Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIVAR-20
in India

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 260900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 26 NOVEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB: SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR WEAKENED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
OVER NORTH COASTAL TAMILNADU

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER NORTH COASTAL TAMILNADU MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 7 KTS DURING PAST SIX HOURS,
WEAKENED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 26
TH NOVEMBER, 2020 OVER NORTH COASTAL TAMILNADU NEAR LAT. 12.6
DEG N AND LONG 79.4 DEG E, ABOUT 85 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PUDUCHERRY AND ABOUT 95 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHENNAI. THE CYCLONIC
STORM \U201CNIVAR\U201D WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND
WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO
A DEPRESSION BY SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/11/26 AT 15 UTC 13.4 N / 78.6 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/11/27 AT 03 UTC NIL (.)

PART- II NIL (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO S OF 2 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF
70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 6
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: E OF 69 DEG E N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 86 DEG E W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: E/NE-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-6.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 90
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: E-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE W OF 84 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)N OF 18 DEG N: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201126012349
2020112600 04B NIVAR 011 01 295 07 SATL SYNP 040
T000 123N 0794E 055 R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 130N 0789E 040 R034 085 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 136N 0783E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.0N 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 79.3E.
26NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112506 112N 816E 60
0420112506 112N 816E 60
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112518 120N 801E 70
0420112518 120N 801E 70
0420112518 120N 801E 70
0420112600 123N 794E 55
0420112600 123N 794E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.0N 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 79.3E.
26NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIMELY
252335Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A WEAKENING TREND FROM A
252049Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC NIVAR IS TRACKING OVER LAND AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, STEADILY WEAKENING UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 24. THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM
REGENERATING OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS
GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201125192458
2020112518 04B NIVAR 010 01 295 10 SATL RADR 050
T000 120N 0801E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 129N 0791E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 136N 0784E 040
T036 140N 0777E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 12.0N 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.9N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.6N 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.0N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 79.8E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
794 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112506 112N 816E 60
0420112506 112N 816E 60
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112518 120N 801E 70
0420112518 120N 801E 70
0420112518 120N 801E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 12.0N 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.9N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.6N 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.0N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 79.8E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
794 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 251550
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 25th NOVEMBER, 2020 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 251200 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 11.4 0N/80.70E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 300/07 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

45 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

251800Z 12.0?N /80.00 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

45 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

260000Z 12.6?N /79.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





18 HRS, VALID AT:

260600Z 13.1?N /79.0?E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

261200Z 13.5?N /78.6?E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 20 KT, GUSTS 30 KT



36 HRS, VALID AT:

270000Z 14.1?N /78.1?E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 10 KT, GUSTS 20 KT



*******

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201125131927
2020112512 04B NIVAR 009 01 295 09 SATL RADR 060
T000 116N 0810E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 125N 0799E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 132N 0792E 045 R034 085 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 140N 0787E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 147N 0776E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.2N 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.0N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.7N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 80.7E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 784
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112506 112N 818E 60
0420112506 112N 818E 60
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112512 116N 810E 70
0420112512 116N 810E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.2N 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.0N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.7N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 80.7E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 784
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES PRESENT IN A TIMELY 251205Z GMI 37 GHZ IMAGE AND THE LOW
LEVEL RAIN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND THE LLCC IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BASED ON A LOWER 250814Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC NIVAR IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST
PRIOR TO TAU 12. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA, TC
NIVAR WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
UNDERLYING TERRAIN. INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 24, ALONG WITH TERRAIN
EFFECTS, WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING AND RESULT IN DISSIPATION
OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
OF 34 NM AT THAT TIME. THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE UKMET SOLUTIONS PROVIDING A NORTHWARD TRACK THAT BRINGS THE
VORTEX BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, IN CONTRAST TO THE REMAINING
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER INLAND.
DESPITE THIS SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS, THIS MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN EFFORT TO OFFSET THE
NORTHWARD BIAS OF THE UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z,
260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 250900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 25 NOVEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 25.11.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 25.11.2020.

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 11 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND
LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 25 TH NOVEMBER, 2020 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 81.7 DEG E, ABOUT 240
KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CUDDALORE (43329), ABOUT 250 KM EAST SOUTHEAST
OF PUDUCHERRY (43328) AND 300 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY COASTS BETWEEN
KARAIKAL AND MAMALLAPURAM AROUND PUDUCHERRY DURING MID-NIGHT OF 25 TH
AND EARLY HOURS OF 26 TH NOVEMBER 2020 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 65-70 KMPH GUSTING TO 80 KTS (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/11/25 AT 15 UTC 11.6 N / 80.3 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/11/26 AT 03 UTC 12.7 N / 79.0 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA (.)

PART- II

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 70 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO S OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 3 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 71
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS TO THE E OF 88 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 88 DEG E: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 86 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG E TO W OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG E TO W OF 92 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 18 DEG N:NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SE/S-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE W OF 88 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 18 DEG N: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
3)N OF 19 DEG N: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
3)N OF 19 DEG N: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
----
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201125075336
2020112506 04B NIVAR 008 01 295 09 SATL 060
T000 112N 0818E 060 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 121N 0805E 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 130N 0796E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 138N 0790E 040 R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 145N 0779E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.1N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.0N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.8N 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.5N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 81.5E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 782
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112506 112N 818E 60
0420112506 112N 818E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 11.2N 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.1N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.0N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.8N 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.5N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 81.5E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 782 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL BANDING IN THE MSI
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 250151Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 62 KTS. TC NIVAR IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE STEERING
RIDGE AND WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 12.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER AS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12
SOUTH OF CHENNAI, INDIA. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC NIVAR WILL
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING
TERRAIN AND INCREASING VWS. THIS COMBINATION OF FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION
OVER LAND BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
OF 60 NM AT THAT TIME. THEREAFTER, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE UKMET SOLUTIONS PROVIDING A NORTHWARD TRACK THAT BRINGS THE
VORTEX BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, IN CONTRAST TO THE REMAINING
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS THAT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER INLAND.
DESPITE THIS SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS, THIS MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN EFFORT TO OFFSET THE
NORTHWARD BIAS OF THE UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z,
252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201125024157
2020112500 04B NIVAR 007 01 335 04 SATL 045
T000 108N 0826E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 117N 0815E 075 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 125N 0805E 070 R064 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 138N 0794E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 145N 0786E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 150N 0761E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.8N 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.7N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.8N 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.5N 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.0N 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 82.3E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 782 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112418 104N 828E 50
0420112500 108N 826E 60
0420112500 108N 826E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.8N 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.7N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.5N 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.8N 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.5N 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.0N 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
782 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF
STORM MOVEMENT IN THE MSI LOOP REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING
CONVECTION FEATURES 242347Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY PGTW/DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8
(61KTS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT
IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, SOUTH OF
CHENNAI AND WEAKEN TO 60 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE
REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA THEREAFTER,
HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A
SPREAD OF 48 NAUTICAL MILES NEAR LANDFALL. THIS AGREEMENT
BECOMES POOR THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCREASES TO 386 NAUTICAL MILES BY TAU 72. THIS INCREASING
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE DUE TO UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH DIVERGE SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. MODEL GUIDANCE
LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
THE UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 242143
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 24th NOVEMBER, 2020 FOR WHICH
FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 241800 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 10.10N/82.10E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 290/03 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z 10.3?N /81.60 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
45 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z 10.6?N /81.20 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
75 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
55 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
18 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z 11.1?N /80.6?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 KT, GUSTS 80 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
75 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
55 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z 11.5?N /80.1?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 KT, GUSTS 85 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
75 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
55 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z 12.5?N /79.0?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
45 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z 13.4?N /77.9?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z 14.3?N /76.8?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 15 KT, GUSTS 25 KT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201124201351
2020112418 04B NIVAR 006 01 305 04 SATL 050
T000 101N 0826E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 106N 0818E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 114N 0806E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 125N 0797E 060 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T048 130N 0792E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 140N 0775E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.6N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.4N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.5N 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.0N 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.0N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 82.4E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
821 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112412 99N 829E 50
0420112418 101N 826E 50
0420112418 101N 826E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.6N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.4N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.5N 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.0N 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.0N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
821 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. ANALYSIS OF STORM MOVEMENT
IN THE EIR LOOP REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACK HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING CONVECTION FEATURES IN
THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 241622Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.8 (59 KTS) AND A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT IT
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, SOUTH OF
CHENNAI AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN
SEA THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH
A SPREAD OF 100 NAUTICAL MILES AT LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, THIS
AGREEMENT BECOMES POOR AS THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGES
TO 420 NAUTICAL MILES BY TAU 72. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IS LARGELY
DUE TO UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH TURN THE
SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND KEEP IT OVER THE BAY OF
BENGAL. MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z
AND 252100Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 241800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 24 NOVEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

CYCLONIC STROM NIVAROVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL(CYCLONE WARNING FOR
TAMILNADU AND PUDUCHERRY COASTS- ORANGE MESSAGE)

THE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 05 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200
UTC OF 24TH NOVEMBER, 2020 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR
LATITUDE 10.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 82.4 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM EAST-SOUTH
EAST OF CUDDALORE, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY AND 410 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO A VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR NEXT 06 HOURS AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS TAMIL NADU AND
PUDUCHERRY COASTS BETWEEN KARAIKAL AND MAMALLAPURAM AROUND
PUDUCHERRY DURING 25TH NOVEMBER 2020 LATE EVENING AS A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 120-130 KMPH GUSTING TO 145
KMPH.(.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/11/25 AT 00 UTC 10.4 N / 81.4 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/11/25 AT 06 UTC 11.5 N / 80.01 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA. (.)

PART- II

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO
S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: E/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 86 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG E TO W OF 92 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 92 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG E TO W OF 92 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 92 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 18 DEG N:NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SE/S-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE W OF 88 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 18 DEG N: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR(.)
--------------------------------------------------------
TOO:-24/2300
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 241615

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1530 UTC 24 NOVEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

CYCLONIC STROM NIVAR OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL(CYCLONE WARNING FOR
TAMILNADU AND PUDUCHERRY COASTS- ORANGE MESSAGE)

THE CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 05 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT
1200 UTC OF 24TH NOVEMBER, 2020 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR
LATITUDE 10.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 82.4 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CUDDALORE, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY AND
410 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO
A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR NEXT 06 HOURS AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS TAMIL NADU AND
PUDUCHERRY COASTS BETWEEN KARAIKAL AND MAMALLAPURAM AROUND PUDUCHERRY
DURING 25TH NOVEMBER 2020 LATE EVENING AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 120-130 KMPH GUSTING TO 145 KMPH.(.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/11/25 AT 00 UTC 10.4 N / 81.4 E MAX WIND 60 KTS CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/11/25 AT 06 UTC 11.5 N / 80.01 E MAX WIND 70 KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA. (.)

PART- II

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 90 DEG E(.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N: E/SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 86 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG E TO W OF 92 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 92 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG E TO W OF 92 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 92 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 18 DEG N:NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SE/S-LY 20/25 KTS TO THE W OF 88 DEG E (.)
2)N OF 18 DEG N: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR(.)
--------------------------------------------------------
TOO:-24/2130
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 241606

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 24th NOVEMBER, 2020 FOR WHICH
FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 241200 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 10.00N/82.40E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 270/03 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z 10.1?N /82.00 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
85 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
60 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
75 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
45 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z 10.4?N /81.40 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
50 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
45 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
18 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z 11.0?N /80.7?E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
75 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
55 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z 11.5?N /80.1?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 KT, GUSTS 80 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
75 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
55 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
50 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:
35 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
30 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
25 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
30 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z 12.3?N /79.2?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
95 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
85 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z 13.1?N /78.3?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z 13.9?N /77.4?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 20 KT, GUSTS 30 KT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201124141653
2020112412 04B NIVAR 005 01 305 04 SATL 060
T000 098N 0828E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 104N 0819E 065 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 111N 0809E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 120N 0799E 080 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 127N 0791E 045 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 139N 0775E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.4N 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.1N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.0N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.7N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.9N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 82.6E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 833
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 96N 831E 45
0420112412 98N 828E 50
0420112412 98N 828E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 9.8N 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.4N 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.1N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.0N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.7N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.9N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 82.6E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
833 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP,
FLARING CONVECTION. ANALYSIS OF STORM MOVEMENT IN THE MSI LOOP REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM TRACK HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING CONVECTION
FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP AND IN A 241304Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. OF NOTE, THIS WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SUBSEQUENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL, IT WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY
TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
INDIA, SOUTH OF CHENNAI. INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL
LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING TO 45 KTS BY TAU 48 AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA
THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 70
NAUTICAL MILES AT LANDFALL. THIS AGREEMENT BECOMES POOR THEREAFTER AS THE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES TO 350 NAUTICAL MILES BY TAU 72. THIS
INCREASING SPREAD IS LARGELY DUE TO UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH TURN THE
SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AT LANDFALL, WITH THE UKMET ENSEMBLE TRACKER
BRINGING THE VORTEX BACK OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BY TAU 60. OVERALL, MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UKMET TRACKS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.8N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.5N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.3N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.0N 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.2N 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 82.6E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS THE LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT ARE EVIDENT IN A 240336Z METOP-B 89GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS),
A 240335Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND THE 40 KTS WINDS
PRESENT IN A 240336Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 929-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. OF NOTE, THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW
FOR INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SUBSEQUENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
THIS INCREASED OUTFLOW, COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE VWS AND SST, WILL
ALOW THE SYSTEM TO FUTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH TIME IT
WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SST THEREAFTER WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
TO 75 KTS BY TAU 36. SHORTLY THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, SOUTH OF CHENNAI.
INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING
TO 45 KTS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER LAND AND
FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY
TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF
REGENERATION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
SPREAD OF 93 NAUTICAL MILES AT LANDFALL, HOWEVER THIS AGREEMENT
BECOMES POOR THEREAFTER AS THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 364 NAUTICAL
MILES BY TAU 72. THIS WIDER SPREAD IS LARGELY DUE TO UKMET MODEL
SOLUTIONS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT AT LANDFALL.
OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS
(WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201124075640
2020112406 04B NIVAR 004 02 270 05 SATL 060
T000 095N 0828E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 098N 0820E 060 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 105N 0809E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 113N 0799E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 120N 0789E 045 R034 100 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 132N 0773E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.8N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.5N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.3N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.0N 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.2N 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 82.6E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
0420112406 95N 828E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 240540
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 24th NOVEMBER, 2020 FOR WHICH
FORECAST IS PREPARED:
PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 240000 UTC
PRESENT POSITION: 10.00N/83.00E
POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM
PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 320/04 KT
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z 10.1?N /82.70 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
80 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
40 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z 10.2?N /82.40 E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
55 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
40 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
18 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z 10.4?N /81.9?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
Page 2
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
80 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
45 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
40 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z 10.9?N /81.2?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
80 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
45 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
40 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z 11.7?N /80.0?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
90 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
80 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:
45 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
45 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
40 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
40 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z 12.5?N /79.0?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
142 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
Page 3
142 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
112 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
82 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:
80 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
80 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
50 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z 13.5?N /77.8?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT
RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:
130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
70 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z 14.3?N /76.9?E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 20 KT, GUSTS 30 KT

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 240550
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 24 NOVEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A. DEEP DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL\u2014(CYCLONE ALERT FOR TAMILNADU AND
PUDUCHERRY COASTS- YELLOW MESSAGE)

A. DEEP DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (CYCLONE ALERT FOR TAMILNADU AND PUDUCHERRY
COASTS-YELLOW MESSAGE) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 03 KTS DURING PAST
06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM NIVAR AND LAY CENTRED AT
0000 UTC OF 24 TH NOVEMBER, 2020 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR
LATITUDE 10.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 83.0 DEG E, ABOUT 410 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY AND 450 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR NEXT
12 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS
TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY COASTS BETWEEN KARAIKAL AND MAMALLAPURAM
AROUND PUDUCHERRY DURING 25TH NOVEMBER 2020 EVENING AS A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS. (.)


12 HRS VALID 2020/11/24 AT 12 UTC 10.2 N / 82.4 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/11/25 AT 00 UTC 10.9 N / 81.2 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA. (.)

PART- II

B. DEEP DEPRESSION WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF ADEN AND
ADJOINING SOMALIA THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF ADEN AND
ADJOINING SOMALIA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT
05 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF 24 TH NOVEMBER 2020 OVER THE GULF OF ADEN
AND ADJOINING SOMALIA NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE
47.0 DEG E, ABOUT 460 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAS BINNAH (SOMALIA).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND WEAKEN
INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E N/NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO S OF 5 DEG N (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 3.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 62 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 62 DEG E:6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:)N OF 18 DEG N: ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
2REST AREA:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 22 DEG N SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 58 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 22 DEG N 6-4 NM (.)
2)W OF 58 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E :
CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)N OF 14 DEG N: NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.) (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.) (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 3.5-7.0 MTR(.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201124021901
2020112400 04B FOUR 003 02 225 03 SATL 025
T000 095N 0833E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 097N 0827E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 101N 0818E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 109N 0807E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 117N 0796E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 127N 0779E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 83.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 83.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.7N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.1N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 10.9N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.7N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.7N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 83.1E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 839
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 97N 835E 40
0420112400 95N 833E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 83.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 83.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.7N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 10.1N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 10.9N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.7N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.7N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 83.1E.
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 839
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232345Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR THE INITIAL
POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, ALIGNING WITH THE PGTW AND
DEMS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 1947Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WAS UNEXPECTED, DESPITE THIS MOTION TC 04B IS STILL
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN WEST OF INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL
TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SPREAD OF 263
NAUTICAL MILES BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS AT TAU 72, LENDING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS, PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU
48 PARTIALLY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 04B
WILL WEAKEN TO 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND THEN WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS
OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201123203725
2020112318 04B FOUR 002 02 270 06 SATL 040
T000 098N 0832E 040 R034 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 101N 0825E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 105N 0816E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 111N 0807E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 119N 0796E 045 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 133N 0779E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 9.8N 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.1N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.5N 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.1N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.3N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.0E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 98N 838E 35
0420112318 98N 832E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 9.8N 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.1N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.5N 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.1N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.3N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.0E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04B NIO 201123132341
2020112312 04B FOUR 001 02 325 05 SATL 045
T000 100N 0839E 035 R034 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 103N 0834E 040 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 106N 0828E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 111N 0820E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 119N 0810E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 136N 0791E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 152N 0771E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 83.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 83.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.3N 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.6N 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.1N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.9N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.6N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.2N 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 83.8E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0420112118 64N 870E 20
0420112200 69N 864E 20
0420112206 75N 858E 25
0420112212 82N 855E 25
0420112218 89N 850E 25
0420112300 92N 846E 30
0420112306 96N 842E 30
0420112312 100N 839E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221521ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 10.0N 83.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 83.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.3N 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.6N 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.1N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.9N 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.6N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.2N 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 83.8E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING. HOWEVER, A 231317Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF
29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 04B IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DIGS
INTO INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VERY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF EASTERN INDIA AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER THE DECCAN
PLATEAU WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B
MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 221530).//
NNNN

>