Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ZETA-20
in United States, Mexico, Cuba

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2020-10-29 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 292037
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Zeta lost tropical characteristics and was declared post-tropical a
few hours ago. The surface pressure field has become elongated
with the center now embedded within a frontal zone over the
Mid-Atlantic states. The maximum sustained winds are still
estimated to be 45 kt, based on an observation received from
northeastern North Carolina a few hours ago, and winds have been
increasing at marine sites located just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Zeta is zooming toward the east-northeast (060/48 kt), and its
center is just about to move off the Delmarva Peninsula over the
western Atlantic waters. This motion should continue for the next
day or so since Zeta is embedded within fast westerly flow ahead of
a strong mid-level trough.

Some baroclinic re-intensification is expected over the next day or
so while Zeta moves farther out over the western Atlantic, and the
12-hour forecast intensity is based on the GFS and ECMWF global
models. Zeta's center is expected to dissipate within the frontal
zone by 24 hours, with another strong low pressure area likely to
develop and move toward the north Atlantic over the next several
days. The forecast wind radii are based on guidance from the
Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last advisory issued on Zeta. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong wind gusts are still possible over portions of extreme
eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern
Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours.

2. Through this evening, the last of the heavy rainfall along the
track of Zeta is expected over the Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may
lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-29 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA ZOOMING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM WSW OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 55 MPH...89 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 75.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 55 mph (89 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge over the western
Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight, but the cyclone should
become absorbed by a frontal system on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at
Ocean City, Maryland.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: A few strong gusts are still possible across portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the
southern Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours.

RAINFALL: The last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta
will impact the Mid-Atlantic through this evening. Additional
rainfall totals of an inch or less are expected across these areas,
possibly resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-29 20:38


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 292036
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 48 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 360SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 75.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-10-29 18:04


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291802 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
Intermediate Advisory Number 20A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Corrected Tropical Storm to Post-Tropical Cyclone in Discussion and
Outlook section

...ZETA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Zeta is
moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 53 mph (85 km/h). An
even faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will continue
to move across Virginia this afternoon, and emerge over the western
Atlantic by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast once Zeta moves over the
western Atlantic, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a
frontal system by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 51 mph
(82 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) were recently reported at
a station in Conway, North Carolina, to the east of Roanoke Rapids.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread
across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia
through this evening.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon across the
Carolinas and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-29 17:52


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291749
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Zeta is
moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 53 mph (85 km/h). An
even faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will continue
to move across Virginia this afternoon, and emerge over the western
Atlantic by this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast once Zeta moves over the
western Atlantic, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a
frontal system by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 51 mph
(82 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) were recently reported at
a station in Conway, North Carolina, to the east of Roanoke Rapids.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread
across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia
through this evening.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon across the
Carolinas and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-29 14:55


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 291452
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Zeta continues to move rapidly over land, and its maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be near 45 kt over the southeastern
quadrant, with thew highest winds occuring over elevated locations.
The wind gust factor continues to be higher than usual due to the
interaction with land.

Zeta continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving near
055/42 kt. The cyclone should accelerate some more ahead of a
strong 500-mb trough moving into the eastern United States over the
next day or so. The official track forecast is in reasonable
agreement with the global model predictions.

The pressure pattern of Zeta is becoming distorted, and starting to
take on an extratropical appearance as the cyclone begins to
interact with a nearby frontal system. By this afternoon, the
global models indicate that the system will become a frontal low and
thus extratropical. Some short-term baroclinic strengthening is
possible over the western Atlantic, but the guidance suggests that
the system will become absorbed into the frontal zone in 36 hours
or so.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will continue to spread eastward across portions of
the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia through this afternoon due
to Zeta's fast forward speed.

2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of
Zeta from portions of the Ohio Valley, into the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 36.5N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-29 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA STILL PRODUCING STRONG INLAND WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 81.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NE OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 81.5 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h). An even faster
northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid
east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move across the Mid-Atlantic states
this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later
today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the
western Atlantic by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust
to 51 mph (82 km/h) were recently reported at the Greensboro
Piedmont Triad International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, continue to spread
across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina. These winds
will spread into southeastern Virginia during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today across the Carolinas
and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-29 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 291451
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
1500 UTC THU OCT 29 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 81.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 42 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 180SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 81.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.4N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 360SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 81.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-29 11:51


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 83.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Navarre to the Walton/Bay County
Line, Florida has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 83.5 West. Zeta is
racing toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even faster
northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid
east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the
southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this
afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low
later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system
over the western Atlantic by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to
82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Cashiers, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 990 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Central Gulf coast will
gradually subside throughout the day. Consult products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional
information.

WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading across
northern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina. These winds will shift into other portions of North
Carolina and southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could
be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible later today over the
Carolinas and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-29 08:42


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290840
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Zeta
weakened to a tropical storm around 0600 UTC when it was located
over central Alabama. During the past few hours, the cyclone's
structure has degraded further with the center no longer easily
apparent in radar images and convection appearing more ragged and
asymmetric. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this
advisory, and that could be a little generous. The minimum
pressure is estimated to be 988 mb based on surface observations.

The storm continues to accelerate, and the latest initial motion is
northeastward at 34 kt. Zeta is expected to race northeastward
today in the fast steering flow between a potent mid- to upper-level
low to its west and a high pressure ridge to its southeast. This
pattern should take the cyclone across the southeast and
Mid-Atlantic states throughout the day, before emerging over the
western Atlantic this evening. An even faster east-northeastward
motion is predicted tonight and on Friday until the cyclone
dissipates by Friday night.

The tropical storm is forecast to weaken a little more during the
next several hours as it remains over land, and Zeta will likely
become extratropical by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic
states this afternoon. However, after that time, the models show
the cyclone leveling off in strength or perhaps even
re-intensifying over the western Atlantic before it becomes
absorbed into a frontal zone in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast follows the GFS and ECMWF models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will continue to spread well inland across portions
of northeastern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and
southeastern Virginia today due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind
gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian
Mountains.

2. Through today, heavy rainfall is expected near and in advance of
Zeta from portions of the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and
lower to middle Ohio Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-29 08:42


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290840
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0900 UTC THU OCT 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INFORMATION ON
ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING CAN BE FOUND IN COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO
WEST OF NAVARRE...FLORIDA...HAS BEEN CANCELED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NAVARRE TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 85.5W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 34 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 85.5W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.7N 79.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.8N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 43.4N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 270SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 85.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-29 08:41


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290839
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on
ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products
issued by local National Weather Service offices.

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi-Alabama border to
west of Navarre, Florida, has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Navarre to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Zeta is
racing toward the northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even
faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a
rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the
southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this
afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Zeta is expected to become a non-tropical gale-force low later
today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the
western Atlantic by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Central Gulf coast will
gradually subside throughout the day. Consult products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional
information.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area near the northern Gulf Coast for a few more hours.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading well inland
across portions of central and northern Alabama, and northern
Georgia, and these winds will shift into eastern Tennessee, the
Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could
be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central
Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these
areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur this morning from parts of
the Florida Panhandle across southeastern Alabama and Georgia. A
tornado or two is possible later today over the Carolinas and
southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-29 06:03


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290600
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA...
...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 87.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings for the Mississippi coast
have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida Panhandle has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* From the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 87.4 West. Zeta is
moving quickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even
faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a
rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the
southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this
afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Zeta
should decay into a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The
low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western
Atlantic on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
An observation in Wetumpka, Alabama, recently reported sustained
winds of 44 mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

MS/AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to AL boarder including Lake
Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne ...1-3 ft
AL/FL Boarder to Yankeetown FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
the warning area near the northern Gulf Coast during the next few
hours.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading well inland
across portions of central and northern Alabama, and northern
Georgia, and these winds will shift into the Carolinas and
southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could be especially
severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over parts of southern
Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida during the next few
hours. An isolated tornado or two is possible later today across
much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-29 04:53


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 290451
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA NOW OVER WESTERN ALABAMA...
...STRONG WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING SURGE CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...

An observation in Evergreen, Alabama, recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 68 mph (109/km/h). A
wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) was recently observed in Pensacola,
Florida. A minimum pressure of 988 mb was recently reported at
Demopolis Municipal Airport in Alabama, not far from the center of
Zeta.

The National Ocean Service station at Bayou La Batre Bridge, Alabama
recently reported an inundation of 6.89 ft (MHHW).

This will be the final hourly Tropical Cyclone Update issued to
update Zeta's position and intensity. The next intermediate
public advisory will be issued at 1 AM CDT (0600 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 87.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto/Manougian

>

2020-10-29 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 290400
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA NOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND RACING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

An observation at the USS Alabama in Mobile recently reported a
sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h). An observation at the
Buccaneer Yacht Club in Mobile recently reported a wind gust of 60
mph (97 km/h).

The National Ocean Service station at Bayou La Batre Bridge, Alabama
recently reported an inundation of 6.61 ft (MHHW).


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 88.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto/Manougian

>

2020-10-29 03:00


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290258
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of
Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95
kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern
Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi. While the
sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is
actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for
this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during
the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt
on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or
040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land
effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the
center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing
these strong winds to spread well inland. Little change was made
to the intensity forecast. Zeta should become extratropical and
merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast,
eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The
official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model
consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track.

Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than
typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the
Forecast/Advisory product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the
Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the
early morning hours on Thursday.

2. Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the
next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama
coastlines. Tropical storm conditions will also continue for
portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and
far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.5N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-29 02:59


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290256
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 88.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued for
all of Louisiana, including Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida
* Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 88.7 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster northeastward
motion is expected overnight through Thursday, then a rapid
east-northeastward motion is anticipated through Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move into southern Alabama
soon and then move quickly across the southeastern eastern United
States through Thursday before emerging offshore of Mid-Atlantic
coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Zeta should
decay into a tropical storm overnight and into a non-tropical
gale-force low Thursday morning. The low should become absorbed by
a frontal system over the western Atlantic on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Mobile Regional Airport recently;y reported sustained
winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 91 mph (146 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to the Mouth of the Pearl
River...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected to
continue within the Warning areas near the northern Gulf Coast
overnight.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of
southern Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida. An isolated
tornado or two is possible tomorrow across much of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-29 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290255
TCMAT3

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0300 UTC THU OCT 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
ALL OF LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 210SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 88.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 89.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 88.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-10-29 02:07


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 290205
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
900 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA WEAKENS SOME MORE AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

During the last hour or so, several stations in the vicinity of
Gulfport and Biloxi, Mississippi reported winds gusts of 75-100 mph
(120-160 km/h). The latest observations indicate that winds are
now decreasing in these areas.

The National Ocean Service station at Waveland, Mississippi,
recently reported an inundation of 8.16 ft (MHHW).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 89.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Blake

>

2020-10-29 01:05


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 290102
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

The National Ocean Service station at Waveland, Mississippi,
recently reported sustained winds of 80 mph (129 km/h) and a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).

The National weather Service office in Slidell, Louisiana reported
a minimum pressure of 975.9 mb inside the eye of Zeta during the
past hour.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 89.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Blake

>

2020-10-28 23:59


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282356
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA BATTERING SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF SLIDELL LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 89.9 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) A faster north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
move from southeastern Louisiana into southeastern Mississippi
during the next hour or two, and then move across the southeastern
and eastern United States later tonight and on Thursday.

Radar and surface data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening
will continue to occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). Shell Beach Louisiana recently reported sustained
winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). A
Weatherflow station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 973 mb (28.74 mb).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft
MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within
the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast in a few
hours.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into
the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-28 23:04


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 282302
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE FROM ZETA OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

Don't venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes
over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye
moves away. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely on
high rise buildings.

A WeatherFlow station in Harahan, Louisiana recently reported
sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a gust to 75 mph (120
km/h).

An elevated station at Bayou Bienvenue reported sustained winds of
88 mph (142 km/h) and a gust to 112 mph (180 km/h).

An unofficial weather station near Lake Hermitage reported
sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 86 mph (138
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 90.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-28 22:03


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 282200
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...EYEWALL OF ZETA APPROACHING NEW ORLEANS WITH STRONG WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING SURGE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST...

Don't venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes
over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye
moves away. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely on
high rise buildings.

An unofficial weather station in Golden Meadow just reported
sustained winds of 94 mph (151 km/h) and a gust to 110 mph (177
km/h)

A wind gust to 52 mph (84 km/h) was recently reported at Houma,
Louisiana, and a wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was reported at New
Orleans Lakefront Airport.



SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-28 21:03


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 282100
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta is in the Terrebone Bay area of Louisiana and
is making landfall near Cocodrie. Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has
rapidly intensified this afternoon. Although the hurricane has been
moving over marginally warm SSTs and relatively low heat content
waters, it has intensified from 80 kt to 95 kt in about 6 hours. It
is possible that this intensification can be at least partly
attributable to a conducive interaction with with an upper-level
trough located a few hundred miles to the west-northwest of Zeta.
The 95-kt intensity estimate for Zeta is based on a blend of
flight-level, SFMR and dropsonde winds from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Since the center will either be interacting with land or moving over
land from this point, a weakening trend should begin tonight. The
official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance,
which should handle the exponential decay of wind seed for tropical
cyclones moving over land. In 24 hours or so, the global models
depict the system as being embedded in a front while it approaches
the United States east coast. Thus the official forecast shows an
extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the
models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal
zone.

Zeta has turned toward the north-northeast and the forward speed is
increasing, with the motion now 025/21 kt. The cyclone should
accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a 500-mb trough through
tonight. The system should then move even faster toward the
northeast, ahead of the trough, and across the southeastern and
eastern United States on Thursday. Post-tropical Zeta should move
east-northeastward, in the mid-level westerlies, into the Atlantic
Friday morning. The official track forecast follows the correct
model consensus, HCCA, rather closely.

Given Zeta's acceleration after landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. overnight and
early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is beginning along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast, with the highest inundation expected to occur
somewhere between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island,
Alabama, especially along the Mississippi coast. Overtopping of
local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern
Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System.

2. Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are spreading across
portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern
Louisiana coast and will spread to the Mississippi coast this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread into portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western
Florida Panhandle coasts in the next few hours.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 29.2N 90.6W 95 KT 110 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1800Z 37.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 41.0N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1800Z 44.0N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-28 21:02


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282059
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 90.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Zeta is making landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana.

At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) A faster north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast this evening,
and then move across the southeastern and eastern United States on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening will occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern
United States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...7-11 ft
MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...6-9 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within
the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions already occurring. Tropical storm
conditions are also likely beginning within the Tropical Storm
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and
along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf
Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into
the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-28 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 282058
TCMAT3

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 90.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 90.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 78.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 44.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 240SE 240SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 90.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-28 19:57


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281955
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA AGAIN A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...

Data from the ongoing Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
indicate that Zeta's maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts.

A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at Houma,
Louisiana, and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was reported at New
Orleans Lakefront Airport.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-28 18:59


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 281856
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EYEWALL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN AN HOUR OR TWO...

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Zeta's maximum winds have increased to 105 mph (165
km), with higher gusts, and the central pressure has fallen to 973
mb. It now appears likely that Zeta will maintain category 2
intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale until its
initial landfall in southeast Louisiana later this afternoon.

Sustained tropical storm force winds are now spreading onshore the
southeastern coast of Louisiana. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) was recently reported at Caillou Bay, Louisiana.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 90.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-28 17:55


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281753
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 91.1 West. Zeta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (35 km/h). A faster
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by
an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an
east-northeastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this
afternoon. Zeta will then move close to the Mississippi coast this
evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf
Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...5-8 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of and along the
track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 PM CDT. These
can be found under WMO header WTNT63 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCUAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-28 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 281449
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Zeta has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite images, and the
eye has been fairly well-defined. Strong upper-level outflow is
evident over the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Reports from
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
system had continued to strengthen over the past few hours. Peak
700-mb flight level winds were 89 kt, which equates to a maximum
surface wind of about 80 kt, and The central pressure has fallen to
976 mb. Zeta still has a few hours to intensify before it begins to
move over the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, and
southwesterly shear is likely to increase by the time the center
reaches the coast. Even if a little weakening begins later today,
however, Zeta should maintain hurricane strength through landfall.
The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model
guidance. In 36 hours or so, the global models clearly depict the
system as a frontal wave approaching the United States east coast so
the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point
and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming
elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone.

The hurricane has turned northward and is now moving at around
010/16 kt. A strong 500-mb trough moving into Texas will continue
to move eastward during the next 36-48 hours. The flow ahead of
this trough will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward and
move inland along the central Gulf Coast in 6-12 hours. On
Thursday, the cyclone will then move northeastward on the east
side of the trough, at an even faster pace, over the southeastern
United States. By early Friday, the system should move east-
northeastward in the westerlies and into the western Atlantic as an
extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is close to the
previous one and generally follows the dynamical model consensus.

Given Zeta's acceleration near and after landfall, strong winds are
likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. this evening
and early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast beginning later today, with the highest
inundation occurring between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials. Overtopping of local,
non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana
outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along
the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and
power outages, will spread well inland across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,
and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast
forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States
near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 26.9N 91.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-28 14:51


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281448
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY IN THE
WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 91.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City,
Louisiana is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A faster northward to north-
northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even
faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an east-northeastward
motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will
then move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move
across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the
next few hours, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf
Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United
States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...5-8 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River
including Lake Borgne...5-7 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia
this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas
and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be
especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on
Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of and along the
track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the
southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today through
Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-28 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 281448
TCMAT3

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
1500 UTC WED OCT 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY...LOUISIANA IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 91.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.1N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.3N 83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.1N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 210SE 210SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 91.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-28 11:43


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281141
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 91.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving
toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later this morning.
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern
Gulf Coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana
this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this
evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this
morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...5-7 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama
this evening and tonight.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually
affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track
from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon
through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-28 09:03


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280900
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The satellite presentation of Zeta has improved significantly
overnight with deep convection wrapping around an eye that at times
as been fairly well defined. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has just began its reconnaissance mission into Zeta
has reported a pressure that has fallen to 982 mb and a 25-30
n-mi-wide eye during it first pass through the center. It is
somewhat surprising that the plane did not report stronger winds
during its northeast eyewall pass given the improved satellite
presentation, and using a blend of the aircraft data and recent
objective and subjective satellite estimates yields and initial
intensity of 75 kt. It is possible the winds have yet to catch up
to the improved satellite appearance, but since Zeta will moving
over warm waters and in a light wind shear environment this morning
some additional strengthening is likely. Although cooler waters
and increasing southwesterly upper-level winds over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are likely to cause the cyclone's intensity to
level-off or even come down slightly, Zeta is expected to reach the
northern Gulf coast as significant hurricane by late this afternoon.
The NHC intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance, a
little above the latest HWRF prediction. After landfall, Zeta will
weaken while it moves over the southeastern United States, but the
cyclone is forecast to become an extratropical gale-force low
pressure area off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. The
post-tropical cyclone should be absorbed by frontal boundary over
the western Atlantic on Friday.

Zeta has turned north-northwestward and has begun to accelerate as
anticipated. A vigorous upper-level low moving into west Texas
will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward today, which will
bring the center of the hurricane over southeastern Louisiana by
late this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to continue to
accelerate ahead of the trough over the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday. The dynamical model are in very good
agreement and the latest NHC track is a blend of the various global
models. The new track forecast is very close the previous official
forecast.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast this evening
and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late today, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and
the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and
southern and central Alabama tonight due to Zeta's fast forward
speed.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the
central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Southern to Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and
in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.1N 91.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-28 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ZETA IS
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of the Florida panhandle
has been extended eastward to the Walton/Bay County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Zeta is moving toward
the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected soon, and a faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later this morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf coast
this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this
afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this
evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States
on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern
Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern
United States on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...6-9 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...5-7 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...3-5 ft
Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama this
evening and tonight.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually
affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and
Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track
from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon
through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through
tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-28 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280854
TCMAT3

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0900 UTC WED OCT 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 91.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 210SE 210SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-28 05:55


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280553
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ZETA RE-STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG
WINDS, STARTING IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 91.5 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected overnight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is
forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon,
move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across
the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely overnight and
this morning, and Zeta is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast
as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States
on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from
the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast this morning
through today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central
Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy
rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic late today through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across
these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across
portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula
through the early morning hours.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight
over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

2020-10-28 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280255
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonight
with a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection and
a more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recently
recording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure of
around 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on the
basis of the wind data.

The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors
intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from
a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was
present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and
sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm
remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast
still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next
6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the
high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become
an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United
States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal
system.

Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt).
The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through
Wednesday morning. A deep cold low (responsible for the southern
Plains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta to
sharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along the
southeastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. The cyclone
should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the
southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. Similar to the
last forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightly
westward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from a
consensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to
spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zeta's fast forward speed.

3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where
additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Between
tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of
the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 91.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-28 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280254
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA FORECAST TO BE A FAST-MOVING HURRICANE THAT BRINGS A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS, STARTING IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in
southeastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon, move close to the
Mississippi coast Wednesday evening, and move across the
southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again
overnight and reach the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday as a
hurricane on Wednesday afternoon before weakening over the
southeastern United States on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
Wednesday afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast tonight through
Wednesday, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central
Appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of
heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday through late Thursday. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected
across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.

Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula
through the rest of tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night over southeastern portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-28 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280253
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 91.2W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 91.2W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 90.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N 91.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.2N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 180SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 91.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-10-27 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 272041
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Visible satellite images show that the low-level center of the storm
is slightly displaced to the north of the main area of deep
convection. Since the organization of the tropical cyclone has not
yet improved, the current intensity is held at 55 kt, which is a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Zeta should
move over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment
through tomorrow morning, so strengthening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is likely to regain hurricane intensity within the next 6-12
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the model
guidance suite. Zeta is expected to interact with a frontal zone
and become an extratropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern
United States in a couple of days. After moving off the U.S. east
coast, the system is forecast to become absorbed by the same frontal
system.

Zeta continues to move northwestward, or at about 310/12 kt. The
expected large-scale steering flow evolution remains about the same
as before. Zeta is expected to turn northward and move along the
western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida
through Wednesday morning. Then, a vigorous 500-mb shortwave trough
approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north-
northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast by late
Wednesday. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the
trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through
Thursday. The official track forecast was nudged just slightly
westward in 24 to 36 hours to be in better agreement with the latest
GFS and ECMWF explicit model fields.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to
spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zeta's fast forward speed.

3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where
additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Tonight
through Thursday heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the
central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
States. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.7N 90.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-27 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 90.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north-
northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico
tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and
eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the
central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading
north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near
and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-27 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 272040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 90.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 90.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 90.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.5N 91.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.4N 87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 37.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 70.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 200SE 200SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 90.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-27 17:49


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271747
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 90.1 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the
north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico today and over the
central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland
across the southeastern United States early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen while it moves over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today.
Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance
of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6
inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban,
small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-27 17:45


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271743
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for the Yucatan Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 90.1 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the
north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico today and over the
central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland
across the southeastern United States early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen while it moves over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today.
Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance
of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6
inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban,
small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Unknown

>

2020-10-27 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 271451
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the
center of Zeta has moved just offshore of the northern coast of
Yucatan. Based on Air Force and NOAA aircraft observations a little
while ago, after the cyclone's interaction with the Yucatan, the
maximum winds had decreased to near 55 kt. The cloud pattern of the
storm is well organized, with a small Central Dense Overcast and
numerous banding features. Given this, Zeta is likely to
restrengthen as it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf
of Mexico and in a low-shear environment today through tomorrow
morning. When the cyclone nears the northern Gulf Coast in 30-36
hours, decreasing oceanic heat content and possibly stronger shear
will likely halt the intensification process. The official
intensity forecast shows slight weakening near landfall, but Zeta is
likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it crosses the
coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model
consensus and a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS guidance.

The storm continues its generally northwestward motion, or at around
305/12 kt. Zeta will move northwestward to northward around the
southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area
centered east of Florida for the next 24 hours or so. Then, a
strong 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should
cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward by
late Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the
north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern
United States on Thursday. Aside from some speed differences, the
track models are in good agreement and have shown good run-to-run
consistency. The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday
night.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zeta?--s fast forward speed.

3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from
portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall
will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which will lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 21.6N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-27 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 271445
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND
MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 89.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 220SE 300SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 89.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-27 11:44


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271142
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 89.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.3
North, longitude 89.0 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to
continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a
faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central
Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern
Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the
southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane
again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane
strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico within areas of
onshore winds.

Along the northern Gulf coast, the combination of a dangerous storm
surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to
be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The
water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in
the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area in Mexico this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the
northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late
Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-27 09:00


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270858
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Satellite imagery and surface data from Mexico indicated that Zeta
made landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula just north of
Tulum near Ciudad Chemuyil just before 0400 UTC. A WeatherFlow
observing site just south of Ciudad Chemuyil reported light winds
and a minimum pressure of 978 mb. Another WeatherFlow site near
Playa del Carmen reported a one-minute sustained wind of 64 kt with
a gust to 76 kt. Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported on
Cozumel. Since the time of landfall, the center of Zeta has moved
inland over the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Some
weakening has likely occurred, so the initial intensity has been
reduced to 60 kt. Zeta is forecast to emerge off the northern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula over the southern Gulf of Mexico shortly
after 1200 UTC today. Although some slight additional weakening is
possible while the center moves overland early this morning,
environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and
warm water over the southern Gulf of Mexico should allow for
re-strengthening over the next 24 hour or so. By the time Zeta moves
over the northern Gulf, cooler waters and increasing shear are
likely to cause the hurricane's intensity to level off or perhaps
weaken slightly before landfall. Regardless, Zeta is expected to be
at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. Given Zeta's
acceleration before landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well
inland along northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. The new NHC
intensity forecast is again similar to the previous one, and is
little above the model consensus, in best agreement with the HWRF
model.

Zeta is moving northwestward or 305/12 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning. The hurricane will move around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge center east of Florida.
By tonight, a vigorous shortwave trough ejecting out of the
southwestern United States will cause Zeta to turn northward, and
accelerate northward to north-northeastward on Wednesday and
Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast
late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday.
The track guidance remains in good agreement with only some slight
timing differences. The updated NHC track forecast is again very
similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus
models. The new track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts
necessitate the issuance of Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical
Storm Warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through this morning. Heavy
rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late
Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from
portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 21.0N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
12H 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-27 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line,
Florida.

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Allen to Progreso, including
Cozumel.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there
is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water
moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during
the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.0
North, longitude 88.4 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue
today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central
Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern
Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a
hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area within areas of onshore
flow.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area in Mexico this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the
northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late
Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-27 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...
LOUISIANA...TO NAVARRE...FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE...
FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND
MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 88.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 88.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 210SE 180SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 88.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-27 05:51


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270548
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 87.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 87.9 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north
tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is likely while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Zeta is forecast to
re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later
today, and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun recently
reported sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph
(109 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of
12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are already
occurring within the Hurricane Warning area in Mexico and should
continue for the next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart

>

2020-10-27 04:15


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 270413
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1110 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF TULUM...

Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that
the center of Hurricane Zeta made landfall along the northeast coast
of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico near Ciudad Chemuyil around 11:00
PM CDT (0400 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 80 mph (130 km/h),
a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site just south of Ciudad Chemuyil recently
reported a pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches).

A WeatherFlow observing site just south of Playa del Carmen recently
reported a sustained one-minute wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust
to 87 mph (140 km/h).

A WeatherFlow observing site in Cancun recently reported a wind
gust to 79 mph (127 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 87.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart

>

2020-10-27 02:49


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270247
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing
near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and
occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an
eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of
maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between
65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982
mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has
grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible
that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes
landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory.

The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before
landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in
intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over
land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop
it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental
conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in
the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly
light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The
peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those
factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it
could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern
Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler
waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected
to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the
model consensus.

Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about
305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and
western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east
of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from
the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to
accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and
move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model
guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor
differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and
the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic
U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and
dissipate soon thereafter.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to
continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through
Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-27 02:49


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270246
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LASHING YUCATAN...
...ZETA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 87.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 87.1 West. Zeta is moving toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast during the next day or so. Zeta should turn toward the
north Tuesday night, and a faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is anticipated on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula during
the next couple of hours, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening is forecast while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday.
Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern
Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength
when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). A Weatherflow station just south of Playa del Carmen
reported sustained winds of 67 mph (108 km/h) with a gust to 87 mph
(140 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Cancun recently reported
sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (116
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are already occurring within the
Hurricane Warning area and should continue for the next several
hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-27 02:48


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270246
TCMAT3

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6
HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 87.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 87.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 87.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-10-26 23:57


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...LANDFALL OF ZETA EXPECTED IN A FEW HOURS WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD
ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 86.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from South
of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico on the east coast of Yucatan, and
from west of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico on the north coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data near latitude 19.9 North,
longitude 86.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 12
mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward
speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward
the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward
motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter dropsonde data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-26 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 262049
TCDAT3

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

The cloud pattern of Zeta became better organized today, with deep
convection forming over and around the center and some banding
features developing. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
recently found surface winds to near 70 kt over the inner
northeastern quadrant of the circulation and a central pressure of
around 981 mb, signifying that the system had become a hurricane.
Given the increased organization over very warm waters, some
additional strengthening is possible before the center crosses the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Some weakening
should occur while Zeta interacts with land tonight and early
Tuesday. Once the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico
tomorrow, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are conducive for some
re-strengthening. When Zeta moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico
later on Wednesday, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear should halt the intensification process, with
some weakening possible by the time the center reaches the northern
Gulf Coast, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is near or above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues to move on a generally northwestward track,
or at about 305/10 kt. There are basically no changes to the track
forecast reasoning, or to the forecast itself. For the next couple
of days, Zeta should move around the southwestern and western
periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered just east of
Florida. Thereafter, a shortwave trough approaching from the west
is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward and move over the southeastern and eastern United
States. The system should move off the northeast U.S. coast and
become an extratropical cyclone within the next 4 days. The
guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday, and the
official track forecast is very close to the corrected model
consensus, HCCA.

Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for a portion of the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening
through early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected
across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are
possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the
watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected
from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.5N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-26 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana,
to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain,
Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida, and from west
of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 to 24 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in
the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Mexico this evening.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-26 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 262041
TCMAT3

HURRICANE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC MON OCT 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
TO NAVARRE FLORIDA INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY AND MOBILE BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST
OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR PINAR DEL RIO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY
AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 86.0W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 86.0W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N 87.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.1N 89.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.2N 91.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.8N 91.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.8N 88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 86.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-26 19:11


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 261909
TCUAT3

Hurricane Zeta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
210 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ZETA HAS STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Zeta has become a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds near
80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 210 PM CDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 85.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

>

2020-10-26 17:58


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261756
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the
northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves
over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is
forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf
of Mexico later on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama,
northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians
Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-26 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 261450
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

After a significant strengthening episode early this morning, Zeta
appears to have changed little in intensity recently. High spatial
and temporal resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate
that the low-level center of the storm is located near the
northwestern edge of the main area of vigorous deep convection. The
current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is the average of
recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Zeta in a few
hours, and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the
storm.

Zeta is moving northwestward, or about 305/9 kt. A mid-level high
pressure area centered just east of Florida should steer the
tropical cyclone on a continued northwestward heading for the next
day or so, taking center over the northern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula. By around 48 hours, Zeta is expected to turn northward
over the Gulf along the western side of the high. Afterward, a
shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains should induce a
turn toward the north-northeast and take the center inland over the
southern United States. The system should then move fairly quickly
northeastward across the eastern U.S. and emerge into the Atlantic
by day 4. The official track forecast has been adjusted a bit to
the west of the previous one but not quite as far west as the
corrected model consensus.

Zeta is apparently experiencing some north-northwesterly shear given
the displacement of the low-level center from the convection.
However, this shear is expected to abate very soon, and the cyclone
is likely to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening should occur while
Zeta interacts with land during the next 12 to 24 hours. The
atmospheric and oceanic environment should be somewhat conducive
while the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or
two, and the official forecast shows some re-strengthening in 24-36
hours. Later in the forecast period, when Zeta approaches the
northern Gulf Coast, cooler shelf waters and some increase in
southwesterly shear could cause some weakening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous ones and shows Zeta
still near hurricane strength at landfall along the northern
Gulf of Mexico coast, which is near or above most of the model
guidance. Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone when it
emerges into the Atlantic, and be absorbed by a frontal system
around the end of the forecast period.

Given the timing of the track and the forecast wind radii, watches
will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast
later today.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight and
early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme
western Cuba beginning later today.

2. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to
western Cuba. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban
areas. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is
expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the
southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance
of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of Zeta, as Hurricane and Storm
Surge watches will likely be issued later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 86.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 21.5N 88.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 23.3N 90.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 28.9N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-26 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261448
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 85.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 85.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night.
A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near
or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become
a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta
moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta
is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern
Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama,
northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians
Wednesday night and into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-26 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 261448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
1500 UTC MON OCT 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
* SOUTH OF TULUM TO PUNTA ALLEN
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 85.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 85.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 86.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.5N 88.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.3N 90.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.9N 90.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 40.0N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-26 11:54


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 84.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf
coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.9
North, longitude 84.8 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected
before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of
12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-26 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning
westward along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to
Dzilam. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from south of Tulum to Punta Allen and from west of Dzilam
to Progreso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.7
North, longitude 84.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected over the day or so, followed by a turn
toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected
before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of
12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-26 05:55


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260553
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ZETA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 83.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 83.9 West. Zeta is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), but a
faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula
or the Yucatan Channel later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches
are possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday,
with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches.

Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S.
Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy
rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern
Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in
advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead
to flash flooding and minor river flooding.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba
beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart

>

2020-10-26 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260244
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection on its south
side, with the low-level center estimated to be near the northern
edge of the thunderstorms. The last pass from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the minimum pressure had
fallen to 997 mb, and since the storm appears better organized than
before the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. This intensity
estimate is slightly above the latest Dvorak numbers. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are planning to be in Zeta again overnight and
that data will be helpful in assessing the storm's intensity and
structure.

Zeta has not moved much during the past several hours, and the
initial motion is a very slow north-northwest drift. As ridging
begins to build over and near Florida, Zeta is forecast to move
faster to the northwest overnight and Monday, and that should take
the center of the cyclone near or over the northeastern portion of
the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours. The ridge is then expected
to shift eastward over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday
as a large and quite powerful mid- to upper-level low moves eastward
across the southwest and south-central United States. This change
in the steering pattern should cause Zeta to accelerate northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast, and likely make landfall there on
Wednesday. The models remain in poor agreement on the details of
the evolution of the steering pattern and consequently, there is
about a 300 n mi spread in the landfall locations from the various
models, which currently spans the region from the far western
Florida panhandle to western Louisiana. The NHC track forecast is a
little west of the previous one trending toward the middle of the
guidance envelope. Based on the poor model agreement, the confidence
in the track forecast is lower than normal. It is hoped that data
being collected by the NOAA Gulfstream jet flying around Zeta
and special NWS weather balloon launches will help the models come
into better agreement on the future track of Zeta soon.

Given the low wind shear conditions, moist air mass, and high
oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, steady
strengthening seems likely until Zeta reaches the Yucatan Peninsula
by late Monday. The cyclone is expected to be a hurricane at
landfall in Mexico, and the new forecast shows a slightly higher
intensity there based on the new models and favorable conditions.
The models differ on how long the core of Zeta will be inland over
the Yucatan, but in general, it seems likely that significant
weakening won't occur given the storm's expected increasing forward
speed. The overall environmental conditions are anticipated to
remain generally favorable while Zeta moves across the southern Gulf
of Mexico, but there should be an increase in shear when it reaches
the central Gulf and the cyclone will then be moving over the
cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf. The combination of the
stronger shear and cooler waters should cause Zeta to level off
in strength and perhaps weaken slightly before the U.S. landfall.
The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecast
lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western
Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-26 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) but a faster
northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center
of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with
isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches.

Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S.
Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy
rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern
Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in
advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead
to flash flooding and minor river flooding.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-26 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260243
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 83.8W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 83.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-25 23:35


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252333
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 83.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 83.6 West. Zeta has
been meandering recently, but a northwestward motion is expected
over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over
the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-25 21:31


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252127 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Corrected Present Movement

...ZETA STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 83.4 West. Zeta has
been meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves
near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252055
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the overall cloud pattern of Zeta is still not very well
organized, with a lack of distinct banding features, it continues to
generate very intense deep convection mainly over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Moreover, in spite of its ragged
appearance, the storm has strengthened today. Reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon
indicate that, based on adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity has increased to near 45 kt and the
central pressure has fallen to 999 mb. Since the storm will be
moving over the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and in a moist environment with low vertical shear
through Monday, strengthening is forecast and Zeta will likely
become a hurricane before it nears the Yucatan Peninsula in a day or
so. After Zeta moves into the Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear
is likely to increase and oceanic heat content below the cyclone
will diminish, especially when the system approaches the northern
Gulf coast on Wednesday. Therefore, no strengthening is forecast in
2-3 days and Zeta could be weakening by the time it reaches the
northern Gulf coast. However, the intensity forecast is still
subject to significant uncertainty.

The center has been meandering this afternoon, and apparently has
reformed nearer to the deep convection over the southeastern
quadrant. Since this is not considered representative of
larger-scale motion, the system is still considered to be
quasi-stationary at this time. However, the track guidance is in
agreement that Zeta will move northwestward over the next 1-2 days,
passing near or over the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, the cyclone
is likely to turn north-northwestward to northward while it moves on
the western side of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone near Florida. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected when Zeta nears the
northern Gulf coast, due to an approaching shortwave trough. The
track guidance has more than the usual amount of spread at the
72-hour time frame, with the ECMWF and the GFS predictions being
about 300 miles apart near the northern Gulf coast. The official
forecast track lies between these 2 solutions, and is similar to the
previous NHC track. However, given the inherent uncertainties, one
should not focus on the exact forecast track.

Based on the new intensity forecast, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the Yucatan peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western
Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or just below hurricane strength when
it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an
increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252054
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA STRONGER...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.4W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 83.4 West. Zeta has
been meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves
near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 17:56


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251754
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Zeta is
meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta
could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in
Western Cuba on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 15:00


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 251457
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the cloud pattern of the storm is not well-organized and
somewhat elongated zonally, the system is producing very vigorous
deep convection, particularly over the southern portion of the
circulation. Cirrus cloud motions show that the upper-level
outflow is well-defined. The current intensity estimate remains at
35 kt in agreement with Dvorak values from both TAFB and SAB, and
pending another Hurricane Hunter mission into the system this
afternoon.

The center is difficult to locate at this time, and the best
estimate for motion is quasi-stationary. A high pressure area
developing near Florida should induce a general northwestward
motion over the next couple of days. Later, a shortwave trough
approaching from the west is likely to cause Zeta to turn northward
and north-northeastward while it nears the northern Gulf Coast in
72-84 hours. The official track forecast lies between the GFS
solution which is farther east and the ECMWF prediction which lies
farther south and west.

Given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and very high
oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, strengthening
is likely until the center moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula
late tomorrow. Zeta should be near or at hurricane strength when it
approaches the Yucatan. The official intensity forecast for the
next 36 hours is close to the model consensus. After Zeta moves
into the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing southwesterly shear and
diminishing oceanic heat content are expected to prevent
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast over the Gulf is above
the latest model consensus. Although not explicitly shown in the
official forecast, the unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic
conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico could cause Zeta
to weaken by the time the center nears the northern Gulf coast.
However, users are reminded that these intensity forecasts are
subject to uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday,
with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions
could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across
portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,
the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the
Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta could be at or just below hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and could bring
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to
the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.8N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.3N 86.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 21.9N 88.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS TODAY AND
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is
nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move
near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel
late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and
reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta?--s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in
Western Cuba on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 251455
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 83.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 86.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N 88.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 83.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-25 12:00


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 251157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 MPH...0 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8
North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a slow
generally northwestward motion is expected later today. A turn
toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are
forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south
of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of
Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72
hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or
early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and
east-northeast of Zeta?--s track. Across portions of central and
western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are
possible through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-25 09:03


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250900
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Earlier this morning, the tropical cyclone located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea was upgraded to Tropical Storm Zeta at
0600 UTC based on 0314Z ASCAT surface wind data of 32-33 kt
located southeast of the broad center. Since then, a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating Zeta and has found
maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of about 40 kt and reliable SFMR
surface winds of 33-36 kt. Recent satellite classifications from
TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is stationary. Although Zeta has been
steadily losing latitude during the past 12 hours, this has been
primarily due to the broad low-level center reforming closer to the
very intense convection located in the southern semicircle of the
cyclone's large circulation. Satellite trends over the past 6 hours
indicate that a mid-level circulation located about 90 nmi east of
the low-level center is likely imparting a weak southerly component
of motion on Zeta as well. Over the course of the next 72 hours, a
weak shortwave trough currently located over the southeastern U.S.
from the Tennessee Valley southward into the north-central Gulf of
Mexico will continue to move eastward, allowing a low- to mid-level
ridge to steadily build westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and
the central Gulf of Mexico. This will gradually force Zeta on a
northwestward track across or near the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 h and into the central Gulf of Mexico
by 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in very agreement on this
developing 3-day track scenario. Thereafter, however, the models
diverge fairly significantly due to uncertainty in the evolution of
the next steering mechanism -- a trough over the northwestern U.S.
that will dig southward and phase up/merge with a trough off the
southern California and Baja California coasts. Phasing of northern
and southern stream systems is always difficult to forecast,
especially when one of those systems is outside the U.S. upper-air
observing system like the system currently is off southern
California. After the two systems phase in about 48 hours, a
powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to form by 72 h and eject
eastward out of the southwestern U.S., causing the ridge over the
Gulf of Mexico to erode eastward. This will allow Zeta to turn
northward and then northeastward toward the north-central Gulf
coast. The global models remain in poor agreement on the details
of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low, resulting
in model solutions ranging from Louisiana (ECMWF-UKMET-FSSE) to the
Florida Panhandle (HWRF-HMON). The new NHC track forecast is a
little left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and
TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of
motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period,
the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual.

Although the low- and mid-level circulations remain unaligned, the
overall environment for the next 60-72 hours is expected to remain
conducive for at least gradual intensification. After 72 hours,
however, the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to increase
while Zeta moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast,
which should result in weakening before the cyclone moves inland.
The new NHC intensity forecast is a tad higher than the previous
advisory, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance.
While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should
weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded
that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The
cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Zeta is expected to produce tropical storm conditions over
extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night
and early Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Tropical Storm
Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico,
Southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.7N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.2N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 22.9N 89.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 25.4N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 32.0N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-25 08:48


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250845
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
longitude 83.6 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is continuing
to re-organize. However, a slow north-northwestward to northwestward
motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the
west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by
Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba
early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
NOAA aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and
east-northeast of Zeta?--s track. Across portions of central and
western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are
possible through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico by Monday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-25 08:47


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250845
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.5W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.5W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.2N 83.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.9N 84.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.8N 85.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.9N 89.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.4N 90.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 32.0N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 83.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-10-25 05:52


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250550
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Zeta is
currently stationary and is re-organizing. However, a slow north-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume later
today. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward
speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward
motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will
pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into
the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf
of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 to
72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by early
Tuesday. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
investigate Zeta.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico by Monday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-25 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.10.2020

HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 0 40.3N 57.7W 961 55
1200UTC 25.10.2020 12 43.6N 52.0W 964 51
0000UTC 26.10.2020 24 46.7N 42.0W 970 54
1200UTC 26.10.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2020 0 18.8N 83.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2020 12 19.2N 83.1W 1006 26
0000UTC 26.10.2020 24 19.5N 83.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 26.10.2020 36 20.0N 84.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 27.10.2020 48 20.7N 86.0W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.10.2020 60 22.2N 88.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 28.10.2020 72 23.5N 90.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 28.10.2020 84 25.6N 92.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 29.10.2020 96 28.7N 93.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 29.10.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 36.8N 72.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.10.2020 132 34.3N 74.0W 1003 37
0000UTC 31.10.2020 144 34.9N 63.8W 1008 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250403

>

2020-10-25 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 250403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2020

HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2020 40.3N 57.7W STRONG
12UTC 25.10.2020 43.6N 52.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2020 46.7N 42.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL282020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2020 18.8N 83.6W WEAK
12UTC 25.10.2020 19.2N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2020 19.5N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2020 20.0N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2020 20.7N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2020 22.2N 88.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2020 23.5N 90.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2020 25.6N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2020 28.7N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 36.8N 72.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.10.2020 34.3N 74.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2020 34.9N 63.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250403

>

2020-10-25 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250248 CCA
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Corrected timing in Key Message number 3

Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the
estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after
the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery
suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer
to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based
on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide
additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity.

As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system
currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air
data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United
States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As
the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand
westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which
should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that
time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the
southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in
good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement
of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in
significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns
and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model
solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope
between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given
the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread
late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more
uncertain than usual.

If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better
aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive
for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in
the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf.
After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone
moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should
result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through
about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus
aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the
system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users
are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce
significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the
northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal
system by the end of the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
by Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme
western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-10-25 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 250243
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the
estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after
the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery
suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer
to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based
on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide
additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity.

As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system
currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air
data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United
States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As
the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand
westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which
should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that
time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the
southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in
good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement
of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in
significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns
and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model
solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope
between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given
the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread
late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more
uncertain than usual.

If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better
aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive
for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in
the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf.
After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone
moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should
result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through
about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus
aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the
system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users
are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce
significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the
northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal
system by the end of the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
by Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme
western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early
Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-10-25 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 250239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1
West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume
overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest
and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed
by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning,
and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico by Monday evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-10-25 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 250238
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-10-24 23:35


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242333
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.1W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph
(4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early
Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest
with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression is expected to remain south of western Cuba
tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late
Monday before emerging over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and
could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area
on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-10-24 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 242053
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

...2020 PRODUCES YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 83.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Eight was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 83.0
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2
mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early
Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the west-northwest
with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression is anticipated to remain south of Cuba
tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late
Monday before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could
become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through
Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the watch area
on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-24 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 242052
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>