Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BONGOYO-20 in , Mauritius from 07 Dec 2020 06:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2020 06:00 UTC

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

11/12 00:46 WTIO31FMEE110032

11/12 00:46 WTIO30FMEE110032

11/12 00:22 WTIO20FMEE110021

10/12 20:55 WTXS51PGTW102100

10/12 20:36 WTXS31PGTW102100

10/12 19:03 WTIO31FMEE101844

10/12 19:03 WTIO30FMEE101844

10/12 18:26 WTIO20FMEE101822

10/12 12:29 WTIO31FMEE101222

10/12 12:29 WTIO30FMEE101222

10/12 12:07 WTIO20FMEE101204

10/12 08:34 WTXS51PGTW100900

10/12 08:28 WTXS31PGTW100900

10/12 06:29 WTIO31FMEE100616

10/12 06:29 WTIO30FMEE100616

10/12 06:06 WTIO20FMEE100605

10/12 00:29 WTIO31FMEE100017

10/12 00:29 WTIO30FMEE100017

10/12 00:12 WTIO20FMEE100011

09/12 19:51 WTXS51PGTW092100

09/12 19:50 WTXS31PGTW092100

09/12 18:27 WTIO31FMEE091817

09/12 18:27 WTIO30FMEE091817

09/12 18:13 WTIO20FMEE091811

09/12 13:11 WTIO31FMEE091254

09/12 13:11 WTIO30FMEE091254

09/12 12:31 WTIO20FMEE091230

09/12 08:33 WTXS51PGTW090900

09/12 08:33 WTXS31PGTW090900

09/12 07:00 WTIO31FMEE090633

09/12 07:00 WTIO30FMEE090633

09/12 06:26 WTIO20FMEE090625

09/12 01:04 WTIO31FMEE090038

09/12 01:04 WTIO30FMEE090038

09/12 00:26 WTIO20FMEE090025

08/12 20:57 WTXS51PGTW082100

08/12 20:16 WTXS31PGTW082100

08/12 18:55 WTIO31FMEE081832

08/12 18:55 WTIO30FMEE081832

08/12 18:44 WTXS31PGTW080900COR

08/12 18:21 WTIO20FMEE081819

08/12 12:59 WTIO31FMEE081224

08/12 12:59 WTIO30FMEE081224

08/12 12:18 WTIO20FMEE081216

08/12 08:45 WTXS51PGTW080900

08/12 08:43 WTXS31PGTW080900

08/12 06:48 WTIO31FMEE080619

08/12 06:48 WTIO30FMEE080619

08/12 06:12 WTIO20FMEE080609

08/12 00:44 WTIO31FMEE080043

08/12 00:44 WTIO30FMEE080043

08/12 00:03 WTIO20FMEE080001

07/12 18:32 WTIO31FMEE071819

07/12 18:32 WTIO30FMEE071819

07/12 18:06 WTIO20FMEE071803

07/12 13:01 WTIO31FMEE071244

07/12 13:01 WTIO30FMEE071244

07/12 12:24 WTIO20FMEE071222CCA

07/12 12:19 WTIO20FMEE071218

07/12 07:01 WTIO31FMEE070645

07/12 07:01 WTIO30FMEE070645

07/12 06:23 WTIO20FMEE070621

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110032
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/3/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 75.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SO: 465 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SO: 335 NO: 0

24H: 12/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 12/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A FINI PAR S'ESSOUFFLER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD, BONGOYO EST PAR CONSEQUENT DECLASSE EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
AVEC DES VENTS MAX ESTIMES A 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

DEPUIS 18Z, LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR REPRIS SON DEPLACEMENT ATTENDU
VERS L'OUEST SELON DES FIX TOUTEFOIS ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINS DE LA
NUIT. LE MINIMUM EN COURS DE COMBLEMENT VA AINSI POURSUIVRE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
48H, SUR LA FACADE NORD DE L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL, AVANT D'EVOLUER
EN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES AU-DELA.

IL N'Y A PAS AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF A ATTENDRE EN TERMES DE VENT
ET DE PLUIE SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DES MASCAREIGNES.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.
IL CONTINUE D'ETRE SUIVIE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS VIA LE
BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN AWIO20 FMEE EMIS A 12Z.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/3/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 75.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 465 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 335 NW: 0

24H: 2020/12/12 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2020/12/12 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY RUN OUT OF STEAM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, BONGOYO IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

SINCE 18Z, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED ITS EXPECTED WESTWARD
MOVEMENT ACCORDING TO THE STILL UNCERTAIN NIGHT FIX. THE FILLED-UP
LOW WILL THUS CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, BEFORE EVOLVING
INTO A LOW LEVELS TROUGH BEYOND.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO BE EXPECTED IN TERMS OF WIND AND
RAIN ON THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
FURTHER INFORMATION FOR THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE AWIO20 FMEE
DAILY BULLETIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110021
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/12/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 11/12/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 3 (BONGOYO) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 75.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
RESIDUAL SQUALLS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/12 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201210201228
2020121018 02S BONGOYO 008 02 225 08 SATL 060
T000 222S 0753E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 221S 0734E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 218S 0709E 030
T036 217S 0681E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.7S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 74.8E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
920 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 101609Z ASCAT-A PASS WHICH SHOWED THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). TC 02S HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 02S WILL SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK, AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND COOL (25 DEG C) SSTS, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
0220112612 112S 913E 15
0220112618 115S 918E 15
0220112700 119S 921E 15
0220112706 124S 924E 20
0220112712 129S 926E 25
0220112718 131S 930E 20
0220112800 134S 929E 20
0220112806 132S 922E 20
0220112812 132S 915E 20
0220112818 127S 914E 20
0220112900 123S 915E 20
0220112906 120S 915E 20
0220112912 116S 909E 20
0220112918 112S 902E 25
0220113000 109S 896E 25
0220113006 109S 890E 25
0220113012 110S 884E 25
0220113018 109S 877E 25
0220120100 106S 871E 25
0220120106 103S 865E 20
0220120112 98S 854E 20
0220120118 90S 842E 20
0220120200 85S 835E 20
0220120206 79S 830E 20
0220120212 76S 832E 20
0220120218 75S 838E 20
0220120300 74S 847E 20
0220120306 69S 849E 20
0220120312 68S 852E 20
0220120318 68S 854E 25
0220120400 69S 857E 25
0220120406 70S 860E 20
0220120412 72S 862E 25
0220120418 74S 864E 25
0220120500 76S 865E 25
0220120506 82S 867E 25
0220120512 88S 868E 25
0220120518 95S 867E 25
0220120600 107S 864E 30
0220120606 116S 855E 30
0220120612 124S 846E 30
0220120618 132S 837E 30
0220120700 142S 830E 35
0220120706 146S 819E 35
0220120712 151S 809E 40
0220120718 155S 800E 45
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120906 203S 763E 50
0220120906 203S 763E 50
0220120912 206S 762E 45
0220120918 208S 761E 40
0220121000 209S 762E 40
0220121006 213S 760E 40
0220121012 216S 759E 35
0220121018 222S 753E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.7S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 74.8E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
920 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL
101609Z ASCAT-A PASS WHICH SHOWED THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH THE
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
TC 02S HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AS THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 02S WILL SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK, AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS,
AND COOL (25 DEG C) SSTS, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 36.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101844
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 76.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SO: 465 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

24H: 11/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

36H: 12/12/2020 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 12/12/2020 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

LES DONNEES MICO-ONDES DE FIN DE JOURNEE ET LA PASS ASCAT-A DE 1607Z
(CORRIGEE DES MAUVAISES LEVEES D'AMBIGUITES DIRECTIONNELLES DU VENT)
ONT MONTRE QUE LE CENTRE, ALLONGE, EST LOCALISE PLUS A L'EST. IL A
GLOBALEMENT LENTEMENT DERIVE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD AU COURS
DES DERNIERES 24H. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLE AVEC UN CENTRE PLUS ELOIGNE DE LA CONVECTION COMPARE A IL Y
A 24H. MALGRE CELA LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE PERSISTANTE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 35 KT EN RAISON DE
L'ASCAT-A QUI MONTRE ENCORE DES VENTS A 35-37 KT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

BONGOYO N'A PAS ENCORE PRIS SON VIRAGE ATTENDU VERS L'OUEST SUR LA
FACADE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. CELA NE SAURAIT
MAINTENANT TARDER CAR L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST TOUJOURS PREVU RESTER
HOSTILE A UNE REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. BONGOYO DEVRAIT SOUS PEU
PERDRE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PERSISTANTE DANS SON DEMI-CERCLE SUD ET
EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE PUIS EN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES
D'ICI DEUX A TROIS JOURS.

AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT
ET DE PLUIE SUR LES TERRES HABITEES DES MASCAREIGNES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101844
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 76.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 465 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

24H: 2020/12/11 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

36H: 2020/12/12 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2020/12/12 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

EVENING MICROWAVE DATA AND THE 1607Z ASCAT-A PASS (CORRECTED FOR POOR
RESOLUTION OF WIND DIRECTION AMBIGUITY) SHOWED THAT THE CENTER,
ELONGATED, IS LOCATED FURTHER EAST. IN FACT, IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING
SLOWLY IN A GENERAL SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM STILL PRESENTS A SHEAR CONFIGURATION WITH A CENTER FARTHER
AWAY FROM CONVECTION COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. DESPITE THIS, DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT DUE TO THE ASCAT-A WHICH STILL SHOWS
WINDS AT 35-37 KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BONGOYO HAS NOT YET TAKEN ITS EXPECTED WESTWARD TURN ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL NOT BE LONG NOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE TO A RESUMPTION
OF INTENSIFICATION. BONGOYO IS EXPECTED TO LOSE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT LOW AND
THEN INTO A LOW LEVELS TROUGH WITHIN TWO TO THREE DAYS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK, THE REMNANTS OF BONGOYO ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN ON
THE MASCARENE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101822
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/12/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/12/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 76.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 06 UTC:
21.2 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

24H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED EASTWARDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
WARNING POSITION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101222
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 74.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/12/2020 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 205 NO: 65

24H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 55

36H: 12/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55

48H: 12/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDE EFFICACES, IL EST DIFFICILE DE
LOCALISER PRECISEMENT UN CENTRE POUR BONGOYO. D'AILLEUR, LA STRUCTURE
EST CERTAINEMENT TRES ALLONGA E RESSEMBLANT PLUS A UNE ZONE PERTURBA
E.
AU VUE DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, IL EST DIFFICILE DE MAINTENIR
DES VENTS SUPA RIEURS A 35KT. L'AIR SEC, LE CISAILLEMENT ET
L'ABSENCE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE CONDUISENT A UNE FIN TRES PROCHE
POUR BONGOYO.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TRAJECTOIRE, BONGOYO POURSUIT SON CHEMIN VERS
L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT GRADUELLEMENT AU CONTACT DES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES. CETTE ORIENTATION S'EXPLIQUE PAR L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME QUI CONDUIT A UN ABAISSEMENT DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AU NIVEAU DES
BASSES COUCHES. LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER EN TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, CONTINUANT SA COURSE VERS LES MASCAREIGNES
SANS RISQUE DE RA INTENSIFICATION. AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE
ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS AVOIR
D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES TERRES
HABITEES DES MASCAREIGNES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/11 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 205 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 55

36H: 2020/12/12 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55

48H: 2020/12/12 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5+

IN THE ABSENCE OF EFFECTIVE MICROWAVE DATA, IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY LOCATE A CENTER FOR BONGOYO. MOREOVER, THE STRUCTURE IS
CERTAINLY VERY ELONGATED, LOOKING MORE LIKE A ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. DUE TO THE CLOUDY CONFIGURATION, IT IS DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN
WINDS ABOVE 35KT. DRY AIR, SHEAR AND LACK OF OCEAN POTENTIAL LEAD TO
A VERY CLOSE END FOR BONGOYO.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK, BONGOYO CONTINUES ITS WAY WESTWARD, GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING IN CONTACT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS
ORIENTATION CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
LEADS TO A LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A LOWLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
CONTINUING ITS COURSE TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS WITHOUT ANY RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION. IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK, THE
BONGOYO REMNANT LOW SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF
WIND AND RAIN ON THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101204
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/12/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/12/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 00 UTC:
21.4 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201210075715
2020121006 02S BONGOYO 007 02 205 04 SATL 060
T000 213S 0760E 040 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 214S 0747E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 213S 0734E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 211S 0715E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.4S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 75.7E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
876 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0220112612 112S 913E 15
0220112618 115S 918E 15
0220112700 119S 921E 15
0220112706 124S 924E 20
0220112712 129S 926E 25
0220112718 131S 930E 20
0220112800 134S 929E 20
0220112806 132S 922E 20
0220112812 132S 915E 20
0220112818 127S 914E 20
0220112900 123S 915E 20
0220112906 120S 915E 20
0220112912 116S 909E 20
0220112918 112S 902E 25
0220113000 109S 896E 25
0220113006 109S 890E 25
0220113012 110S 884E 25
0220113018 109S 877E 25
0220120100 106S 871E 25
0220120106 103S 865E 20
0220120112 98S 854E 20
0220120118 90S 842E 20
0220120200 85S 835E 20
0220120206 79S 830E 20
0220120212 76S 832E 20
0220120218 75S 838E 20
0220120300 74S 847E 20
0220120306 69S 849E 20
0220120312 68S 852E 20
0220120318 68S 854E 25
0220120400 69S 857E 25
0220120406 70S 860E 20
0220120412 72S 862E 25
0220120418 74S 864E 25
0220120500 76S 865E 25
0220120506 82S 867E 25
0220120512 88S 868E 25
0220120518 95S 867E 25
0220120600 107S 864E 30
0220120606 116S 855E 30
0220120612 124S 846E 30
0220120618 132S 837E 30
0220120700 142S 830E 35
0220120706 146S 819E 35
0220120712 151S 809E 40
0220120718 155S 800E 45
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120906 203S 763E 50
0220120906 203S 763E 50
0220120912 205S 761E 45
0220120918 206S 761E 40
0220121000 209S 762E 40
0220121006 213S 760E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.4S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 75.7E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
876 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY-DECAYING CONVECTION. A
100041Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT WITH EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING. A
100341Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH
OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA AND A 100222Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS).
TC 02S HAS SLOWED AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 02S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOL SST (25C) AND
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100616
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 75.5 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/12/2020 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 55

36H: 11/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 55

48H: 12/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 55

60H: 12/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-

PAS DE SURPRISE AU COURS DE CES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE BONGOYO CONTINUENT DE DEGRADER SA STRUCTURE
NUAGEUSE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0340UTC MONTRE UNE CIRCULATION QUI
S'ALLONGE AVEC UN CENTRE QUI EST DIFFICILE A LOCALISER MAIS LE
PLACANT EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE CISAILLEE. DES
VENTS DE 40KT SONT ENCORE NOTABLES DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DE
BONGOYO.

BONGOYO ENTAME SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT
GRADUELLEMENT AU CONTACT DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. CECI
S'EXPLIQUE PAR L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME QUI CONDUIT A UN
ABAISSEMENT DU FLUX DIRECTEUR AU NIVEAU DES BASSES COUCHES. UNE
CERTAINE INCERTITUDE PERSISTE TOUTEFOIS SUR LA VITESSE DE REPRISE
DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST, LAISSANT DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES DE L'ORDRE DE 6 HEURES.

SANS RISQUE D'INTENSIFICATION, LE SYSTEME PREND PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE
FORME TRES ATTENUEE. AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS AVOIR D'IMPACT
SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES TERRES HABITEES
DES MASCAREIGNES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100616
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/10 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 55

36H: 2020/12/11 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 55

48H: 2020/12/12 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/12 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-

NOT SURPRISES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, BONGOYO'S ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DEGRADE ITS CLOUD PATTERN. THE 0340UTC ASCAT SWATH SHOWS
A LENGTHENING CIRCULATION WITH A CENTER THAT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
BUT PLACING IT AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SHEARED CONVECTIVE
MASS. WINDS OF 40KT ARE STILL NOTICEABLE IN BONGOYO'S WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

BONGOYO BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TRACK BY GRADUALLY ACCELERATING IN
CONTACT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS IS EXPLAINED BY THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH LEADS TO A LOWERING OF THE STEERING
FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS, HOWEVER, ON THE
SPEED OF THE WESTERN FLOW, LEAVING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE OF AROUND 6 HOURS.

WITH NO RISK OF INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY TAKING ON A
VERY ATTENUATED FORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK, THE BONGOYO
REMNANT LOW SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND
RAIN ON THE MASCARENE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/12/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/12/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 18 UTC:
21.3 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 06 UTC:
21.0 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100017
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 75.7 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/12/2020 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 280 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 65

24H: 11/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 55

36H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 55

48H: 12/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 55

60H: 12/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 13/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0+

LA STRUCTURE DE BONGOYO CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER DANS DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES. L'IMAGE SSMI DE 2219Z MONTRE QUE LA
CIRCULATION PRESENTE DES SIGNES D'ELONGATION, AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI
NE SE DECLENCHE PLUS QUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

BONGOYO RALENTIT DEPUIS CES DERNIERES HEURES ET DEVRAIT BIENTOT
REPRENDRE UN MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT GRADUELLEMENT AU
CONTACT DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. CECI S'EXPLIQUE PAR
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME QUI CONDUIT A UN ABAISSEMENT DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR. CEPENDANT, DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING DANS LA REPRISE DU
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST SONT APPARUES ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, CE
QUI SUGGERE UNE INCERTITUDE MODEREE LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

SOUS UNE FORME TRES ATTENUEE PAR LA SUITE ET AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS
AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100017
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 280 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/11 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 55

36H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 55

48H: 2020/12/12 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/12 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2020/12/13 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0+

BONGOYO'S STRUCTURE KEEPS ON DETERIORATING WITHIN UNAFVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. 2219Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE
CIRCULATION SHOWS SIGNS OF ELONGATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
TRIGGERING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

BONGOYO HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN SINCE THE LAST HOURS AND SHOULD RESUME
A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, GRADUALLY ACCELERATING IN CONTACT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS EXPLAINED BY THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO A LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, SOME
DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS WESTWARD ACCELERATION HAVE
EMERGED AMONGTS THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS A MODERATE
ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

IN A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THEREAFTER AND GIVEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED
TRACK, THE REMNANT OF BONGOYO SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 100011
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/12/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/12/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 12 UTC:
21.0 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/11 AT 00 UTC:
20.9 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201209191547
2020120918 02S BONGOYO 006 02 225 03 SATL 060
T000 207S 0759E 040 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 209S 0754E 035 R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 211S 0740E 035 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 210S 0715E 030
T048 209S 0685E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.7S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 75.8E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
840 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE IMPACT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 091658Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS, WHICH CAPTURED THE CENTER AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, AS AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF DVORAK AND SCATTEROMETER ESTIMATES INCLUDING A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF ADT 3.8 AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-C PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
TC BONGOYO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A SHIFT. THE STRONG STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS BEING DECAPITATED BY SHEAR, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW COMING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKIN THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THROUGH TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE, THEREAFTER AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO A NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH TAU 48, AND AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CORE, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0220112612 112S 913E 15
0220112618 115S 918E 15
0220112700 119S 921E 15
0220112706 124S 924E 20
0220112712 129S 926E 25
0220112718 131S 930E 20
0220112800 134S 929E 20
0220112806 132S 922E 20
0220112812 132S 915E 20
0220112818 127S 914E 20
0220112900 123S 915E 20
0220112906 120S 915E 20
0220112912 116S 909E 20
0220112918 112S 902E 25
0220113000 109S 896E 25
0220113006 109S 890E 25
0220113012 110S 884E 25
0220113018 109S 877E 25
0220120100 106S 871E 25
0220120106 103S 865E 20
0220120112 98S 854E 20
0220120118 90S 842E 20
0220120200 85S 835E 20
0220120206 79S 830E 20
0220120212 76S 832E 20
0220120218 75S 838E 20
0220120300 74S 847E 20
0220120306 69S 849E 20
0220120312 68S 852E 20
0220120318 68S 854E 25
0220120400 69S 857E 25
0220120406 70S 860E 20
0220120412 72S 862E 25
0220120418 74S 864E 25
0220120500 76S 865E 25
0220120506 82S 867E 25
0220120512 88S 868E 25
0220120518 95S 867E 25
0220120600 107S 864E 30
0220120606 116S 855E 30
0220120612 124S 846E 30
0220120618 132S 837E 30
0220120700 142S 830E 35
0220120706 146S 819E 35
0220120712 151S 809E 40
0220120718 155S 800E 45
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120906 203S 763E 50
0220120906 203S 763E 50
0220120912 205S 761E 45
0220120918 207S 759E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 20.7S 75.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 75.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 75.8E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
840 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE IMPACT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH MODERATE CONVECTION SHEARED TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 091658Z
PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS, WHICH CAPTURED THE CENTER AND THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, AS AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF DVORAK AND SCATTEROMETER
ESTIMATES INCLUDING A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF ADT 3.8 AND
A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ASCAT-C PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
TC BONGOYO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A SHIFT. THE STRONG
STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS
BEING DECAPITATED BY SHEAR, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW
COMING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKIN THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOL (25-26
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THROUGH TAU 12 THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE, THEREAFTER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING PATTERN, THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS TO A NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH TAU
48, AND AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL CORE, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN, FULLY DISSIPATING
BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091817
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 75.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SO: 260 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 240 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 10/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 55

36H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 55

48H: 11/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 185 NO: 55

60H: 12/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SO: 120 NO: 55

72H: 12/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SO: 325 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE CONTINUE D'AFFAIBLIR LA STRUCTURE DE
BONGOYO, DONT LA CONVECTION EST MAINTENANT REJETEE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST. CELA EST ILLUSTRE PAR LES IMAGES MW AMSU-B DES PASSES DE
1326Z ET 1603Z. LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION EST ENCORE SITUE SOUS LES
CIRRUS, CE QUI REND SA LOCALISATION RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE. LA PASSE
SCATSAT1 DE 1431Z A PERMIS UNE REACTUALISATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT
ET A REVELE UNE STRUCTURE DISSYMETRIQUE. EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE
DVORAK DU CMRS, CES DONNEES ONT EGALEMENT PERMIS DE RETROGRADER
BONGOYO AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ACTUELLEMENT EN COURS DEVRAIT ETRE DEFINITIF POUR
CE SYSTEME, QUI VA CONNAITRE UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE, SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPO ET EVOLUANT SUR DES EAUX TROP FRAICHES.
AVEC UN COEUR CHAUD QUI SE DILUE RAPIDEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
PROGRESSIVEMENT DEVENIR UNE DA PRESSION RA SIDUELLE DANS LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE PHENOMENE BAROCLINE ET D'EFFET
DE GRADIENT DE PRESSIONS AVEC L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL, DES VENTS DE
FORCE GRAND FRAIS POURRAIENT ETRE PRESENTS DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD A L'EST DE 60E.

BONGOYO RALENTIT DEPUIS CES DERNIERES HEURES ET VA REPRENDRE UN
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT GRADUELLEMENT AU CONTACT DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. CECI S'EXPLIQUE PAR L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME QUI CONDUIT A UN ABAISSEMENT DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. CEPENDANT,
DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING DANS LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST
SONT APPARUES ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES, CE QUI SUGGERE UNE
INCERTITUDE MODEREE LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

SOUS UNE FORME TRES ATTENUEE PAR LA SUITE ET AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS
AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091817
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 335 SW: 260 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/10 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/10 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 55

36H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 55

48H: 2020/12/11 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 185 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/12 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/12 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SW: 325 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

THE UPPER SHEAR KEEPS ON AFFECTING BONGOYO'S STRUCTURE. THE
CONVECTION IS NOW ONLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
THIS IS WELL ILLUSTRATED BY THE AMSU-B SWATH OF 1326Z AND 1603Z. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS CURRNTLY STILL LOCATED UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS,
MAKING ITS LOCALISATION RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE 1431Z SCATSAT1 SWATH
ALLOWED FOR AN UPDATE OF THE WIND EXTENSIONS AND REVEALED AN
ASYMETRIC WIND STRUCTURE. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RSMC DVORAK ANALYSIS,
THIS DATA ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO CONFIRM THE DOWNGRADE OF BONGOYO TO THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

THE WEAKENING TREND KEEPS ON AND SHOULD BE DEFINITIVE FOR THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR AND WATERS COOLER THAN 26AOC.
WITH A WARM CORE THAT IS RAPIDLY DILUTING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD REMAIN PRESENT
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE EAST OF 60E.

BONGOYO HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN SINCE THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
RESUME A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, GRADUALLY ACCELERATING IN CONTACT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS EXPLAINED BY THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO A LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER,
SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THIS WESTWARD ACCELERATION
HAVE EMERGED AMONGTS THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. THIS SUGGESTS A
MODERATE ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY.

IN A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THEREAFTER AND GIVEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED
TRACK, THE REMNANT OF BONGOYO SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091811
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/12/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 18 UTC:
20.5 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091254
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/3/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 76.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 185 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 10/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SO: 260 NO: 95

36H: 11/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

48H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

60H: 12/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 12/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

LA STRUCTURE DE BONGOYO SE DETERIORE FRANCHEMENT. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME A CLAIREMENT EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN
CISAILLEMENT AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE
MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE DE BASSE COUCHE EST EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE RESIDUELLE, PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
L'INTENSITE DE BONGOYO EST ESTIME A 50 KT PAR INERTIE DU CHAMP DE
VENT.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST ACTUELLEMENT EN COURS ET SERA DEFINITIF POUR CE
SYSTEME, QUI VA CONNAITRE UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE, SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPO ET EVOLUANT DUR DES EAUX TROP FRAICHES.
AVEC UN COEUR CHAUD QUI SE DILUE RAPIDEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
PROGRESSIVEMENT A VOLUER EN DA PRESSION RA SIDUELLE DANS LES DEUX
PROCHAINS JOURS. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE PHENOMENE BAROCLINE ET D'EFFET
DE GRADIENT DE PRESSIONS AVEC L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL, DES VENTS DE
FORCE GRAND FRAIS POURRAIENT ETRE PRESENTS DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD A L'EST DE 60E.

BONGOYO RALENTIT DEPUIS CES DERNIERES HEURES ET VA REPRENDRE UN
MOUVEMENT VERS L'OUEST EN ACCA LA RANT GRADUELLEMENT AU CONTACT DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. CECI S'EXPLIQUE PAR L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DU SYSTEME QUI CONDUIT A UN ABAISSEMENT DU FLUX DIRECTEUR.
AINSI, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT REDRESSER SON CAP EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST.

SOUS UNE FORME TRES ATTENUEE PAR LA SUITE ET AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS
AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 76.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 59 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/10 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 185 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 120 SW: 260 NW: 95

36H: 2020/12/11 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2020/12/12 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2020/12/12 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

THE STRUCTURE OF BONGOYO IS DETERIORING FRANKLY. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SHIFTED TO A SHEAR CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS CENTER IS AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION, PRESENT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE BONGOYO INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 50 KT DUE
TO THE INERTIA OF THE WIND FIELD.

THE WEAKENING TREND IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
DEFINITIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE A SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS, AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER COOL
WATERS.
WITH A WARM CORE THAT IS RAPIDLY DILUTING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BAROCLINIC PHENOMENON AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE
PRESENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE EAST OF 60E.

BONGOYO HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN SINCE THE LAST FEW HOURS AND WILL
RESUME A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, GRADUALLY ACCELERATING IN CONTACT WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS EXPLAINED BY THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO A LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW.
THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH LEADS TO A LOWERING
OF THE STEERING FLOW. THUS, THE STORM SHOULD STRAIGHTEN ITS COURSE IN
A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION.

IN A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THEREAFTER AND GIVEN THE CURRENT PROJECTED
TRACK, THE REMNANT OF BONGOYO SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 091230
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/12/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 76.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 12 UTC:
20.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201209072419
2020120906 02S BONGOYO 005 02 215 08 SATL 060
T000 205S 0760E 045 R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 210S 0752E 040 R034 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 211S 0740E 035 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 211S 0723E 035 R034 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 211S 0701E 035 R034 020 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD
T072 210S 0641E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.8E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
829 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0220112612 112S 913E 15
0220112618 115S 918E 15
0220112700 119S 921E 15
0220112706 124S 924E 20
0220112712 129S 926E 25
0220112718 131S 930E 20
0220112800 134S 929E 20
0220112806 132S 922E 20
0220112812 132S 915E 20
0220112818 127S 914E 20
0220112900 123S 915E 20
0220112906 120S 915E 20
0220112912 116S 909E 20
0220112918 112S 902E 25
0220113000 109S 896E 25
0220113006 109S 890E 25
0220113012 110S 884E 25
0220113018 109S 877E 25
0220120100 106S 871E 25
0220120106 103S 865E 20
0220120112 98S 854E 20
0220120118 90S 842E 20
0220120200 85S 835E 20
0220120206 79S 830E 20
0220120212 76S 832E 20
0220120218 75S 838E 20
0220120300 74S 847E 20
0220120306 69S 849E 20
0220120312 68S 852E 20
0220120318 68S 854E 25
0220120400 69S 857E 25
0220120406 70S 860E 20
0220120412 72S 862E 25
0220120418 74S 864E 25
0220120500 76S 865E 25
0220120506 82S 867E 25
0220120512 88S 868E 25
0220120518 95S 867E 25
0220120600 107S 864E 30
0220120606 116S 855E 30
0220120612 124S 846E 30
0220120618 132S 837E 30
0220120700 142S 830E 35
0220120706 146S 819E 35
0220120712 151S 809E 40
0220120718 155S 800E 45
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120900 198S 765E 55
0220120906 205S 760E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.0S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.1S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.8E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
829 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPIRAL BANDING IN THE
EIR LOOP. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) THAT
IS IN LINE WITH THE 45 KTS WINDS DEPICTED IN DATA FROM A 090429Z
ASCAT-C PASS. TC BONGOYO IS TRACKING ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COOL
(25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THROUGH TAU 12 THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE.
THEREAFTER, AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
THEREAFTER WHICH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING ALONG THE WESTWARD
TRACK THAT WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAXIMUM 190 NM
SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. OVERALL THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
LAID ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090633
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 09/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 76.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 10/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65

36H: 10/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 55

48H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 55

60H: 11/12/2020 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 12/12/2020 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/12/2020 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

BONGOYO FAIT DE LA RESISTANCE ... AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES,
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES A MONTRE LA CONSTITUTION D'UN OEIL MAL DEFINI
EN MOYENNE TROPO. CELUI-CI EST ENTRAIN D'APPARAITRE SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES VISIBLES. UN TILT DE LA STRUCTURE VERTICAL DE CET OEIL VERS LE
SUD (DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT) SEMBLE SE DECELER
EN COMPARANT LES IMAGERIES 85 GHZ ET 37 GHZ. LES ESTIMATIONS
D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES (SCATSAT ET ASCAT-C DE CE MATIN) PLAIDENT POUR
UNE INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 55 KT.

BONGOYO EST DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MODEREMMENT CISAILLE MAIS SURTOUT
VIENT D'ARRIVER SUR DES EAUX AU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT. DANS
CE CONTEXTE, UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT MARQUE RESTE ENVISAGE A COURT TERME.
AVEC UN COEUR CHAUD QUI SE DILUE RAPIDEMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
PROGRESSIVEMENT A VOLUER EN DA PRESSION RA SIDUELLE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE PHENOMENE BAROCLINE ET D'EFFET DE GRADIENT DE PRESSIONS AVEC
L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL, DES VENTS DE FORCE GRAND FRAIS VOIRE COUP
DE VENT LOCALEMENT POURRAIENT ETRE PRESENT DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD A L'EST DE 60E.

LE DEPLACEMENT EST ACTUELLEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD ALORS QU'UN
TALWEG PROFOND DES MOYENNES LATITUDES CIRCULE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
AUJOURD'HUI. AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENVISAGE ET LA BAISSE ASSOCIEE DU
FLUX DIRECTEUR, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT REDRESSER SON CAP VERS LE
SUD-OUEST PUIS L'OUEST. AINSI, BONGOYO DEVRAIT SE METTRE A DERIVER
VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. IL
EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN DE PREVISION,
NOTAMMENT PAR RAPPORT SUR LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DE
RODRIGUES.

SOUS UNE FORME TRES ATTENUEE PAR LA SUITE ET AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS
AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090633
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 76.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/09 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/10 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/10 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 55

48H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/11 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2020/12/12 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/13 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

BONGOYO MAKES RESISTANCE ... DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, MICROWAVE
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE CONSTITUTION OF AN ILL-DEFINED EYE IN THE MID
LAYERS. THIS ONE IS APPEARING ON THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY. A TILT OF
THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THIS EYE TOWARDS THE SOUTH (IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR) SEEMS TO BE DETECTED BY
COMPARING THE 85 GHZ AND 37 GHZ IMAGES. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
(SCATSAT AND ASCAT-C FROM THIS MORNING) PLEAD FOR AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 55 KT.

BONGOYO IS IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT ABOVE ALL HAS JUST
ARRIVED ON WATERS WITH INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS
CONTEXT, A MARKED WEAKENING IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH
A WARM CORE THAT IS RAPIDLY DILUTED, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
PROGRESSIVELY EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF BAROCLINIC PHENOMENA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECTS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE, NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OR EVEN LOCAL GALES
COULD BE PRESENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE EAST
OF 60E.

THE TRACK IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWARDS WHILE A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
CIRCULATING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM TODAY. WITH THE EXECTED WEAKENING AND
THE ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW, THE STORM SHOULD MAKE A
SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST. THUS, BONGOYO
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR RODRIGUES.

IN A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THEREAFTER AND IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE REMNANT OF BONGOYO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN ON THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090625
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/12/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 76.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 18 UTC:
20.7 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 06 UTC:
20.8 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090038
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/3/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 76.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 165 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 10/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 195 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 10/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 240 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 65

48H: 11/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 55

60H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SO: 175 NO: 55

72H: 12/12/2020 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'APPARENCE NUAGEUSE DE BONGOYO A
PEU EVOLUE AVEC UN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
SEMBLENT CEPENDANT COMMENCER A MONTRER UN TILT ENTRE LA CIRCULATION
DE BASSES COUCHES ET CELLE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT SUR LES DONNEES AMSR2
DE 2023Z. CELA POURRAIT ETRE LIE AU DEBUT DE L'AUGMENTATION DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND. LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES NOTAMMENT
LE SATCON NE MONTRENT PAS D'EVOLUTION SIGNIFICATIVE. L'INTENSITE EST
DONC MAINTENUE A 55KT.

BONGOYO SEMBLE AVOIR FINI DE S'INTENSIFIER ALORS QUE LA FENA TRE
FAVORABLE A SON CREUSEMENT SE REFERME. EN EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT CONTINUER D'AUGMENTER RAPIDEMENT ET ETRE
ASSOCIA A DES INTRUSIONS SA CHES PLUS IMPORTANTES. AVEC UN COEUR
CHAUD QUI SE DILUE RAPIDEMENT, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS
PROGRESSIVEMENT A VOLUER EN DA PRESSION RA SIDUELLE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE PHENOMENE BAROCLINE, DES VENTS DE FORCE GRAND FRAIS VOIRE COUP DE
VENT LOCALEMENT POURRAIENT ETRE PRESENT DANS LES PROCHAINS JOURS DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

APRES UN DEPLACEMENT ORIENTE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES
DERNIERS HEURES, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET DU PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD, LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT
REDRESSER SON CAP VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS L'OUEST. EN EFFET, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME. AINSI, BONGOYO DEVRAIT SE METTRE A DERIVER VERS L'OUEST SUR
LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE
INCERTAINE IMPORTANTE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE EN FIN DE PREVISION,
NOTAMMENT PAR RAPPORT SUR LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DE
RODRIGUES.

SOUS UNE FORME TRES ATTENUE PAR LA SUITE ET AU VU DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE ACTUELLE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS
AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE PLUIE SUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090038
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 76.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/09 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 165 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2020/12/10 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 195 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 240 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/11 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/12 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, BONGOYO CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED WITH AN
EMBEDDED CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGES SEEMS HOWEVER HINTING THAT A TILT
MAY BE FORMING BETWEEN TH UPPER AND LOWER CORE (ESPECIALLY ON 2023Z
AMSR2 DATA). THIS FACT IF TRUE WOULD BE LIKELY RELATED TO THE
INCREASE OF THE DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THUS, INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT
55KT.

BONGOYO SEEMS AT THE END OF ITS DEEPENING PHASE AS THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WINDOWS IS CLOSING IN. INDEED, THE DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP ON INCREASING IN THE NEXT HOURS AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MORE EFFICIENT DRY INTRUSIONS. WITH A RAPIDLY DILUTING WARM CORE, THE
SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BAROCLINIC PHENOMENA, NEAR GALE
FORCE AND GALE FORCE WIND MAY REMAIN IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

AFTER MOVING SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE TROUGH AT SOUTH, THE STORM SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY BEND WESTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME DOWN TO
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. BONGOYO IS THUS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THERE IS STILL QUITE SOME UNCERTAINTY
AT LONGER RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS ITS CLOSEST DISTANCE FROM
RODRIGUES.

UNDER A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THIS WEEK-END AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, THE RESIDUAL LOW BONGOYO SHOULD NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAINFALL OVER THE INHABITED
ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 090025
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/12/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/12/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 76.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 12 UTC:
20.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/10 AT 00 UTC:
20.6 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201208195225
2020120818 02S BONGOYO 004 02 215 12 SATL XTRP 040
T000 187S 0768E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 198S 0760E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 203S 0752E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 205S 0739E 045 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 203S 0719E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 203S 0669E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 198S 0610E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.3S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.5S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.3S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 76.6E.
0220112612 112S 913E 15
0220112618 115S 918E 15
0220112700 119S 921E 15
0220112706 124S 924E 20
0220112712 129S 926E 25
0220112718 131S 930E 20
0220112800 134S 929E 20
0220112806 132S 922E 20
0220112812 132S 915E 20
0220112818 127S 914E 20
0220112900 123S 915E 20
0220112906 120S 915E 20
0220112912 116S 909E 20
0220112918 112S 902E 25
0220113000 109S 896E 25
0220113006 109S 890E 25
0220113012 110S 884E 25
0220113018 109S 877E 25
0220120100 106S 871E 25
0220120106 103S 865E 20
0220120112 98S 854E 20
0220120118 90S 842E 20
0220120200 85S 835E 20
0220120206 79S 830E 20
0220120212 76S 832E 20
0220120218 75S 838E 20
0220120300 74S 847E 20
0220120306 69S 849E 20
0220120312 68S 852E 20
0220120318 68S 854E 25
0220120400 69S 857E 25
0220120406 70S 860E 20
0220120412 72S 862E 25
0220120418 74S 864E 25
0220120500 76S 865E 25
0220120506 82S 867E 25
0220120512 88S 868E 25
0220120518 95S 867E 25
0220120600 107S 864E 30
0220120606 116S 855E 30
0220120612 124S 846E 30
0220120618 132S 837E 30
0220120700 142S 830E 35
0220120706 146S 819E 35
0220120712 151S 809E 40
0220120718 155S 800E 45
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120812 177S 775E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
0220120818 187S 768E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.3S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.5S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.3S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.8S 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 76.6E.
08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1106
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING UNDER
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF DISCRETE BANDING EVIDENT IN A
081625Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND TURNING IN EIR. ADDITIONALLY,
THE POSITION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW, FIMP, AND FMEE FIX
LOCATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW/FIMP/FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), AND A SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 54
KTS. TC 02S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG ITS EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. THROUGH TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ALONG THIS TRACK, TC 02S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12
AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. AN
INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE
AROUND TAU 36, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN GENERALLY WESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALONG
THIS TRACK, TC 02S WILL ENTER AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SST.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD OF 210 NM IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU
96. GALWEM IS THE ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER AS IT PURSUES A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS GENERALLY
WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/3/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 76.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/12/2020 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 65 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 09/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 75 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 10/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 65

48H: 10/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 55

60H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

72H: 11/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST MAINTENU
A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DE BONGOYO. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (NOTAMMENT
SSMIS DE 1312Z) MONTRENT QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SE CONCENTRE
TOUJOURS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE ASYMETRIE
EST PROBABLEMENT ASSOCIE A LA CONTRAINTE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS AUTOUR DE 20KT DE SECTEUR NORD. LES DERNIERS
PASSES SMAP ET ASCAT MONTRENT PEU D'EVOLUTION PAR RAPPORT A CELLES
D'IL Y A 12 HEURES. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENU A 55KT.

BONGOYO SEMBLE AVOIR FINI DE S'INTENSIFIER ALORS QUE LA FENA TRE
FAVORABLE A SON CREUSEMENT SE REFERME DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.EN
EFFET, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT AUGMENTER RAPIDEMENT
ET ETRE ASSOCIA A DES INTRUSIONS SA CHES PLUS IMPORTANTES. AVEC UN
COEUR CHAUD QUI SE DILUE RAPIDEMENT, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS
PROGRESSIVEMENT A VOLUER EN DA PRESSION RA SIDUELLE.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON CAP VERS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES. DEMAIN, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES
BASSES COUCHES AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. AINSI, BONGOYO
DEVRAIT SE METTRE A DERIVER VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.

SOUS UNE FORME TRES ATTENUE PAR LA SUITE, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
BONGOYO NE DEVRAIT PAS AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT
ET DE PLUIE SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 76.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/09 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2020/12/09 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/10 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/10 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2020/12/11 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED NEAR BONGOYO
CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGES (ESPECIALLY 1312Z SSMIS) SHOW THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS STILL CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS ASYMMETRY IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AROUND 20KT FROM NORTH. THE
LATEST SMAP AND ASCAT PASSES SHOW LITTLE EVOLUTION COMPARED TO THOSE
OF 12 HOURS AGO. THE INTENSITY IS THUS MAINTAINED AT 55KT.

BONGOYO SEEMS AT THE END OF ITS DEEPENING PHASE AS THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WINDOWS IS CLOSING IN. INDEED, THE DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT HOURS AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
EFFCIENT DRY INTRUSIONS. WITH A RAPIDLY DILUTING WARM CORE, THE
SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE STORM
SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTH-WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOURS. TOMORROW,
THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE
WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. BONGOYO IS THUS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA.

UNDER A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THIS WEEK-END, THE RESIDUAL LOW BONGOYO
SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAINFALL
OVER THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.1S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.8E.
08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1199 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE
MSI LOOP AS WELL AS VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 080103Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE WIND FIELD INTENSITY AND EXTENT ARE FURTHER CONSTRAINED BASED ON DATA IN A
080241Z ASCAT-A PASS. TC BONGOYO IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 02S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASING (15-25 KTS) VWS, DECREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COOLING SST THAT FALL BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY TAU 36. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WEAKENING WILL
LEAD THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY TAU 48 WITH HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS, COOL (25-
26 CELSIUS) SST AND POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DUE TO THESE
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A MAXIMUM 410 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OVERALL, MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM TRACK THAT LIES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR AND THE STR LOCATION IN REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081819
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/12/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 76.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 06 UTC:
19.7 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 18 UTC:
20.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081224
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/3/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 77.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/12/2020 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 09/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 10/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 195 NO: 55

48H: 10/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 205 NO: 55

60H: 11/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 55

72H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+;CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, BONGOYO MONTRE DES SIGNES DE
RESISTANCE AUX CONTRAINTES DE CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR
NORD-OUEST
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. EN EFFET DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES (HOT
TOWERS) SONT VISIBLES PRES DU CENTRE, DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST SUR
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1126Z. L'OEIL DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A
PERDU EN DEFINITION ET EST OUVERT COTE EST.

LA FENA TRE FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION SE REFERME AUJOURD'HUI,
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. CETTE CONTRAINTE LIMITE DEJA LE DA VELOPPEMENT
DU SYSTA ME AUJOURD'HUI. DEMAIN MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
PROFOND DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A GALEMENT ET A TRE ASSOCIA A DES
INTRUSIONS SA CHES PLUS IMPORTANTES. AVEC UN COEUR CHAUD QUI SE DILUE
RAPIDEMENT, LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS PROGRESSIVEMENT A VOLUER EN DA
PRESSION RA SIDUELLE.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON CAP VERS LE SUD-OUEST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES. EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
REDESCEND DANS LES BASSES COUCHES AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.
AINSI, BONGOYO DEVRAIT SE METTRE A DERIVER VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES.

SOUS UNE FORME ATTENUE CE WEEK-END, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO
NE DEVRAIT PAS AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE
PLUIE SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 77.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/09 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/09 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/10 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 195 NW: 55

48H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 205 NW: 55

60H: 2020/12/11 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+;CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BONGOYO SHOWED SIGNS OF RESISTANCE AGAINST THE
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INDEED, STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER, IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE ON THE 1126Z MW SSMIS IMAGE. THE MID-LEVEL EYE HAS LOST
ITS DEFINITION AND IS NOW OPENED ON THE EASTERN SIDE.

THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS GRADUALLY CLOSING TODAY, WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT IN
THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ALREADY LIMITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
TODAY. TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AND
BE ASSOCIATED TO MORE EFFICIENT DRY INTRUSIONS. WITH A RAPIDLY
DILUTING WARM CORE, THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE STORM
SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTH-WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOURS. TOMORROW,
THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME DOWN TO LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE
WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. BONGOYO IS THUS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA.

UNDER A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THIS WEEK-END, THE RESIDUAL LOW BONGOYO
SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAINFALL
OVER THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 081216
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/12/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 77.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80-NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 12 UTC:
20.5 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02S SIO 201208082522
2020120806 02S BONGOYO 003 01 230 15 SATL 060
T000 168S 0781E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 184S 0769E 055 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 195S 0762E 050 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 199S 0754E 045 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 201S 0741E 040 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 201S 0699E 035 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 199S 0648E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 197S 0586E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.1S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.8E.
08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1199 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
//
0220112612 112S 913E 15
0220112618 115S 918E 15
0220112700 119S 921E 15
0220112706 124S 924E 20
0220112712 129S 926E 25
0220112718 131S 930E 20
0220112800 134S 929E 20
0220112806 132S 922E 20
0220112812 132S 915E 20
0220112818 127S 914E 20
0220112900 123S 915E 20
0220112906 120S 915E 20
0220112912 116S 909E 20
0220112918 112S 902E 25
0220113000 109S 896E 25
0220113006 109S 890E 25
0220113012 110S 884E 25
0220113018 109S 877E 25
0220120100 106S 871E 25
0220120106 103S 865E 20
0220120112 98S 854E 20
0220120118 90S 842E 20
0220120200 85S 835E 20
0220120206 79S 830E 20
0220120212 76S 832E 20
0220120218 75S 838E 20
0220120300 74S 847E 20
0220120306 69S 849E 20
0220120312 68S 852E 20
0220120318 68S 854E 25
0220120400 69S 857E 25
0220120406 70S 860E 20
0220120412 72S 862E 25
0220120418 74S 864E 25
0220120500 76S 865E 25
0220120506 82S 867E 25
0220120512 88S 868E 25
0220120518 95S 867E 25
0220120600 107S 864E 30
0220120606 116S 855E 30
0220120612 124S 846E 30
0220120618 132S 837E 30
0220120700 142S 830E 35
0220120706 146S 819E 35
0220120712 151S 809E 40
0220120718 155S 800E 45
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120800 159S 793E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
0220120806 168S 781E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 78.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 78.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.4S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.9S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.1S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.9S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.8E.
08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGOYO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1199 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE MSI
LOOP AS WELL AS VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
PRESENT IN A 080103Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE WIND FIELD
INTENSITY AND EXTENT ARE FURTHER CONSTRAINED BASED ON DATA IN A
080241Z ASCAT-A PASS. TC BONGOYO IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TB 02S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASING (15-25 KTS) VWS, DECREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COOLING SST THAT FALL BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY TAU 36. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WEAKENING WILL
LEAD THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY TAU 48 WITH HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS, COOL (25-
26 CELSIUS) SST AND POOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. DUE TO THESE
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A MAXIMUM 410 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OVERALL, MODEL
GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID
JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM TRACK
THAT LIES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080619
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/3/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 78.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SO: 325 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SO: 110 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/12/2020 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 09/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 55 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 09/12/2020 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 10/12/2020 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SO: 220 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/12/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SO: 215 NO: 55

72H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/12/2020 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE
SONT MAINTENUES PRES DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION, SITUE EN BORDURE
SUD-EST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. LES IMAGES 89GHZ SSMIS DE 2249Z
ET 0034Z ONT MONTRE LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. AINSI, EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, DONT L'ANALYSE DVORAK DU CMRS, BONGOYO A ETE
CLASSE EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE 89GHZ DE LA
PASSE METOP-B DE 0354Z A MONTRE QUE LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU COEUR DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A DEJA COMMENCE A ETRE ERODE PAR UNE ADVECTION
D'AIR SEC. MALGRE L'EMERGENCE D'UN OEIL VOILE ET MAL DEFINI SUR
L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE, L'INFLUENCE DE L'AIR SEC Y EST EGALEMENT VISIBLE.

LA FENA TRE FAVORABLE A L'INTENSIFICATION SE REFERME AUJOURD'HUI,
AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT ENCORE LIMITER LE DA
VELOPPEMENT DU SYSTA ME AUJOURD'HUI, MEME SI LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL N'EST PAS ENCORE EXCLUS D'ICI LA FIN DE JOURNEE. DEMAIN
MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A
GALEMENT ET A TRE ASSOCIA A DES INTRUSIONS SA CHES PLUS
IMPORTANTES. LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS RAPIDEMENT A VOLUER EN DA
PRESSION RA SIDUELLE.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE,
LA TEMPETE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SON CAP VERS LE SUD-OUEST. LA PRA VISION
DE TRAJECTOIRE DE BONGOYO PRA SENTE UNE DESCENTE VERS LE SUD UN PEU
PLUS MARQUA E QU'INITIALEMENT DUE A UNE INTENSITE ANALYSEE PLUS
ELEVEE, QUI LA LAISSE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE UN PEU PLUS
LONGTEMPS. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES
BASSES COUCHES AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. AINSI, BONGOYO
DEVRAIT DERIVER VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTES PRESSIONS
SUBTROPICALES.

SOUS UNE FORME ATTENUE CE WEEK-END, LA DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE BONGOYO
NE DEVRAIT PAS AVOIR D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF EN TERMES DE VENT ET DE
PLUIE SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080619
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 78.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 325 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/08 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2020/12/09 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2020/12/09 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/10 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 120 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2020/12/10 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/12 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAINTAINED NEAR
THE CIRCULATION CENTER, LOCATED ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION. 2249Z AND 0034Z 89GHZ SSMIS IMAGES SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. THUS, IN AGREEMENT WITH AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVES ESTIMATES, BONGOYO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. HOWEVER, THE 89GHZ MW IMAGE FROM THE
0354Z METOP-B SWATH SHOWED THAT THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
MID-LEVEL CORE ALREADY BEGAN TO BE ERODED BY DRY AIR. DESPITE THE
EMERGENCE OF AN ILL-DEFINED AND VEILED EYE ON THE VIS IMAGERY, THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR IS ALSO VISIBLE.

THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION IS GRADUALLY CLOSING TODAY, WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT IN THE
MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TODAY,
EVEN IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MIGHT STILL BE REACHED BY TONIGHT.
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AND BE
ASSOCIATED TO MORE EFFICIENT DRY INTRUSIONS. THE SYSTEM IS THUS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE STORM
SHOULD KEEP ON HEADING SOUTH-WESTWARD. BONGOYO'S TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE BIT MORE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH, IN COHERENCE WITH THE STRONGER
ANALYSED INTENSITY WHICH ALLOWS THE STORM TO REMAIN LONGER UNDER THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE. FROM THURSDAY, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME DOWN TO
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. BONGOYO IS THUS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.

UNDER A VERY ATTENUATED FORM THIS WEEK-END, THE RESIDUAL LOW BONGOYO
SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAINFALL
OVER THE INHABITED ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080609
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/12/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 78.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100-NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
18.4 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 06 UTC:
20.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 185 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/12/2020 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 09/12/2020 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 09/12/2020 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 10/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 215 SO: 250 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 10/12/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SO: 230 NO: 55

72H: 11/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/12/2020 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DE LA PA RIODE 00 ET 06 UTC, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
BONGOYO EN CDO S'EST MAINTENUE ALORS QUE LA BANDE DE CONVECTION PLUS
A L'EST EST BIEN DA TACHA E. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION TRADUISANT UNE
INTENSIFICATION PAR RAPPORT AU RESEAU PRA CA DENT, L'ANALYSE DVORAK
LAISSE TOUTEFOIS BONGOYO A LA LIMITE SUPA RIEURE DE TEMPA TE
TROPICALE MODA RA E AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMA S DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT,
PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD DU SYSTA ME. LE SEUIL DE FORTE
TEMPA TE TROPICALE EST POUR BIENTA T.

LA PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DE BONGOYO PRA SENTE UNE DESCENTE VERS
LE SUD UN PEU PLUS MARQUA E QU'INITIALEMENT. AVEC TOUT D'ABORD, UN
MAINTIENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. PUIS AVEC LE PASSAGE PLUS AU SUD D'UN TALWEG, LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE INDUIT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR MOINS MARQUA : LA
TRAJECTOIRE RALENTIT ET PREND UNE COMPOSANTE MA RIDIENNE PLUS MARQUA
E EN MI-JOURNA E DE MARDI QUI PERSISTE UN PEU PLUS LONGTEMPS. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE POSITIONNE AU
SUD-OUEST DE BONGOYA IMPOSANT A NOUVEAU UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST
QUI ACCA LA RE.

LA FENA TRE FAVORABLE D'INTENSIFICATION SE TERMINE DANS LA JOURNA E
DE CE MARDI, AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHA RE. CETTE CONTRAINTE LIMITE LE DA VELOPPEMENT DU SYSTA ME
AUJOURD'HUI PUIS MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT
AUGMENTER A GALEMENT ET A TRE ASSOCIA A DES INTRUSIONS SA CHES PLUS
IMPORTANTES. LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS RAPIDEMENT A VOLUER EN DA
PRESSION RA SIDUELLE AU COURS DE SON DA PLACEMENT VERS LES
MASCAREIGNES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/08 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2020/12/09 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/09 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/10 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 120 SW: 230 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/11 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/12 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE PERIOD 00 AND 06 UTC, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF BONGOYO
IN CDO WAS MAINTAINED WHILE THE CONVECTION BAND FURTHER EAST IS WELL
DETACHED. IN THIS CONFIGURATION REFLECTING AN INTENSIFICATION
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PERIOD, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS LEAVES HOWEVER
BONGOYO AT THE UPPER LIMIT OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED
WINDS OF ABOUT 45KT, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THE
THRESHOLD OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM IS SOON.

BONGOYO'S TRACK FORECASTING SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE MARKED SOUTHWARD
DESCENT THAN INITIALLY. WITH FIRST OF ALL, A SOUTHWESTWARD
MAINTENANCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN WITH
THE PASSAGE FURTHER SOUTH OF A TROUGH, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCES
A LESS MARKED DIRECTIONAL FLOW: THE TRACK SLOWS DOWN AND TAKES A MORE
MARKED MERIDIONAL COMPONENT IN MID TUESDAY WHICH PERSISTS A LITTLE
LONGER. IN MID-WEEK, A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS POSITIONED SOUTHWEST
OF BONGOYA IMPOSING AGAIN A WESTWARD TRACK WHICH ACCELERATES.

THE FAVORABLE INTENSIFICATION WINDOW ENDS ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPICAL WINDSHEAR. THIS CONSTRAINT LIMITS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TODAY AND THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE DEEP
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE
IMPORTANT DRY INTRUSIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO
A REMNANT LOW DURING ITS MOVE TOWARDS THE MASCARENE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080001
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/12/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 78.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 100 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 500 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/09 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 79.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 185 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/12/2020 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 250 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 65

24H: 08/12/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 09/12/2020 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SO: 165 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 09/12/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 65

60H: 10/12/2020 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 55

72H: 10/12/2020 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BONGOYO A A
VOLUA D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVA E VERS UN DA BUT DE
CONFIGURATION CISAILLA E POUR FINALEMENT S'ORIENTER VERS UN CDO DONT
LE CENTRE SE SITUE EN BORDURE EST DE LA MASSE NUAGEUSE. CETTE A VOLUE
EST CERTAINEMENT EN LIEN AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT MODA RA E DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHA RE ACCOMPAGNA D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC QUI A ENTAMA LA
CONVECTION. CECI A COUPA LE CENTRE CONVECTIF DE LA BANDE INCURVA E
ENCORE PRA SENTE PLUS A L'EST DU SYSTA ME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK PEUT A
TRE REVUE LA GA REMENT A LA HAUSSE AVEC UN CI DE 3.0 LAISSANT DES
VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT VALIDA LOCALEMENT PAR LA PASSE ASCAT DE
1531UTC.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PRA VISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
: BONGOYO MAINTIENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTA E VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD. AVEC LE PASSAGE
PLUS AU SUD D'UN TALWEG, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE INDUISANT UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR MOINS MARQUA : LA TRAJECTOIRE RALENTIT ET PREND UNE
COMPOSANTE MA RIDIENNE PLUS MARQUA E EN MI-JOURNA E DE MARDI. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE POSITIONNE AU
SUD-OUEST DE BONGOYO IMPOSANT A NOUVEAU UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST
QUI ACCA LA RE.

AU COURS DE CE DA PLACEMENT, BONGOYO SEMBLE AVOIR FINI DE BA NA
FICIER DE SA FENA TRE FAVORABLE, AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
CONTRAINTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHA RE. CETTE CONTRAINTE VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT LIMITER LE DA VELOPPEMENT DU SYSTA ME, MARDI.
MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT AUGMENTER A
GALEMENT ET A TRE ASSOCIA A DES INTRUSIONS SA CHES PLUS
IMPORTANTES. LE SYSTA ME DEVRAIT ALORS RAPIDEMENT A VOLUER EN DA
PRESSION RA SIDUELLE AU COURS DE SON DA PLACEMENT VERS LES
MASCAREIGNES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 79.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/08 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/08 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/09 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/09 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 65

60H: 2020/12/10 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/10 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/11 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BONGOYO CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED
FROM A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION TO A SHEARED CONFIGURATION TO
FINALLY BECOME A CDO PATTERN WHOSE CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CDO. THIS EVOLUTION IS CERTAINLY RELATED TO A MODERATE
WINDSHEAR OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR WHICH WEAKENED THE CONVECTION. THIS HAS BROKEN THE CONVECTIVE
CENTER OF THE CURVED BAND STILL PRESENT FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN BE REVISED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS WITH A CI OF 3.0
LEAVING WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40KT VALIDATED LOCALLY BY THE 1531UTC
ASCAT SWATH.

LIMITED CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST: BONGOYO
MAINTAINS A SOUTHWEST TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE PASSAGE FURTHER SOUTH OF A TROUGH, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCES A LESS MARKED DIRECTIONAL FLOW: THE TRACK
SLOWS DOWN AND TAKES ON A MORE MARKED MERIDIONAL COMPONENT BY MIDDAY
ON TUESDAY. IN MID-WEEK, A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST OF BONGOYO AGAIN IMPOSING A WESTWARD TRACK WHICH
ACCELERATES.

DURING THIS DISPLACEMENT, BONGOYO SEEMS TO HAVE FINISHED BENEFITING
FROM ITS FAVORABLE WINDOW, WITH THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE CONSTRAINT
IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THIS CONSTRAINT WILL GRADUALLY LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE DEEP VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH GREATER DRY
INTRUSIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A REMNANT LOW
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071803
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/12/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 79.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 130 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071244
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 81.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/12/2020 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 315 SO: 175 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 08/12/2020 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 09/12/2020 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 09/12/2020 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SO: 85 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 35 NO: 65

60H: 10/12/2020 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 75 SO: 155 NO: 55

72H: 10/12/2020 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2020 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DEPUIS 06Z, APRES UNE PREMIERE PHASE D'AMELIORATION, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DE BONGOYO A COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
PROCHE DU CENTRE SE CONCENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. LA PASSE
GMI DE 0750Z MONTRE EGALEMENT UNE PETITE FAIBLESSE DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST. LA CONVECTION EN 89GHZ APPARAIT EGALEMENT MORCELE. CES
ELEMENTS SUGGERENT QUE LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE A PEUT ETRE COMMENCE A SE RENFORCE. ELLE EST ANALYSE
AUTOUR DE 15KT PAR LE CIMSS A 09Z. L'INTENSITE A ETE REHAUSSE ET
MAITENU A 40KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'EVOLUTION EN DEBUT DE PERIODE
ASSOCIE A UNE CERTAINE INERTIE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
BONGOYO A PRIS UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD. AVEC LE PASSAGE
PLUS AU SUD D'UN TALWEG, LA TRAJECTOIRE RALENTIT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN
EN PRENANT UNE COMPOSANTE MERIDIENNE PLUS MARQUEE. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE, LE RETOUR DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE IMPOSE A NOUVEAU UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN ACCELERANT.

AU COURS DE CE DEPLACEMENT, BONGOYO SEMBLE AVOIR FINI DE BENEFICIER
DE SA FENETRE FAVORABLE, AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA CONTRAINTE EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. ELLE DEVRAIT LIMITER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DU
SYSTEME. MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT AUGMENTER
EGALEMENT ET ETRE ASSOCIE A DES INTRUSIONS SECHES PLUS IMPORTANTES.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS RAPIDEMENT EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE.

AUCUNE MENACE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 81.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/08 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 315 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/08 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/09 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2020/12/09 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 215 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 65

60H: 2020/12/10 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 75 SW: 155 NW: 55

72H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

SINCE 06Z, AFTER A FIRST IMPROVMENT PHASE, BONGOYO CLOUD PATTERN HAS
STARTED TO DECAY. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER IS
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE GMI PASS OF 0750Z ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. CONVECTION IN 89GHZ
ALSO APPEARS FRAGMENTED. THESE ELEMENTS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHWESTERN
MID SHEAR MAY HAVE BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN. IT IS ANALYZED AROUND 15KT BY
THE CIMSS AT 09Z. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED AND MAINTAINED AT
40KT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EVOLUTION AT THE BEGINNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A CERTAIN INERTIA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY : BONGOYO CONTINUED IT
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDERTHE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE PASSAGE FURTHER SOUTH OF A TROUGH, THE LOW
SLOWS DOWN FROM TOMORROW AND TAKE A MORE MARKED MERIDIAN COMPONENT.
FROM MID-WEEK, THE RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IMPOSES AGAIN A
WESTWARD TRACK WHILE ACCELERATING.

ALONG THIS TRACK, BONGOYO SEEMS AT THE END OF ITS FAVORABLE PHASE
WITH THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE MID TROPOSPHERE SHEAR. IT SHOULD LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY, DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE IMPORTANT DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE INTRUSIONS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY EVOLVE
INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

NO THREAT IS FORECAST FOR THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071222 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/12/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 81.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 200 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
16.2 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTION OF THE NEAR GALE FORCE EXTENT AT ANALYSIS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071218
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/12/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 81.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 200 NM AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
16.2 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070645
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/3/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/12/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 82.1 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/12/2020 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 08/12/2020 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SO: 185 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 65

36H: 08/12/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 09/12/2020 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 09/12/2020 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 215 SO: 110 NO: 65

72H: 10/12/2020 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/12/2020 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DEPUIS 00Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME 03 S'EST NETTEMENT
AMELIOREE AVEC UNE BANDE INCURVEE QUI S'ENROULE A PRESENT SUR PLUS
D'UN DEMI-CERCLE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. NEANMOINS LES SOMMETS SE SONT
RECHAUFFES DEPUIS. ETANT DONNE CETTE EVOLUTION ET LES PASSES
MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE NUIT (SSMIS 0050Z), LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE
BONGOYO PAR LES SERVICES MAURICIENS. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0414Z A
CONFIRME LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
BONGOYO A REPRIS UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST DU
FAIT DE L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PLUS AU SUD. AVEC LE
PASSAGE PLUS AU SUD D'UN TALWEG, LA TRAJECTOIRE RALENTIT A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN EN PRENANT UNE COMPOSANTE MERIDIENNE PLUS MARQUEE. A PARTIR DU
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE RETOUR DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE IMPOSE A
NOUVEAU UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST EN ACCELERANT.

AU COURS DE CE DEPLACEMENT, BONGOYO BENIFICIE D'UNE FENETRE FAVORABLE
PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 12H. LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE MODERE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
LIMITER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL PROFOND DEVRAIT AUGMENTER EGALEMENT ET ETRE ASSOCIE A DES
INTRUSIONS SECHES EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
RAPIDEMENT EVOLUER EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

AUCUNE MENACE N'EST ENVISAGE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO)

2.A POSITION 2020/12/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 82.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/07 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2020/12/08 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/08 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/09 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2020/12/09 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 65

72H: 2020/12/10 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/11 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

SINCE 00Z, 03 CLOUD PATTERN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH A CURVED
BAND NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF MORE THAN A SEMICIRCLE.
HOWEVER CLOUD TOPS WARMED UP SINCE THEN. GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION AND THE
MICROWAVE PASSES OF THE END OF THE NIGHT (0050Z SSMIS), THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN NAMED BONGOYO BY THE MAURITIAN SERVICES. THE 0414Z ASCAT
PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY : BONGOYO HAS RESUMED
A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE PASSAGE FURTHER SOUTH OF A TALWEG, THE
LOW SLOWS DOWN FROM TOMORROW BY TAKING A MORE MARKED MERIDIAN
COMPONENT. FROM MID-WEEK, THE RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IMPOSES
AGAIN A WESTWARD TRACK WHILE ACCELERATING.

ALONG THIS TRACK, BONGOYO WILL BENEFIT FROM A FAVORABLE WINDOW DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. NEXT NIGHT, THE REINFORCEMENT OF A MODERATE
NORTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY, DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE INTRUSIONS.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RAPIDLY EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION.

NO THREAT IS ENVISAGED FOR THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070621
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/12/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONGOYO) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 82.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 200 NM AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 40
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/12/07 AT 18 UTC:
15.4 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2020/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

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