Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NIDA-21 Off-shore from 04 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC to 07 Aug 2021 06:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NIDA-21

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

08/08 01:17 WTPQ52RJTD080000

08/08 01:15 WTPQ22RJTD080000

07/08 22:03 WTPQ52RJTD072100

07/08 22:01 WTPQ22RJTD072100

07/08 19:53 WTPQ32RJTD071800

07/08 19:01 WTPQ52RJTD071800

07/08 18:59 WTPQ22RJTD071800

07/08 18:59 WTJP23RJTD071800

07/08 16:19 WTPQ52RJTD071500

07/08 16:19 WTPQ22RJTD071500

07/08 14:17 WTPQ32RJTD071200

07/08 13:07 WTPQ52RJTD071200

07/08 13:05 WTPQ22RJTD071200

07/08 13:05 WTJP23RJTD071200

07/08 10:05 WTPQ52RJTD070900

07/08 10:05 WTJP33RJTD070900

07/08 10:05 WTPQ22RJTD070900

07/08 08:09 WTPQ32RJTD070600

07/08 08:09 WTPN33PGTW070900

07/08 07:05 WTPQ52RJTD070600

07/08 07:03 WTPQ22RJTD070600

07/08 07:03 WTJP23RJTD070600

07/08 04:07 WTJP33RJTD070300

07/08 04:07 WTPQ52RJTD070300

07/08 04:07 WTPQ22RJTD070300

07/08 02:31 WTPQ32RJTD070000

07/08 01:53 WTPN33PGTW070300

07/08 01:39 WTPQ52RJTD070000CCA

07/08 01:39 WTPQ22RJTD070000CCA

07/08 01:39 WTJP23RJTD070000CCA

07/08 01:11 WTPQ52RJTD070000

07/08 01:11 WTPQ22RJTD070000

07/08 01:11 WTJP23RJTD070000

06/08 22:09 WTPQ52RJTD062100

06/08 22:09 WTJP33RJTD062100

06/08 22:07 WTPQ22RJTD062100

06/08 20:45 WTPN33PGTW062100

06/08 20:05 WTPQ32RJTD061800

06/08 19:15 WTPQ52RJTD061800

06/08 19:15 WTPQ22RJTD061800

06/08 19:15 WTJP23RJTD061800

06/08 16:23 WTJP33RJTD061500

06/08 16:23 WTPQ52RJTD061500

06/08 16:23 WTPQ22RJTD061500

06/08 14:15 WTPQ32RJTD061200

06/08 14:00 WTPN33PGTW061400

06/08 13:56 WTPN33PGTW061500

06/08 13:09 WTPQ52RJTD061200

06/08 13:07 WTPQ22RJTD061200

06/08 13:07 WTJP23RJTD061200

06/08 10:09 WTJP33RJTD060900

06/08 10:07 WTPQ52RJTD060900

06/08 10:07 WTPQ22RJTD060900

06/08 07:57 WTPQ32RJTD060600

06/08 07:51 WTPN33PGTW060900

06/08 07:27 WTPQ52RJTD060600

06/08 07:27 WTPQ22RJTD060600

06/08 07:27 WTJP23RJTD060600

06/08 04:11 WTPQ52RJTD060300

06/08 04:11 WTPQ22RJTD060300

06/08 02:22 WTPN33PGTW060300

06/08 02:13 WTPQ32RJTD060000

06/08 01:31 WTPQ52RJTD060000

06/08 01:29 WTPQ22RJTD060000

06/08 01:29 WTJP23RJTD060000

05/08 22:13 WTPQ52RJTD052100

05/08 22:13 WTPQ22RJTD052100

05/08 20:34 WTPN33PGTW052100

05/08 20:25 WTPQ32RJTD051800

05/08 19:15 WTPQ52RJTD051800

05/08 19:13 WTPQ22RJTD051800

05/08 19:13 WTJP23RJTD051800

05/08 16:17 WTPQ52RJTD051500

05/08 16:15 WTPQ22RJTD051500

05/08 14:12 WTPN33PGTW051500

05/08 13:55 WTPQ32RJTD051200

05/08 13:09 WTPQ52RJTD051200

05/08 13:07 WTPQ22RJTD051200

05/08 13:07 WTJP23RJTD051200

05/08 10:13 WTPQ52RJTD050900

05/08 10:13 WTPQ22RJTD050900

05/08 08:45 WTPQ32RJTD050600

05/08 07:34 WTPN33PGTW050900

05/08 07:31 WTPQ52RJTD050600

05/08 07:29 WTPQ22RJTD050600

05/08 07:29 WTJP23RJTD050600

05/08 02:08 WTPN33PGTW050300

04/08 20:17 WTPN33PGTW042100

04/08 14:13 WTPN33PGTW041500

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 39N 168E
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 39N 168E
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 39.6N 167.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 41.2N 173.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 082100UTC 44.9N 177.3W 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 39.6N 167.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 44.9N 177.3W 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 39.0N, 165.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 39.0N 165.6E FAIR
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 40.1N 171.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 081800UTC 44.2N 179.4W 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 39.0N 165.6E FAIR
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 44.2N 179.4W 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 996 HPA
AT 39.0N 165.6E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 40.1N 171.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 44.2N 179.4W WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 38.8N 163.8E FAIR
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 39.4N 170.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 081500UTC 41.3N 177.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 38.8N 163.8E FAIR
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 41.3N 177.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 38.8N, 162.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE CENTER ARE
45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 38.8N 162.5E FAIR
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 39.4N 168.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 081200UTC 40.6N 175.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 38.8N 162.5E FAIR
MOVE E 19KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 40.6N 175.2E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
996 HPA
AT 38.8N 162.5E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.4N 168.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 40.6N 175.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 38.6N 161.6E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 39.4N 167.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 080900UTC 40.6N 173.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 090600UTC 47.3N 170.7W 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 992 HPA
AT 38.6N 161.6E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 39.4N 167.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 40.6N 173.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 38.6N 161.6E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 40.6N 173.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 090600UTC 47.3N 170.7W 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 38.8N, 160.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 39.1N 160.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.1N 160.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 39.7N 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.6N 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 39.3N 161.7E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 883 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 38.8N 160.1E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 39.2N 165.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 080600UTC 39.8N 171.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090600UTC 47.3N 170.7W 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 38.8N 160.1E FAIR
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 39.8N 171.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090600UTC 47.3N 170.7W 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 992 HPA
AT 38.8N 160.1E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 39.2N 165.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 39.8N 171.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 47.3N 170.7W WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 992 HPA
AT 38.7N 158.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 39.1N 164.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 39.6N 169.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 38.7N 158.9E FAIR
MOVE E 25KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 39.1N 164.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 080300UTC 39.6N 169.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 090000UTC 44.9N 176.5W 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 38.7N 158.9E FAIR
MOVE E 25KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 39.6N 169.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 090000UTC 44.9N 176.5W 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 38.7N, 158.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 157.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 157.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.5N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 40.1N 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.6N 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 38.9N 159.4E.
07AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 778 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND
080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070000 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 38.7N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 39.1N 162.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE E 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 080000UTC 39.4N 168.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090000UTC 44.9N 176.5W 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070000 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 38.7N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 39.4N 168.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090000UTC 44.9N 176.5W 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070000 CCA
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 992 HPA
AT 38.7N 158.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 39.1N 162.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.4N 168.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 44.9N 176.5W WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 38.7N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 38.7N 157.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 080000UTC 39.4N 168.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090000UTC 44.9N 176.5W 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 38.7N 158.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 39.4N 168.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 090000UTC 44.9N 176.5W 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 992 HPA
AT 38.7N 158.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 38.7N 157.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.4N 168.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 44.9N 176.5W WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 38.2N 155.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 38.8N 160.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 072100UTC 39.5N 166.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 081800UTC 42.3N 178.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 992 HPA
AT 38.2N 155.8E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 38.8N 160.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 39.5N 166.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 38.2N 155.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 39.5N 166.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 23KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 081800UTC 42.3N 178.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 010
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 37.8N 155.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 155.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 39.1N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 39.6N 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.6N 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 43.0N 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 156.6E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 674 NM
EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z
AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 38.0N, 154.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 38.0N 154.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 38.7N 159.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 071800UTC 39.1N 165.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 081800UTC 42.3N 178.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2111 NIDA (2111) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 38.0N 154.9E FAIR
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 39.1N 165.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 081800UTC 42.3N 178.1E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 38.0N 154.9E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 38.7N 159.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 39.1N 165.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 42.3N 178.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 994 HPA
AT 36.9N 153.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 38.8N 158.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 39.4N 163.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 36.9N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 38.8N 158.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 071500UTC 39.4N 163.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 081200UTC 40.8N 175.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 36.9N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE E 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 39.4N 163.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 081200UTC 40.8N 175.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 36.7N, 152.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 061400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 36.9N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.9N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 38.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.2N 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.9N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.2N 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 154.2E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 36.9N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.9N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 38.4N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.2N 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.9N 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.2N 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 37.3N 154.2E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 36.7N 152.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 38.6N 157.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 071200UTC 39.2N 162.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 081200UTC 40.8N 175.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 36.7N 152.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 39.2N 162.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE E 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 081200UTC 40.8N 175.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 994 HPA
AT 36.7N 152.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 38.6N 157.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 39.2N 162.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 40.8N 175.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 994 HPA
AT 36.7N 151.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 38.5N 155.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 39.3N 160.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 36.7N 151.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 38.5N 155.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 070900UTC 39.3N 160.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 080600UTC 40.1N 171.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 090600UTC 46.0N 171.3W 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 36.7N 151.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 39.3N 160.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE E 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 080600UTC 40.1N 171.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 090600UTC 46.0N 171.3W 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 36.6N, 151.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND
LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 36.2N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 37.7N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 39.1N 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 39.5N 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.4N 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 36.6N 152.1E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 36.6N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 38.2N 154.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 070600UTC 39.2N 159.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 080600UTC 40.1N 171.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 090600UTC 46.0N 171.3W 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 36.6N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 39.2N 159.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 080600UTC 40.1N 171.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE E 24KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 090600UTC 46.0N 171.3W 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 994 HPA
AT 36.6N 151.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 38.2N 154.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 39.2N 159.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 40.1N 171.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 46.0N 171.3W WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 35.9N 150.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 37.8N 153.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 070300UTC 39.0N 157.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 080000UTC 39.9N 167.9E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 35.9N 150.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 39.0N 157.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 080000UTC 39.9N 167.9E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 35.4N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.4N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 37.3N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 38.8N 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.5N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 39.9N 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 40.7N 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 35.9N 150.6E.
06AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
499 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z,
061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 35.4N, 149.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 35.4N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 37.3N 152.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 070000UTC 38.7N 156.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 080000UTC 39.9N 167.9E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 35.4N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 38.7N 156.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 080000UTC 39.9N 167.9E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 994 HPA
AT 35.4N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 37.3N 152.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 38.7N 156.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 39.9N 167.9E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 34.9N 149.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060900UTC 36.9N 151.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 062100UTC 38.6N 154.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 071800UTC 40.5N 162.4E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 34.9N 149.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 38.6N 154.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 071800UTC 40.5N 162.4E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 006
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 34.5N 148.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 148.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.8N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 38.9N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 40.2N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 41.2N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 42.0N 168.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 148.7E.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
426 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FT 051800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 34.4N, 148.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 34.4N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060600UTC 36.6N 150.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 061800UTC 38.3N 153.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 071800UTC 40.5N 162.4E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 34.4N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 38.3N 153.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 071800UTC 40.5N 162.4E 105NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 1000 HPA
AT 34.4N 148.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 36.6N 150.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 38.3N 153.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 40.5N 162.4E WITH 105 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 33.7N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060300UTC 36.0N 149.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 061500UTC 37.8N 151.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 071200UTC 40.1N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 33.7N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 37.8N 151.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 071200UTC 40.1N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 33.5N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.5N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 35.3N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 37.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 38.8N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 40.1N 157.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 41.7N 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 148.2E.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z
AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 14W (MIRINAE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 148.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 33.6N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 060000UTC 35.6N 149.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 061200UTC 37.3N 150.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 071200UTC 40.1N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 33.6N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 37.3N 150.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 071200UTC 40.1N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) 1000 HPA
AT 33.6N 148.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 35.6N 149.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 37.3N 150.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 40.1N 157.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 32.9N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 052100UTC 35.1N 148.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 060900UTC 36.9N 150.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 070600UTC 39.9N 153.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 080600UTC 39.5N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 32.9N 148.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 36.9N 150.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 070600UTC 39.9N 153.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 080600UTC 39.5N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 2111 NIDA (2111)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 31.4N, 147.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(NIDA) STATUS. TS NIDA IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 147.7E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND HIGH SSTS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 32.5N 147.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.5N 147.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.5N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 38.1N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 39.4N 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 40.8N 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 147.9E.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 32.5N 147.7E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 051800UTC 34.7N 148.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 060600UTC 36.8N 149.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 070600UTC 39.9N 153.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 080600UTC 39.5N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2111 NIDA (2111) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 32.5N 147.7E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 36.8N 149.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 070600UTC 39.9N 153.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 080600UTC 39.5N 165.8E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2111 NIDA (2111) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 32.5N 147.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 34.7N 148.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 36.8N 149.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 39.9N 153.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 39.5N 165.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 31.6N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.7N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 35.7N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 37.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 39.0N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 40.5N 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 32.1N 147.4E.
05AUG21. TROPICAL STORM 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z
AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 210804194500
2021080418 15W FIFTEEN 002 03 350 14 SATL 030
T000 302N 1477E 030
T012 327N 1474E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 348N 1474E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 365N 1484E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 381N 1501E 035 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 403N 1581E 035 R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 30.2N 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 32.7N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 34.8N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 36.5N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 38.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 40.3N 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 147.6E.
04AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
506 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
1521080218 201N1422E 15
1521080300 206N1429E 15
1521080306 213N1438E 15
1521080312 221N1449E 15
1521080318 228N1458E 15
1521080400 252N1470E 20
1521080406 274N1477E 20
1521080412 288N1480E 30
1521080418 302N1477E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032221ZAUG2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 28.8N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 31.2N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 33.2N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 34.8N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 36.6N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.8N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.0N 159.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 147.8E.
04AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
324 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12W (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (LUPIT) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14W (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 032230).//
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