Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ODETTE-21
in Australia,

Global Telecommunication Service

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2021-04-10 02:23


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.9S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.4S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 112.6E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ODETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
217 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 27S IS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH TC 26S. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED BUT
RAPIDLY DECAYING AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MSI AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.0 (30 KTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO TC 26S WHICH
IS CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS) AND
SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW. TC 27S IS CURRENTLY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
THE FUJIWHARA INTERACTION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN TC 26S WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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2021-04-09 15:23


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 111.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.5S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.2S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.3S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 111.3E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY(EIR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN BODY OF
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF
ODETTE IS HIGH BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP, A TIMELY 091114Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE, AND TIGHT GROUPING FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES BY PGTW,
APRF, AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE
DVORAK AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW OF T2.5(35KTS), APRF T2.0(30KTS), KNES
T1.5(25KTS), AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.0(45KTS), AND LOWER THAN SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) AT 52KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, BUT
REMAINS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AS THE INTERACTION OF ODETTE AND TC 26S
(SEROJA) HAS CLOSED TO 295NM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN
BODY OF CONVECTION MAKING LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WINDOW OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
CLOSING, AND NO FURTHER INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 12 AS ODETTE ROTATES AROUND THE
NORTH AND THEN EAST SIDE OF SEROJA. SEROJA IS STILL EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF ODETTE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, JUST AFTER THE PAIR OF CYCLONES
CROSS THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, HOWEVER, IT HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
EAST OF PREVIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS RUNS, WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO
RESOLVE THE EXACT TIME TO DISSIPATION OF ODETTE INTO SEROJA, LENDING
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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2021-04-09 03:32


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.5S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.0S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 25.2S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 108.2E.
09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (ODETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
614 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ODETTE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL CENTER
(LLC) STAYING ANCHORED BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 51 KT FROM ADT AND 50 KTS FROM
SATCON, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 50 KTS ACCORDINGLY.
ODETTE'S ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH VERTICAL SHEAR NOW
INCREASED TO 30-35 KTS AS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ODETTE AND TC 26S
(SEROJA) CLOSES WITHIN 320 NM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS MAKING NO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, AND THE VORTEX MAY SOON STRUGGLE TO REMAIN VERTICALLY
COHERENT. THE WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE CLOSING,
AND NO FURTHER INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS IS FORECAST. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AS ODETTE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTH AND THEN
EAST SIDE OF SEROJA. BEING THE LARGER AND THUS MORE DOMINANT
CYCLONE, SEROJA WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF
ODETTE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF ODETTE BY 48 HOURS AFTER THE PAIR
OF CYCLONES CROSSES THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AS TC ODETTE'S PRECISE ORBIT AROUND TC
SEROJA COMES INTO FOCUS IN DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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