Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ODALYS-20
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060231
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 124.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ODALYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW,
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060231
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ODALYS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW..
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 124.3W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13
km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by
a turn toward to the west-southwest by Friday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Odalys is expected to dissipate over the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060232
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi
of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets
the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the
circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A
pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the
center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of
the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal
26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical
wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the
current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent
any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near
the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken
and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should
continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or
southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the
weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
consensus track model TVCE.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 052054
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over
the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding
the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to
decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has
begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.

As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind
shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as
diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep
central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under
Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and
mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the
next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates
Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant
low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep
convection does not redevelop soon.

The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a
due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is
now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level
northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to
southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track
shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the
cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near
the track guidance consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 052052
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ODALYS WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 123.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight with a turn toward to the
west-southwest beginning tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days and Odalys is expected to become a remnant low this
evening or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 052052
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 122.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 122.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.5N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.2N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.5N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.8N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.2N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 123.1W.
05NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051500Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051508 CCA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

CORRECTED TO HAVE 72 H POINT AS DISSIPATED

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 122.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051503 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast.

Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has
been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops
colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed
low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from
SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has
already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be
held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight
ASCAT data.

The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to
envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C
may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these
should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field
should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The
latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by
36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near
the center.

Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it
decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and
begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A
turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h
following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 051453
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has
been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops
colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed
low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from
SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has
already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be
held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight
ASCAT data.

The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to
envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C
may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these
should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field
should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The
latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by
36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near
the center.

Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it
decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and
begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A
turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h
following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 051451
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 122.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 051451
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ODALYS DECOUPLING FROM ITS CONVECTION...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SHORTLY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 122.9W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 122.9 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
forward motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn
west and then southwest tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours and Odalys is expected
to become a remnant low by Friday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 121.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 121.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.5N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.5N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.9N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.2N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.3N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.6N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 122.4W.
05NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050851
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

Odalys is being blasted by about 35-40 kt of southwesterly shear,
as indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear analysis product as well
as the SHIPS guidance this morning. The deep convection has been
displaced over 60 n mi from the center throughout the overnight
period. Despite this, a recent ASCAT overpass showed numerous 40-45
kt wind vectors, with a few even higher values. Those higher values
were flagged as possibly being rain contaminated, and therefore
were discarded. However, based on the large number of 40-45 kt
values, the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt for this
advisory.

The hostile wind shear is not forecast to abate anytime soon, and
the cyclone will be traversing over waters around 26 degrees C while
entering a drier, more stable environment over the next couple of
days. This should cause any deep convection to gradually decrease in
coverage, while being stripped away from the circulation of Odalys.
The result should be a gradual decrease of the cyclone's strength,
and Odalys could become a remnant low as early as Friday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one due
to the higher initial intensity, and is close to the various
consensus intensity models.

Odalys is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States and western
Mexico. A turn to the west, then west-southwest to southwest is
expected tonight through Friday as the cyclone becomes shallow and
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast track is little
changed from the previous one and lies near the tightly clustered
track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.1N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.5N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 16.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z 15.6N 128.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050851
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050851
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING LATER
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 122.3W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 122.3 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the
west and then southwest tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Odalys is expected to become a
remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.11.2020 0 13.6N 87.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 05.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 121.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.11.2020 0 17.6N 121.4W 1003 39
1200UTC 05.11.2020 12 18.2N 122.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 06.11.2020 24 18.6N 123.7W 1006 30
1200UTC 06.11.2020 36 18.3N 124.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 07.11.2020 48 17.6N 125.6W 1005 26
1200UTC 07.11.2020 60 16.7N 125.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 08.11.2020 72 16.1N 125.9W 1006 22
1200UTC 08.11.2020 84 15.3N 126.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 09.11.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 9.2N 143.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2020 72 9.2N 143.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 08.11.2020 84 9.2N 144.4W 1006 23
0000UTC 09.11.2020 96 9.7N 145.8W 1006 28
1200UTC 09.11.2020 108 10.3N 147.7W 1007 27
0000UTC 10.11.2020 120 11.1N 150.2W 1008 26
1200UTC 10.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 32.6N 28.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.11.2020 120 33.1N 28.5E 1010 25
1200UTC 10.11.2020 132 34.4N 28.9E 1005 29
0000UTC 11.11.2020 144 35.9N 29.0E 1000 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 26.7N 83.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.11.2020 144 27.3N 84.9W 999 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050406

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2020 13.6N 87.9W WEAK
12UTC 05.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 121.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.11.2020 17.6N 121.4W WEAK
12UTC 05.11.2020 18.2N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2020 18.6N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2020 18.3N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2020 17.6N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2020 16.7N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2020 16.1N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2020 15.3N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 9.2N 143.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.11.2020 9.2N 143.0W WEAK
12UTC 08.11.2020 9.2N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 9.7N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 10.3N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 11.1N 150.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 32.6N 28.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.11.2020 33.1N 28.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 34.4N 28.9E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.11.2020 35.9N 29.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 26.7N 83.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.11.2020 27.3N 84.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050406

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 121.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 121.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.9N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.6N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.2N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 121.9W.
05NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 916
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 050236
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk
of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully
exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been
held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity
(CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A
04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this
intensity.

Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone
is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours
or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into
a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant
low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under
the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE.

The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30
kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72
hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C
will also help hasten the weakening process during that time,
resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours,
followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely
follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 050235
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 121.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 050235
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 121.7W
ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 121.7 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight. Odalys is forecast
to gradually slow down and turn westward on Thursday, and move
west-southwestward by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and Odalys is expected
to become a remnant low by early Friday and dissipate over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 120.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 120.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.8N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.7N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.0N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.2N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.3N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 120.9W.
04NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 042036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A
well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible
satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection.
Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT
passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band
north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling,
and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the
initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt.
The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The
storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated
between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level
trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely
generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid
level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h,
resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then
west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement
on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys
becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the
official forecast track.

Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it
is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the
southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35
kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very
dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any
remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow
remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 042034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 042035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 120.7W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 120.7 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. The tropical storm is forecast to
gradually slow down and turn westward by tomorrow and
west-southwestward by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow with
Odalys expected to become a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 041605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2020 13.5N 84.6W MODERATE
00UTC 05.11.2020 13.0N 87.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2020 13.3N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 119.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.11.2020 16.5N 119.2W WEAK
00UTC 05.11.2020 18.0N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2020 18.5N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2020 18.9N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2020 18.6N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2020 17.8N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2020 16.3N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.5N 30.7E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.11.2020 32.5N 30.7E WEAK
12UTC 08.11.2020 32.5N 28.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 31.4N 27.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 31.0N 28.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 31.6N 29.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 33.0N 30.0E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041605

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2020 0 13.5N 84.6W 994 37
0000UTC 05.11.2020 12 13.0N 87.4W 1002 31
1200UTC 05.11.2020 24 13.3N 88.6W 1003 31
0000UTC 06.11.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 119.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2020 0 16.5N 119.2W 1005 32
0000UTC 05.11.2020 12 18.0N 120.9W 1004 38
1200UTC 05.11.2020 24 18.5N 122.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 06.11.2020 36 18.9N 123.5W 1007 29
1200UTC 06.11.2020 48 18.6N 125.1W 1007 28
0000UTC 07.11.2020 60 17.8N 125.6W 1006 26
1200UTC 07.11.2020 72 16.3N 126.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 08.11.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 32.5N 30.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2020 84 32.5N 30.7E 1010 27
1200UTC 08.11.2020 96 32.5N 28.1E 1008 29
0000UTC 09.11.2020 108 31.4N 27.7E 1009 28
1200UTC 09.11.2020 120 31.0N 28.5E 1010 26
0000UTC 10.11.2020 132 31.6N 29.7E 1009 24
1200UTC 10.11.2020 144 33.0N 30.0E 1004 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041605

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.9N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.4N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.6N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.6N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.5N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 119.5W.
04NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 982
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 041444
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud
tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated
low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to
locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of
this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and
TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is
kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT
data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure
of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then.

Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion
315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as
the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over
Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to
its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow
system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer
trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it
comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow
associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US
coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this
evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast
track owing to the slightly further north initial position.

While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic
convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind
shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be
importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation.
This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves
over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity
forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with
gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant
low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 041440
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ODALYS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 119.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 119.2 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn toward the
west and then west-southwest as its forward speed decreases by the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys is forecast
to begin weakening on Thursday and become a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 041439
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 119.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 041212 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Corrected Time Zone Information

Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to
southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection
near the center along with some banding features well displaced to
the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the
northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt.

Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able
to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample
atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning,
the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday,
the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken,
with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3
days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
various intensity guidance models.

Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this
week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the
weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level
northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 041210 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Corrected Time Zone information.

...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 118.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 118.5 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward
to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next day or so. A turn to the west and then
the southwest is forecast by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys should begin
weakening by Thursday, and could become a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.6N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.7N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.4N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.2N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.6N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.3N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 118.7W.
04NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1051
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040852
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020

Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to
southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection
near the center along with some banding features well displaced to
the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the
northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt.

Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able
to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample
atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning,
the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday,
the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken,
with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3
days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
various intensity guidance models.

Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this
week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the
weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level
northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040852
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040852
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020

...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 118.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 118.5 West. Odalys is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward
to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next day or so. A turn to the west and then
the southwest is forecast by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys should begin
weakening by Thursday, and could become a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 002 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.0N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.3N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.5N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.1N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.3N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.6N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 117.4W.
04NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1092
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040241
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020

Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since
genesis earlier today. The cyclone still has a large curved band on
the western side of the storm, but there is little organized
convection to the east of the center. The overall circulation
remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to
southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both
T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these
estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while
it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions.
However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening
should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of
strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The
combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and
more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday
night or early Thursday. The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is
in line with the majority of the guidance.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on
the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
southern Texas and northern Mexico. A continued west-northwest to
northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next
24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the west and then the
southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should
be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update
of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020

...ODALYS COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 117.2W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 117.2 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next day or two. A turn to the west and then the southwest is
forecast by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Modest strengthening is possible overnight, but Odalys should begin
weakening by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040237
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 13.7N 115.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 115.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.2N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.9N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.5N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.5N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 116.3W.
03NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ODALYS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1143
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 032041
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020

The low pressure area well south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula has become significantly better
organized today. A curved band of deep convection is noted to the
northwest of the low-level center, and a second weaker band is
located to its southeast. Satellite-derived wind data indicate the
low-level center is still somewhat broad, but it appears to have
enough definition to justify starting advisories as a tropical
cyclone. Recent ASCAT-B data show numerous 30+ kt wind barbs, with
a couple barbs peaking at 33-34 kt in the eastern semicircle of the
cyclone. Considering known under-sampling issues with this data
source, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is consistent
with a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Thus, the
system has become a tropical storm, and advisories are initiated on
Tropical Storm Odalys.

Weak to moderate vertical wind shear and sufficient oceanic heat
content may support modest strengthening during the next 12 h or so.
By 24-36 h, strong southwesterly deep-layer shear associated with an
approaching shortwave trough to the northwest, along with intrusions
of drier mid-level air, will induce a steady and perhaps rapid
weakening trend. The system is forecast to weaken to a depression by
48 h and a remnant low by 96 h, but this could occur even sooner if
the stronger shear values noted in the SHIPS guidance are realized.
The GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests the system could be
devoid of deep convection as early as day 3 of the forecast period.

The storm?--s estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. A
slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days as Odalys is steered northwestward by a low- to mid-level
ridge centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. Then, the
cyclone should gradually slow down and turn westward as this ridge
weakens due to the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 72 h, the
storm will be steered southwestward by another low- to mid-level
ridge building to its northwest. The track models are in decent
agreement, and the official NHC track forecast lies near the center
of the guidance envelope closest to the track consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 032038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
200 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020

...TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 116.1W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 116.1 West. Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slower
westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast by late this week.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening
is possible through tonight, followed by steady weakening Wednesday
through Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
primarily to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 032038
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 123.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 116.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



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