Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for VAMCO-20
in Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 18N 105E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1012HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 18N 105E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1012HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 106.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE NORTHEASTSIDE OF THE CENTER ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND, DRY AIR AND LOW SSTS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT
HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT03. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 151346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 151200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE
ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 18.1N 106.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 130NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 160000UTC 18.9N 104.9E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 161200UTC 19.3N 104.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 18.1N 106.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 130NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 19.3N 104.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 1006 HPA
AT 18.1N 106.1E VIETNAM MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 18.9N 104.9E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.3N 104.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 18.0N 106.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 152100UTC 18.9N 105.3E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 160900UTC 19.3N 104.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 18.0N 106.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 130NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 19.3N 104.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201115072008
2020111506 25W VAMCO 025 01 295 15 SATL 010
T000 177N 1065E 070 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 183N 1048E 035 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 183N 1037E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 106.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 106.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.3N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 106.1E.
15NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111500 171N1079E 80
2520111500 171N1079E 80
2520111500 171N1079E 80
2520111506 177N1065E 70
2520111506 177N1065E 70
2520111506 177N1065E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 106.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 106.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.3N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 106.1E.
15NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 150746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VAMCO (2022) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000008700
91190

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 17.9N, 106.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT03. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 17.9N 106.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 130NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 151800UTC 18.7N 105.4E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 160600UTC 18.8N 104.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 17.9N 106.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 130NM NORTH 60NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 18.8N 104.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 996 HPA
AT 17.9N 106.6E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 18.7N 105.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.8N 104.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 150446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM VAMCO (2022) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 17.3N 107.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 151500UTC 17.6N 105.5E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 160300UTC 17.7N 103.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 990
HPA
AT 17.3N 107.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 17.6N 105.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 17.7N 103.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 17.3N 107.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 17.7N 103.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201115014421
2020111500 25W VAMCO 024 01 305 07 SATL 060
T000 171N 1079E 080 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 177N 1062E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 181N 1043E 035
T036 181N 1020E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 107.5E.
15NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z,
152100Z AND 160300Z.//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111500 171N1079E 80
2520111500 171N1079E 80
2520111500 171N1079E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.1N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.1N 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 107.5E.
15NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z,
152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 108.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 17.2N 108.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 151200UTC 17.5N 105.8E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 160000UTC 17.6N 103.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 17.2N 108.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 17.6N 103.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 17.2N 108.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 17.5N 105.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.6N 103.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 142246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 142100 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT
POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 16.9N 108.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 17.4N 106.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 152100UTC 17.6N 103.6E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 975 HPA
AT 16.9N 108.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 17.4N 106.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 17.6N 103.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1012 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 16.9N 108.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 17.6N 103.6E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201114195533
2020111418 25W VAMCO 023 01 290 09 SATL 040
T000 167N 1085E 080 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 174N 1064E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 177N 1046E 035
T036 179N 1025E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 108.0E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111406 159N1102E 100
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111418 167N1085E 80
2520111418 167N1085E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 108.0E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141800 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 108.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 16.6N 108.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 151800UTC 17.6N 104.2E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 16.6N 108.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 17.6N 104.2E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 960 HPA
AT 16.6N 108.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.4N 106.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 17.6N 104.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141500 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT
POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 960 HPA
AT 16.5N 108.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 17.2N 106.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 17.3N 104.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 16.5N 108.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150300UTC 17.2N 106.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 151500UTC 17.3N 104.3E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 16.5N 108.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 17.3N 104.3E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201114125817
2020111412 25W VAMCO 022 01 300 09 SATL SYNP 015
T000 164N 1094E 095 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 171N 1074E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 177N 1056E 035 R034 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 180N 1036E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.1N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.0N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 108.9E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z
AND 151500Z.//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111406 160N1102E 100
2520111406 160N1102E 100
2520111406 160N1102E 100
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
2520111412 164N1094E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.1N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.0N 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 108.9E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 141200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z
AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 16.4N, 109.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 16.4N 109.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 151200UTC 17.2N 104.9E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 16.4N 109.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 17.2N 104.9E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 955 HPA
AT 16.4N 109.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 17.1N 107.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 17.2N 104.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140900 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO
NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 16.1N 109.9E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 16.9N 108.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 150900UTC 17.5N 106.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 160600UTC 17.7N 102.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 955 HPA
AT 16.1N 109.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 16.9N 108.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 17.5N 106.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 16.1N 109.9E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 17.5N 106.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 160600UTC 17.7N 102.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201114082704
2020111406 25W VAMCO 021 01 280 11 SATL SYNP 015
T000 160N 1102E 100 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 168N 1082E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 175N 1063E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 181N 1045E 030
T048 181N 1025E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.5N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 109.7E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111406 160N1102E 100
2520111406 160N1102E 100
2520111406 160N1102E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 021 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 16.0N 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.5N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.1N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 109.7E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140600 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.9N, 110.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 15.9N 110.3E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 16.7N 108.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 17.7N 102.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 15.9N 110.3E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 17.7N 102.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 955 HPA
AT 15.9N 110.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 16.7N 108.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.4N 106.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 17.7N 102.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1014 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140300 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE
ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 950 HPA
AT 15.8N 110.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 16.4N 109.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 17.1N 107.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 15.8N 110.8E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 16.4N 109.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 150300UTC 17.1N 107.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 160000UTC 17.3N 104.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 15.8N 110.8E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 17.1N 107.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 160000UTC 17.3N 104.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201114015937
2020111400 25W VAMCO 020 01 280 11 SATL 060
T000 158N 1113E 105 R064 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 095 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 164N 1094E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 172N 1075E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 179N 1057E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 183N 1045E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.4N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.2N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 110.8E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
2520111400 158N1113E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.4N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.2N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.9N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.3N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 110.8E.
14NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.7N, 111.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP
AND LOWER SSTS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 15.7N 111.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141200UTC 16.2N 109.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 160000UTC 17.3N 104.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 15.7N 111.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 160000UTC 17.3N 104.2E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 950 HPA
AT 15.7N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 16.2N 109.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 17.1N 107.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.3N 104.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 132246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 132100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 15.7N 111.9E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 16.1N 110.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 142100UTC 16.9N 108.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151800UTC 17.9N 104.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 132100
WARNING 132100.
WARNING VALID 142100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 950 HPA
AT 15.7N 111.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 16.1N 110.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 142100UTC AT 16.9N 108.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 15.7N 111.9E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 16.9N 108.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 151800UTC 17.9N 104.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201113193640
2020111318 25W VAMCO 019 01 275 10 SATL 020
T000 156N 1124E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 115 SE QD 125 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 159N 1104E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 166N 1085E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 174N 1065E 050 R034 090 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 180N 1046E 030
T072 188N 1032E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.9N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.0N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 111.9E.
13NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z,
141500Z AND 142100Z.//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
2520111318 156N1124E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.9N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.6N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.4N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.0N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.8N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 111.9E.
13NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z,
141500Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.6N, 112.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 15.6N 112.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 15.7N 110.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 141800UTC 16.5N 108.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151800UTC 17.9N 104.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 15.6N 112.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 16.5N 108.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 151800UTC 17.9N 104.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 955 HPA
AT 15.6N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 15.7N 110.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 16.5N 108.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 17.9N 104.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 15.6N 112.9E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140300UTC 15.7N 110.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 141500UTC 16.3N 109.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 151200UTC 17.7N 105.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 131500
WARNING 131500.
WARNING VALID 141500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 965 HPA
AT 15.6N 112.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 15.7N 110.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 16.3N 109.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 15.6N 112.9E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 16.3N 109.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 151200UTC 17.7N 105.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201113133347
2020111312 25W VAMCO 018 01 275 10 SATL 010
T000 155N 1134E 100 R064 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 158N 1114E 095 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 163N 1095E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 170N 1075E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 176N 1058E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 187N 1026E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.8N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.3N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.7N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 112.9E.
13NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111306 154N1144E 80
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
2520111312 155N1134E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.8N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.3N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.0N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.7N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 112.9E.
13NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131200 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE THREE
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (105.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 113.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 15.5N 113.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 140000UTC 15.4N 111.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 141200UTC 16.0N 109.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 151200UTC 17.7N 105.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 15.5N 113.4E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 16.0N 109.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 151200UTC 17.7N 105.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 965 HPA
AT 15.5N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 15.4N 111.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 16.0N 109.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 17.7N 105.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130900 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE THREE
POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000010400
78168

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 15.5N 114.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 15.5N 112.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 140900UTC 15.9N 110.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160600UTC 18.1N 103.8E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130900
WARNING 130900.
WARNING VALID 140900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 15.5N 114.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 15.5N 112.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140900UTC AT 15.9N 110.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2022 VAMCO (2022) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 15.5N 114.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 15.9N 110.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 160600UTC 18.1N 103.8E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201113073622
2020111306 25W VAMCO 017 01 270 11 SATL 030
T000 154N 1144E 075 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 000 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 157N 1122E 075 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 162N 1104E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 168N 1084E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 175N 1065E 045 R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 186N 1032E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.7N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.6N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 113.8E.
13NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 109N1314E 20
2520110906 115N1307E 25
2520110912 123N1299E 30
2520110918 127N1294E 30
2520111000 132N1289E 35
2520111006 137N1280E 40
2520111012 144N1266E 45
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111018 147N1259E 60
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111100 147N1246E 75
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111106 146N1236E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111112 148N1228E 90
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111118 151N1213E 95
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111200 152N1197E 80
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111206 152N1185E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111212 152N1174E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111218 153N1165E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111300 154N1155E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 75
2520111306 154N1144E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.7N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.2N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.6N 103.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 113.8E.
13NOV20. TYPHOON 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130600 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000008700
77414

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.4N, 114.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 15.4N 114.4E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 15.6N 112.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 140600UTC 15.8N 110.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160600UTC 18.1N 103.8E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 15.4N 114.4E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 15.8N 110.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 150600UTC 17.4N 106.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 160600UTC 18.1N 103.8E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.4N 114.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 15.6N 112.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 15.8N 110.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.4N 106.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 18.1N 103.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130300 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 130300
WARNING 130300.
WARNING VALID 140300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.5N 115.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 15.6N 113.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 15.8N 111.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 15.5N 115.2E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 15.6N 113.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 140300UTC 15.8N 111.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 160000UTC 18.2N 104.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 15.5N 115.2E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 15.8N 111.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 160000UTC 18.2N 104.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130000 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE
POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.3N, 115.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 15.3N 115.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 15.4N 113.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 140000UTC 15.6N 111.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 160000UTC 18.2N 104.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 15.3N 115.9E GOOD
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 15.6N 111.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 150000UTC 17.1N 107.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 160000UTC 18.2N 104.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.3N 115.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 15.4N 113.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 15.6N 111.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 17.1N 107.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 18.2N 104.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 122246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 122100 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT
ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 15.2N 116.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 15.4N 113.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 132100UTC 15.6N 111.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 141800UTC 16.8N 108.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151800UTC 18.1N 105.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 15.2N 116.0E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 15.6N 111.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 141800UTC 16.8N 108.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151800UTC 18.1N 105.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 122100
WARNING 122100.
WARNING VALID 132100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.2N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 15.4N 113.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 15.6N 111.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121800 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT
FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 116.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 15.1N 116.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 15.4N 114.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 131800UTC 15.5N 112.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 141800UTC 16.8N 108.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151800UTC 18.1N 105.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 15.1N 116.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 15.5N 112.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 141800UTC 16.8N 108.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151800UTC 18.1N 105.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.1N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.4N 114.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 15.5N 112.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 16.8N 108.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 18.1N 105.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121500 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT
EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 121500
WARNING 121500.
WARNING VALID 131500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.2N 116.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 15.3N 114.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 15.5N 112.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 15.2N 116.8E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 15.3N 114.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 131500UTC 15.5N 112.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 141200UTC 16.3N 109.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151200UTC 17.8N 105.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 161200UTC 19.3N 103.0E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 15.2N 116.8E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 15.5N 112.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 141200UTC 16.3N 109.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 151200UTC 17.8N 105.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 121200 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (117.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 117.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 15.1N 117.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 15.4N 115.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 131200UTC 15.5N 113.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 141200UTC 16.3N 109.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151200UTC 17.8N 105.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 161200UTC 19.3N 103.0E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 15.1N 117.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 15.5N 113.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 141200UTC 16.3N 109.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 151200UTC 17.8N 105.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.1N 117.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 15.4N 115.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 15.5N 113.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 16.3N 109.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 17.8N 105.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 19.3N 103.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 121046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120900 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN
POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 15.2N 117.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 15.2N 115.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 130900UTC 15.3N 113.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 140600UTC 16.0N 110.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 150600UTC 17.6N 106.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 160600UTC 19.3N 103.6E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 120900
WARNING 120900.
WARNING VALID 130900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.2N 117.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 15.2N 115.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 15.3N 113.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 15.2N 117.9E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 15.3N 113.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 140600UTC 16.0N 110.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 150600UTC 17.6N 106.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 118.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 120746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120600 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 15.2N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 15.3N 116.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 130600UTC 15.2N 114.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 140600UTC 16.0N 110.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 150600UTC 17.6N 106.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 160600UTC 19.3N 103.6E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 15.2N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 15.2N 114.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 140600UTC 16.0N 110.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 150600UTC 17.6N 106.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 980 HPA
AT 15.2N 118.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 15.3N 116.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 15.2N 114.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 16.0N 110.5E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 17.6N 106.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 19.3N 103.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 120446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120300 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE ONE NINE
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 15.3N 118.9E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 15.2N 116.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 130300UTC 15.2N 114.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 140000UTC 15.5N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 150000UTC 16.9N 106.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 160000UTC 18.2N 103.8E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 120300
WARNING 120300.
WARNING VALID 130300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 985 HPA
AT 15.3N 118.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 15.2N 116.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 15.2N 114.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 15.3N 118.9E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130300UTC 15.2N 114.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 140000UTC 15.5N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 150000UTC 16.9N 106.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 119.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR, LOWER SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2022 VAMCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120000UTC 15.0N 119.7E
MOVEMENT WSW 17KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121200UTC 15.0N 117.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 130000UTC 15.0N 115.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 131200UTC 15.0N 113.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 140000UTC 15.4N 111.5E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 150000UTC 16.8N 107.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 160000UTC 18.5N 104.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1006HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 15.2N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 15.2N 117.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 130000UTC 15.2N 115.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 140000UTC 15.5N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 150000UTC 16.9N 106.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 160000UTC 18.2N 103.8E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 15.2N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 15.2N 115.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 140000UTC 15.5N 111.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 150000UTC 16.9N 106.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 985 HPA
AT 15.2N 119.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 15.2N 117.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 15.2N 115.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 15.5N 111.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.9N 106.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 18.2N 103.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 112246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 112100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 15.5N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 15.3N 117.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 122100UTC 15.2N 115.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 131800UTC 15.2N 112.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 141800UTC 16.5N 107.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 151800UTC 18.1N 104.3E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980
HPA
AT 15.5N 120.5E LUZON MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 15.3N 117.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 15.2N 115.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2022 VAMCO (2022) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 15.5N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 15.2N 115.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 131800UTC 15.2N 112.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 141800UTC 16.5N 107.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY VAMCO IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 15.1N, 121.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE TWO
ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2022 VAMCO
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111800UTC 15.1N 121.4E
MOVEMENT WNW 18KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120600UTC 15.3N 118.4E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 121800UTC 15.1N 116.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 130600UTC 15.0N 114.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 131800UTC 15.2N 112.3E WITHIN 95NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 141800UTC 16.3N 108.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 151800UTC 18.2N 104.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 970 HPA
AT 15.1N 121.3E LUZON MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 15.3N 118.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 15.1N 116.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 15.2N 112.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 16.5N 107.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 18.1N 104.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE TWO
TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 300 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 970 HPA
AT 14.9N 122.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 15.4N 119.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 15.0N 117.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110900 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE TWO THREE
POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 970 HPA
AT 14.4N 123.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 15.2N 120.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 15.0N 118.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110600 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE TWO THREE
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110300 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR
POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2022 VAMCO (2022) 970 HPA
AT 14.6N 124.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 15.0N 122.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 15.3N 119.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 110000 UTC, TYPHOON VAMCO (2022) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE TWO FOUR
POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 992 HPA
AT 14.4N 126.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 14.4N 124.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 14.6N 122.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 994 HPA
AT 14.3N 127.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 14.3N 125.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 14.4N 123.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 1000 HPA
AT 13.5N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 14.6N 124.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 1000 HPA
AT 13.4N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 14.5N 125.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 14.7N 120.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 14.8N 116.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 15.1N 112.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.5N 108.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 1002 HPA
AT 12.5N 129.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 14.6N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 1002 HPA
AT 12.4N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 14.6N 127.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 14.7N 122.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 14.9N 117.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 14.7N 113.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 15.8N 109.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 12.1N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 14.5N 127.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 111200UTC 14.7N 123.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 121200UTC 14.9N 118.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 131200UTC 14.6N 114.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 141200UTC 15.3N 110.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 1002 HPA
AT 12.1N 130.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 14.5N 127.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 12.1N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 14.5N 127.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 111200UTC 14.7N 123.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 121200UTC 14.9N 118.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 12.0N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 12.0N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 14.5N 127.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111200UTC 14.7N 123.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 121200UTC 14.9N 118.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 131200UTC 14.6N 114.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 141200UTC 15.3N 110.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 12.0N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 14.5N 127.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 111200UTC 14.7N 123.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 121200UTC 14.9N 118.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) 1004 HPA
AT 12.0N 130.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 14.5N 127.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 14.7N 123.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 14.9N 118.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 14.6N 114.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 15.3N 110.1E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 11.8N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 14.4N 127.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 110600UTC 14.9N 124.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 120600UTC 15.0N 119.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 130600UTC 14.7N 114.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 140600UTC 14.8N 111.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 11.8N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 14.4N 127.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 110600UTC 14.9N 124.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 120600UTC 15.0N 119.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25W NWP 201109075557
2020110906 25W VAMCO 001 02 320 11 SATL 060
T000 120N 1309E 025
T012 137N 1295E 040 R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 144N 1281E 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 148N 1264E 080 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 150N 1245E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 148N 1200E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 147N 1156E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T120 148N 1113E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.7N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.7N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.8N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 130.6E.
09NOV20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
599 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2520110800 79N1353E 20
2520110806 82N1348E 20
2520110812 93N1336E 20
2520110818 103N1324E 20
2520110900 112N1316E 20
2520110906 120N1309E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.7N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.0N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.7N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.8N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 130.6E.
09NOV20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
599 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24W (ETAU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 081400. //
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 11.5N, 131.0E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(VAMCO) STATUS. TS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 11.6N, 130.3E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS
PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LOWER SSTS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 11.6N 130.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 14.4N 128.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 110600UTC 14.9N 124.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 120600UTC 15.0N 119.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 130600UTC 14.7N 114.9E 170NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 140600UTC 14.8N 111.0E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2022 VAMCO (2022) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 11.6N 130.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 14.4N 128.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 110600UTC 14.9N 124.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 120600UTC 15.0N 119.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2022 VAMCO (2022) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 11.6N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 14.4N 128.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 14.9N 124.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 15.0N 119.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 14.7N 114.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 14.8N 111.0E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=