Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MIRINAE-21 in Japan from 04 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC to 09 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MIRINAE-21

in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

10/08 00:57 WTPQ51RJTD100000

10/08 00:55 WTPQ21RJTD100000

09/08 21:43 WTPQ51RJTD092100

09/08 21:43 WTPQ21RJTD092100

09/08 19:25 WTPQ31RJTD091800

09/08 19:01 WTKO20RKSL091800

09/08 18:43 WTPQ51RJTD091800

09/08 18:41 WTPQ21RJTD091800

09/08 18:41 WTJP22RJTD091800

09/08 15:45 WTPQ51RJTD091500

09/08 15:43 WTPQ21RJTD091500

09/08 13:45 WTPQ31RJTD091200

09/08 13:00 WTKO20RKSL091200

09/08 12:43 WTPQ51RJTD091200

09/08 12:41 WTPQ21RJTD091200

09/08 12:41 WTJP22RJTD091200

09/08 09:43 WTPQ51RJTD090900

09/08 09:41 WTPQ21RJTD090900

09/08 07:44 WTPN51PGTW090900

09/08 07:39 WTPN31PGTW090900

09/08 07:23 WTPQ31RJTD090600

09/08 07:02 WTKO20RKSL090600

09/08 06:47 WTPQ51RJTD090600

09/08 06:47 WTPQ21RJTD090600

09/08 06:47 WTJP22RJTD090600

09/08 03:43 WTPQ51RJTD090300

09/08 03:41 WTPQ21RJTD090300

09/08 03:04 WTPN51PGTW090300

09/08 03:04 WTPN31PGTW090300

09/08 01:43 WTPQ31RJTD090000

09/08 01:05 WTPQ51RJTD090000

09/08 01:03 WTPQ21RJTD090000

09/08 01:03 WTJP22RJTD090000

08/08 22:05 WTPQ51RJTD082100

08/08 22:03 WTPQ21RJTD082100

08/08 21:13 WTPN51PGTW082100

08/08 21:10 WTPN31PGTW082100

08/08 20:03 WTPQ31RJTD081800

08/08 19:05 WTPQ51RJTD081800

08/08 19:05 WTPQ21RJTD081800

08/08 19:05 WTJP22RJTD081800

08/08 16:07 WTPQ51RJTD081500

08/08 16:05 WTPQ21RJTD081500

08/08 14:03 WTPQ31RJTD081200

08/08 14:00 WTPN31PGTW081500

08/08 13:59 WTPN51PGTW081500

08/08 13:03 WTPQ51RJTD081200

08/08 13:01 WTPQ21RJTD081200

08/08 13:01 WTJP22RJTD081200

08/08 09:59 WTPQ51RJTD080900

08/08 09:59 WTPQ21RJTD080900

08/08 07:48 WTPN51PGTW080900

08/08 07:47 WTPN31PGTW080900

08/08 07:42 WTKO20RKSL080600

08/08 07:31 WTPQ31RJTD080600

08/08 06:47 WTPQ51RJTD080600

08/08 06:47 WTPQ21RJTD080600

08/08 06:47 WTJP22RJTD080600

08/08 03:55 WTPQ51RJTD080300

08/08 03:55 WTPQ21RJTD080300

08/08 01:59 WTPQ31RJTD080000

08/08 01:44 WTPN51PGTW080300

08/08 01:34 WTPN31PGTW080300

08/08 01:00 WTKO20RKSL080000

08/08 00:55 WTPQ51RJTD080000

08/08 00:55 WTPQ21RJTD080000

08/08 00:55 WTJP22RJTD080000

07/08 22:17 WTPN51PGTW072100COR

07/08 21:47 WTPN31PGTW072100COR

07/08 21:43 WTPQ51RJTD072100

07/08 21:43 WTPQ21RJTD072100

07/08 19:27 WTPQ31RJTD071800

07/08 18:47 WTPQ51RJTD071800

07/08 18:45 WTPQ21RJTD071800

07/08 18:45 WTJP22RJTD071800

07/08 15:47 WTPQ51RJTD071500

07/08 15:47 WTPQ21RJTD071500

07/08 13:31 WTPQ31RJTD071200

07/08 13:06 WTKO20RKSL071200

07/08 12:49 WTPQ51RJTD071200

07/08 12:47 WTPQ21RJTD071200

07/08 12:47 WTJP22RJTD071200

07/08 09:47 WTPQ51RJTD070900

07/08 09:47 WTPQ21RJTD070900

07/08 07:58 WTPN51PGTW070900

07/08 07:56 WTPN31PGTW070900

07/08 07:41 WTPQ31RJTD070600

07/08 07:00 WTKO20RKSL070600

07/08 06:43 WTPQ51RJTD070600

07/08 06:43 WTPQ21RJTD070600

07/08 06:43 WTJP22RJTD070600

07/08 03:43 WTPQ51RJTD070300

07/08 03:43 WTPQ21RJTD070300

07/08 01:57 WTPQ31RJTD070000

07/08 01:54 WTPN51PGTW070300

07/08 01:52 WTPN31PGTW070300

07/08 01:49 WTPN31PGTW070200

07/08 00:43 WTPQ51RJTD070000

07/08 00:43 WTPQ21RJTD070000

07/08 00:43 WTJP22RJTD070000

06/08 21:37 WTPQ51RJTD062100

06/08 21:37 WTPQ21RJTD062100

06/08 20:43 WTPN51PGTW062100

06/08 20:39 WTPN31PGTW062100

06/08 19:45 WTPQ31RJTD061800

06/08 18:39 WTPQ51RJTD061800

06/08 18:39 WTPQ21RJTD061800

06/08 18:39 WTJP22RJTD061800

06/08 15:45 WTPQ51RJTD061500

06/08 15:45 WTPQ21RJTD061500

06/08 14:09 WTPN51PGTW061500

06/08 14:05 WTPN31PGTW061500

06/08 13:45 WTPQ31RJTD061200

06/08 12:37 WTPQ51RJTD061200

06/08 12:37 WTPQ21RJTD061200

06/08 12:37 WTJP22RJTD061200

06/08 09:45 WTPQ51RJTD060900

06/08 09:43 WTPQ21RJTD060900

06/08 08:14 WTPN51PGTW060900

06/08 08:14 WTPN31PGTW060900

06/08 07:33 WTPQ31RJTD060600

06/08 06:47 WTPQ51RJTD060600

06/08 06:47 WTPQ21RJTD060600

06/08 06:47 WTJP22RJTD060600

06/08 03:47 WTPQ51RJTD060300

06/08 03:47 WTPQ21RJTD060300

06/08 01:51 WTPQ31RJTD060000

06/08 00:51 WTPQ51RJTD060000

06/08 00:51 WTPQ21RJTD060000

06/08 00:51 WTJP22RJTD060000

05/08 21:43 WTPQ51RJTD052100

05/08 21:43 WTPQ21RJTD052100

05/08 20:25 WTPQ31RJTD051800

05/08 18:55 WTPQ51RJTD051800

05/08 18:53 WTPQ21RJTD051800

05/08 18:53 WTJP22RJTD051800

05/08 15:51 WTPQ51RJTD051500

05/08 15:49 WTPQ21RJTD051500

05/08 13:55 WTPQ31RJTD051200

05/08 12:49 WTPQ51RJTD051200

05/08 12:49 WTPQ21RJTD051200

05/08 12:49 WTJP22RJTD051200

05/08 09:45 WTPQ51RJTD050900

05/08 09:45 WTPQ21RJTD050900

05/08 08:15 WTPQ31RJTD050600

05/08 07:09 WTPQ51RJTD050600

05/08 07:09 WTPQ21RJTD050600

05/08 07:09 WTJP22RJTD050600

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 39N 158E
MOVE E 25KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 39N 158E
MOVE E 25KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM =

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 38.5N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 100900UTC 38.0N 162.6E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 102100UTC 37.5N 168.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 38.5N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 37.5N 168.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 38.5N, 154.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. HOWEVER, ITS
STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME LOW FROM 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091800UTC 38.6N 156.0E
MOVEMENT E 24KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 38.5N 154.5E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 100600UTC 38.3N 161.0E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 101800UTC 37.6N 167.1E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 38.5N 154.5E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 37.6N 167.1E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 38.5N 154.5E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 38.3N 161.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 37.6N 167.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 38.5N 153.0E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 100300UTC 38.5N 159.6E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 101500UTC 37.8N 165.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 38.5N 153.0E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 37.8N 165.5E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 38.5N, 152.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091200UTC 38.6N 152.7E
MOVEMENT E 30KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 100000UTC 38.7N 160.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 38.5N 152.0E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 100000UTC 38.7N 158.1E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 101200UTC 37.9N 164.2E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 38.5N 152.0E FAIR
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 37.9N 164.2E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 38.5N 152.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 38.7N 158.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.9N 164.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 38.5N 150.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 092100UTC 38.8N 156.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 100900UTC 38.1N 162.8E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 38.5N 150.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 38.1N 162.8E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210809064704
2021080906 14W MIRINAE 021 02 075 24 SATL 015
T000 382N 1500E 045 R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 155 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 386N 1564E 045 R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 384N 1635E 040 R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 38.2N 150.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.2N 150.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.6N 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.4N 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 38.3N 151.6E.
09AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 15 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
1421080800 340N1406E 45
1421080806 352N1421E 45
1421080812 362N1434E 45
1421080818 370N1451E 50
1421080818 370N1451E 50
1421080900 377N1470E 45
1421080906 382N1500E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 38.2N 150.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.2N 150.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.6N 156.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.4N 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 38.3N 151.6E.
09AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 38.3N, 149.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 090600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090600UTC 38.4N 149.7E
MOVEMENT ENE 21KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 091800UTC 38.8N 155.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
24HR
POSITION 100600UTC 38.4N 161.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 38.3N 149.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 091800UTC 38.9N 155.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 100600UTC 38.3N 161.4E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 38.3N 149.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 38.3N 161.4E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 38.3N 149.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 38.9N 155.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 38.3N 161.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 37.8N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 091500UTC 38.9N 153.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 100300UTC 38.4N 159.8E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 37.8N 148.3E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 38.4N 159.8E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210809012646
2021080900 14W MIRINAE 020 02 065 17 SATL 030
T000 377N 1470E 045 R034 075 NE QD 160 SE QD 185 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 386N 1519E 045 R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 386N 1578E 040 R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 381N 1639E 035 R034 060 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 37.7N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.7N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.6N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.6N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 38.1N 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 148.2E.
09AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
1421080800 340N1406E 45
1421080806 352N1421E 45
1421080812 362N1434E 45
1421080818 370N1451E 50
1421080818 370N1451E 50
1421080900 377N1470E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 37.7N 147.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.7N 147.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.6N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.6N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 38.1N 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 148.2E.
09AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 37.7N, 147.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 37.7N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 091200UTC 38.9N 152.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 100000UTC 38.7N 158.2E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 37.7N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 38.7N 158.2E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 37.7N 147.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 38.9N 152.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 38.7N 158.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 37.4N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 090900UTC 38.7N 150.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 092100UTC 38.9N 156.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 101800UTC 38.1N 166.7E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 37.4N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 38.9N 156.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 101800UTC 38.1N 166.7E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210808194502
2021080818 14W MIRINAE 019 02 060 16 SATL 060
T000 370N 1451E 050 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 383N 1493E 045 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 389N 1547E 045 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 386N 1606E 040 R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 37.0N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.0N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.9N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.6N 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 146.1E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274
NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
1421080800 340N1406E 45
1421080806 352N1421E 45
1421080812 362N1434E 45
1421080818 370N1451E 50
1421080818 370N1451E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 37.0N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.0N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.9N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.6N 160.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 146.1E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274
NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF IS FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 36.4N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 090600UTC 38.3N 149.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 091800UTC 38.9N 154.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 101800UTC 38.1N 166.7E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 36.4N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 38.9N 154.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 101800UTC 38.1N 166.7E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 36.4N 145.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 38.3N 149.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 38.9N 154.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.1N 166.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 36.5N 144.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 090300UTC 38.1N 148.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 091500UTC 38.8N 153.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 101200UTC 38.0N 163.9E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 36.5N 144.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 38.8N 153.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 101200UTC 38.0N 163.9E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 36.1N, 143.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE
BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.9N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.7N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.7N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 144.7E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z
AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210808131655
2021080812 14W MIRINAE 018 02 050 16 SATL RADR SYNP 020
T000 362N 1437E 045 R034 070 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 379N 1479E 045 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 387N 1528E 045 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 387N 1584E 040 R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.9N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.7N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 38.7N 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 144.7E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
1421080800 340N1406E 45
1421080806 352N1421E 45
1421080812 362N1437E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 36.1N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 090000UTC 37.9N 147.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 091200UTC 38.8N 152.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 101200UTC 38.0N 163.9E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 36.1N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 38.8N 152.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 101200UTC 38.0N 163.9E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 36.1N 143.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 37.9N 147.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 38.8N 152.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 38.0N 163.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 35.6N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 082100UTC 37.5N 146.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 090900UTC 38.5N 151.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 100600UTC 37.7N 160.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 35.6N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 38.5N 151.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 100600UTC 37.7N 160.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210808071719
2021080806 14W MIRINAE 017 02 045 17 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 352N 1421E 045 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 115 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 369N 1456E 045 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 380N 1498E 045 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 382N 1550E 040 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 380N 1608E 035 R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 35.2N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.9N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.0N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.2N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.0N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 35.6N 143.0E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
1421080800 340N1406E 45
1421080806 352N1421E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 35.2N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.9N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.0N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.2N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.0N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 35.6N 143.0E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080600UTC 35.0N 142.0E
MOVEMENT NE 13KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 081800UTC 36.6N 145.3E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 090600UTC 37.9N 149.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 091800UTC 38.5N 154.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 35.0N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 35.0N 142.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081800UTC 37.1N 145.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 090600UTC 38.3N 149.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 100600UTC 37.7N 160.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 35.0N 142.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 38.3N 149.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 100600UTC 37.7N 160.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 35.0N 142.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 37.1N 145.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 38.3N 149.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 37.7N 160.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 34.4N 141.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081500UTC 36.5N 144.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 090300UTC 37.8N 148.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 110000UTC 37.1N 168.8E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 34.4N 141.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 37.8N 148.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 110000UTC 37.1N 168.8E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 34.0N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210808012346
2021080800 14W MIRINAE 016 02 050 12 SATL RADR 020
T000 340N 1406E 045 R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 359N 1437E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 373N 1474E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 379N 1519E 045 R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 378N 1571E 040 R034 060 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 375N 1681E 040 R034 090 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 34.0N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.9N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.3N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.9N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 37.8N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.5N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 141.4E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
1421080800 340N1406E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 34.0N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.9N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.3N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.9N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 37.8N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.5N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 141.4E.
08AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080000UTC 34.0N 140.8E
MOVEMENT ENE 18KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 081200UTC 35.8N 143.7E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 090000UTC 37.4N 147.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 091200UTC 38.3N 152.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 100000UTC 38.6N 155.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 34.0N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081200UTC 36.1N 143.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 090000UTC 37.8N 147.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 110000UTC 37.1N 168.8E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 34.0N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 37.8N 147.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 110000UTC 37.1N 168.8E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 34.0N 141.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 36.1N 143.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 37.8N 147.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 37.7N 157.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 37.1N 168.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 072100 COR
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210807213809
2021080718 14W MIRINAE 015A 02 020 14 SATL RADR 020
T000 332N 1395E 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 352N 1420E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 370N 1454E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 380N 1494E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 384N 1543E 040 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 380N 1653E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015A CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 33.2N 139.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.2N 139.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 37.0N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.0N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.4N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.0N 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
1. 072100Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 140.1E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126
NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MISSING 50 KT WIND RADII AT 24 HOURS.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 40
1421080706 310N1385E 35
1421080712 319N1390E 40
1421080718 332N1395E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 072100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 33.2N 139.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.2N 139.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 37.0N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.0N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.4N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.0N 165.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 140.1E.
1. 07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126
NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MISSING 50 KT WIND RADII AT
24 HOURS.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 33.4N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 35.6N 143.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 082100UTC 37.3N 146.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 091800UTC 37.9N 154.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101800UTC 36.8N 165.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 33.4N 140.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 37.3N 146.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 091800UTC 37.9N 154.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101800UTC 36.8N 165.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 33.1N, 139.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 33.1N 139.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 35.1N 142.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 081800UTC 37.0N 145.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 091800UTC 37.9N 154.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101800UTC 36.8N 165.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 33.1N 139.5E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 37.0N 145.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 091800UTC 37.9N 154.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101800UTC 36.8N 165.2E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 980 HPA
AT 33.1N 139.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 35.1N 142.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 37.0N 145.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 37.9N 154.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 36.8N 165.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 32.7N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 34.5N 141.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 081500UTC 36.5N 144.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 091200UTC 38.1N 152.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101200UTC 37.3N 162.5E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 32.7N 139.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 36.5N 144.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 091200UTC 38.1N 152.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101200UTC 37.3N 162.5E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 138.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071200UTC 31.8N 138.9E
MOVEMENT ENE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080000UTC 34.3N 141.1E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 081200UTC 36.3N 144.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 090000UTC 37.6N 148.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 091200UTC 38.2N 152.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 31.8N 138.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 34.0N 140.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 081200UTC 36.1N 143.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 091200UTC 38.1N 152.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101200UTC 37.3N 162.5E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 31.8N 138.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 36.1N 143.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 091200UTC 38.1N 152.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101200UTC 37.3N 162.5E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 31.8N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 34.0N 140.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 36.1N 143.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 38.1N 152.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.3N 162.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 31.3N 138.3E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 33.7N 140.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080900UTC 35.7N 143.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 090600UTC 37.7N 150.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 100600UTC 37.4N 160.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 110600UTC 37.7N 170.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 31.3N 138.3E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 35.7N 143.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 090600UTC 37.7N 150.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 100600UTC 37.4N 160.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210807072420
2021080706 14W MIRINAE 013 03 025 19 SATL 015
T000 310N 1385E 035 R034 055 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 332N 1407E 040 R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 354N 1436E 045 R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 370N 1472E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 378N 1513E 045 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 381N 1622E 035 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 31.0N 138.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 138.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.2N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.4N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 37.0N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.1N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.0E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 45
1421080706 310N1385E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 31.0N 138.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 138.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.2N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.4N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 37.0N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 38.1N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 31.6N 139.0E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 138.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2110 MIRINAE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070600UTC 30.8N 138.3E
MOVEMENT NNE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 071800UTC 33.1N 139.9E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 080600UTC 35.4N 142.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 081800UTC 37.1N 145.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 090600UTC 37.9N 150.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 30.9N 138.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 33.3N 139.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080600UTC 35.2N 142.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090600UTC 37.7N 150.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 100600UTC 37.4N 160.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 110600UTC 37.7N 170.6E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 30.9N 138.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 35.2N 142.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090600UTC 37.7N 150.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 100600UTC 37.4N 160.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 30.9N 138.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 33.3N 139.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 35.2N 142.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 37.7N 150.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 37.4N 160.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 37.7N 170.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 30.0N 138.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 32.5N 139.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080300UTC 34.7N 142.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 090000UTC 37.6N 148.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 110000UTC 38.6N 169.3E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 30.0N 138.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 34.7N 142.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 090000UTC 37.6N 148.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 29.4N, 137.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210807011506
2021080700 14W MIRINAE 012 04 040 11 SATL 015
T000 293N 1375E 045 R034 110 NE QD 165 SE QD 120 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 318N 1396E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 339N 1420E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 357N 1454E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 371N 1492E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 374N 1538E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 375N 1590E 035 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 137.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 137.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.9N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.1N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 37.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.5N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 138.0E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE)
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
1421080700 293N1375E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 137.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 137.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.9N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.1N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 37.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.5N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 138.0E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.3N 137.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3N 137.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.9N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.1N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 37.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.5N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 138.0E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 29.4N 137.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 31.9N 139.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080000UTC 33.9N 141.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090000UTC 37.6N 148.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 110000UTC 38.6N 169.3E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 29.4N 137.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 33.9N 141.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090000UTC 37.6N 148.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 100000UTC 37.7N 157.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 29.4N 137.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.9N 139.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 33.9N 141.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 37.6N 148.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 37.7N 157.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.6N 169.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 29.1N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 31.5N 138.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 072100UTC 33.8N 140.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 081800UTC 37.5N 146.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 091800UTC 38.1N 155.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 101800UTC 38.4N 166.5E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 29.1N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 33.8N 140.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 081800UTC 37.5N 146.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 091800UTC 38.1N 155.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210806194855
2021080618 14W MIRINAE 011 04 075 18 SATL 020
T000 284N 1367E 040 R034 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 308N 1390E 045 R034 110 NE QD 210 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 331N 1410E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 351N 1440E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 369N 1476E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 377N 1519E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 381N 1566E 035 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 136.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 136.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 30.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.1N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.9N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.7N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.1N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 137.3E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425
NM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z
AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS
UPDATES.//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
1421080618 284N1367E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 136.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 136.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 30.8N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.1N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 36.9N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 37.7N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 38.1N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 137.3E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425
NM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z
AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 28.6N, 136.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 28.6N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 31.1N 138.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 071800UTC 33.4N 139.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 081800UTC 37.5N 146.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 091800UTC 38.1N 155.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 101800UTC 38.4N 166.5E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 28.6N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 33.4N 139.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 081800UTC 37.5N 146.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 091800UTC 38.1N 155.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 28.6N 136.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 31.1N 138.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 33.4N 139.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 37.5N 146.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 38.1N 155.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.4N 166.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 28.6N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 30.4N 137.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071500UTC 32.8N 139.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 081200UTC 37.0N 144.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 091200UTC 38.4N 152.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 101200UTC 38.7N 163.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 28.6N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 32.8N 139.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 081200UTC 37.0N 144.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 091200UTC 38.4N 152.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210806131239
2021080612 14W MIRINAE 010 04 065 14 SATL 040
T000 279N 1347E 040 R034 115 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 297N 1371E 040 R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 321N 1391E 045 R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 344N 1415E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 367N 1450E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 392N 1539E 045 R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 404N 1638E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 010
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.7N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.4N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 36.7N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.2N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 40.4N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 135.3E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
1421080612 279N1347E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 010
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.7N 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.1N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 34.4N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 36.7N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 39.2N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 40.4N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 28.4N 135.3E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 27.7N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 27.7N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 29.8N 137.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071200UTC 32.2N 138.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 081200UTC 37.0N 144.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 091200UTC 38.4N 152.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 101200UTC 38.7N 163.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 27.7N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 32.2N 138.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 081200UTC 37.0N 144.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 091200UTC 38.4N 152.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE E 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 27.7N 134.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.8N 137.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 32.2N 138.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 37.0N 144.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 38.4N 152.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 38.7N 163.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 27.7N 133.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 29.5N 136.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070900UTC 31.9N 138.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 080600UTC 36.2N 142.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 090600UTC 38.9N 150.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 100600UTC 39.2N 160.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 27.7N 133.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 31.9N 138.2E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 080600UTC 36.2N 142.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 090600UTC 38.9N 150.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 210806080341
2021080606 14W MIRINAE 009 04 075 16 SATL 040
T000 273N 1333E 035 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 288N 1358E 040 R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 310N 1377E 045 R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 332N 1399E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 180 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 356N 1429E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 389N 1514E 045 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 402N 1612E 040 R034 195 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 27.3N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.6N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.2N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 133.9E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298
NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1421080300 243N1235E 20
1421080306 243N1243E 20
1421080312 244N1250E 20
1421080318 246N1256E 20
1421080400 250N1262E 25
1421080406 253N1264E 25
1421080412 255N1265E 25
1421080418 260N1267E 25
1421080500 265N1271E 25
1421080506 269N1281E 30
1421080512 269N1292E 35
1421080518 269N1303E 35
1421080600 269N1316E 35
1421080606 273N1333E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 27.3N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 28.8N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.6N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 38.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.2N 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 133.9E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298
NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 27.4N, 133.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 27.4N 133.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 29.0N 136.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070600UTC 31.3N 137.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 080600UTC 36.2N 142.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 090600UTC 38.9N 150.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100600UTC 39.2N 160.7E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 27.4N 133.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 31.3N 137.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 080600UTC 36.2N 142.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 090600UTC 38.9N 150.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 27.4N 133.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 29.0N 136.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 31.3N 137.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 36.2N 142.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 38.9N 150.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 39.2N 160.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 27.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 28.6N 134.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070300UTC 30.5N 136.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 080000UTC 34.7N 140.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 090000UTC 39.9N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 100000UTC 41.5N 156.4E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 27.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 30.5N 136.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 080000UTC 34.7N 140.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 090000UTC 39.9N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 131.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION
OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 26.7N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 28.2N 134.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070000UTC 29.9N 136.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 080000UTC 34.7N 140.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 090000UTC 39.9N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100000UTC 41.5N 156.4E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 26.7N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 29.9N 136.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 080000UTC 34.7N 140.6E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 090000UTC 39.9N 148.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 26.7N 131.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.2N 134.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.9N 136.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 34.7N 140.6E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 39.9N 148.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 41.5N 156.4E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 26.7N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 29.1N 135.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071800UTC 33.3N 139.2E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 081800UTC 38.4N 146.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 091800UTC 40.7N 154.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 26.7N 130.5E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 29.1N 135.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071800UTC 33.3N 139.2E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 081800UTC 38.4N 146.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 26.8N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 28.6N 134.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071800UTC 33.3N 139.2E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 081800UTC 38.4N 146.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 091800UTC 40.7N 154.5E 230NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 26.8N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 28.6N 134.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071800UTC 33.3N 139.2E 105NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 081800UTC 38.4N 146.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 990 HPA
AT 26.8N 130.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.6N 134.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 33.3N 139.2E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 38.4N 146.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 40.7N 154.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 26.8N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 28.4N 132.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071200UTC 31.4N 137.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 081200UTC 36.5N 143.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 091200UTC 39.5N 151.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 101200UTC 38.8N 160.8E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 26.8N 130.0E FAIR
MOVE E 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 28.4N 132.7E 65NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071200UTC 31.4N 137.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 081200UTC 36.5N 143.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 128.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 26.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 28.1N 132.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.4N 137.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 081200UTC 36.5N 143.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 091200UTC 39.5N 151.5E 200NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 101200UTC 38.8N 160.8E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 26.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 28.1N 132.0E 65NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.4N 137.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 081200UTC 36.5N 143.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) 992 HPA
AT 26.9N 128.6E SEA AROUND OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.1N 132.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.4N 137.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 36.5N 143.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 39.5N 151.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 38.8N 160.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 26.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 28.0N 131.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 070600UTC 30.0N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 080600UTC 35.2N 141.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 090600UTC 39.9N 150.6E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 100600UTC 40.2N 160.9E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 26.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 28.0N 131.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 070600UTC 30.0N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 080600UTC 35.2N 141.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 26.9N, 128.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(MIRINAE) STATUS. TS MIRINAE IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 128.6E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 26.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 27.7N 130.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.0N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 080600UTC 35.2N 141.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 090600UTC 39.9N 150.6E 230NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 100600UTC 40.2N 160.9E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2110 MIRINAE (2110) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 26.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 27.7N 130.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.0N 136.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 080600UTC 35.2N 141.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2110 MIRINAE (2110) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
994 HPA
AT 26.9N 128.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.7N 130.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.0N 136.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 35.2N 141.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 39.9N 150.6E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 40.2N 160.9E WITH 360 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.