Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOSHUA-21
Off-shore

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2021-01-19 01:54


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210119010055
2021011900 10S JOSHUA 008 02 255 11 SATL 020
T000 197S 0845E 030
T012 201S 0824E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 84.0E.
19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1029 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z
IS 12 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 169S 928E 35
1021011612 172S 921E 40
1021011618 174S 914E 35
1021011700 179S 907E 35
1021011706 184S 901E 35
1021011712 189S 894E 40
1021011718 192S 888E 40
1021011800 195S 880E 45
1021011806 195S 872E 45
1021011812 195S 863E 40
1021011818 194S 856E 30
1021011900 197S 845E 30
NNNN

>

2021-01-19 01:54


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 84.0E.
19JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1029 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AND SHEARED 130+ NM
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE LLC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS, BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.0/30KTS (FMEE HAS CLASSIFIED THIS CYCLONE AS TOO WEAK),
HAS FALLEN BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35KTS AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. AS SUCH, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2021-01-19 00:06


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190005
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 84.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1004 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

24H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

PAS DE SURPRISE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE ET L'AIR SEC EMPECHENT LE RETOUR DE LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE
A JOSHUA. DANS CES CONDITIONS, LES VENTS ESTIMES SONT DE L'ORDRE DE
25KT, LOCALEMENT 30KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD DU FAIT DU DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME.

JOSHUA VA CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR A SE DEPLACANT GLOBALEMENT VERS
L'OUEST PRIS DANS LE FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES.

CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER POUR CE SYSTEME.=

>

2021-01-19 00:06


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190005
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 84.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

NO SURPRISE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALTITUDE SHEAR AND DRY AIR
PREVENT THE RETURN OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSHUA. UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS, THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 25KT,
LOCALLY 30KT IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM.

JOSHUA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD CAUGHT
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2021-01-19 00:04


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190003
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 8 (JOSHUA) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 84.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
NIL

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2021/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
20.4 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS BULLETIN IS THE LAST ONE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2021-01-18 18:46


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 85.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 95 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

24H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

48H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST EST BIEN PRESENT TOUT COMME
L'AIR SEC. CES DEUX FACTEURS ONT EU RAISON DE LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE
A JOSHUA QUI S'EST TOTALEMENT EFFONDREE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 1536UTC FOURNIT ENCORE DES VENTS
DE 30KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE : JOSHUA EST
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE L'EXTREMITE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DU BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI
SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST IMPOSANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR
CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
48H.

LE CISAILLEMENT DEJA PRESENT EN ALTITUDE VA EGALEMENT AUGMENTER EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AINSI, L'AIR SEC DEJA PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR
OUEST VA CONTINUER D'ERODER PROGRESSIVEMENT LE COEUR CHAUD ET
AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER ENSUITE ASSEZ
RAPIDEMENT EN DEPRESSION SE DISSIPANT.=

>

2021-01-18 18:46


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 85.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

48H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE NORTHWESTERN ALTITUDE SHEAR IS WELL PRESENT AS WELL AS DRY AIR.
THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE OVERCOME THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSHUA
WHICH HAS TOTALLY COLLAPSED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST ASCAT
SWATH OF 1536UTC STILL PROVIDES WINDS OF 30KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST: JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN AND WHICH IS SHIFTING WESTWARD
IMPOSING A GLOBAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL FLOW. ALL THE GUIDES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT IN ALTITUDE WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE
AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE. THUS, THE DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN
SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY ERODE THE HOT CORE AND WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY IN DEPRESSION
DISSIPATING.=

>

2021-01-18 18:05


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181803
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (JOSHUA) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 85.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
19.2 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-01-18 14:18


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210118130125
2021011812 10S JOSHUA 007 02 270 08 SATL 045
T000 195S 0863E 040 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 193S 0844E 040 R034 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 194S 0821E 035 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 203S 0799E 035 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 211S 0777E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.3S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.4S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.3S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.1S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 85.8E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1095 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 169S 928E 35
1021011612 172S 921E 40
1021011618 174S 914E 35
1021011700 179S 907E 35
1021011706 184S 901E 35
1021011712 189S 894E 40
1021011718 192S 888E 40
1021011800 195S 880E 45
1021011806 195S 872E 45
1021011812 195S 863E 40
NNNN

>

2021-01-18 13:57


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.3S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.4S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.3S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.1S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 85.8E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1095 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. AN 181111Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS JUST LOCATED UNDER
A WEAK CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE PGTW/FMEE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL SST
VALUES (26C). HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. TC 10S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2021-01-18 12:06


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/8/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 86.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 45
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 20 SO: 30 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 55

36H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST CONTINUE DE SE METTRE EN
PLACE ET AFFECTE DESORMAIS TRES CLAIREMENT LA STRUCTURE DE JOSHUA. LE
CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE SURFACE N'EST PAS ENCORE VISIBLE MAIS RESTE
SITUE EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 0815Z ET AMSR2 DE 0747Z CONFIRMENT QUE LE
PROCESSUS D'EROSION DU COEUR CHAUD EST EN COURS, AVEC DES
PRECIPITATIONS INTENSES CONFINEES DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
L'EXTREMITE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA
PARTIE OUEST DU BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST
IMPOSANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE
DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT
EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, MEME SI LA DISPERSION DE
L'ENSEMBLE RESTE MODEREE.

JOSHUA CONNAIT UNE DEGRADATION GRADUELLE DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT : LE
CISAILLEMENT DEJA PRESENT EN ALTITUDE VA EGALEMENT AUGMENTER EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AINSI, L'AIR SEC DEJA PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR
OUEST VA CONTINUER D'ERODER PROGRESSIVEMENT LE COEUR CHAUD ET
AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER
ENSUITE ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LES MODELES
DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.=

>

2021-01-18 12:06


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 86.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 45
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 20 SW: 30 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND CLEARLY
AFFECT JOSHUA'S CLOUD PATTERN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT
YET VISIBLE BUT REMINAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE
MAIN CONVECTION. THE 0815Z GMI AND 0747Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES CONFIRMED
THAT THE EROSION OF THE WARM CORE IS UNDER WAY, WITH INTENSE RAINS
ONLY LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN. THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD,
IMPOSING A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD STEERING FLOW. THE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS TRACK, WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ENSEMBLE DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

JOSHUA IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF ITS
ENVIRONMENT : THE SHEAR ALREADY LOCATED IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHORTLY INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVELS. THUS, THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE WARM CORE THUS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.=

>

2021-01-18 12:05


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181205
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 86.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
19.4 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 30 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 10 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-01-18 07:44


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180739 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
MODIFICATION POINT DE 06UTC AU LIEU DE 00UTC
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 87.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 35

24H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 21/01/2021 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE MAINTIENT PRES DU CENTRE MAIS L'AIR SEC A
DEJA BIEN ERODE LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'EXTENSION DE LA
CONVECTION EST DESORMAIS DE PETITE TAILLE. LES ARCS DE CIRRUS DEJA
PRESENTS SUR L'IMAGE SATELLITE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET LES
ANALYSES DU CIMSS SUGGERENT DEJA UNE MODESTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LA PASSE ASCAT-A DE LA MATINEE COUVRE TOUTE LA
CIRCULATION EST MONTRE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ATTEIGNANT ENCORE 40KT,
AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.
L'IMAGE AMSU-B ASSOCIEE REVELE CEPENDANT UNE DEGRADATION NETTE DE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME PAR RAPPORT AUX IMAGES MICRO_ONDES
PRECEDENTES, AVEC LA DISPARITION TOTALE DE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION.

EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
L'EXTREMITE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA
PARTIE OUEST DU BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST
IMPOSANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE
DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT
EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, MEME SI LA DISPERSION DE
L'ENSEMBLE RESTE MODEREE.

JOSHUA VA CONNAITRE UNE DEGRADATION GRADUELLE DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT :
LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AUGMENTER ET L'AIR SEC
DEJA PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ERODER LE COEUR
CHAUD ET AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
EVOLUER ENSUITE ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.=

>

2021-01-18 07:44


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180739 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
MODIFICATION POINT DE 06UTC AU LIEU DE 00UTC
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 87.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/21 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL MAINTAINS OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT
DRY AIR ALREADY ERODED A MAJOR PART OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
MAIN CONVECTION IS NOW COVERING A SMALL AREA. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARCS IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND CIMSS ANALYSIS ALREADY SUGGEST THAT A
LIGHT NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER SHEAR CONSTRAINT AFFECTS JOSHUA. THIS
MORNING ASCAT-A SWATH REVEALED MAX WINDS STILLR EACHING 40KTS AS WELL
AS GALE FORCE WINDS ALSO LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
ASSOCIATED AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWED A CLEAR DETERIORATION OF THE INNER
STRUCTURE WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION RING SEEN ON THE
PRECEDENT MW IMAGES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN. THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD,
IMPOSING A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD STEERING FLOW. THE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS TRACK, WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ENSEMBLE DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

JOSHUA IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF ITS
ENVIRONMENT : THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE WARM CORE THUS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.=

>

2021-01-18 06:01


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180527
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 87.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

24H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE MAINTIENT PRES DU CENTRE MAIS L'AIR SEC A
DEJA BIEN ERODE LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME. L'EXTENSION DE LA
CONVECTION EST DESORMAIS DE PETITE TAILLE. LES ARCS DE CIRRUS DEJA
PRESENTS SUR L'IMAGE SATELLITE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST ET LES
ANALYSES DU CIMSS SUGGERENT DEJA UNE MODESTE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LA PASSE ASCAT-A DE LA MATINEE COUVRE TOUTE LA
CIRCULATION EST MONTRE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX ATTEIGNANT ENCORE 40KT,
AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD.
L'IMAGE AMSU-B ASSOCIEE REVELE CEPENDANT UNE DEGRADATION NETTE DE LA
STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME PAR RAPPORT AUX IMAGES MICRO_ONDES
PRECEDENTES, AVEC LA DISPARITION TOTALE DE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION.

EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
L'EXTREMITE OCCIDENTALE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA
PARTIE OUEST DU BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST
IMPOSANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE
DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT
EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H, MEME SI LA DISPERSION DE
L'ENSEMBLE RESTE MODEREE.

JOSHUA VA CONNAITRE UNE DEGRADATION GRADUELLE DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT :
LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT AUGMENTER ET L'AIR SEC
DEJA PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ERODER LE COEUR
CHAUD ET AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
EVOLUER ENSUITE ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE. LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.=

>

2021-01-18 06:01


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180527
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 87.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL MAINTAINS OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT
DRY AIR ALREADY ERODED A MAJOR PART OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
MAIN CONVECTION IS NOW COVERING A SMALL AREA. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARCS IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND CIMSS ANALYSIS ALREADY SUGGEST THAT A
LIGHT NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER SHEAR CONSTRAINT AFFECTS JOSHUA. THIS
MORNING ASCAT-A SWATH REVEALED MAX WINDS STILLR EACHING 40KTS AS WELL
AS GALE FORCE WINDS ALSO LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
ASSOCIATED AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWED A CLEAR DETERIORATION OF THE INNER
STRUCTURE WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION RING SEEN ON THE
PRECEDENT MW IMAGES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE WESTERN
PART OF THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN. THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD,
IMPOSING A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD STEERING FLOW. THE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS TRACK, WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ENSEMBLE DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

JOSHUA IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF ITS
ENVIRONMENT : THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE WARM CORE THUS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.=

>

2021-01-18 06:01


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180552
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 87.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-01-18 02:29


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210118020247
2021011800 10S JOSHUA 006 02 235 08 SATL 060
T000 197S 0879E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 200S 0863E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 201S 0841E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 203S 0819E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 209S 0797E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.1S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.9S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 87.5E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10047 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIAMI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 169S 928E 35
1021011612 172S 921E 40
1021011618 174S 914E 35
1021011700 179S 907E 35
1021011706 184S 901E 35
1021011712 189S 894E 40
1021011718 192S 886E 40
1021011800 197S 879E 40
NNNN

>

2021-01-18 02:28


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 87.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.0S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.1S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.9S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 87.5E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS STARTED FLARING AGAIN NEAR THE
LLCC AS THE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.
TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE WEST AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WOULD ARGUE FOR
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS WELL. WHILE THE LLCC WAS OBSCURED AT THE
180000Z HOUR, EXTRAPOLATION OF A LOW EMISSIVITY REGION AND WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN A 172238Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, LEND MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-
45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.4. TC 10S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 24,
WITH A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD AFTER THIS POINT TOWARDS A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
HAS CONSISTENTLY TRACKED THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 50NM SPREAD AT
TAU 48. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
UNDER MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2021-01-18 01:16


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180107
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/8/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 87.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

24H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 21/01/2021 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

AU COURS DE LA NUIT L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A ETE PLUS REGULIERE MAIS
CANTONNEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ESSENTIELLEMENT. LE SYSTEME
SUBIT VISIBLEMENT UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD (CISAILLEMENT PROFOND) ET
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES RECENTE MONTRE UNE DEGRADATION DE LA STRUTURE
EN BASSES COUCHES. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 40 KT.

EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
BOUT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DU
BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST IMPOSANT UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H.

SUIVANTE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA VA GRADUELLEMENT CONNAITRE UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SE DEGRADANT: LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
AUGMENTE ET L'AIR SEC DEJA PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST VA
PROGRESSIVEMENT ERODER LA CONVECTION ET AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT LE
SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER ENSUITE ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.=

>

2021-01-18 01:16


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180107
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 87.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 85.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5; CI=3.0-

DURING THE NIGHT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOWN LESS FLUCTUATIONS BUT
WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ESSENTIALLY. THE SYSTEM IS
VISIBLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTH (DEEP LAYERS SHEAR) AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGING SHOWS A DEGRADATION OF THE STRUCTURE IN LOW LEVELS.
AS A CONSEQUENCE THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE END
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN AND WHICH IS SHIFTING WESTWARD IMPOSING A GLOBAL
DIRECTIONAL FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST. ALL THE GUIDES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, JOSHUA IS NOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN
INCREASING UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: THE MID LEVELS SHEAR
WILL INCREASE AND THE DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE CONVECTION AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY INTO A REMNANT LOW.=

>

2021-01-18 00:46


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180045
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/01/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 87.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 85.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-01-17 19:19


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171910
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/8/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 88.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 18/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SO: 45 NO: 0

36H: 19/01/2021 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 19/01/2021 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 20/01/2021 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 20/01/2021 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A BEAUCOUP FLUCTE AU SEIN DE CE SYSTEME MAIS
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE MONTRE QU'UN COEUR CENTRAL S'EST CONSTITUE. LA
PASS SCATSAT DE 1330Z MONTRE DES VENTS DE 45 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES A 40/45 KT. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST DONC
AUGMENTEE A 45KT.

EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
BOUT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DU
BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST IMPOSANT UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H.

SUIVANTE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA SE RETROUVE AVEC DES CONDITIONS
D'INTENSIFICATION MARGINALEMENT FAVORABLES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE) A UN MAINTIEN VOIRE UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION POUR LES PROCHAINES HEURES. DES DEMAIN LE
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AUGMENTE ET L'AIR SEC DEJA
PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ERODER LA CONVECTION
ET AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER
ENSUITE ASSEZ RAPIDEMENT EN DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.=

>

2021-01-17 19:19


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171910
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 88.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 86.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY BLURRED IN THIS SYSTEM, BUT MICROWAVE
IMAGING SHOWS THAT A CENTRAL CORE HAS FORMED. THE SCATSAT PASS OF
1330Z SHOWS WINDS OF 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
AT 40/45 KT. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 45KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE END
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN AND WHICH IS SHIFTING WESTWARD IMPOSING A GLOBAL
DIRECTIONAL FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST. ALL THE GUIDES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, JOSHUA FINDS ITSELF WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS (LOW WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE)
WITH A MAINTENANCE OR EVEN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
HOURS. TOMORROW THE MID LEVELS SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND THE DRY AIR
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
CONVECTION AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN EVOLVE QUITE
RAPIDLY INTO A REMNANT LOW.=

>

2021-01-17 18:50


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171849
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/01/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 88.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
19.4 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-01-17 14:29


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210117135748
2021011712 10S JOSHUA 005 02 235 08 SATL 020
T000 189S 0894E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 193S 0880E 040 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 195S 0861E 040 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 196S 0842E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 198S 0821E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 210S 0779E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 224S 0739E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 89.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 89.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.3S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.0S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.4S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 89.0E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1214 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 169S 928E 35
1021011612 172S 921E 40
1021011618 174S 914E 35
1021011700 179S 907E 35
1021011706 184S 901E 35
1021011712 189S 894E 40
NNNN

>

2021-01-17 14:25


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 89.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 89.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.3S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.0S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.4S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 89.0E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1214 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171241Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (26-27C). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF A PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 171200Z
ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.9 (ABOUT 45 KNOTS). TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTER
TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 125-175NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 10S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36
BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER
SST VALUES (25-26C), WEAK OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2021-01-17 12:17


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171214
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/8/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 89.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 18/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

24H: 18/01/2021 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

36H: 19/01/2021 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 19/01/2021 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 20/01/2021 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 55

72H: 20/01/2021 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2021 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

INITIALEMENT SUIVIE PAR LE BOM PAR LE BIAIS DES BULLETINS IDW27600,
LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODERE JOSHUA EST RENTREE A 09UTC SUR LE BASSIN
SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN DONT LE CMRS DE LA REUNION A LA
RESPONSABILITE. CE SYSTEME DEFINIT DONC LE 8EME SYSTEME SUIVI PAR LE
CMRS DE LA REUNION MAIS CONSERVE SON NOM DE BAPTEME AUSTRALIEN :
JOSHUA. AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES ET PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
ANALYSE FAITE PAR LE BOM, JOSHUA PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
QUI REPREND DE LA VIGUEUR AVEC DES SOMMETS DE NUAGES QUI
REFROIDISSENT. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST AUSSI ETENDUE DANS LE
SECTEUR SUD DU SYSTEME DEFINISSANT UNE CONFIGURATION PROCHE DU CDO
AVEC UN CENTRE EN BORDURE NORD DE LA CONVECTION, TRES CERTAINEMENT EN
LIEN AVEC LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC S'ENROULANT DEPUIS LE SECTEUR OUEST
JUSQUE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. EN
L'ABSENCE DE PASSE ASCAT EXPLOITABLE AU COURS DE CES DERNIERES
HEURES, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
40KT.

EN TERME DE PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
BOUT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PRESENTE SUR LA PARTIE OUEST DU
BASSIN AUSTRALIEN ET QUI SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST IMPOSANT UN FLUX
DIRECTEUR GLOBAL VERS L'OUEST. L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE QUI DEVRAIT EVOLUER PEU AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 48H. PAR LA SUITE, EN LIEN AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
JOSHUA, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR SERA LOCALISE PLUS EN BASSES COUCHES ET
PRENDRA UNE DIRECTION OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST AU COURS DE LA
FIN DE VIE DE JOSHUA.

SUIVANTE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, JOSHUA SE RETROUVE AVEC DES CONDITIONS
D'INTENSIFICATION MARGINALEMENT FAVORABLES (FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT ET BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE) A UN MAINTIEN VOIRE UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION POUR LES PROCHAINES 12HEURES. PAR LA SUITE, L'AIR SEC
DEJA PRESENT DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST ET NORD VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ERODER
LA CONVECTION ET AFFAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT LE SYSTEME. L'AIR SEC
OMNIPRESENT ET L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DU FAIT DU
PASSAGE DE TALWEG PLUS AU SUD VONT LAISSER JOSHUA AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE A ECHEANCE DE 4/5 JOURS.=

>

2021-01-17 12:17


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 89.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 87.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/18 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 85.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55

72H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY THE BOM THROUGH THE IDW27600 BULLETINS, THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM JOSHUA ENTERED THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN
BASIN FOR WHICH THE RSMC OF THE REUNION HAS THE RESPONSIBILITY. THIS
SYSTEM THUS DEFINES THE 8TH SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY THE RSMC OF THE
REUNION BUT KEEPS ITS AUSTRALIAN NAME: JOSHUA. DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS AND COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS MADE BY THE BOM, JOSHUA
PRESENTS A CLOUDY CONFIGURATION THAT IS REGAINING STRENGTH WITH CLOUD
TOPS THAT ARE COOLING. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALSO SPREAD IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DEFINING A CONFIGURATION CLOSE TO THE
CDO WITH A CENTER AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION, MOST
CERTAINLY RELATED TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ROLLING FROM THE WESTERN
SECTOR TO THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY EXPLOITABLE ASCAT SWATH DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE END
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT ON THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AUSTRALIAN BASIN AND WHICH IS SHIFTING WESTWARD IMPOSING A GLOBAL
DIRECTIONAL FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST. ALL THE GUIDES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IN CONNECTION WITH THE WEAKENING OF JOSHUA, THE
GUIDING FLOW WILL BE LOCALIZED MORE IN LOW LAYERS AND WILL TAKE A
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND AFTER SOUTHWEST DIRECTION DURING THE END OF
JOSHUA'S LIFE.

FOLLOWING THIS TRACK, JOSHUA FINDS ITSELF WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS (LOW WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE)
WITH A MAINTENANCE OR EVEN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTOR WILL PROGRESSIVELY ERODE THE CONVECTION AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE OMNIPRESENT DRY AIR AND THE INCREASE OF THE
ALTITUDE SHEAR DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WILL
LEAVE JOSHUA AT THE STAGE OF REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF 4/5 DAYS.=

>

2021-01-17 12:09


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 171204
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/01/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (JOSHUA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 89.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 87.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
18.9 S / 85.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2021-01-17 08:14


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210117071715
2021011706 10S JOSHUA 004 02 235 09 SATL 030
T000 184S 0899E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 189S 0885E 040 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 193S 0868E 040 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 195S 0850E 040 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 198S 0829E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 207S 0787E 035 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 218S 0752E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.9S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.3S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.7S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 89.5E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1222 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 169S 928E 35
1021011612 172S 921E 40
1021011618 174S 914E 35
1021011700 179S 907E 35
1021011706 184S 899E 35
NNNN

>

2021-01-17 08:07


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.9S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.3S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.8S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.7S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 89.5E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1222 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 170326Z MHS
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LIMITED, FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONDUCIVE
SST VALUES (26-27C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND A 170600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.4. TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NVGI AND EGRI, WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTER
TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 110-
150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL WEAKEN STEADILY
AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST VALUES (25-26C), WEAK
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELOISE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2021-01-16 20:23


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210116194410
2021011618 10S JOSHUA 003 01 245 07 SATL 040
T000 175S 0914E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 180S 0900E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 187S 0884E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 191S 0867E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 191S 0852E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 196S 0811E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 213S 0760E 030
T120 231S 0720E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 91.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.0S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.7S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.1S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.1S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.1S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 91.0E.
16JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, WITH REMNANT FLARING, SHALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW FIX POSITION IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIX OF T2.5, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE APRF ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) IN LIGHT OF THE DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION. TC 10S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CORE CONVECTION, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AS IT TRANSITS THROUGH AN OTHERWISE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (26-27 DEG C) SSTS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATION OF THE STR TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE STR IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW RESULTING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THERAFTER, THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSPIRE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 40NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 160NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST POLEWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS , CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 169S 928E 35
1021011612 172S 921E 40
1021011618 175S 914E 35
NNNN

>

2021-01-16 20:22


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 91.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.0S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.7S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.1S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.1S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.6S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.3S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.1S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 91.0E.
16JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (JOSHUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1265 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE PREVIOUS SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, WITH REMNANT FLARING, SHALLOW
CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A PGTW FIX POSITION IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIX OF T2.5, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE APRF ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) IN LIGHT OF THE
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION. TC 10S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CORE
CONVECTION, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AS IT
TRANSITS THROUGH AN OTHERWISE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (26-27 DEG C) SSTS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24, THEN MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO AN ELONGATION OF THE STR TO AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE STR IN RESPONSE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW RESULTING IN A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS AND CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONSPIRE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A 40NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO 160NM AT
TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST POLEWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS , CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-01-16 09:05


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210116082151
2021011606 10S TEN 002 01 260 06 SATL 040
T000 166S 0929E 035 R034 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 172S 0915E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 178S 0902E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 183S 0888E 040 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 186S 0873E 045 R034 025 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 189S 0842E 045 R034 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T096 198S 0791E 040 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 218S 0740E 035 R034 090 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 92.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 92.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.3S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.6S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.9S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 92.5E.
16JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1325
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.
//
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 158S 948E 30
1021011518 162S 942E 35
1021011600 165S 935E 35
1021011606 166S 929E 35
NNNN

>

2021-01-16 09:04


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 92.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 92.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.3S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.6S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.9S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 92.5E.
16JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1325
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 160515Z
PGTW SATELLITE FIX ON MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160233Z
PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND APRF AND EXTENSIVE
ZONES OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN THE 160233Z ASCAT DATA. TC 10S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTION
HAS FLARED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER RECENTLY, SUPPORTED BY
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE (NEAR
27C). TC 10S IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DIP A BIT POLEWARD IN THE NEAR-
TERM AND ONCE AGAIN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, AFTER TAU 96, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES AND REORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU
48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER WILL LIKELY REVERSE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES EQUATORWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON RECENTLY-OBSERVED WESTWARD MOTION AND NUMERICAL MODEL
FORECAST TRENDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. DESPITE A SMALL INCREASE IN MODEL SPREAD
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-01-15 20:45


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 210115195035
2021011518 10S TEN 001 01 230 08 SATL 060
T000 164S 0941E 035 R034 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 171S 0931E 040 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 175S 0918E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 181S 0906E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 186S 0896E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 193S 0871E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 197S 0829E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 215S 0788E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142151ZJAN2021//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 94.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 94.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.5S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.1S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.7S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.5S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 93.8E.
15JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1590
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OBSURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN THE SOUTWEST CORNER OF A SEMI-ELONGATED CIRCULATION IN A 151459Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0(30 KNOTS) DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A SWATH 30-35 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM APRF. ANAYLSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 10S IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE STR REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION, TC 10S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TOWRADS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TC 10S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAU 48 DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DUE TO INCREASING VERRTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOSITURE, AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.
1021011212 106S1000E 20
1021011218 111S 996E 20
1021011300 114S 990E 25
1021011306 116S 984E 25
1021011312 118S 979E 30
1021011318 121S 975E 25
1021011400 128S 973E 25
1021011406 135S 969E 25
1021011412 140S 966E 30
1021011418 145S 961E 30
1021011500 149S 958E 30
1021011506 154S 953E 30
1021011512 159S 947E 30
1021011518 164S 941E 35
NNNN

>

2021-01-15 20:43


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/142151ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 94.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 94.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.1S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.5S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.1S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.7S 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.5S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 93.8E.
15JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1590
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION OBSURING A CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, IN THE SOUTWEST CORNER OF A SEMI-ELONGATED CIRCULATION
IN A 151459Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0(30 KNOTS) DUE
TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A SWATH 30-
35 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
FROM APRF. ANAYLSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-27C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 10S
IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE STR
REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION, TC 10S WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK MORE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TOWRADS A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR. TC 10S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50
KNOTS AT TAU 48 DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU
72, THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DUE TO INCREASING VERRTICAL
WIND SHEAR, DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOSITURE, AND CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130 NM
SPREAD AT TAU 120, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 142200).//
NNNN

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