84 25.5N 49.2W 1015 22
1200UTC 15.09.2020 96 24.7N 50.6W 1014 22
0000UTC 16.09.2020 108 23.6N 52.1W 1013 22
1200UTC 16.09.2020 120 22.3N 54.2W 1012 20
0000UTC 17.09.2020 132 21.5N 56.3W 1012 22
1200UTC 17.09.2020 144 20.3N 58.6W 1012 19

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.3N 143.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2020 60 12.4N 144.4W 1007 26
1200UTC 14.09.2020 72 11.7N 146.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 15.09.2020 84 10.7N 147.6W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.09.2020 96 10.0N 148.6W 1006 28
0000UTC 16.09.2020 108 10.2N 149.3W 1005 28
1200UTC 16.09.2020 120 10.9N 150.7W 1005 31
0000UTC 17.09.2020 132 11.9N 151.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 17.09.2020 144 13.1N 152.1W 1002 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 28.2N 87.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 72 28.3N 88.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 15.09.2020 84 29.0N 89.3W 1006 33
1200UTC 15.09.2020 96 29.9N 89.8W 1005 34
0000UTC 16.09.2020 108 30.8N 89.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 16.09.2020 120 31.9N 90.3W 1007 21
0000UTC 17.09.2020 132 33.2N 90.2W 1006 15
1200UTC 17.09.2020 144 34.8N 89.3W 1007 15

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.6N 32.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 72 17.6N 32.8W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.09.2020 84 21.0N 33.8W 1006 39
1200UTC 15.09.2020 96 23.0N 34.7W 1005 41
0000UTC 16.09.2020 108 24.7N 35.9W 1005 43
1200UTC 16.09.2020 120 27.3N 37.9W 1005 43
0000UTC 17.09.2020 132 30.0N 39.8W 1003 37
1200UTC 17.09.2020 144 32.0N 41.0W 1000 48


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 111559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 25.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2020 11.6N 25.3W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 79.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2020 25.1N 79.0W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 116.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2020 18.1N 116.0W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2020 14.3N 106.0W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 52.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2020 23.4N 52.1W MODERATE
00UTC 12.09.2020 25.2N 54.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2020 27.2N 56.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2020 28.8N 58.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2020 30.0N 60.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 31.3N 63.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 32.8N 64.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2020 34.5N 64.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 36.3N 60.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 38.0N 56.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 39.0N 51.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 40.0N 48.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 40.6N 45.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 39.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2020 20.0N 39.5W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2020 21.1N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 22.5N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 24.0N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 25.5N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 26.2N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 26.2N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 25.5N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 24.7N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 23.6N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 22.3N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 21.5N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 20.3N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.3N 143.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2020 12.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 11.7N 146.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 10.7N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 10.0N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 10.2N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 10.9N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 11.9N 151.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 13.1N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 28.2N 87.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 28.3N 88.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 29.0N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 29.9N 89.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 30.8N 89.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 31.9N 90.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 33.2N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 34.8N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.6N 32.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.6N 32.8W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2020 21.0N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 23.0N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 24.7N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 27.3N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 30.0N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 32.0N 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111559

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 111444
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past
several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have
developed over the western part of the circulation. The cause of
the system's decline is not clear. One negative environmental
factor could be dry air, since the SHIPS output based on the GFS
model shows mid-level relative humidities of 50-55 percent. Using a
blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along
with objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS gives a rather uncertain
advisory intensity of 35 kt. Since the cyclone should remain over
waters of 26.5 deg C or warmer and the shear is not expected to
increase much during the next day or two, some re-intensification is
expected. Based on the current state of Rene, the official
intensity forecast is revised downward to show less strengthening
through 48 hr compared to the previous predictions. By the latter
part of the forecast period, increasing northwesterly shear should
result in weakening. The NHC forecast is above most of the
intensity guidance.

The latest center fixes give a slightly faster west-northwestward
motion of 290/11 kt. Rene should continue to move around the
western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone for the next couple of
days. Then, a high pressure area building to the north and
northwest of the cyclone should induce a slowing of the forward
speed and a turn toward the left. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and closely aligned with the NOAA
corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 20.3N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 21.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 24.3N 45.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 25.9N 46.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 27.0N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 27.3N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 26.8N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 26.8N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 111443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 39.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 39.9 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn
toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the
north-northwest with decreasing forward speed on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, but weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 111443
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 39.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 39.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 39.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.2N 41.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.3N 45.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.9N 46.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 46.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 26.8N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 26.8N 51.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 110842
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

An AMSR2-GM1 microwave pass revealed that Rene's surface center is
farther separated from the shrinking deep convection. The 0000 UTC
FV3 and ECMWF model soundings indicate that east-southeasterly
30-35 kt shear near 300 mb is temporarily undercutting the
diffluent southerly flow aloft. The initial intensity is held at
40 kt and is based on the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and an ADT estimates yielding 39 kt.

The shear is expected to relax during the next 36 to 48 hours which
should allow for gradual intensification. By mid-period, Rene is
forecast to move into an area of increasing west-northwesterly
shear, which should induce a weakening trend. It's worth noting
that the ECMWF and the FV3 Decay SHIPS show very little
strengthening through the period and it appears to be due to
the cyclone moving into an even more inhibiting thermodynamic
environment, in addition to the aforementioned shear. In fact, the
relative humidity in the mid portions of the atmospheric is less
than 49 percent beyond day 3. The NHC forecast sides with the
various intensity consensus models and is above the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

Rene continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt within the
southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending
from western Africa to the eastern Atlantic. A turn toward the
northwest on Saturday, followed by a north-northwestward and
northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
Sunday and Sunday night. Early next week, a subtropical ridge is
forecast to build to the northwest of Rene, in response to Tropical
Storm Paulette moving northeastward over the northern central
Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause the
cyclone to begin a southwestward to west-southwestward drift
through the end of the period. The official track forecast is
close to the previous advisory through day 4, then it's nudged a
little south to conform with the HCCA and TVCA multi-model aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 19.7N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.4N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.6N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 23.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 25.0N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 26.6N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.4N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 26.9N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 26.1N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 110841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...RENE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 38.5W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 38.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday night,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A
north-northwestward and northward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the couple of days.
Afterward, weakening is expected to begin by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 110841
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.6N 42.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 44.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 45.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 46.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 46.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.9N 46.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 26.1N 48.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 38.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 110244
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Microwave satellite images from late this afternoon and evening
shows that the center of Rene is located slightly northeast of the
main convective mass. This appears to be due to some easterly flow
that is undercutting the outflow layer. Dvorak CI numbers from
both SAB and TAFB remain 3.0 (45 kt) but the SAB T-number has
decreased slightly, and a recent ASCAT overpass suggests that the
winds are not as strong as previously estimated. The ASCAT data
revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity has been
adjusted to 40 kt, which could be a little generous. The
upper-level wind pattern is expected to become favorable for
strengthening while the cyclone moves over marginally warm sea
surface temperatures during the next day or two. This should allow
for some modest strengthening during that time, but the statistical
guidance is not as bullish as before. Therefore the intensity
forecast has been lowered slightly, and if strengthening does not
occur soon additional downward adjustments to the intensity
prediction may be needed. By 60 h, Rene is forecast to move into
an area of strong west-northwesterly shear, which is expected to
weaken the cyclone during the latter portion of the forecast
period.

Rene continues moving west-northwestward with a motion of 290/10
kt. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic and Rene is forecast to
turn northwestward and then north-northwestward over the next few
days. Later in the period, a ridge is forecast to build to the
northwest of the tropical cyclone and Rene's forward motion is
expected to slow considerably early next week. There is a fair
amount of model spread by 96 and 120 h, with some of the global
models taking Rene more northeastward during that time. The NHC
forecast continues to lie close to the various consensus aids, and
indicates a fairly slow forward speed on days 3-5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 19.3N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 19.8N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 20.7N 41.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 25.2N 46.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 26.4N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 27.3N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 27.5N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 110243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 37.6W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 37.6 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed
by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. A northwestward motion
at slower forward speed is forecast Saturday night and Sunday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
forecast during the couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 110243
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 37.6W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 37.6W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.8N 39.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 41.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 43.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.7N 44.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.2N 46.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N 46.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.3N 47.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 27.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 102031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

It appeared that the storm had become better organized this
morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least
temporarily interrupted. Rene's central features have become
rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat.
It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow
that is undercutting the outflow layer. There is also an apparent
dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern
portions of the circulation at this time. Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the
current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory.
Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more
conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane
by the weekend. The official intensity forecast is a little below
the latest model consensus.

Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of
near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and
then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around
the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the
forecast period, A mid-level high is predicted to build to the
northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone's forward
progress and cause it to turn to the left. At the present time, it
appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette,
which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a
significant binary interaction between the two storms. The
official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 18.9N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 102031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 36.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed
by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 102030
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 36.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 36.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 36.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 101438
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with
the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud
mass. The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic
outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity. Since
the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48
hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time,
and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday. This is in
reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus,
IVCN. In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly
shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to
weakening.

Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at
about 285/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western
periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a
north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period,
a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a
significant slowing of the forward speed. The official track
forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better
agreement with the latest model consensus predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.6N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 101437
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 35.8W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 35.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the
next couple of days, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 101437
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 35.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 35.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100838
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Several recent microwave overpasses indicate that Rene continues to
be affected by easterly shear, with the low-level center located
near the eastern edge of the ongoing bursting convection. Various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the
35-45 kt range and have changed little since the last advisory.
Based on that, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is no
change in the overall track forecast philosophy. Rene should move
generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, followed
by a turn toward the northwest into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge partly caused by Tropical Storm Paulette. Late in the
forecast period, the track forecast becomes more problematic due to
uncertainties in how much ridging will build north of Rene and how
close it will be to the larger Paulette. The track guidance during
this time shows increasing spread and some westward shift from the
previous advisory. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 72 h, then it lies to the left of the
previous track at 96 and 120 h. However, at these times, it lies
to the right of the various consensus models.

The shear should gradually diminish during the next 48-60 h, and
this should allow Rene to strengthen to or near hurricane strength.
After that time, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to
cause gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasing
sea surface temperatures. The new official intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast. It lies near the various
intensity consensus models through 72 h, but is weaker than those
models at 96 and 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100838
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...RENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 34.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 34.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the northwest.


Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100838
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 34.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 34.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 100234
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Rene remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with modest
mid-/upper-level easterly vertical wind shear of 12-15 kt
undercutting the otherwise favorable outflow layer. The combination
of the shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air have caused the
convective pattern to continue to fluctuate since the previous
advisory. Although a recent burst of deep convection has again
pulsed near and to he west of the center, the intensity is being
maintained at 35 kt based on a 09/2305Z ASCAT-A overpass indicating
barely 34 kt winds in the northwest quadrant. The 34-kt wind radius
was also expanded in that quadrant based on the ASCAT wind data.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward motion or 285/11 kt.
Under the influence of a mid-level ridge, Rene is expected to
continue moving west-northward over the eastern Atlantic for the
next few days. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around
40W-45W longitude, which will be partly induced by Tropical Storm
Paulette's circulation, causing Rene to slow down and turn toward
the northwest and then north-northwest on 3-4 days. By day 5, Rene's
northward motion is forecast to be blocked significantly by a
building ridge to the north of the cyclone as TS Paulette moves
farther away. It is possible that Rene could stall or even make a
small looping motion if the storm gets trapped within the much
larger ridge. The new NHC forecast is to the left or south of the
previous advisory track, but not as far left as the consensus models
or the preponderance of the remaining guidance.

Rene's upper-level outflow is forecast to remain intact for the
next 60 h or so, which would should allow for at least gradual
strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast by both the
GFS and the ECMWF models to decrease to near zero in the 36-48 h
time frame, and that is when Rene should be able to take advantage
of marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5C and modest
mid-level humidity conditions, and obtain hurricane status in 48-60
h. Thereafter, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to induce
gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over warmer SSTs of
27-28C. The official intensity forecast is similar to the GFS
model intensity forecast, and lies below the simple consensus model
IVCN and the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 18.9N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 19.4N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 23.5N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 28.3N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 100233
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 100233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 34.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 34.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 33.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 35.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.9N 37.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.4N 39.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 41.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 43.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 45.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 46.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 28.3N 47.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 092034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Although the cloud pattern of Rene has changed little in overall
organization since earlier today, there are some indications that
the easterly shear over the storm has diminished somewhat. Cirrus
cloud motions show that upper-level outflow is slightly more evident
over the eastern portion of the circulation, but it remains limited
over that region. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Vertical shear is
predicted to be modest over Rene during the next couple of days, and
this should allow for some strengthening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the model consensus and continues to show the
system becoming a hurricane, albeit briefly. After day 3, the
western portion of a large upper-level trough over the eastern
Atlantic is likely to impart increased shear, which should lead to
weakening.

Conventional satellite and microwave fixes show a continued
west-northwestward motion at about 285/11 kt. Rene is currently
located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 40W-45W
longitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest in 3-5 days. By the end of the forecast period,
Rene's forward progress begins to be blocked by building mid-level
heights to its north and northwest, which should cause the cyclone's
forward motion to slow down significantly. The official track
forecast has been adjusted farther to the left of the previous one,
to be closer to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.4N 34.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 19.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 26.9N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 28.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 092033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 32.7W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 32.7 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 092032
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 32.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.4N 34.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 36.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 26.9N 46.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 32.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 091431
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Although easterly shear has been affecting the system, Rene is
producing vigorous deep convection, along with a broad convective
band, over its western semicircle. Scatterometer data indicate
winds to 35 knots over the northwestern quadrant, and therefore the
system is again being designated as a tropical storm. The cyclone
should be within an environment of moderate vertical shear, on the
western side of an upper-level anticyclone, for the next couple of
days. Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is
expected to become a hurricane late this week. By the weekend,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official
intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.

Rene is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, on the
southern side of a mid-level ridge. A weakness in the ridge near
40W longitude is likely to cause the storm to turn toward the
northwest in 2 to 3 days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. By the end of the forecast period, Rene's forward
progress should slow as it encounters a block in the mid-level
flow. As anticipated, the official track forecast is shifted to
the left of the previous one, but not as far to the left as the
latest corrected multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.6N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 091431
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE RESTRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 31.5W
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 31.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the northwest.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 091431
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 31.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 33.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 35.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.7N 40.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 42.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 45.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 31.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090846
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with Rene is
increasing and becoming better organized, with a broad convective
band forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates indicate that the cyclone is close to regaining tropical
storm strength, but the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt
to see if the convection persists and what upcoming scatterometer
data shows.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. There is
little change in the forecast philosophy for the first 48-60 h of
the forecast, with Rene expected to continue west-northwestward.
This part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous
track. After 60 h, much of the track guidance has shifted
significantly to the left and shows less of a northward turn by
96-120 hr. This shift has left the GFS and the old forecast on the
right side of the guidance envelope. This part of the new forecast
track is moved to the left of the previous track, but it lies to
the right of the various consensus models. If the current guidance
trends continue, additional westward shifts of the later part of
the forecast track may be necessary in subsequent advisories,

Conditions appear generally favorable for Rene to strengthen during
the next 48-60 h, although the cyclone will be moving over sea
surface temperatures of near 26.5C during that time. The intensity
forecast calls for Rene to re-intensify and become a hurricane by
the 60 h point. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter
moderate to strong northwesterly shear which should cause
weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged since the
previous forecast, and it lies between the ICON and HCCA intensity
consensus forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 17.4N 30.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 24.2N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 28.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 30.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090846
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 30.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 30.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h), and a motion toward west-northwest is expected for the
next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery shows that the system is becoming better
organized, and Rene is expected to regain tropical storm strength
later today and become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090846
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 29.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 34.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.8N 38.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 41.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 30.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 30.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 090404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2020 0 29.9N 71.3W 1012 20
1200UTC 09.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 44.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2020 0 19.0N 44.5W 1000 38
1200UTC 09.09.2020 12 19.5N 45.9W 1002 39
0000UTC 10.09.2020 24 20.3N 47.1W 1004 39
1200UTC 10.09.2020 36 20.7N 48.5W 1004 40
0000UTC 11.09.2020 48 20.8N 49.7W 1003 36
1200UTC 11.09.2020 60 21.1N 50.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 12.09.2020 72 21.7N 51.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 12.09.2020 84 22.7N 52.5W 1004 25
0000UTC 13.09.2020 96 24.6N 53.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 13.09.2020 108 26.0N 54.6W 1008 25
0000UTC 14.09.2020 120 27.1N 55.8W 1010 25
1200UTC 14.09.2020 132 28.2N 57.6W 1011 26
0000UTC 15.09.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 28.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2020 0 16.7N 28.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 09.09.2020 12 17.8N 31.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 10.09.2020 24 18.6N 33.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 10.09.2020 36 19.2N 35.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 11.09.2020 48 20.0N 37.3W 1004 34
1200UTC 11.09.2020 60 21.4N 39.0W 1000 40
0000UTC 12.09.2020 72 23.3N 40.5W 1002 40
1200UTC 12.09.2020 84 25.5N 42.3W 1007 36
0000UTC 13.09.2020 96 27.6N 43.6W 1009 36
1200UTC 13.09.2020 108 29.3N 44.5W 1010 39
0000UTC 14.09.2020 120 30.0N 45.2W 1012 36
1200UTC 14.09.2020 132 30.1N 46.4W 1013 27
0000UTC 15.09.2020 144 30.2N 47.6W 1013 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.9N 16.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 36 11.9N 16.9W 1007 27
0000UTC 11.09.2020 48 12.4N 19.9W 1002 33
1200UTC 11.09.2020 60 12.7N 23.0W 990 44
0000UTC 12.09.2020 72 13.3N 25.8W 989 45
1200UTC 12.09.2020 84 14.1N 28.9W 986 47
0000UTC 13.09.2020 96 14.8N 31.4W 981 51
1200UTC 13.09.2020 108 15.8N 34.2W 977 58
0000UTC 14.09.2020 120 16.7N 36.8W 972 63
1200UTC 14.09.2020 132 17.8N 39.6W 970 62
0000UTC 15.09.2020 144 19.1N 42.1W 966 66

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.7N 124.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2020 108 16.7N 124.3W 1004 26
0000UTC 14.09.2020 120 16.7N 124.9W 1003 26
1200UTC 14.09.2020 132 17.2N 124.5W 1004 28
0000UTC 15.09.2020 144 18.6N 123.8W 1005 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090404

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 090404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2020 29.9N 71.3W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 44.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2020 19.0N 44.5W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2020 19.5N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 20.3N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 20.7N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 20.8N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 21.1N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 21.7N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 22.7N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 24.6N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 26.0N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 27.1N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 28.2N 57.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 28.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2020 16.7N 28.5W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2020 17.8N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 18.6N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 19.2N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 20.0N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 21.4N 39.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 23.3N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 25.5N 42.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2020 27.6N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 29.3N 44.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 30.0N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 30.1N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 30.2N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.9N 16.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2020 11.9N 16.9W WEAK
00UTC 11.09.2020 12.4N 19.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2020 12.7N 23.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2020 13.3N 25.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 14.1N 28.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 14.8N 31.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2020 15.8N 34.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2020 16.7N 36.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.8N 39.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 19.1N 42.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.7N 124.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2020 16.7N 124.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2020 16.7N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.2N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.6N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090404

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090253
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 29.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 29.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected
over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is
expected to regain tropical storm strength later this morning,
and become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 090251
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020

Rene's circulation remains fairly robust based on a 08/2148Z ASCAT-A
overpass. However, the overall convective pattern has eroded
significantly, and this is reflected in the ASCAT scatterometer wind
data only showing surface winds of about 25 kt. Allowing for some
undersampling, plus a recent increase in convection near the
center, the intensity has only been lowered to 30 kt for this
advisory. Rene remains beneath a pronounced upper-level anticyclone
and outflow is fairly symmetrical in all quadrants.

The initial motion is 285/14 kt. There continues to be no
significant change to previous forecast track or reasoning. Rene is
expected to move generally west-northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next couple of
days, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the
northwest on Friday and a motion toward the north on Saturday and
Sunday. The latest NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on
this developing steering flow pattern, thus the new NHC track
forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory
track and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA, GFEX,
and NOAA-HCCA.

Although Rene has weakened, a burst of strong convection with cloud
tops colder than -80C has developed over and to the west of the
center, while a fragmented band of convection has formed in the
northern semicircle. These features strongly suggest that Rene is
poised to restrengthen soon. Sea-surface temperatures are expected
to be 26.0-26.5 deg C in the 24-60 h period, which are only marginal
for strengthening to occur. However, mid-level humidity values are
forecast to be near 70 percent and the cyclone is expected to remain
under a favorable upper-level anticyclone during that time. Given
these factors, slow but steady intensification is forecast, with
Rene still expected to become a hurricane in 2-3 days. Thereafter,
strong westerly to west-northwesterly vertical wind shear in excess
of 25-30 kt is expected to cause Rene to weaken significantly on
days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is similar to but
slightly lower than the previous intensity forecast, and is along
the extreme upper portion of the guidance envelope and is above the
intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 17.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 090250
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Wed Sep 09 2020

...RENE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS..


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 29.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 29.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected
over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is
expected to regain tropical storm strength later this morning,
and become a hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 090250
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 29.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N 31.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 33.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 35.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 41.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 40.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 29.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 082034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is
producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around
the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from
earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the
earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt.
The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has
been discontinued.

Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the
past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to
take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind
shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a
hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will
likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear,
which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period.
This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely
follows the IVCN model.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has
been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time,
the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then
to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is
a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain
differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene
recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.8N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 082033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS..


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 27.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 27.9 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward
the west or west-northwest is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 082033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 27.9W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 27.9W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 27.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 27.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081744
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...OUTER BANDS OF RENE STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN CABO
VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CVT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 27.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 27.2 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward
the west or west-northwest is expected over the next two or three
days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will continue to
move away from the Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but
gradual strengthening is forecast on Thursday and Friday. Rene is
forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over the
western portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. These winds will
subside by tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are affecting portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 081431
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Rene is starting to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands, though
some of the outer rainbands are affecting the far northwestern
islands. Although the tropical storm has a well-defined
circulation, the convective banding features have not become any
better organized since yesterday. The satellite classifications are
largely unchanged and range from 25 to 37 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B
pass showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range. Based on all of
this data, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt.

The tropical storm is moving westward at a faster pace of 14 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Rene is expected to build westward,
which should cause the cyclone to move westward to
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next
couple of days. After that time, the storm is expected to slow down
and turn northwestward and then northward as it moves into a
pronounced weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the
overall scenario, there are notable differences in where and how
sharply Rene will recurve with the GFS on the right side of the
guidance and the ECMWF on the left. The NHC track forecast is
adjusted a little to the right of the previous one, but still lies
closer to the left side of the guidance envelope between the HCCA
and TVCA consensus aids.

Although Rene has not strengthened since yesterday, the models
continue to suggest that the storm will steadily strengthen during
the next few days while it moves over relatively warm 26-27 C
waters and remains in environment of low wind shear and high
moisture. Beyond that time, increasing southwesterly wind shear
and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and lies near the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands for a few more hours. A
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions
of the western Cabo Verde Islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 16.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 18.3N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 19.3N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 26.5N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081431
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE STILL BRINGING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
TO THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 26.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 26.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next two or three
days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will move away
from the Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual
strengthening on Thursday and Friday. Rene is forecast to
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over the
western portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. These winds will
subside later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are affecting portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 081431
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 26.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 26.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 25.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 33.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.3N 36.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 38.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.1N 39.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.5N 42.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 26.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081134
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CVT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 25.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM CVT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 25.7 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will move away from the Cabo
Verde Islands later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by
gradual strengthening tonight and Thursday. Rene is forecast to
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the western
portion of the Cabo Verde Islands will continue for a few more
hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are affecting portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080838
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

While Rene continues to have a well-defined circulation, satellite
imagery indicates that the associated convection remains poorly
organized. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are in the 30-35 kt range. Based on these, along with a
28 kt observation from Sal/GVAC, the initial intensity remains a
possible generous 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 280/13 kt. There is no change
in the track forecast philosophy, as a westward motion is expected
today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as
Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the
aforementioned ridge. The track guidance has shifted a little
eastward after 72 h, and the new track forecast is also nudged
eastward during that time. Other than that, the new forecast track
is similar to the previous track.

It is unclear why the convection is currently so poorly organized,
although land interaction with the Cabo Verde Islands is a
possibility. Conditions generally appear favorable for
strengthening during the next three days or so, and much of the
intensity guidance forecasts Rene to become a hurricane in 2-3 days
time even though the water temperatures gradually decrease along
the forecast track. After 72 h, Rene is expected to reach both
warmer water and strong westerly shear, with the latter expected to
cause the storm to weaken. The new intensity forecast has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast and follows the trend of
the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. A Tropical Storm Warning
is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 16.4N 24.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 24.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 24.9 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central
and western Cabo Verde Islands today, and then move away from the
islands tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual
strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the central
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the
western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080837
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 24.9W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 24.9W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 24.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 24.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080550
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CVT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 24.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF SAO NICOLAU CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM CVT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 24.0 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central
Cabo Verde Islands this morning and over the western Cabo Verde
Islands this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by
gradual strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to
become a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. Sal, Cabo Verde Islands, recently reported
sustained winds of 32 mph (52 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the eastern portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the remainder
of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080231
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Convection has noticeably waned during the past few hours as Rene's
center moved directly over Boa Vista island between 07/2200 UTC and
08/0000 UTC. The highest observed wind speed thus far has been a
10-minute average wind of 25 kt at Sal/GVAC. Satellite intensity
estimates range from 35 kt from TAFB to 30 kt from SAB. A 07/2323
UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated peak winds of 27 kt, but land
obscuration likely has resulted in some missed higher wind speeds.
For now, the intensity will remain at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A westward motion is expected
today, followed by a west-northwestward motion through Thursday as
Rene rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge. On days 4 ad 5, the cyclone is forecast to move more slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward through a weakness in the
aforementioned ridge. The track guidance appears to have stabilized
on the latest set of model runs and, thus, the new NHC forecast
track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close
to a blend of the TVCA and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models.

The intensity forecast was held steady for the next 12 h or so
until Rene clears the negative influence of the mountainous Cabo
Verde Islands. It's possible that Rene could even weaken by the time
it passes the western Cabo Verde Islands. Thereafter, however,
environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
gradually strengthen, becoming a hurricane on day 3. By days 4 and
5, an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
induce a weakening trend. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar
to a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA intensity consensus models,
and the GFS model.

Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning and afternoon. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.2N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 18.2N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 19.1N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 20.2N 38.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.6N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 23.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF BOA VISTA CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 23.5 West. Rene is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion toward
the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central
Cabo Verde Islands this morning and over the western Cabo Verde
Islands this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual
strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a
hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the eastern portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the remainder
of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 23.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 23.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 22.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N 28.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 30.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.2N 33.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 36.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.2N 38.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.1N 41.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 44.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 23.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072342
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...TROPICAL STORM RENE MOVING OVER BOA VISTA ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CVT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 22.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E BOA VISTA CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM CVT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 22.8 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will
pass over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene could become a
hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the eastern portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the remainder
of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through early Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 072034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

The cyclone is getting better organized on its approach to the Cabo
Verde Islands. Banding features are now well established over the
western part of the circulation, and some smaller bands are filling
in east of the center. The satellite intensity estimates currently
range from 30 to 35 kt. Based on this data and the improved
satellite appearance of the system, the initial intensity is raised
to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Rene. Rene is the 17th
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.

Rene is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and it should continue
moving in that direction with some increase in forward speed for at
least the next few days while subtropical ridging builds westward to
the north of the storm. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
turn to the northwest is expected as Rene moves into a weakness in
the ridge. The models have shifted eastward at the longer ranges,
especially the ECMWF model, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
in that direction at days 3 through 5.

Rene is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next few days as
the storm is expected to remain over relatively warm water while
moving through an environment consisting of low vertical wind shear
and high amounts of moisture. An increase in southwesterly shear
late this week and this weekend should end the strengthening trend
and induce some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is again an
update of the previous one, and is now in line with the HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Rene is expected to produce tropical storm conditions across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. Rene will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RENE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 22.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 22.3 West. Rene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
will pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene could become a
hurricane in a two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later this evening and
spread westward across the remainder of those islands through early
Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward
across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 072034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 22.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 22.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 21.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.3N 24.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.8N 32.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 35.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 37.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 41.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 26.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 22.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071733
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
500 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THOSE ISLANDS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CVT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 21.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CVT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 21.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near
or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread
westward across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 113.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2020 0 16.8N 113.5W 1008 19
0000UTC 08.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2020 0 16.7N 41.9W 1003 26
0000UTC 08.09.2020 12 17.4N 42.4W 1001 30
1200UTC 08.09.2020 24 17.8N 42.7W 1000 32
0000UTC 09.09.2020 36 18.9N 43.4W 1000 40
1200UTC 09.09.2020 48 19.5N 45.2W 1002 42
0000UTC 10.09.2020 60 19.9N 47.1W 1004 41
1200UTC 10.09.2020 72 20.0N 48.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 11.09.2020 84 19.7N 49.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 11.09.2020 96 20.0N 50.2W 1002 31
0000UTC 12.09.2020 108 20.5N 50.0W 1002 27
1200UTC 12.09.2020 120 21.9N 50.3W 1003 25
0000UTC 13.09.2020 132 24.4N 49.7W 1005 24
1200UTC 13.09.2020 144 25.6N 49.9W 1007 23

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 20.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2020 0 15.9N 20.8W 1004 25
0000UTC 08.09.2020 12 16.2N 23.2W 1003 26
1200UTC 08.09.2020 24 16.6N 25.3W 1004 27
0000UTC 09.09.2020 36 17.2N 27.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 09.09.2020 48 17.9N 31.1W 1005 29
0000UTC 10.09.2020 60 18.5N 33.6W 1005 31
1200UTC 10.09.2020 72 19.2N 35.9W 1003 33
0000UTC 11.09.2020 84 20.5N 37.3W 1001 35
1200UTC 11.09.2020 96 22.5N 39.1W 999 42
0000UTC 12.09.2020 108 25.3N 40.3W 994 50
1200UTC 12.09.2020 120 27.8N 41.2W 997 46
0000UTC 13.09.2020 132 30.0N 40.9W 997 47
1200UTC 13.09.2020 144 31.8N 39.8W 999 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.7N 15.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 72 11.3N 16.5W 1005 29
0000UTC 11.09.2020 84 11.6N 19.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 11.09.2020 96 12.0N 21.8W 992 44
0000UTC 12.09.2020 108 13.0N 24.3W 990 47
1200UTC 12.09.2020 120 14.2N 27.4W 987 49
0000UTC 13.09.2020 132 15.3N 30.5W 983 53
1200UTC 13.09.2020 144 16.4N 33.6W 982 54

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.9N 121.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2020 120 16.9N 122.8W 1003 26
0000UTC 13.09.2020 132 17.2N 124.2W 1001 30
1200UTC 13.09.2020 144 17.3N 125.9W 999 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071558

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071433
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

Tropical Depression Eighteen is very near tropical storm strength.
Satellite images show banding features gradually organizing on the
west side of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum
winds around or slightly above 30 kt in the bands to the northwest
of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are
lower, however. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now,
but it seems very likely that the depression will become a tropical
storm later today.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A subtropical
ridge situated to the north of the system is expected to build
westward across the eastern Atlantic during the next 3 or 4 days.
This steering pattern should keep the system on a general
west-northwestward course during that time. By the weekend, the
depression will likely be moving into a weakness in the ridge,
which should cause a turn to the northwest. The models are in good
agreement during the next few days, but there is increasing spread
in the guidance by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the
various consensus models.

The depression will likely strengthen during the next few days as
it remains in conducive environmental conditions of low wind shear,
relatively warm waters, and a moist airmass. There will likely be
an increase in shear by the end of the week and this weekend, which
should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce some
weakening at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an
update of the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm
later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.

2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 21.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 071432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 21.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 21.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 20.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.1N 23.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 25.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.9N 28.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.4N 31.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 34.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 36.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 40.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 21.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...
...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 21.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 21.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near
or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread
westward across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071223
TCDAT3


Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020

800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020



Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low

pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase

and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible

satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become

better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated

on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic

hurricane seasons. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and

SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued

improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for

this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide

additional information on the intensity of the cyclone.



The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and

the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will

remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression

traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius.

These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should

allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC

forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later

today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the

cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the

global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow

over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive

factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the

end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the

IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus.



The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10

kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is

forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected

to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track

guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a

weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west.

and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then

northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical

Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some

binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the

period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of

agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the

long-range track forecast.



Key Messages:



1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm

later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread

over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.



2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to

portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 071156
TCDAT3


Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020

800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020



Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low

pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and

become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite

imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better

defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a

new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic

hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB

support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement

in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this

advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional

information on the intensity of the cyclone.



The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and

the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will

remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression

traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius.

These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should

allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC

forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later

today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the

cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the

global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow

over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive

factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the

end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN

multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus.



The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain

280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression

is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is

expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the

track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that

time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees

west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and

then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical

Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some

binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the

period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of

agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the

long-range track forecast.



Key Messages:



1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm

later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread

over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.



2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to

portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 071150
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
1100 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...
...FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CVT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 20.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM CVT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 20.7 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to spread
westward across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 070852
TCDAT3


Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020

800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020



Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low

pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and

become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite

imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better

defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a

new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic

hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB

support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement

in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this

advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional

information on the intensity of the cyclone.



The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and

the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will

remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression

traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius.

These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should

allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC

forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later

today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the

cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the

global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow

over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive

factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the

end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the

IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus.



The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain

280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression

is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is

expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and

the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After

that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40

degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn

west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its

northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since

there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical

cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is

not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than

average in the long-range track forecast.



Key Messages:



1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm

later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread

over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands.



2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to

portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 070844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020
800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 20.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 20.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the
eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread
westward across the remainder of those islands tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 070844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020
0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 20.3W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 20.3W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 19.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 20.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>