Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BUREVI-20
in India, Sri Lanka

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201204193306
2020120418 05B BUREVI 014 01 295 02 SATL SYNP 060
T000 090N 0794E 030
T012 090N 0788E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.0N 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 79.3E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COLOMO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 041615Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, WHICH SHOWED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) BASED ON A HIGHER CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), WHICH SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 05B IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHIN A COL REGION WITHIN THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WHILE THE SSTS ARE VERY WARM IN THE BAY OF MANNAR, THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF MANNAR BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET.//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 83N 836E 40
0520120206 86N 830E 40
0520120212 88N 823E 40
0520120218 90N 814E 40
0520120300 91N 808E 40
0520120306 93N 804E 35
0520120312 94N 802E 35
0520120318 94N 800E 35
0520120400 93N 800E 35
0520120406 91N 800E 35
0520120409 89N 798E 30
0520120412 89N 796E 30
0520120418 90N 794E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.0N 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 79.3E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COLOMO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A
041615Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, WHICH SHOWED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DEMS
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) BASED ON A HIGHER
CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS),
WHICH SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 05B
IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHIN A COL REGION WITHIN THE STR LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. WHILE THE SSTS ARE VERY WARM IN THE BAY OF MANNAR, THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20
KTS) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF MANNAR BY TAU 12.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201204135849
2020120412 05B BUREVI 013 01 270 01 SATL RADR 060
T000 093N 0794E 030
T012 091N 0788E 025
T024 091N 0776E 020
T036 090N 0758E 020
T048 090N 0736E 025
T072 094N 0684E 035 R034 160 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 097N 0645E 040 R034 170 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 095N 0615E 045 R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.1N 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.1N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.0N 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.0N 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.4N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 9.7N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 9.5N 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.3E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 951
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 83N 836E 40
0520120206 86N 830E 40
0520120212 88N 823E 40
0520120218 90N 814E 40
0520120300 91N 808E 40
0520120306 93N 804E 35
0520120312 94N 802E 35
0520120318 95N 799E 35
0520120400 93N 797E 35
0520120406 93N 795E 35
0520120412 93N 794E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.1N 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.1N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.0N 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.0N 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.4N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 9.7N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 9.5N 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.3E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 951 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL BANDS
IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE RAIN BANDS PRESENT IN THE
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS) BASED ON A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CIMSS ADVANCED
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS).
TC BUREVI IS TRACKING WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK
THROUGH THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN QUASI-STATIONARY
STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS QUASI-
STATIONARY TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN ASSUME A
WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. THIS
WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA AFTER TAU 12. DURING THIS TRACK OVER
LAND TC BUREVI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 20 KTS BY TAU
24 DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH
THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
EMERGE AGAIN OVER WATER AS IT TRACKS INTO THE ARABIAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
THEREAFTER WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM SST AND
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS AT TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS. OF NOTE, THE
UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS DROP THE SYSTEM VORTEX AFTER TAU
12, WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE WESTWARD TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THIS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z,
050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201204073951
2020120406 05B BUREVI 012 01 270 02 SATL 060
T000 093N 0795E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 093N 0791E 035
T024 092N 0784E 030
T036 091N 0770E 025
T048 092N 0745E 030
T072 094N 0692E 035 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 097N 0648E 040 R034 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 099N 0610E 040 R034 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.3N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.2N 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.1N 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 9.2N 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.4N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 9.7N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 9.9N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.4E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 83N 836E 40
0520120206 86N 830E 40
0520120212 88N 823E 40
0520120218 90N 814E 40
0520120300 91N 808E 40
0520120306 93N 804E 35
0520120312 94N 802E 35
0520120318 94N 799E 35
0520120400 93N 797E 35
0520120406 93N 795E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.3N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.2N 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.1N 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 9.2N 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.4N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 9.7N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 9.9N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.4E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 948 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL BANDS
IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
FROM PGTW AND DEMS AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS. TC
BUREVI IS TRACKING WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK
THROUGH THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN QUASI-STATIONARY
STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS QUASI-
STATIONARY TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN ASSUME A
WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND AND THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST
BUILDS FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT.
THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA AFTER TAU 12 THROUGH TAU 36. DURING THIS
TRACK OVER LAND TC BUREVI IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 25
KTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND
INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE AGAIN OVER WATER AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH LOW (5-10 KTS ) VWS,
WARM SST AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KTS AT TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 160 NM AT TAU 48 THAT
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER. OF NOTE, THE AFUM
TRACK CONTINUES TO DROP THE SYSTEM VORTEX AFTER TAU 48,
WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE WESTWARD TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THIS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID ON
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z,
042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201204020505
2020120400 05B BUREVI 011 01 245 02 SATL SYNP 040
T000 093N 0796E 035 R034 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 093N 0791E 035 R034 090 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 093N 0786E 030
T036 094N 0775E 025
T048 094N 0755E 030
T072 095N 0707E 030
T096 096N 0660E 035 R034 140 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 101N 0619E 040 R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.3N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.3N 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.4N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.4N 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.5N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.6N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.1N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.5E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 83N 836E 40
0520120206 86N 830E 40
0520120212 88N 823E 40
0520120218 90N 814E 40
0520120300 91N 808E 40
0520120306 93N 804E 35
0520120312 94N 801E 35
0520120318 94N 798E 35
0520120400 93N 796E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 9.3N 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.3N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.3N 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 9.4N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 9.4N 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 9.5N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 9.6N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 10.1N 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 79.5E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
202 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
TIMELY 032335Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. FURTHERMORE, THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ONLY DEPICTS A SMALL
REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITING THROUGH A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF FAIR WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
AND MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05B APPEARS TO
HAVE ENTERED A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO ITS VERY SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PALK STRAIT. THIS
WEAK STEERING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS WESTWARD AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO SPEED UP AS IT TRACKS ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. AS IT
MOVES INLAND, TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN, REACHING 25 KTS BY TAU 36.
PRIOR TO TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE ARABIAN
SEA WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY DUE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW VWS, WARM SST, AND IMPROVED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH
40 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED IN THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS. ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, AND GALWEM TRACK
THE VORTEX SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN WEST. CONVERSELY, THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
IS ONLY 70 NM AT TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201203201050
2020120318 05B BUREVI 010 01 270 03 SATL SYNP 050
T000 094N 0798E 035 R034 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 094N 0790E 030
T024 093N 0782E 025
T036 092N 0770E 025
T048 091N 0750E 030
T072 093N 0707E 030
T096 096N 0657E 035 R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 102N 0616E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.4N 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.3N 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.2N 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.1N 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 9.6N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 10.2N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 79.6E.
03DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 83N 836E 40
0520120206 86N 830E 40
0520120212 88N 823E 40
0520120218 90N 814E 40
0520120300 91N 808E 40
0520120306 93N 804E 35
0520120312 94N 801E 35
0520120318 94N 798E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 9.4N 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.4N 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.3N 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.2N 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.1N 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.3N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 9.6N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 10.2N 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 79.6E.
03DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR AND A SLIGHT EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 031636Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TC 05B HAD SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKED ACROSS
NORTHERN SRI LANKA AND THEREFORE THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS
ACROSS THE PALK STRAIT UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN INDIA
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, MODERATE VWS AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
STEERING GUIDANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AT THIS TIME, AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT (GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, INCREASING VWS, AND WARMING SST) WILL ALLOW TC 05B TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. OF NOTE, THE UKMET AND GALWEM MODEL SOLUTIONS DROP THE VORTEX AFTER TAU 24 WHILE THE REMAINING MEMBERS CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. ECMWF DIVERGES AS AN OUTLIER TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 96 AT WHICH POINT ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN. THUS, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 031800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 03 DECEMBER 2020.



SUB: CYCLONIC STORM BUREVI WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER GULF
OF MANNAR



THE CYCLONIC STORM BUREVI OVER GULF OF MANNAR CLOSE TO PAMBAN MOVED
WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05 KTS DURING PAST SIX HOURS, WEAKENED
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 03 RD
DECEMBER OVER GULF OF MANNAR NEAR LAT. 9.2 DEG N AND LONG. 79.1
DEG E CLOSE TO RAMANATHAPURAM DISTRICT COAST, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTHWEST
OF PAMBAN (43363) AND 210 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KANNIYAKUMARI (43377).
THE ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30-35 GUSTING TO 40 KTS (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS
RAMANATHAPURAM AND THOOTHUKUDI DISTRICTS DURING 3RD DECEMBER NIGHT
TO 4TH DECEMBER EARLY HOURS WITH WIND SPEED OF 25-30 GUSTING TO
40 KTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION
(WIND SPEED 20-25 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS) BY 0000 UTC 4TH DECEMBER.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/12/04 AT 00 UTC 8.9 N / 78.0 E MAX WIND 25 KTS
DEPRESSION (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/12/04 AT 12 UTC 8.7 N / 76.8 E MAX.WIND 20 KTS
WELL MARKED LOW (.)

PART- II NIL (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 57 DEG E: NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE S OF 4
DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 70 DEG E : 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO

THE S OF 7 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 56 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 56 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 73 DEG E : 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS TO

THE S OF 21 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 73 DEG E ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 73 DEG E 8-6 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 76 DEG E 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS TO

THE S OF 20 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF69 DEG E TO S OF 13 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF69 DEG E TO S OF 13 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND

THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 89 DEG E: CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 6 DEG
N (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS TO THE

N OF 5 DEG N (.)

2) REST AREA: E/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: E/SE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 13 DEG N :2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC E/SE-LY 10/20 KTS
TO

THE S OF 16 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA : FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 18 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 13 DEG N : 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

2) REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201202130135
2020120212 05B BUREVI 005 01 285 07 SATL 045
T000 088N 0823E 040 R034 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 090N 0808E 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 092N 0794E 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 092N 0782E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 090N 0771E 035
T072 087N 0752E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.0N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.2N 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.2N 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.0N 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 8.7N 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 81.9E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
368 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 83N 836E 40
0520120206 86N 830E 40
0520120212 88N 823E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.0N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.2N 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.2N 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.0N 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 8.7N 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 81.9E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
368 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A
021108Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO 3.0 (45 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH SRI LANKA, WHICH MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
TC 05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRACKS UNDER THE DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN SRI LANKA WITH
FURTHER WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201202073154
2020120206 05B BUREVI 004 01 290 12 SATL 040
T000 089N 0824E 040 R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 092N 0808E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 094N 0793E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 095N 0781E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 094N 0768E 035 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 090N 0750E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 82.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 82.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 9.2N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 9.4N 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 9.5N 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.4N 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.0N 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.0E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 85N 835E 45
0520120206 89N 824E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 8.9N 82.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 82.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 9.2N 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 9.4N 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 9.5N 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 9.4N 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.0N 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 82.0E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST OF COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A
020411Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED
ABOVE PGTW / DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), BASED ON
HIGHER SATCON, ADT ESTIMATES NEAR 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THESE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO HIGH BASED ON A 020411Z ASCAT-B
PARTIAL IMAGE AND 020136Z CFOSAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING 30-35 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL 020014Z
SMAP IMAGE INDICATED MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SURFACE WINDS OF 31 KNOTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
05B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER
THE DOMINANT STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 05B IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 12. NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER NORTHERN SRI LANKA THEN FURTHER WEAKENING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA. TC 05B SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 020440

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 02 DECEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

SUB: CYCLONIC STORM BUREVI OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL (CYCLONE
ALERT FOR SOUTH TAMILNADU AND SOUTH KERALA COASTS: YELLOW MESSAGE)

THE CYCLONIC STORM BUREVI OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 08 KTS DURING PAST SIX HOURS
AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 02 ND DECEMBER 2020 OVER
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 8.4 DEG N AND LONG. 83.4 DEG E,
ABOUT 240 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 470 KM
EASTSOUTHEAST OF PAMBAN (INDIA) AND 650 KM NEARLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KANNIYAKUMARI (INDIA) (.)

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SRI LANKA COAST
AROUND LATITUDE 9.00N, CLOSE TO NORTH OF TRINCOMALEE DURING
EVENING/NIGHT OF 2ND DECEMBER AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A WIND SPEED
OF 45-50 KTS GUSTING TO 55 KTS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS THEREAFTER, EMERGE INTO GULF OF MANNAR AND
ADJOINING COMORIN AREA ON 3 RD DECEMBER MORNING (.)

THE CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 40-45 GUSTING TO 40 KTS WOULD
BE CENTERED VERY CLOSE TO PAMBAN AROUND ON NOON OF 3RD DECEMBER. IT
WOULD THEN MOVE NEARLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH TAMILNADU
COAST BETWEEN KANNIYAKUMARI AND PAMBAN AROUND EARLY MORNING OF 4TH
DECEMBER AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF 40-45 GUSTING TO 50
KTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/12/02 AT 12 UTC 9.0 N / 81.3 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/12/03 AT 00 UTC 9.2 N / 80.2 E MAX.WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART- II NIL (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 68 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE S OF 3
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E : 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 63 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 63 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 73 DEG E : 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 69 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2) REST AREA: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
2) REST AREA: E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NE-LY 20/25 KTS
TO THE W OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 13 DEG N :5.0-7.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: E/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA : FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 17 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 13 DEG N : 5.0-7.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 201202012638
2020120200 05B BUREVI 003 01 315 13 SATL 060
T000 088N 0834E 045 R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 095N 0818E 060 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 097N 0804E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 096N 0796E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 093N 0787E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 090N 0776E 035 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 086N 0761E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 83.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 83.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 9.5N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.7N 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.6N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.0N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 8.6N 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 83.0E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN, HAVING DEVELOPED A CDO, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE WRAPPING INTO THE COMPACT LLCC, AS DEPICTED IN A 012237Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM DEMS, IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG POINT-SOURCE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING STRONGLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KNOTS). SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 05B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS WITHHIN THE BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR OVER CENTRAL INDIA. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, THE WEAKNESS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, ALLOWING TC 05B TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTERWARD AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SRI LANKA NEAR TAU 24, THEN WILL TRACK OVER THE PALK STRAIT AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48. TC 05B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THERE ALSO EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK WHICH ISN'T CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING VWS, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOUTH OF INDIA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM REPRESENTING THE NORTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER COCHIN, INDIA BY TAU 96, WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 BASED ON THE NEAR-TERM TRACK, THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
0520112718 51N 937E 15
0520112800 54N 929E 15
0520112806 56N 923E 15
0520112812 60N 916E 15
0520112818 62N 912E 15
0520112900 62N 909E 15
0520112906 62N 906E 15
0520112912 62N 903E 15
0520112918 62N 900E 20
0520113000 62N 892E 20
0520113006 62N 884E 25
0520113012 62N 876E 30
0520113018 65N 866E 30
0520120100 67N 860E 30
0520120106 70N 854E 30
0520120112 73N 849E 35
0520120118 79N 843E 35
0520120200 88N 834E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 8.8N 83.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 83.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 9.5N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.7N 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 9.6N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 9.0N 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 8.6N 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 83.0E.
02DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING
SYSTEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN, HAVING DEVELOPED A
CDO, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CENTER OF THE SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE WRAPPING INTO THE
COMPACT LLCC, AS DEPICTED IN A 012237Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM DEMS,
IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY STRONG POINT-SOURCE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC, WHICH IS PROVIDING STRONGLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE
TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10
KNOTS). SST VALUES (29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC
05B IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS WITHHIN THE BROAD
EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR OVER CENTRAL INDIA. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS,
THE WEAKNESS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, ALLOWING TC 05B TO
SLOWLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF
SRI LANKA, THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTERWARD AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE
NORTH ARABIAN SEA BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. TC 05B IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SRI LANKA NEAR
TAU 24, THEN WILL TRACK OVER THE PALK STRAIT AND MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF INDIA NEAR TAU 48. TC 05B IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK WHICH
ISN'T CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASING VWS, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN INDIA, WILL LEAD TO STEADY
WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOUTH OF
INDIA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, WITH NAVGEM REPRESENTING
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER COCHIN, INDIA BY TAU 96,
WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF INDIA. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU
24 BASED ON THE NEAR-TERM TRACK, THEN JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z,
022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 011800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 01 DECEMBER 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

SUB: CYCLONIC STORM BUREVI OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
WESTNORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05 KTS DURING PAST SIX HOURS,
INTENSIFIED INTO CYCLONIC STORM \U2018BUREVI\U2019 AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 01ST DECEMBER 2020 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR LAT. 7.9 DEG N AND LONG. 84.8 DEG E, ABOUT 400 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (434180) AND 800 KM EASTSOUTHEAST OF
KANNIYAKUMARI (433770).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SRI LANKA COAST
BETWEEN LATITUDE 7.50N AND 9.00N, CLOSE TO TRINCOMALEE DURING
EVENING/NIGHT (1200-1800UTC) OF 2ND DECEMBER AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH
A WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS (.) IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NEARLY WESTWARDS THEREAFTER, EMERGE INTO GULF OF MANNAR AND
ADJOINING COMORIN AREA ON 3RD DECEMBER MORNING. IT WOULD THEN MOVE
NEARLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH TAMILNADU COAST BETWEEN
KANNIYAKUMARI AND PAMBAN AROUND EARLY MORNING 2100 UTC OF 3 RD TO
0000 UTC OF 4TH DECEMBER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/12/02 AT 00 UTC 8.3 N / 83.4 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/12/02 AT 12 UTC 8.7 N / 81.3 E MAX.WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART- II NIL (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 68 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/20 KTS TO THE S OF 3
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 75 DEG E : 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 63 DEG E: NE/E-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
2)E OF 63 DEG E: NW/W-LY 05/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 73 DEG E : 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: 8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 69 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2) REST AREA: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND
THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
2) REST AREA: E/SE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE/E-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NE-LY 20/25 KTS
TO THE W OF 85 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 13 DEG N :5.0-7.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: E/NE-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA : FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 17 DEG N :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 13 DEG N : 5.0-7.0 MTR (.)
2) REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)
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ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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