Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KUJIRA-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 292100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 40.5N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 41.7N 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 159.4E.
29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802
NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AND
ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES
APPARENT IN THE EIR LOOP THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING
TREND IN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/3.5
(PGTW) AND T3.5/4.0 (RJTD). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (40+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COLD (<25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HAS ENTERED INTO
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED DISCUSSION OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND STORM STATUS TO REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 292000
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 200929191450
2020092918 15W KUJIRA 013 01 045 21 SATL 020
T000 380N 1582E 055 R050 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T012 405N 1629E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 417N 1691E 035 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 40.5N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 41.7N 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 159.4E.
29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802
NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET.//
1520092518 178N1590E 15
1520092600 182N1597E 15
1520092606 186N1601E 20
1520092612 191N1601E 20
1520092618 198N1595E 25
1520092700 206N1588E 30
1520092706 217N1577E 30
1520092712 234N1566E 35
1520092718 251N1554E 35
1520092800 266N1541E 40
1520092806 280N1532E 45
1520092812 289N1531E 45
1520092818 304N1535E 50
1520092818 304N1535E 50
1520092900 326N1541E 60
1520092900 326N1541E 60
1520092906 348N1551E 65
1520092906 348N1551E 65
1520092906 348N1551E 65
1520092912 365N1564E 65
1520092912 365N1564E 65
1520092912 365N1564E 65
1520092918 380N1582E 55
1520092918 380N1582E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 292000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 158.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 158.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 40.5N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 41.7N 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 159.4E.
29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802
NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 28.3N 153.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 31.8N 153.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 35.7N 155.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 994 HPA
AT 27.3N 153.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 21
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 30.0N 153.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 33.5N 154.0E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2013 KUJIRA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280000UTC 26.6N 153.9E
MOVEMENT NW 18KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 281200UTC 29.4N 153.0E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 290000UTC 32.9N 153.7E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 291200UTC 36.5N 156.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 300000UTC 39.5N 159.8E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 010000UTC 41.3N 170.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 994 HPA
AT 26.6N 153.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 23
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 29.0N 152.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 32.6N 153.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 39.7N 159.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 998 HPA
AT 25.8N 154.7E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 21
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 28.5N 153.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 31.7N 153.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 200927202151
2020092718 15W KUJIRA 005 01 325 20 SATL XTRP 040
T000 251N 1554E 035 R034 135 NE QD 200 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 281N 1538E 040 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 312N 1536E 055 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 347N 1550E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 382N 1582E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 414N 1682E 040 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 25.1N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.1N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.2N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 34.7N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 38.2N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 41.4N 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 155.0E.
27SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
1520092518 178N1590E 15
1520092600 182N1597E 15
1520092606 186N1601E 20
1520092612 191N1601E 20
1520092618 198N1595E 25
1520092700 206N1588E 30
1520092706 217N1577E 30
1520092712 234N1566E 35
1520092718 251N1554E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 25.1N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.1N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.2N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 34.7N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 38.2N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 41.4N 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 155.0E.
27SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2013 KUJIRA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271800UTC 25.1N 155.2E
MOVEMENT NW 25KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 280600UTC 27.9N 153.8E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 281800UTC 30.8N 153.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 290600UTC 34.0N 154.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 291800UTC 37.9N 158.4E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 301800UTC 41.8N 168.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 998 HPA
AT 25.0N 155.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 20
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 27.8N 153.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 31.0N 153.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 38.3N 158.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 41.7N 167.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 24.0N 156.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 26.7N 154.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 281500UTC 29.5N 153.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 291200UTC 36.1N 156.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 301200UTC 41.3N 165.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 24.0N 156.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 29.5N 153.5E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 291200UTC 36.1N 156.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 301200UTC 41.3N 165.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 200927131609
2020092712 15W KUJIRA 004 01 330 19 SATL 050
T000 233N 1566E 035 R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 261N 1547E 040 R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 291N 1536E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T036 323N 1543E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 360N 1566E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T072 410N 1662E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.1N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 29.1N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 32.3N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 36.0N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 41.0N 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 156.1E.
27SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
1520092518 178N1590E 15
1520092600 182N1597E 15
1520092606 186N1601E 20
1520092612 191N1601E 20
1520092618 198N1595E 25
1520092700 206N1588E 30
1520092706 217N1577E 30
1520092712 233N1566E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 26.1N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 29.1N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 32.3N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 36.0N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 41.0N 166.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 156.1E.
27SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KUJIRA IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 157.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2013 KUJIRA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271200UTC 23.4N 156.7E
MOVEMENT NW 18KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 280000UTC 25.9N 154.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 281200UTC 28.4N 153.0E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 290000UTC 31.3N 152.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 291200UTC 35.1N 155.9E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 301200UTC 41.9N 163.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 23.1N 157.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 25.9N 154.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 281200UTC 28.6N 153.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 291200UTC 36.1N 156.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 301200UTC 41.3N 165.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 23.1N 157.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 28.6N 153.9E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 291200UTC 36.1N 156.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 301200UTC 41.3N 165.1E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 1000 HPA
AT 23.1N 157.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 16
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 25.9N 154.8E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 28.6N 153.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 36.1N 156.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 41.3N 165.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 22.3N 157.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 25.2N 154.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 280900UTC 27.9N 153.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 290600UTC 34.1N 154.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 300600UTC 41.1N 161.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 010600UTC 41.9N 175.9E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 1000 HPA
AT 22.3N 157.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 25.2N 154.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 27.9N 153.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 22.3N 157.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 27.9N 153.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 290600UTC 34.1N 154.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 300600UTC 41.1N 161.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2013 KUJIRA (2013)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KUJIRA IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 157.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2013 KUJIRA (2013) 1000 HPA
AT 21.6N 157.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 24.5N 155.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 27.5N 153.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 34.1N 154.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 41.1N 161.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 41.9N 175.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=