Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FRED-21
in United States, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 85.0W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 85.0W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.2N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.6N 80.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 85.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSON FRED. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 11 AM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FRED WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today,
across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the
central Appalachians by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days and Fred is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by tonight and merge with a frontal system on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:
Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today?-?

Portions of Georgia and the Southern Appalachians... 4 to 8 inches
of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are
expected.

Through Thursday?-?

Central Appalachians including portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of
6 inches expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment today.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at

WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening
across parts of Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southwestern
Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tropical Depression Fred. Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170840
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Fred has moved farther inland and is now located near the border of
southwestern Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Between 0400-0600
UTC, Doppler radar data from Tallahassee, Florida, still showed
68-70 kt velocities between 9,000-10,000 ft associated with a solid
band of convection in the northeastern quadrant. Using 50 percent of
those values supported keeping Fred as a 35-kt tropical storm at
0600 UTC. This intensity was also supported by 30-kt winds on the
west side of the low-level circulation noted in surface
observations. Since that time, however, the solid band of convection
has become fragmented and the thunderstorm activity has broken up
into more discrete cells. Satellite and radar imagery also indicate
that the mid- and upper-level circulations have decoupled and
sheared out to the north of the low-level circulation. As a result,
Fred has been downgraded to a tropical depression at the 0900 UTC
advisory time. Weakening will continue through today as Fred moves
farther inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians, with
Fred likely becoming a remnant low later tonight before merging with
a frontal system over the northern Appalachians on Wednesday.

Fred has continued to move north-northeastward, or 015/12 kt. For
the remainder of today, Fred should maintain a motion toward the
north-northeast or northeast accompanied by a gradual increase
forward speed owing to a very stable steering pattern between a
deep-layer ridge to the east and a broad mid-tropospheric trough
to the west. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory track and lies near the middle of
the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite.

Although Fred is weakening, the system is still expected to bring
flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United
States during the next couple of days.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Fred. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM ED, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from
western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of
the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the
central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible
across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment
on Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 32.3N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1800Z 34.2N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 39.6N 80.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170542
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF EUFAULA ALABAMA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue early this morning. A motion toward
the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to
begin by late morning and continue for the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and
northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains
tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday.

NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is
expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression later this
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Today...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment today.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1
with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain
elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter.
Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office for additional information.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue
over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia,
and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of
the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado
threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and southern Virginia today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle
has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
Florida Big Bend has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will
move across western and northern Georgia on Tuesday, across the
southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday night, and into the
central Appalachians by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Fred
should become a tropical depression overnight or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently
reported at the airport in the Marianna, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1
with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain
elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter.
Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office for additional information.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue
over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia,
and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi,
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of
the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado
threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170248
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida
Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern
Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually
decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations,
indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should
continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken
to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur
on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into
the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that
Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on
Wednesday near the central Appalachians.

Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change
to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The
cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed
between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a
weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new
NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed
dynamical model guidance.

Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains
to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during
the next couple of days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from
western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of
the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the
central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible
across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on
Tuesday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue
over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern
Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 31.2N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162350
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...CENTER OF FRED CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the
Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Fred will move from
western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian Mountains
to West Virginia by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should
become a tropical depression by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently
reported at Marianna, Florida. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was
observed at an observing site near Bainbridge, Georgia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including
Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and
southeast Alabama. The tornado threat will shift northward into
parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern
Virginia on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 162046
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the
eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently
moving farther inland. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt
just before landfall. Assuming some weakening since crossing the
coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt. Fairly rapid
weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the
cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by
tomorrow morning. The official intensity forecast for the next day
or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance.

Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or
020/8 kt. During the next day or two Fred should move, with
increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high
pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over
the east-central United states. The official track forecast is
quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction,
HCCA.

Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains
over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during
the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash,
urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across
portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. By the middle of
the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and
flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the
Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible
across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on
Tuesday.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region.

3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline
within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue
to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of
the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern
Alabama.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 29.9N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162045
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STORM SURGE THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 85.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County line
is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from the
Okaloosa/Walton County line to the Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 85.3 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Fred will move from
western Georgia on Tuesday across the southern Appalachian
Mountains to West Virginia by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical
depression by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph ( 79 km/h) with a gust
to 68 mph (109 km/h) was recently observed at the Apalachicola
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Indian Pass including
Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and
southeast Alabama. The tornado threat will shift northward into
parts of northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern
Virginia on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 162044
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.3W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.3W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 161913
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
215 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MAKES LANDFALL IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

National Weather Service WSR-88D radar data indicate that the
center of Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall near Cape San
Blas, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near
65 mph (100 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 215 PM CDT...1915 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 85.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161747 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 28A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Corrected latitude in summary block.

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION AS FRED APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 85.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the
Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over
western Georgia on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently
reported at Bald Point, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION AS FRED APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4 85.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the
Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over
western Georgia on Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently
reported at Bald Point, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
Tropical Storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 161500
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this
morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO
and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the
circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level
winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from
the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993
mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled
off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the
southeastern quadrant.

Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly
moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is
possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is
likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time
remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is
similar to the LGEM guidance.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from
Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the
previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight
reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but
that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes,
the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9
kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level
subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a
weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of
the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is
expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is
just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most
recent multi-model consensus.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast.
By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy
rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central
Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and
Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion in the Storm Surge Warning area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and
will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions
of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern
Alabama.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 29.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Big Bend area is
extended eastward to the Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the
Steinhatchee River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over
western Georgia on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall,
Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service observation site at
Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 37 mph (59
km/h). NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km)
south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported a
sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the
mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge
Escarpment on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions have begun to occur in portions of
the Tropical Storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 161438 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA IS
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM NAVARRE TO THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 161436
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA IS
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM NAVARRE TO THE
STEINHATCHEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 161341
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radar indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend
out as far as 115 miles (185 km) east of the center of Fred.

This requires an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning along the
coast of the Florida Big Bend eastward to Steinhatchee River. This
change will be reflected in the upcoming 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory package.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 161228
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
730 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRED INTENSIFYING AND LOCATED A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Fred is intensifying this morning, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with an estimated minimum
central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches).

Data from the aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar
indicate that Fred is now moving toward the north at 10 mph (17
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161200
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.8 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the Florida
Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After
landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today...

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday...

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning
over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late
morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward
into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160858
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 86.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western
Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After
landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Today?-?

Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain
with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday?-?

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 10 inches are expected.

Through Wednesday?-?

Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts
with a nearby front.

Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river
flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning
over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late
morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward
into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 160850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated
that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from
underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield
between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently
moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection,
with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the
low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared
tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data
indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is
tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last
reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated
that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during
the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the
deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now
the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt
is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable
reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with
a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate.

Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue
moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves
through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented
east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the
western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today.
The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous
advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged
in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed
consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000
UTC upper-air data.

Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear
conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear
vector is expected to gradually back around from the current
southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component
right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's
track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the
cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until
landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach
a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the
combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to
more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast
to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains.
The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast.
By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy
rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central
Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.1N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 85.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 33.1N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 35.6N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 160844
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated
that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from
underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield
between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently
moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection,
with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the
low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared
tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data
indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is
tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last
reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated
that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during
the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the
deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now
the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt
is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable
reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with
a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate.

Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue
moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves
through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented
east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the
western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today.
The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous
advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged
in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed
consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000
UTC upper-air data.

Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear
conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear
vector is expected to gradually back around from the current
southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component
right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's
track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the
cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until
landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach
a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the
combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to
more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast
to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains.
The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast.
By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy
rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central
Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.1N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 85.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 33.1N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 35.6N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 160843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/
JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 86.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 86.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.1N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.6N 84.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 86.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160551
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
satellites near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through
this morning, followed by a turn toward the north this afternoon.
On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the
western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and a
nearby ship indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near
50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is
forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to
quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance
aircraft is estimated to be 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Today...

Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 9 inches are expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning later this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning over
the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning
and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into
southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 160244
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Fred remains a sheared tropical cyclone however the overall
organization of the system has improved somewhat since this
afternoon. The low-level center is embedded near the western edge
of the primary convective mass, and there has been an overall
increase in deep convection near and to the east of the center. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been
investigating Fred this evening has reported that the pressure has
fallen to 999 mb and it has found winds to support an initial
intensity of 45 kt. The plane found a very small area of slightly
stronger flight-level and SFMR winds well east of the center, but
those winds appear to have been associated with a strong convective
cell and are likely not representative of the system's overall
intensity.

Fred is moving north-northwestward or 330/08 kt, and this motion
should continue overnight. The dynamical model guidance indicates
that the tropical cyclone will turn northward on Monday as it
approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle. A north-
northeastward motion around the western periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic should commence by the time the
system makes landfall, and this general heading should continue
until the system dissipates in a couple of days. The dynamical
models envelope did not change much and the latest consensus aids
were essentially along the previous NHC track. As a result, little
alteration was made to the previous official track forecast.

The cyclone is located within an area of moderate southwesterly
vertical wind shear. However, most of the intensity guidance
continues to suggest that Fred will strengthen a little over the
next 12-18 hours. As the system nears the northern Gulf coast, the
SHIPS guidance forecasts some increase in shear and the intensity
models reflect this by showing a leveling off of Fred's intensity at
that time. After landfall, Fred should weaken quickly and dissipate
over the Tennessee Valley in a little more than 48 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement within the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast,
including portions of southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle
of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western
Carolinas. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland
toward the Tennessee Valley, heavy rainfall and flooding may impact
the southern and central Appalachians, and the Piedmont of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 27.3N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 160243
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO NAVARRE
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/
JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.9W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 86.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.3N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 84.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 85.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160243
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to
quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected..

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with
isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum
storm totals of 9 inches are expected.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning by late Monday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through
early Monday over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during
the day Monday from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest
Georgia and southeast Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 152348
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRED AS IT
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 85.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of
Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected until landfall.
After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm
totals of 9 inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight into early Monday
along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 152035
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.

After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north
motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west
of the various consensus models.

Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 152034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST EAST
OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO YANKEETOWN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/
JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO
NAVARRE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE REMNANTS OF FRED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 85.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 85.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 152034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FRED STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO YANKEETOWN...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect along the Florida coast east
of Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of
the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until landfall. After
landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches.

Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm
totals of 9 inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash,
urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft
Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible this afternoon into early
Monday along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151741
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FRED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to
Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall, while Fred is
expected to weaken quickly after moving inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is
anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 151452
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the remnants of Fred have
re-developed into a tropical cyclone over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level center
near the northern end of a broadly curved convective band. The
Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1008 mb, along
with 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and SFMR wind estimates
near 35 kt about 70 n mi northeast of the center. Based on these
developments and data, the system was upgraded back to Tropical
Storm Fred a couple of hours ago.

The center re-formed northward during the redevelopment process,
and the initial position is re-located to the north of the previous
advisory position. While the forecast guidance is basically
unchanged in calling for a north-northwest motion followed by a
turn toward the north near landfall on the northern Gulf coast, the
new initial position requires the forecast track to be shifted about
40 n mi to the east of the previous track through the landfall time.
Fred is now expected to make landfall in the western Florida
Panhandle sometime Monday afternoon or evening.

Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. The intensity guidance forecasts
gradual intensification before landfall, and the official intensity
forecast follows the guidance in calling for a peak intensity of
45 kt. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as
it moves into the Tennessee Valley.

Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream and river flooding impacts across southern Florida, the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, southern Alabama, portions of
Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From Tuesday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could continue into other portions of the
Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and a Storm Surge Warning has
been issued for this area. Interests in these areas should follow
any advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 26.1N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...FRED AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 84.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from from Indian Pass to
Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico
from Alabama to the eastern Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.9 West. Fred is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is
expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred
should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through
Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday
afternoon or Monday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until landfall,
while Fred is expected to weaken quickly after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches of rain is
anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee
Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft
Steinhatchee River to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area beginning on Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coast of
Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 151451
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM FROM INDIAN PASS TO
STEINHATCHEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NAVARRE TO THE WAKULLA/
JEFFERSON COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO
NAVARRE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM ALABAMA TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 85.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.5N 86.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.7N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 84.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 151241
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.

SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151153
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF FRED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 25.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. While the center has
jogged northward during the past few hours, the remnants are moving
generally toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn
toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later
today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the
Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday...

Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated
storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated.

Through Tuesday...

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151006
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 23...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Corrected to include Next Intermediate Advisory Time

...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward
to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward
the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system
will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is
expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with
gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of
Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday?-?

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm
totals of 8 inches are anticipated.

Through Tuesday?-?

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow...
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3
ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 151004 CCA
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
LATER THIS MORNING.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 150859
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

The remnants of Fred have been undergoing some noticeable changes
early this morning, with one of those features being a curved band
of deep convection having developed in the northeastern quadrant of
the larger cyclonic envelope. A low-level jet (925-850 mb) was noted
in the 0000 UTC upper-air air data and in the Key West VAD wind
profile radar data late last night and early this morning. That
speed maximum produced 2-hours worth of 34-kt and higher 10-meter
winds at the Sand Key (SANF1) C-MAN station south of Key West, and
that is the basis for the increasing the intensity to 35 kt for this
advisory. That speed maximum is also likely responsible for the
large increase in convection north of the Dry Tortugas, which also
has helped to spin up a small mesovortex that passed over buoy
42026 between 0500-0600 UTC, causing the pressure to decrease 3.6 mb
in one hour. That small-scale feature is moving westward and could
become the the low-level center farther to the north of the current
alleged center within the next few hours.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/07 kt. The system is
expected to move north-northwestward or northwestward today and
tonight through a narrow weakness in the subtropical ridge located
between 85W-88W longitude based on 0000Z upper-air data. The system
is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern
Gulf of coast and comes under the influence of a mid- to
upper-level trough forecast to drop southward over the western Gulf
of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast had to be shifted farther to
the east of the previous advisory, and subsequent forecast tracks
may have to be shifted even further east if a new center develops
farther to the north or northeast as per what recent satellite and
buoy data suggest. The official forecasts track lies a little to the
left of the tightly packed consensus track models.

Upper-level winds are expected to remain marginally conducive for
strengthening due to at least some modest southwesterly wind shear
affecting the cyclone for the next 48 hours. After landfall, Fred
is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the
circulation should dissipate by around 96 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico later today, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning
Monday night. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for
a portion of this area later this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 24.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 150855
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward
to Ochlockonee River, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward
the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system
will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is
expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with
gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of
Mexico until it makes landfall.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Through Monday?-?

Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm
totals of 8 inches are anticipated.

Through Tuesday?-?

The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.

South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow...
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3
ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 150854
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER THIS
MORNING.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 150248
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 150248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area early Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue
through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on
Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or
tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while
it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.

From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.

Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night
over parts of the western Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 150248
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Deep convection has increased in association with the remnants of
Fred this evening with some lose banding noted in both satellite
imagery and radar data from Key West. Satellite imagery and surface
observations also indicate that the circulation has become a little
better defined since this afternoon, but the system still lacks a
well-defined center. Therefore, the system has not regained
tropical cyclone status yet. The initial intensity remains 30 kt
and is based on a few buoy and C-MAN observations over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Florida Keys which have
reported peak winds of 25-30 kt over the past several hours. The
C-MAN site on Sand Key has reported slightly stronger winds, but
that site is elevated.

The system has moved little during the past several hours, and since
it lacks a well-defined center, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 300/08 kt. The disturbance is expected to begin a
more definitive northwestward motion overnight or Sunday morning as
it moves around the western extent of a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward on
Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast. Although the track
guidance is in good agreement on the overall motion scenario, there
is some cross-track spread that appears to be related to where the
center re-forms in the short term. Overall there was some eastward
shift to the guidance envelope and the official forecast was nudged
in that direction, but it still lies to the west of the consensus
aids. The NHC track forecast is closest to the GFEX track, which is
a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

The upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is forecast
to weaken and move northward during the next 12-24 hours. This
should allow for a somewhat more conducive environment for the
system to regain tropical cyclone status and strengthen on Sunday.
However, continued moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear is
likely to hinder significant development, and the NHC intensity
forecast only calls for gradual strengthening through 36-48 hours.
After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly and the
global models indicate the circulation will dissipate by 96 hours.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches
are very likely to be required for a portion of the northern
Gulf coast early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the
day.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on
Monday. Watches will likely be required for a portion of this area
early Sunday, and warnings may be required later in the day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 23.8N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 25.3N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 16/0000Z 26.8N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 28.3N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 29.7N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 31.4N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 33.1N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 142039
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that a broad and elongated
circulation has formed in association with the remnants of Fred, and
that the convection has become more concentrated at the east end of
the elongated center. However, neither the circulation nor the
convection are organized enough to justify calling the system a
tropical cyclone at this time. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to survey the remnants of Fred this
evening to see how far the re-development has progressed.

The initial motion is a still very uncertain 300/11. The system is
expected to move northwestward around the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the north expected as the
system nears and moves inland along the northern Gulf coast in 48-60
h. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement on this general
scenario and the new NHC forecast track is close the the consensus
models. However, some adjustments to the track forecast could occur
depending on where the center of Fred re-forms. Therefore, users
should not concentrate on the details of the forecast track, which
could change quite a bit during the next day or so.

The global models are now in better agreement that the upper-level
trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that has been hindering
the development of Fred will move northward and weaken during the
next 24 h. They also indicate that Fred is likely to re-form
a well-defined closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Sunday morning. Thus, the intensity forecast now calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status in about 12 h, followed by gradual
strengthening until landfall in a less than ideal upper-level wind
environment. After landfall, the system should weaken and
dissipate between 96-120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast follows
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

Although no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect,
the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly advisories on
the remnants of Fred in anticipation of re-development. Watches
could be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight,
and warnings may be required on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico tonight or on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical
storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially
from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on
Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area
tonight, and warnings may be required on Sunday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 24.0N 84.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
12H 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 142037
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.6W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.6W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.1W...DISTURBANCE

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.0N 85.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 87.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.0N 87.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 88.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.4N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 142037
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...REMNANTS OF FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area tonight or Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 24.0 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest is expected tonight through Sunday night, with a turn
toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross
the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move
inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression late
tonight or on Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical
storm expected after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.

From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.

Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.

From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through Sunday over parts
of the western Florida peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 141450
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

A combination of shear caused by an upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico and land interaction has caused Fred to degenerate
into an open wave. Surface observations from Cuba do not show a
closed circulation, and satellite imagery shows at least two
vorticity centers embedded in a large trough. The strongest
convection is currently near and southeast of a vorticity center
near the Isle of Youth. The initial position is a mean position
between the vorticity center, and the initial intensity of 30 kt is
based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data to the
northeast of the estimated center position.

The global models forecast the upper-level trough to move northward
and weaken during the next 24 h and indicate that Fred will re-form
a closed circulation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning.
Given the strength of the upper-level trough, that forecast may
well be too bullish. However, given the agreement in the guidance,
the revised intensity forecast will call for Fred to regain
tropical cyclone status at about the 24 h point, followed by gradual
strengthening in a less than ideal upper-level wind environment
until landfall along the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, the
system should weaken and dissipate between 96-120 h.

The initial motion is a very uncertain 300/10. The system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge, with a turn toward the
north as the system nears the northern Gulf coast in 60-72 h.
While the forecast guidance is in good agreement on this general
scenario, there is uncertainty as to where the center of Fred will
be when it re-forms. Therefore, users should not concentrate on
the details of the forecast track, which could change quite a bit
during the next 24-36 h.

Although all coastal watches and warnings are discontinued at this
time, the National Hurricane Center will continue 6-hourly
advisories on the remnants of Fred in anticipation of
re-development and the potential need for watches and warnings on
the northern Gulf coast later in the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over
the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and bring a risk of tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from
coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
Watches may be required for a portion of this area later in the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 23.3N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
12H 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...DISTURBANCE
24H 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 141448
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 83.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W...DISTURBANCE

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.1N 84.2W...DISTURBANCE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.4N 86.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.7N 87.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 87.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 141449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches could be required for
portions of this area later in the weekend.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday
night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to
pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over
the northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on
Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected
after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys
and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3
to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected.
Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida
Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding
in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls
today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through
tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 141146
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED NEAR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the
northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by
Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west
of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 140842
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

The interaction with the landmass of Cuba has significantly
disrupted the circulation of Fred. In fact, radar data from Cuba,
satellite images, earlier ASCAT data, and surface observations
suggest that the system is likely an open trough with the strongest
winds and deep convection occurring to the south of central Cuba.
Fred is being maintained as a tropical depression for now, but data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters later this morning will likely
confirm if it is a depression or not. The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. Bands of
heavy rain are now spreading across the Florida Keys.

The initial motion of 295/11 kt is highly uncertain since its not
clear if Fred has a center. Even though the storm has moved farther
west than previously expected, the overall track forecast reasoning
has not changed much. Fred is expected to turn northwestward by
tonight and northward by Sunday night as the cyclone rounds the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The new track forecast
has been nudged to the west again to be in better agreement with the
latest model consensus aids. Based on the new track forecast, Fred
is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys later today and
make landfall along the western Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast
Monday night or early Tuesday.

Although Fred is very disorganized at the moment, the global models
show the circulation becoming better defined tonight or on Sunday as
the cyclone moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in slightly lower
wind shear conditions. The storm is expected to strengthen some
during the next couple of days, but significant intensification
seems unlikely as southerly shear is anticipated to increase before
the system reaches the Gulf coast on Monday. GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite images show an asymmetric cyclone with most of
the associated convection and stronger winds on its east side while
Fred moves across the Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, steady
weakening is expected, and Fred is likely to dissipate by the middle
of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river
flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower
Florida Keys later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida
Panhandle and coastal Alabama beginning on Monday. Watches may be
required for a portion of this area later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 23.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 24.0N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 25.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 27.0N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 28.4N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 29.8N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 30.9N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 34.4N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 140840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 81.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.4N 84.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N 85.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.4N 86.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.8N 87.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 34.4N 86.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 81.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 140841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 81.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the
northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by
Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west
of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 140540
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 81.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
to the west-northwest is expected to occur later this morning,
followed by a northwest motion by tonight. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys this
afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Sunday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches
is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the
Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to
areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor
flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing
minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across the
Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting this
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 140251
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take
a toll on Fred this evening. It is very difficult to determine in
infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from
Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is
maintained as a tropical depression for now. Scatterometer data,
which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft
observations on Saturday morning should provide additional
information on the system's intensity and structure.

The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the
previous advisory. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred
should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on
Saturday. The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the
shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the
consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models.
Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be
required.

As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical
will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the
system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday
morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center
re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of
Florida. The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears
to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the
southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although only a little strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment
could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind
speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred
moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The updated intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of
the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. The intensity forecast
continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current
disorganized structure of the system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tonight through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed
river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big
Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend
into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and
central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in
the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida
Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a
portion of this area on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 22.7N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 140249
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 80.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 140249
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,
including Florida Bay.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After
that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new
minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate
ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 132342
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED CONTINUES TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that,
slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 132044
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Although there has been a general increase in convection
associated with Fred since this morning, the system remains
disorganized with the low-level center moving farther inland over
central Cuba. Earlier ASCAT data detected an area of 25-27 kt
winds over water to the northeast of the center, and based on that
data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt, which could be a
little generous.

Since the previous advisory, Fred has been moving nearly due
westward, but the longer-term motion is estimated to be 280/10 kt.
The cyclone is nearing the western periphery of a subtropical ridge
that is centered over the western Atlantic. This should cause Fred
to turn west-northwestward tonight, and then northwestward
on Saturday. The latest interpolated guidance that was
initialized with the more southward and westward 18Z initial
position shows a wider or more gradual northwestward turn, and
therefore has shifted significantly westward, especially in the
short term. However, the global models fields track the 850-mb
vorticity center more along the northern coast of Cuba and some of
those models suggest a center re-formation could occur on Saturday
near the north coast of Cuba or over the Straits of Florida. As a
result, the first 24-36 hours of the track forecast has been
adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not as far west as the
trackers, leaving open the possibility that a center re-formation
could occur. After that time, the NHC forecast lies along the
eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the 12Z
GFS. Some additional westward adjustments may be necessary until
the track guidance stabilizes. It is worth noting that it isn't too
surprising to see these type of models shifts with a system that
remains quite disorganized.

Fred remains within an area of moderate southwesterly vertical wind
shear, and the model guidance generally indicates that this shear
will continue during the next day or so. Since it will also take
time for the system to recover after its passage over Cuba, only
gradual strengthening is indicated during the next day or two. After
that time, the system could be in a somewhat more favorable
environment, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for some
strengthening until Fred reaches the northern Gulf Coast, which now
doesn't occur until around 72 hours with the wider turn shown in
the track forecast. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the
various consensus aids, the statistical guidance, and the HWRF
model, which all generally show the system peaking in 60-72 hours.
The intensity forecast remains of lower-than-normal confidence due
to Fred's continued interaction with land.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a chance of tornadoes will extend
far to northeast and east of the center, and those hazards are
likely to still affect portions of the Florida peninsula, despite
the recent shift in the forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 22.3N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 132042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches
in Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and
Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional
watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west
coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast
track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north
coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower
Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast
of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow
strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 132042
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
IN CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 79.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 79.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 79.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 131731
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near
the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that,
slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again tonight or Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 131451
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Fred remains disorganized this morning. The low-level center,
which is currently over the barrier islands of the north coast of
Cuba, is exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass due
to moderate southwesterly vertical shear. Reports from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft show winds of 25-30 kt
to the northeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains
30 kt. The central pressure is 1013 mb based on a combination of
aircraft data and surface observations.

The center has jogged a bit to the left during the past several
hours, which has brought it to the Cuban coast. The longer-term
initial motion is 295/10. The cyclone should continue
west-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward
the northwest as Fred approaches the western periphery of the
subtropical ridge. This motion should take the center along the
northern coast of Cuba today, near the Florida Keys and the
southwestern coast of Florida on Saturday, and near or over the
coast of the Florida Panhandle Sunday night or Monday. After that,
a northward turn is expected as Fred moves into a weakness in the
ridge over the southeastern United States. With both the initial
position and the track guidance shifting westward since the last
advisory, the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the
west. The new track is east of the consensus models, especially
from 24-60 h, and thus some additional adjustments could occur
later today if the current model trends continue.

Fred is continuing to experience about 20 kt of westerly or
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and these conditions should
continue for at least another 24 hours. Between that and land
interaction, the intensity forecast calls for only modest
strengthening during this time. After that, there is still
relatively poor agreement on how much shear Fred will experience as
it crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the ECMWF and the UKMET
forecasting less shear than the GFS and CMC global models. Due to
the uncertainty, the intensity forecast will keep the previous peak
intensity of 45 kt. However, the intensity guidance during this
period has trended a little higher, and the 45 kt peak is now a
little below the upper edge of the guidance.

It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected
to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains,
strongest winds, and a chance of tornadoes will be.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban,
small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern and
central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain
and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast
and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred
interacts with a front in that area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
12H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 131448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 78.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara and has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Las Tunas, Granma,
and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interest in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or near the north
coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow
strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm
again tonight or Saturday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 131447
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS AND VILLA CLARA AND HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
AND HOLGUIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. INTEREST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FRED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 78.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 78.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 81.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N 82.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 85.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 131151
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 77.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A
turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys
on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1013 mb
(29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 130842
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.7W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.7W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 130843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has
been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita
Beach to Englewood, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected
across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Florida beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 130843
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Fred continues to produce heavy rains across eastern Cuba and
portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning. However, despite
the areas of heavy rain, the system remains poorly organized. Most
of the deep convection is located to the east of the center and
there is little evidence of banding features. The last pass by the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters several hours ago and earlier ASCAT-A
data indicated that maximum winds were around 30 kt. Since the storm
has changed little in appearance since that time, the initial
intensity is held at that value. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data
both planes collect will be helpful in assessing Fred's intensity
and structure.

Fred continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This
motion should persist for about another day as the storm continues
to move in the flow on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge.
After that time, a turn to the northwest and then the north is
predicted as Fred moves around the western side of the ridge. Based
on this expected motion, the storm should track just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight and near or across the
Florida Keys on Saturday. After that time, there is more spread in
the models due to the uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred
makes the northwest and north turns. The range in the model
solutions this cycle span from over the Florida peninsula to the
east-central Gulf of Mexico. Since the typically best-performing
models ended up almost on top of the previous prediction, very
little change to the track was required.

The system is still battling about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind
shear, which is part of the reason why the convective pattern is
disheveled. The shear is only expected to lessen slightly during
the next couple of days, but since the environmental moisture is
abundant and SSTs are very warm, gradual strengthening seems likely
as Fred moves across the Florida Keys and then near or offshore of
the west coast of Florida this weekend. The shear is expected to
increase again before Fred makes its final landfall along the
Florida panhandle in a few days, and that will likely prevent
additional intensification. Steady weakening is expected after the
storm moves inland. The intensity guidance is in very good
agreement, and this forecast lies near the high end of the models.

It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected
to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains
and strongest winds will be.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. From today into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern
and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy
rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the
Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and
early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the
Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions
will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 22.0N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 130541
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 76.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 76.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys and southern Florida on Saturday, and near the west coast of
Florida on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From today into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north
towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream
flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area in Florida beginning tonight or early Saturday. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 130252
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED VERY NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas
by Friday morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.6 West. The depression is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is motion is expected
through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night
or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along
or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be
near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening through Saturday, and Fred could become a
tropical storm again later tonight or early Friday. Fred is expected
to be a tropical storm as it nears the Florida Keys and south
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north
towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream
flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 130252
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this indicate
that Fred's inner-core wind field Fred remains poorly organized.
Also, data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft suggests that the
650-mb mid-level circulation center is titled at least 40 nmi to
the east of the low-level center. The maximum 925-mb flight-level
wind measured thus far has been 43 kt and the highest reliable SFMR
surface wind speed sampled has been 33 kt. A blend of these data
support maintaining a solid 30-kt intensity for this advisory, but
Fred is right on the cusp of regaining tropical storm status.

Fred has slowed down some more, with the initial motion estimate an
uncertain 295/08 kt. The uncertainty in Fred's forward motion is
related to the speed due to the low-level center jumping around
every time a small convective tower develops within the larger
cloud mass. However, the general motion of the wind field and the
associated pressure envelope is toward the west-northwest or 295
degrees. Otherwise, there is no significant changes to the previous
track forecast or reasoning. Fred is expected to continue moving
west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion near
or just offshore the Florida west coast in the 48-to-72-hour period.
On days 4 and 5, a slower northward motion is forecast as Fred moves
into a developing weakness in the ridge. The latest track guidance
has become more divergent, with the GFS model dissipating and then
redeveloping Fred over south Florida in about 48 hours, with the
other models taking a weakening cyclone more westward. The exception
is the westward-trending ECMWF model, which moves Fred along the
Florida west coast. The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly
to the east or right of the previous advisory track after 24 hours,
but lies to the left of the ECMWF model and between the NOAA-HCCA
and TVCA consensus track models.

Fred is forecast to remain under the influence of westerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear for the next 72 hours. It is the
magnitude of the shear that is in question. The GFS maintains 15-20
kt of shear for the next three days, whereas the ECMWF model
decreases the shear to around 10 kt in the 24-to-60-hour period,
with the latter scenario favoring some strengthening if Fred doesn't
interact too much with the Florida peninsula. Due to the uncertainty
in the amount of shear and land interaction that will be
encountered, latest official intensity forecast remains similar to
the previous advisory and a blend of the HCCA and TVCA consensus
model intensity forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern
and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next
week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions
of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and
Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west
coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 130251
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.2N 77.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.2N 80.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.5N 82.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.1N 84.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.8N 85.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.4N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 75.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 122352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED SLOWS DOWN OFFSHORE THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight
and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A
turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On
the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of
eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida
Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south
Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and
north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals
of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small
stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 122053
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Fred remains poorly organized at this time. While the low-level
circulation looks more closed than it did earlier, the center is
broad and may have multiple vortices rotating around it. Also,
while convection has increased from earlier today, there is only
minimal convection near the center and little evidence of banding.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt, with those winds likely
occurring in squalls to the northeast of the center.

Fred has slowed its forward speed, with the initial motion now
295/10. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy
from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the northeast
should steer Fred west-northwestward for the first 24-36 h, followed
by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone approaches the western
periphery of the ridge. By 96-120 h, a northward motion is expected
as Fred moves into a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance has
shifted westward since the previous advisory, most notably after
about 24 h. Thus, that portion of the new forecast track has also
been nudged a little westward, but it still lies to the east of the
various consensus models.

Fred remains in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical
wind shear. The shear is expected to persist during the next day or
so, and this combined with the current disorganization of the system
should prevent significant strengthening during that time. After
that, there remains disagreement between the global models on the
evolution of the upper-level trough over Florida and the upper-level
anticyclone southeast of Fred. Some shear is likely to continue,
but there may be a period of more conducive conditions from 36-72 h.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling
for slow strengthening through the first 36 h, with a little faster
strengthening from 36-72 h. With that being said, the forecast
45-kt peak intensity is near the high end of the intensity guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. From Friday into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal,
urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding across southern
and central Florida, and into the Big Bend of Florida. By early next
week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions
of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday night and
Saturday in the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida, where
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. The risk of tropical storm
conditions will spread northward along portions of the Florida west
coast and to the Florida Panhandle Saturday night through Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 21.3N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 24.0N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 25.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 26.4N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 122049
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 75.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, and for the southwest coast of the
Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef,
including Florida Bay.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for the southeastern Bahamas.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for
the provinces of Guantanamo and Santiago de Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to
Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight
and Friday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or
Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move
along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and
Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow
strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is
forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida
Keys and south Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and
north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals
of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small
stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind
gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the
southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 122049
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN
REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.3W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 75.3W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 80.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.2N 81.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 83.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 75.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 121739
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred.
A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by
Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical-storm strength during that time.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1014 mb (29.94
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with
Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday,
3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning
this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 121456
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 74.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 74.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.8N 81.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N 82.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 33.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 74.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 121456
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 74.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred.
A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 74.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is
expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to
move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north
of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the
Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little
change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening
is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain
tropical-storm strength during that time.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with
Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday,
3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning
later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 121456
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Fred is poorly organized this morning. Reports from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with 1-minute
imagery from GOES-16, indicate that the circulation is barely
closed. Dropsondes in the area reported surface pressures of
1013-1014 mb, and the maximum winds of near 30 kt are well to the
northeast of the center. In addition, there is currently no
organized convection anywhere near the center. Based on the
evidence of the closed circulation, the system will be maintained as
tropical depression for this advisory. However, the structure is
currently closer to that of an open wave than a normal tropical
cyclone.

The initial motion is now 300/12. The subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic north of Fred should steer the cyclone
west-northwestward during the next 36 h or so. This motion should
take the depression away from the southeastern Bahamas and
bring it near the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Fred
should approach the western periphery of the ridge, which should
cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and slow its forward speed.
There remains some uncertainty as to the when and where of the
turn, with the track guidance models remaining spread across a
region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The
new track forecast is little changed from the previous NHC track,
and it lies a little to the east of the consensus models for the
first 72 h or so.

Fred remains in an environment about 20 kt of westerly vertical
wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day
or so, and this combined with the current disorganization should
prevent significant strengthening during this time. While
there is still disagreement between the global models on the
forecast upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, the shear could
lessen after 36 h and allow some intensification as the cyclone
nears south Florida and moves into the eastern Gulf. The intensity
guidance has trended weaker since the last advisory, with none of
the guidance currently calling for Fred to reach hurricane
strength. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one while Fred is over water, and it follows the overall trend of
the intensity guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southeastern
Bahamas and portions of Cuba today.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across
southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact
the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and
into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early
Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. This risk will
spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and to the
Florida Panhandle through Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida
Peninsula this afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.9N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 24.8N 81.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 26.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1200Z 33.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 121148
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.
On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales
in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of
39 mph (63 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 120835
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the
surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located
between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of
the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of
the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of
Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but
there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and
the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's
strength and structure.

Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical
ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western
Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for
the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just
north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that
time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will
be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a
cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the
north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula,
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly
where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models
currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central
Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side
of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global
models and consensus aids.

Fred is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the
next day or so, and those unfavorable winds combined with some land
interaction with Cuba should prevent the system from strengthening
much, if at all, during that time period. The shear could lessen on
Friday and since SSTs are very warm and there is abundant
environmental moisture, some strengthening seems likely when Fred is
approaching the Florida Keys and south Florida Friday night and
Saturday. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more
complicated by how much land interaction there will be with Florida.
Since the official forecast shows a track over the eastern Gulf,
additional strengthening is predicted before Fred makes its final
landfall along the Florida Big Bend region or Florida panhandle late
in the weekend or early next week. However, that part of the
intensity forecast, since it will be very track dependent, is more
uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Continued heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and
potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti
and the southeastern Bahamas this morning, and in portions of Cuba
later today.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and
small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across
southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact
the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend
and into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early
Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. These conditions
are expected to spread northward along portions of the Florida
west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 20.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 120834
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 73.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 73.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVES BACK OVER WATER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 73.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest.
On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys
and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120544
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED OVER NORTHWESTERN HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 72.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred is expected to be near the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today, move near or north
of the northern coast of central Cuba tonight and Friday, and near
the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow
strengthening is expected tonight through the weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas beginning later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 120252
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

The center of Fred is estimated to be located over extreme eastern
Haiti. This position is based on continuity with the previous
forecast and a small low-level cyclonic circulation noted in
cloud-drift wind vectors that were based on the last few GOES-16
high-resolution visible satellite images. A NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft performed a quasi-synoptic surveillance mission this
evening and released dropsondes while circumnavigating Hispaniola.
Some of the dropsondes measured surface winds of 24-27 kt about 150
nmi north and northwest (in the Windward Passage) of the center, and
these data support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this
advisory. The main convective cloud mass has been displaced to the
southeast of the low-level center due to the west-northwesterly
vertical wind shear of about 20 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The global and regional
models remain in surprisingly good agreement on Fred maintaining a
steady west-northwestward motion through 48-60 hours as a strong
ridge remains entrenched over the western Atlantic during that time
period. Thereafter, however, the NHC model guidance diverges
significantly, with the now much weaker HWRF model taking Fred more
westward, while the GFS and ECMWF models move the cyclone
northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near or just offshore
the Florida west coast; the UKMET model lies between these two track
extremes. The weaker HWRF track has been discounted given the NHC
forecast that Fred will remain vertically coherent and restrengthen
after moving back over water. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. NOTE: the
aforementioned NOAA WP-3D reconnaissance aircraft has been releasing
dropsondes from approximately the 450-mb level and has also been
collecting tail-Doppler radar data. These data should have been
assimilated into the 0000 UTC model runs, which hopefully will
provide better track and intensity model forecasts for the next
advisory package.

Fred is forecast remain within a moderate to strong westerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear regime throughout the forecast
period by almost all of the global and regional models. As a result,
rapid strengthening is not expected after Fred moves back over
water. There is one caveat, however, and that is the ECMWF model
forecasting the shear to weaken to 5-10 kt during the 36-72 hour
period, which could allow for a little more strengthening than what
the official forecast is currently indicating. The new NHC intensity
prediction is identical to the previous one owing to the
expectation that some degree of westerly shear will be affecting
Fred throughout the entire forecast period. The official forecast
follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and in
portions of Cuba Thursday.

3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and
small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across
southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact
the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend
and into next week.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning
early Saturday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along
portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 19.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND HISPANIOLA
12H 12/1200Z 20.4N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 13/0000Z 21.6N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 22.5N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 23.5N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 24.7N 81.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 26.2N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 29.2N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 31.7N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 120251
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 72.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 72.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.4N 73.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 76.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 78.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 79.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.7N 81.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 82.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.2N 84.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 72.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 72.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track,
the center of Fred is expected to be over northern Haiti overnight,
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
on Thursday, and move near or north of the northern coast of central
Cuba Thursday night and Friday.

Dropsonde data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is expected overnight.
Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a
few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief
squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti,
the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 112347
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 71.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CAP HAITIEN HAITI
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast to Cabo Frances Viejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo
to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located by satellite-derived wind data near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 71.6 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near
15 mph (24 km/h), and a general west-northwestward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over
Hispaniola overnight, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of the
northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night and Friday.

Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph
(55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little, if any change, in strength is
expected overnight. Slow re-intensification is forecast to begin by
Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could occur in brief squalls over
portions of the northwestern coast of the Dominican Republic for a
few more hours. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief
squalls, will also be possible along the northern coast of Haiti,
the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 112040
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

During the past several hours, the center of Fred has moved inland
over the Dominican Republic. The storm continues to produce an
area of convection near and southeast of the center. However, the
low-level circulation is losing some organization as it passes over
mountainous terrain. There have been no observations near the
center recently, so the initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly
on weakening from the previous over water intensity.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/13. Some erratic
motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the center moves
over the mountains of Hispaniola. After reaching the water, the
cyclone is expected to moves west-northwestward on the south side
of the subtropical ridge through about 60 h. After that, a
northwestward motion is expected through the end of the forecast
period as Fred moves toward a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF,
Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida
Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center
passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more
northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast track
is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from
the previous NHC track.

Fred is expected to weaken to a depression over Hispaniola during
the next 12 h. Once back over water, the cyclone is expected to be
in a moderate westerly shear environment through at least 60 h. Due
to that, and the uncertainty in how well organized the system
will be after crossing Hispaniola, the intensity forecast shows
only modest intensification during this time. After that time, the
global models forecast that an upper-level trough over Florida
will gradually move to the north, with an large upper-level
anticyclone following near or to the southeast of Fred. How close
this anticyclone gets to Fred will determine how much the shear
decreases while the system is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and
the global models are not in great agreement on this. The GFS and
Canadian keep the high far enough to the east to expose Fred to
southwesterly upper-level winds, while the UKMET and ECMWF move it
closer to the storm. The intensity forecast will show a slightly
faster rate of strengthening after 72 h to match the guidance and
the previous forecast. However, there is lower than normal
confidence in this part of the intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this evening, and in
portions of Cuba by tonight.

2. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola through tonight.

4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in
Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and
spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the
Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall
could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible
rapid river rises across southern Florida. Interests throughout
Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 18.9N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0600Z 19.8N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1800Z 20.9N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 13/0600Z 21.9N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 22.9N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 23.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 25.3N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 112039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 71.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 71.0W AT 11/2100Z...INLAND
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 70.4W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.8N 72.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.9N 75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.9N 80.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 112039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 71.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WNW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 71.0 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next two days or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to be over
Hispaniola for the next several hours, move near the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move
near or north of the northern coast of central Cuba Thursday night
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to weaken to a depression tonight as it crosses
Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning
Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through Thursday morning could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
the Dominican Republic for a few more hours. Tropical storm
conditions are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to continue across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tonight, where they
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 111745
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF
SANTO DOMINGO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 70.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 70.1 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Fred is expected to be over Hispaniola this
afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and
the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of
the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected through tonight as the center of Fred crosses
Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected beginning Thursday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center. Santo Domingo, Dominican
Republic, recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida
peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions
should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along
the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 111456
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

Morning satellite imagery and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the circulation of Fred has become better
defined south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The NOAA plane
reported maximum flight-level winds of 40-45 kt, and SFMR winds of
up to 50 kt, although these were measured near the coast and the
reliability is unknown. The central pressure is near 1006 mb.
Based on these data and a dropsonde northeast of the center, the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center is
partly exposed near the western edge of the convection, which has
decreased in coverage since yesterday.

The center has been moving more westward for the past few hours.
However, the longer term motion is 290/14. There is no change in
the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred
should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next
72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone
nears the western periphery of the ridge. The new forecast track is
little changed from the previous advisory and lies near the various
consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track may be
necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola
during the next 12-24 hours.

Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical
shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida
Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear
should persist for at least the next 48-60 h. This, combined with
land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses
Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges
over the water. After that time, the global models suggest the
trough should weaken as a large upper-level anticyclone forms near
or just southeast of Fred. This evolution could let the shear
decrease a little and allow a little more strengthening,
particularly when Fred is over the Gulf of Mexico. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and follows
the overall trend of the intensity guidance.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the
Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today, and in
portions of Cuba by tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises across southern Florida.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today and tonight.
Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates
to the forecast.

4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in
Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and
spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the
Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Interests throughout Florida
should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 18.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 111455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma,
Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 69.7 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola
this afternoon and evening, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and move near or north of
the northern coast of central Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected later today and tonight as the center
of Fred crosses Hispaniola. Slow re-intensification is expected
beginning Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center. La Romana, Dominican
Republic, recently reported sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and
small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

By Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida
peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic, and these conditions
should continue today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along
the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the
southeastern Bahamas beginning late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in Cuba beginning tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 111455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FRED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 69.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 69.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 69.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 111157
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...CENTER OF FRED JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 69.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...95 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 69.1 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today
and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later
today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central
Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with
Hispaniola today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. La Romana, Dominican Republic, recently reported
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 110846
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

Fred's satellite and radar presentation have changed little since
it became a tropical storm yesterday evening. The system consists
mainly of a circularly shaped area of deep convection with cloud
tops colder than -70C on infrared images, with some rain bands
trying to wrap around the center on radar images. The outer
banding features have become indistinct on satellite imagery at the
moment. Upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts to
tropical storm force were reported at elevated sites at Cabo Rojo on
the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico. The current intensity estimate
is held at 35 kt, in agreement with Advanced Dvorak Technique
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

A west-northwestward motion appears to have resumed, at about 14
kt. The system should continue to move on this heading with a
gradual decrease in forward speed, on the south side of a mid-level
subtropical ridge, for the next 2-3 days. Around 72 hours, Fred
should begin to turn to the right as it nears the western periphery
of the ridge. During the next 3-5 days a generally northwestward
track, toward a weakness in the ridge, is likely. The official
forecast track is about the same as the previous one, and in good
agreement with the latest TVCA and HCCA model consensus guidance.
Again, users are advised that 4- and 5-day track forecasts have
average errors of 175 and 200 miles, respectively.

Although the vertical shear is currently low, which would normally
be conducive for strengthening, the cyclone will soon begin to
interact with the land mass of Hispaniola. This should cause some
weakening later today and tonight. Some restrengthening should
occur after the system moves away from that island. However, given
the likely disruption of the circulation by the mountains, Fred may
be slow to regain intensity. Moreover, an upper-level low and
trough near Florida in 2-3 days could impart increasing
west-southwesterly shear and limit intensification. The official
intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and the LGEM
guidance. As usual, there is significant uncertainty in the
intensity forecast for the latter part of the period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Dominican Republic this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late
today.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be
across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few
days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred
is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today. Interests in these
areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning
Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the
Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential
impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's
progress and check updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 18.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 110845
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 68.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 80.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 29.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 68.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110845
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...FRED NEARING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 68.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico including Culebra and
Vieques, and for the U.S. Virgin Islands, is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 68.2 West. Fred is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today
and continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later
today, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, and move north of the northern coast of central
Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola
later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Fred is expected to produce the following
rainfall amounts:

Over Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid
river rises and the potential for mudslides across Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of
Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning
late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110537
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 67.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West. Fred is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Fred is expected to be near or over Hispaniola later today, and
move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible before the center nears the coast of
the Dominican Republic later this morning. Some weakening is likely
thereafter while the system interacts with Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals
of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the
next few hours, and in portions of the warning area in the
Dominican Republic later this morning. Tropical storm conditions
are possible along the northern coast of Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late today.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting
portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to
continue across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and reach
portions of Hispaniola today, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110258
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 66.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located by the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude
17.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west near
17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur
early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during
the next few days. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass
near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday,
be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast overnight before Fred reaches
eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Some weakening is
likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently
measured by a Weatherflow observing site in Las Mareas along the
south-central coast of Puerto Rico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals
of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting
portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to
spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and
reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 110255
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Data from satellites, the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar, and
an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
low-level circulation has become better defined since the previous
advisory and,thus, the disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical
Storm Fred. Although the surface and low-level circulations are
vertically aligned, radar data indicate that the mid-level
circulation is still tilted about 40 n mi to the south. However,
that mid-level feature has been steadily gaining ground from its
earlier 100-nmi southeastward displacement. Radar Doppler velocity
data, aircraft 850-mb flight-level wind data of 43 kt and SFMR
surface winds of 33 kt, plus earlier surface observations of
sustained 33-kt winds, support an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is westward or 270/15 kt. However, this
should be a short-term motion overnight due to interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Puerto Rico to the north. By early Wednesday
morning, Fred is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and
pass through the Mona Passage, reaching the eastern Dominican
Republic shortly after sunrise. A strong subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone is forecast by the global models to basically
remain static across the central and western Atlantic Ocean for the
next five days. Given this pattern, Fred is expected to maintain a
west-northwestward motion through 96 hours, remaining just offshore
the north coast of Haiti and Cuba during that time. After emerging
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on day 4, Fred is forecast to
gradually turn more north-northwestward as the cyclone rounds the
southwestern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. The latest NHC
track forecast models strongly support this track scenario, although
there was a slight northward shift in the guidance envelope on this
cycle. The new official track forecast was shifted a little north of
the previous one through 72 hours, and then lies down the middle
of the tightly packed track consensus models.

Conditions remain favorable for some strengthening before Fred
reaches Hispaniola in about 12 h, but the intensity likely won't be
much stronger than 40-45 kt at landfall. Interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Hispaniola on Wednesday should result in some
weakening, but tropical-storm-force winds could occur along the the
north coast of the island if the center shifts a little more to
right of the forecast track. After emerging back over water by late
Wednesday, only slow strengthening is forecast in the 36-60-h time
period due to westerly vertical wind shear of about 20 kt expected
to affect the cyclone. On days 4 and 5, however, Fred is expected to
be moving over warmer sea-surface temperatures and into a much
weaker wind shear regime, which would favor more robust
strengthening. As a result, some of the regional and statistical-
dynamical intensity models bring Fred near or to hurricane strength
during that time. However, there is uncertainty Fred's structure
after interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Cuba, and continued
disagreement between the global models on how the upper-level wind
flow pattern near the cyclone will evolve, which ranges from
favorable anticyclonic outflow to strong southwesterly shear. Given
these factors, the NHC intensity forecast was only nudged slightly
higher than the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus
models HCCA and IVCN, and the SHIPS and LGEM models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to
begin in the Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be
across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next
several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates
to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning
Friday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the
Peninsula and the Panhandle this weekend. However, it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of any potential
impacts. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress
and check updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 17.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 20.9N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 26.5N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 29.3N 84.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110254
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 66.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located by the San Juan NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude
17.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west near
17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
tonight. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur
early Wednesday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing during
the next few days. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass
near the southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday,
be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is forecast overnight before Fred reaches
eastern Dominican Republic Wednesday morning. Some weakening is
likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently
measured by a Weatherflow observing site in Las Mareas along the
south-central coast of Puerto Rico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals
of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Fred are affecting
portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to
spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and
reach portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 110247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 73.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.5N 82.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.3N 84.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 66.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110002 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A...
Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Corrected direction of motion in summary section.

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from
San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a
west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the
southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km),
mainly northeast of the center. During the past few hours, a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on
the western end of St. Croix. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was
reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102355
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 66.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was located by an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data from
San Juan near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 66.1 West. The system
is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur early Wednesday, with a
west-northwestward motion continuing during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near the
southern coast of Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday, be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Data from the aircraft and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and earlier surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km),
mainly northeast of the center. During the past few hours, a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow observing station at Sandy Point on
the western end of St. Croix. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was
reported near Yabucoa in southeastern Puerto Rico.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 102107 CCA
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Corrected speed of motion in second paragraph.

Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show that the
disturbance has an organized convective pattern, with satellite
intensity estimates of tropical-storm strength from SAB and TAFB.
However, the circulation still appears to not be well defined, with
the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar showing multiple mid-level
centers and several convective cells with small-scale rotation.
Based on this, the system will not be upgraded to a tropical cyclone
at this time. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on mainly
on continuity from earlier data. It should be noted that squalls
with short-lived winds to tropical-storm force have been reported in
bands over the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. A
strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the system
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h with some decrease in
forward speed after 24 h. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
northwest with an further decrease in forward speed is likely while
the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. There
has been some increase in the spread of the track guidance from
72-120 h, with the GFS shifting to the right and the other models
not changing very much. The new NHC forecast track has only minor
changes from the previous one and lies near the various consensus
models.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for strengthening before the
system reaches Hispaniola in about 18 h, although there may be dry
air entraining into the system in the southeastern quadrant. The
intensity forecast will follow the previous prediction in calling
for the disturbance to become a tropical storm before landfall,
followed by weakening to a depression. From 24-60 h, the models
have come into better agreement that the system will encounter
westerly vertical wind shear, and based on that and the possibility
of land interaction the intensity forecast shows little
re-intensification during that time. After 60 h, the models still
disagree on the evolution of the upper-level winds near the system,
but they are in better agreement that conditions over the eastern
Gulf will become more conducive for development. Thus, the
intensity forecast calls for intensification during that time. The
new intensity forecast is almost the same as the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican
Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will
be across the eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next
several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these
areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Florida beginning Friday through the weekend. However, given the
uncertainty in the long-range forecast it is too soon to determine
the timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts.
Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.9N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 102042
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show that the
disturbance has an organized convective pattern, with satellite
intensity estimates of tropical-storm strength from SAB and TAFB.
However, the circulation still appears to not be well defined, with
the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar showing multiple mid-level
centers and several convective cells with small-scale rotation.
Based on this, the system will not be upgraded to a tropical cyclone
at this time. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on mainly
on continuity from earlier data. It should be noted that squalls
with short-lived winds to tropical-storm force have been reported in
bands over the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/17 kt. A
strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the system
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h with some decrease in
forward speed after 24 h. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
northwest with an further decrease in forward speed is likely while
the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. There
has been some increase in the spread of the track guidance from
72-120 h, with the GFS shifting to the right and the other models
not changing very much. The new NHC forecast track has only minor
changes from the previous one and lies near the various consensus
models.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for strengthening before the
system reaches Hispaniola in about 18 h, although there may be dry
air entraining into the system in the southeastern quadrant. The
intensity forecast will follow the previous prediction in calling
for the disturbance to become a tropical storm before landfall,
followed by weakening to a depression. From 24-60 h, the models
have come into better agreement that the system will encounter
westerly vertical wind shear, and based on that and the possibility
of land interaction the intensity forecast shows little
re-intensification during that time. After 60 h, the models still
disagree on the evolution of the upper-level winds near the system,
but they are in better agreement that conditions over the eastern
Gulf will become more conducive for development. Thus, the
intensity forecast calls for intensification during that time. The
new intensity forecast is almost the same as the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight, and are expected to begin in the Dominican
Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will
be across the eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next
several days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual
since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these
areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Florida beginning Friday through the weekend. However, given the
uncertainty in the long-range forecast it is too soon to determine
the timing, location, and magnitude of any potential impacts.
Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.9N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 102040
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 65.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102040
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.9 North, longitude 65.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, be near or over Hispaniola
on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. Some
weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the
potential for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, eastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next several
hours, and in the warning area in the Dominican Republic by early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101751
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...RAINBANDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.6 North, longitude 64.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight, be near or
over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the southeastern Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with
Hispaniola on Wednesday. Squalls with winds to tropical-storm
force are occuring over portions of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101451
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become better
organized since yesterday, and satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are at tropical storm strength. However, reports from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations indicate
that the system does not yet have a well-defined closed
circulation, with the wind and pressure fields more resembling an
open wave, The maximum flight-level winds at 925 mb were 35-40 kt,
and reliable SFMR wind estimates were near 30 kt. Based on these
data, the system remains at potential tropical cyclone status with
an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. A
strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the system
generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h with some decrease in
forward speed after 24 h. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
northwest with an further decrease in forward speed is likely while
the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. The track
guidance has changed little since the previous advisory. So, the
new NHC track also has little change, and it lies near the various
consensus models. Users are reminded that the average track errors
at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for strengthening before the
system reaches Hispaniola in about 24 h, although there may be dry
air entraining into the system in the southeastern quadrant. The
intensity forecast will follow the previous prediction in calling
for the disturbance to become a tropical storm before landfall,
followed by weakening to a depression. The remainder of the
intensity forecast has lower confidence due to possible land
interaction with Cuba and differences in the upper-level wind
forecasts among the various global models. The new intensity
forecast will call for slow intensification from 60 h onward,
similar to the previous one.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today or tonight Tropical
storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the
Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late
Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential
for mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The
greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and
southern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba later this week,
although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system
is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should
monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the
uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 17.3N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 18.5N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 19.6N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 20.7N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 27.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT
YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti and the Bahamas, as well as in eastern
and central Cuba, should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.8 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today and tonight,
be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday, and be near the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
However, the aircraft did not find a well-defined closed
circulation. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later today or tonight. Some weakening is likely while the system
interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and reach portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, where they could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101449
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.3N 66.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.5N 68.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.6N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.7N 73.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 63.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101147
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
800 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 63.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100850
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

The disturbance moved through the southern Leeward Islands a few
hours ago. Based on surface observations from the islands, the
system still does not have a well-defined circulation. Although
the satellite appearance shows some increase in organization, the
surface data suggest no significant strengthening has occurred thus
far. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt in agreement
with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later this morning and
should provide an updated intensity estimate, and also determine
whether the system has become a tropical cyclone.

The disturbance continues moving west-northwestward, or about
295/15 kt. The flow on the south side of a strong subtropical
ridge should maintain the west-northwestward track for the next
72 hours or so, with some slowing of forward speed by midweek.
Beyond that time, a turn toward the northwest with further
deceleration is likely while the system moves near the western
periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest
simple and corrected multi-model consensus tracks. Users are
reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles
and 200 miles, respectively.

Dynamical conditions appear to be conducive for intensification
during the next 24 hours or so, with low vertical shear and
pronounced upper-level outflow over the system. The main
hindrance for strengthening today and tonight appears to be some
dry mid-tropospheric air in the environment, as shown by the global
models. Since the projected track takes the disturbance or cyclone
over the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola, some weakening and
disruption of the circulation is likely in 36 hours or so. Later
in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows some increase
in westerly shear which could also inhibit strengthening. The
official intensity forecast closely follows the NOAA corrected
consensus forecast technique, HCCA. There is significant
uncertainty in 4-5 day intensity forecasts, however.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves
over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic
by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern
Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be
across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba later this week,
although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system
is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should
monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should
monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon
to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week
or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 15.7N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100849
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER.
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 62.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 62.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 62.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 62.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern Bahamas,
including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas,
Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.7 North, longitude 62.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near
or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later
this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts
with Hispaniola on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could
lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential
mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic,
northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas
beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100543
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

...DISTURBANCE PASSING NEAR DOMINICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque
eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique and Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.5 North, longitude 61.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to continue passing near the
southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, pass near or
over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight,
and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two
and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4
inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead
to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches.

Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
in the Lesser Antilles for the next several hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning areas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today, and in the Dominican Republic
by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and
northern Haiti beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across portions of
Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>