Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HILDA-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 22.9N 133.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 133.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.6N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.1N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 134.3W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1057 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z
IS 11 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 061435
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021

Hilda has been devoid of organized deep convection for at least 12
hours, and since the cyclone is moving over sub-23C sea surface
temperatures, regeneration of deep convection is unlikely.
Therefore, Hilda is designated as a 25 kt post-tropical remnant
low, and this is the last advisory from National Hurricane Center.
The low should continue to move further into a dry and stable air
mass and over even cooler waters. Consequently, weakening is
forecast and the remnant low of Hilda should open up into a trough
of low pressure over the weekend.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/9
kt, and this general heading, within the low-level flow, is
forecast to continue until dissipation.

For additional information on Hilda please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 23.1N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 061434
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021

...HILDA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 134.1W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2475 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda
was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 134.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 10
mph (17 km/h) and this slightly slower motion is expected to
continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected and the remnant
low is forecast to open up into a trough of low pressure on
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Hilda. For additional information on this system please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the
web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 061433
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 134.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 134.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HILDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.4N 132.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4N 132.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.6N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.1N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 133.4W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1037 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060839
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021

Hilda has been reduced to a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds
overnight with no organized deep convection. There has not been any
recent scatterometer data to aid determining Hilda's intensity, but
a blend of recent subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimates support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. If Hilda
fails to redevelop organized deep convection soon, an unlikely
prospect since sea-surface temperatures under the depression are now
around 22 C, the cyclone should soon become a remnant low, possibly
as early as later this morning. Complete dissipation of the remnant
low is expected by this weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

The tropical depression is currently moving west-northwest at
300/10 kt. This heading is expected to continue until dissipation
as the system moves along the southern periphery of a low-level
ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an
update from the previous one, though is a bit slower, following the
tightly clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.6N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 06 2021

...HILDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 133.3W
ABOUT 1490 MI...2395 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda
was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 133.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so. Hilda is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and
dissipate on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060836
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 133.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 133.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 132.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 133.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 026
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 131.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 131.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.8N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.5N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.0N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 132.4W.
06AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1007 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z
AND 070400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible
satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized
convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed
winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the
satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during
the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is
maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves
over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment.
These conditions should suppress new convective development, as
suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite
imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda
degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well
east of the Hawaiian Islands.

Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected
to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading
through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a
low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly
clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to
reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

...HILDA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 132.2W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2290 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda
was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 132.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Hilda
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday and dissipate
on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 132.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 132.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 131.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 132.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
WARNING ATCG MIL 08E NEP 210805204542
2021080518 08E HILDA 025 02 300 11 SATL 020
T000 213N 1307W 030
T012 222N 1328W 025
T024 230N 1350W 025
T036 237N 1372W 020
T048 244N 1393W 015
AMP
024HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
036HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.3N 130.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 130.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.2N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.7N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.4N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 131.4W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 996 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0821072806 117N1025W 15
0821072812 117N1033W 15
0821072818 117N1041W 20
0821072900 117N1049W 25
0821072906 117N1058W 25
0821072912 117N1067W 25
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0821080212 153N1222W 70
0821080218 156N1226W 70
0821080218 156N1226W 70
0821080218 156N1226W 70
0821080300 162N1231W 65
0821080300 162N1231W 65
0821080300 162N1231W 65
0821080306 168N1237W 60
0821080306 168N1237W 60
0821080312 173N1243W 60
0821080312 173N1243W 60
0821080318 176N1248W 50
0821080318 176N1248W 50
0821080400 182N1255W 45
0821080406 186N1262W 40
0821080412 189N1270W 40
0821080418 192N1276W 40
0821080500 194N1282W 40
0821080506 200N1288W 40
0821080512 207N1297W 30
0821080518 213N1307W 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 052031
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

Stubborn Hilda refuses to go away. Convection has been pulsing since
the previous advisory with cloud tops fluctuating between -30C and
-60C in the northeastern quadrant. However, this convection hasn't
mixed higher winds downward into the boundary based on a 1634Z
ASCAT-A scatterometer pass, which showed 30-31-kt wind vectors north
of the center and outside of the convection. The initial intensity
is being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory based on the
aforementioned ASCAT surface wind data. Gradual weakening should
occur now that Hilda is firmly located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface
temperatures and will be moving into a drier and more stable air
mass. Visible satellite imagery already shows an extensive field of
cold-air stratocumulus clouds being entrained into much of the
low-level circulation. Hilda is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low tonight or early Friday, and open up into a trough by
the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. Hilda should continue on
a west-northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, being
steered by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north. The latest
NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 052030
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

...HILDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 131.2W
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 131.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or
early Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 052030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 131.2W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 131.2W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 130.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 131.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 129.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 129.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.2N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.9N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 130.4W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
986 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09E (JIMENA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 051434
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

After an earlier brief burst of thunderstorm activity northeast of
the center around 0600Z, associated convection since then has been
on a rapid decline and warming of the cloud tops which now barely
reach -30 deg C near the center. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers of
T2.5 and T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB, and an objective satellite
intensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, making Hilda a
tropical depression. Further weakening is expected now that Hilda is
located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and moving into a
drier and more stable air mass. The cyclone is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low later today and open up into a trough
by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 305/11 kt, which is faster and a
little to the right of the previous advisory motion. This is likely
due to the low- and upper-level circulations having decoupled now,
owing to the lack of significant convection. The weakening cyclone
should be steered west-northwestward for the next 48 hours by a
sprawling subtropical ridge located to the north. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies
down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.0N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 051433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 130.2W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda
was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 130.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h),
and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by late tonight or early Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 051432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.9N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.9N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.6N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.2N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 129.4W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09E (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050841
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

Hilda is maintaining a small, but shrinking area of deep
convection, which has rotated from the southeast to northern portion
of the storm's circulation. A 0405 UTC ASCAT-A and 0522 UTC ASCAT-B
pass had peak wind retrievals of 36 and 40 kt respectively, about
40 n mi northeast of Hilda's center. This scatterometer data
suggests that the storm might have been stronger than estimated
yesterday when the convection was more robust. However, given the
warming cloud tops and shrinking area of convection since that time,
the initial advisory intensity was kept at 35 kt, which still agrees
with the most recent subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Hilda is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt as the tropical
cyclone remains steered by a large subtropical ridge over the
eastern North Pacific. As the storm becomes more shallow, its
general motion should bend westward and gradually accelerate due to
the influence of a large low-level ridge centered well northward.
The latest track guidance is slightly more poleward early on, and
the NHC track forecast was nudged a bit further north, but remains a
bit south of the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). As noted
previously, the GFS model forecast remains a northern outlier, with
more interaction between Hilda and recently upgraded Jimena, and its
solution is not favored at this time.

As Hilda continues to move over increasingly cool ocean waters and
into a drier and more stable environment, the remaining deep
convection will likely dissipate at some point later today.
Additional convective bursts thereafter will become increasingly
unlikely. The latest NHC forecast expects Hilda to weaken to a
tropical depression later today and become a remnant low by
tomorrow. This solution is favored by most of the intensity
guidance. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough
by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050838
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021

...HILDA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 129.2W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 129.2 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Hilda is
forecast to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate
into a remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 128.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
WARNING ATCG MIL 08E NEP 210805030731
2021080500 08E HILDA 022 02 290 07 SATL 020
T000 194N 1282W 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 202N 1302W 030
T024 213N 1324W 030
T036 221N 1346W 025
T048 226N 1370W 020
AMP
036HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 128.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 128.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.3N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.1N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.6N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 128.9W.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
996 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z,
052200Z AND 060400Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0821072806 117N1025W 15
0821072812 117N1033W 15
0821072818 117N1041W 20
0821072900 117N1049W 25
0821072906 117N1058W 25
0821072912 117N1067W 25
0821072918 118N1075W 30
0821073000 118N1084W 30
0821073006 118N1100W 30
0821073012 117N1117W 30
0821073018 119N1130W 40
0821073100 129N1140W 40
0821073106 132N1152W 45
0821073112 136N1162W 55
0821073112 136N1162W 55
0821073118 140N1174W 60
0821073118 140N1174W 60
0821080100 142N1183W 75
0821080100 142N1183W 75
0821080100 142N1183W 75
0821080106 144N1190W 75
0821080106 144N1190W 75
0821080106 144N1190W 75
0821080112 145N1197W 75
0821080112 145N1197W 75
0821080112 145N1197W 75
0821080118 146N1204W 75
0821080118 146N1204W 75
0821080118 146N1204W 75
0821080200 148N1211W 70
0821080200 148N1211W 70
0821080200 148N1211W 70
0821080206 150N1217W 70
0821080206 150N1217W 70
0821080206 150N1217W 70
0821080212 153N1222W 70
0821080212 153N1222W 70
0821080212 153N1222W 70
0821080218 156N1226W 70
0821080218 156N1226W 70
0821080218 156N1226W 70
0821080300 162N1231W 65
0821080300 162N1231W 65
0821080300 162N1231W 65
0821080306 168N1237W 60
0821080306 168N1237W 60
0821080312 173N1243W 60
0821080312 173N1243W 60
0821080318 176N1248W 50
0821080318 176N1248W 50
0821080400 182N1255W 45
0821080406 186N1262W 40
0821080412 189N1270W 35
0821080418 192N1276W 35
0821080500 194N1282W 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

Hilda's satellite appearance has changed little over the past
several hours. Small bursts of moderate to deep convection persist
in the eastern semicircle of the system, and the low-level center is
still partially exposed to the west of the convective cloud mass.
Without any recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held
at 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with a T2.5/35 kt
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

A subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific continues to
steer Hilda west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a slight
westward turn on Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by a
low-level ridge to its north. While most of the models show limited
interaction between Hilda and TD Nine-E to its southwest, it is
worth noting that the GFS moves both Nine-E and Hilda much farther
northward than the rest of the guidance. The GFS solution is not
favored at this time, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very
similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model guidance
consensus.

Hilda is not expected to remain a tropical storm for much longer. As
sea surface temperatures decrease along its track and the cyclone
moves into a drier, more stable environment, it will become
increasingly difficult for Hilda to sustain organized convection
near its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hilda to weaken
to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a 25-kt
remnant low on Friday morning. Then, the global models agree that
the system should open into a trough and dissipate by Saturday
morning well east of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

...HILDA HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 128.7W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 128.7 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Hilda is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday
morning and degenerate into a remnant low early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 128.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 128.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 128.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 127.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 127.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.8N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.4N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 138.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 128.2W.
04AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
987 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z,
051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 042034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

Convection associated with Hilda continues to weaken and shrink in
areal coverage due to modest northwesterly vertical wind shear,
sub-25C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and entrainment of stable,
cold-air stratocumulus clouds. A 1656Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer
pass revealed two 33-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant in the
radius-of-maximum winds. Even allowing for some undersampling, this
indicates that Hilda is barely hanging on to tropical storm status,
and the initial intensity will remain at 35 kt for this advisory.

Model analyses show virtually no instability in the center of and
north of Hilda right now, and with the cyclone forecast to move over
even cooler water and into increasing westerly wind shear during the
next 12-24 hours, a rapid decrease in both the convection and
cyclone's intensity appears to be forthcoming soon. Hilda is
forecast to become a depression later tonight and a remnant low
on Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday
well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows
a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.

Hilda continues on a steady west-northwestward course or 295/08 kt.
This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday,
followed by a more westward motion on Friday and Saturday as a low-
to mid-level ridge builds to north of Hilda on days 2 and 3. The
official NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of
the guidance envelope between the tightly packed consensus track
models to the north and the ECMWF model to the south.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 042033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

...HILDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 128.0W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 128.0 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is
expected to become a tropical depression later tonight and
degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 042033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 127.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 128.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 127.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 127.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.6N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.2N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.7N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 127.6W.
04AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 984 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (IGNACIO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 041434
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

Hilda continues to weaken early this morning due to cool sea-surface
temperatures (SST) and modest northerly vertical wind shear. The
current intensity is estimated to be 35 kt based on an average of
subjective satellite classifications of T2.5/35 kt from both TAFB
and SAB, and objective estimates of 31 kt and 41 kt from UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON, respectively. Hilda is currently moving over sub-25C
SSTs with even cooler water and increasing westerly wind shear still
ahead of the cyclone. As a result of these unfavorable environmental
parameters, Hilda is forecast to weaken further, becoming a
depression later today and a remnant low by late tonight or early
Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well
to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend
of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.

Hilda has been moving west-northwestward or 295/08 kt. This
general motion should continue into Thursday. Low- to mid-level
ridging to the north of Hilda is expected to gradually build
westward over the next several days, forcing the cyclone and its
remnants more westward on Friday and Saturday. The new NHC forecast
track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and
lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.1N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 041433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

...HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 127.4W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Hilda is expected to become a tropical depression
later today and degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 041433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 128.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 130.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.7N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040847
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level
circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a
few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center.
Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to
help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity
of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory,
blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now
moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some
residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts
to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and
HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized
convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a
trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the
storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the
west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north
and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next
several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more
westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the
previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040840
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021

...HILDA WEAKENS FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 126.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 126.6 West. Hilda is now
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for with a slight increase in
forward speed by Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Hilda is forecast to become a tropical
depression by early Thursday and a remnant low by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040839
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040236
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Hilda is a weakening tropical cyclone. Its low-level center is now
exposed in visible satellite imagery, and infrared cloud top
temperatures have rapidly warmed as the system is currently not
producing any deep convection. Despite this lack of convection,
earlier scatterometer data revealed several 45-kt wind vectors in
the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The initial
intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is supported
by a blend of the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB, and the objective UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. continues to
steer Hilda northwestward at around 7 kt. As the vortex spins down
and becomes vertically shallow, Hilda is expected to turn
west-northwestward and accelerate a bit as a low-level ridge builds
westward across the eastern Pacific. The official NHC track forecast
is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the
multi-model consensus.

Hilda is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable
environment, so continued weakening is expected over the next few
days. The official NHC forecast now shows Hilda weakening to a
tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerating to a
remnant low soon thereafter. The remnant low is still expected to
open up into a trough this weekend well east-northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...HILDA CONTINUES WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 125.5W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 125.5 West. Hilda is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, with a slight increase in
forward speed expected on Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Hilda is forecast to become a tropical
depression early Thursday and a remnant low by Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 125.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 125.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 125.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 032039
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Deep convection in Hilda's central dense overcast has been weakening
today, with the low-level center still on the northern side of the
cloud mass. Satellite classifications have decreased since the last
advisory, and a partial ASCAT pass around 1700 UTC showed maximum
winds of about 45 kt. Assuming some undersampling and that the
eastern radius-of-maximum winds could have been missed, the initial
wind speed is set to 50 kt. A combination of shear, cool water
temperatures, and a more stable environment should keep Hilda on a
weakening trend throughout the forecast period. Model guidance
continues to be in very good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the previous one. Hilda is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough
this weekend well east of the Hawaiian Islands.

The storm continues moving northwestward, now a little slower at
about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over southern California
should build westward during the next few days as a mid-latitude
trough along 135W moves northward out of the area. This pattern is
expected to turn Hilda west-northwestward tomorrow and accelerate
the cyclone in that direction as it encounters stronger low- to
mid-level flow. Model guidance is a shade faster and to the left of
the last cycle, and the new NHC track forecast follows that trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 032038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...HILDA STARTING TO SUCCUMB TO COOL WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 125.0W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 125.0 West. Hilda is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is
forecast to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the
west-northwest expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Hilda is likely to become a tropical depression on
Thursday and a remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 032037
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 125.0W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 125.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 130.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 132.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2021 13.6N 132.7W WEAK
00UTC 04.08.2021 13.9N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2021 14.7N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2021 15.2N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2021 16.2N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2021 17.0N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2021 18.1N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2021 19.4N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2021 20.7N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2021 22.3N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2021 20.3N 116.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HILDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 124.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2021 17.2N 124.3W MODERATE
00UTC 04.08.2021 18.1N 125.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2021 18.9N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2021 20.0N 128.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2021 21.1N 130.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2021 22.3N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2021 23.4N 134.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031600

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 031436
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

There's been little change with the structure of Hilda overnight as
deep convection continues to be mostly south of the center due to
persistent northeasterly shear. The low-level eye feature in 37 GHz
microwave data remains on the latest passes, but it isn't very deep
because of the shear. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB/SAB, plus the UW-CIMSS SATCON, yields 60 kt as the initial wind
speed. Hilda should weaken during the next several days, first
primarily due to shear, then cool water temperatures and a more
stable environment on Wed-Fri. Model guidance is in good agreement
on this scenario, and the latest forecast is close to the previous
NHC advisory and the model consensus. Hilda should decay into a
remnant low by Friday and dissipate as a trough this weekend well
east of the Hawaii.

The initial motion estimate, 315/7 kt, is the same as the previous
advisory. Hilda is maintaining this motion as it is steered by a
mid-level ridge centered over southern California. The global
models are consistently building this ridge westward over the
eastern Pacific during the next several days as a shortwave trough
lifts out along 135W, causing Hilda to turn west-northwestward by
Thursday. The only significant forecast difference is how quickly
the cyclone moves, mostly in the latter stages, with more of the
guidance showing a faster motion, perhaps because the models are
showing a weaker Hilda being steered by the quicker low-level flow.
The new NHC prediction shows that acceleration at long-range as
well, near or just behind the latest model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.5N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 031433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...HILDA FORECAST TO LOSE STRENGTH THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 124.5W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 124.5 West. Hilda is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so with a
gradual turn to the west-northwest expected by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days,
and Hilda is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression on
Thursday and into a remnant low by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 031433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 127.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 124.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030900
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Overnight, Hilda's deep convection has continued to pulse, but
primarily in the southern semicircle of the circulation as 15-20 kt
of northeasterly vertical wind shear continues displacing this
activity downshear. A helpful ASCAT-B pass at 0602 UTC indicated the
center of Hilda was located on the northern edge of the convective
cirrus canopy, with the instrument also indicating a peak wind
retrieval of 53 kt. The most recent microwave imagery concurs with
this assessment and also indicates the earlier eyewall is no longer
well-defined. While the 0600 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt, the most recent objective Dvorak
estimate from UW-CIMSS was down to T3.5/55 kt. Given the devolving
convective structure seen on microwave, the initial intensity has
been reduced to 60 kt, leaning towards the lower intensity
estimates.

Hilda continues to move slowly northwestward, at 315/7 kt as it
remains positioned southwest of a mid-level ridge centered over
southern California. Over the next several days, this ridge is
forecast to build westward over the East Pacific as a short-wave
trough offshore of California lifts out. This synoptic pattern
should allow Hilda to gradually bend to the west-northwest and
increase its forward motion slightly over the forecast period. Hilda
will also become increasingly influenced by low-level ridging,
steering the cyclone more westward as it becomes a weak and shallow
cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch south of the
previous forecast track, blending the reliable TVCE and HCCA
consensus aids.

Northeasterly vertical wind shear, related to the remaining
convective outflow of Ignacio, is expected to keep Hilda on a
weakening trend over the next day or so. Even though this shear is
expected to subside thereafter, Hilda will also be crossing the 25
degree Celsius sea-surface temperature isotherm in 24 hours. Thus,
continued weakening is expected. The latest NHC intensity forecast
follows the HCCA consensus aid closely, showing weakening throughout
the forecast period. The tropical cyclone is now expected to
degenerate to a remnant low by Friday, when model guidance suggests
organized deep-convection will cease. The remnant low is then
expected to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of
Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 17.0N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 18.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.0N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 21.7N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 22.4N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030857
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 123.9W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 123.9 West. Hilda is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so with a
gradual turn to the west-northwest expected by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next
several days, and Hilda is forecast to weaken into a tropical
depression on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030856
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 123.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 123.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.6N 125.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.4N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.7N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.4N 136.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030236
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

Moderate northeasterly wind shear continues to take a toll on Hilda
this evening. The upper-level outflow on the northern and eastern
sides of the circulation has a sharp edge in satellite imagery.
Recent SSMIS microwave data show the structure of Hilda has changed
little since earlier today, with a weakness in the upshear portion
of the eyewall and a slight displacement of the low- and mid-level
centers. The various objective intensity estimates and subjective
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support holding the initial
intensity at 65 kt for this advisory.

Hilda is moving northwestward, or 315/6 kt, under the influence of a
subtropical ridge to its northeast. This general motion is expected
to continue through midweek, and the track guidance remains tightly
clustered during this period. As Hilda continues weakening and the
ridge builds westward, Hilda is forecast to move west-northwestward
and then westward within the low-level flow through the rest of the
period. However, a complicating factor is the potential for some
interaction with the remnants of TD Nine-E, which now have a high
chance of redevelopment during the next couple of days. The official
NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly poleward once again at
day 3 and beyond, bringing it closer to the reliable consensus aids
TVCE and HCCA and accounting for the aforementioned possibility of
some interaction between the two systems.

Moderate northeasterly shear will persist for the next day or so,
and afterwards the cooler sea-surface temperatures along Hilda's
forecast track will offset any reduction in shear over the system.
Therefore, weakening is expected during the next several days. The
official NHC intensity forecast lies slightly above the multi-model
consensus aids in the near-term, but then closely follows IVCN and
HCCA once Hilda reaches the cooler waters. The system is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low by 96 h, but this transition could
occur soon after 72 h based on some of the latest GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...HILDA STILL A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 123.3W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 123.3 West. Hilda is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Hilda is forecast to gradually weaken during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030234
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.1N 123.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 124.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 125.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 130.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 022035
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

Recent satellite images show that Hilda's cloud pattern has become
less organized, with the low-level center on the northeast edge of
the central dense overcast. Microwave data also show a less
distinct eye feature, along with a more broken eyewall. The
initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt, which is closest to the
latest CIMSS-SATCON value.

Hilda continues moving northwestward and should remain on that
heading for the next day or two while it is steered by the
subtropical ridge located near and west of Mexico. No changes were
made to the forecast during that time. After that, the ridge
builds farther to the west and a weakened Hilda should respond by
taking west-northwestward and westward turns by late week.
However, exactly when that happens is difficult to tell due to
potential interaction at long range with the remnants of former TD
9-E. A fair number of the models are showing that system
regenerating and getting closer to Hilda, which would have the
tendency to steer Hilda farther northward. While the new forecast
responds to this scenario by shifting the official track about half
a degree poleward on day 3 and beyond, a lot of the latest guidance
is even farther north.

It seems like Hilda might finally be on a steadier weakening trend
with the recent degradation noted in satellite data. With moderate
northeasterly shear and decreasing water temperatures in the path of
the cyclone, Hilda should continue to lose strength during the next
few days. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance is a little higher than
the last cycle, which doesn't feel like the correct forecast move
at this time, especially as the forecast shifts northward over
cooler waters faster. The new NHC forecast maintains the weakening
trend from the last advisory, and now ends up lower than the bulk of
the guidance. Remnant-low status is anticipated just after day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 022033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...HILDA HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 122.8W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 122.8 West. Hilda is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Hilda should gradually weaken during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 022033
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 105SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 021434
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

The satellite presentation of Hilda hasn't changed much in the past
several hours, with a round central dense overcast and perhaps a
ragged eye trying to form. The intensity estimates range from 60-77
kt, and since the hurricane's presentation is about the same as the
last advisory, the current wind speed will remain 70 kt. This is
one of those times that in situ reconnaissance data would be helpful
since there has been lots of spread in the intensity estimates for
quite some time, and Hilda is at an intensity where it is hard to
get more precise measurements.

The hurricane has finally turned northwestward and should continue
in that general direction for the next couple of days on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, with some influence from
Ignacio to the northeast. Model guidance is in decent agreement
that Hilda will turn back to the west-northwest by midweek and then
west under the restrengthened subtropical ridge. While there are
still some outlier solutions, the latest consensus guidance is near
the previous NHC forecast, so only small changes were made on this
advisory.

Hilda is maintaining good inner-core structure on the latest
microwave data despite northeasterly shear (perhaps because of a
fairly moist mid-level environment around the hurricane), so little
intensity change is forecast for today. Thereafter, the system
should move over cooler waters into a drier environment, which
should cause gradual weakening for the next several days. Very
little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, and it is
close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids throughout. Remnant-low
status is expected by 96 h, if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 15.4N 122.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 021432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...HILDA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 122.6W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 122.6 West. Hilda is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
should continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening should begin by tomorrow and continue
through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 021431
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 122.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 123.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 123.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.9N 124.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.7N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.4N 129.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020836
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

SSMIS microwave data received just after the previous advisory
indicate that Hilda's structure may have improved slightly, with a
closed mid-level eye noted in the 85-GHz channel. However, the
microwave data also showed that the low- and mid-level centers
remain offset from each other by about 15 n mi due to continued
moderate easterly shear. The initial intensity remains 70 kt, which
is a blend of the latest final-T Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Hilda has begun to turn to the right and slow down, and the initial
motion is west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 7 kt. Although the
subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north of Hilda, the
hurricane's close proximity to Tropical Depression Ten-E and the
remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to cause some
binary interaction over the next couple of days, with Hilda likely
to slow down further and turn toward the northwest later today and
continue on that heading through Wednesday. In fact, the newest
track guidance has trended to the northeast during the first 48
hours, and the updated NHC forecast has therefore been shifted a
bit to the right during that period. However, it should be noted
that the track adjustment is conservative, and does not show a
turn quite as sharp as that shown by the TVCE and HCCA consensus
aids. Low-level ridging should play a more prominent role in about
3 days, causing Hilda to turn back toward the west-northwest and
then west by the end of the forecast period. No significant track
changes were required during the day 3-5 time period.

Moderate east-northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the
next 36 hours or so, with Hilda also heading toward cooler waters
during that time. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to
commence later today, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to
the HCCA and ICON consensus aids for the next day or so. Sub-26
degree Celsius waters are likely to cause quicker weakening from 36
hours onward, and the NHC intensity forecast has been nudged
downward during that period. This new forecast is lower than the
statistical-dynamical models but not nearly as low as the latest
HCCA solution. Hilda is now forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 4,
although the HCCA scenario suggests that these transitions could
occur as much as a day earlier.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 15.3N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...HILDA HEADED FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 122.1W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.1 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later this morning and
continue through early Wednesday. A turn back to the west-northwest
is forecast later on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later today, and Hilda is
forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020835
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 121.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 125.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 128.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 132.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020236
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Hilda's satellite appearance is showing effects of easterly vertical
wind shear this evening. Recent imagery shows a sharp edge to the
upper-level outflow on the eastern side of the system. A 2130 UTC
AMSR2 microwave pass reveals that the eyewall is no longer closed,
as the inner core convection has been eroded on the eastern side of
the circulation. Microwave data also indicate the vortex has become
vertically tilted, with the mid-level center displaced about 10-15 n
mi to the west-northwest of the low-level center. Thus, the initial
intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt for this advisory, in best
agreement with the objective UW-CIMSS Dvorak estimates.

Hilda is still moving west-northwestward at 285/8 kt, to the south
of a ridge over the western U.S. and northern Mexico. A turn to the
northwest is expected on Monday as the ridge weakens, likely in
response to T.D. Ten-E located to the east-northeast of Hilda. A
northwestward motion should continue through midweek before the
ridge becomes reestablished and Hilda turns westward through the
rest of the forecast period. There is greater track uncertainty
later in the week due to possible interaction with another system
that could redevelop from the remnants of T.D. Nine-E. The official
NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous
one at 48 h and beyond based on the latest guidance, but it still
lies slightly left of the multi-model consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Environmental conditions are not expected to become any more
favorable for strengthening during the next couple days, so Hilda's
intensity has likely peaked. Moderate northeasterly shear is
forecast to persist for the next 36-48 h, and the NHC forecast track
brings Hilda north of the 26 deg C isotherm by the time these
upper-level winds subside. Once over cooler waters, Hilda is
forecast to quickly spin down and weaken to a tropical depression by
96 h. The NHC intensity forecast has again been lowered by 5-10 kt
from the previous one at all forecast times, but it still lies
slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids through 72 h. The
system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.1N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

...HILDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 121.6W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.6 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected on Monday, and this general motion is forecast
to continue through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight,
but some additional weakening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020234
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.2N 123.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 125.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 126.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 132.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012033
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Hilda has had a similar appearance all day with an elongated cloud
pattern from southeast to northwest on satellite imagery. Recent
microwave passes show that the center is located on the northern
side of the central dense overcast. The current intensity estimates
have a very wide range from 65 to 90 kt, and with the apparent
steady-state of the hurricane, Hilda's wind speed will stay at 75 kt
until clearer data emerges.

Hilda continues moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The trends
from the last advisory have continued with more interaction shown
with new Tropical Depression 10-E to the east, leading to a weaker
ridge and a faster northwestward turn of Hilda in a day or so. By
midweek, Hilda should turn back to the west-northwest and westward
later in the period under the influence of a stronger portion of
the ridge. The new official forecast is shifted about a half a
degree to the northeast, near the model consensus, although the
corrected-consensus models are even farther to the right.

With the forecast track shift, it is becoming unlikely that Hilda
will get significantly stronger since it will move over cooler
waters sooner. In addition, easterly shear should increase
tomorrow, probably leading to the start of weakening. Guidance has
trended downward since the last cycle, and considering the new track
forecast moves over cooler waters faster, the latest NHC wind speed
forecast has been lowered 5-10 kt at all time periods, and this
still might be too high. In about 4 days, most of the models show
little convection remaining with Hilda due to cold water and drier
mid-level air, so the system should transition to a remnant low by
day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.8N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 012031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

...HILDA HANGING ONTO 85-MPH WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 120.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 120.8 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 012031
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 011450
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Hilda is a bit of a mess this morning with an elongated cloud
pattern from southeast to northwest and no signs of an eye in
conventional satellite imagery. However, microwave data near 1155
UTC from GPM still shows a well-defined low-level eye, although the
mid-level structure remains degraded from easterly shear. The
current wind speed is held at 75 kt, with this being an uncertain
estimate due to a large spread in the various intensity techniques.

Hilda is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt, with microwave
data helping to pinpoint the slower movement. The track forecast is
no piece of cake this morning with some interaction anticipated with
Invest 91E to the east in a day or two. While a mid-level ridge
persists to the northwest of Hilda, the southern periphery of the
ridge weakens due to 91E, causing Hilda to take a northwestward
turn in a couple of days. Hilda then should turn back toward the
west-northwest and west by midweek due to the ridge remaining in
place and 91E weakening. This is a tricky forecast because the
guidance is shifting to the right, which at some point will bring
Hilda over cold waters and closer to 91E, changing which
atmospheric layers will dominate steering the tropical cyclone. In
addition, interactions between two systems this close together
aren't easy to forecast in the best of circumstances, and
the latest guidance isn't in great agreement on the future strength
of 91E either. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast is more
conservative in shifting the track to the northeast than the
guidance (remaining on the westerly side of the track envelope),
then gradually comes close to the previous NHC forecast by the end
of the 5-day period. This forecast is obviously rather uncertain,
and a lot of generally better performing aids are to the northeast
of the latest NHC track.

The hurricane still has some chance to intensify during the next day
or so with moderate easterly shear and good inner-core structure.
Still, it is becoming more likely that Hilda is close to its peak
intensity with no signs of the easterly shear abating until the
hurricane moves over cool waters in a few days. Model guidance
generally is lower than the last cycle, and only a few show
strengthening. I'm going to keep the chance for slight strengthening
in the near term, then show a steady drop in intensity due to
persistent (or stronger) easterly shear and marginal water
temperatures. The new intensity forecast is 5 kt lower than the
last one at 36 hours and beyond and that could still be too high,
especially if the track shifts any farther to the north.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.6N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 011443
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

...HILDA IN NO HURRY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 120.2W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 120.2 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 011443
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.9N 121.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 123.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 131.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010836
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Hilda's strengthening last evening was short lived. Infrared and
water vapor imagery show high-level clouds from a weather
disturbance to the east impinging on the eastern side of Hilda's
circulation, suggestive of moderate easterly shear. In fact,
85-GHz SSMIS data from 0241 UTC shows that the microwave
presentation has degraded significantly, with most of the deep
convection displaced to the west of the low-level center. Hilda's
initial intensity is being held at 75 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers
of 4.5 from TAFB and SAB, although that estimate could be generous.

Hilda continues to move west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the
south of a subtropical ridge which is expected to build westward
over the Pacific during the next few days. Despite the placement
of this ridge, the dynamical models indicate that Hilda is likely
to have some degree of binary interaction with the disturbance to
its east and thus take on a northwestward heading on days 2 and 3.
After the interaction, the ridge should then cause Hilda to turn
back toward the west-northwest and then west by days 4 and 5.
While there are some model outliers, the spread among the guidance
has actually decreased over the past 24 hours. The updated NHC
track forecast is not too different from the previous forecast,
except that it is a little slower to account for recent model
trends.

The moderate easterly shear affecting Hilda is unlikely to abate
much during the next couple of days, especially as the distance
between the hurricane and the disturbance to the east decreases.
Still, Hilda will remain over relatively warm waters during that
period, and the models suggest that the hurricane will either
maintain its current intensity or strengthen slightly through 48
hours. Hilda is then expected to move over waters colder than 26
degrees Celsius, causing a steady weakening trend through the end
of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous forecast to account for the current
structure of the cyclone and the latest model solutions, although
the forecast intensities are not as low as what is shown by the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

...HILDA'S STRENGTHENING COMES TO A HALT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 119.6W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 119.6 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, but weakening
is likely to occur on Monday and Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010835
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 119.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.3N 122.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 123.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 126.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.1N 130.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 135.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010236
TCDEP3

Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Hilda has resumed strengthening during the past several hours,
including the short-lived appearance of an eye in the central
dense overcast. Recent 37-GHz microwave imagery confirms an eye
is developing, but indicates that the eyewall is not yet closed on
the northeastern side of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt, while the CIMSS satellite consensus is
near 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased
to a possibly conservative 75 kt.

Although Hilda is experiencing some easterly vertical shear,
conditions are generally conducive for strengthening during the
next 24 h, and the early part of the intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward based mainly on current trends. After that
time, decreasing moisture and decreasing sea surface temperatures
along the forecast track should cause steady weakening. The latter
part of the intensity forecast has only minor changes from the
previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance.

The initial motion is now a little slower at 285/9. The
subtropical ridge to the north should steer Hilda generally
west-northwestward for the next several days, with a more
northwestward motion around 96 h as the cyclone passes south of a
weakness in the ridge. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a
little northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast
track is also adjusted northward. It should be noted, though, that
the global models continue to show the possibility of erratic motion
due to Hilda interacting with TD-9E to the west and the weaker, but
larger, low pressure area to the east. The most drastic example of
this is in the Canadian model, which shows Hilda taking a
significant turn to the south before resuming a northward motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...HILDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 118.7W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 118.7 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight
and Sunday. By Monday, Hilda is expected to slowly weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010235
TCMEP3

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 118.7W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 312036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

After strengthening quickly overnight and early this morning,
Hilda's intensity appears to have leveled off for now. There
continues to be hints of an eye feature in satellite images and
deep convection is organized in curved bands around that feature.
The latest Dvorak estimates are 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 4.0/65 kt from
SAB, and 4.1/67 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. A
recent ASCAT-B overpass showed a maximum wind of around 50 kt
southeast of the center, but the coarse resolution of the
instrument is unlikely to capture the storm's true intensity.
Based on a combination of this data, the initial intensity is held
at 60 kt, but this could be a little conservative and Hilda is very
near hurricane strength. The aforementioned ASCAT data was also
used to adjust the wind radii inward at the initial and short range
forecast times.

Steady strengthening seems likely during the next 24 to 36 hours as
the environment remains generally favorable, consisting of
relatively warm SSTs, low wind shear, and a high amount of
moisture. The NHC intensity forecast during that time period is
the same as before and lies at the high end of the model guidance,
near HCCA. Beyond 36 hours, however, decreasing moisture and
progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and
gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope for that portion of the forecast.

Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A subtropical ridge
should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the
next several days, but the more skillful models like the GFS and
ECMWF show some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to
the west and a low pressure area to the east. These interactions
will likely cause some slow downs and an erratic motion at
times during the forecast period. There continues to be a fair
amount of spread in the models, especially in terms of forward
speed, and the new forecast is a little to the north of the
previous based on the latest guidance. This track prediction is
slightly slower than the consensus aids, and has given more weight
to the GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 14.1N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 312035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 PM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...HILDA EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 117.9W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 117.9 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is expected through Sunday, with Hilda
expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is
anticipated to begin on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 312035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 117.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 123.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 125.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 126.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 133.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 311449
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Hilda is strengthening quickly this morning. Satellite images show
an eye feature trying to form, and convection has deepened and
become increasingly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak
estimates supported raising the initial intensity to 55 kt at 12Z,
and since Hilda continues to organize, the initial intensity is set
a little higher at 60 kt for this advisory. This makes Hilda just
below hurricane strength.

The current favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear,
high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs should continue to allow
Hilda to intensify during the next day or so. In addition, given
that Hilda now has a tight inner core, rapid intensification (RI) is
a decent possibility, and the SHIPS RI index now shows a 30 percent
chance of that occurring during the next 24 hours. In a couple of
days, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs
should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening
during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is above than the previous one in the short term and it
lies at the high end of the model guidance. The long term forecast
is largely similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge
should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the
next several days, but there could be some interaction with Tropical
Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east
that could cause slow downs and wobbles in the future track. There
is a fair amount of spread among the models, especially at the
longer range forecast times, but the latest consensus models are
right on top of the previous track. Therefore, the NHC track
forecast is largely just an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 311449
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...HILDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 116.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 116.7 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional steady or rapid strengthening is
forecast through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane
later today. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 311449
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 116.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 116.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 116.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 310836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

A prominent convective band now wraps about halfway around the
southeast to west side of Hilda's center, and another band is
taking shape to the north of the center. With the improved
organization, Dvorak estimates increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and a 0520 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirmed that indeed
maximum winds are about 45 kt. This is being set as Hilda's
initial intensity, although it could be a little conservative since
objective ADT estimates have trended higher than that since 0600
UTC.

A mid-tropospheric ridge currently extends from northern Mexico
westward across the Baja California peninsula to about 120W and is
steering Hilda west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. Although this
ridge is expected to build westward and keep Hilda on a
west-northwestward course, potential interactions with Tropical
Depression Nine-E to the west and another low pressure area to the
east could cause the storm to slow down over the next 3 days and
oscillate a bit around that general heading. There is slightly more
spread among the track models than is typical, with the HWRF a
notable southern outlier and the GFS and HMON models having some of
the faster solutions due to greater interaction with T.D. Nine-E.
That being said, the overall track guidance has trended a little
slower and farther south on this cycle, and the updated NHC track
forecast has therefore been adjusted in that direction from the
previous forecast, lying close to the TVCE multi-model consensus but
not nearly as far south as the HCCA consensus aid.

Hilda is currently in a light-shear regime and over sea surface
temperatures of about 29 degrees Celsius, so continued
strengthening is anticipated in the short term with Hilda likely
to reach hurricane strength by tonight or early Sunday. However,
global models are suggesting that the shear may increase out of the
east during the next 24 hours, and then Hilda will be near cooler
waters in 2 to 3 days. Therefore, Hilda is likely to reach its
peak intensity in about 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast at
that time is near the upper end of the guidance suite. Hilda is
expected to move over even cooler waters after 48 hours, which
should cause a gradual weakening trend through the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 310835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021

...HILDA STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane by tonight or
early Sunday. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 310834
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 310232
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Hilda has gotten a little better
organized during the past several hours, with the low-level
center now near the eastern end of a long convective band that is
present in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, and based on
these the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The storm is currently
in an environment of light northwesterly vertical wind shear with
the bulk of the outflow to the south.

Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the
next 72 h or so, as Hilda is expected to be over warm sea surface
temperatures and in an environment of light to moderate shear.
Based on this, the first part of the intensity forecast is unchanged
from the previous forecast and calls for Hilda to become a
hurricane between 24 and 36 h and peak in intensity around 60 h.
After that, the forecast becomes less confident. The cyclone is
expected to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after
72 h, and this should cause gradual weakening as indicated in the
official forecast. The official forecast for this period has been
nudged downward due to the forecast motion over cooler water.
However, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that Hilda
will interact with other nearby systems - the GFS forecasting with
Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and the ECMWF forecasting
interaction with a disturbance to the east. Should either of these
interactions occur, Hilda could weaken at a different rate than
currently forecast.

The initial motion is 290/13. Hilda is located on the south side
of a subtropical ridge, and if the storm does not interact with
other nearby weather systems a general west-northwestward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the forecast
period. The new forecast track is shifted a little north of the
previous track, and it lies just to the south of the various
consensus models. If Hilda does interact with either Tropical
Depression Nine-E or the disturbance to the east, it will lead to
erratic motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 310232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...HILDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 114.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 114.6 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda
is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 310231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
0300 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 114.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 302036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

A pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours ago indicated that the area
of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has strengthened, and
is producing 35-40 kt winds on its east side. In addition,
satellite images show a fairly persistent area of showers and
thunderstorms on the south side of the circulation and the center
appears to be fairly well defined in recent visible images. Based
on these data, advisories are now being initiated on Tropical Storm
Hilda and the initial intensity is estimated to be 40 kt.

Hilda is moving westward at about 14 kt and is embedded in the flow
on the south side of a sprawling subtropical ridge that extends from
the south-central U.S. westward across the subtropical eastern
Pacific. A general west-northwestward motion at about the same
forward speed is expected during the next day or two as the synoptic
pattern holds. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is
predicted due to a combination of the subtropical ridge weakening
and the interactions with the areas of low pressure to the east and
west of Hilda. The ECMWF is the slowest model at long range due to
it showing the most interaction with the low to Hilda?--s east. The
NHC track forecast lies generally near the model consensus and
roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Hilda appears to be in generally conducive conditions for
strengthening with SSTs currently around 28 C, abundant mid-level
moisture, and fairly low wind shear. Given that these conditions are
expected to persist for another couple of days, steady strengthening
is forecast during that time period and Hilda is predicted to become
a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. Beyond a couple of days, however,
moderate easterly shear, progressively drier air, and decreasing
SSTs should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening
of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, closest to the intensity model consensus
IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 12.1N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 302036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 113.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 113.6 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and a general decrease in
forward speed is predicted over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 302036
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 30 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 113.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 12.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.8N 119.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 129.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 113.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>