Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CEMPAKA-21
in China

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241500 UTC, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) HAS
WEAKENED INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.



NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION
TAKES PLACE.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 241200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN TURN EASTWARDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 45 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 241045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN TURN EASTWARDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 45 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (106.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN TURN EASTWARDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN TURN EASTWARDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 240145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 240000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN TURN EASTWARDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 232245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 232100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 252100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 231200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210723130829
2021072312 10W CEMPAKA 021 03 190 07 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 200N 1073E 020
T012 191N 1072E 020
T024 186N 1079E 015
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.1N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.6N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 107.3E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
99 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 7 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 228N1089E 25
1021072206 226N1083E 25
1021072212 222N1080E 25
1021072218 217N1078E 25
1021072300 212N1077E 25
1021072306 207N1074E 25
1021072312 200N1073E 20
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.1N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.6N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 107.3E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99
NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY AND A 231132Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF BACH LONG VI (48839), VIETNAM. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM BACH LONG VI HAVE SWITCHED FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM INDICATE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
REMNANT DISTURBANCE OVER WATER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE WITH PERSISTENT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30
KNOTS EXPECTED TO HINDER REGENERATION. THE REMNANTS OF 10W SHOULD
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 7 FEET.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 231045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 230745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210723071236
2021072306 10W CEMPAKA 020 02 190 05 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 207N 1076E 025
T012 199N 1074E 025
T024 191N 1076E 025
T036 188N 1085E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.9N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.1N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.8N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 107.6E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
97 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 228N1089E 25
1021072206 226N1083E 25
1021072212 222N1080E 25
1021072218 217N1078E 25
1021072300 212N1077E 25
1021072306 207N1076E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.9N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.1N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.8N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 107.6E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
97 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z
AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 230445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210723011825
2021072300 10W CEMPAKA 019 02 180 06 SATL RADR SYNP XTRP 060
T000 208N 1074E 025
T012 199N 1073E 025
T024 191N 1073E 025
T036 184N 1079E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.9N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.1N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.4N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 107.4E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
85 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 228N1089E 25
1021072206 226N1083E 25
1021072212 221N1079E 25
1021072218 214N1074E 25
1021072300 208N1074E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.9N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.1N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.4N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 107.4E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
85 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 230145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 230000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 222245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 222100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210722192524
2021072218 10W CEMPAKA 018 02 215 08 SATL SYNP XTRP 060
T000 214N 1074E 025
T012 205N 1071E 025
T024 197N 1070E 025
T036 189N 1075E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.5N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.7N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 107.3E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
382 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 228N1089E 25
1021072206 226N1083E 25
1021072212 221N1079E 25
1021072218 214N1074E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.5N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.7N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 107.3E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
382 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z
AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210722125652
2021072212 10W CEMPAKA 017 02 215 06 SATL RADR 060
T000 221N 1079E 025
T012 212N 1075E 025
T024 204N 1072E 030
T036 194N 1073E 025
T048 188N 1082E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.4N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 107.8E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 228N1089E 25
1021072206 226N1083E 25
1021072212 221N1079E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.1N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.4N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.8N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 107.8E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210722072652
2021072206 10W CEMPAKA 016 02 250 06 SATL RADR SYNP 060
T000 226N 1083E 025
T012 218N 1075E 025
T024 207N 1070E 025
T036 194N 1073E 030
T048 189N 1086E 030
T072 193N 1108E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.6N 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.8N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.3N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 108.1E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER
UPDATES.//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 228N1089E 25
1021072206 226N1083E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 22.6N 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.8N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.3N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 108.1E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
165 NM NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210722010814
2021072200 10W CEMPAKA 015 02 240 04 SATL SYNP XTRP 060
T000 226N 1091E 025
T012 221N 1084E 025
T024 214N 1081E 025
T036 202N 1081E 030
T048 196N 1090E 035 R034 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 193N 1109E 030
T096 199N 1127E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 109.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 109.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.1N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.4N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.2N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.6N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.9N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 108.9E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
283 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
1021072200 226N1091E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 109.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 109.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.1N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.4N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.2N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.6N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.9N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 108.9E.
22JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
283 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 22N 109E
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 22N 109E
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 22.3N 109.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 21.6N 107.0E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 22.3N 109.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 21.6N 107.0E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210721190303
2021072118 10W CEMPAKA 014 02 290 10 SATL SYNP 060
T000 228N 1095E 025
T012 226N 1087E 025
T024 219N 1081E 025
T036 211N 1078E 030
T048 200N 1083E 035 R034 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 195N 1118E 030
T096 205N 1143E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 109.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 109.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.6N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.9N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.0N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.5N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.5N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 109.3E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
262 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
1021072118 228N1095E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 109.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 109.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.6N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.9N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.0N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.5N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.5N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 109.3E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
262 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 109.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 22.5N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 22.1N 106.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 22.5N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 22.1N 106.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 998 HPA
AT 22.5N 109.4E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 22.1N 106.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 22.5N 109.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 22.1N 107.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 22.5N 109.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 22.1N 107.1E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 109.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND
THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210721131941
2021072112 10W CEMPAKA 013 02 315 05 SATL RADR 040
T000 225N 1105E 025
T012 225N 1096E 025
T024 220N 1090E 025
T036 213N 1083E 030
T048 204N 1083E 035 R034 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 194N 1093E 035 R034 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 198N 1129E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.5N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.3N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.4N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.8N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 110.3E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
206 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 221N1113E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
1021072112 225N1105E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.5N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.3N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.4N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.4N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.8N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 110.3E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
206 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 22.5N 109.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 22.1N 107.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 22.5N 109.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 22.1N 107.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 998 HPA
AT 22.5N 109.5E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 22.1N 107.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 22.5N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 22.6N 108.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 22.5N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 22.6N 108.3E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 22.1N, 110.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND
THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210721072729
2021072106 10W CEMPAKA 012 02 280 06 SATL RADR 040
T000 221N 1109E 025
T012 223N 1101E 025
T024 221N 1091E 025
T036 215N 1085E 030
T048 207N 1083E 035 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 191N 1096E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 194N 1125E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.1N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.4N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 110.7E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
184 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072018 218N1116E 55
1021072100 220N1115E 35
1021072106 221N1109E 25
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.3N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 22.1N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.1N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.4N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 110.7E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
184 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 22.1N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 22.6N 108.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 22.1N 110.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 22.6N 108.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 998 HPA
AT 22.1N 110.4E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 22.6N 108.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 22.0N 110.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 22.7N 108.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 22.0N 110.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 22.7N 108.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 110.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210721011309
2021072100 10W CEMPAKA 011 02 295 05 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 219N 1109E 035
T012 222N 1102E 030
T024 222N 1093E 025
T036 220N 1085E 025
T048 212N 1082E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 193N 1088E 040 R034 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 196N 1112E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 203N 1132E 030
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.2N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.3N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.6N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 110.7E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 217N1114E 55
1021072018 217N1114E 55
1021072100 219N1109E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.2N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.2N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.3N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.6N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 110.7E.
21JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z
AND 220300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 210145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 210000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N) ONE ONE
ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 45 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 21.9N 110.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 22.8N 108.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 21.9N 110.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 22.8N 108.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 996 HPA
AT 21.9N 110.8E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 22.8N 108.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 992 HPA
AT 21.8N 111.1E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 22.8N 109.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 21.8N 111.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 22.8N 109.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 21.8N 111.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 22.8N 109.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 21.8N, 111.2E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A CDO
PATTERN.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210720193407
2021072018 10W CEMPAKA 010 02 270 05 SATL SYNP XTRP 060
T000 217N 1114E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 220N 1106E 040
T024 221N 1095E 030
T036 216N 1087E 025
T048 207N 1085E 030
T072 191N 1100E 035
T096 196N 1139E 030
T120 215N 1188E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.0N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.6N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.1N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.6N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 111.2E.
20JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072006 215N1122E 80
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072012 217N1119E 75
1021072018 217N1114E 55
1021072018 217N1114E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 010
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.0N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.6N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.1N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.6N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 111.2E.
20JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z
AND 212100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 201945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 201800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8
N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC
TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (108.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 21.8N 111.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 22.8N 109.8E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 21.8N 111.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 22.8N 109.8E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 992 HPA
AT 21.8N 111.2E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 22.8N 109.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 201645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 201500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8
N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 21.8N 111.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 22.4N 109.8E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 990 HPA
AT 21.8N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 22.4N 109.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 21.8N 111.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 22.4N 109.8E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210720130533
2021072012 10W CEMPAKA 009 02 315 04 SATL RADR 020
T000 217N 1120E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 220N 1114E 045 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 223N 1104E 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 221N 1093E 030
T048 214N 1085E 030
T072 194N 1096E 035 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 190N 1130E 035 R034 030 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 211N 1180E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.0N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.3N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.1N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.4N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.4N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.0N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 111.9E.
20JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 214N1123E 70
1021072006 214N1123E 70
1021072006 214N1123E 70
1021072012 217N1120E 75
1021072012 217N1120E 75
1021072012 217N1120E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.0N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.3N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.1N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.4N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.4N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.0N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 111.9E.
20JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 112.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 21.8N 112.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 22.4N 110.2E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 21.8N 112.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 22.4N 110.2E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 990 HPA
AT 21.8N 112.1E SOUTH CHINA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 22.4N 110.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 201045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 200900 UTC, TYPHOON CEMPAKA (2107) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT
THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 990 HPA
AT 21.6N 112.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 22.0N 110.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 21.6N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 22.0N 110.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220600UTC 21.6N 108.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 21.6N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 22.0N 110.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220600UTC 21.6N 108.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210720074233
2021072006 10W CEMPAKA 008 02 315 01 SATL RADR 030
T000 214N 1123E 070 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 218N 1117E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 221N 1108E 040 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 222N 1097E 030
T048 217N 1089E 030
T072 196N 1088E 035 R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 181N 1117E 035 R034 030 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 200N 1172E 035 R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.1N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.2N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.7N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.6N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.1N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 112.1E.
20JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072006 214N1123E 70
1021072006 214N1123E 70
1021072006 214N1123E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 21.4N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.1N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.2N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.7N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.6N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.1N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 112.1E.
20JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 112.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 200745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 200600 UTC, TYPHOON CEMPAKA (2107) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT
FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 21.5N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 22.1N 110.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220600UTC 21.6N 108.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 21.5N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 22.1N 110.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220600UTC 21.6N 108.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 990 HPA
AT 21.5N 112.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 22.1N 110.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 21.6N 108.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 200445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 200300 UTC, TYPHOON CEMPAKA (2107) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT
FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 21.4N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 21.9N 111.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220000UTC 21.9N 109.3E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 992 HPA
AT 21.4N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 21.9N 111.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 21.4N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 21.9N 111.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 220000UTC 21.9N 109.3E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 112.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210720011311
2021072000 10W CEMPAKA 007 02 315 01 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 213N 1124E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 216N 1121E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 218N 1115E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 219N 1106E 030
T048 215N 1099E 030
T072 199N 1103E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 190N 1127E 035 R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 210N 1171E 040 R034 180 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.6N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.8N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.9N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.5N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.0N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 112.3E.
20JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NMWEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
1021072000 213N1124E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.6N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.8N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.9N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.5N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.0N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 112.3E.
20JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 200145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 200000 UTC, TYPHOON CEMPAKA (2107) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE TWO
POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 21.3N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 21.9N 111.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220000UTC 21.9N 109.3E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 21.3N 112.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 21.9N 111.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 220000UTC 21.9N 109.3E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 21.3N 112.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 21.9N 111.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 21.9N 109.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 192245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 192100 UTC, TYPHOON CEMPAKA (2107) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT
FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 212100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 222100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 232100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 242100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 21.2N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 21.9N 111.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211800UTC 21.9N 110.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 21.2N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 21.9N 111.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211800UTC 21.9N 110.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210719204852
2021071918 10W CEMPAKA 006 02 300 02 SATL 060
T000 212N 1125E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 215N 1122E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 219N 1117E 050
T036 220N 1109E 040
T048 220N 1101E 030
T072 205N 1094E 035 R034 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 189N 1117E 035 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 204N 1168E 040 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 006
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.9N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.0N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.9N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.4N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 112.4E.
19JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 207N1133E 40
1021071900 209N1131E 45
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071906 210N1129E 50
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071912 211N1127E 55
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
1021071918 212N1125E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.9N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 22.0N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.9N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.4N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 112.4E.
19JUL21. TYPHOON 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 112.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 21.2N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 21.8N 111.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 211800UTC 21.9N 110.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 21.2N 112.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 21.8N 111.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 211800UTC 21.9N 110.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 994 HPA
AT 21.2N 112.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 21.8N 111.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 21.9N 110.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 191645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 191500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (22.0 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 231500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 241500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 21.2N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 21.7N 112.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 211200UTC 22.0N 110.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 221200UTC 22.0N 109.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 996 HPA
AT 21.2N 112.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 21.7N 112.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 21.2N 112.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 21.7N 112.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 211200UTC 22.0N 110.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 221200UTC 22.0N 109.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 112.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210719125515
2021071912 10W CEMPAKA 005 02 305 03 SATL RADR 030
T000 212N 1127E 055 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 215N 1123E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 217N 1118E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 218N 1112E 045
T048 216N 1105E 035
T072 208N 1100E 025
T096 197N 1116E 030
T120 200N 1141E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 112.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 112.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.5N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.7N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.8N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.6N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.8N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.7N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.0N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 112.6E.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z
AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 208N1133E 35
1021071900 209N1132E 45
1021071906 210N1130E 50
1021071906 210N1130E 50
1021071912 212N1127E 55
1021071912 212N1127E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 112.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 112.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.5N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.7N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.8N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.6N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.8N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.7N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.0N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 112.6E.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z
AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 21.2N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 21.6N 112.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 211200UTC 22.0N 110.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 221200UTC 22.0N 109.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 21.2N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 21.6N 112.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 211200UTC 22.0N 110.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 221200UTC 22.0N 109.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 996 HPA
AT 21.2N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 21.6N 112.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 22.0N 110.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 22.0N 109.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 191045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190900 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (111.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 21.2N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 21.7N 112.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210600UTC 22.1N 110.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220600UTC 22.1N 109.7E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 996 HPA
AT 21.2N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 21.7N 112.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 21.2N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 21.7N 112.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210600UTC 22.1N 110.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220600UTC 22.1N 109.7E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210719070857
2021071906 10W CEMPAKA 004 02 300 02 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 210N 1130E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 214N 1126E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 216N 1122E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 218N 1116E 045 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 218N 1110E 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 213N 1103E 025
T096 204N 1108E 030
T120 201N 1131E 035 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.4N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.6N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.3N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.4N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 112.9E.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA)
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 208N1133E 35
1021071900 209N1132E 45
1021071906 210N1130E 50
1021071906 210N1130E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.4N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.6N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.8N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.3N 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.4N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 112.9E.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 190600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z,
200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 112.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 190745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190600 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 21.0N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 21.7N 112.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210600UTC 22.1N 110.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220600UTC 22.1N 109.7E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 21.0N 112.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 21.7N 112.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210600UTC 22.1N 110.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220600UTC 22.1N 109.7E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) 996 HPA
AT 21.0N 112.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 21.7N 112.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 22.1N 110.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 22.1N 109.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 190445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190300 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM CEMPAKA (2107) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (21.9 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 240300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2107 CEMPAKA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190300UTC 21.0N 112.8E
MOVEMENT W 8KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 191500UTC 21.2N 112.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 200300UTC 21.3N 112.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 201500UTC 21.5N 112.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 210300UTC 21.6N 112.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 220300UTC 21.7N 111.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 21.0N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 21.7N 112.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 210000UTC 21.9N 111.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 21.0N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 21.7N 112.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 210000UTC 21.9N 111.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210719021252
2021071900 10W CEMPAKA 003 02 300 02 SATL 030
T000 209N 1131E 045 R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 213N 1127E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 216N 1124E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 219N 1118E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 219N 1112E 035
T072 216N 1102E 025
T096 210N 1100E 025
T120 203N 1115E 035 R034 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.3N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.6N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.9N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.9N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.6N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.3N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 113.0E.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 208N1133E 35
1021071900 209N1131E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.3N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.6N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.9N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.9N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.6N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.3N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 113.0E.
19JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (CEMPAKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104
NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 21.0N, 113.7E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(CEMPAKA) STATUS. TS CEMPAKA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 113.1E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 21.0N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 21.6N 112.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210000UTC 21.9N 111.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 21.0N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 21.6N 112.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210000UTC 21.9N 111.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220000UTC 22.0N 110.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2107 CEMPAKA (2107) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 21.0N 113.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 21.6N 112.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 21.9N 111.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 22.0N 110.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10W NWP 210718201836
2021071818 10W TEN 002 02 295 05 SATL 040
T000 208N 1132E 035 R034 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 210N 1128E 040 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 213N 1124E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 215N 1120E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 218N 1114E 045
T072 218N 1106E 035
T096 214N 1101E 030
T120 205N 1110E 035 R034 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.3N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.8N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.5N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 113.1E.
18JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1021071706 190N1156E 15
1021071712 193N1155E 15
1021071718 196N1153E 15
1021071800 200N1151E 20
1021071806 204N1144E 25
1021071812 206N1137E 30
1021071818 208N1132E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.0N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 21.3N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.5N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.8N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.8N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.4N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.5N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 113.1E.
18JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>