Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FELICIA-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 220402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 145.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2021 0 14.2N 145.8W 1010 25
1200UTC 22.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220401

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 145.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2021 14.2N 145.8W WEAK
12UTC 22.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220401

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 210400 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 028A AMENDED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 140.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 140.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.5N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.9N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.3N 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.0N 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 141.1W.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
896 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z
IS 8 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: UPDATED TO REFLECT FINAL WARNING FOR TD
06E.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 127.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2021 0 18.5N 127.3W 1007 26
1200UTC 21.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 140.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.07.2021 0 15.1N 140.3W 1008 27
1200UTC 21.07.2021 12 14.5N 143.0W 1009 27
0000UTC 22.07.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 9.5N 88.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.07.2021 144 9.5N 88.8W 1007 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210401

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 210401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 127.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.07.2021 18.5N 127.3W WEAK
12UTC 21.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 140.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.07.2021 15.1N 140.3W WEAK
12UTC 21.07.2021 14.5N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 9.5N 88.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.07.2021 9.5N 88.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210401

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 140.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 140.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.5N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.9N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.3N 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.0N 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 141.1W.
21JUL21. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
896 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 210234
TCDCP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Felicia Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062021
500 PM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

A small area of deep convection that flared up early this morning
has dissipated. Since then, what's left of Felicia is just a low
cloud swirl moving within the trade wind flow, with thin high clouds
moving over it from the west. The initial motion is 255/14 kt.
Felicia is moving in a hostile environment, with dry, stable
conditions, vertical wind shear greater than 20 kt, and sea
surface temperatures around 25 to 26C. While there may be isolated
flare-ups of deep convection over the next couple of days,
reintensification under these conditions is not likely. Thus,
Felicia has been declared a post-tropical remnant low. The remnant
circulation of Felicia should continue to spin down and the global
models open up the circulation into a trough by the end of the week.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Felicia. Additional information on this system can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 21/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/0000Z 13.9N 145.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/1200Z 13.3N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/0000Z 13.0N 151.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 210231
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Felicia Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062021
500 PM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

...FELICIA ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 140.9W
ABOUT 995 MI...1595 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Felicia was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 140.9 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near
16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to weaken slightly tonight then remain
steady through Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Felicia. Additional information on the
post-tropical low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 210230
TCMCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062021
0300 UTC WED JUL 21 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 140.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 140.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 140.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 145.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.3N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N 151.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 140.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON FELICIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 138.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 138.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.3N 144.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.7N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 13.2N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 139.7W.
20JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
971 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 202047
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Felicia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

Convection once again has mostly dissipated near the low-level
circulation of Felicia. Without any organized deep convection, the
clock is now ticking on its remaining lifespan as a tropical
cyclone. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that was recently received at
1709 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 32-kt just north of the
center. Given the lack of convection since that time, as well as the
latest Dvorak estimates decreasing further, Felicia is being
downgraded to a tropical depression at this time with maximum
sustained winds of 30 kt. Further weakening is anticipated as
Felicia remains in a very dry, stable environment. The depression
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in the next 12 hours
and open up into a trough by the end of the week, well south of
Hawaii.

The latest estimated motion is now to the west-southwest at 255/14
kt. The track philosophy has changed little this advisory as a large
subtropical ridge will continue to steer Felicia to the
west-southwest over the last few days of its life. The latest NHC
track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast track
as the guidance remains tightly clustered along the forecast track.
On this track, Felicia will be crossing into the central Pacific
basin within the next few hours.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Felicia. Future information on this system can be found in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 0300 UTC...under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO header
WTPA21 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.3N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 202044
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Felicia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 139.4W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Felicia
was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 139.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast and Felicia is
expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on Felicia can be found
in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO
header WTPA31 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 202043
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 139.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 137.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 137.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.3N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.7N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.1N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.6N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 138.3W.
20JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1042
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 201449
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

After being devoid of deep convection for 9-12 hours overnight,
Felicia managed to redevelop a small area of convection near and
north of its estimated low-level center. However, this convective
activity is poorly-organized and already appears to be waning.
Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 1200 UTC were T2.5/35 kt
from SAB and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, while the latest objective ADT
estimate was T1.5/25 kt. Given the earlier scatterometer data and
that convection had increased somewhat since that time, the initial
intensity is only being lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt for
this advisory.

The latest estimated motion continues to be south of due west but a
little faster, at 260/14 kt. Felicia is primarily being steered by a
large subtropical ridge to its north, which should maintain the
cyclone on a west-southwest heading over the remainder of its
lifespan. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the
previous one, but is a touch faster, in agreement with the most
recent GFS and ECMWF forecasts. On the latest forecast track,
Felicia is expected to move into the central Pacific basin later
today, just after 2100 UTC.

Despite the recent small convective burst, Felicia's large-scale
environment remains dominated by moderate to strong northwesterly
vertical wind shear within a dry and stable airmass over 25-26 C
sea-surface temperatures. Consequently, a good chunk of the
deterministic model guidance (e.g., GFS/ECWMF/HWRF) depict Felicia
struggling to produce much, if any, additional organized convection
near its center. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Felicia
weakening into a tropical depression later today and then
degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, in close agreement with
the multi-model consensus. The remnant low is then forecast to open
up into a trough while moving well south of the Hawaiian islands by
60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 15.8N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 201446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021

...FELICIA FADING FAST BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 138.0W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 138.0 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general
west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected and Felicia is expected to become
a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low
on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 201445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 138.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 137.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 140.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 145.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 138.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

Felicia is a rapidly weakening tropical cyclone. The system has been
reduced to a low- to mid-level cloud swirl in satellite imagery,
with no deep and organized convection near its center since about
0100 UTC. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show several 35-kt
vectors in the northern semicircle of the compact cyclone, which
supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt with this advisory.

The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/13 kt. It is
expected to turn slightly more west-southwestward later today and
maintain this heading for the next several days as it is steered by
a subtropical ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and lies near the center of
the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Based on this forecast,
Felicia will move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday night.

Felicia is embedded within a dry and stable airmass over SSTs of
around 25 deg C, and the cyclone will move under the influence of
strong northwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or so.
Thus, it appears very unlikely that Felicia will be able to sustain
any organized convection near its center, even as it moves deeper
into the tropics over slightly warmer SSTs. The official NHC
intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus and weakens
Felicia to a tropical depression in 12 h, and to a remnant low by
36 h. However, this could occur even sooner based on recent trends
and the latest model-simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low
is forecast to open up into a trough by Thursday night as it passes
well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 136.3W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2030 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 136.3 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
Felicia is forecast to become a tropical depression on Tuesday and
degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.3W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 136.3W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 136.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200237
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken over sea-surface temperatures
(SST) of around 25 deg C and within a cooler and drier air mass.
After an earlier burst of strong convection, all that remains of it
is limited to the northeastern quadrant along with cloud tops now
having warmed to -55C to -60C. The latest satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB were 45 kt, and that is the intensity
assigned for this advisory. Additional weakening is forecast through
the remainder of the 72-h forecast period due to the cyclone
remaining over SSTs near 25C, westerly vertical wind shear
increasing to more than 30 kt by 24 hours, and continued entrainment
of drier and cooler low- to mid-level air. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a
blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.

The initial motion estimate remains a little south of due west, or
265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of
the cyclone is expected to steer Felicia west-southwestward to
westward over the next few days until the small cyclone dissipates
by 96 hours, if not sooner. Felicia will likely cross into the
Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. The new official track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies between
the tightly packed TVCE and NOAA-HCCA track forecast models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 16.1N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 134.8W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 134.8 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward
the west or west-southwest is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Felicia is expected to become
a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon and degenerate into a
remnant low in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 134.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 192039
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

Felicia continues to weaken at a rapid pace. Satellite images show
that only a small amount of deep convection in the northeastern
quadrant remains, and otherwise the circulation is largely a swirl
of low-level clouds. Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a
blend of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at
the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity
to 55 kt. This makes Felicia a tropical storm once again. A recent
ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds close to 45 kt, but given the very
small size of the system and relatively coarse resolution of the
instrument, it seems reasonable that stronger winds are occurring.

Very dry air surrounding the small storm combined with cool SSTs
and a steady rise in northwesterly wind shear should cause
additional weakening, and Felicia will likely become a remnant low
in a couple of days, or possibly sooner if the current trends
continue. The intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance
and is a little lower than the previous one.

Felicia has been losing some latitude today, and the latest initial
motion estimate is 265/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the storm should steer Felicia west-southwestward to
westward during the next several days until the cyclone dissipates,
which is now expected to occur by day 4. Based on the current
forecast, Felicia should cross into the Central Pacific basin by
Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 16.1N 133.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 192035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 133.4W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 133.4 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slightly faster
westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and
Felicia is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days.

Felicia is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 192034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 133.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 132.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.9N 135.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.1N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 133.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 191438 CCA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 132.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 191435
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken as it heads toward the Central
Pacific. Satellite images show a shrinking area of deep convection
that is now generally confined to the northeast quadrant of the
circulation. The Dvorak classifications continue to fall, and a
blend of the latest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to
70 kt, and even that seems generous.

The weakening and very compact storm is surrounded by dry mid-level
air. This stable environment, cool 25 C SSTs, and increasing wind
shear should cause the rapid weakening trend to continue. Felicia is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today and a remnant
low in a few days when it expected to be in an environment of about
40 kt of northwesterly shear and very dry air, which will likely
cause all of the deep convection to dissipate. The NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, and in line with the
majority of the latest guidance.

Felicia is moving westward at about 10 kt. A slightly faster
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next
several days as Felicia, or its remnants, move in the flow on the
south side of a low- to mid-level high to its north. The NHC track
forecast is just a tad south of the previous one and lies close to
the various consensus aids. Based on the current forecast, the
weakening system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific
basin by tomorrow night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 191434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Mon Jul 19 2021

...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 132.3W
ABOUT 1515 MI...2435 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 132.3 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster
westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and
Felicia is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a
remnant low in a few days.

Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 191433
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 132.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 131.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 134.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 142.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 144.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 153.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 132.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190839
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer
visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded
underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI
microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined
eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern
portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective
UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory.

Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next
couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an
environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of
this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner
core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to
maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening
that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all
deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the
northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone.

Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun
turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be
280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast
during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a
subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track
forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward
adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on
this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central
Pacific basin on Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190838
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 131.0W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 131.0 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next several days.

Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190838
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 131.0W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 131.0W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 131.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 114.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2021 0 18.6N 114.8W 1002 32
1200UTC 19.07.2021 12 18.6N 117.6W 1003 31
0000UTC 20.07.2021 24 18.9N 120.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 20.07.2021 36 18.6N 124.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 21.07.2021 48 18.4N 127.5W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2021 60 18.2N 130.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 22.07.2021 72 18.2N 132.9W 1008 25
1200UTC 22.07.2021 84 18.3N 136.0W 1010 25
0000UTC 23.07.2021 96 18.6N 139.0W 1012 25
1200UTC 23.07.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 129.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2021 0 16.4N 129.6W 965 77
1200UTC 19.07.2021 12 16.4N 131.6W 986 55
0000UTC 20.07.2021 24 16.2N 133.6W 993 55
1200UTC 20.07.2021 36 15.7N 136.1W 1000 41
0000UTC 21.07.2021 48 15.0N 139.0W 1004 36
1200UTC 21.07.2021 60 14.5N 141.8W 1005 35
0000UTC 22.07.2021 72 14.1N 144.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.07.2021 84 13.8N 146.9W 1005 38
0000UTC 23.07.2021 96 13.8N 149.9W 1007 36
1200UTC 23.07.2021 108 14.0N 153.0W 1007 35
0000UTC 24.07.2021 120 14.2N 156.4W 1010 34
1200UTC 24.07.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190403

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 114.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.07.2021 18.6N 114.8W WEAK
12UTC 19.07.2021 18.6N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 18.9N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 18.6N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2021 18.4N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 18.2N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 18.2N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2021 18.3N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2021 18.6N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 129.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.07.2021 16.4N 129.6W STRONG
12UTC 19.07.2021 16.4N 131.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.07.2021 16.2N 133.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.07.2021 15.7N 136.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.07.2021 15.0N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 14.5N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 14.1N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2021 13.8N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2021 13.8N 149.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2021 14.0N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2021 14.2N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190403

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190232
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Felicia continues to decline over water temperatures near or just
below 26C. The eye is gradually becoming more difficult to locate in
satellite imagery, and the CDO, while already small to begin with,
has shrunk in size over the past several hours. A blend of the
latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the
hurricane has weakened to 90 kt. However, given that environment is
not too hostile at the moment, is it reasonable to believe that the
vortex of this mature tropical cyclone will take time to spin down
despite the degradation in satellite images. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being lowered to a perhaps generous 95 kt for this
advisory.

The cooler waters alone should continue to take a toll on Felicia
over the next couple of days by gradually eroding the deep
convection. After 48 h, increasing northwesterly shear should help
to inject dry and stable air into what remains of the core of the
cyclone. By 96 h, if not sooner, Felicia is expected to have lost
all of its deep convection and decay into a remnant low. The latest
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one
through the first few days of the forecast period due to the rapidly
decreasing wind speeds, and is near the ICON intensity consensus
model. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
the previous one.

Felicia continues its 10-kt west-northwestward trek to the south of
a subtropical ridge. There is no change to the track forecast
reasoning. Model guidance is in good agreement on the cyclone
turning westward by Monday then perhaps west-southwestward later in
the forecast period as the ridge expands and becomes oriented NE-SW.
The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and
lies in the middle of the consensus guidance. Based on this track,
Felicia should cross over into the central Pacific basin Tuesday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 130.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

...FELICIA RAPIDLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 130.1W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 130.1 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
the west is expected later tonight or on Monday. A general westward
motion should then continue for a few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
expected during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0300 UTC MON JUL 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 130.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 182200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 128.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 128.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.3N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.3N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.0N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.6N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.0N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.2N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.5N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 129.2W.
18JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1183 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WAVE HEIGHTS.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 182033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

The satellite presentation of Felicia has degraded since the last
advisory. The eye is more cloud filled, and the eyewall cloud-top
temperatures have warmed. A consensus of the T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT gives an initial wind speed of 105 kt,
which is also close to a wind estimate derived from experimental
NESDIS Synthetic Aperture Radar data a few hours ago.

It does seem like this is the beginning of long-heralded steady
weakening with less conducive environmental conditions ahead, such
as cooler water, higher upper-level shear, along with the loss of
the stable annular structure (as suggested by recent microwave
data). Thus, the new intensity forecast is considerably lower than
the previous one, closest to the intensity consensus IVCN and the
NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA. Felicia should be weakening quickly
by the time it enters the Central Pacific due to strong shear, and
the new forecast decays the cyclone to a remnant low by day 4.

Felicia continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The
guidance is fairly locked into a westward turn by Monday, then a
west-southwest motion due to the orientation of the subtropical
ridge for the rest of the forecast period. While the various aids
have changed somewhat, the latest model consensus is quite close to
the previous NHC track forecast, so the new forecast is almost the
same as the last one, except slightly farther north in the short
term.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 16.0N 129.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 182033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

...FEISTY FELICIA FINALLY WEAKENING FASTER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 129.0W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 129.0 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a
west-southwestward track through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Felicia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the
next few days.

Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 182033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 129.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 129.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 130.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 132.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.3N 134.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 137.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 140.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.0N 142.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.2N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 13.5N 154.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 129.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 181435
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Some changes have been seen with Felicia during the past several
hours. The eye is not quite as warm in satellite pictures, and
there are banding features present in the eastern semicircle of the
hurricane. Overall, Felicia's previously very symmetric appearance
has become a little distorted to the northeast. Both SAB and TAFB
give an initial wind estimate of 115 kt, and that value is used for
this advisory.

The big question is when will Felicia begin to weaken more
significantly. Any environmental changes are fairly subtle during
the next couple of days, with somewhat cooler waters and a slight
increase in upper-level shear likely. While annular structure
tends to be more stable, Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone,
and those petite systems usually weaken quickly in marginal
environments. Additionally, the latest microwave data has some
suggestion of the early stages of an eyewall cycle (although it
showed the same thing yesterday without much impact). All of these
complex factors lead to this being a low confidence forecast during
the next day or two. The new intensity forecast is a bit lower
than the previous one, owing to the recent degradation in
structure, but is still above the guidance mean. In about 3 days,
much stronger shear should impact Felicia, leading to a quick death
near or just after day 4.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward by Monday, then move west-southwestward
through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by a large ridge across
the central Pacific. There is a little more spread in the guidance
this morning, partially related to exactly how quickly Felicia
weakens. The ECMWF, for instance, shows a faster decrease in wind
speed, and is more to the southwest of the other guidance,
consistent with the low-level steering flow. The GFS has the system
moving slower and a little more poleward due to its stronger
depiction of Felicia. The new forecast is slightly weighted toward
the GFS solution, near the TCVN consensus, resulting in a small
northward adjustment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 15.7N 128.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.4N 133.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 16.2N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 15.8N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 15.2N 141.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 14.2N 146.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 13.5N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 181433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

...SMALL FELICIA STILL PACKING A CATEGORY FOUR PUNCH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 128.1W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 128.1 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a
west-southwestward track through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is
forecast today, followed by faster weakening through midweek.

Felicia is a very small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 181432
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 127.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 133.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.2N 136.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 139.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.2N 141.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.2N 146.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 13.5N 152.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 128.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180840
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Felicia has maintained its impressive structure tonight, with a
symmetric ring of very cold infrared cloud-top temperatures
surrounding a warm and well-defined eye. Recent microwave imagery
shows that Felicia still has a very compact inner core. The initial
intensity is maintained at 120 kt, as the hurricane's satellite
appearance has shown no signs of decay since the last advisory. This
intensity is consistent with subjective T6.0 Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB.

Felicia should weaken during the next couple of days as the
hurricane moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, although this
could be a gradual process while the vertical wind shear remains
low. By Tuesday, increasing northwesterly wind shear in a drier,
more stable environment is expected to accelerate the weakening of
Felicia through the middle and latter parts of the week. Although
the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status by day 5, it is
plausible that this could occur even sooner if the higher shear
values in the ECMWF SHIPS guidance materialize. The official NHC
intensity forecast lies above the guidance model consensus through
48 h, then aligns with the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA)
aid through the rest of the forecast period.

Felicia is still moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The track
guidance has been quite consistent and remains in very good
agreement, which makes for a high confidence track forecast. The
cyclone is expected to turn more westward by Monday, then move
west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by an
expansive ridge across the central Pacific. The NHC track forecast
is essentially unchanged from the previous one and lies between the
reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 15.5N 127.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

...FELICIA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 127.1W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 127.1 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward
motion is expected to begin later today or tonight, followed by a
turn to the west-southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast today, followed
by a faster rate of weakening on Monday and Tuesday.

Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180838
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 5SE 5SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.07.2021 0 17.2N 110.8W 1005 23
1200UTC 18.07.2021 12 17.7N 112.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 19.07.2021 24 18.1N 115.3W 1003 30
1200UTC 19.07.2021 36 18.1N 118.2W 1003 32
0000UTC 20.07.2021 48 18.5N 121.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 20.07.2021 60 18.6N 124.9W 1005 30
0000UTC 21.07.2021 72 18.7N 128.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 21.07.2021 84 18.5N 131.9W 1008 28
0000UTC 22.07.2021 96 18.1N 135.0W 1010 26
1200UTC 22.07.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 125.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.07.2021 0 15.0N 125.8W 953 80
1200UTC 18.07.2021 12 15.6N 127.4W 960 75
0000UTC 19.07.2021 24 16.3N 129.5W 977 67
1200UTC 19.07.2021 36 16.4N 131.6W 984 62
0000UTC 20.07.2021 48 16.2N 133.6W 990 54
1200UTC 20.07.2021 60 15.6N 136.0W 998 42
0000UTC 21.07.2021 72 14.8N 138.8W 1001 37
1200UTC 21.07.2021 84 14.1N 141.5W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.07.2021 96 13.4N 143.9W 1004 34
1200UTC 22.07.2021 108 12.7N 146.0W 1004 33
0000UTC 23.07.2021 120 12.5N 148.6W 1006 34
1200UTC 23.07.2021 132 12.5N 151.1W 1007 34
0000UTC 24.07.2021 144 12.8N 153.7W 1008 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180401

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 180401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.07.2021 17.2N 110.8W WEAK
12UTC 18.07.2021 17.7N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2021 18.1N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2021 18.1N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 18.5N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 18.6N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2021 18.7N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 18.5N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 18.1N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 125.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.07.2021 15.0N 125.8W INTENSE
12UTC 18.07.2021 15.6N 127.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.07.2021 16.3N 129.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.07.2021 16.4N 131.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.07.2021 16.2N 133.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.07.2021 15.6N 136.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.07.2021 14.8N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 14.1N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 13.4N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2021 12.7N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2021 12.5N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2021 12.5N 151.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2021 12.8N 153.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180401

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 125.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 125.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.6N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.1N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.3N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.1N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.6N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.6N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.9N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 126.3W.
18JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1155 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND
190400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Satellite images indicate that Felicia remains a well-organized
hurricane with an annular structure and a clear eye. However, the
eye temperature has cooled a bit, along with some eyewall
cloud-top warming. Intensity estimates have fallen somewhat, so
the initial wind speed is reduced to 120 kt for this advisory.

Gradually cooling SSTs should cause a general weakening trend with
Felicia during the next day or so. The rate of weakening should
increase sometime Monday due to decreasing instability and a modest
rise in upper-level wind shear, which could assist with dry-air
entrainment near the inner core. Due to the system's small size,
Felicia could also weaken fairly quickly by Tuesday in these
marginal environmental conditions, although this type of scenario
is inherently low confidence. The new forecast remains on the high
side of the guidance but is reduced from the previous one. By the
end of the forecast period, stronger shear should be impacting the
system, and hopefully we will be able to say bye Felicia on
Thursday.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The hurricane
is forecast to turn again toward the west by late Sunday as a
mid-level ridge to the north builds slightly. Felicia should
then turn west-southwestward early in the work week due to the
orientation of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the
central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is very low,
leading to a high confidence track forecast, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the various consensus aids and the last
advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 15.2N 126.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

...FIERCE FELICIA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 126.1W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 126.1 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward
the west is anticipated by late Sunday, followed by another turn
toward the west-southwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast
by the end of the weekend, and a faster rate of weakening is
expected on Monday and Tuesday.

Felicia remains a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180236
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0300 UTC SUN JUL 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 126.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 124.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 124.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.3N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.8N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.1N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.0N 134.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.6N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.7N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.0N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 125.5W.
17JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1161 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND
182200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (GUILLERMO) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 172032
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Felicia has remained an impressive hurricane this morning. The
hurricane's clear eye is still surrounded by a ring of very cold
cloud tops and recent microwave overpasses show that the tiny
cyclone continues to exhibit a very symmetric convective inner-core
structure. The intensity estimate is still 125 kt, based on the
latest TAFB Dvorak fix. Due to the small size of the hurricane and
the lack of ground truth so far from land, it is worth mentioning
that the uncertainty in that estimate is somewhat higher than usual.

Virtually no change was made to the NHC track, intensity, or size
forecasts, though the uncertainty in the intensity forecast remains
high. All of the available intensity guidance continues to insist
that at least gradual weakening will begin soon. Although that
hasn't panned out yet, cooler SSTs ahead of Felicia could still
contribute to at least a little weakening later today and Sunday. A
faster rate of weakening is expected by around 48 h as the small
cyclone moves over colder-yet waters and possibly encounters some
moderate wind shear. There is poor agreement among the various
global and regional models how soon the shear will affect Felicia.
Once it does, the hurricane will likely decline rapidly due to the
very small size of its inner core. By 72 h, every typically
reliable intensity model shows Felicia below hurricane strength.
The official intensity forecast remains on the very high side of
the guidance, closest to the interpolated GFS forecast for the
first 3 days, and is near the intensity consensus after that.

Felicia has turned west-northwestward, with a forward speed of
around 7 kt. In contrast to the intensity forecast, confidence in
the track forecast is very high. A turn back toward the west is
anticipated by late Sunday as a ridge to the north of Felicia builds
slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early next
week as it comes under the influence of an extensive deep-layer
ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track
guidance is low, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 14.9N 125.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 172031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

...CATEGORY FOUR FELICIA MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND NOW MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 125.3W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 125.3 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward
the west is anticipated by late Sunday, followed by another turn
toward the west-southwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today,
and slight weakening is forecast by the end of the weekend. A faster
rate of weakening is expected by early next week.

Felicia is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 172031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 125.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 124.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 124.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.8N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.0N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.7N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.0N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 124.7W.
17JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1159 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z
IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 124.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 124.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.8N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.0N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.0N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.7N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.0N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 124.7W.
17JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1159 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z AND 181600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 171444
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Felicia provided another surprise early this morning, with a ring
of very cold cloud tops (<-70 deg C) developing around the clear
eye of the tiny hurricane. The 12Z TAFB Dvorak analysis was
T6.5/127 kt and that is the basis for the 125 kt intensity
estimate. Cloud tops have warmed ever so slightly since 12Z, but
the hurricane's satellite presentation remains very impressive.

Due to the higher initial intensity, the first 36 h of the intensity
forecast has been increased as well. Slight weakening is anticipated
by tonight as Felicia begins to move over marginally cool SSTs.
Internal factors such as eyewall replacement cycles are also
possible with any major hurricane and could result in shorter-term
intensity changes that are not reflected in the forecast. By around
48 h, Felicia is forecast to move over waters below 26 deg C, and
some models like the ECMWF and HWRF also indicate it could begin to
encounter less favorable upper-level winds. If that solution bears
out, Felicia could weaken even faster than indicated since the
surrounding environment is fairly dry and the hurricane's small size
makes it particularly susceptible to rapid intensity changes. The
NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope
through 36 h and near the intensity consensus by the end of the
5-day period. It is worth noting that confidence is high that
Felicia will weaken dramatically by the end of the forecast period,
but considerable uncertainty remains in the details of exactly when
and at what rate it will happen.

Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the track forecast.
Felicia is currently moving westward near 7 kt, and that general
motion will likely continue today. The dynamical guidance is in good
agreement that small fluctuations in ridging to the north of Felicia
should allow the hurricane to turn west-northwestward by Sunday, and
then back toward the west in about 48 h. An extensive deep-layer
ridge centered over the central Pacific should then cause Felicia to
gradually accelerate west-southwestward through the end of the
forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is near but just
south of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 14.6N 124.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 171441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

...TINY BUT FEROCIOUS FELICIA CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 124.6W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Felicia was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 124.6 West. Felicia is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue today. A slight turn toward the west-northwest
is expected tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn back toward the
west late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is a strong category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible today, and slight weakening is forecast by the end of the
weekend. A faster rate of weakening is expected by early next week.

Felicia is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 171440
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ61 KNHC 171347 CCA
TCUEP1

Hurricane Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
330 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Corrected header

...FELICIA STRENGTHENS FURTHER...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that the maximum
sustained winds of Felicia have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. This higher intensity will be reflected in the
next advisory, issued by 500 AM HST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ61 KNHC 171330
TCUEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
330 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021


...FELICIA STRENGTHENS FURTHER...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that the maximum
sustained winds of Felicia have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. This higher intensity will be reflected in the
next advisory, issued by 500 AM HST (1500 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 330 AM AST...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 171000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 123.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 123.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.6N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.9N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.3N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.8N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.6N 134.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.7N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.8N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171000Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 124.0W.
17JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1141 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171600Z, 172200Z, 180400Z AND 181000Z.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170859
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia remains an impressively compact major hurricane on satellite
imagery tonight. The storm possesses a circular, clear, and warm
(10-15 C) eye surrounded by an equally symmetrical central dense
overcast (CDO) with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 C. In
addition, a 0535 UTC GMI microwave pass showed a singular closed
eyewall, with only limited outer banding outside of the inner core.
The 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB
were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt respectively, while the UW-CIMSS
ADT objective estimate was holding steady at T5.7/107 kt. Since that
time, cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye have cooled a bit
more during the diurnal max, so the initial intensity is held at 115
kt, in agreement with the higher TAFB estimate.

The hurricane has maintained more of a west-southwest motion over
the past 6-12 hours at 255/8 kt. This motion is expected to
gradually bend back westward or west-northwestward over the weekend
into early next week as a narrow mid-level ridge axis shifts back to
the north-northeast of Felicia. In the latter part of the forecast
period, a stronger deep-layer ridge north of Hawaii is expected to
become the primary steering feature, leading to a Felicia turning
back west-southwestward with gradual acceleration. The track
guidance has shifted a tad further north early on, and has continued
to speed up the forward motion near the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little more
poleward in the first 60 hours, closer to the HCCA and TVCE
consensus aids, and is faster after 72 hours. The forecast track
still lies roughly between the previous forecast and the
aforementioned track consensus aids.

Felicia currently has the structural characteristics of an annular
hurricane, featuring a warm eye and cold circular CDO with little
additional banding beyond the eyewall. Even though sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs) slowly decrease over the next 36 hours as
Felicia remains embedded in a dry mid-level relative humidity
environment, the modest easterly vertical wind shear (around 5-kt)
forecast over the cyclone will likely prevent dry-air entrainment
that could disrupt the stable eyewall structure. Thus, the intensity
forecast for the first 36-48 hours remains above the majority of the
guidance and it would not be surprising to see Felicia maintain its
category 4 intensity longer than forecasted in the short-term. After
60 hours, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance shows a sharp increase in
northwesterly vertical winds shear as the hurricane tracks along the
26 C SST isotherm. These more unfavorable environmental conditions
will likely lead to significant disruption of Felicia's tiny inner
core. The weakening rate has been increased a bit more in the latter
portion of the latest NHC intensity forecast, falling near the mean
of the intensity guidance and HCCA consensus aid by the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 14.6N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.7N 130.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 15.8N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 15.6N 134.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 14.7N 140.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 13.8N 145.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A COMPACT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 123.9W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 123.9 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to
the west at a similar speed is forecast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the
weekend with a faster rate of weakening expected by early next week.

Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.9W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.9W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.6N 125.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 132.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.6N 134.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 14.7N 140.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 13.8N 145.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 122.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 122.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.7N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.1N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.4N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.9N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 123.4W.
17JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1118 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171000Z, 171600Z, 172200Z AND 180400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 170232
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia continues to exhibit characteristics of a classic major
hurricane. The eye remains clear while the CDO is symmetrical with
uniform cold cloud tops surrounding the center. The latest Dvorak
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at
115 kt for this advisory. Felicia is a small hurricane, and recent
ASCAT overpasses showed that the tropical-storm-force winds extend
only about 40-50 n mi from the center.

Since earlier this afternoon, the hurricane has been moving south
of due west, or 260/08 kt. A strong ridge to the north of the
Felicia is expected to maintain it on a generally westward motion
for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the model
guidance has trended toward a slightly faster forward motion. The
latest NHC forecast track is close to the previous one through 72 h,
but now lies in between the previous forecast and the track
consensus guidance thereafter.

Felicia is expected to move over gradually decreasing SSTs over the
next few days which should induce a slow weakening trend beginning
later tonight or on Saturday. Although the hurricane is surrounded
by dry air, it is maintaining an annular structure while it is
expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for
at least a few more days. These factors may prevent this dry air
from entraining into the cyclone's circulation for some time.
Because of this, the latest NHC intensity prediction remains on the
high end of the guidance for the entire forecast period, with the
main factor contributing to weakening being the cooler SSTs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 170231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

...POWERFUL YET COMPACT FELICIA CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 123.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of powerful Hurricane Felicia
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 123.2 West. Felicia
is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin by
late tonight or early Saturday and continue through early next week.

Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 170231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0300 UTC SAT JUL 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 122.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 162200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 122.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 122.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.8N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 14.8N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 15.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.3N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.4N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.8N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162200Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 122.5W.
16JUL21. HURRICANE 06E (FELICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1095 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170400Z, 171000Z, 171600Z AND 172200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 162031
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia has continued to strengthen late this morning and early
afternoon, with a very distinct clear eye embedded in the center of
a smooth CDO feature. Although objective satellite classifications
have plateaued at 105-107 kt over the past several hours, likely due
to some warming of the surrounding cloud tops around the eye, the
1800Z subjective intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T6.0 or
115 kt. Internal NHC satellite analyses concur with this estimate.
Based on the persistent TAFB classification and the pronounced eye
feature noted in visible imagery, the initial intensity has been
increased to 115 kt, making Felicia a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Felicia is moving westward again or 265/08 kt. The global and
regional models maintain the strong deep-layer ridge to the north
of the hurricane for the next 120 hours, with only minor track
deviations from a due westward motion expected throughout the
forecast period. The bulk of the latest model guidance has shifted
noticeably northward or to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the new NHC advisory track has been shifted in that
direction as well. However, the new track forecast was not shifted
as far north as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and
instead lies near the southern edge of the track guidance envelope.

Some fluctuations in intensity will still be possible during the
next 12 h as the hurricane traverses a series of small cool and
warm ocean currents or eddies. However, by late tonight or early
Saturday, Felicia is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend
due to cool ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane, along with
intermittent entrainment of very dry mid-level air. However, the
rate of weakening is forecast to be slower than normal due to
expected low vertical wind shear (<10 kt) conditions and Felicia's
stable, annular structure. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the
intensity guidance, which is above most of the consensus and
statistical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 14.9N 122.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 162031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 122.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of powerful Hurricane Felicia
was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 122.4 West. Felicia
is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength
will be possible today, but slow weakening is expected to begin by
late tonight or early Saturday.

Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 162030
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 122.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 122.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161452 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Corrected 24-hour forecast position

Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this
morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in
infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops
surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past
several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the
inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt
and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of
hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to
110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based
on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the
slightly degraded aforementioned convective features.

Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer
ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia
moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the
global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat,
which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of
and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the
middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models
TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to
low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly
becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the
powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat
content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that
cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours.
Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from
24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow
weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the
remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt)
vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 161448 CCA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

CORRECTED 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 161433
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this
morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in
infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops
surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past
several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the
inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt
and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of
hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to
110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based
on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the
slightly degraded aforementioned convective features.

Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer
ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia
moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the
global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat,
which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of
and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the
middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models
TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to
low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly
becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the
powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat
content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that
cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours.
Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from
24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow
weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the
remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt)
vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 13.1N 140.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 161432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 121.6W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 121.6 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west
is forecast to occur by late tonight or early Saturday, with a
westward motion expected to continue through the weekend and into
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Felicia is a strong category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible today, and Felicia could become a category 4 hurricane
later this morning. Slow weakening is expected to begin by tonight,
and continue through the weekend and into early next week.

Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 161431
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.6W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.1N 140.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160859
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Tiny Felicia has continued to intensify tonight. Earlier SSMIS
microwave imagery showed that the hurricane was maintaining a closed
circular eyewall and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye on
infrared satellite have continued to cool below -70 C. Scatterometer
data from an ASCAT-A pass at 0418 UTC also indicated the small size
of Felicia's wind field, with peak 34-kt wind radii only extending
roughly 50 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Subjective
Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB
while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was T5.4/100 kt. A
blend of these intensity estimates support a current intensity of
100 kt, making Felicia the first major hurricane in the East Pacific
basin this year.

Felicia now appears to be moving slightly south of due west with the
latest estimated motion at 260/8 kt. Now that the strongest
deep-layer ridging is positioned northwest of the hurricane, a
west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next day
or so. Afterwards, a narrow ridge axis shifts back north of Felicia,
and the cyclone is expected to resume a more due westward motion
between 24 to 72 hours. In the latter portion of the track forecast,
the hurricane will come under the influence of a stronger mid-level
ridge located north of Hawaii, resulting in another leftward turn by
the end of the forecast period. The latest track guidance remains in
good agreement for the majority of the forecast. The official NHC
forecast is a touch south of the previous track and lies between the
HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.

Additional short-term intensification is forecast while Felicia
remains in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear
between 5-10 kt and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between
27-28 C. Thereafter, mid-level humidity values are forecasted by the
ECMWF-SHIPS guidance to drop below 50 percent as SSTs also gradually
decrease. However, both deep-layer (200-850 hPa) and mid-level
vertical wind shear are expected to remain light and easterly
through at least the next 72 hours. Light easterly shear in
combination with marginally warm SSTs are common environmental
factors associated with major hurricanes that develop annular
characteristics, and these storms are known to weaken at a slower
than typical rate. To account for this possibility, the intensity
forecast only shows very gradual weakening between 24 to 48 hours
which is above the majority of the intensity guidance but lies
closest to CTCI (COAMPS-TC). Afterwards, Felicia's weakening rate is
forecast to increase as SSTs cool further, and northwesterly
vertical-wind shear impinges on the cyclone by the end of the
forecast period. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is
closer to the mean of the intensity guidance and is near the HCCA
intensity consensus aid at 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.1N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...FELICIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FURTHER STRENGTHENING FORECASTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
west-southwest motion is expected over the next 24 hours with a
turn back to the west expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia is now category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is
forecast today. This will be followed by a very gradual weakening
trend through the end of the weekend.

Felicia is a small tropical cyclone, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160846
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.07.2021 0 12.0N 99.4W 1009 27
1200UTC 16.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 38.4N 58.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.07.2021 0 38.4N 58.4W 1018 19
1200UTC 16.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.07.2021 0 15.2N 120.0W 966 76
1200UTC 16.07.2021 12 15.1N 121.6W 958 81
0000UTC 17.07.2021 24 14.7N 123.4W 966 66
1200UTC 17.07.2021 36 14.2N 124.9W 970 71
0000UTC 18.07.2021 48 14.2N 126.6W 976 58
1200UTC 18.07.2021 60 14.5N 128.4W 979 56
0000UTC 19.07.2021 72 14.7N 130.3W 981 60
1200UTC 19.07.2021 84 14.9N 132.2W 984 60
0000UTC 20.07.2021 96 15.0N 134.1W 986 55
1200UTC 20.07.2021 108 14.9N 135.9W 989 52
0000UTC 21.07.2021 120 14.7N 138.0W 992 51
1200UTC 21.07.2021 132 14.3N 140.2W 993 46
0000UTC 22.07.2021 144 14.0N 142.5W 997 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 16.7N 108.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.07.2021 36 16.7N 108.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 18.07.2021 48 17.5N 111.8W 1003 31
1200UTC 18.07.2021 60 18.0N 114.1W 1003 33
0000UTC 19.07.2021 72 18.7N 116.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 19.07.2021 84 19.4N 119.5W 1006 30
0000UTC 20.07.2021 96 19.5N 122.4W 1008 26
1200UTC 20.07.2021 108 19.9N 125.4W 1010 24
0000UTC 21.07.2021 120 19.7N 128.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 21.07.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160400

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 160400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 99.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.07.2021 12.0N 99.4W WEAK
12UTC 16.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 38.4N 58.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.07.2021 38.4N 58.4W WEAK
12UTC 16.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.07.2021 15.2N 120.0W STRONG
12UTC 16.07.2021 15.1N 121.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.07.2021 14.7N 123.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.07.2021 14.2N 124.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.07.2021 14.2N 126.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.07.2021 14.5N 128.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2021 14.7N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2021 14.9N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 15.0N 134.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 14.9N 135.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2021 14.7N 138.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 14.3N 140.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2021 14.0N 142.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 16.7N 108.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.07.2021 16.7N 108.9W WEAK
00UTC 18.07.2021 17.5N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.07.2021 18.0N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2021 18.7N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2021 19.4N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 19.5N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 19.9N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2021 19.7N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160400

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 160253
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly
strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly
warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep
convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed
ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg
Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these
current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt
for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective
estimates of around 100 kt.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along
Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional
strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the
surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's
intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major
hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the
guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows
the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone
is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more
stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps
Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the
cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the
forecast period.

Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the
steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the
cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day
or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion
for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a
subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered
through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted
just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one,
bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and
HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 160250
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 120.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 120.2 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-southwest is expected by Friday, and a westward motion is
forecast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight,
and Felicia is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight.
Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 160249
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 152035
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night
suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and
recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been
occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80
degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the
corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend
of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to
85 kt.

Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to
the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of
Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward
for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once
again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would
result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period.
The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.

The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and
the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over
warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This
should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday,
Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to
disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over
slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually
weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC
intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance
through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions
currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 152034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 119.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.4 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to
the west-southwest is expected by Friday with a westward
motion expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through
tonight. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 152034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 151437
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery.
However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the
southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature
somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent
in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with
persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center.
The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the
available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support
increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory.

Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the
initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of
the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day
or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple
of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become
positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a
westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest
NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is
near the tightly clustered track guidance.

Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have
increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a
possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term
due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening
should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late
Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may
begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to
move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to
gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the
guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place.
Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach model HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 151436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 118.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.6 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to
the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected
to continue over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified over the past
day or so, and additional strengthening is expected through early
Friday. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 151436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 150858
TCDEP1

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Overnight, Felicia has maintained a small, but circular central
dense overcast near its estimated center. A fortuitous GMI microwave
pass at 0545 UTC depicted a well-defined mid-level eye on the 89 GHz
channel, with deep convection wrapped three-fourths around the south
and east sides of Felicia's center. Since that time, the storm's
infrared satellite structure has improved further, with a distinct
warm spot apparent near Felicia's center with colder than -70 C
cloud tops wrapping around this feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 0600 UTC, but a more
recent objective ADT estimate was up to T4.4/75 kt. Given the
additional improvement seen on geostationary satellite imagery since
0600 UTC, the latest initial intensity was raised to 75 kt this
advisory, making Felicia a hurricane.

Felicia appears to be starting a leftward turn, with the latest
estimated motion at 280/10 kt. Over the next 24-36 hours, a weak
upper-level trough currently centered over Baja California is
forecast to cutoff and shift the mid-level ridging, currently north
of Felicia, to the northwest ahead of the cyclone. This ridge
reorientation is expected to result in a slow west-southwestward
motion of Felicia beginning in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the
mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of the cyclone,
allowing a resumption of a more westward motion after 60 hours. The
latest track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted a
bit more southward this cycle. The official NHC track forecast is
also a little south of the previous forecast, blending the latest
track forecasts from the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Felicia has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours from a
tropical depression to a category one hurricane. In the short term,
Felicia remains in an environment of low (5-10 kt) vertical wind
shear and warm (27-28 C) sea surface temperatures. Now that the
hurricane appears to have developed an inner core with convection
axis-symmetric around it, additional intensification is expected
with a new peak intensity of 95 kt forecasted in 24 to 36 hours. The
first part of the NHC intensity forecast is on the upper end of the
intensity guidance due to the higher initial intensity, and also
given the possibility rapid intensification continues, as suggested
by SHIPS-RII guidance, which gives Felicia a one-in-three chance of
a 25 kt intensity increase over the next 24 hours. Afterwards, while
vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, mid-level relative
humidity is expected to decrease, leaving the small tropical cyclone
susceptible to dry-air intrusions as sea surface temperatures also
gradually decrease. A combination of these environmental factors are
expected to lead to gradual weakening beginning after 36 hours
through the end of the forecast. The latter portion of the NHC
intensity forecast is in better agreement with the intensity
guidance and closely follows the HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.2N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 150851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...FELICIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...
...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 117.6W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 117.6 West. Felicia is
now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to
the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected
to continue over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified into a category 1
hurricane over the past 24 hours and further intensification is
expected over the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 150850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC THU JUL 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 117.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 150235
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a
symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep
convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the
eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps
suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted
in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have
sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A
blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB
(T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of
60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective
ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the
cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward
during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the
ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward
motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low-
to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The
track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight
southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple
of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The
only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding
environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization
if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The
SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and
more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which
is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a
gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The
official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one
and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast
becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected
west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26
deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near
hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 150234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 116.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.7 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual
turn to the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a
west-southwestward motion on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the
next couple of days, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane
late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 150234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0300 UTC THU JUL 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 142033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in
organization and convective banding in association with Felicia.
The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more
symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass
revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted
around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45
kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates.

Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm
SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt.
The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening,
perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some
pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through
24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the
inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable
air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual
weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through
much of the forecast period.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should
continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through
early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and
become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause
Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a
west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through
the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in
fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence
in the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 142033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 115.3W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 115.3 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through Thursday. A turn toward the west is expected by Thursday
night, and a westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast
Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and
Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 142032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 112.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.07.2021 0 14.1N 112.8W 1008 23
0000UTC 15.07.2021 12 14.7N 114.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 15.07.2021 24 15.1N 117.0W 1009 21
0000UTC 16.07.2021 36 15.3N 118.8W 1007 24
1200UTC 16.07.2021 48 15.0N 120.7W 1007 25
0000UTC 17.07.2021 60 14.4N 122.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 17.07.2021 72 13.9N 124.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 18.07.2021 84 13.6N 126.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 18.07.2021 96 13.5N 128.5W 1007 24
0000UTC 19.07.2021 108 13.4N 130.3W 1007 24
1200UTC 19.07.2021 120 13.3N 132.2W 1007 25
0000UTC 20.07.2021 132 13.2N 134.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2021 144 12.9N 136.0W 1007 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 106.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.07.2021 60 14.7N 106.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 17.07.2021 72 16.1N 109.9W 1004 27
0000UTC 18.07.2021 84 17.0N 112.3W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.07.2021 96 17.5N 114.4W 1002 35
0000UTC 19.07.2021 108 18.2N 116.4W 1003 33
1200UTC 19.07.2021 120 18.9N 118.9W 1004 35
0000UTC 20.07.2021 132 19.0N 121.4W 1005 29
1200UTC 20.07.2021 144 19.2N 123.9W 1008 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141601

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 112.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.07.2021 14.1N 112.8W WEAK
00UTC 15.07.2021 14.7N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2021 15.1N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2021 15.3N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.07.2021 15.0N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.07.2021 14.4N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.07.2021 13.9N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.07.2021 13.6N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.07.2021 13.5N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2021 13.4N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2021 13.3N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 13.2N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 12.9N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 106.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.07.2021 14.7N 106.6W WEAK
12UTC 17.07.2021 16.1N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.07.2021 17.0N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.07.2021 17.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.07.2021 18.2N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.07.2021 18.9N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.07.2021 19.0N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2021 19.2N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141601

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 141450
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Recent satellite data indicate that the tropical cyclone has
continued to organize this morning. An AMSR2 microwave pass around
0900 UTC revealed a well-defined banding feature that wrapped more
than half-way around the center and early-light visible images show
a developing CDO with the center located beneath the eastern portion
of the cold cloud tops. Based on Dvorak T-numbers of 3.0 and 2.5
from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity was
increased to 40 kt on a Tropical Cyclone Update issued at 1315 UTC.
With the continued increase in organization, the advisory intensity
has been raised to 45 kt.

Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical
wind shear. Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it
seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the
next couple of days. The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air
that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively
small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the
intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is
not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities
are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady
strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24
hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the
guidance.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm
west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that
time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected
to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in
forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period.
The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and
the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid. The guidance
envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and
the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 14.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 141446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...FELICIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 114.1 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through Thursday. A turn toward the west is expected by Thursday
night, and a west or west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely and
Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 141445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ61 KNHC 141313
TCUEP1

Tropical Storm Felicia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
715 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the depression has
strengthened to Tropical Storm Felicia. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The 900 AM
MDT (1500 UTC) advisory will reflect this change and provide an
updated intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 715 AM AST...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 113.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 140835
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better
organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In
addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has
become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are
initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is
set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the
next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease
in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a
mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens
the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the
guidance envelope close to the consensus models.

The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical
wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the
system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity
guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak
intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity
forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast
peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 140834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 112.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed through Thursday night. A turn toward the west is expected
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
to be near hurricane strength by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 140834
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021
0900 UTC WED JUL 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 112.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>