Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NANGKA-20 in Viet Nam, China, Laos, Thailand from 11 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

14/10 12:45 WTPQ52RJTD141200

14/10 12:45 WTPQ22RJTD141200

14/10 10:35 WTSS20VHHH141047

14/10 09:45 WTPQ52RJTD140900

14/10 09:45 WTPQ22RJTD140900

14/10 08:24 WTSS20VHHH140747CCA

14/10 07:47 WTPN33PGTW140900

14/10 07:33 WTSS20VHHH140747

14/10 07:20 WTPQ32RJTD140600

14/10 06:45 WTPQ52RJTD140600

14/10 06:45 WTPQ22RJTD140600

14/10 06:45 WTJP23RJTD140600

14/10 04:34 WTSS20VHHH140447

14/10 03:45 WTPQ52RJTD140300

14/10 03:45 WTPQ22RJTD140300

14/10 01:39 WTPN33PGTW140300

14/10 01:33 WTSS20VHHH140147

14/10 01:25 WTPQ32RJTD140000

14/10 00:45 WTPQ52RJTD140000

14/10 00:45 WTPQ22RJTD140000

14/10 00:45 WTJP23RJTD140000

13/10 22:32 WTSS20VHHH132247

13/10 21:50 WTPQ52RJTD132100

13/10 21:45 WTPQ22RJTD132100

13/10 19:55 WTPN33PGTW132100

13/10 19:40 WTPQ32RJTD131800

13/10 19:32 WTSS20VHHH131947

13/10 18:50 WTPQ52RJTD131800

13/10 18:50 WTPQ22RJTD131800

13/10 18:50 WTJP23RJTD131800

13/10 16:32 WTSS20VHHH131647

13/10 15:50 WTPQ52RJTD131500

13/10 15:50 WTPQ22RJTD131500

13/10 14:21 WTPN33PGTW131500

13/10 13:33 WTSS20VHHH131347

13/10 13:30 WTPQ32RJTD131200

13/10 12:45 WTPQ52RJTD131200

13/10 12:45 WTPQ22RJTD131200

13/10 12:45 WTJP23RJTD131200

13/10 09:45 WTPQ52RJTD130900

13/10 09:45 WTPQ22RJTD130900

13/10 08:35 WTPN33PGTW130900

13/10 07:32 WTSS20VHHH130747

13/10 07:25 WTPQ32RJTD130600

13/10 06:45 WTPQ52RJTD130600

13/10 06:45 WTPQ22RJTD130600

13/10 06:45 WTJP23RJTD130600

13/10 04:32 WTSS20VHHH130447

13/10 03:45 WTPQ52RJTD130300

13/10 03:45 WTPQ22RJTD130300

13/10 01:40 WTPQ32RJTD130000

13/10 01:39 WTPN33PGTW130300

13/10 01:34 WTSS20VHHH130147

13/10 00:45 WTPQ52RJTD130000

13/10 00:45 WTPQ22RJTD130000

13/10 00:45 WTJP23RJTD130000

12/10 22:33 WTSS20VHHH122247

12/10 21:45 WTPQ52RJTD122100

12/10 21:45 WTPQ22RJTD122100

12/10 19:35 WTPQ32RJTD121800

12/10 19:32 WTSS20VHHH121947

12/10 19:00 WTPN33PGTW122100

12/10 18:45 WTPQ52RJTD121800

12/10 18:45 WTPQ22RJTD121800

12/10 18:45 WTJP23RJTD121800

12/10 16:33 WTSS20VHHH121647

12/10 15:50 WTPQ52RJTD121500

12/10 15:50 WTPQ22RJTD121500

12/10 14:08 WTPN33PGTW121500

12/10 13:50 WTPQ32RJTD121200

12/10 13:32 WTSS20VHHH121347

12/10 12:45 WTPQ52RJTD121200

12/10 12:45 WTPQ22RJTD121200

12/10 12:45 WTJP23RJTD121200

12/10 10:33 WTSS20VHHH121047

12/10 09:45 WTPQ52RJTD120900

12/10 09:45 WTPQ22RJTD120900

12/10 08:34 WTPN33PGTW120900

12/10 07:50 WTPQ32RJTD120600

12/10 07:35 WTKO20RKSL120600

12/10 07:00 WTPQ52RJTD120600

12/10 07:00 WTPQ22RJTD120600

12/10 07:00 WTJP23RJTD120600

12/10 03:13 WTPN33PGTW120300

11/10 21:20 WTPN33PGTW112100

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 20N 105E
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1002HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 20N 105E
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1002HPA =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141047

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 20.1N 106.0E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 20.1N 104.1E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 150900UTC 20.1N 101.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 20.1N 106.0E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 20.1N 101.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140747 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO
SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 106.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 106.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.0N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.1N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.0N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 106.3E.
14OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78
NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z
AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140747

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO
SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 20.0N, 106.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 20.0N 106.2E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 20.1N 104.7E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 150600UTC 20.1N 102.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 20.0N 106.2E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 20.1N 102.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 1000 HPA
AT 20.0N 106.2E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 20.1N 104.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 20.1N 102.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140447

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N) ONE ZERO
SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 20.0N 106.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 19.8N 105.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 150300UTC 19.7N 103.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 20.0N 106.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 19.7N 103.2E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 106.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 106.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 20.0N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.1N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.0N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 106.3E.
14OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78
NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z
AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140147

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 107.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 20.0N 107.2E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 141200UTC 19.9N 105.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 150000UTC 19.7N 103.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 20.0N 107.2E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 19.7N 103.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 996 HPA
AT 20.0N 107.2E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 19.9N 105.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 19.7N 103.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 132247

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 132100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 19.8N 107.9E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 19.8N 106.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 142100UTC 19.4N 104.1E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 19.8N 107.9E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 19.4N 104.1E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.9N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.9N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.9N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 108.4E.
13OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z
AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 19.8N, 108.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131947

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N) ONE
ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 19.8N 108.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 19.6N 106.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 141800UTC 19.4N 104.3E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 19.8N 108.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 19.4N 104.3E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 990 HPA
AT 19.8N 108.7E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 19.6N 106.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 19.4N 104.3E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131647

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE
ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 19.4N 109.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140300UTC 19.3N 107.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 141500UTC 19.2N 105.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 18.6N 100.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 19.4N 109.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 19.2N 105.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 18.6N 100.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.4N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.5N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.5N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.4N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 110.0E.
13OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131347

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 19.1N, 110.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 19.1N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140000UTC 19.3N 107.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 141200UTC 19.3N 105.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 18.6N 100.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 19.1N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 19.3N 105.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 18.6N 100.5E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 992 HPA
AT 19.1N 110.4E HAINAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 19.3N 107.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 19.3N 105.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 18.6N 100.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 18.9N 110.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 19.3N 108.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 140900UTC 19.2N 106.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 150600UTC 18.6N 101.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 18.9N 110.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 19.2N 106.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 150600UTC 18.6N 101.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 111.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.2N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.3N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.3N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.2N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 111.1E.
13OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130747

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ONE
ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 111.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 18.8N 111.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 19.3N 108.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 140600UTC 19.2N 106.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 150600UTC 18.6N 101.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 18.8N 111.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 19.2N 106.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 150600UTC 18.6N 101.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 992 HPA
AT 18.8N 111.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 19.3N 108.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 19.2N 106.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 18.6N 101.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130447

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 18.6N 111.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 19.3N 109.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 140300UTC 19.3N 107.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 150000UTC 18.0N 101.6E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 18.6N 111.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 19.3N 107.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 150000UTC 18.0N 101.6E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 18.3N, 112.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 19.2N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.5N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.6N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.5N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 111.7E.
13OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
130000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND
140300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130147

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE
ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000005800
60323

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 18.3N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 19.2N 110.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 140000UTC 19.1N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 150000UTC 18.0N 101.6E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 18.3N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 19.1N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 150000UTC 18.0N 101.6E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 992 HPA
AT 18.3N 112.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 19.2N 110.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 19.1N 107.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 18.0N 101.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 122247

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 122100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE
ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 18.0N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 18.1N 110.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 132100UTC 18.4N 107.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141800UTC 18.7N 104.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 18.0N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 18.4N 107.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141800UTC 18.7N 104.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 113.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121947

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE
ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (105.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.9N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.2N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.5N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.6N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.4N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 112.6E.
12OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 17.8N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 18.1N 111.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 131800UTC 18.4N 108.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141800UTC 18.7N 104.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 17.8N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 18.4N 108.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141800UTC 18.7N 104.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 996 HPA
AT 17.8N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 18.1N 111.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 18.4N 108.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 18.7N 104.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121647

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE
FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 17.9N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 18.4N 111.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 131500UTC 18.9N 109.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141200UTC 19.5N 106.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 151200UTC 18.7N 101.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 17.9N 114.2E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 18.9N 109.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 141200UTC 19.5N 106.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 151200UTC 18.7N 101.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 004
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.2N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.8N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.8N 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 113.8E.
12OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246
NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (CHAN-HOM) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 114.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121347

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE
FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 18.0N 114.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 18.5N 112.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 131200UTC 18.8N 110.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141200UTC 19.5N 106.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 151200UTC 18.7N 101.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 18.0N 114.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 18.8N 110.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 141200UTC 19.5N 106.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 151200UTC 18.7N 101.5E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) 996 HPA
AT 18.0N 114.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 18.5N 112.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 18.8N 110.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 19.5N 106.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 18.7N 101.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121047

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (2016) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ONE
FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 18.0N 115.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 18.5N 112.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130900UTC 18.6N 110.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 140600UTC 19.2N 107.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 150600UTC 19.7N 103.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 18.0N 115.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 18.6N 110.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 140600UTC 19.2N 107.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 150600UTC 19.7N 103.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 003
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 115.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 115.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.3N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.7N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.0N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.3N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.7N 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.7N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 115.1E.
12OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 18W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z
AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (CHAN-HOM) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2016 NANGKA (2016)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 17.3N, 117.1E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NANGKA) STATUS. TS NANGKA IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 115.7E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2016 NANGKA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120600UTC 17.7N 116.0E
MOVEMENT W 17KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121800UTC 18.0N 113.6E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 130600UTC 18.2N 111.5E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 131800UTC 18.4N 109.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 140600UTC 18.8N 107.9E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 150600UTC 19.6N 104.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 17.6N 115.7E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 18.1N 113.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130600UTC 18.4N 111.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140600UTC 19.2N 107.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 150600UTC 19.7N 103.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2016 NANGKA (2016) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 17.6N 115.7E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 18.4N 111.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 140600UTC 19.2N 107.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 150600UTC 19.7N 103.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2016 NANGKA (2016) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 17.6N 115.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 18.1N 113.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 18.4N 111.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 19.2N 107.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 19.7N 103.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 18.2N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.5N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.9N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.3N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.0N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 116.7E.
12OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
287 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND
130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
17W (LINFA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 17.5N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 18.2N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.9N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.7N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.8N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 117.7E.
11OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (LINFA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110930).//
NNNN

>