Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for THIRTEEN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 86.5E.
28JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
925 SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK,
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED 130NM+ TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE WEAK BUT
DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE 272212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE SATCON ADT
ESTIMATE OF 25KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEGRADED EIR
SATELLITE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS UNDER 25KT+ OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
THE STORM MOTION HAS BECOME 90DEG OUT-OF-PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW THE JTWC WARNING INTENSITY CRITERIA OF 35KTS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. THE REMNANTS WILL PROPAGATE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, BY TAU
72, AS IT DRIFTS INTO WARMER SST (28C), THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 91.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 91.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.3S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.9S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.7S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.1S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 91.3E.
27JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1342 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS THAT THEY SYSTEM IS BEING INFLUENCED BY SUBSTANTIAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE EXPOSED LLCC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 262225Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC, PROVIDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30
KTS) BASED ON A 262340Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KTS) AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS)
NORTHERLY VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MARGINAL SSTS (26C) AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR
ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48, MAINTAINING AN AVERAGE
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HIGHER EXCURSIONS ON
A DIURNAL CYCLE. IF IT SURVIVES PASSAGE THROUGH THIS MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU
72, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 210128010150
2021012800 13S THIRTEEN 015 01 280 13 SATL 020
T000 189S 0874E 025
T012 185S 0837E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 86.5E.
28JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
925 SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
1321011900 120S1090E 15
1321011906 120S1080E 15
1321011912 125S1064E 20
1321011918 127S1047E 20
1321012000 129S1028E 25
1321012006 128S1009E 25
1321012012 128S 995E 30
1321012018 124S 985E 30
1321012100 124S 977E 35
1321012106 126S 974E 35
1321012112 129S 974E 35
1321012118 130S 974E 35
1321012200 131S 973E 35
1321012206 132S 973E 35
1321012212 133S 973E 35
1321012218 137S 972E 35
1321012300 140S 971E 35
1321012306 144S 975E 35
1321012312 148S 976E 35
1321012318 153S 977E 30
1321012400 158S 974E 30
1321012406 161S 966E 30
1321012412 162S 963E 30
1321012418 164S 961E 30
1321012500 166S 959E 35
1321012506 172S 959E 35
1321012512 177S 958E 35
1321012518 182S 954E 35
1321012600 186S 949E 35
1321012606 189S 945E 35
1321012612 193S 941E 35
1321012618 195S 936E 35
1321012700 195S 922E 35
1321012706 195S 914E 30
1321012712 193S 897E 30
1321012718 191S 888E 25
1321012800 189S 874E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 210127132732
2021012712 13S THIRTEEN 014 01 275 10 SATL 045
T000 194S 0903E 030
T012 190S 0873E 030
T024 186S 0840E 030
T036 181S 0807E 030
T048 175S 0774E 035 R034 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T072 164S 0710E 035 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 154S 0653E 040 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 148S 0606E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 90.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.1S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.5S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 89.5E.
27JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1861 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
1321011900 120S1090E 15
1321011906 120S1080E 15
1321011912 125S1064E 20
1321011918 127S1047E 20
1321012000 129S1028E 25
1321012006 128S1009E 25
1321012012 128S 995E 30
1321012018 124S 985E 30
1321012100 124S 977E 35
1321012106 126S 974E 35
1321012112 129S 974E 35
1321012118 130S 974E 35
1321012200 131S 973E 35
1321012206 132S 973E 35
1321012212 133S 973E 35
1321012218 137S 972E 35
1321012300 140S 971E 35
1321012306 144S 975E 35
1321012312 148S 976E 35
1321012318 153S 977E 30
1321012400 158S 974E 30
1321012406 161S 966E 30
1321012412 162S 963E 30
1321012418 164S 961E 30
1321012500 166S 959E 35
1321012506 172S 959E 35
1321012512 177S 958E 35
1321012518 182S 954E 35
1321012600 186S 949E 35
1321012606 189S 945E 35
1321012612 193S 941E 35
1321012618 195S 936E 35
1321012700 195S 922E 35
1321012706 195S 914E 30
1321012712 194S 903E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 210127013825
2021012700 13S THIRTEEN 013 01 270 13 SATL 040
T000 195S 0918E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 193S 0898E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 189S 0871E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 183S 0839E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 177S 0800E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 163S 0734E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 151S 0673E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 145S 0620E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 91.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 91.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.3S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.9S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.7S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.1S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 91.3E.
27JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1342 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT THEY SYSTEM IS BEING INFLUENCED BY SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE EXPOSED LLCC IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 262225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON A 262340Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) NORTHERLY VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MARGINAL SSTS (26C) AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48, MAINTAINING AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HIGHER EXCURSIONS ON A DIURNAL CYCLE. IF IT SURVIVES PASSAGE THROUGH THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 72, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.//
1321011900 120S1090E 15
1321011906 120S1080E 15
1321011912 125S1064E 20
1321011918 127S1047E 20
1321012000 129S1028E 25
1321012006 128S1009E 25
1321012012 128S 995E 30
1321012018 124S 985E 30
1321012100 124S 977E 35
1321012106 126S 974E 35
1321012112 129S 974E 35
1321012118 130S 974E 35
1321012200 131S 973E 35
1321012206 132S 973E 35
1321012212 133S 973E 35
1321012218 137S 972E 35
1321012300 140S 971E 35
1321012306 144S 975E 35
1321012312 148S 976E 35
1321012318 153S 977E 30
1321012400 158S 974E 30
1321012406 161S 966E 30
1321012412 162S 963E 30
1321012418 164S 961E 30
1321012500 166S 959E 35
1321012506 172S 959E 35
1321012512 177S 958E 35
1321012518 182S 954E 35
1321012600 186S 949E 35
1321012606 189S 945E 35
1321012612 193S 941E 35
1321012618 195S 932E 35
1321012700 195S 918E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 90.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 90.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.1S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.5S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4S 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.4S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.8S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 89.5E.
27JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1861 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 271058Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25
KNOTS) BASED ON A 261100Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL SST VALUES (26-27C)
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE
SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY
GRADUALLY AFTER TAU 36 AS SST VALUES (28-29C) WARM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 93.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 93.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.4S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.1S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.1S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 93.4E.
26JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
2065 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 261221Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.0(30 KNOTS) BASED ON A 261200Z ADT ESTIMATE
OF 2.5(35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL
SST VALUES (26C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE UNDER
MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SST
VALUES (28-29C) WARM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 95.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 95.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.3S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.4S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.2S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.3S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.6S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 95.3E.
25JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT FLARING CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD
TRACING IN MSI AND THE LLC FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 251235Z SSMIS 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. ASSESSED AT 35 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DERIVED FROM OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5-2.9
(25-43 KTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE IMPROVED OVERHEAD CONVECTION AT
SYNOPTIC TIME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VWS, FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27
CELSIUS. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG A SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE,
DRIVING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR
LIMITED INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KTS BY TAU 24. THEN, INCREASING VWS
WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD, TEMPERING THE
INTENSITY TO 35 KTS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST, TC 13S SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE EQUATORWARD AND INTO WARMER (28 CELSIUS) SST, ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH
DEPICTS A SHARP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 12. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 95.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 95.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.3S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.4S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.2S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.3S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.6S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 95.3E.
25JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT FLARING CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FOR THE
PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO THE DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD
TRACING IN MSI AND THE LLC FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 251235Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ASSESSED AT 35 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DERIVED
FROM OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5-2.9 (25-43 KTS)
AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE IMPROVED OVERHEAD CONVECTION AT SYNOPTIC TIME.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, FAIR WESTWARD
OUTFLOW, AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27 CELSIUS. TC 13S IS TRACKING
ALONG A SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTERWARDS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL TAKE
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, DRIVING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KTS
BY TAU 24. THEN, INCREASING VWS WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITS
WESTWARD, TEMPERING THE INTENSITY TO 35 KTS. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST, TC 13S SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EQUATORWARD AND INTO WARMER (28
CELSIUS) SST, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH DEPICTS A SHARP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN
AFTER TAU 12. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 210125142656
2021012512 13S THIRTEEN 010 01 230 06 SATL 040
T000 176S 0954E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 180S 0949E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 183S 0940E 040 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 184S 0926E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 182S 0908E 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 173S 0860E 040 R034 100 NE QD 030 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 166S 0809E 045 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 156S 0760E 045 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 95.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 95.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.0S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.3S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.4S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.2S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.3S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.6S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 95.3E.
25JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//
1321011900 120S1090E 15
1321011906 120S1080E 15
1321011912 125S1064E 20
1321011918 127S1047E 20
1321012000 129S1028E 25
1321012006 128S1009E 25
1321012012 128S 995E 30
1321012018 124S 985E 30
1321012100 124S 977E 35
1321012106 126S 974E 35
1321012112 129S 974E 35
1321012118 130S 974E 35
1321012200 131S 973E 35
1321012206 132S 973E 35
1321012212 133S 973E 35
1321012218 137S 972E 35
1321012300 140S 971E 35
1321012306 144S 975E 35
1321012312 148S 976E 35
1321012318 153S 977E 30
1321012400 158S 974E 30
1321012406 161S 966E 30
1321012412 162S 963E 30
1321012418 164S 961E 30
1321012500 166S 959E 35
1321012506 172S 959E 30
1321012512 176S 954E 35
NNNN

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