Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-20
in , Fiji, Vanuatu

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 007//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING./
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 173.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 173.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.6S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.9E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED, FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS VIA
EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN
A 120957Z AMSU COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE
PRESENCE OF 35 KTS WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM IN DATA FROM A 120844Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT.
DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT ENTERED THE CAPTURE
PHASE OF A DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TC 05P WHICH
IS LOCATED 115 NM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS TC 04P WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER
AS IT ENTERS AND COMPLETES THE MERGER PHASE OF THIS DCI AND
BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO TC 05P. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT DURING THIS 12 HOUR FORECAST AND THUS LEND FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 121500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201212143012
2020121212 04P FOUR 007 02 275 14 SATL 060
T000 157S 1731E 035
T012 156S 1723E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 173.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 173.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.6S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.9E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z
IS 14 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 124S1796E 35
0420121106 127S1790E 35
0420121112 131S1787E 40
0420121118 143S1778E 40
0420121200 148S1761E 40
0420121206 158S1746E 35
0420121212 157S1731E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201212073102
2020121206 04P FOUR 006 01 235 18 SATL 030
T000 158S 1746E 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 160S 1731E 040 R034 170 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 161S 1723E 045 R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 162S 1720E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 164S 1717E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 167S 1716E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 169S 1717E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 182S 1736E 085 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 174.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 174.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.1S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.2S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.9S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 174.2E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 124S1796E 35
0420121106 127S1790E 35
0420121112 131S1787E 40
0420121118 143S1778E 40
0420121200 148S1761E 40
0420121206 158S1746E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 174.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 174.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.1S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.2S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.4S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.7S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.9S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 174.2E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
258 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC
AND THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN A 120530Z SSMIS
37 GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.2 (32 KTS). TC 04P IS TRANSITING THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A CONSOLIDATING MONSOON
DEPRESSION, INVEST 91P, LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA
EFFECTS NEAR TAU 48. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS RESULTS IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A COHERENT SOLUTION.
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MERGE THE TWO SYSTEMS INTO ONE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48 THAT THEN REMAINS LARGELY QUASI-
STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A SUBSEQUENT TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS FIJI THROUGH TAU 120. THE GALWEM, JGSM, UKMET AND NAVGEM
MODEL SOLUTIONS, ON THE OTHER HAND, DEPICT SHORT TERM DCI THAT
RESULTS IN TWO SEPARATE VORTEX CENTERS WITH SUBSEQUENT DISSIPATION.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE MERGER BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS AND RESULTING
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY
TAU 120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES AND HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201212020340
2020121200 04P FOUR 005 01 250 15 SATL 030
T000 148S 1763E 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 153S 1743E 045 R034 170 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 155S 1732E 045 R034 200 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 154S 1729E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 155S 1726E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 159S 1723E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 163S 1725E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 171S 1735E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 176.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 176.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.3S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.4S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.5S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.9S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.3S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.1S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 175.8E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 124S1796E 35
0420121106 127S1790E 35
0420121112 131S1787E 40
0420121118 143S1778E 40
0420121200 148S1763E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 176.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 176.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.3S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.5S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.4S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.5S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.9S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.3S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.1S 173.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 175.8E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
232 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALL ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FULLY EXPOSED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
PAIRED WITH AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 112012Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING A TIGHT CIRCULATION, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 35-40KT
WINDS AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KTS) BY PGTW AND PHFO. TC 04P IS TRANSITING THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30+ KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A CONSOLIDATING
MONSOON DEPRESSION, INVEST 91P, WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA EFFECTS NEAR TAU 48. THIS
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS IN HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH A COHERENT SOLUTION. THE 11/18Z GFS AND 11/12Z
ECMWF SOLUTIONS MERGE THE TWO CYCLONES AND RESULTS IN A QUASI-
STATIONARY SYSTEM DOMINATED BY INVEST 91P. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
THE 11/12Z UKMET AND JGSM AND 11/18Z NAVGEM SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT
TC 04P AS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A LARGELY
QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK INITIALLY THROUGH TAUS 72-96 WITH DIVERGING
TRACKS THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CAPTURE THE DCI AND BRING THE RESULTING
CYCLONE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS FIJI AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THIS TIME AND REACH AN INTENSITY OF 85
KTS BY TAU 120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES AND HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201211204847
2020121118 04P FOUR 004 01 215 14 SATL 030
T000 143S 1779E 040 R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 152S 1759E 040 R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 153S 1745E 045 R034 200 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 154S 1736E 045 R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 153S 1733E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 155S 1729E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 160S 1729E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 167S 1738E 080 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 177.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 177.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.2S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.3S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.7S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 177.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 124S1796E 35
0420121106 127S1790E 35
0420121112 131S1787E 40
0420121118 143S1779E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 177.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 177.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.2S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.3S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.3S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.0S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.7S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 177.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. AN 111837Z 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. BETWEEN THE EIR AND
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS, PGTW/KNES/NFFN) AND SUPPORTED BY
A 111320Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 40 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 40 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN THE NEAR TERM, TC 04P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST
91P) WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE
FUJIWHARA EFFECTS NEAR TAU 60. DUE TO THE COMPLEX SCENARIO, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE 11/12Z GFS RUN
INDICATES INVEST 91P WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM WITH TC 04P SKIRTING
WESTWARD TOWARDS VANUATU. CONVERSELY, NAVGEM DEPICTS TC 04P AS THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY POLEWARD BY TAU 36 THEN
TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING TO THE WEST OF FIJI. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, INTENSITY, AND TRACK, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. FOLLOWING
THIS, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE STR TO BUILD
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THUS CAUSE TC 04P TO BEGIN TO TRANSIT
POLEWARD UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGH TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH VWS AND DCI. AFTERWARDS,
THE MERGED SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 80
KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES. OF NOTE, THE
COMPLEXITY OF THIS SCENARIO ALSO PRESENTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE
INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201211132605
2020121112 04P FOUR 003 01 245 07 SATL 045
T000 130S 1784E 040 R034 160 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 139S 1768E 040 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 143S 1750E 040 R034 220 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 143S 1737E 040 R034 220 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 141S 1733E 045 R034 190 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 142S 1729E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 146S 1728E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 152S 1736E 080 R064 060 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.9S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.3S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.3S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.1S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.2S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 178.0E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 124S1796E 35
0420121106 127S1790E 35
0420121112 130S1784E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 178.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.9S 176.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 14.3S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.3S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.1S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.2S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.6S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 178.0E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 111300Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
AN 110905Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 35-40 KNOT WINDS AND A PATCH OF 40-45 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES (29-
30C). TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 91P), WHICH IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS INTO A
CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO
TC 04P, THERE WILL BE A LIKELY PHASE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
(DCI) AND POSSIBLE FUJIWHARA/MERGER NEAR TAU 72. THIS COMPLEX
SCENARIO INVOLVES A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY
INCONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. THE 11/06Z GFS RUN INDICATES INVEST 91P
WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND THAT TC 04P WILL SKIRT WESTWARD OVER
VANUATU WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT. NAVGEM INDICATES TC 04P WILL BE THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM WITH AN SHARP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER FIJI.
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO SYSTEMS (AS CLOSE AS 200NM)
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI/FUJIWHARA, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
REFLECTS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. BY
TAU 96, THE STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS, TC 04P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
POLEWARD BY TAU 120. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE THROUGH TAU 48
WITH A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE MERGED SYSTEM
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL
COMPLEXITY OF THIS FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO
WHERE INVEST 91P BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 178.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 178.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.7S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.8S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.7S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.1S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.4S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 178.5E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. AN 110617Z MHS
89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND AN 110630Z
ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.5. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 04P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM IS ALO TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
MONSOON DEPRESSION (INVEST 91P), WHICH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL
CYCLONE. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 91P TO TC 04P, THERE WILL BE
A LIKELY PHASE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) AND POSSIBLE
FUJIWHARA/MERGER NEAR TAU 72. THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO INVOLVES A LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND INTENSITY FORECAST.
GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS INVEST 91P AND WEAKENS TC 04P LEADING
04P'S ABSORPTION WHILE NAVGEM/ECMWF INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVEST 91P AND ABSORPTION OF TC 04P. DUE TO THE DCI/FUJIWHARA
SCENARIO, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS A SLOW/QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. BY TAU 96, THE STR IS FORECAST TO
BUILD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THUS, TC 04P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD BY TAU 120. TC
04P IS FORECAST TO STRUGGLE THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE MERGED SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNUSUAL COMPLEXITY OF THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO, THERE IS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 91P
BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND TC 04P DISSIPATES. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201211080435
2020121106 04P FOUR 002 01 235 08 SATL 030
T000 129S 1789E 035 R034 140 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 137S 1771E 035 R034 110 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 141S 1748E 040 R034 190 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 138S 1737E 040 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 137S 1733E 045 R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 141S 1729E 060 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 146S 1729E 075 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 154S 1731E 080 R064 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 178.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 178.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.7S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.1S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.8S 173.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.7S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.1S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.6S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.4S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 178.5E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313
NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 124S1796E 35
0420121106 129S1789E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.8S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.8S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.1S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.3S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 179.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC, WITH SUPPORT FROM AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED
LLCC IN A 102147Z ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH AT THE TIME SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION UNDER THE CONVECTIVE PLUME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND THE ASCAT-B PASS MENTIONED EARLIER, WHICH
DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
WESTERLY VWS EMINATING FROM A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF INVEST
91P OFFSETTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 04P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THIS RELATIVELY
SHALLOW STR THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST BECOMES
EXCEPTIONALLY CHALLENGING, AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO BINARY
INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 91P. AFTER TAU 24, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BE CAPTURED BY ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND CACOONED WITHIN AN
UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THE NER TO THE
NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST, LEADING TO AN OVERALL
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AS THE TWO SYSTEMS FUJIWHARA AROUND ONE
ANOTHER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AROUND TAU 48 TC 04P WILL ABSORB INVEST
AREA 91P FORMING A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VANUATU AND FIJI THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER TAU
36, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARDS ONE ANOTHER, THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TC 04P, WITH DECREASED VWS AND
MUCH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE BINARY INTERACTION. THE EGRR AND AFUM
MODELS INDICATE THAT TC 04P WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY INTERACTION WITH 91P
AND RAPIDLY TRANSIT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CORAL SEA. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INDICATE A NORTHWARD LOOP, BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
TO THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODEL TRACKERS. FINALLY THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME
INTERACTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH, THEN A QUASI-STATIONARY DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. HOWEVER IN LIGHT OF THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND KNOWN
INABILITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO EFFECTIVELY MODEL THE COMPLEXITIES
OF BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS53 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 201211021138
2020121100 04P FOUR 001 01 290 05 SATL 030
T000 121S 1799E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 128S 1780E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 136S 1758E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 138S 1743E 045 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 138S 1731E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 141S 1725E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 146S 1722E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 153S 1722E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 179.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 179.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.8S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.8S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.8S 173.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.1S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.3S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 179.4E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, WITH SUPPORT FROM AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED LLCC IN A 102147Z ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH AT THE TIME SHOWED THE CIRCULATION UNDER THE CONVECTIVE PLUME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), AND THE ASCAT-B PASS MENTIONED EARLIER, WHICH DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS EMINATING FROM A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY OF INVEST 91P OFFSETTING ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THIS RELATIVELY SHALLOW STR THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE FORECAST BECOMES EXCEPTIONALLY CHALLENGING, AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 91P. AFTER TAU 24, THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE CAPTURED BY ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND CACOONED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH, THE NER TO THE NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE EAST AND WEST, LEADING TO AN OVERALL QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AS THE TWO SYSTEMS FUJIWHARA AROUND ONE ANOTHER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT AROUND TAU 48 TC 04P WILL ABSORB INVEST AREA 91P FORMING A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN VANUATU AND FIJI THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARDS ONE ANOTHER, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TC 04P, WITH DECREASED VWS AND MUCH IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH MULTIPLE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS IN THE OUTCOME OF THE BINARY INTERACTION. THE EGRR AND AFUM MODELS INDICATE THAT TC 04P WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY INTERACTION WITH 91P AND RAPIDLY TRANSIT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CORAL SEA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A NORTHWARD LOOP, BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF ALL OTHER MODEL TRACKERS. FINALLY THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH, THEN A QUASI-STATIONARY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HOWEVER IN LIGHT OF THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND KNOWN INABILITY OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TO EFFECTIVELY MODEL THE COMPLEXITIES OF BINARY INTERACTION, THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
0420120918 126S1779W 20
0420121000 126S1783W 20
0420121006 125S1787W 25
0420121012 124S1791W 30
0420121018 123S1796W 30
0420121100 121S1799E 35
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