Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (KARINA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (KARINA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 124.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 124.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.7N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 23.9N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.8N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.5N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 125.1W.
17SEP20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
702 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND
180400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170237
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020


Karina has lacked deep convection for sufficiently long to be
deemed a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory.
Satellite imagery shows a well-developed low cloud swirl that is
estimated to be producing winds to 30 kt, primarily based on an
earlier ASCAT pass. Karina is moving northwestward at 8 mph, and
although a turn toward the west is expected the next day or so, it
will remain over 23C waters. This will prevent the redevelopment of
significant convection, and the cyclone is expected to gradually
spin down until it becomes a trough and dissipates in a couple days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 23.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 125.0W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina
was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 125.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h). A westward motion is expected on Thursday and Friday, with
little change in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the remnant low will likely
dissipate in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on the remnant low
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170234
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.8N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 125.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERIVCE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 162039
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has
moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by
cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly
vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a
well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of
deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt
for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass.

The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by
a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not
expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant
low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered
by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a
turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs
in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the
previous and is supported by global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 162034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karina Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL SOON BECOME A REMNANT
LOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 124.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karina
was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 124.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn
toward the southwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become
a remnant low by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 162033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161436
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this
morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of
the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds
remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by
a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous
35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing
cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening
is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and
the cyclone should continue on this general motion through
Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina
degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level
tradewind flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 161435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 123.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 123.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn back
toward the west-northwest is forecast today. A slower westward
motion is expected toward the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become
a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 161435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160823
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Karina is weakening in a hurry. Deep convection near the center
has largely dissipated, and the only area of lingering convection is
in the northeastern quadrant. An ASCAT overpass from around 0500
UTC showed maximum winds in the 30-35 kt range, and based on that
data the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.

The tropical storm is already in unfavorable conditions of cool 25
C waters and a dry and stable airmass. Since Karina will be moving
over even cooler waters and into an environment of stronger
southerly wind shear, continued weakening is expected. Karina is
now forecast to become a remnant low by 24 hours and dissipate
within a few days.

Karina is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt as it remains
steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about
another day, but after Karina becomes a shallow remnant low it is
expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.7N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160822
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...KARINA WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 123.7W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 123.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A slower westward motion is
expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is
expected to become a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160822
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 123.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 123.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 123.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.4N 124.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.1N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.1N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160242
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the
past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level
center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50
kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO.

Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered
by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north,
respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly
to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term,
gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water.
As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in
about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to
increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests
increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone,
and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple
of days, dissipating shortly thereafter.

As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level
northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to
the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a
turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast
has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the
dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little
changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...KARINA HANGING ON BUT WILL SOON WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 123.0W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 123.0 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue into Wednesday. Some slowing in forward
speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected
thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening should begin tonight, and Karina is forecast to
become a remnant low in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 152059
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Latest satellite images show little significant change in the
organization of deep convection associated with Karina since the
previous advisory. Although the thunderstorms are primarily
limited to the southwest semicircle, they remain over the center,
and outflow in the northeast semicircle appears somewhat improved
in the last couple of hours. A blend of subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates of 3.0/45 kt from SAB/HFO and 3.5/55 kt from
TAFB supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt.

Karina is crossing the 26C isotherm with an initial motion estimate
of 305/10 kt, and much cooler waters lie along the forecast track.
Karina is being steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the
centered to the northeast and north respectively, and the short
term forecast anticipates some relaxation of the recent
northeasterly shear as Karina rounds the ridges. This should lead to
slow weakening in the short term, and as south to southwesterly
shear increases after about 24 hours, Karina will continue
to weaken. Simulated satellite imagery based on HWRF guidance
indicates the cyclone will become convection-free within about 48
hours, with dissipation following soon thereafter. As Karina
weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it will be steered by
the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface
high centered to the distant northwest.

The updated track forecast lies along the same trajectory as the
previous, but is shifted slightly southward due to recent observed
motion, and is near the middle of guidance envelope. The intensity
forecast is essentially unchanged and closely follows trends
presented by SHIPS and FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 152038
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...COOLER WATERS WILL SOON WEAKEN KARINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 122.1W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or so. Some slowing in
forward speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected
thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to
become a remnant low in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 152036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 151433
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Karina has changed little in organization over the past several
hours with a concentrated area of deep convection mostly over the
southwestern portion of the circulation and over the estimated
position of the low-level center. The initial intensity is kept at
50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and
SAB and the objective UW-CIMSS ADT.

Karina is now crossing the 26 isotherm, so it is unlikely that any
further strengthening will occur. The cyclone is forecast to move
over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
atmosphere over the next couple of days. These conditions should
induce a weakening trend soon, and the deep convection is expected
to gradually wane during that time. Karina is forecast to become a
convection-free remnant low by 60 h, or perhaps a little sooner. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various
guidance aids.

The initial motion of the tropical storm is 310/09 kt, as it
continues to move along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its
northeast. This general motion should continue while the system
maintains convection. As the system becomes devoid of convection, a
turn to the west and west-southwest is anticipated as the cyclone
moves within the low-level flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.4N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 151432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...KARINA FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 121.1W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 121.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the
west and then toward the west-southwest is expected late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become
a remnant low in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 151432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 121.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 150832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Karina has continued to become a little better organized tonight
with a concentrated area of deep convection near and over the
estimated low-level center. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the initial wind
speed is nudged up to 50 kt based on that data.

Karina is approaching the 26 C isotherm, and it should be moving
over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These
less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more
stable air mass should promote gradual weakening beginning by
tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant
low in about 60 hours. In addition to the cool waters and dry air,
an increase in southerly shear should cause the remnant low to
dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A continued
northwestward motion on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, a
turn to the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as
the weak and shallow system moves in the low-level flow.

The initial 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on partial
ASCAT overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 150831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 120.6W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 120.6 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening
should begin tonight. Karina is forecast to become a remnant low
in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 150831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 120.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 150239
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly
vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing
the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully
obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be
better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak
intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO
and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at
35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have
also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB.

Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another
12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by
then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface
temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional
intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for
another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward.
The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by
weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is
close to the HCCA guidance.

The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is
forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a
mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through
60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep
convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level
flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60
hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the
southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the
previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 150237
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 119.8W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 119.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 150234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 142055
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

The morning visible images showed Karina's partially obscured low
level center under the northeast edge of the cyclone's deep
convection. The displacement of the center is due to the ongoing
presence of moderate vertical wind shear from the northeast. Cloud
top temperatures have generally warmed through most of the morning,
though the latest images showed a small burst of deep convection
south of the center. An ASCAT pass this morning showed a large
swath of 35 kt winds in the southeastern semicircle of Karina's
circulation. The initial wind radii have been increased to account
for the updated data. Dvorak fixes came in at 35 kt from SAB, and 45
kt from TAFB and PHFO. ASCAT peak winds were 37 kt. Based on a
blend of these data, and little change in Karina's appearance in
satellite imagery, the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt for
this
advisory.

Moderate shear is expected to continue to affect Karina for another
24 hours. The shear will become weak from 36 to 72 hours, but by
then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea
surface temperatures. Most of the objective aids indicate that peak
intensity has been reached, and gradual weakening will occur after
24 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows HCCA, and has
Karina becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not
sooner. This forecast trend keeps the intensity higher than the
statistical guidance.

The initial motion for this package is 305/9 kt. Karina is expected
to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level
anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72
hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection
ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The
forecast track has been adjusted a bit northward from the previous
forecast, in part due to an adjustment in the initial position, and
closely follows the HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 142048
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA AT PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 118.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 142046
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 200SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 48.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 27.4N 48.3W 1016 23
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 26.7N 49.3W 1016 24
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 26.0N 50.8W 1015 22
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 25.2N 52.5W 1015 21
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 87.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 27.9N 87.0W 997 42
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 28.5N 87.8W 987 56
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 28.9N 88.4W 978 59
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 29.4N 88.4W 969 68
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 30.0N 87.7W 958 76
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 31.0N 86.3W 983 42
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 32.0N 84.6W 997 32
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 32.5N 81.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICKY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 27.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 18.9N 27.9W 1008 36
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 19.5N 29.3W 1006 34
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 20.5N 30.2W 1007 35
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 21.4N 31.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 21.9N 34.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 22.8N 35.7W 1010 33
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 23.3N 37.5W 1009 32
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 23.3N 39.7W 1010 26
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 23.3N 42.0W 1012 27
0000UTC 19.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 65.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 32.8N 65.1W 970 62
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 34.5N 64.2W 956 72
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 36.7N 60.7W 942 88
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 38.9N 55.8W 944 93
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 41.3N 49.7W 957 80
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 43.4N 43.6W 972 62
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 45.7N 39.1W 973 63
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 45.7N 36.8W 983 44
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 44.4N 35.7W 994 39
0000UTC 19.09.2020 108 42.2N 34.9W 1002 36
1200UTC 19.09.2020 120 40.1N 34.9W 1006 35
0000UTC 20.09.2020 132 38.6N 36.3W 1009 29
1200UTC 20.09.2020 144 37.4N 37.3W 1010 25

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 42.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 12.9N 42.3W 1006 29
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 13.0N 44.6W 1003 32
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 13.9N 46.5W 999 40
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 14.7N 47.8W 992 52
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 15.7N 49.2W 987 58
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 17.0N 50.2W 976 62
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 18.4N 51.8W 963 71
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 19.5N 53.0W 955 74
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 20.8N 54.4W 951 76
0000UTC 19.09.2020 108 21.9N 55.8W 944 86
1200UTC 19.09.2020 120 22.8N 57.4W 947 84
0000UTC 20.09.2020 132 23.6N 58.4W 947 75
1200UTC 20.09.2020 144 24.5N 58.8W 940 84

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 0 17.9N 118.1W 999 33
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 18.9N 119.5W 997 37
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 20.2N 120.7W 995 44
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 21.9N 122.6W 993 46
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 23.1N 124.0W 999 36
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 23.9N 125.1W 1003 33
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 24.4N 125.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 24.1N 126.6W 1008 23
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 23.4N 127.3W 1010 21
0000UTC 19.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 32.5N 16.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 12 32.5N 16.4E 1010 27
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 33.0N 15.2E 1009 27
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 33.2N 15.2E 1009 24
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 32.8N 16.5E 1007 27
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 33.3N 18.7E 1008 26
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 34.2N 20.7E 1008 25
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.7N 148.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2020 24 9.7N 148.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 16.09.2020 36 9.7N 149.3W 1007 25
1200UTC 16.09.2020 48 10.5N 151.4W 1007 28
0000UTC 17.09.2020 60 11.1N 154.0W 1006 30
1200UTC 17.09.2020 72 11.6N 156.1W 1006 33
0000UTC 18.09.2020 84 12.3N 158.2W 1006 36
1200UTC 18.09.2020 96 13.1N 160.6W 1007 32
0000UTC 19.09.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141605

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 48.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 27.4N 48.3W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2020 26.7N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 26.0N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 25.2N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 87.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 27.9N 87.0W MODERATE
00UTC 15.09.2020 28.5N 87.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 28.9N 88.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 29.4N 88.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2020 30.0N 87.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 31.0N 86.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 32.0N 84.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2020 32.5N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM VICKY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 27.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 18.9N 27.9W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2020 19.5N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 20.5N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 21.4N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 21.9N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 22.8N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 23.3N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 23.3N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 23.3N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 65.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 32.8N 65.1W STRONG
00UTC 15.09.2020 34.5N 64.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 36.7N 60.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 38.9N 55.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 41.3N 49.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 43.4N 43.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 45.7N 39.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 45.7N 36.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 44.4N 35.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2020 42.2N 34.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2020 40.1N 34.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2020 38.6N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2020 37.4N 37.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 42.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 12.9N 42.3W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2020 13.0N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 13.9N 46.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 14.7N 47.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2020 15.7N 49.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 17.0N 50.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 18.4N 51.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2020 19.5N 53.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2020 20.8N 54.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 21.9N 55.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2020 22.8N 57.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2020 23.6N 58.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2020 24.5N 58.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 118.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.9N 118.1W MODERATE
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.9N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 20.2N 120.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 21.9N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 23.1N 124.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 23.9N 125.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2020 24.4N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 24.1N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 23.4N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 32.5N 16.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2020 32.5N 16.4E WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2020 33.0N 15.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 33.2N 15.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 32.8N 16.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 33.3N 18.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 34.2N 20.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.7N 148.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2020 9.7N 148.1W WEAK
00UTC 16.09.2020 9.7N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 10.5N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 11.1N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2020 11.6N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2020 12.3N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2020 13.1N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141605

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 141437
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the
past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining
displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate
northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone
is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier
ASCAT data.

The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the
system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight
strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is
forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a
drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should
cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h,
the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and
the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if
not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in
good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids.

Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion
is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while
the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a
mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has
weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn
toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track
guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest
NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is
still to the south of most of the track guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 140847
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection
displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent
scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern
semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours,
possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection.
This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the
available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn
northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to
west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the
cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The
new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track
based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the
left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been
nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a
northward shift of the guidance at that time.

While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of
northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new
forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water.
Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some
strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move
over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a
remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity
forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 140847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...KARINA JOGS WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 118.2W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 118.2 West. Karina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected by tonight, with this motion continuing for
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 140847
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 110SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 140231
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Karina's satellite presentation is not terribly impressive, with the
deep convection sheared well south of what appears to be a somewhat
elongated low-level center by 15 to 20 kt of northerly shear. The
subjective Dvorak Final-T numbers have decreased a little in the
last 6 hours, but overall a blend of the objective and subjective
satellite estimates yields an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

Karina only has a limited window for strengthening, with SSTs
forecast to cool to 26C along the forecast track within 36 hours.
With the shear forecast to persist during until the waters cool and
the atmosphere dries out, the intensity guidance has trended
downward again this cycle, and so has the NHC prediction, which is
close to or a little above HCCA and higher than the simple
consensus aids. Karina should become a remnant low in about 4 days
and is expected to dissipate by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11. Karina should be steered
generally west-northwestward for the next several days, followed by
a turn toward the west in the low-level flow by 96 hours. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 140231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...KARINA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 117.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 117.1 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with
gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 140231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 110SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 132036
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

A midday ASCAT pass revealed that Karina still has an elongated
circulation and is likely still attached to the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
The center is also displaced to the northeast of the deepest
convection due to ongoing moderate northeasterly shear. The ASCAT
data confirmed that the storm currently has maximum winds of 40 k,
with most of the tropical-storm-force winds located over the
southern semicircle. With the shear not expected to decrease from
its current magnitude, only modest strengthening is expected during
the next 36 hours or so while Karina remains over waters warmer than
26 degrees Celsius. The peak intensity shown in the official
forecast has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is now the
highest intensity shown by any of the intensity models. Colder
waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should induce gradual
weakening after day 2, with Karina likely to lose all of its deep
convection and become a remnant low by day 4.

Karina turned a little bit to the left today but still has a
west-northwestward heading (290/10 kt). A mid-level ridge located
to the north should keep Karina on a west-northwestward trajectory
with some reduction in forward speed through day 4. Once it weakens
to a remnant low, Karina is expected to turn westward, steered by
lower-level trade winds. There is some north-south divergence among
the track models during Karina's expected remnant low stage, but the
overall guidance envelope has not shifted. Therefore, the updated
NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and
lies close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCE
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 132035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...KARINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 116.0W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 116.0 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through late Monday or early
Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin later on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 132035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 100SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 131453
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Karina's center is a little bit closer to the deep convection this
morning, resulting in intensity estimates increasing slightly.
Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB
and SAB, respectively, and an overnight SATCON estimate of 42 kt,
Karina's initial intensity is assumed to be 40 kt. The moderate
northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is not expected
to change appreciably during the next few days. However, Karina
will remain over ocean waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for
the next 48 hours, which should allow for a gradual intensification
trend during that period. The shear is forecast to lighten up in
3-4 days, but by then Karina will be over colder waters and in a
drier, more stable environment, which should induce weakening.
Karina is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally close to the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity
consensus and shows weakening starting a little sooner than before.

Karina is moving toward the west-northwest (300/9 kt), south of a
mid-level ridge axis which extends from northwestern Mexico
southwestward over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Karina on
this general heading with a very gradually decreasing forward speed
through day 4. Once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is
expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. No
significant changes in the track forecast were required compared to
the previous prediction, and the official forecast lies generally
close to the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 17.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 131452
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 114.7W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the southwest of the center. An automated Mexican weather
station on Clarion Island recently reported a wind gust to 44 mph
(71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 131452
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 130859
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Recent scatterometer data showed an area of 30-35 kt winds within
about 80 n mi of the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E in the
southwestern quadrant. Based on this data, along with 35-40 kt
intensity estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus,
the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Karina with an initial
intensity of 35 kt. Satellite imagery show that the system is
still being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, with the
low-level center exposed to the northeast of the main convective
mass.

The initial motion is now 310/10. The global models forecast a
mid-level ridge to build westward to the north of Karina in a day or
two, causing the cyclone to move west- northwestward. A more
westward motion is expected near the end of the forecast period as a
weakening Karin is steered more by the low-level trade winds. The
track guidance is in fair agreement with this scenario, although
there is some spread in the forward speed, possibly due differences
in how Karina interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough
circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. The new forecast
track will follow the forward speed of the consensus models and has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

The forecast track takes the center of Karin over cooler water,
with the system crossing the 25-26C isotherms in 48-72 h. Present
indications are that the shear will decrease a little before the 72
h point, so the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening
during that time. After 72 h, the cooler water and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast has
some minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it is in
best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model and the
Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 17.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 130858
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KARINA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 113.8W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 113.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 130858
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 60SE 80SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 130238
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The last few visible satellite images indicated convection growing
closer to the center of a low pressure area that NHC has been
tracking for the past few days. Since the low was already
well-defined this afternoon, the development of organized deep
convection means that a tropical depression has formed. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB/SAB fixes
and earlier ASCAT data. The depression is embedded within a
moderate easterly wind-shear environment, partially related to its
position in the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough structure. Global model
guidance is in reasonable agreement on the large-scale circulation
becoming focused on the new tropical cyclone and a slight relaxation
of the shear during the next couple of days. This change should
lead to gradual intensification, and the new forecast is between the
model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. Beyond 2-3 days,
decreasing SSTs and increasing dry air entrainment should promote
weakening, and that is reflected below.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain northwestward or 315/08
kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward, causing the
cyclone to move west-northwestward for a few days after the weekend.
A westward turn is forecast at long range due to the shallow
cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. One big uncertainty with this
forecast is how it interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough
circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. For now, it is
assumed that only a slight slow down occurs as the depression
becomes the dominant circulation in the area, and the forecast is
more consistent with the GFS- or UKMET-based guidance. However, a
slower ECMWF-like solution is also possible, but is being given less
weight at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 130236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 112.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 112.9
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and a west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the
next few days

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday,
and further gradual strengthening is anticipated on Monday and
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 130236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>