Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIMI-21
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210118193544
2021011818 11P KIMI 008 01 315 01 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 177S 1474E 035 R034 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 178S 1473E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.8S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.4E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 12 FEET.
//
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1465E 35
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011806 178S1471E 50
1121011806 178S1471E 50
1121011809 181S1474E 40
1121011812 178S1475E 35
1121011818 177S1474E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.8S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.4E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 12 FEET.
//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210118132000
2021011812 11P KIMI 007 01 090 04 SATL RADR SYNP 040
T000 178S 1475E 035 R034 000 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 173S 1473E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 167S 1469E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.5E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1465E 35
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011806 178S1471E 50
1121011806 178S1471E 50
1121011809 181S1474E 40
1121011812 178S1475E 35

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 147.5E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR DEPICT DECAYING
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN 181059Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND
35-40 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS AND ALSO
SUPPORTS THE ABRUPT EQUATORWARD TRACK CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST, THE SYSTEM IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND HAS DE-COUPLED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER) BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY
TAU 24. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR
MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210118082334
2021011806 11P KIMI 006 01 150 08 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 178S 1471E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T012 180S 1473E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T024 181S 1476E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T036 179S 1477E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 175S 1474E 040 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 169S 1468E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5S 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.9S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 147.1E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1465E 35
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011806 178S1471E 55
1121011806 178S1471E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.0S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5S 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.9S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 147.1E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92
NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR, FORTUNATELY,
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), HEDGED ABOVE A 180600Z ADT
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.2 (ABOUT 50 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM SST VALUES (28-29C). TC 11P IS
LOCATED WITHIN A COMPLEX, COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE
PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAKER STR
TO THE WEST. THUS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING AN EASTWARD TURN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT (SO CALLED SQUASHED SPIDER)
BUT REFLECTS A GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH AN EQUATORWARD TRACK
CHANGE BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
(WITH COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR) IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND
STEER IT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING INFLUENCES AND POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210118010537
2021011800 11P KIMI 005 01 175 08 SATL RADR 030
T000 171S 1467E 055 R050 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 180S 1468E 060 R050 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 187S 1469E 060 R050 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T036 192S 1468E 055 R050 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T048 196S 1462E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T072 199S 1449E 035
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.7S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.2S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.6S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 146.7E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, WITH HOT TOWERS AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS EVIDENT JUST WEST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. CAIRNS RADAR DATA SHOWS A VERY CLEAR EYE-LIKE FEATURE, WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRICAL AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, AND LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY RADAR SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY HEDGED TO 55 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND ABRF WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ANTI-CYCLONE OR RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM PROVIDING BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WITH THE PREDOMINATE CHANNEL BEING POLEWARD INTO THE DIFFLUENT WESTERLIES. THE SAME RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, IS SUPPORTING THE GENERAL INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH A SPLIT DECISION ON AN EASTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK. THE HWRF, ECMWF AND GALWEM ULTIMATELY TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE THE NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS TRACKERS BRING THE SYSTEM TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION BY TAU 36 AND THEN TURN BACK NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS ONCE MORE BUT REMAINS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TURNING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 36 AS IT WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENISFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1465E 35
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
1121011800 171S1467E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 146.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 146.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.7S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 19.2S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.6S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 146.7E.
18JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION, WITH HOT TOWERS AND
OVERSHOOTING TOPS EVIDENT JUST WEST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. CAIRNS RADAR
DATA SHOWS A VERY CLEAR EYE-LIKE FEATURE, WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRICAL AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, AND LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
AS INDICATED BY RADAR SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY HEDGED TO 55
KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND ABRF WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY
AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ELONGATED ANTI-CYCLONE OR RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE
SYSTEM PROVIDING BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WITH THE
PREDOMINATE CHANNEL BEING POLEWARD INTO THE DIFFLUENT WESTERLIES. THE
SAME RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, IS SUPPORTING THE GENERAL INTENSIFICATION
TREND. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR LOCATED FAR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DISPLAYS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WITH A SPLIT DECISION ON AN
EASTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK. THE HWRF, ECMWF AND GALWEM ULTIMATELY TURN
THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER AUSTRALIA, WHILE THE NAVGEM, COAMPS-TC AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACKERS BRING THE SYSTEM TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION
BY TAU 36 AND THEN TURN BACK NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARDS ONCE MORE BUT REMAINS IN CONCURRENCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TURNING THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER AUSTRALIA AFTER
TAU 36 AS IT WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY
IN THE RUN TO RUN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENISFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VWS, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER
LANDFALL, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND
190300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210117194908
2021011718 11P KIMI 004 01 170 05 SATL RADR 030
T000 163S 1466E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 169S 1467E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 175S 1467E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 182S 1467E 055 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 190S 1465E 050 R050 000 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 195S 1452E 035
T096 196S 1435E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 146.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.5S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.0S 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6S 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 146.6E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL AREAL EXTENT BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BETWEEN ARLINGTON AND BOUGAINVILLE REEFS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS, HEDGED UPWARDS FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0, BASED ON A T3.6 CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AND A 55KT SATCON ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS BY JTWC INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK POINT SOURCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ENSCONCED BETWEEN A STRONG STR TO THE EAST AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS NOW CONCUR WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN A TURN EASTWARD, KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THOUGH TAU 120. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SINGLE CONTRARIAN, WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE, TURNS THE TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST SHIFTS THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SYTSEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE EAST, THEN TURNS WEST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 12 BUT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1465E 35
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011718 163S1466E 55
1121011718 163S1466E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 146.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.9S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.5S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.0S 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6S 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 146.6E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITS OVERALL AREAL
EXTENT BUT BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED ALONG A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. HOWEVER, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED AND WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION BETWEEN ARLINGTON AND BOUGAINVILLE REEFS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 55 KNOTS, HEDGED UPWARDS FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 3.0, BASED ON A T3.6 CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE AND A 55KT SATCON
ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS BY JTWC INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK POINT SOURCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
ADDITIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
COMBINED WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS, THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-
TERM. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, ENSCONCED BETWEEN A STRONG STR TO THE EAST AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS
SHIFTING SIGNIFICANTLY EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE MAJORITY OF
THE MEMBERS NOW CONCUR WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, THEN A
TURN EASTWARD, KEEPING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THOUGH TAU 120. THE ECMWF
REMAINS THE SINGLE CONTRARIAN, WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE, TURNS THE
TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST
SHIFTS THE TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SYTSEM TRACKS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE EAST, THEN TURNS WEST AFTER
TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND FLUIDITY IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 12 BUT
THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND OUTFLOW DECREASES AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND
182100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210117131423
2021011712 11P KIMI 003 01 180 04 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 158S 1465E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T012 165S 1462E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T024 171S 1457E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T036 175S 1450E 045
T048 177S 1440E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.5S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.1S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.5S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.7S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 146.4E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1465E 35
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45
1121011712 158S1465E 50
1121011712 158S1465E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.5S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.1S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.5S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.7S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 146.4E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
77 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION EXPANDING IN AREAL EXTENT,
OBSCURING THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF BOUGAINVILLE
REEF, WHICH IS REPORTING 25-30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE) WITH 30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND KNES, BASED ON A 171200Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.3 (50 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF TRACKERS. UEMN AND NVGM
INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO EASTWARD TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM
OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AEMN TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION
IN THE EARLY TAUS. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210117065702
2021011706 11P KIMI 002 01 160 03 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 154S 1465E 045 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 159S 1464E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T024 164S 1459E 060 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 020 NW QD
T036 168S 1453E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 171S 1444E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.9S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.4S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 146.5E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
99 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
1121011500 133S1456E 15
1121011506 134S1459E 15
1121011512 137S1461E 15
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1464E 30
1121011700 151S1464E 45
1121011706 154S1465E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 146.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 146.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.9S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.4S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.8S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 146.5E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
99 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, MIDGET TC WITH A 60-
65NM DIAMETER CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. A 170425Z GMI 89GHZ
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CAIRNS RADAR ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
LOCATED JUST WEST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, WHICH IS REPORTING 25-30
KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) WITH 30-35 KNOT GUSTS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT
DATA, HOWEVER, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND ABRF REMAIN
LOWER AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE THE 170630Z ADT ESTIMATE IS HIGHER AT
3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TC
11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND TWO DISCRETE GROUPS OF
TRACKERS. UEMN, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THAT HOLDS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WHILE AVNO, EEMN, ECMF AND AFUM
TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND, SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION
IN THE EARLY TAUS. TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH RAPID WEAKENING OVER LAND AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY AS MIDGET CYCLONES CAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNEXPECTEDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11P SWP 210117021916
2021011700 11P KIMI 001 01 180 03 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 151S 1464E 045 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 155S 1464E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 160S 1462E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 165S 1458E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 169S 1449E 040 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 173S 1437E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 146.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 146.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.0S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.5S 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.9S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.3S 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 146.4E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS, WITH A VERY SMALL CORE OF DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION, HOT TOWERS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING OUTSIDE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE OUTER EDGES OF A CIRCULATION SEEN IN ANIMATED RADAR DATA AND ANALYSIS OF A VERY FORTUITOUS 170004Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN A TIGHT CORE OF HIGH WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30 DEG C) SSTS AND DUE TO ITS POSITION UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, DUAL CHANNEL MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS VERY COMPLEX, WITH TWO LOBES OF A DEEP-LAYER STR, ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST COMBINING TO CREATE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, RESULTING IN A SLOW TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE STEERING PATTERN WILL CHANGE SUBTLY WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDING AND PUSHING WEST WITH A COL REGION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE STEERING PATTERN, TC 11P SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, AND AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING IT FURTHER INLAND TO THE WEST OF CAIRNS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS JUST AFTER TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION COUPLED WITH INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNSURPRISINGLY IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO VERY SMALL NATURE OF THE STORM STRUCTURE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE PRESENTS A RANGE OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FROM A TRACK DUE SOUTH THEN CURVING NORTHWARD, TO A DUE WEST TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC TREND AND DOES NOT FAVOR ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKER, THUS LENDING VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBSEQUENTLY VERY LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
1121011500 133S1456E 15
1121011506 134S1459E 15
1121011512 137S1461E 15
1121011518 140S1463E 15
1121011600 142S1464E 20
1121011606 144S1465E 25
1121011612 146S1465E 30
1121011618 148S1464E 30
1121011700 151S1464E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162221JAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 146.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 146.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.5S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.0S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.5S 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.9S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.3S 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 146.4E.
17JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (KIMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED INTO A MIDGET
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS, WITH A VERY SMALL CORE
OF DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION, HOT TOWERS WITH OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND
CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING OUTSIDE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF THE OUTER EDGES OF A CIRCULATION SEEN IN ANIMATED RADAR
DATA AND ANALYSIS OF A VERY FORTUITOUS 170004Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER
BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS
WHICH SHOWED 40-45 KNOT WINDS IN A TIGHT CORE OF HIGH WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED VERY QUICKLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (29-30 DEG C)
SSTS AND DUE TO ITS POSITION UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, DUAL
CHANNEL MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN
IS VERY COMPLEX, WITH TWO LOBES OF A DEEP-LAYER STR, ONE TO THE NORTH
AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTH, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST COMBINING TO CREATE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, RESULTING IN A
SLOW TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
THE STEERING PATTERN WILL CHANGE SUBTLY WITH THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDING AND PUSHING WEST WITH A COL REGION DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN AUSTRALIA. IN RESPONSE TO THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE STEERING
PATTERN, TC 11P SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS, AND AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING IT FURTHER
INLAND TO THE WEST OF CAIRNS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL NORTH OF
CAIRNS JUST AFTER TAU 36. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION COUPLED WITH
INCREASING VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNSURPRISINGLY IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT DUE TO VERY SMALL NATURE OF THE STORM STRUCTURE. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE PRESENTS A RANGE OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FROM A TRACK DUE
SOUTH THEN CURVING NORTHWARD, TO A DUE WEST TRACK INTO THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC TREND AND
DOES NOT FAVOR ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKER, THUS LENDING VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
TRACK FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBSEQUENTLY
VERY LOW AS WELL. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 162230).//
NNNN

>