Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NOUL-20
in Laos, Thailand, Viet Nam, Cambodia, China

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2011 NOUL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171800UTC 16.0N 110.5E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180600UTC 16.6N 107.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 181800UTC 16.7N 104.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 992 HPA
AT 15.9N 110.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.7N 107.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 16.3N 103.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 171645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (2011) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 171500
WARNING 171500.
WARNING VALID 181500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 992 HPA
AT 15.9N 110.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 16.4N 108.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 16.3N 104.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13W NWP 200917142433
2020091712 13W NOUL 009 01 280 14 SATL 040
T000 158N 1116E 045 R034 115 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 163N 1087E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T024 167N 1055E 040 R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 172N 1023E 030
T048 181N 0990E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.3N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.7N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.2N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.1N 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 110.9E.
17SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRA
CKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 1
7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
1320091318 107N1288E 15
1320091400 109N1279E 15
1320091406 119N1266E 15
1320091412 126N1254E 15
1320091418 128N1238E 20
1320091500 129N1222E 20
1320091506 125N1207E 20
1320091512 124N1193E 30
1320091518 128N1184E 35
1320091600 131N1176E 40
1320091606 135N1167E 45
1320091612 139N1160E 45
1320091618 142N1153E 45
1320091700 146N1144E 45
1320091706 156N1130E 45
1320091712 158N1116E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 009 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.3N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.7N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.2N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.1N 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 110.9E.
17SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 171345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (2011) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9
N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2011 NOUL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 15.9N 112.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 15KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180000UTC 16.4N 109.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 16.9N 106.0E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 190000UTC 17.2N 102.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 992 HPA
AT 15.9N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 16.5N 108.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 16.5N 105.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 17.2N 100.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 171045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (2011) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 15.8N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 172100UTC 16.6N 109.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 180900UTC 16.9N 106.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 17.7N 102.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 170900
WARNING 170900.
WARNING VALID 180900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 992 HPA
AT 15.8N 112.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 16.6N 109.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 16.9N 106.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 15.8N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 16.9N 106.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 17.7N 102.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13W NWP 200917081945
2020091706 13W NOUL 008 01 305 17 SATL 030
T000 156N 1130E 045 R034 095 NE QD 040 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 164N 1105E 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T024 169N 1075E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T036 174N 1043E 035 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 010 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 180N 1006E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.4N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.0N 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 112.4E.
17SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRA
CKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
1320091318 107N1288E 15
1320091400 109N1279E 15
1320091406 119N1266E 15
1320091412 126N1254E 15
1320091418 128N1238E 20
1320091500 129N1222E 20
1320091506 125N1207E 20
1320091512 124N1193E 30
1320091518 128N1184E 35
1320091600 131N1176E 40
1320091606 135N1167E 45
1320091612 139N1160E 45
1320091618 142N1153E 45
1320091700 146N1144E 45
1320091706 156N1130E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.4N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.4N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.0N 100.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 112.4E.
17SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 170745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (2011) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14
KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOUL IS LOCATED AT 15.3N, 113.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2011 NOUL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170600UTC 15.6N 113.1E
MOVEMENT NW 22KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171800UTC 16.1N 110.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 180600UTC 16.7N 108.0E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 181800UTC 16.9N 104.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 190600UTC 17.3N 102.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 15.3N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 171800UTC 15.9N 110.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 180600UTC 16.6N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 17.7N 102.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 15.3N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 16.6N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 17.7N 102.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 992 HPA
AT 15.3N 113.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.9N 110.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 16.6N 107.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 17.7N 102.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 170445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (2011) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (102.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000011400
80170

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 14.8N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 171500UTC 15.4N 111.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 180300UTC 16.0N 108.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190000UTC 16.4N 103.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 170300
WARNING 170300.
WARNING VALID 180300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 992 HPA
AT 14.8N 113.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 15.4N 111.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 16.0N 108.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 14.8N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 16.0N 108.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190000UTC 16.4N 103.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 13W NWP 200917012008
2020091700 13W NOUL 007 01 295 10 SATL 045
T000 146N 1144E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 095 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 154N 1122E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 161N 1095E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 166N 1062E 045 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 020 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 173N 1026E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.6N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 113.8E.
17SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
1320091318 107N1288E 15
1320091400 109N1279E 15
1320091406 119N1266E 15
1320091412 126N1254E 15
1320091418 128N1238E 20
1320091500 129N1222E 20
1320091506 125N1207E 20
1320091512 124N1193E 30
1320091518 128N1184E 35
1320091600 131N1176E 40
1320091606 135N1167E 45
1320091612 139N1160E 45
1320091618 142N1153E 45
1320091700 146N1144E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.6N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 113.8E.
17SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOUL IS LOCATED AT 14.4N, 114.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2011 NOUL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170000UTC 14.1N 114.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171200UTC 15.2N 111.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 180000UTC 16.1N 109.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 181200UTC 16.6N 106.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 190000UTC 17.1N 103.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 14.4N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 171200UTC 15.1N 111.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 180000UTC 15.8N 109.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.4N 103.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 14.4N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 15.8N 109.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.4N 103.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 994 HPA
AT 14.4N 114.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 15.1N 111.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 15.8N 109.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 16.4N 103.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 14.0N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
12HF 170900UTC 15.0N 111.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 172100UTC 15.7N 109.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 16.5N 104.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 162100
WARNING 162100.
WARNING VALID 172100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 994 HPA
AT 14.0N 114.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 15.0N 111.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 15.7N 109.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 14.0N 114.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 15.7N 109.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 16.5N 104.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13W NWP 200916191117
2020091618 13W NOUL 006 01 285 08 SATL SYNP 030
T000 141N 1152E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 100 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 150N 1131E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 157N 1106E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 162N 1076E 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 020 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 168N 1043E 040
T072 183N 0975E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.0N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.2N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.3N 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 114.7E.
16SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
1320091318 107N1288E 15
1320091400 109N1279E 15
1320091406 119N1266E 15
1320091412 126N1254E 15
1320091418 128N1238E 20
1320091500 129N1222E 20
1320091506 125N1207E 20
1320091512 124N1193E 30
1320091518 128N1184E 35
1320091600 131N1176E 40
1320091606 135N1167E 45
1320091612 139N1160E 45
1320091618 141N1152E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.0N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.2N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.3N 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 114.7E.
16SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2011 NOUL (2011)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NOUL IS LOCATED AT 13.7N, 114.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 994 HPA
AT 13.7N 114.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 14.9N 112.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 15.6N 110.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 16.5N 104.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 994 HPA
AT 13.6N 115.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 15.0N 113.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 15.9N 111.2E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13W NWP 200916133055
2020091612 13W NOUL 005 01 285 11 SATL 030
T000 137N 1156E 045 R034 065 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 146N 1138E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T024 155N 1115E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 161N 1088E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 164N 1055E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 180N 0987E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.6N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.1N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.4N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.0N 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 115.2E.
16SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
1320091318 107N1288E 15
1320091400 109N1279E 15
1320091406 119N1266E 15
1320091412 126N1254E 15
1320091418 128N1238E 20
1320091500 129N1222E 20
1320091506 125N1207E 20
1320091512 124N1193E 30
1320091518 128N1184E 35
1320091600 131N1176E 40
1320091606 134N1167E 45
1320091612 137N1156E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 115.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 115.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.6N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.1N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.4N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.0N 98.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 115.2E.
16SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 13W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 998 HPA
AT 13.3N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 14.3N 114.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 15.3N 113.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 160300
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 1000 HPA
AT 13.1N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 14.0N 115.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 15.2N 113.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 152100
WARNING 152100.
WARNING VALID 162100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2011 NOUL (2011) 1000 HPA
AT 13.0N 118.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160900UTC AT 14.0N 116.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 14.8N 115.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=