Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ENRIQUE-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 302036
TCDEP5

Remnants Of Enrique Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Enrique has been devoid of deep, organized convection for over 12
hours today. In addition, visible satellite imagery and earlier
passive microwave data suggested that the original center has been
absorbed by a broad trough of low pressure centered farther
southeast near the coast of Baja California Sur. Therefore, this
will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of Enrique. The
remnant trough is expected to move west-northwestward over Baja
California Sur tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western
coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.5N 110.3W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 302034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Enrique Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...ENRIQUE HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 110.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Enrique were located near
latitude 24.5 North, longitude 110.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Enrique will affect
portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja
California Sur tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 302034
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 110.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 022
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 24.4N 109.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 109.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.0N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.4N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 110.1W.
30JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
629 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 301439
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the
satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning.
Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the
estimated center position, and the only active convection at this
time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight
satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the
northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest
Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system
a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique
to a tropical depression.

Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected
to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak
ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system
well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus.
Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the
surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction,
should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As
expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not
indicate much potential for additional convective development before
the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to
become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and
dissipate shortly thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern
portions of Baja California Sur. This will pose a threat of flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western
coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301438
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Enrique Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...ENRIQUE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 110.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Enrique
was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the
forecast track, the center of Enrique will move over Baja California
Sur tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
day or so, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern
portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may trigger flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 301437
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.0W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 109.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 23.6N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.2N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.5N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 109.1W.
30JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADJUSTED MANOP HOUR.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 23.6N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.2N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.5N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 109.1W.
30JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300835
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south
of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit
over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained
as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above
the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique
should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with
the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The
official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective
guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique
should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in
36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct.

Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my
best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt.
This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar
provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to
the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a
northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The
official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected
consensus solution.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across
portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of
flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 109.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 109.6 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track,
Enrique will move over the southern Baja California Peninsula
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Enrique is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression later
today and dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Enrique are expected to produce total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches
across Sinaloa, western Durango, and southern Chihuahua in
western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches
across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. These rainfall
totals may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300832
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 109.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 109.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4S 46.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2021 0 33.4S 46.6W 994 49
1200UTC 30.06.2021 12 31.0S 43.4W 1002 40
0000UTC 01.07.2021 24 28.8S 41.0W 1012 33
1200UTC 01.07.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 35.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2021 0 8.8N 35.8W 1014 22
1200UTC 30.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.4N 54.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2021 0 10.4N 54.5W 1014 25
1200UTC 30.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.06.2021 0 23.4N 108.8W 1004 29
1200UTC 30.06.2021 12 24.2N 109.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.07.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.7N 66.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2021 84 15.5N 69.2W 1010 39
0000UTC 04.07.2021 96 16.6N 73.9W 1009 34
1200UTC 04.07.2021 108 17.7N 76.4W 1008 40
0000UTC 05.07.2021 120 19.3N 79.3W 1006 38
1200UTC 05.07.2021 132 21.0N 81.6W 1005 43
0000UTC 06.07.2021 144 23.0N 83.9W 1005 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300400

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4S 46.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2021 33.4S 46.6W MODERATE
12UTC 30.06.2021 31.0S 43.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.07.2021 28.8S 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 35.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2021 8.8N 35.8W WEAK
12UTC 30.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.4N 54.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2021 10.4N 54.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.06.2021 23.4N 108.8W WEAK
12UTC 30.06.2021 24.2N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.7N 66.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.07.2021 15.5N 69.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2021 16.6N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2021 17.7N 76.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2021 19.3N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2021 21.0N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2021 23.0N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300400

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 23.6N 108.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 108.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.2N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.5N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 109.1W.
30JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 010400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300248
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized
convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst,
beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly
well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to
-70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation
center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The
initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the
earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection,
though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective
satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB.

The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have
sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general
heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm
continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter,
the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could
bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24
hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the
previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift
after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's
center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the
cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small
circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja
California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression
in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after
moving over land.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the
next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will
continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...TINY ENRIQUE HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WHILE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 109.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 109.1 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a slight
turn to the left.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Enrique is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
tomorrow and dissipate on Thursday near the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinaola,
western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions
of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300239
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0300 UTC WED JUN 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 109.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 109.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 22.9N 108.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 108.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.9N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.6N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.0N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 108.4W.
29JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292047
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near
its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable
environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and
low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the
system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why
Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of
convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm
sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of
California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone
for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by
several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle.

The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general
motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves
into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California
Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance
envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective
organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and
it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja
California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over
land.

Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of
the Baja California Peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during
the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico
will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292045
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...ENRIQUE STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 108.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over
portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula late tonight and
Wednesday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is
expected during the next couple of days, and Enrique is forecast to
dissipate on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center, mainly in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinola,
western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions
of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 292044
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 108.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 108.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 108.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291748
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...POORLY-ORGANIZED ENRIQUE BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or
over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Enrique is
forecast to dissipate by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center, mainly in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over
southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning
tonight.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across Sinola,
western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
are possible across the southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Combined with the rain that had already fallen, these additional
amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 88.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 31.0N 88.7W 1020 16
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8S 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER :

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 34.8S 50.0W 990 51
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 33.5S 46.5W 994 47
1200UTC 30.06.2021 24 31.0S 43.6W 1002 40
0000UTC 01.07.2021 36 28.8S 40.8W 1012 34
1200UTC 01.07.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 49.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 12.1N 49.8W 1015 24
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 34.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 8.8N 34.1W 1013 20
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 8.7N 36.0W 1012 27
1200UTC 30.06.2021 24 10.0N 39.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 01.07.2021 36 10.5N 43.6W 1013 28
1200UTC 01.07.2021 48 10.9N 49.0W 1012 33
0000UTC 02.07.2021 60 11.3N 53.7W 1011 35
1200UTC 02.07.2021 72 12.5N 58.6W 1011 39
0000UTC 03.07.2021 84 13.8N 64.2W 1009 39
1200UTC 03.07.2021 96 15.5N 69.6W 1008 42
0000UTC 04.07.2021 108 16.4N 74.6W 1008 36
1200UTC 04.07.2021 120 17.4N 77.8W 1007 38
0000UTC 05.07.2021 132 19.2N 80.9W 1004 40
1200UTC 05.07.2021 144 21.1N 83.5W 1001 47

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.06.2021 0 22.2N 107.8W 999 39
0000UTC 30.06.2021 12 23.3N 108.5W 1003 34
1200UTC 30.06.2021 24 24.6N 109.9W 1004 34
0000UTC 01.07.2021 36 23.2N 109.6W 1008 25
1200UTC 01.07.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 43.9N 8.9E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2021 36 43.9N 8.9E 1010 34
1200UTC 01.07.2021 48 44.1N 7.5E 1011 27
0000UTC 02.07.2021 60 43.8N 9.0E 1011 31
1200UTC 02.07.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291600

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 88.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2021 31.0N 88.7W WEAK
00UTC 30.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8S 50.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER :

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2021 34.8S 50.0W MODERATE
00UTC 30.06.2021 33.5S 46.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.06.2021 31.0S 43.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.07.2021 28.8S 40.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 49.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2021 12.1N 49.8W WEAK
00UTC 30.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 34.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2021 8.8N 34.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.06.2021 8.7N 36.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2021 10.0N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2021 10.5N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2021 10.9N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2021 11.3N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2021 12.5N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2021 13.8N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2021 15.5N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2021 16.4N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2021 17.4N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2021 19.2N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2021 21.1N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 107.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.06.2021 22.2N 107.8W MODERATE
00UTC 30.06.2021 23.3N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2021 24.6N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2021 23.2N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 43.9N 8.9E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.07.2021 43.9N 8.9E WEAK
12UTC 01.07.2021 44.1N 7.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2021 43.8N 9.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291600

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 107.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 107.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.3N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.2N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.1N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.8N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 107.8W.
29JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 291455
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this
morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air
into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity.
Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern
semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its
lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with
this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate
and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.

Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that
the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of
previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain
335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the
northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula
tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted
slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for
the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model
consensus.

Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat
content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity
models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression
by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized
convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple of days. The additional rainfall over the
mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding
and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291453
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...ENRIQUE CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 107.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 107.6 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the northwest is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move
near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula
tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center, mainly in the eastern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area over
southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula beginning
tonight.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across Sinola,
western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
are possible across the southern portions of Baja California Sur.
Combined with the rain that had already fallen, these additional
amounts may trigger new flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 291451
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 107.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 107.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291144
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
600 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...POORLY-ORGANIZED ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or
over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. Combined with the rain that
has already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
through Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will
spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the
Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 107.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 107.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.5N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.5N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.2N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 107.8W.
29JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290846
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due
to the entrainment of drier and more stable air. Upwelling of
cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a
contributing factor. Based on data from a couple of earlier
scatterometer overpasses, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt.
Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for
the current intensity of the storm. Since the thermodynamic
environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening
is forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the model consensus. It should be noted
that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant
deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon.
Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly
uncertain.

The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes
have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion
estimates quite uncertain. Based heavily on continuity, the
initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5
kt. The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern
Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next
couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja
California Peninsula.

Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical
storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it
is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area,
and not upgrade it to a warning at this time.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple days. The additional rainfall over the
mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding
and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight,
and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward
along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290846
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...ENRIQUE LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 107.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.6 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near
or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight
or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. Combined with the rain that
has already fallen, these additional amounts may trigger new flash
flooding and mudslides.

As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
through Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will
spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the
Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290845
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290539
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1200 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

...ENRIQUE WEAKENING IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 107.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 107.4 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion is expected continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near
or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight
or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
through Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will
spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the
Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.7N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.6N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.6N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 107.5W.
29JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290239
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Deep convection associated with Enrique has continued to wane this
evening, with the cloud tops warming and the center located just to
the northwest of the remaining convective activity. The subjective
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease along with
the UW/CIMSS objective T-numbers. A blend of these and an earlier
SATCON estimate yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt for this
advisory. Although the center of Enrique is located over SSTs of
around 28C, the storm has been entraining a drier and more stable
air mass located just to its west, which has led to the loss of
organization. Bursts of deep convection will likely continue
during the next day or so while the storm moves northwestward near
a sharp SST gradient. However, steady weakening is anticipated
during Enrique's approach to the southern portion of the Baja
peninsula. Land interaction and decreasing SSTs should cause the
system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days, and
dissipate within 72 hours.

Enrique is moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is unchanged from before. A low- to mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the storm should steer Enrique northwestward over
the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted back to
the east this cycle and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction, but it lies a little to the west of the latest
multi-model consensus aids. The guidance has again trended faster
and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula
during the next couple days. The rainfall over the mainland of
Mexico continue to pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning
Tuesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that
area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward
along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 21.1N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 107.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over
portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula Tuesday night
or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
over of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

As Enrique approaches the Baja Peninsula, total rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
through Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells will
spread northwestward along portions of the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula and the coast of the southern part of the
Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290238
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 107.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 282358
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
600 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 107.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
for the coast of southwest Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 107.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected continue for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Enrique will continue to move away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Enrique is then expected to
move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
few days, but Enrique could still be a tropical storm as it
approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
over the southeast portion of the Baja California Peninsula by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 015
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 107.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 107.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.4N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.1N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.8N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.7N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.3N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.7N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 107.3W.
28JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 282055
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

This afternoon Enrique's satellite structure has rapidly
deteriorated, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to the
north of a shrinking region of deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB
came in with T4.0/65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates this afternoon,
however the data T-numbers, which are less constrained than the
Current Intensity numbers, were lower. The latest objective UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates has also been rapidly dropping with the current value
at T3.0/45 kt. Since the satellite structure has continued to
degrade, Enrique has been downgraded to a tropical storm with a 60
kt intensity.

Enrique has continued to turn leftward through the course of the
day, with the estimated motion now at 315/5 kt. Over the next few
days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to maintain the
storm on a slow northwest heading. However, there has been a subtle
left and fast shift in the guidance this afternoon. The latest NHC
track forecast has shifted a bit west and is a bit faster in
accordance with the consensus aids, but is not as far west or quick
as the latest TVCE consensus.

Dry-air entrainment has done a number to the inner core of Enrique
today. As the storm continues to move northwestward towards lower
oceanic heat content and a drier and more stable environment,
weakening is expected to continue. However, the storm is still
forecasted to be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip
of Baja California where tropical storm watches remain in effect. By
72 h the low-level circulation could be further disrupted by the
terrain of Baja California and the latest NHC forecast expects
Enrique to degenerate into a remnant low by that time.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is moving away from southwestern coast of
Mexico this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds could still
occur over portions of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas
through tonight.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 282050
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...ENRIQUE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT PULLS NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected continue for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Enrique will continue to move away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight. Enrique is then expected to
move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
few days, but Enrique could still be a tropical storm as it
approaches the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning for the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
along the southwestern coast of Mexico through early evening and in
the watch area over the southeast portion of the Baja California
Peninsula by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco in western Mexico. These amounts may produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 282047
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NO CHANGES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.3W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.3W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 107.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281746
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...ENRIQUE WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICAN COAST...
...HURRICANE WARNING DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 107.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings
south of Playa Perula. In addition, the Hurricane Warning that was
in effect from Cabo Corrientes to Playa Perula has been changed to
a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 107.1 West. Enrique is
now moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track,
the core of Enrique will continue to move away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico this afternoon. Enrique is then expected to move
near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecasted over the next several
days. Enrique is expected to weaken below hurricane intensity by
tomorrow, but is still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves
near the southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today along
the southwestern coast of Mexico and for the southeastern portion of
the Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts may
produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281532 CCA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO LOS BARRILES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 106.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 106.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.9N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.4N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.2N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.0N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.8N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.5N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.3N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 106.8W.
28JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 937 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281450
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as
the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air
entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher
terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the
northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's
inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77
kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was
lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates.

Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the
left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level
ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading.
The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though
there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models.
The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the
previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly
ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as
the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening
rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be
a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula.
However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because
Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature
gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in
faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow
Enrique to maintain its intensity longer.

Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along
southern part of the Baja California Peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days,
which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is
in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds
are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico
within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281447
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 106.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
the southern Baja California Peninsula from Cabo San Lucas
northward to Los Barriles.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico
* Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 106.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is expected this afternoon with that motion expected to
continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of
the hurricane, along with the strongest winds, will begin to move
away from the southwestern coast of Mexico this afternoon. Enrique
is then expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja
California Peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecasted over the next several days. Enrique
is expected to weaken below hurricane intensity by tomorrow, but is
still expected to be a tropical storm when it moves near the
southern Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area this morning and tropical storm conditions
will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area
through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area today along the southwestern coast of
Mexico and for the southeastern portion of the Baja California
Peninsula by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts may
produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281444
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS
NORTHWARD TO LOS BARRILES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 360SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281141
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
600 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...ENRIQUE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE WARNING AREAS
THROUGH TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 106.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 106.6 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, and that general
motion should continue thereafter for the next couple of days. On
the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along with the
strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Enrique
is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken
through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will
continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through
today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area today.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts
would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 19.8N 106.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 106.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.6N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.2N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.9N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.7N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.6N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.5N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.5N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 106.4W.
28JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280835
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the
past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary
satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still
characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity
for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend
is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a
little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to
commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content,
and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity
forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model
guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction.

Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning
to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now
north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to
develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone
to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This
general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the
steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is
expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The
official track forecast is close to the latest corrected
consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble.

On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A
Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that
area later today.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect
for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico
within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...ENRIQUE STILL CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WARNING AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 106.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 106.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, and that general
motion should continue thereafter for the next couple of days. On
the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along with the
strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Enrique
is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken
through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will
continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through
today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area today.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco and Nayarit in western Mexico. These amounts
would likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280834
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 165SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 106.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280539
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1200 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

...CORE OF THE HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE WARNING AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 106.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 106.1 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected later today, and
that general motion should continue thereafter for the next couple
of days. On the forecast track the core of the hurricane, along
with the strongest winds, are expected to continue to pass near the
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning. Enrique
is forecast to begin weakening later today, and continue to weaken
through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area early today. Tropical storm conditions will
continue within portions of the tropical storm warning through
today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area early today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area today.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 74.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.06.2021 0 30.2N 74.5W 1015 25
1200UTC 28.06.2021 12 31.2N 78.0W 1017 24
0000UTC 29.06.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.7N 35.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.06.2021 0 9.7N 35.9W 1013 22
1200UTC 28.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.06.2021 0 19.7N 106.2W 974 63
1200UTC 28.06.2021 12 20.4N 107.6W 994 40
0000UTC 29.06.2021 24 20.7N 107.9W 999 33
1200UTC 29.06.2021 36 21.5N 108.0W 1001 33
0000UTC 30.06.2021 48 22.4N 108.9W 1004 29
1200UTC 30.06.2021 60 23.0N 109.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 01.07.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 105.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 105.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.3N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.9N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.6N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.4N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.3N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.4N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 106.0W.
28JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1002 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280251
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this
evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A
couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall
structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The
microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the
southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been
apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both
TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates
slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is
maintained for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive
for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure
suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change
in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time,
decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of
cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to
lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the
forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more
stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential
interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to
result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and
the HCCA and ICON consensus aids.

Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it
appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be
beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed
from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the
northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to
turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should
continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat
better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and
the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On
the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests
in that area should monitor the progress of this system.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a
portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the
warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280250
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE CORE OF ENRIQUE PASSES
JUST OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected tonight and Monday.,
and that general motion should continue thereafter for the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane,
along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near the
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Enrique is
then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken
through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm
warning through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280250
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 360SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272349
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...CORE OF ENRIQUE LURKING JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 105.8 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight.
That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On
the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the
strongest winds, are expected to pass near the southwestern coast
of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Enrique is
then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken
through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
reported at Manzanillo, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning
area and will continue to spread northwestward through tonight.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 105.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 105.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.5N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.1N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.8N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.6N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.6N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.5N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 105.8W.
27JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1043 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272101 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 11...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Corrected headline

...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa
Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight.
That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On
the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the
strongest winds, are expected to pass near or just offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue
to weaken through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will
continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through
tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272057
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery
since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature
has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and
structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest
Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity
remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses
helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed
that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area
of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest
core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore.

Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today.
However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward
component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07
kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently
moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone
tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This
northwestward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track
and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique
are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through
tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest
winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the
system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for
strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the
official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur
through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin
moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the
fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling
should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a
gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the
cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into
a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the
pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a
remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether
or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the
southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a
Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally
become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the
corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a
Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern
Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272053
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO..


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Playa
Perula to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin tonight.
That general motion should continue thereafter for a few days. On
the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, along with the
strongest winds, are expected to pass near or just offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight.
Enrique is then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue
to weaken through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will
continue to spread northwestward within the warning area through
tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272053
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA
PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.7W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.7W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 105.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271741
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...CORE OF ENRIQUE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 105.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 105.7 West. Enrique has
moved a little east of north over the past few hours near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is
expected to begin by tonight. That general motion should continue
thereafter for a few days. On the forecast track, the core of the
hurricane, along with the strongest winds, should remain just
offshore of southwestern Mexico through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight.
Enrique is then expected to begin weakening on Monday and continue
to weaken through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by
tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 32.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2021 0 10.9N 32.5W 1011 21
0000UTC 28.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2021 0 18.0N 105.9W 976 64
0000UTC 28.06.2021 12 19.4N 106.5W 980 56
1200UTC 28.06.2021 24 20.0N 107.3W 992 42
0000UTC 29.06.2021 36 20.8N 108.0W 995 41
1200UTC 29.06.2021 48 21.2N 109.0W 999 32
0000UTC 30.06.2021 60 21.5N 109.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 30.06.2021 72 22.0N 110.3W 1005 28
0000UTC 01.07.2021 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 32.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2021 10.9N 32.5W WEAK
00UTC 28.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.06.2021 18.0N 105.9W STRONG
00UTC 28.06.2021 19.4N 106.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2021 20.0N 107.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.06.2021 20.8N 108.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.06.2021 21.2N 109.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.06.2021 21.5N 109.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.06.2021 22.0N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271559

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.1N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.6N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.1N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.8N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.6N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 106.0W.
27JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1074 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271447
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with
some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting
that an eye is attempting to form. The northern portion of the core
appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to
down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of
Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact,
and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB
indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this
advisory.

Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the
past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase
to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track
reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is
forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or
so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late
Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward
as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow.
The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is
close to the TVCE consensus.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for
strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast
to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due
to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters,
upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would
induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By
Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler
waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which
will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows
Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the
southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short
time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to
a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is
very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance
through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the
intensity consensus after 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the
wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271444
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 105.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected to begin later
today. That general motion should continue thereafter for a few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight.
Enrique is then expected to begin weakening on Monday and continue
to weaken through early this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by
tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271443
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271141
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
600 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...ENRIQUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 105.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north near 4 mph (6 km/h). A north-northwest to
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to pass near
or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico late today
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is possible today.
Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken over cooler waters
on Monday and Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by
tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.4N 106.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.1N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.7N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.3N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.1N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 23.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.7N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 106.0W.
27JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270841
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much
over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on
geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined
convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a
blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more
strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official
forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and
decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to
commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be
entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja
California peninsula, which should also contribute to the
weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU
Superensemble predictions.

Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion
estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents
are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The
system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to
northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days.
Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should
gradually bend to the left under the influence of the
lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too
different from the previous NHC track.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple
of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the
wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270837
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...ENRIQUE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A north-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is
expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico late today through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is
possible today, but Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken
within the next couple of days as it moves over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by
tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, The eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270835
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0900 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270550
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...CORE OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 106.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 106.0 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the
north-northwest is expected later this morning, with the storm
maintaining a northwest to north-northwest heading during next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is
expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico late today through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but Enrique is
expected to begin to gradually weaken within the next couple of
days as it moves over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible by
tonight in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area today and Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.0N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.1N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.0N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.8N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.3N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.9N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.3N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.3N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 106.0W.
27JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270249
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding
has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center
of Enrique this evening. A couple of microwave overpasses since the
previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye
feature. These observations suggest that some of the dry air
noted earlier has mixed out. Although objective satellite intensity
estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB
and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at
75 kt.

Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously
forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight
intensification in the short term. After that time, moderate
easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along
the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening
with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to
three days. A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the
forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a
drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula.
This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day
5.

Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is
located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a
slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position. Although the
latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC
advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt. The ridge
to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening
over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the
southwest United States. As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn
north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36
hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the
northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward
the northwest. The latest official forecast is fairly similar to
the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and
HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern
Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the
hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the
coast. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane
Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has
also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple
of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or
expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore
a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a
Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270248
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS THE CORE OF ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST OFFSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion
of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo
Corrientes.

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
northward to Punta Mita.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the
north-northwest is expected later tonight with the storm
maintaining a northwest to north-northwest heading during next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is
expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico late Sunday through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early
Sunday, but Enrique is expected to begin to gradually weaken early
next week as it moves over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the
warning area and will continue to spread northwestward within the
warning area through Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible by Sunday night in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Sunday and
Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270247
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0300 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA MITA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262350
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ENRIQUE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Recent satellite data indicate that the center of Enrique is
located slightly south of earlier estimates. At 700 PM CDT (0000
UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude
17.1 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the
west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northwest is
expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a northwest
heading for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core
of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible in the short term, but
Enrique is expected to begin weakening early next week as it begins
moving over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portions
of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward
within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 105.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 105.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.9N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.0N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.9N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.4N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.1N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.8N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.9N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.6N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
262200Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 105.7W.
26JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270400Z, 271000Z, 271600Z AND 272200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262058
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The
hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of
an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry
air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner
core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also
be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the
cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite
estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The
latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70
kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity
of 75 kt for this advisory.

Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated
motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As
discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the
northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm
weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four
Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is
more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are
some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and
HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE
consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for
the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting
a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that
direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the
forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast
with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any
additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane
watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or
tomorrow.

Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent
disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its
eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance
indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little
earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative
factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased
from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little
additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward
motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional
dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to
lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter
portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below
26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating
into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the
forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262053
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 105.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later tonight or tomorrow.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 105.9 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is expected later tonight with the storm maintaining a
northwest heading for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel
to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible in the
short term, but Enrique is expected to begin weakening early
next week as it begins moving over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 262050
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
2100 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.9W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261749
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 105.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 105.6 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest with a gradual slowdown in forward motion is expected over
the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique
is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional intensification is expected today, and Enrique is
forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 105.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 105.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.5N 105.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.3N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.4N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.1N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.6N 107.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.3N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.1N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.9N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 105.3W.
26JUN21. HURRICANE 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1144 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261523 CCA
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Corrected initial storm motion in second paragraph

Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite
imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of
overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that
an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears
to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank.
Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak
estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an
objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the
higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite
structure since 1200 UTC.

Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to
bend a bit rightward at 300/06 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should
slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of
monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may
also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short
term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right,
especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance
consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The
small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep
the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track
adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the
short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected
to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt.
Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry
down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's
core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along
Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further
slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling.
Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this
steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast
period as sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast
track.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261500
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite
imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of
overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that
an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave
pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears
to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank.
Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak
estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an
objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial
intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the
higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite
structure since 1200 UTC.

Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to
bend a bit rightward at 300/07 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should
slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of
monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may
also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short
term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right,
especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance
consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The
small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep
the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track
adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the
short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected
to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt.
Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry
down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's
core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along
Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further
slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling.
Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this
steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast
period and sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast
track.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261500
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest with a gradual slowdown in forward motion is expected over
the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique
is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected today, and
Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261454
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northwest with a gradual slowdown in forward motion is expected over
the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique
is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected today, and
Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 261452
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261143
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
700 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 105.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 105.0 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm
is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest
tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading
through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is
expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern
portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread
westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 104.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 104.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.9N 105.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.5N 107.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.2N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.7N 108.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 104.8W.
26JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1188
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260855
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better
organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central
dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops
colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite
intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt
from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS
ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on
the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify,
cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear
is occurring.

The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the
storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should
cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h.
After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The
track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last
advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show
a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the
coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to
the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various
consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track
to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of
the southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical
wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next
24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening
is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the
SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity
guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady
weakening.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260849
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 104.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is
forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest
tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading
through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is
expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the
eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260849
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 104.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260535
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...ENRIQUE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is
forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest
Saturday night or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly
heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique
is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (115 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the
eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 103.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 103.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.7N 105.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.1N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.8N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.9N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.8N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.5N 108.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.5N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 104.3W.
26JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1225
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260238
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this
afternoon. There has been a notable increase in banding, and the
Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric. In addition, a
SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an
improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection
wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The
latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55
kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively. Given the improvement in
structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC
intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory.

The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of
low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures
during the next 24 to 36 hours. Those favorable conditions along
with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result
in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so. In
fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening,
and the latest NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength
in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower
HCCA and ICON consensus aids. After 36-48 h, increasing shear,
and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady
weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken
over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and
bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours. After that time, the
ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to
turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall
change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC
forecast is not very different from before. It should be noted
that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over
the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the
southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance,
however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during
the early portion of the forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 104.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 104.1 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is
forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest
Saturday night or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly
heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of
Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane later tonight or on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the
eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260237
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 104.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252345
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 103.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.8 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is
forecast to gradually slow down with a turn toward the northwest
expected to occur by Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of
Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Enrique is likely to become a hurricane later tonight or on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the
eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 103.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 103.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.3N 104.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.7N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.2N 105.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.0N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.9N 106.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.8N 107.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.0N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.9N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 103.5W.
25JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1271
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252056
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite
imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent
banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon,
a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed
over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense
overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to
assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer
wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt
winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval
of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt,
while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique
(ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at
T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat
lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45
kt.

Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of
the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The
track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with
a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead
to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in
its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to
the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the
cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while
becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has
shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance
consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models.

Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to
intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a
favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level
humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest
SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt
wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its
climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just
below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours.
After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler
upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to
begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a
little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance
of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo
Corrientes.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252049
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 103.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, a
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Cabo Corrientes
northward to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
*Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Cabo Corrientes to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.3 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is
forecast to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest
expected to occur by Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of
Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and Enrique is likely to become a
hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in
eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to
spread westward within the warning area tonight and through
the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally
heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico, which could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252048
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO
CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251736
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE INTENSIFIES A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.8W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.8 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is
expected to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest
forecast to occur by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Enrique could become a
hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally
heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of
the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.06.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 22.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.06.2021 0 10.1N 22.4W 1012 18
0000UTC 26.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.06.2021 0 15.6N 102.7W 1005 32
0000UTC 26.06.2021 12 16.2N 104.6W 1001 37
1200UTC 26.06.2021 24 16.4N 106.5W 997 38
0000UTC 27.06.2021 36 16.6N 107.4W 993 35
1200UTC 27.06.2021 48 17.2N 108.0W 990 39
0000UTC 28.06.2021 60 18.5N 108.1W 988 43
1200UTC 28.06.2021 72 19.4N 108.5W 986 49
0000UTC 29.06.2021 84 20.6N 109.2W 988 41
1200UTC 29.06.2021 96 21.3N 110.0W 992 37
0000UTC 30.06.2021 108 21.9N 110.6W 996 36
1200UTC 30.06.2021 120 23.1N 110.9W 1002 33
0000UTC 01.07.2021 132 27.0N 113.2W 1006 26
1200UTC 01.07.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251559

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 102.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 102.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.9N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.4N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.9N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.6N 106.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.5N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.2N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.9N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 102.6W.
25JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1316
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251457
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning
with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south
and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed
by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner
core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of
subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB
and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate
was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards
the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this
advisory.

The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at
290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge
anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and
weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs
southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow
down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn
to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the
forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the
west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the
low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC
track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but
some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side
of the guidance envelope.

The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast
to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the
cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains
embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at
least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become
a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48
hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase
somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to
some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus,
weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the
forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along
Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during
the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP
corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of
weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment
becomes increasingly unfavorable.

While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on
the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo
Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause
locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251448
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...ENRIQUE INTENSIFYING...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.5 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm
is expected to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest
forecast to occur by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and Enrique could become a hurricane
on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally
heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of
the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251447
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241421ZJUN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 101.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 101.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.3N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.9N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.3N 105.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.9N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.6N 106.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2N 107.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.0N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 101.8W.
25JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 05E (ENRIQUE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1375
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN1 PHNC 241430).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250843
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Scatterometer data near 04Z indicated that the wind circulation
of the low pressure area located south of southwestern Mexico had
become better defined, although the west quadrant was a bit weak to
to a trough extending from the low to a second low near 14N 109W.
Since that time, the associated convective banding has become better
organized, indicating that development has continued. All three
ASCATs showed 35 kt winds to the southeast of the center, so
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Enrique.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/8. Enrique is
currently to the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The
global models forecast the ridge to weaken as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the southwestern United States during the next
few days. The track guidance generally responds to this by
forecasting Enrique to slow its forward motion and turn more
northwestward. After 96 h, the ridge strengthens slightly, which
should cause the tropical cyclone to again move west-northwestward.
The track guidance has some spread, with the GFS, Canadian, and
HMON models on the right side of the guidance envelope closer to
the coast of Mexico, and the UKMET model farther out to sea on the
left side. The official forecast track lies near and is a little
slower than the various consensus models.

The cyclone is currently in an area of moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear, and light to moderate shear conditions are
expected during the next 60 h or so while Enrique is over warm
water in a moist environment. Thus, Enrique is expected to
strengthen and this part of the official forecast, which is in the
weaker portion of the intensity guidance, could be conservative.
After about 60 h, increased shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause Enrique to
weaken, and this part of the official forecast is near the
intensity consensus.

While the center of Enrique is forecast to stay offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, tropical-storm force winds might
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
few days. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
that area later today. In addition, outer rainbands are expected
to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.0N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

...TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORMS OFF OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.7W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the
southwestern cost of Mexico later today. Interests in this area
should monitor the progress of Enrique.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 101.7 West. Enrique is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Enrique will move parallel to, and offshore of, the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Enrique is expected to become a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally
heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250842
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021
0900 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>