Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ANDRES-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 111.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 111.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.8N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 111.5W.
11MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1059 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z
IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 111438
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

Hostile environmental conditions have reduced Andres to an exposed,
low-level cloud swirl. Although a small burst of convection was
noted earlier this morning over 100 n mi northeast of the center,
Andres has been without organized deep convection near its center
for over 12 hours. Therefore, the cyclone has become a remnant low,
and this will be the final NHC advisory on Andres.

The remnant low is moving just south of due west and will continue
moving westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it
dissipates on Wednesday night. Overnight scatterometer data
indicated that 20-25 kt winds were confined to the northwest
quadrant of Andres, between the cyclone and a subtropical ridge to
its northwest. Continued weakening is expected as the remnant low
moves into a drier, more stable environment with increasing wind
shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures.

This is the last NHC advisory on Andres. For additional information
on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 15.8N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 111436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

...ANDRES BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ANDRES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 111.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 111.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to
dissipate on Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Andres. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 111435
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 111.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 111.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ANDRES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.9N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.8N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 111.1W.
11MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1066 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 110834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

The harsh surrounding upper wind environment has taken a toll
on Andres. The last few fragments of the depression's deep
convection dissipated around 1000 PM MDT (0400 UTC) with the
exposed center of Andres now traversing slightly cooler oceanic
temperatures. The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt
based on a 0343 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass. The strong shear
and decreasing SSTs are likely to cause Andres to become a remnant
low later this morning and degenerate into a surface trough late
Wednesday night.

The depression is moving westward, or 270/6 kt while embedded in
the low-level tradewind flow. Vertically shallow Andres and its
remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction
until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left
of the previous one, and is close to the TVCE eastern Pacific
consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 15.9N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 110833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 111.0W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 111.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Andres is
expected to become a remnant low later this morning and dissipate
late Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 110832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
0900 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.1N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.1N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 110.4W.
11MAY21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1077 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 110232
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier
today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm
activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is
nearly devoid of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at
30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres
is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a
combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the
forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant
low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS,
ECMWF, and UKMET global models.

After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has
now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low-
and mid-level centers. A continued westward motion at about 5 kt
is expected until the cyclone dissipates. This forecast is located
to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial
motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 110231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Andres is expected to become a remnant
low by Tuesday morning and dissipate by Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 110231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
0300 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.5N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.8N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.0N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 109.8W.
10MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1093
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 102036
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

Hostile environmental conditions are taking a toll on Andres this
afternoon. After a small area of convection persisted downshear of
the cyclone's partially exposed low-level center earlier today,
recent satellite images show rapidly warming cloud tops in the
northeast quadrant with no signs of new convection anywhere near the
center. Additionally, the low-level center now appears to be
completely exposed. Although T2.5 18Z Dvorak classifications were
received from SAB and TAFB, recent satellite trends and UW-CIMSS ADT
estimates indicate the system has weakened since that time.
Therefore, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt with this advisory,
making Andres a tropical depression.

Andres appeared to take a bit of a northward jog earlier today, but
the current estimated motion is 330/06 kt. The weakening, shallow
cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward and westward on
Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of a building low-level
ridge to its north. The latest track forecast is close to the center
of the guidance envelope, with just a slight adjustment to the right
of track from the previous forecast.

An upper-level ridge to the northwest of the cyclone is producing
increasing vertical wind shear over Andres. This, combined with some
drier mid-level air encroaching on the cyclone from the west, will
continue weakening Andres through its dissipation by midweek.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the
system will struggle to generate any new convection overnight, and
this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 102034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Andres Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...WEAKENING ANDRES NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 109.8W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Andres
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn to the northwest and west-northwest is expected on
Tuesday, followed by a westward motion on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a remnant low on
Tuesday and dissipate by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 102034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
2100 UTC MON MAY 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.1N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.3N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 16.2N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 109.4W.
10MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1138
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 101448
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

Andres continues to battle vertical wind shear this morning. Early
visible satellite imagery indicates the broadened circulation of the
cyclone is exposed and displaced to the southwest of a recent burst
of deep convection. Overall, the convective coverage has noticeably
decreased during the past several hours, with warming infrared cloud
top temperatures noted where a convective band wrapped around the
eastern semicircle overnight. A blend of the objective ADT and
SATCON estimates with subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and
TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt. Hopefully,
scatterometer data will become available this afternoon to better
assess the intensity of Andres.

The center of the cyclone was adjusted a bit northward this morning
based on recent visible imagery, and its estimated motion is now
330/05 kt. A general northwestward motion is expected today as
Andres moves around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge. As the cyclone spins down and becomes more vertically
shallow, it should turn more west-northwestward and then westward
under the influence of a building low-level ridge to its north. The
forecast track has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast
to account for the center adjustment, and the new track lies closer
to the reliable consensus aids including HCCA.

Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with drier and
more stable low- to mid-level air approaching from the west, suggest
a weakening trend is imminent. Andres is expected to become a
tropical depression later today and then continue weakening through
midweek as environmental conditions become increasingly hostile. GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the cyclone will
become devoid of convection by tonight, and so this forecast shows
Andres becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 101441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...DISORGANIZED ANDRES LIKELY TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 109.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 109.4 West. Andres is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
northwest and west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, followed by a
westward motion on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected to begin later today, and Andres is forecast
to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 101440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
1500 UTC MON MAY 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 109.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.2N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.6N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.0N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 109.2W.
10MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1173
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

Andres remains a sheared tropical storm with a small ball of deep
convection displaced just east of the partially exposed low-level
center. All three scatterometer passes missed Andres. The initial
intensity remains 35 kt based on consensus subjective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
objective intensity estimates of 37 kt and 35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT
and SATCON, respectively.

The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous track forecast of reasoning. The latest NHC
track model guidance continues to show Andres moving slowly
northwestward around the western edge of a deep-layer subtropical
ridge while gradually weakening and becoming more vertically
shallow. The ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to
strengthen and build westward over the next few days, which is
expected to gradually nudge Andres west-northwestward on Tuesday and
westward on Wednesday. The new official track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track, and remains along the southern edge of
the guidance envelope between the GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models,
and the HCCA and GFEX consensus track models.

Despite the ragged looking cloud pattern depicted in infrared
satellite imagery, night-viz and passive microwave satellite data
indicate that the low-level circulation has actually improved a
little since the previous advisory. However, the combination of
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of
drier and more stable low- to mid-level air from the west and
northwest is expected to induce gradual weakening later today.
Additional weakening is forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday as Andres
moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, with the cyclone
expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate
by Thursday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just
and update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of
the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...ANDRES EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 109.1W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 109.1 West. Andres is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday, followed by a westward
motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin later today, with Andres
expected to become a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
0900 UTC MON MAY 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.1W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.1W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.9N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.05.2021

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 108.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.05.2021 0 14.5N 108.2W 1005 24
1200UTC 10.05.2021 12 15.0N 108.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 11.05.2021 24 16.1N 108.8W 1005 22
1200UTC 11.05.2021 36 16.7N 109.6W 1005 23
0000UTC 12.05.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100403

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.05.2021

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 108.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.05.2021 14.5N 108.2W WEAK
12UTC 10.05.2021 15.0N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.05.2021 16.1N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.05.2021 16.7N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.05.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100403

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.8N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.4N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.8N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.9N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.9N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 109.0W.
10MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1205
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 100236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021

Andres remains a ragged-looking tropical cyclone this evening. The
majority of the deep convection is displaced well to the east of
the low-level center and there is little evidence of banding
features. Dvorak intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB still
support an intensity of 35 kt, and that value is used as the initial
wind speed for this advisory, although that may be generous given
the recent satellite presentation. Overnight scatterometer data
should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity.

Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air
should cause Andres to begin to weaken overnight or on Monday, if
that weakening trend has not already begun. Andres is forecast to
move into an area of even higher shear by Monday night or early
Tuesday, and this should cause the cyclone to become a remnant low
in about 36 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to gradually
spin down and dissipate by day 3 as indicated by the global models.

Andres has moved a little more westerly over the past 12-24 hours
than anticipated, but a longer term motion is northwestward or
305/5 kt. The track guidance insists that the cyclone will gain
more latitude during the next day or so, before it weakens and
becomes vertically shallow. Once that occurs Andres should turn
westward within the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast
has been adjusted south and west of the previous track during the
first 12-24 hours, due to the more westward initial position.
Thereafter, it is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and is in
best agreement with the GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 14.3N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 14.8N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 15.4N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.8N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 15.9N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 100236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021

...ANDRES FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 109.0W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 109.0 West. Andres is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn
toward the west by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin tonight and Monday, with
the system becoming a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 100235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.4N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.8N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.7N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.6N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.8N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.9N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.9N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 108.6W.
09MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1224
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 092035
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021

The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at
this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of
banding features. However the cyclone is producing some very cold
cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation. A partial
scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it
is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection
to the east of the center. The current intensity estimate remains
at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with
increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to
lower-troposphere. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin
tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model
guidance.

The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat
elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the
previously estimated track. Andres should move along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or
so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level
steering flow. The official track forecast is south of much of the
model guidance on account of the more southward center location.
This is not far from the latest GFS model solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 092034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021

...ANDRES SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 108.5W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Andres is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn
toward the west by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming
a remnant low on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 092034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 108.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.05.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 108.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.05.2021 0 13.9N 108.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 10.05.2021 12 14.5N 108.5W 1006 22
1200UTC 10.05.2021 24 15.5N 108.8W 1006 23
0000UTC 11.05.2021 36 16.0N 109.0W 1005 22
1200UTC 11.05.2021 48 16.5N 109.2W 1006 21
0000UTC 12.05.2021 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091619

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.05.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 108.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP012021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.05.2021 13.9N 108.0W WEAK
00UTC 10.05.2021 14.5N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.05.2021 15.5N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.05.2021 16.0N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.05.2021 16.5N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.05.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091619

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 107.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 107.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.9N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.2N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.4N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.3N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 108.0W.
09MAY21. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ANDRES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1237
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND
101600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 091454
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021

Although the system lacks well-defined convective banding features,
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 35 kt.
This is consistent with a data T-number based on a shear pattern
with the low-level center displaced within 3/4 degrees to the west
of the edge of the main area of deep convection, as suggested by
recent microwave imagery. Since earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the system was close to tropical storm strength,
and given the latest Dvorak analyses, the cyclone is being named.
Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern
North Pacific basin, just beating out Adrian of 2017.
Increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and drier air to the
west of the cyclone should prevent any significant additional
strengthening. The official forecast generally follows the
numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant
low in 48 hours, as in the previous advisory.

The initial motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/5. Andres
should move along the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level
ridge for the next couple of days and turn westward in the
low-level flow as an increasingly shallow circulation. The
official track forecast is on the southern side of the model
guidance suite. This also close to the latest latest corrected
consensus, or HCCA, track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.1N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 091451
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2021 EAST PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 107.9W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 107.9 West. Andres is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. The cyclone is
forecast to turn westward by late Tuesday, and continue that general
motion on Wednesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is forecast today and tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming a remnant low
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 091448
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
1500 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 107.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 090857
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021

Satellite images and scatterometer surface wind data indicate that
the low pressure area southwest of Mexico that the NHC has been
monitoring for the past few days has acquired sufficient organized
deep convection and has developed a well-defined inner-core wind
field for the system to be designated as the first tropical
depression of the 2021 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season...
albeit six days early. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on
30-kt surface winds noted in 0359 UTC and 0453 UTC ASCAT-B and
ASCAT-C, respectively, scatterometer satellite data. There were some
35-kt wind vectors present east of the center, but those appeared to
be rain-contaminated at that time. The 30-kt initial intensity is
also supported by a 0600 UTC TAFB satellite intensity estimate of
T2.0/30 kt using a curved-band feature.

The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. For the next day or two,
the tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to
north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak
subtropical ridge that extends westward from the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico across central Mexico to just north of the system. The
ridge is expected to build steadily westward over the next few
days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward on Tuesday and then
moving west-southwestward on Wednesday and Thursday. The HHC track
forecast follows the overall trend of the consensus models TVCE
and HCCA, but lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope
in anticipation of the system weakening and becoming a shallow
cyclone by early Tuesday, after which it should be steered more by
the low-level easterly to northeasterly trade-wind flow

Recent satellite trends suggest that the depression currently is not
far from tropical storm status, and SHIPS intensity data indicate
that the deep-layer shear is favorable for some additional
strengthening. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS reveal that
moderate southwesterly to westerly mid-level shear is currently
displacing the convection to the northeast and east of the
low-level center, and this unfavorable pattern is expected to hinder
overall development. As a result, the cyclone is only forecast to
become a low-end tropical storm before significant deep-layer shear
begins to adversely affect the system by late Monday. During the
period Tuesday through Thursday, very hostile wind shear in
conjunction with sea-surface temperatures cooling to near 26-deg C
beneath the cyclone should result in the system degenerating into a
remnant low, with dissipation expected by early Friday, if not
sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly
higher than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA for the next 24
hours, and then closely follows those models thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 090833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021
300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021

...FIRST 2021 EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 107.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression One-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude
107.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward on Tuesday, and
move west-southwestward on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system could become a tropical storm later today. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming
a remnant on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 090832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021
0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 107.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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