Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IGNACIO-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.6N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 115.0W.
04AUG21. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
757 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 7 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 040236
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Ignacio consists of a swirl of low-level clouds and has been devoid
of deep convection anywhere near its center since this morning.
Therefore the system no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone and
is now a remnant low, or a post-tropical cyclone.

The low has been moving east-southeastward, or about 120/6 kt. A
turn toward the southeast and south is expected on Wednesday while
the system moves around the northern side of a low-level ridge.

Although the low will be moving over slightly warmer waters, strong
easterly shear should prevent regeneration, and the system should
dissipate in 24 h or so.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Ignacio. For additional information on the remnant low please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 04/1200Z 19.6N 114.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 040235
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...IGNACIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 115.0W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ignacio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 115.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-southeast near 7
mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and south is
expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to dissipate by
Wednesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 040235
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 115.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 115.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 115.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 115.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.4N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.9N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 115.6W.
03AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
741 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 032036
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Ignacio has been devoid of deep convection within 75 nmi of the
center for the more than 6 hours now due to strong easterly vertical
wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on
the continued degradation in the convective pattern and a 1536Z
ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that revealed a patch of 27-kt surface
wind vectors south of the center. The small cyclone is expected to
meander over water temperatures near 26 deg C for the next 12-24
hours, while the shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt during
that time. Owing to these unfavorable environmental conditions,
Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system
by late this afternoon, followed by dissipation on Wednesday.

The initial motion estimate is now 090/03 kt. Ignacio is forecast to
make a small clockwise loop within weak low-level steering flow
until the system dissipates around 36 hours. The new NHC official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-consensus
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 20.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 032036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...IGNACIO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 115.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio
was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 115.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A slow motion toward
the southeast is forecast tonight, followed by a southward motion
on Wednesday.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight,
and dissipate by late Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 032036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 116.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 116.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.9N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.6N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 116.7W.
03AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
744 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 031434
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 25 kt
continues across Ignacio, with only small cluster of weakening
thunderstorms located west of the fully exposed low-level
circulation center. Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the
previous advisory, and cloud-top temperatures are now barely -55C.
With the shear forecast to continue to increase while Ignacio moves
over sub-26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures by this afternoon,
regeneration of significant deep convection near the center appears
highly unlikely. As a result, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low pressure system by this evening, if not sooner, with
dissipation expected on Wednesday.

The initial motion estimate is 335/05 kt. As Ignacio weakens
further and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone is expected
to meander within weak, low-level steering currents until the
system dissipates by 36 hours, if not earlier. The new NHC forecast
track is similar to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected-
consensus models, except for the earlier dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 031432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 116.7W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A slower northward motion is forecast today, followed by slow
northeastward or eastward motion tonight before dissipation on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 031432
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 116.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 116.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 20.0N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 116.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.9N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.2N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 116.4W.
03AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
764 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030847
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

Strong east-northeasterly shear has continued to take a toll on
Ignacio overnight with a small cluster of remaining deep convection
now displaced over 60 n mi to the southwest of the center. An ASCAT
overpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous
advisory indicates that Ignacio has weakened to a tropical
depression with peak winds of around 30 kt. That is also supported
by a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
The strong shear and marginal SSTs should continue to cause gradual
weakening over the next 12-24 hours, and Ignacio is expected to
become a remnant low Tuesday night. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all
show the remnant low opening up into a trough of low pressure
shortly thereafter, and so does the official forecast.

Ignacio is moving slower toward the northwest than before, or about
315/5 kt. A further reduction in forward speed is predicted over
the next 12-24 hours as Ignacio weakens and is steered by the weaker
low-level flow. The track guidance again suggests that the remnant
low will turn northeastward before dissipating, and the updated NHC
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 030847
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021

...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 116.3W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio
was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A slower northwestward motion is forecast today, followed by
slow northeastward or eastward motion Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030846
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 115.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 115.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.3N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.1N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.6N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 115.8W.
03AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 809
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 030233
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

The low-level center of Ignacio is becoming even more separated from
the main area of deep convection as strong east-northeasterly shear
continue to affect the cyclone. The associated deep convection is
also shrinking in coverage. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from
TAFB and SAB still give 35 kt, but that is probably a generous
estimate for the strength of the system given its disheveled
appearance.

Ignacio is moving northwestward, or about 310/8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to slow its forward speed while it nears a weakness between
two low- to mid-level anticyclones in a day or so. The track
guidance shows an eastward turn in 24-36 hours, but the system will
likely be influenced more by the weak surface flow, and move very
slowly, by that time. The official track forecast is shifted
eastward from the previous one, but is not nearly as far east as the
latest model consensus.

Ignacio is expected to move through an environment of strong shear
and over marginal SSTs through tomorrow. The model guidance is in
agreement that the cyclone will weaken to a depression on Tuesday,
and the global models show the system dissipating in 48 hours.
Given the current disorganizing trend, however, Ignacio may
degenerate even faster than shown here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.6N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.3N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.1N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 21.6N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 030232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...DISORGANIZED IGNACIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 115.7W
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 115.7 West. Ignacio is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a
tropical depression on Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant low
Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 030232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 115.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 115.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 116.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IGNACIO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 114.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 114.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.4N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.2N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.2N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 115.1W.
02AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IGNACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 857
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08E (HILDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 022033
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021

Ignacio appears to have peaked in intensity, with moderate-to-
strong northeasterly vertical wind shear having displaced most of
the deep convection into the southwestern semicircle of the
cyclone. The latest subjective satellite current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at T2.5/35 kt, and objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are 37 kt and 38 kt,
respectively. Based on these data, the intensity has been held at
35 kt, which could be generous. The center of Ignacio passed 15-20
nmi northeast of Clarion Island, Mexico, where the pressure fell to
1006.5 mb around 1400 UTC and the highest winds measured were
sustained 22 kt gusting to 33 kt according to a Mexican navy
observing station on the island. A pronounced wind shift from the
northeast to the southwest and west was also noted in the wind
data. However, wind speeds have been steadily decreasing over the
past several hours, an indication that the strongest winds are
likely occurring in the northeastern quadrant. Unfortunately, all
three ASCAT passes again missed the center and the strongest winds
associated with Ignacio.

The initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. No significant changes
were required to the previous track forecast. Ignacio is forecast to
maintain a west-northwestward motion between a strong
mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to the
southwest throughout the short forecast period. The new advisory
track forecast is similar the previous forecast track, and lies
along the left side of the consensus track models envelope.

Ignacio is expected to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours due
to steadily increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear in excess
of 25 kt by 24 hours and beyond. By 18-24 hours, Ignacio will be
moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, which will act to
hasten the weakening process, with dissipation expected by 60 hours,
if not sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus
intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 20.4N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 21.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 21.2N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 022033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...IGNACIO EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...
...WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 114.9W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 114.9 West. Ignacio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to begin later tonight, and Ignacio is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 022033
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.4N 117.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 021433
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Ignacio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021

A large burst of deep convection has developed near the center and
over most of the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone. Recent
subjective satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON are 37 kt and 39 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the
intensity has been increased to 35 kt, making the system the ninth
tropical storm of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Ignacio has continued to move west-northwestward, and
the initial motion estimate is 295/08 kt. Both the track forecast
and synoptic reasoning remain unchanged for this advisory. Ignacio
is expected to maintain a west-northwestward motion, wedged between
a strong mid-/upper-level ridge to the north and Hurricane Hilda to
the southwest throughout the 48-hour forecast period. The new track
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory
track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus
track models.

Ignacio is likely near its peak intensity given that northeasterly
vertical wind shear of 18-20 kt is expected to keep the strongest
convection displaced away from the strongest surface winds that are
likely occurring in the northeastern semicircle. By 24 hours or so,
Ignacio will be moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and
into even stronger wind shear, which should induce steady weakening,
with dissipation expected by 60 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a
blend of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 021432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ignacio Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 114.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.0 West. Ignacio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected today. Weakening is
forecast to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and Ignacio is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 021432
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
1500 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 116.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020837
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021

The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In
fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to
the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming
farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that
has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was
located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument
overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the
depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall
change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory.

The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to
become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters
along the forecast track should end that possibility by early
tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter
as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental
conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by
late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global
model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move
west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn
westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its
southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of
the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous
advisory was needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 113.4W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 113.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Weakening is
expected to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and the system is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 113.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 113.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020233
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021

The center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern
edge of the main area of deep convection, as the system is
experiencing northeasterly shear due to the flow on the south side
of a large upper-level anticyclone. Enhanced infrared imagery shows
that the convection is very deep over the western part of the
circulation, but there is little evidence of banding features. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak
estimate from SAB. Hopefully we will soon obtain some additional
scatterometer data to provide an intensity estimate.

The depression continues its west-northwestward track with a motion
near 295/11 kt. This heading should continue for the next day or
two while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure area. In 2-3 days, the track could become
complicated by the interaction with the circulation of Hilda to the
southwest, but the system will probably be quite weak by that time.
The official forecast is close to the previous one but somewhat
slower in the latter part of the period.

Assuming that the low-level center will become at least a little
more embedded within the convection later tonight, the system is
forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight. The storm
will probably be short-lived, however, with increased shear and
cooler waters causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low in
a couple of days. The official forecast is not far from the model
consensus predictions, but a more rapid weakening is predicted by
the global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 17.6N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 112.9W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 112.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight, and the depression could
become a tropical storm by early Monday. However, weakening is
expected to begin Monday night or Tuesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 012037
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021

The well-defined low pressure system located well offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico that the National Hurricane Center has
been monitoring the past few days has developed enough organized
deep convection to be designated as a tropical depression. Although
the convection is strongly sheared and displaced to the west of the
slightly elongated low-level center, barely meeting the criteria for
a tropical cyclone, a recent 1733Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealed a few 28-kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern
quadrant. Thus, the initial intensity is set at what could be a
generous 30 kt. Socorro Island reported a wind gust to 34 kt in a
passing narrow band of showers around 1630 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.
Embedded within deep-layer east-southeasterly steering flow between
Hurricane Hilda to the west-southwest and a sprawling subtropical
ridge to the north, the cyclone is forecast to continue moving
west-northwestward throughout the relatively short forecast period.
The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed
simple- and corrected-consensus models.

The depression has a very narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h
to strengthen. Moderate-to-strong northeasterly vertical wind shear
that has been hindering development the past few days is expected to
gradually decrease from the current 19-22 kt down to around 10-12 kt
in 18-24 h, which could allow for some slight intensification late
tonight and/or early Monday morning when another nocturnal burst of
convection is likely to occur. By 36 h, however, the cyclone is
forecast to move over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into a
drier and more stable air mass, which could induce rapid weakening,
with the system degenerating into a remnant low by 48 h and
dissipation expected by 72 h. The official intensity forecast is
similar to but slightly above the simple- and corrected-consensus
intensity models IVCN and HCCA, respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.4N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.6N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0600Z 20.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 111.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude
111.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening will be possible late tonight or early
Monday, and the depression could briefly become a tropical storm.
Weakening is expected to begin Monday night or Tuesday morning.
A few hours ago, a wind gust to 39 mph (62 km/h) was reported on
Socorro Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 012036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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