Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NEPARTAK-21
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 40.9N 138.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 40.9N 138.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 41.4N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 41.3N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 41.0N 138.0E.
28JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
127 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 11W REMAINS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. 11W HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER
AFTER QUICKLY TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN HONSHU. HOWEVER THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION WAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SERIES OF SCATTEROMETER PASSES NEAR THE
280900Z HOUR, WHICH CONFIRMED A SMALL AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW, INCREASING
NORTHERLY VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, WILL SERVE TO
DISSIPATE 11W OVER THE NORTHERN SEA OF JAPAN. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 40.2N 140.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 40.2N 140.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 41.0N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 41.1N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 41.0N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 40.4N 139.8E.
28JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 43 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME LOW FROM 2108 NEPARTAK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280600UTC 40.0N 139.5E
MOVEMENT W 20KT
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 40N 139E
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 998HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 40N 139E
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 998HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 40.0N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 40.6N 137.9E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 290300UTC 40.6N 136.7E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 40.0N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 40.6N 136.7E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 019
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 39.1N 141.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 39.1N 141.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 40.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 40.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 40.7N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 39.5N 141.0E.
28JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 39.1N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED
FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 280000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2108 NEPARTAK
ANALYSIS
POSITION 280000UTC 39.1N 141.3E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 281200UTC 40.4N 138.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 39.1N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 40.6N 138.4E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 290000UTC 40.5N 137.1E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 39.1N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 40.5N 137.1E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 994 HPA
AT 39.1N 141.4E EASTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 40.6N 138.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 40.5N 137.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 38.6N 141.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 40.3N 139.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 282100UTC 40.7N 137.4E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 38.6N 141.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 40.7N 137.4E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 018
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 37.8N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 39.5N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 40.3N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 40.6N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 141.6E.
27JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND
282100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 37.8N, 142.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE EASTSIDE OF THE CENTER
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 37.8N 142.2E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280600UTC 40.2N 139.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 281800UTC 40.6N 137.5E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 37.8N 142.2E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 40.6N 137.5E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 37.8N 142.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 40.2N 139.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 40.6N 137.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 37.0N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 39.3N 140.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 281500UTC 40.7N 138.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 37.0N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 40.7N 138.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 36.4N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.4N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 38.2N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 39.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 40.1N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 40.3N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 36.8N 141.9E.
27JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 36.6N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE EASTSIDE OF THE CENTER
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 36.6N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 38.9N 141.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 281200UTC 40.7N 138.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 36.6N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 40.7N 138.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 990 HPA
AT 36.6N 142.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 38.9N 141.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 40.7N 138.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 36.0N 142.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 38.3N 141.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 280900UTC 40.4N 138.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 290600UTC 40.8N 136.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 36.0N 142.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 40.4N 138.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 290600UTC 40.8N 136.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 35.8N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.8N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 37.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 39.6N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 40.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 40.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 40.6N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 36.3N 142.1E.
27JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 35.7N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE EASTSIDE OF THE CENTER
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 35.7N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 271800UTC 37.8N 142.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 280600UTC 40.3N 139.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 290600UTC 40.8N 136.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 35.7N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 40.3N 139.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 290600UTC 40.8N 136.8E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 990 HPA
AT 35.7N 142.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 37.8N 142.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 40.3N 139.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 40.8N 136.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 35.2N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 271500UTC 37.5N 142.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 280300UTC 39.9N 140.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 290000UTC 40.7N 136.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 35.2N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 39.9N 140.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 290000UTC 40.7N 136.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 34.9N 142.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.9N 142.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 36.8N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 38.9N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 40.3N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 40.6N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 41.1N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 142.3E.
27JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z
AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (IN-FA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 34.9N, 142.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE NORTHEASTSIDE OF THE
CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 34.9N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 271200UTC 36.8N 142.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 280000UTC 39.1N 140.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 290000UTC 40.7N 136.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 34.9N 142.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 39.1N 140.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 290000UTC 40.7N 136.7E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 990 HPA
AT 34.9N 142.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 36.8N 142.3E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 39.1N 140.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 40.7N 136.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 34.5N 142.8E POOR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270900UTC 36.4N 142.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 272100UTC 38.7N 140.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 281800UTC 40.8N 137.1E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 34.5N 142.8E POOR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 38.7N 140.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 281800UTC 40.8N 137.1E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 014 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 014 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 34.6N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 36.0N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 38.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 40.0N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 40.5N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 41.1N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 35.0N 142.6E.
26JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 261800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (IN-FA)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 34.3N, 142.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 34.3N 142.9E POOR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270600UTC 35.9N 142.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 271800UTC 38.1N 141.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 281800UTC 40.8N 137.1E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 34.3N 142.9E POOR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 38.1N 141.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 281800UTC 40.8N 137.1E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 990 HPA
AT 34.3N 142.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 35.9N 142.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 38.1N 141.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 40.8N 137.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 34.8N 143.2E POOR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270300UTC 35.7N 142.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 271500UTC 37.8N 141.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 281200UTC 40.6N 138.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 34.8N 143.2E POOR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 37.8N 141.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 281200UTC 40.6N 138.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 35.2N 144.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 144.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 35.9N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 38.0N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 39.9N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 40.7N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 41.2N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 42.3N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 144.1E.
26JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 35.1N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 35.1N 144.1E POOR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 270000UTC 35.3N 142.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 271200UTC 37.3N 141.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 281200UTC 40.6N 138.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 35.1N 144.1E POOR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 37.3N 141.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 281200UTC 40.6N 138.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 35.1N 144.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 35.3N 142.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.3N 141.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 40.6N 138.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 35.1N 145.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 262100UTC 35.3N 142.8E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 270900UTC 36.7N 141.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 280600UTC 40.5N 139.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 35.1N 145.1E POOR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 36.7N 141.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 280600UTC 40.5N 139.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 34.6N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.6N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 35.5N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 36.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 38.6N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 40.2N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 40.9N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 41.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 34.8N 146.1E.
26JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 34.8N, 147.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 34.8N 147.0E POOR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 261800UTC 35.0N 143.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 270600UTC 36.2N 142.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280600UTC 40.5N 139.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 34.8N 147.0E POOR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 36.2N 142.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280600UTC 40.5N 139.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 34.8N 147.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 35.0N 143.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 36.2N 142.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 40.5N 139.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 33.9N 147.9E POOR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 261500UTC 35.3N 143.3E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 270300UTC 36.3N 141.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 280000UTC 39.4N 139.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 33.9N 147.9E POOR
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 36.3N 141.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 280000UTC 39.4N 139.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 148.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 33.5N 149.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 149.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 35.1N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 36.2N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 37.4N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 38.9N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 40.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 42.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 149.1E.
26JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 511 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 33.6N 148.4E POOR
MOVE NNW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 35.1N 143.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE WNW 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 270000UTC 35.9N 142.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280000UTC 39.4N 139.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 33.6N 148.4E POOR
MOVE NNW 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 35.9N 142.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 280000UTC 39.4N 139.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 33.6N 148.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 35.1N 143.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 35.9N 142.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 39.4N 139.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 32.5N 149.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260900UTC 35.8N 146.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 262100UTC 36.8N 142.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 32.5N 149.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 36.8N 142.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 32.9N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.9N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 35.1N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 36.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 37.5N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 38.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 40.9N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 41.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 42.8N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 33.4N 149.7E.
25JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 31.5N 149.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260600UTC 35.5N 147.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 261800UTC 36.5N 143.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 31.5N 149.7E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 36.5N 143.3E 65NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 31.5N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 35.5N 147.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 36.5N 143.3E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 38.3N 138.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 31.0N 150.0E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 34.0N 147.5E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 261500UTC 35.8N 144.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 271200UTC 37.3N 140.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 281200UTC 39.9N 137.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 31.0N 150.0E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 35.8N 144.4E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 271200UTC 37.3N 140.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 281200UTC 39.9N 137.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 009 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 31.8N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.8N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 34.3N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 36.1N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 37.3N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 38.6N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 40.4N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 42.0N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 42.7N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 150.1E.
25JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 579
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 30.3N 150.4E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 33.4N 148.4E 45NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 261200UTC 35.6N 145.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 271200UTC 37.3N 140.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 281200UTC 39.9N 137.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 30.3N 150.4E POOR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 35.6N 145.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 271200UTC 37.3N 140.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 281200UTC 39.9N 137.2E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 30.3N 150.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 33.4N 148.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 35.6N 145.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 37.3N 140.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 39.9N 137.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 30.0N 150.7E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 32.3N 148.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 260900UTC 34.8N 145.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270600UTC 36.7N 141.0E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 280600UTC 39.6N 136.7E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 30.0N 150.7E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 34.8N 145.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270600UTC 36.7N 141.0E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 280600UTC 39.6N 136.7E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 008A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 008A RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 31.2N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 120 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
435 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.2N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.3N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 35.8N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 37.0N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 38.1N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 40.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 41.4N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 42.3N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7N 150.3E.
25JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION TO THE
CENTROID OF THE MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
DATA.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 29.9N, 150.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 29.9N 150.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 31.6N 149.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 260600UTC 34.5N 146.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 270600UTC 36.7N 141.0E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 280600UTC 39.6N 136.7E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 29.9N 150.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 34.5N 146.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 270600UTC 36.7N 141.0E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 280600UTC 39.6N 136.7E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 992 HPA
AT 29.9N 150.8E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.6N 149.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 34.5N 146.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 36.7N 141.0E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 39.6N 136.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 29.8N 150.5E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 31.3N 149.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 260300UTC 33.7N 146.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270000UTC 35.6N 141.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 280000UTC 39.3N 137.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 290000UTC 40.1N 135.1E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 29.8N 150.5E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 375NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 33.7N 146.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 270000UTC 35.6N 141.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 280000UTC 39.3N 137.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 28.8N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.0N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.6N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.1N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 35.6N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 38.1N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 39.6N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 40.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 149.7E.
25JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 648 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 29.2N, 150.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 29.2N 150.5E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 30.8N 149.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 260000UTC 33.1N 147.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 270000UTC 35.6N 141.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 280000UTC 39.3N 137.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 290000UTC 40.1N 135.1E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 29.2N 150.5E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 33.1N 147.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 270000UTC 35.6N 141.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 280000UTC 39.3N 137.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 994 HPA
AT 29.2N 150.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 30.8N 149.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 33.1N 147.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 35.6N 141.8E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 39.3N 137.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 40.1N 135.1E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 28.7N 150.6E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 30.4N 149.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 252100UTC 32.5N 147.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 261800UTC 34.8N 142.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 281800UTC 39.8N 135.1E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 28.7N 150.6E POOR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 32.5N 147.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 261800UTC 34.8N 142.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.0N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.9N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.5N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 35.0N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 36.5N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 38.0N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 39.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 150.3E.
24JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 150.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 28.4N 150.6E POOR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 30.2N 149.7E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 251800UTC 32.3N 147.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261800UTC 34.8N 142.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 281800UTC 39.8N 135.1E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 28.4N 150.6E POOR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 32.3N 147.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261800UTC 34.8N 142.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271800UTC 38.3N 138.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 994 HPA
AT 28.4N 150.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 30.2N 149.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 32.3N 147.7E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 34.8N 142.8E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 38.3N 138.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 39.8N 135.1E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 28.1N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250300UTC 29.7N 150.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 251500UTC 31.9N 148.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 261200UTC 33.7N 144.3E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 271200UTC 36.7N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 281200UTC 39.5N 136.3E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 28.1N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 31.9N 148.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 261200UTC 33.7N 144.3E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 271200UTC 36.7N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 27.3N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.0N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 33.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.6N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 37.8N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 40.1N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 41.2N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 150.3E.
24JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273
NM NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 150.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 27.6N 150.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250000UTC 29.3N 150.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 251200UTC 31.5N 149.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261200UTC 33.7N 144.3E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271200UTC 36.7N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 281200UTC 39.5N 136.3E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 27.6N 150.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 31.5N 149.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 261200UTC 33.7N 144.3E 105NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 271200UTC 36.7N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 996 HPA
AT 27.6N 150.6E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 29.3N 150.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 31.5N 149.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 33.7N 144.3E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 36.7N 141.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 39.5N 136.3E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 27.0N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 30.1N 149.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260600UTC 33.3N 144.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 270600UTC 36.5N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 280600UTC 39.3N 136.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 27.0N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 30.1N 149.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260600UTC 33.3N 144.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 270600UTC 36.5N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.2N 150.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 150.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.7N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.6N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.9N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 33.7N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 36.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 39.4N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 40.7N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6N 150.1E.
24JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 150.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 26.1N 150.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 29.6N 149.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260600UTC 33.3N 144.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270600UTC 36.5N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 280600UTC 39.3N 136.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 26.1N 150.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 29.6N 149.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260600UTC 33.3N 144.8E 105NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270600UTC 36.5N 141.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 996 HPA
AT 26.1N 150.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 29.6N 149.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 33.3N 144.8E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 36.5N 141.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 39.3N 136.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 25.7N 149.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 29.0N 149.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260000UTC 32.4N 146.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 270000UTC 34.6N 141.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 280000UTC 37.7N 137.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 290000UTC 39.1N 135.0E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 25.7N 149.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 29.0N 149.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 260000UTC 32.4N 146.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 270000UTC 34.6N 141.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 25.4N, 149.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.2N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.0N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 31.9N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 35.2N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 37.9N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 149.6E.
24JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799
NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10W (CEMPAKA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 25.4N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 28.5N 150.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260000UTC 32.4N 146.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270000UTC 34.6N 141.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 280000UTC 37.7N 137.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 290000UTC 39.1N 135.0E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 25.4N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 28.5N 150.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 260000UTC 32.4N 146.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 270000UTC 34.6N 141.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 998 HPA
AT 25.4N 149.7E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 28.5N 150.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 32.4N 146.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 34.6N 141.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 37.7N 137.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 39.1N 135.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 25.2N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 27.3N 150.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 251800UTC 31.9N 148.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 261800UTC 34.3N 143.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 271800UTC 37.7N 138.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 281800UTC 39.9N 134.9E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 25.2N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 27.3N 150.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 251800UTC 31.9N 148.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 261800UTC 34.3N 143.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 24.7N 149.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 149.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.0N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.9N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.0N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.7N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 35.0N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 37.9N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 39.9N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 149.5E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253
NM WEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 25.1N, 149.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 25.1N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 27.6N 150.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 251800UTC 31.9N 148.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 261800UTC 34.3N 143.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 271800UTC 37.7N 138.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 281800UTC 39.9N 134.9E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 25.1N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 27.6N 150.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 251800UTC 31.9N 148.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 261800UTC 34.3N 143.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) 998 HPA
AT 25.1N 149.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 27.6N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 31.9N 148.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 34.3N 143.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 37.7N 138.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 39.9N 134.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 24.2N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 27.6N 149.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 251200UTC 31.7N 149.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 35.5N 143.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 271200UTC 38.6N 140.4E 260NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 281200UTC 40.7N 136.1E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 24.2N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 27.6N 149.8E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 251200UTC 31.7N 149.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 35.5N 143.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 24.0N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.5N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.2N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.7N 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 33.9N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 36.9N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 39.4N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 148.8E.
23JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 821 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 23.4N, 148.5E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NEPARTAK) STATUS. TS NEPARTAK IS LOCATED AT 23.9N, 148.3E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE EASTSIDE OF
THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 23.9N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 27.5N 150.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 251200UTC 31.7N 149.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 261200UTC 35.5N 143.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 271200UTC 38.6N 140.4E 260NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 281200UTC 40.7N 136.1E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 23.9N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 270NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 27.5N 150.1E 65NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 251200UTC 31.7N 149.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 261200UTC 35.5N 143.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2108 NEPARTAK (2108) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 23.9N 148.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 27.5N 150.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 31.7N 149.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 35.5N 143.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 38.6N 140.4E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 40.7N 136.1E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=